Hurricane IKE
ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE IKE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 45
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
0900 UTC FRI SEP 12 2008
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.7
NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS
...105 MPH...165 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X 2 20 50 NA NA
TROP DEPRESSION X 1 10 53 46 NA NA
TROPICAL STORM X 14 73 27 4 NA NA
HURRICANE 99 85 15 1 X NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 10 25 10 X X NA NA
HUR CAT 2 54 29 2 X X NA NA
HUR CAT 3 34 29 3 X X NA NA
HUR CAT 4 1 3 1 X X NA NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 95KT 100KT 55KT 35KT 30KT NA NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
GFMX 290N 870W 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MOBILE AL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GULFPORT MS 34 10 4(14) 1(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
BURAS LA 34 40 4(44) X(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) X(45)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
JACKSON MS 34 1 4( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 29 9(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
GFMX 280N 910W 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
GFMX 280N 910W 64 30 X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30)
BATON ROUGE LA 34 30 15(45) 2(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48) X(48)
BATON ROUGE LA 50 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
NEW IBERIA LA 34 54 16(70) 2(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72)
NEW IBERIA LA 50 5 11(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
NEW IBERIA LA 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
GFMX 280N 930W 50 98 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
GFMX 280N 930W 64 78 14(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92)
SHREVEPORT LA 34 2 18(20) 21(41) 8(49) X(49) X(49) X(49)
SHREVEPORT LA 50 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11)
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 48 40(88) 5(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93)
PORT ARTHUR TX 50 6 55(61) 10(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71)
PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X 28(28) 12(40) 2(42) X(42) X(42) X(42)
GALVESTON TX 34 54 40(94) 4(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98)
GALVESTON TX 50 13 71(84) 7(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) X(92)
GALVESTON TX 64 1 50(51) 11(62) 1(63) X(63) X(63) X(63)
HOUSTON TX 34 26 57(83) 10(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94)
HOUSTON TX 50 2 61(63) 15(78) 2(80) X(80) X(80) X(80)
HOUSTON TX 64 X 19(19) 17(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37) X(37)
AUSTIN TX 34 3 17(20) 11(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32)
AUSTIN TX 50 X 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
SAN ANTONIO TX 34 2 11(13) 7(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)
SAN ANTONIO TX 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
FREEPORT TX 34 45 44(89) 4(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93)
FREEPORT TX 50 10 65(75) 6(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81)
FREEPORT TX 64 X 37(37) 11(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48)
GFMX 280N 950W 34 72 22(94) 1(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95)
GFMX 280N 950W 50 43 37(80) 1(81) 1(82) X(82) X(82) X(82)
GFMX 280N 950W 64 5 40(45) 2(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47)
PORT O CONNOR 34 22 42(64) 4(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68)
PORT O CONNOR 50 2 28(30) 4(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34)
PORT O CONNOR 64 X 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
CORPUS CHRISTI 34 7 18(25) 4(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29)
CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
GFMX 270N 960W 34 33 21(54) 2(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56)
GFMX 270N 960W 50 4 10(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
GFMX 270N 960W 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BROWNSVILLE TX 34 5 5(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
GFMX 250N 960W 34 6 6(12) X(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
$$
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