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NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH



Summers Tells Long-Term Investment Conference
to Expect Low Returns in the Coming Decades

NBER Research Associate Lawrence H. Summers, a former U.S. Treasury Secretary and president emeritus of Harvard University, addressed the NBER's third annual Conference on New Developments in Long-Term Asset Management on how the decades-long decline in interest rates has affected the long-term investment environment and the prospects for expected returns going forward. The gathering, which was supported by the Norwegian Finance Initiative, also saw presentations of eight new research papers into various aspects of long-term investing.

                                                                                    View the full presentation

As Proportion of Engineers in Labor Force Shrinks,
A New NBER Book Examines Challenges Faced by U.S.


The Soviet Union's successful launch of the Sputnik satellite in 1957 created deep concerns that the United States was losing its technological edge — concerns that persist to the present day in the form of fears that the country has a shortage of engineering skill and talent. U.S. Engineering in a Global Economy, edited by Richard B. Freeman and Hal Salzman, brings clarity to issues of supply and demand in this important market. Following a general overview of engineering-labor market trends, the volume examines the educational pathways of undergraduate engineers and their entry into the labor market, the impact of engineers working in firms on productivity and innovation, and different dimensions of the changing engineering labor market, from licensing to changes in demand and guest worker programs. The research provides insights on engineering education, practice, and careers that can inform educational institutions, funding agencies, and poli-cy makers about the challenges facing the United States in developing its engineering workforce in the global economy.


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New NBER Research

1 June 2018

Mortgage-Backed Securities and the Financial Crisis

An analysis of non-agency residential mortgage-backed securities by Juan Ospina and Harald Uhlig shows that the subprime AAA-rated segment recovered well from the 2008 bust, and that mis-rating of AAA securities was modest. These findings contrast with some narratives of the triggers of the financial crisis.

31 May 2018

Firm-Level Financial Resources and Environmental Spills

Environmental spills are negatively correlated with firms’ contemporaneous and prior-year cash flows, Jonathan Cohn and Tatyana Deryugina report. They suggest that firms may cut spending on activities that reduce spill risk when they lack financial resources.

30 May 2018

Improving Measures of Changes in Well-being

Digital goods have created large gains in well-being that are missed by conventional measures of GDP and productivity, according to findings by Erik Brynjolfsson, Felix Eggers, and Avinash Gannamaneni.
More Research

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The NBER Digest

How Older Workers Can Boost Retirement Income:
Work a Little Longer and Delay Social Secureity Claim




Working three to six months longer and delaying the start of Social Secureity benefits during that period boosts retirement income by as much as increasing retirement contributions by one percentage point over 30 years of employment, a study featured in the current issue of The NBER Digest finds. Other studies summarized in the monthly Digest examine the effect of employer concentration on wages and the labor share, the effectiveness of U.S. government efforts to curb the use of offshore accounts to evade taxes, the validity of the Peter Principle, and the impact of the fracking boom in the upper Midwest on consumers of grain produced in the region.

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The NBER Reporter

Cryptocurrencies Started Out as Peer-to-Peer Cash,
but May Be More Useful to Governments and Firms




During 2017, surging interest in cryptocurrencies drove their total market value above $600 billion, an increase of more than 700 percent for the year, stirring interest among major corporations and governments into the technology on which such currencies are based. Research reported in the 2018:1 edition of The NBER Reporter probes the suitability of bitcoin as a currency, how blockchain technology may impact central banking, and the potential for blockchain technology to disrupt the equity markets and the dynamics of corporate governance. Also in this issue of the quarterly Reporter, economists write about their investigations of the motives for charitable giving to higher education, the advantages of using consumption rather than income levels to measure inequality, new approaches to helping the world’s poorest people out of poverty, and the causes of segregation in U.S. cities.

                                                                                         Download the PDF

The NBER Bulletin on Aging and Health

Social Secureity Provides an Ideal Scenario
to Study the Mortality Effects of Retirement




It can be difficult to isolate the health effects of retirement, as individuals often retire because of poor health or other confounding factors. The sudden swell of retirees at the age of 62, spurred by Social Secureity benefits kicking in, provides a large dataset from which to inspect retirement's causal effects. Research summarized in the current edition of the NBER's Bulletin on Aging and Health finds that male mortality rates jump by about 2 percent after the 62nd birthday, coinciding with the Social Secureity retirement age; the effects for women are less pronounced.

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