Abstract
A procedure for landslide risk assessment is presented. The underlying hypothesis is that statistical relationships between past landslide occurrences and conditioning variables can be used to develop landslide susceptibility, hazard and risk models. The latter require also data on past damages. Landslides occurred during the last 50 years and subsequent damages were analysed. Landslide susceptibility models were obtained by means of Spatial Data Analysis techniques and independently validated. Scenarios defined on the basis of past landslide frequency and magnitude were used to transform susceptibility into quantitative hazard models. To assess vulnerability, a detailed inventory of exposed elements (infrastructures, buildings, land resources) was carried out. Vulnerability values (0–1) were obtained by comparing damages experienced in the past by each type of element with its actual value. Quantitative risk models, with a monetary meaning, were obtained for each element by integrating landslide hazard and vulnerability models. Landslide risk models showing the expected losses for the next 50 years were thus obtained for the different scenarios. Risk values obtained are not precise predictions of future losses but rather a means to identify areas where damages are likely to be greater and require priority for mitigation actions.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Brabb E, Harrod B (eds) (1989) Landslides. Extend and Economic Significance. Balkema, Rotterdam
Brabb EE, Pampeyan EH, Bonilla MG (1972) Landslide Susceptibility in San Mateo County, California. U.S. Geological Survey Miscellaneus Field Studies Map, MF-360
Carrara A, Catalano E, Sorriso Valvo M, Reali C, Osso I (1978) Digital terrain analysis for land evaluation. Geol Appl Idrogeol 13:69–127
Carrara A, Cardinali M, Detti R, Guzzetti F, Pasqui V, Reichenbach P (1991) GIS techniques and statistical models in evaluating landslide hazard. Earth Surf Process Landforms 16:427–445
Cendrero A, Díaz de Terán JR, Fernández O, Garrote R, González Lastra JR, Inoriza I, Lütting G, Otamendi J, Pérez M, Serrano A (1987) Metodología para la elaboración de mapas de riesgo. In: Geología Ambiental y Ordenación del Territorio. II Reunión Nacional, Valencia, Comunicaciones, II, pp 843–870
Chacón J, Irigaray C, Fernández T (1994) Large to middle scale landslides inventory, analysis and mapping with modelling and assessment of derived susceptibility, hazard and risks in a GIS. 7th IAEG Congress, Lisboa, VI, pp 4669–4678
Chung CF, Fabbri A (1993) The representation of geoscience information for data integration. Nonrenew Resourc 2(2):122–139
Chung CF, Fabbri AG (2005) Systematic procedures of landslide-hazard mapping for risk assessment using spatial prediction models. In: Glade T, Anderson MG, Crozier MJ (eds) Landslide hazard and risk. Wiley, New York, Chap 4, pp. 139–177
CRED (2003) The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database-Standard format data available from 1900–2001. Université Catholique de Louvain, Brussels. Belgium. http://www.cred.be/emdat
Cruden DM, Varnes DJ (1996) Landslide types and processes. In: Turner AK, Schuster RL (eds) Landslides: investigation and mitigation, National Academy Press, pp 36–75
Dikau R, Brunsden D, Schrott L, Ibsen M (1996) Landslide recognition. Identification, movement and causes. Wiley, New York
Diputación Foral de Guipúzcoa (1986) Estudio de Riesgos Naturales del Territorio Histórico de Guipúzcoa (2 Fase). Municipalities of Deba, Mendaro, Elgoibar and Eibar. San Sebastián, DFG, Open File report
Duque A, Echeverría G, Fernández E, Kerejeta A, Cendrero A, Díaz de Terán JR, Tamés P (1991) A methodological approach for the development of predictive models for hazard assessment. In: Panizza M, Soldati M, Coltellacci MM (eds) Proceedings European Experimental Course on Applied Geomorphology. Instituto di Geologia-Universitá degli Studi di Modena, Modena, Italy, 2, pp 13–25
Evans SG (1997) Fatal landslides and landslides risk in Canada. In: Cruden D, Fell R (eds) Landslide risk assessment. Balkema, Rotterdam, pp 185–196
Fell R (1994) Landslide risk assessment and acceptable risk. Can Geotech J 31:261–272
Glade T (2003) Vulnerability assessment in landslide risk analysis. Die Erde 134(2):121–138
Glade T, Anderson MG, Crozier MJ (eds) (2005) Landslide hazard and risk. Wiley, New York
Guzzetti F, Carrara A, Cardinali M, Reichenbach P (1999) Landslide hazard evaluation: a review of current techniques and their application in a multi-scale study, Central Italy. Geomorphology 31:181–216
Leone F, Asté JP, Leroi E (1996) Vulnerability assessment of elements exposed to mass-movement: working toward a better risk perception. In: Senneset K (ed) Landslides, Vol. 1. A.A. Balkema, 263–269
Leroi E (1996) Landslide hazard-Risk maps at different scales: Objectives, tools and developments. In: Senneset K (ed) Landslides-Glissements de terrain. VII International Symposium on Landslides. Trondheim, Norway. Balkema, Rotterdam, pp 35–51
Mejía-Navarro M, Wohl EE, Oaks SD (1994) Geological hazard, vulnerability, and risk assessment using GIS: model for Glenwood Springs, Colorado. Geomorphology 10(1–4):331–354
Remondo J (2001) Elaboración y validación de mapas de susceptibilidad de deslizamientos mediante técnicas de análisis espacial. PhD. Thesis. Universidad de Oviedo
Remondo J, González-Díez A, Díaz de Terán JR, Cendrero A (2003a) Quantitative landslide susceptibility models by means of spatial data analysis techniques; a case study in the lower Deva valley, Guipúzcoa (Spain). Nat Hazards 30(3):267–279
Remondo J, González-Díez A, Díaz de Terán JR, Cendrero A, Fabbri A, Chung CF (2003b) Validation of Landslide Susceptibility Maps; Examples and Applications from a Case Study in Northern Spain. Nat Hazards 30(3):437–449
Remondo J, Bonachea J, Cendrero A (2004) Probabilistic landslide hazard and risk mapping on the basis of occurrence and damages in the recent past. In: Lacerda WA, Ehrlich M, Fontoura SAB, Sayão ASF (eds) Landslides: evaluation and stabilization, Vol. 1. Taylor & Francis, London, 125–130
Remondo J, Soto J, González-Díez A, Díaz de Terán JR, Cendrero A (2005a) Human impact on geomorphic processes and hazards in mountain areas in northern Spain. Geomorphology 66(1–4):69–84
Remondo J, Bonachea J, Cendrero A (2005b) Quantitative landslide risk assessment and mapping on the basis of recent occurrences. Geomorphology (in press)
Varnes DJ (1978) Slope Movements: Types and Processes. In: Schuster RL, Krizek RJ (eds) Landslides-analysis and control, Special Report 176. Transportation Research Board, National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC, pp 11–33
Varnes DJ (1984) Landslides hazard zonation: a review of principles and practice. UNESCO, Paris
Acknowledgements
Financial support from European Commission (project ALARM, Contract No. EVG1-CT-2001-00038. The authors thank the Diputación Foral de Guipúzcoa (Gipuzkoako Foru Aldundia) and its personnel for their help during data gathering.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Remondo, J., Bonachea, J. & Cendrero, A. A statistical approach to landslide risk modelling at basin scale: from landslide susceptibility to quantitative risk assessment. Landslides 2, 321–328 (2005). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-005-0016-x
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-005-0016-x