Skip to main content

Analyzing Passing Sequences for the Prediction of Goal-Scoring Opportunities

  • Conference paper
  • First Online:
Machine Learning and Data Mining for Sports Analytics (MLSA 2022)

Abstract

Over the last years, more and more sport related data are being collected, stored, and analyzed to give valuable insights. Football is no exception to this trend. An important way of identifying a team’s “style” of play is through analyzing passing sequences. However, passing sequences either concentrate on the specific players involved or the structure of passes and ignore where these sequences took place. In this paper, we focus on identifying frequent passing zone subsequences that lead to created or conceded goal scoring opportunities. We partition the pitch into a set of disjoint zones and apply sequential pattern mining. Our experimental study on the 2020/21 Danish Superliga season shows that our method is able to predict goal scoring opportunities better than random subsequences that occurred, in median, 99.5% of the cases.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Subscribe and save

Springer+ Basic
$34.99 /Month
  • Get 10 units per month
  • Download Article/Chapter or eBook
  • 1 Unit = 1 Article or 1 Chapter
  • Cancel anytime
Subscribe now

Buy Now

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 54.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 69.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. Barbosa, A., Ribeiro, P., Dutra, I.: Similarity of football players using passing sequences. In: Brefeld, U., Davis, J., Van Haaren, J., Zimmermann, A. (eds.) MLSA 2021. CCIS, vol. 1571, pp. 51–61. Springer, Cham (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-02044-5_5

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  2. ChryonHego: TRACAB optical tracking product information sheet. Technical report, ChryronHego (2019). https://chyronhego.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/TRACAB-PI-sheet.pdf

  3. Fernandez-Navarro, J., Fradua, L., Zubillaga, A., Ford, P.R., McRobert, A.P.: Attacking and defensive styles of play in soccer: analysis of Spanish and English elite teams. J. Sports Sci. 34(24), 2195–2204 (2016)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. Gregory, S.: Expected Goals in Context (2017). https://www.statsperform.com/resource/expected-goals-in-context/

  5. Hernanz, J.: How good is Driblab’s Expected Goals (xG) model? (2021). https://www.driblab.com/analysis-team/how-good-is-driblabs-expected-goals-xg-model/

  6. Hughes, M., Franks, I.: Analysis of passing sequences, shots and goals in soccer. J. Sports Sci. 23(5), 509–514 (2005)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Kim, J., James, N., Parmar, N., Ali, B., Vučković, G.: The attacking process in football: a taxonomy for classifying how teams create goal scoring opportunities using a case study of crystal palace FC. Front. Psychol. 10, 1–8 (2019)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Kuźmicki, P.: Synchronizaton, enrichment and visualizaton of football data. Master’s thesis, University of Southern Denmark (SDU) (2020)

    Google Scholar 

  9. Malqui, J.L.S., Romero, N.M.L., Garcia, R., Alemdar, H., Comba, J.L.: How do soccer teams coordinate consecutive passes? A visual analytics system for analysing the complexity of passing sequences using soccer flow motifs. Comput. Graph. 84, 122–133 (2019)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Needleman, S.B., Wunsch, C.D.: A general method applicable to the search for similarities in the amino acid sequence of two proteins. J. Mol. Biol. 48(3), 443–453 (1970)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Pei, J., et al.: PrefixSpan: mining sequential patterns efficiently by prefix-projected pattern growth. In: Proceedings 17th International Conference on Data Engineering, pp. 215–224 (2001)

    Google Scholar 

  12. Pelekis, N., Tampakis, P., Vodas, M., Panagiotakis, C., Theodoridis, Y.: In-DBMS sampling-based sub-trajectory clustering. In: Proceedings of the 20th International Conference on Extending Database Technology, EDBT 2017, Venice, Italy, 21–24 March 2017, pp. 632–643. OpenProceedings.org (2017)

    Google Scholar 

  13. Rahimian, P., Toka, L.: Inferring the strategy of offensive and defensive play in soccer with inverse reinforcement learning. In: Brefeld, U., Davis, J., Van Haaren, J., Zimmermann, A. (eds.) MLSA 2021. CCIS, vol. 1571, pp. 26–38. Springer, Cham (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-02044-5_3

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  14. Sattari, A., Johansson, U., Wilderoth, E., Jakupovic, J., Larsson-Green, P.: The interpretable representation of football player roles based on passing/receiving patterns. In: Brefeld, U., Davis, J., Van Haaren, J., Zimmermann, A. (eds.) MLSA 2021. CCIS, vol. 1571, pp. 62–76. Springer, Cham (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-02044-5_6

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  15. Schubert, E., Zimek, A., Kriegel, H.: Local outlier detection reconsidered: a generalized view on locality with applications to spatial, video, and network outlier detection. Data Min. Knowl. Discov. 28(1), 190–237 (2014)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  16. Seymour, D.: Tactical theory: using the half-spaces to progress the ball (2020). https://totalfootballanalysis.com/article/tactical-theory-using-half-spaces-progress-ball-tactical-analysis-tactics

  17. Tampakis, P., Pelekis, N., Doulkeridis, C., Theodoridis, Y.: Scalable distributed subtrajectory clustering. In: 2019 IEEE International Conference on Big Data (IEEE BigData), Los Angeles, CA, USA, 9–12 December 2019, pp. 950–959. IEEE (2019)

    Google Scholar 

  18. Tenga, A., Holme, I., Ronglan, L.T., Bahr, R.: Effect of playing tactics on achieving score-box possessions in a random series of team possessions from Norwegian professional soccer matches. J. Sports Sci. 28(3), 245–255 (2010)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. Tianbiao, L., Andreas, H.: Apriori-based diagnostical analysis of passings in the football game. In: 2016 IEEE International Conference on Big Data Analysis (ICBDA), pp. 1–4 (2016)

    Google Scholar 

  20. Yiannakos, A., Armatas, V.: Evaluation of the goal scoring patterns in European Championship in Portugal 2004. Int. J. Perform. Anal. Sport 6, 178–188 (2006)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. Zimek, A., Filzmoser, P.: There and back again: outlier detection between statistical reasoning and data mining algorithms. WIREs Data Mining Knowl. Discov. 8(6) (2018). https://doi.org/10.1002/widm.1280

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Conor McCarthy .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2023 The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG

About this paper

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this paper

McCarthy, C., Tampakis, P., Chiarandini, M., Randers, M.B., Jänicke, S., Zimek, A. (2023). Analyzing Passing Sequences for the Prediction of Goal-Scoring Opportunities. In: Brefeld, U., Davis, J., Van Haaren, J., Zimmermann, A. (eds) Machine Learning and Data Mining for Sports Analytics. MLSA 2022. Communications in Computer and Information Science, vol 1783. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-27527-2_3

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-27527-2_3

  • Published:

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-031-27526-5

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-031-27527-2

  • eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

pFad - Phonifier reborn

Pfad - The Proxy pFad of © 2024 Garber Painting. All rights reserved.

Note: This service is not intended for secure transactions such as banking, social media, email, or purchasing. Use at your own risk. We assume no liability whatsoever for broken pages.


Alternative Proxies:

Alternative Proxy

pFad Proxy

pFad v3 Proxy

pFad v4 Proxy