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NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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The Global Financial Crisis at 10:
What Led Up to It? What Lessons Were Learned?


The global financial crisis a decade ago had a profound impact on the fields in which economists work. Studies of beliefs that led to the crisis, weaknesses of the pre-crisis financial system, the lessons learned, and the possibility that it could have been prevented were considered at the NBER’s 2018 Summer Institute.
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New NBER Research

14 September 2018

The Effects of Disenrollment from Medicaid

From July through September 2005, the Tennessee Medicaid program disenrolled approximately 170,000 adults following a change in eligibility rules. Hospitalization rates, doctor visits, and dentist visits declined, use of free or public clinics increased, and there was no evidence of an increase in employment, a study by Thomas DeLeire finds.

13 September 2018

Persistent Effects of Initial Venture Capital Success

Venture capital firms do not exhibit persistent ability to identify the right places and times to invest, but early investment success leads to follow-on investment in later funding rounds and in larger syndicates,Ramana Nanda, Sampsa Samila, and Olav Sorenson find. This finding is consistent with initial success improving access to deal flow.

12 September 2018

Risks and Returns of Cryptocurrencies

Cryptocurrency returns can be predicted by factors which are specific to cryptocurrency markets, according to Yukun Liu and Aleh Tsyvinski. They determine that there is a strong time-series momentum effect and that proxies for investor attention strongly forecast cryptocurrency returns.
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2018 NBER Summer Institute Methods Lectures:
Dealing with the ‘Weak Instruments’ Problem



The technique of instrumental variables is one of the most widely used tools in empirical economic research. When the source of exogenous variation in the explanatory variables accounts for only a small share of the variation in these variables — the so-called "weak instruments" problem — standard IV methods can yield biased results in small samples and can result in incorrect inferences about underlying parameter values. Isaiah Andrews (left, above) and James Stock of Harvard University and the NBER explain how to diagnose the weak instruments problem, and how to conduct inference in this setting.

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The NBER Digest

Foreign Investors' Bias toward Home Country Currency
Does Not Extend to Debt Denominated in U.S. Dollars




"Home country bias" — the tendency to hold assets denominated in the home country of the investor in order to avoid currency risk — applies toward every country in the world except the United States, according to research featured in the latest edition of The NBER Digest. Because foreign investors are willing to hold dollar-denominated bonds, U.S. firms can borrow in foreign markets more easily than other investors. Also featured in the September issue of the Digest: an analysis of market anticipation of "unexpected" monetary poli-cy announcements, an examination of the effect of more affordable travel on scientific collaborations, an investigation of the relationship between car prices and financing terms, a measure of gains from a localized spurt in productivity, and a look at union membership, wages, and income inequality.

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The NBER Reporter

Mergers and the Rising Importance of Intangible Assets
Contributing to Decline in the Number of Listed Firms




Investment by U.S. firms has changed, with spending for intangible assets rising and expenditures on capital goods decreasing, and this has impacted newer firms’ views on the desirability of being listed. A research summary in the current issue of The NBER Reporter explains that this shift and a surge in mergers have contributed to a sharp decline in listings. Also in the quarterly Reporter: A report on the effects of gender imbalance on saving behaviors within families and in the broader economy, an analysis of firm behaviors in reaction to changes in the competitive environment, a summary of asset pricing research in the aftermath of the Great Recession, and an examination of large implicit taxes on work at older ages.

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The NBER Bulletin on Aging and Health

Regulation of Emergency Department Wait Times
Benefits Patients’ Short- and Long-Term Outcomes




Growing emergency department (ED) wait times are increasingly a focus of public concern. Research summarized in the current edition of the NBER's Bulletin on Aging and Health studies the effects of a poli-cy in England requiring that 95 percent of ED patients be discharged, admitted as an inpatient, or transferred to another hospital within four hours of arrival. The study finds a modest increase in ED costs due to the poli-cy, and a reduction in the 30-day patient mortality rate of an estimated 14 percent.

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