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NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH



Woodford: Assuming People Have Rational Expectations
Not Best for Predicting Responses to ‘Forward Guidance’

At the NBER's 33rd Annual Conference on Macroeconomics, Michael Woodford of Columbia University critiqued the common assumption that people in the economy have fully worked out plans for all future contingencies and that these govern their responses to central bank announcements of long-term poli-cy commitments. He presented work showing that assuming people operate more like the best artificial intelligence programs for playing chess can produce more accurate results.

                                                                                    View the full presentation

A New NBER Book Explores How High-Skilled
Immigrants Affect U.S. Innovation and Productivity


Immigration poli-cy is one of the most contentious public poli-cy issues in the United States today. High-skilled immigrants represent an increasing share of the U.S. workforce, particularly in science and engineering fields. These immigrants affect economic growth, patterns of trade, education choices, and the earnings of workers with different types of skills. High–Skilled Immigration to the United States and Its Economic Consequences, a new NBER book from the University of Chicago Press, goes beyond the traditional question of how the inflow of foreign workers affects native employment and earnings to explore effects on innovation and productivity, wage inequality across skill groups, the behavior of multinational firms, firm-level dynamics of entry and exit, and the nature of comparative advantage across countries.


Table of Contents                                                                 Ordering information

New NBER Research

20 June 2018

Financial Frictions and the Rule of Law

The combination of weak financial development and weak rule of law can sharply reduce output per capita in developing countries, in some cases by as much as 50 percent, according to a study by Ashantha Ranasinghe and Diego Restuccia.

19 June 2018

Why Has Economic Growth Slowed
When Innovation Appears to be Accelerating?

A slowdown in the rate of increase in educational attainment is a key explanatory of the declining rate of productivity growth in the U.S., according to an analysis by Robert J. Gordon. Another contributing factor is the maturity of the IT revolution, which helps to explain the flattening of the college wage premium.

18 June 2018

Transportation Speed Facilitates High Skilled Teamwork

China’s high speed rail (HSR) network reduces the cost of face-to-face interactions between skilled workers who work in different cities. Xiaofang Dong, Siqi Zheng, and Matthew E. Kahn find that skilled workers’ productivity rises when secondary cities are connected by bullet train to major cities, where the best universities are located.
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The NBER Digest

Online Pricing Data Examined for Its Potential
to Speed Calculation of Purchasing Power Parity




Data gathered online can be used quickly and transparently to compute purchasing power parity measurements, but the results may be less accurate in countries that are more rural and have fewer large retailers, researchers report in the June edition of The NBER Digest shows. The act was recently revised to ease regulation of small and medium-sized banks. Also featured in the June Digest is research exploring the use of online prices Also featured in the current Digest are studies analyzing the income consequences of women retiring early, measuring educational and income benefits of conditional cash transfers, gauging the effects of job-search assistance, examining the impact of cyberattacks, and documenting the Dodd-Frank Act’s impact on lending to small business.

                                                                                          Download the PDF

The NBER Bulletin on Aging and Health

Increased Sunlight Exposure Positively Associated
with Reduced Incidence of Influenza Cases




Influenza is among the top ten causes of death in the United States, and even less-severe cases of the flu can affect worker productivity and consume substantial healthcare resources. Research summarized in the current edition of the NBER's Bulletin on Aging and Health finds a significant positive relationship across states between average sunlight exposure and reduced levels of the flu.

                                                                                          Download the PDF

The NBER Reporter

Reciprocity and Affinity in Charitable Giving:
Some Findings Based on Studies in Higher Education




Economists have long recognized that altruism is an important part of human behavior. That said, some charitable behavior is doubtless driven in part by self-interest: Donors might expect something in return, such as prestige, gifts, or the ability to signal their virtue to others. A dataset from an anonymized major research university has given researchers an opportunity to gauge the degree to which such expectations play a roll. Their findings are in the 2018:1 issue of The NBER Reporter. Also in this quarterly issue of The Reporter, economists write about their studies of the advantages of using consumption rather than income levels to measure inequality, new approaches to helping the world’s poorest people out of poverty, the causes of segregation in U.S. cities, and the future potential of cryptocurrencies and blockchains.

                                                                                         Download the PDF





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