Hurricane IKE
ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE IKE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1500 UTC WED SEP 10 2008
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9
NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS
...90 MPH...150 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X X 1 55 73
TROP DEPRESSION X X X X 4 20 16
TROPICAL STORM 1 2 2 3 26 12 6
HURRICANE 99 98 98 97 69 13 6
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 23 19 11 12 25 2 X
HUR CAT 2 59 43 24 20 16 2 1
HUR CAT 3 16 32 46 38 18 5 3
HUR CAT 4 1 4 15 23 8 3 2
HUR CAT 5 1 1 2 4 2 1 X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 90KT 95KT 105KT 110KT 105KT 35KT 25KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
MARATHON FL 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
KEY WEST FL 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
MARCO ISLAND 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
FT MYERS FL 34 4 X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
VENICE FL 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
TAMPA FL 34 2 X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
APALACHICOLA 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 3 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
PENSACOLA FL 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 3 10(13) 6(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
MOBILE AL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
GULFPORT MS 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 4(12) 3(15) X(15) 1(16)
BURAS LA 34 1 7( 8) 13(21) 7(28) 3(31) X(31) 1(32)
BURAS LA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
BURAS LA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 5 29(34) 20(54) 2(56) 2(58) 1(59) X(59)
GFMX 280N 890W 50 X 4( 4) 11(15) 3(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 8(21) 6(27) 1(28) X(28)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 1 14(15) 35(50) 16(66) 4(70) X(70) X(70)
GFMX 280N 910W 50 X 1( 1) 15(16) 14(30) 3(33) X(33) X(33)
GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) 2(16) 1(17) X(17)
BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 10(18) 8(26) 2(28) X(28)
BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 15(26) 11(37) 2(39) X(39)
NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 1(12) X(12)
NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 X 3( 3) 24(27) 34(61) 14(75) 2(77) X(77)
GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 25(30) 15(45) 2(47) X(47)
GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 12(25) 1(26) 1(27)
SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 3(18) 1(19)
SHREVEPORT LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 27(48) 4(52) 1(53)
PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 1(20) 1(21)
PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11) X(11)
GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 22(26) 34(60) 4(64) 1(65)
GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 26(31) 2(33) 1(34)
GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 2(19) 1(20)
HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 38(53) 5(58) 1(59)
HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 23(26) 3(29) X(29)
HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) X(13)
AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 32(36) 11(47) 2(49)
AUSTIN TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 6(19) X(19)
AUSTIN TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6)
SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 32(36) 11(47) 2(49)
SAN ANTONIO TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 7(19) 1(20)
SAN ANTONIO TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7)
FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 20(24) 38(62) 5(67) 1(68)
FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 30(36) 4(40) 1(41)
FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 3(22) 1(23)
GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 31(39) 34(73) 3(76) 1(77)
GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 32(47) 4(51) 1(52)
GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 21(27) 3(30) 1(31)
PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 44(63) 7(70) 1(71)
PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 29(34) 6(40) 2(42)
PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 3(22) 2(24)
CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 36(49) 11(60) 2(62)
CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) 5(32) 1(33)
CORPUS CHRISTI 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 5(17) X(17)
GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 26(30) 33(63) 7(70) 2(72)
GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 29(40) 6(46) 2(48)
GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) 3(25) 1(26)
BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 26(38) 9(47) 2(49)
BROWNSVILLE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 4(19) 1(20)
BROWNSVILLE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9)
GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) 19(41) 7(48) 2(50)
GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) 5(22) X(22)
GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) 1(11)
LA PESCO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 4(15) 1(16)
LA PESCO MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6)
LA PESCO MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7)
TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
MERIDA MX 34 3 3( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11)
COZUMEL MX 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
HAVANA 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ISLE OF PINES 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
NNNN
NHC on Facebook
Twitter
YouTube
NHC Blog: