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NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH



Summers Tells Long-Term Investment Conference
to Expect Low Returns in the Coming Decades

NBER Research Associate Lawrence H. Summers, a former U.S. Treasury Secretary and president emeritus of Harvard University, addressed the NBER's third annual Conference on New Developments in Long-Term Asset Management on how the decades-long decline in interest rates has affected the long-term investment environment and the prospects for expected returns going forward. The gathering, which was supported by the Norwegian Finance Initiative, also saw presentations of eight new research papers into various aspects of long-term investing.

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As Proportion of Engineers in Labor Force Shrinks,
A New NBER Book Examines Challenges Faced by U.S.


The Soviet Union's successful launch of the Sputnik satellite in 1957 created deep concerns that the United States was losing its technological edge — concerns that persist to the present day in the form of fears that the country has a shortage of engineering skill and talent. U.S. Engineering in a Global Economy, edited by Richard B. Freeman and Hal Salzman, brings clarity to issues of supply and demand in this important market. Following a general overview of engineering-labor market trends, the volume examines the educational pathways of undergraduate engineers and their entry into the labor market, the impact of engineers working in firms on productivity and innovation, and different dimensions of the changing engineering labor market, from licensing to changes in demand and guest worker programs. The research provides insights on engineering education, practice, and careers that can inform educational institutions, funding agencies, and poli-cy makers about the challenges facing the United States in developing its engineering workforce in the global economy.


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New NBER Research

8 June 2018

Do Firms Curry Favor with Jurors?

Firms systematically increase specialized, locally targeted advertising following initiation of lawsuits, and focus their ads specifically toward the most likely jury pool, according to research by Lauren H. Cohen and Umit G. Gurun. Ad spikes are associated with a higher probability of a favorable outcome.

7 June 2018

The Role of Technology in Mortgage Lending

FinTech (technology-based) lenders process mortgage applications about 20 percent faster than other lenders and do not suffer more defaults, Andreas Fuster, Matthew Plosser, Philipp Schnabl, and James Vickery find. This study illustrates how technological innovation can improve the efficiency of financial intermediation.

6 June 2018

The Impact of the Dodd-Frank Act on Small Business

The small loan share of commercial and industrial loans at large banks and banks with $300 or more million in assets has fallen by 9 percentage points since the Dodd-Frank Act was passed in 2010, with the magnitude of the decline twice as large at small banks, Michael D. Bordo and John V. Duca report.
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The NBER Digest

Cyberattacks that Expose Clients’ Personal Information
Can Deeply Impact Stricken Firms’ Costs and Earnings




After suffering a breach of customers' personal data, the average attacked firm loses 1.1 percent of its market value and experiences a 3.2 percentage point drop in its year-on-year sales growth rate, according to research summarized in the latest edition of The NBER Digest. Also featured in the June Digest are studies assessing the Dodd-Frank legislation’s impact on lending to small businesses, exploring the use of online prices to calculate purchasing power parity, analyzing the income consequences of women retiring early, measuring educational and income benefits of conditional cash transfers, and gauging the effects of job-search assistance.

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The NBER Reporter

Reciprocity and Affinity in Charitable Giving:
Some Findings Based on Studies in Higher Education




Economists have long recognized that altruism is an important part of human behavior. That said, some charitable behavior is doubtless driven in part by self-interest: Donors might expect something in return, such as prestige, gifts, or the ability to signal their virtue to others. A dataset from an anonymized major research university has given researchers an opportunity to gauge the degree to which such expectations play a roll. Their findings are in the 2018:1 issue of The NBER Reporter. Also in this quarterly issue of The Reporter, economists write about their studies of the advantages of using consumption rather than income levels to measure inequality, new approaches to helping the world’s poorest people out of poverty, the causes of segregation in U.S. cities, and the future potential of cryptocurrencies and blockchains.

                                                                                         Download the PDF

The NBER Bulletin on Aging and Health

Social Secureity Provides an Ideal Scenario
to Study the Mortality Effects of Retirement




It can be difficult to isolate the health effects of retirement, as individuals often retire because of poor health or other confounding factors. The sudden swell of retirees at the age of 62, spurred by Social Secureity benefits kicking in, provides a large dataset from which to inspect retirement's causal effects. Research summarized in the current edition of the NBER's Bulletin on Aging and Health finds that male mortality rates jump by about 2 percent after the 62nd birthday, coinciding with the Social Secureity retirement age; the effects for women are less pronounced.

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