Abstract: The sensitivity of coupled hurricane intensity forecasts to ocean model initialization is explored using a combination of idealized experiments and Observing System Experiments (OSEs). Earlier results demonstrated that the accuracy of the ocean response to hurricane forcing is very sensitive to the accuracy of ocean model initialization. This earlier work has now been extended by developing the capability to initialize the HYCOM-HWRF prediction model with ocean analyses generated by the HYCOM-based in-house ocean data assimilation system at AOML. This presentation will emphasize the set of idealized ocean experiments conducted to quantitatively assess the impact of anomalously warm ocean conditions present during the 2017 and 2018 hurricane seasons, and also the impact of barrier layers resulting from the Amazon-Orinoco river runoff. It will also emphasize ocean OSEs conducted during the same years to quantitatively assess the impact of individual components of the ocean observing system. Results from some initial HYCOM-HWRF intensity forecasts that were initialized by analyses generated from these ocean experiments will be presented; however, a comprehensive summary of the HYCOM-HWRF experiments will be presented by Matthieu Le Henaff at his seminar scheduled on the following day (Tuesday, Nov. 5 at 2 pm).
