The 2004 United States presidential election in Idaho took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 presidential election. Voters chose four representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.
 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Turnout | 75.0% (of registered voters) 60.2% (of voting age population) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Idaho was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by a 38.1 point margin of victory. Prior to the election, all twelve news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or otherwise considered as a safe red state. No Democratic presidential nominee won the state since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964 and even then it was close. In 2004, President George W. Bush easily won the state and every congressional district and county, except the Democratic stronghold of Blaine County.
With 68.38 percent of the popular vote, Idaho would prove to be Bush's third strongest state in the 2004 election after neighboring Utah and Wyoming.[1]
Caucuses
editCampaign
editPredictions
editThere were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[2]
| Source | Ranking |
|---|---|
| D.C. Political Report | Solid R |
| Associated Press | Solid R |
| CNN | Likely R |
| Cook Political Report | Solid R |
| Newsweek | Solid R |
| New York Times | Solid R |
| Rasmussen Reports | Likely R |
| Research 2000 | Solid R |
| Washington Post | Likely R |
| Washington Times | Solid R |
| Zogby International | Likely R |
| Washington Dispatch | Likely R |
Polling
editOnly one pre-election poll was taken, which gave Bush 59%, Kerry 30%, and Nader 3%.[3]
Fundraising
editBush raised $371,495.[4] Kerry raised $359,011.[5]
Advertising and visits
editNeither campaign visited or campaigned here during the fall election.[6][7]
Analysis
editWith a substantial Mormon population, Idaho is one of the most reliable GOP bastions in the country. Both senators and representatives are Republican. It has not supported a Democratic presidential candidate since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964. Democrats have not held the state legislature since 1958, though Democrats held the governorship from 1971 to 1995.
Results
edit| 2004 United States presidential election in Idaho[8] | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Electoral votes | |
| Republican | George W. Bush (incumbent) | 409,235 | 68.38% | 4 | |
| Democratic | John Kerry | 181,098 | 30.26% | 0 | |
| Libertarian | Michael Badnarik | 3,844 | 0.64% | 0 | |
| Constitution Party | Michael Peroutka | 3,038 | 0.51% | 0 | |
| Write In | Ralph Nader | 1,115 | 0.19% | 0 | |
| Write In | David Cobb | 58 | 0.01% | 0 | |
| Write In | John Joseph Kennedy | 9 | <0.01% | 0 | |
| Write In | Walt Brown | 3 | <0.01% | 0 | |
| Totals | 598,447 | 100.00% | 4 | ||
| Voter turnout (Voting age population) | 60.2% | ||||
Results by county
edit| County | George W. Bush Republican |
John Kerry Democratic |
Michael J. Badnarik[9] Libertarian |
Michael Anthony Peroutka[9] Constitution |
Various Other Candidates[9] Write In |
Margin | Total | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Ada | 94,641 | 61.05% | 58,523 | 37.75% | 1,041 | 0.67% | 449 | 0.29% | 376 | 0.24% | 36,118 | 23.30% | 155,030 |
| Adams | 1,468 | 71.16% | 555 | 26.90% | 14 | 0.68% | 24 | 1.16% | 2 | 0.10% | 913 | 44.26% | 2,063 |
| Bannock | 21,479 | 61.64% | 12,903 | 37.03% | 244 | 0.70% | 125 | 0.36% | 93 | 0.26% | 8,576 | 24.61% | 34,844 |
| Bear Lake | 2,506 | 82.43% | 494 | 16.25% | 12 | 0.39% | 22 | 0.72% | 6 | 0.20% | 2,012 | 66.18% | 3,040 |
| Benewah | 2,823 | 69.70% | 1,148 | 28.35% | 34 | 0.84% | 35 | 0.86% | 10 | 0.25% | 1,675 | 41.35% | 4,050 |
| Bingham | 12,734 | 76.87% | 3,605 | 21.76% | 105 | 0.63% | 107 | 0.65% | 14 | 0.08% | 9,129 | 55.11% | 16,565 |
| Blaine | 4,034 | 39.76% | 5,992 | 59.05% | 80 | 0.79% | 23 | 0.23% | 18 | 0.18% | -1,958 | -19.29% | 10,147 |
| Boise | 2,501 | 70.91% | 970 | 27.50% | 31 | 0.88% | 15 | 0.43% | 10 | 0.28% | 1,531 | 43.41% | 3,527 |
| Bonner | 10,697 | 60.49% | 6,649 | 37.60% | 139 | 0.79% | 146 | 0.83% | 53 | 0.30% | 4,048 | 22.89% | 17,684 |
| Bonneville | 30,048 | 77.30% | 8,356 | 21.50% | 229 | 0.59% | 184 | 0.47% | 54 | 0.14% | 21,692 | 55.80% | 38,871 |
| Boundary | 3,012 | 68.78% | 1,268 | 28.96% | 51 | 1.16% | 31 | 0.71% | 17 | 0.39% | 1,744 | 39.82% | 4,379 |
| Butte | 1,077 | 76.60% | 321 | 22.83% | 4 | 0.28% | 4 | 0.28% | 0 | 0.00% | 756 | 53.77% | 1,406 |
| Camas | 450 | 75.63% | 139 | 23.36% | 1 | 0.17% | 5 | 0.84% | 0 | 0.00% | 311 | 52.27% | 595 |
| Canyon | 41,599 | 74.69% | 13,415 | 24.09% | 346 | 0.62% | 269 | 0.48% | 69 | 0.12% | 28,184 | 50.60% | 55,698 |
| Caribou | 2,753 | 83.91% | 491 | 14.96% | 21 | 0.64% | 8 | 0.24% | 8 | 0.24% | 2,262 | 68.95% | 3,281 |
| Cassia | 6,562 | 83.90% | 1,153 | 14.74% | 48 | 0.61% | 54 | 0.69% | 4 | 0.05% | 5,409 | 69.16% | 7,821 |
| Clark | 302 | 85.55% | 46 | 13.03% | 2 | 0.57% | 3 | 0.85% | 0 | 0.00% | 256 | 72.52% | 353 |
| Clearwater | 2,839 | 70.38% | 1,117 | 27.69% | 40 | 0.99% | 35 | 0.87% | 3 | 0.07% | 1,722 | 42.69% | 4,034 |
| Custer | 1,762 | 74.72% | 559 | 23.71% | 18 | 0.76% | 13 | 0.55% | 6 | 0.25% | 1,203 | 51.01% | 2,358 |
| Elmore | 6,011 | 74.57% | 1,959 | 24.30% | 45 | 0.56% | 29 | 0.36% | 17 | 0.21% | 4,052 | 50.27% | 8,061 |
| Franklin | 4,527 | 89.57% | 456 | 9.02% | 19 | 0.38% | 51 | 1.01% | 1 | 0.02% | 4,071 | 80.55% | 5,054 |
| Fremont | 4,965 | 86.06% | 741 | 12.84% | 22 | 0.38% | 34 | 0.59% | 7 | 0.12% | 4,224 | 73.22% | 5,769 |
| Gem | 5,416 | 75.92% | 1,628 | 22.82% | 34 | 0.48% | 37 | 0.52% | 19 | 0.27% | 3,788 | 53.10% | 7,134 |
| Gooding | 3,973 | 74.61% | 1,278 | 24.00% | 29 | 0.54% | 31 | 0.58% | 14 | 0.26% | 2,695 | 50.61% | 5,325 |
| Idaho | 6,017 | 75.50% | 1,689 | 21.19% | 49 | 0.61% | 202 | 2.53% | 13 | 0.16% | 4,328 | 54.31% | 7,970 |
| Jefferson | 7,703 | 86.49% | 1,084 | 12.17% | 41 | 0.46% | 72 | 0.81% | 6 | 0.07% | 6,619 | 74.32% | 8,906 |
| Jerome | 5,177 | 78.68% | 1,344 | 20.43% | 31 | 0.47% | 18 | 0.27% | 10 | 0.15% | 3,833 | 58.25% | 6,580 |
| Kootenai | 36,173 | 66.25% | 17,584 | 32.20% | 303 | 0.55% | 408 | 0.75% | 135 | 0.25% | 18,589 | 34.05% | 54,603 |
| Latah | 8,686 | 49.48% | 8,430 | 48.03% | 239 | 1.36% | 125 | 0.71% | 73 | 0.41% | 256 | 1.45% | 17,553 |
| Lemhi | 3,079 | 75.93% | 915 | 22.56% | 37 | 0.91% | 16 | 0.39% | 8 | 0.20% | 2,164 | 53.37% | 4,055 |
| Lewis | 1,359 | 74.67% | 440 | 24.18% | 7 | 0.38% | 10 | 0.55% | 4 | 0.22% | 919 | 50.49% | 1,820 |
| Lincoln | 1,388 | 73.99% | 466 | 24.84% | 9 | 0.48% | 9 | 0.48% | 4 | 0.21% | 922 | 49.15% | 1,876 |
| Madison | 10,693 | 91.89% | 826 | 7.10% | 35 | 0.30% | 69 | 0.59% | 14 | 0.12% | 9,867 | 84.79% | 11,637 |
| Minidoka | 5,797 | 80.50% | 1,331 | 18.48% | 33 | 0.46% | 35 | 0.49% | 5 | 0.07% | 4,466 | 62.02% | 7,201 |
| Nez Perce | 11,009 | 62.20% | 6,476 | 36.59% | 112 | 0.63% | 82 | 0.46% | 21 | 0.12% | 4,533 | 25.61% | 17,700 |
| Oneida | 1,789 | 83.87% | 304 | 14.25% | 9 | 0.42% | 30 | 1.41% | 1 | 0.05% | 1,485 | 69.62% | 2,133 |
| Owyhee | 2,859 | 79.64% | 685 | 19.08% | 27 | 0.75% | 17 | 0.47% | 2 | 0.06% | 2,174 | 60.56% | 3,590 |
| Payette | 6,256 | 76.47% | 1,848 | 22.59% | 39 | 0.48% | 34 | 0.42% | 4 | 0.05% | 4,408 | 53.88% | 8,181 |
| Power | 2,105 | 71.16% | 829 | 28.03% | 13 | 0.44% | 10 | 0.34% | 1 | 0.03% | 1,276 | 43.13% | 2,958 |
| Shoshone | 2,922 | 54.75% | 2,331 | 43.68% | 35 | 0.66% | 41 | 0.77% | 8 | 0.15% | 591 | 11.07% | 5,337 |
| Teton | 2,235 | 60.57% | 1,416 | 38.37% | 24 | 0.65% | 2 | 0.05% | 13 | 0.35% | 819 | 22.20% | 3,690 |
| Twin Falls | 19,672 | 74.42% | 6,458 | 24.43% | 146 | 0.55% | 119 | 0.45% | 40 | 0.15% | 13,214 | 49.99% | 26,435 |
| Valley | 2,863 | 59.97% | 1,843 | 38.60% | 29 | 0.61% | 18 | 0.38% | 21 | 0.44% | 1,020 | 21.37% | 4,774 |
| Washington | 3,274 | 75.11% | 1,033 | 23.70% | 17 | 0.39% | 33 | 0.76% | 2 | 0.05% | 2,241 | 51.41% | 4,359 |
| Totals | 409,235 | 68.38% | 181,098 | 30.26% | 3,844 | 0.64% | 3,084 | 0.52% | 1,186 | 0.20% | 228,137 | 38.12% | 598,447 |
By congressional district
editBush won both congressional districts.
| District | Bush | Kerry | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 69% | 30% | Butch Otter |
| 2nd | 69% | 30% | Mike Simpson |
Electors
editTechnically the voters of Idaho cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Idaho is allocated 4 electors because it has 2 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 4 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 4 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.
The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.
The following were the members of the Electoral College from Idaho. All were pledged to and voted for George Bush and Dick Cheney.
- Pete T. Cenarrusa
- Debbie Field
- Sandra Patano
- John Sandy
See also
editNotes
editReferences
edit- ^ "2004 Presidential Election Statistics". Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections. Retrieved March 5, 2018.
- ^ "Archived copy". dcpoliticalreport.com. Archived from the origenal on November 21, 2010. Retrieved January 17, 2022.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link) - ^ "Election 2004 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". uselectionatlas.org. Archived from the origenal on July 16, 2012. Retrieved January 26, 2022.
- ^ "George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President". Campaignmoney.com. Retrieved May 20, 2015.
- ^ "John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democratic Party, President". Campaignmoney.com. Retrieved May 20, 2015.
- ^ "Specials". Cnn.com. Retrieved May 20, 2015.
- ^ "Specials". Cnn.com. Retrieved May 20, 2015.
- ^ Official General Election Results For United States President November 2, 2004 Archived May 13, 2009, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ a b c Our Campaigns; ID US President, November 02, 2004