Tropical Storm IKE
ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM IKE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
0900 UTC TUE SEP 02 2008
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X X X 1 2
TROP DEPRESSION 1 2 2 1 3 2 3
TROPICAL STORM 82 58 32 26 23 20 23
HURRICANE 17 40 67 72 74 77 73
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 16 36 48 42 35 31 27
HUR CAT 2 1 3 14 19 21 22 19
HUR CAT 3 X 1 4 9 14 18 17
HUR CAT 4 X 1 1 2 4 6 7
HUR CAT 5 X X X X 1 1 1
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 55KT 60KT 70KT 75KT 80KT 85KT 90KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9)
ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14)
GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17)
SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)
SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 16(23)
MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10)
MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 15(26)
GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13)
GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8)
CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
CAMAGUEY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9)
LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
LES CAYES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11)
CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 13(21)
PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7)
PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17)
SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)
SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
PONCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 6(17)
PONCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8)
PONCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 6(19)
SAN JUAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9)
SAN JUAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 5(19)
SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8)
SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 3(15)
SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6)
SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) 3(17)
SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7)
SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 2(13)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) 2(15)
BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6)
BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 1(11)
ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7)
AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7)
DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH
NNNN
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