2023 New Zealand general election

2023 New Zealand general election

14 October 2023
All 120 seats in the House of Representatives 61 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Leader Chris Hipkins Christopher Luxon David Seymour Party Labour National ACT Leader since 22 January 2023 30 November 2021 4 October 2014 Leader's seat Remutaka Botany Epsom Last election 65 seats, 50.01% 33 seats, 25.58% 10 seats, 7.58% Current seats 62 34 10 Seats needed 27 51   ma‾-o•ri Leader James Shaw Marama Davidson Debbie Ngarewa-Packer Rawiri Waititi Party Green Te Pāti Māori Leader since 30 May 2015 8 April 2018 15 April 2020 28 October 2020 Leader's seat List List Waiariki Last election 10 seats, 7.86% 2 seats, 1.17% Current seats 9 2 Seats needed 52 59
Incumbent Prime Minister Chris Hipkins Labour

The 2023 New Zealand general election will be held on 14 October 2023 to determine the composition of the 54th Parliament of New Zealand. Voters will elect 120 members to the unicameral New Zealand House of Representatives under the mixed-member proportional (MMP) voting system, a proportional representation system in which 72 members will be elected from single-member electorates and 48 members from closed party lists.

At the 2020 election, the centre-left Labour Party, led by Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, won an outright majority in the House, the first time under MMP (which was introduced in 1996) that a party has been able to form a government without needing the support of another party. Nonetheless, Labour still formed a co-operation agreement with the Green Party. The main opponent to the Labour government is the centre-right National Party, led by Christopher Luxon, along with ACT New Zealand (led by David Seymour). Other parties that could potentially play a kingmaker role in the election are Te Pāti Māori (led by Debbie Ngarewa-Packer and Rawiri Waititi) and New Zealand First (led by Winston Peters).

Background

Further information: Results of the 2020 New Zealand general election and 53rd New Zealand Parliament

The previous general election held on 17 October 2020 resulted in a majority for the Labour Party, winning 65 seats, allowing them to continue the Sixth Labour Government unrestricted in the 53rd Parliament. Their coalition partner from the 52nd Parliament, New Zealand First, did not receive enough votes to pass the five percent threshold or win in an electorate, removing them from Parliament. Confidence and supply partner the Green Party received 10 seats, up two, becoming the first minor party ever to increase their share of the vote following a term in government. In the opposition, the National Party lost 23 seats, giving them a total of 33, and ACT New Zealand went from one seat to ten. Te Pāti Māori won a Māori electorate and gained an additional list seat, returning to Parliament after a one-term absence, having lost all seats in the 2017 election.

In the 2022 Tauranga by-election, National retained the marginal seat with a large swing away from Labour. In the 2022 Hamilton West by-election, National gained the seat from Labour.

Electoral system

Main article: Electoral system of New Zealand

New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional (MMP) voting system to elect the House of Representatives. Each voter gets two votes, one for a political party (the party vote) and one for a local candidate (the electorate vote). Political parties that meet the threshold (5% of the party vote or one electorate seat) receive seats in the House in proportion to the percentage of the party vote they receive. 72 of the 120 seats are filled by the MPs elected from the electorates, with the winner in each electorate determined by the first-past-the-post method (i.e. most votes wins). The remaining 48 seats are filled by candidates from each party's closed party list. If a party wins more electorates than seats it is entitled to under the party vote, an overhang results; in this case, the House will add extra seats to cover the overhang.

The political party or party bloc with the majority of the seats in the House forms the Government. Since the introduction of MMP in 1996, no party had won enough votes to win an outright majority of seats, until the landslide 2020 Labour victory, which gave them 65 seats. When no party has commanded a majority, parties have had to negotiate with other parties to form a coalition government or a minority government.

With 120 seats, or 121 seats (with an overhang of one seat), a party, coalition, or minority government with confidence and supply support requires 61 seats for a majority. When there are two overhang seats in Parliament, 62 seats is required; this has happened only once. The Māori Party had two overhang seats in 2008, and one in 2005 and 2011. While other parties have returned to Parliament with less than 5% of the party vote by winning an electorate seat (e.g. ACT in 2005, 2008, 2011, 2014, and 2017), this did not result in overhang seats.

Electorate boundaries for the election will be the same as at the 2020 election, with 65 general electorates (49 in the North Island and 16 in the South Island), and 7 Māori electorates. Boundaries are due to be redrawn in 2024, after the 2023 census.

Election date and schedule

Unless an early election is called or the election date is set to circumvent holding a by-election, a general election is held every three years. The previous election was held on 17 October 2020.

The governor-general, Dame Cindy Kiro, signs the writ for the general election at Government House, Auckland, on 10 September 2023, watched by the chief electoral officer, Karl Le Quesne

The governor-general must issue writs for an election within seven days of the expiration or dissolution of the current parliament. Under section 17 of the Constitution Act 1986, parliament expires three years "from the day fixed for the return of the writs issued for the last preceding general election of members of the House of Representatives, and no longer." The writs for the 2020 election were returned on 20 November 2020; as a result, the 53rd Parliament must dissolve no later than 20 November 2023. Writs must be issued within seven days, so the last day for issuance of the writs is 27 November 2023. Writs must be returned within 60 days of their issuance (save for any judicial recount, death of a candidate, or emergency adjournment), which would be 26 January 2024. Because polling day must be a Saturday, and ten days is required for the counting of special votes, the last possible date for the next election to be held is 13 January 2024.

However, it is widely accepted by political commentators, news media and the Electoral Commission that the next election will be held in late 2023. News website Stuff, as part of its annual political predictions, predicted that the election would be in November so as not to coincide with the New Zealand co-hosted 2023 FIFA Women’s World Cup, which finishes in August, and the 2023 Men's Rugby World Cup, which finishes in October.

On 19 January 2023, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced Saturday 14 October 2023 as the election date. The indicative schedule for the election is as follows:

19 January 2023 (Thursday)	Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announces the general election will be held on 14 October.
13 July 2023 (Thursday)	Last day to change roll type (general or Māori) for Māori voters
14 July 2023 (Friday)	The regulated election advertising period begins.
12 August 2023 (Saturday)	Election hoardings may be erected (subject to local council rules).
8 September 2023 (Friday)	The 53rd Parliament is dissolved.
10 September 2023 (Sunday)	Writ day – Governor-General issues formal direction to the Electoral Commission to hold the election. Last day to ordinarily enrol to vote (late enrolments must cast special votes). Official campaigning begins; radio and television advertising begins.
12 September 2023 (Tuesday)	The Treasury released its Prefu or Pre-election fiscal update.
15 September 2023 (Friday)	Nominations for candidates close at 12:00 noon.
27 September 2023 (Wednesday)	Overseas voting begins.
2 October 2023 (Monday)	Advance voting begins.
13 October 2023 (Friday)	Advance and overseas voting ends. Last day to enrol to vote (except in-person at polling places). The regulated election advertising period ends; all election advertising must be taken down by midnight.
14 October 2023 (Saturday)	Election day – polling places open 9:00 am to 7:00 pm. People may enrol in-person at polling places. Preliminary election results released progressively after 7:00 pm.
3 November 2023 (Friday)	Official election results declared.
9 November 2023 (Thursday)	Writ for election returned; official declaration of elected members (subject to judicial recounts).

On 30 August 2023, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced in Adelaide that the 2023 Australian Indigenous Voice referendum will be held on 14 October 2023. This means that tens of thousands of New Zealand Australians will be voting in two polls on the same day, but for two different reasons. Some have suggested that the referendum may have an impact on Māori issues in the New Zealand election. Australia has the largest number of New Zealand expats in the world, with 530,491 New Zealand-born people living in Australia as of the 2021 Australian census, making up 2.1% of Australia's total population.

Overseas voting opened on 27 September with overseas voters having until 7pm on 14 October to cas their vote. 74 voting locations were established overseas including 10 in Australia, four in China, four in the United States, and one in the United Kingdom. Overseas voters were also given the option of downloading their voting papers from "vote.nz," and uploading it onto the website. By 27 September, the Electoral Commission confirmed that 78,000 voters had overseas addresses.

Parties and candidates

Further information: Candidates in the 2023 New Zealand general election by electorate and Party lists in the 2023 New Zealand general election

Political parties registered with the Electoral Commission can contest the general election as a party. To register, parties must have at least 500 financial members, an auditor, and an appropriate party name. A registered party may submit a party list to contest the party vote, and can have a party campaign expenses limit in addition to limits on individual candidates' campaigns. Unregistered parties and independents can contest the electorate vote only.

Since the 2020 election, six parties have been deregistered: Mana on 5 May 2021, Advance New Zealand on 19 August 2021, Sustainable NZ on 15 December 2021, New Zealand TEA Party on 21 September 2022, New Zealand Social Credit Party on 28 February 2023, and Heartland New Zealand on 22 June 2023.

Party		Leader(s)	Founded	Ideology	2020 result	2020 seats	Current seats
	Labour	Chris Hipkins	1916	Social democracy	50.01%	65	62
	National	Christopher Luxon	1936	Conservatism, liberalism	25.58%	33	34
	Green	Marama Davidson / James Shaw	1990	Green politics, social democracy	7.86%	10	9
	ACT	David Seymour	1994	Classical liberalism, conservatism	7.58%	10	10
	Te Pāti Māori	Debbie Ngarewa-Packer / Rawiri Waititi	2004	Māori rights, tino rangatiratanga	1.17%	2	2
	NZ First	Winston Peters	1993	Nationalism, populism	2.60%	0	0
	Opportunities (TOP)	Raf Manji	2016	Radical centrism, environmentalism	1.51%	0	0
	New Conservative	Helen Houghton	2011	Conservatism, right-wing populism	1.48%	0	0
	Legalise Cannabis	Maki Herbert / Michael Appleby	1996	Cannabis legalisation	0.46%	0	0
	NewZeal	Alfred Ngaro	2020	Christian fundamentalism	0.28%	0	0
	Freedoms NZ	Brian Tamaki / Sue Grey	2022	Anti-establishment, big tent, conspiracism	0.15% (Vision NZ), 0.11% (Outdoors)	0	0
	DemocracyNZ	Matt King	2022	Anti-vaccine mandate	—	—	—
	New Nation	Michael Jacomb	2022	Conspiracism, social conservatism	—	—	—
	Animal Justice	Anna Rippon / Robert McNeil	2023	Animal rights	—	—	—
	Leighton Baker Party	Leighton Baker	2023		—	—	—
	NZ Loyal	Liz Gunn	2023	Conspiracism	—	—	—
	Women's Rights	Jill Ovens / Chimene Del La Veras	2023	Gender-critical feminism	—	—	—

MPs not standing for re-election

Name	Party		Electorate/List	Term in office	Date announced
Jacqui Dean		National	Waitaki	2005–present	20 May 2022
David Bennett		National	List	2005–present	26 July 2022
Ian McKelvie		National	Rangitīkei	2011–present
Jan Logie		Green	List	2011–present	5 December 2022
David Clark		Labour	Dunedin	2011–present	13 December 2022
Paul Eagle		Labour	Rongotai	2017–present
Marja Lubeck		Labour	List	2017–present
William Sio		Labour	Māngere	2008–present
Jamie Strange		Labour	Hamilton East	2017–present
Poto Williams		Labour	Christchurch East	2013–present
Eugenie Sage		Green	List	2011–present	21 December 2022
Jacinda Ardern		Labour	Mount Albert	2008–2023	19 January 2023
Todd Muller		National	Bay of Plenty	2014–present	17 March 2023
Emily Henderson		Labour	Whangārei	2020–present
Stuart Nash		Labour	Napier	2008–2011, 2014–present	3 April 2023
Elizabeth Kerekere		Independent	List	2020–present	5 May 2023
Damien Smith		ACT	List	2020–present	11 July 2023
James McDowall		ACT	List	2020–present	16 July 2023
Kiri Allan		Labour	East Coast	2017–present	25 July 2023

MPs standing for re-election as list-only MPs

Name	Party		Electorate/List	Term in office	Date announced	Notes
Gerry Brownlee		National	List	1996–present	2 August 2022	Represented Ilam from 1996 until losing at the 2020 election.
Adrian Rurawhe		Labour	Te Tai Hauāuru	2014–present	26 January 2023	Speaker of the House of Representatives
Grant Robertson		Labour	Wellington Central	2008–present	27 January 2023	Minister of Finance
James Shaw		Green	List	2014–present	2 February 2023	Contested Wellington Central at every general election from 2011 to 2020.
Marama Davidson		Green	List	2015–present	14 April 2023	Contested Tāmaki Makaurau at every general election from 2014 to 2020.

Fundraising

On 18 January 2023, The New Zealand Herald reported that the National Party had raised NZ$2.3 million from 24 big donors in 2022 to fund their 2023 election campaign. The ACT Party raised NZ$1.1 million in large donations in 2022. By comparison, the incumbent Labour Party had raised $150,000 during that same period including a $50,000 donation from the family of Les Mills gym owner Phillip Mills. The Green Party raised $122,000 through personal contributions from co-leaders James Shaw and Marama Davidson. The New Zealand First party received a $35,000 donation from Tom Bowker.

By 1 May, the Christchurch-based Weft Knitting company had donated $100,000 to the Green Party, at the time the largest single election donation in 2023.

By 23 June, the Green Party had received a total of about $500,000 in donations, including a $50,000 donation from film director James Cameron and his wife Suzy Amis Cameron, and another $50,000 donation from actress Lucy Lawless. In addition, the Labour Party received a total of $458,000 in donations. The ACT, National, and New Zealand First parties also raised a total of $1.15 million, about $700,000, and $517,000 in big donations respectively. Property developer Trevor Farmer also donated $50,000 to the National Party, $200,000 to ACT, and $50,000 to New Zealand First. Other notable wealthy donors to the National Party have included philanthropists Brendan and Jo Lindsay (who donated $100,000), and Jeffrey Douglas ($51,000).

On 14 September, Radio New Zealand reported that National had received NZ$1.1 million, ACT had received NZ$375,000, the Greens NZ$100,000, and NZ First NZ$50,000 in business donations between early 2021 and September 2023. During the same period, Labour received NZ$275,000 in large donations from unions but received no significant business donations. In 2023, Labour received NZ$600,000 in large donations from individuals and unions. An interim report published by the Independent Electoral Review has recommended limiting political donations to individuals, and banning businesses and unions from donating to parties. Review member Professor Andrew Geddis expressed concern about banning businesses from donating to parties but allowing unions to donate.

On 18 September, Radio New Zealand reported that billionaire Graeme Hart had donated a total of NZ$700,000 to right-wing parties including National, ACT and NZ First. Of this amount, National had received NZ$400,000, ACT NZ$200,000 and NZ First NZ$100,000 from Hart and his company, the Rank Group Limited.

Campaigning

Expense limits and broadcasting allocations

Parties and candidates

During the regulated period prior to election day, parties and candidates have limits on how much they may spend on election campaigning. The limits are updated every year to reflect inflation. It is illegal in New Zealand to campaign on election day itself, or within 10 metres of an advance polling booth.

For the 2023 general election, every registered party contending the party vote is permitted to spend $1,388,000 plus $32,600 per electorate candidate on campaigning during the regulated period, excluding radio and television campaigning (broadcasting funding is allocated separately). For example, a registered party with candidates in all 72 electorates is permitted to spend $3,735,200 on campaigning for the party vote. Electorate candidates are permitted to spend $32,600 each on campaigning for the electorate vote.

Broadcasting allocation

Registered parties are allocated a separate broadcasting budget for radio and television campaigning. Only money from the broadcasting allocation can be used to purchase airtime; production costs can come from the general election expenses budget. The Electoral Commission determines how much broadcasting funding each party gets, set out by part 6 of the Broadcasting Act 1989. The allocation is based a number of factors including the number of seats in the current Parliament, results of the previous general election and any by-elections since, and support in opinion polls.

An initial broadcasting allocation was released from the Electoral Commission on 12 May 2023. On 31 May Freedoms New Zealand and two of its component parties, the NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party and Vision New Zealand, challenged the Electoral Commission's decision to allocate broadcasting funds to them collectively rather than as individual political parties. The Electoral Commission had decided to allocate broadcasting funds to them collectively on the basis that they were a "group of parties" that had joined forces. The plaintiffs argued that the Broadcasting Act 1989 did not clearly define what was a "group of parties" and that the Electoral Commission had not published clear criteria for how their parties had joined forces. On 17 July 2023, the High Court dismissed the case.

The final broadcasting allocation was released on 8 September 2023. For comparison, the cost of a 30-second television slot in October 2023 ranged from $250 during the daytime to over $29,000 on TVNZ 1 during 1 News at 6pm and Country Calendar.

Party		Broadcasting allocation (NZD)
	Labour	$1,291,992
	National	$1,084,061
	ACT	$368,548
	Green	$368,548
	Te Pāti Māori	$207,930
	NZ First	$173,483
	New Conservative	$139,450
	Opportunities	$139,450
	Freedoms NZ	$95,042
	Outdoors
	Vision NZ
	Animal Justice	$69,310
	DemocracyNZ	$69,310
	Legalise Cannabis	$69,310
	NewZeal	$69,310

Third-party promoters

Third-party promoters, such as trade unions and lobby groups, can campaign during the regulated period. The maximum expense limit for the election is $391,000 for those promoters registered with the Electoral Commission, and $15,700 for unregistered promoters.

As of 13 September 2023, the following third-party promoters were registered for the general election:

• ActionStation
• Julian Batchelor
• The Better NZ Trust
• New Zealand Council of Trade Unions
• New Zealand Dairy Workers Union
• Democracy Action Inc
• E Tū
• Every Kiwi Vote Counts
• Family First New Zealand
• Forest & Bird
• Greenpeace Aotearoa
• Jim Grenon
• Groundswell NZ
• Richard Harward
• Hobson's Pledge
• Living Juicy Ltd
• Motor Trade Association (MTA)
• Natural Health Alliance
• New Zealand Nurses Organisation
• NZEI Te Riu Roa
• Oxfam Aotearoa
• Public Service Association (PSA)
• Save Animals From Exploitation (SAFE)
• The S.B. Group
• Tax Justice Aotearoa NZ
• New Zealand Taxpayers' Union
• Voice for Life
• Vote for Better Ltd

In early September 2023, the New Zealand Council of Trade Unions (NZCTU) launched an adverstisement campaign attacking National Party leader Christopher Luxon. In response, National's campaign chair Chris Bishop accused the NZCTU and Labour Party of promoting negative campaigning. The NZCTU's president Richard Wagstaff defended the union's advertisement campaign, claiming that it was targeting National's policies including the elimination of fair pay agreements, the restoration of 90-day work trials, and public sector cuts. Labour leader and Prime Minister Chris Hipkins defended the NZCTU's advertisements, stating that the union had published advertisements in previous elections. He also accused the National Party and its alleged surrogates including the New Zealand Taxpayers' Union, Groundswell NZ, and Hobson's Pledge of publishing attack advertisements against him and the Labour Government.

Party campaigns

Labour

Hipkins in Lower Hutt announcing Labour's policy of removing GST for fresh and frozen fruits and vegetables and increases to Working for Families

The Labour Party's campaign chairperson was Minister Megan Woods and campaign manager was Hayden Munro. The party also enlisted the services of advertising company "Together" as a media buyer.

On 17 May 2023, the Labour Party government attacked National's record on healthcare. On 27 May, Social Development Minister Carmel Sepuloni launched Labour's first election policy: to keep the superannuation age at 65 years and above. On 28 May, Hipkins announced Labour's second election promise: that it would retain the Apprenticeship Boost scheme.

On 12 July, Hipkins ruled out introducing a capital gains tax if Labour was re-elected to Government. On 16 July, Labour launched its election campaign and unveiled its election slogan "In It For You." Hipkins also campaigned on cutting inflation, reducing living costs, public safety, and investing in education, health and housing.

On 17 July, Labour introduced its youth crime package which included building two "high-needs units" within existing youth justice residences in Auckland and Christchurch, improving safety and security at youth justice residences, focusing on crime prevention measures including family group conferences, and empowering Family Courts to require youth offenders to perform community service including cleaning graffiti and rubbish disposal. That same week, the Labour Government announced several justice policies including introducing legislation to punish adults convicted of influencing young people to commit crimes, making the publishing of recordings of criminal behaviour on social media an aggravating factor in sentencing, making ram-raiding a criminal offence with a ten-year sentence and allowing 12 and 13-year old ram raiders to be tried in Youth Courts.

On 31 July, the party released its official list of 76 party list candidates. Several Labour MPs including Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta, Soraya Peke-Mason, and Greg O'Connor also confirmed they would be standing solely as electorate candidates.

On 13 August, Labour announced that it would remove the goods and service tax (GST) for fresh and frozen fruits and vegetables, and would increase the "Working for Families" programme for families. Labour's proposed GST policy attracted criticism including economist Brad Olsen, Child Poverty Action Group economist Susan St John, Health Coalition Aotearoa food expert Sally Mackay, Stuff political editor Luke Malpass, Newshub political editor Jenna Lynch, Newsroom journalist Marc Daalder, and The New Zealand Herald business journalist Jenée Tibshraeny. On 15 August, Labour campaigned on extending paid parental leave from two weeks to four weeks if re-elected, almost three weeks after Labour voted down National's proposed bill allowing parents to share their leave entitlement. On 19 August, Labour launched its Māori campaign and released its Māori language manifesto.

On 2 September, the Labour campaign launch in Auckland was interrupted by protesters from Freedoms New Zealand. The Labour party announced a policy of free dental care for under 30s, starting in July 2025. On 6 September, Hipkins announced Labour's five part economic plan and also promised to lead a trade delegation to India within the first 100 days of government if re-elected. On 7 September, Labour announced several law and order policies including adding 300 frontline Police officers, expanding the use of mental health officers, and introducing legislation to make stalking a criminal offence.

On 12 September, Labour campaigned on rolling out free cervical screening for women aged between 25 and 69 years. In response to National's campaign pledge to build a third medical school at the University of Waikato, Hipkins announced on 13 September that the Government would invest in training 335 extra doctors by 2027. On 17 September, Labour released its women's election manifesto and pledged to raise the age for free breast cancer screening, and to develop an endometriosis action plan.

On 18 September, Labour campaigned on introduced rebates for rooftop solar panels and batteries, and a NZ$20 million community energy fund. That same day, campaign manager Woods confirmed that Labour would rule out an electoral deal with the Green Party in tight electorate seats.

National

National's campaign chairperson was MP Chris Bishop while Jo de Doux served as its campaign director. The party also enlisted the services of media buyer Rainmakers, independent creative advertising contractors Sue Worthington and Glenn Jamieson, and advertising company Topham Guerin.

The National Party has not run candidates in Māori electorates since the 2002 election. In 2019, list MP Jo Hayes expressed a desire to contest Te Tai Hauāuru; Leader Judith Collins stated her support in July 2020, but said it would not be possible for the 2020 election due to time constraints. After the election, Collins affirmed the party's intent to contest Māori electorates in 2023. After Christopher Luxon replaced Collins as leader, he confirmed that these plans would continue, but stated that it was a "pragmatic" move and that he felt Māori electorates were incompatible with the principle of "one person, one vote". List MP Harete Hipango was the first confirmed candidate, announced in April 2023 to be contesting Te Tai Hauāuru.

In May 2023, Luxon confirmed that National would not work with Te Pāti Māori if it formed the next government after the 2023 election, citing National's disagreement with the party's support for co-governance in public services and alleged separatism.

On 23 May, a National spokesperson admitted the party had been using images created by artificial intelligence in some of their attack ads on social media, while Luxon was unaware of this. In June, the party removed numerous videos featuring movie and television content from their TikTok account after Newshub contacted studios about whether National was breaching their copyright.

On 11 June, National announced that it would end New Zealand's ban on genetic modification and establish a national biotechnology regulator if elected into government. On 18 June, National announced that it would make gang membership an aggravating factor in criminal sentencing. On 25 June, National unveiled several law and order policies including limiting sentencing discounts, scrapping "cultural reports" and the Government's "prisoner reduction" target, and boosting investment in victim support funding and rehabilitation programmes for remand prisoners.

In early July, the National Party campaigned on building a new medical school at the University of Waikato to address the national shortage of doctors and reversing the Labour Government's cuts to the replacement Dunedin Hospital. On 16 July, Luxon confirmed that National's election slogan would be "Get our country back on track". He also announced that National would create a NZ$500 million fund for repairing both state highways and local roads. On 30 July, National announced that it would take a tough stance against gangs. On 31 July, National announced a NZ$24 billion transportation package that included building 13 new roads of "national significance," investing in three new bus "transport corridors" in Auckland, upgrading the lower North Island's railway infrastructure, and investing in road infrastructure in both the North and South Islands. Luxon also proposed creating a National Infrastructure Agency to coordinate government funding, promote investment, and improve funding, procurement and delivery.

On 9 August, National proposed banning cellphones in schools in order to help students focus and improve their academic outcomes. On 19 August, National released its official party list; with senior MP Michael Woodhouse opting to stand solely as an electorate MP due to his disagreement with his list ranking. On 21 August, National campaigned on spending NZ$280 million to fund 13 cancer treatments. On 22 August, Luxon confirmed that National would not support ACT's proposal to repeal the Climate Change Response (Zero Carbon) Amendment Act and proposed Treaty of Waitangi principles legislation.

On 28 August, Luxon confirmed that National would be abandoning its historical "teacup" deal with the ACT Party and would be contesting ACT leader David Seymour's Epsom seat. On 30 August, National announced a proposed $14.6 billion in income tax cuts aiming to relieve "the squeezed middle". These will be funded by a reduction in the public service and by new taxes on foreign home buyers, foreign gambling operators and commercial buildings.

On 3 September, Luxon released National's election year pledge card at the party's campaign launch in South Auckland, which listed eight priority promises. Members of Freedoms NZ protested outside the venue hosting the campaign launch. On 5 September, National announce that it would demote the Māori partnership boards, which the Government had established as part of its 2022 health sector reforms. On 6 September, National campaigned on investing NZ$257 million over the next four years to increase the number of electric vehicle chargers to 10,000 and stated it would end the Government's "clean car" discount programme and "ute tax." On 7 September, National released its tourism policy, which would be funded by a proposed International Visitor Levy.

On 24 September, National campaigned on reversing the Government's "blanket speed limit reductions" and restoring highway and local roads' speed limits to 100km and 50km respectively.

On 25 September, National leader Christopher Luxon said he could pursue a coalition with Winston Peters New Zealand First after the elections.

Greens

Green Party campaign sign for the 2023 general election

The Green Party's campaign was led by the Campaign 23 Committee, which was convened by deputy mayor of Nelson Rohan O'Neill-Stevens and party activist Gina Dao-McClay. Chennoah Walford served as campaign director while the party enlisted the services of media buyer and advertisement company "Reason." On 18 May, the party announced it would campaign on climate change, housing, inequality, tax reform, and the cost of living. On 20 May, the Greens released their finalised list of 31 candidates, which excluded Elizabeth Kerekere, who left the party to sit as an independent MP until the election whereupon she will retire. Following the success of Chlöe Swarbrick's 2020 Auckland Central campaign, the Green Party is running three additional "two tick" campaigns in this election; Ricardo Menéndez March in Mount Albert, Julie Anne Genter in Rongotai, and Tamatha Paul in Wellington Central.

In June 2023, the Greens announced they would be introducing various wealth and taxation proposals including tax cuts for anyone earning below NZ$125,000, a minimum income guarantee of NZ$385 per week, a wealth tax on assets worth above NZ$2 million, a 1.5% trust tax, a 45% top income tax rate, and a corporate tax rate of 33%.

In early July 2023, the Greens announced their "Pledge to Renters." Key provisions included imposing rent controls on landlords, introducing a rental "warrant of fitness," providing a government underwrite for housing providers, accelerating the public housing building programme, and creating a national register for all landlords and property managers. On 9 July, the party announced its election manifesto. Key provisions include establishing a new climate change ministry, expanding the criteria for carbon emissions, decriminalising drugs, boosting the refugee intake to 5,000, introducing rent controls, and building 35,000 new public homes.

On 17 July, the Greens launched their Hoki Whenua Mai policy. Key provisions include introducing legislation to return all confiscated land to the indigenous Māori people, removing a 2008 deadline for Treaty of Waitangi breaches, and establishing a process for privately owned land. On 23 July, the Greens formally launched their election campaign along with the slogan "The Time Is Now" and a new campaign video.

On 6 August, the Greens proposed setting up a national dental service to provide free dental health care, which would be funded by a wealth tax. On 13 August, the Greens announced a Clean Power Payment and Zero Carbon Homes upgrade with the goal of equipping homes with solar panels and replacing fossil fuel appliances like gas heaters.

On 10 September, the Greens launched its oceans policies, which included creating an independent Ocean Commission and passing a Health Ocean Act. On 16 September, the Greens co-leader Marama Davidson campaigned on raising workers' minimum annual leave from four to five weeks.

ACT

Seymour in Palmerston North for an ACT public meeting on 30 July 2023

The ACT Party's campaign committee chairperson was Nick Wright and campaign chairperson was Stu Wilson. The party also enlisted the services of American pollster Joe Trippi & Associates as its media buyer. ACT has campaigned against gun control. Contrary to the Greens, ACT leader David Seymour has said that he believes it's inequitable for a small portion of New Zealand's population to bear a substantial share of the country's tax revenue. In late April, ACT confirmed that it would be running "two-ticks" campaigns for both Seymour and Deputy Leader Brooke Van Velden in Auckland's Epsom and Tāmaki electorates.

The party launched its campaign on 4 June 2023, with Seymour announcing a policy to create a new "Ministry of Regulation" to police red tape and introduce a new law to ensure that regulation is underpinned by law-making principles. On 9 July, ACT vowed to lower the youth justice age back to 17 years. In 2016, the previous National Government had raised the youth justice age to 18 years, with 17 year olds being tried in youth courts for most offences except serious offences such as murder, sexual assault, aggravated robbery, arson, and serious assaults. On 13 July, ACT released its Oranga Tamariki (Ministry for Children) policy which advocated making the Independent Children's Monitor (ICM) an independent Crown entity, separating social workers' jobs into mentors and Child Protection Officers, and transferring youth justice functions from Oranga Tamariki to the Department of Corrections.

On 16 July, ACT released their finalised list of 55 candidates, with notable newcomers including former Federated Farmers president Andrew Hoggard and former National MP Parmjeet Parmar. On 30 July, ACT announced that it would seek to speed up the Employment Relations Authority's (ERA) personal grievance process in order to help small businesses. On 20 August, Seymour announced that ACT would set performance benchmarks for public sector organisations, "key performance indicators" for public sector chief executives, and would restore "performance pay" for public sector chief executives.

On 27 August, ACT pledged to remove Māori wards in local governments. On 3 September, Seymour announced that ACT would reverse the Government's ban on oil and gas exploration, ease the consent process for offshore wind projects, and remove the Te Mana o te Wai framework from the resource consenting process. On 6 September, Seymour confirmed that ACT's "red tape review" would focus on the early childhood education sector, health services, primary industries, and financial services.

On 13 September, Seymour unveiled ACT's law and order policies which included reforming the reparations process in favour of victims, imposing tougher sentences for crimes against vulnerable workers, reinstating "three strikes" legislation, and building 500 additional prison beds and 200 youth justice beds. On 15 September, ACT campaigned on stripping welfare beneficiaries off their benefits if they did not seek treatment for drugs and stress or seek work. On 17 September, ACT launched its election campaign on a platform of opposing co-governance and introducing legislation setting out the principles of the Treaty of Waitangi. The campaign launch was interrupted by Freedoms NZ candidate Karl Mokoraka. A Newshub cameraman and visual journalist were also allegedly assaulted by an ACT supporter. Seymour condemned the alleged assaults and vowed to support the investigation.

On 20 September, ACT launched its education and early childhood education policies, with a focus on combating bureuacratic "micro-management" and truancy.

Te Pāti Māori

Te Pāti Māori's campaign was led by campaign chairperson and party president John Tamihere and the party enlisted the services of creative agency "Motion Sickness." Labour minister Meka Whaitiri defected to Te Pāti Māori on 3 May 2023. On 15 June, Te Pāti Māori co-leader Rāwiri Waititi released a Facebook video targeted towards Chris Hipkins and Christopher Luxon, calling for the pair to "shut their mouths and stop using our iwi as a political football to score points", in regards to the tangihanga of Steven Taiatini, who was the Ōpōtiki president of the Mongrel Mob Barbarians. Waititi is of the Whakatōhea iwi. Both Hipkins and Luxon objected to Waititi's comments, citing concerns of safety.

Te Pāti Māori launched its election campaign at Te Whānau O Waipareira's Matariki event in Henderson, Auckland. Waititi and fellow co-leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer led the event, which featured a music concert. The party campaigned on advancing the interests of the Māori people, combating racism, and the "second-rate" status of Māori, as Ngarewa-Packer labeled it. During the campaign launch, a man attempted to assault Waititi but was removed by security. The man was later given a warning for disorderly conduct and resisting police.

On 27 July, Te Pāti Māori announced a raft of tax policies including a zero tax policy on those earning below NZ$30,000, a new 48% tax on those earning above NZ$300,000, raising the companies tax rate back to 33% and a wealth tax on millionaires. On 2 August, the party campaigned on ending state care for Māori children and replacing the present Oranga Tamariki (Ministry for Children) with an independent Mokopuna Māori Authority that would network with Māori organisations, iwi (tribes), and hapu (sub-groups) to ensure that Māori children remained connected with their whakapapa (genealogies). On 20 August, Te Pāti Māori released its official candidate list of 30 candidates.

New Zealand First

New Zealand First leader Winston Peters says if NZ First is elected to government, New Zealand First would remove Māori names from government departments and bring back English names. The party has also resisted changes to the age of eligibility for Superannuation. Additionally, New Zealand First is against vaccine mandates and proposes that gang affiliation should automatically serve as an aggravating factor in crime sentencing.

On 23 July, NZ First launched its election campaign with the slogan "Let's take back our country." Peters announced that the party would campaign on five key issues: combating so-called "racist separatism," fighting Australian-owned banks and the "supermarket duopoly," investing in health, social services, and elderly care, and adopting "tough on crime" policies including building a "gang prison" and designating all gangs as terrorist organisations. On 30 July, NZ First campaigned on moving the Ports of Auckland and the Royal New Zealand Navy's Devonport base to Northport, extending the North Island Main Trunk Line to Marsden Point, a new four-lane alternative highway through the Brynderwyn Range, and establishing a full inquiry into the Government's handling of the COVID-19 pandemic in New Zealand.

On 16 August, NZ First released a policy on transgender people on bathrooms and sports; which included introducing legislation requiring public bodies to have "clearly demarcated" unisex and single-sex toilets, restricting toilet access to individuals from the opposite sex, and requiring sporting bodies to have an "exclusive biological female category." The National Party criticised the policy. On 20 August, NZ First released a policy of making English an official language of New Zealand and withdrawing from the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous People.

On 3 September, NZ First released a cowboy-themed campaign video featuring Peters riding a horse. On 10 September, Peters claimed that Māori people were not indigenous to New Zealand on the grounds that they originated in the Cook Islands and China during a public meeting in Nelson. National Party Luxon criticised Peter's remarks but avoided confirming or denying whether his party would enter into coalition with NZ First in a future government. On 16 September, NZ First released its 31 member party list which included several former NZ First Members of Parliament including Peters, Shane Jones, Mark Patterson, Jenny Marcroft, and former Mayor of Wellington Andy Foster.

New Conservatives Party

In August 2023, the New Conservatives leader Helen Houghton released the party's Family Builder policy, which was costed at NZ$9.1 billion for its first year. Key provisions included allowing workers to keep the first $20,000 they earned, child tax credits, allowing couples to split their income, and shifting funding from early childhood centres to parents with the goal of encouraging at least one parent to raise children at home. Houghton said that the Family Builder policy was intended to encourage parents not to split up and to protect the family unit.

The Opportunities Party

The Opportunities Party aligns with the Greens on various policy fronts, including the endorsement of Universal Basic Income (UBI) and for a more progressive tax system. The proposed tax reforms include implementing an income tax rate of 45% for individuals earning over $250,000 per year, while those earning less than $15,000 per year would be exempt from income tax completely. On 16 June, during a Q&A Wellington Central candidate Natalia Albert, although acknowledging the similarities, said one key divergence from the Greens was that they were open to forming a coalition with either National or ACT.

To secure a place in Parliament, The Opportunities Party is primarily banking on their leader Raf Manji's potential victory in the Ilam electorate. In March 2023, TOP announced its NZ$1.5 billion "Teal Deal" policy aimed at youths that would allow people under the age of 30 years to use a "Teal Card" to purchase bikes, scooters, free health care, and skills-based training. The party also proposed a national civic service programme for young people, with participants being given a NZ$5,000 tax-free savings boost. On 17 June, Manji confirmed that TOP was developing an artificial intelligence candidate.

On 16 August, TOP released its health plan, which included fully-funded contraception, increasing placements at medical, nursing, and dentistry schools, boosting the voluntary bond scheme for health professionals and workers, establishing a fully-funded ambulance service, and fully-funded contraception, antenatal ultrasounds, and doctor visits. On 20 August, Manji announced that TOP would introduce a new NZ$3 million investor visa policy that would be used to support a fund to resettle climate refugees in New Zealand.

On 6 September, TOP's deputy leader Natalia Albert announced the party's democracy policy, with key provisions including a four-year parliamentary term, lowering the mixed-member proportional threshold, and lowering the voting age to 16 years.

Polarisation

The 2023 electoral campaign has been noted for its increased divisiveness, with a far more tense and discordant campaign than 2020. Some political commentators, such as Henry Cooke, have written about heightened political polarisation.

During the second of the three leaders' debates, as moderated by Paddy Gower on Three, Chris Hipkins read out a quote by Rob Ballantyne, the New Zealand First candidate for Rangitata, that he described as explicitly racist. The quote said, as Ballantyne later clarified to Tova O'Brien, to "elite" Māori: “Cry if you want to, we don’t care. You pushed it too far. We are the party with the cultural mandate and courage to cut out your disease and bury it permanently.” Hipkins then asked Christopher Luxon why he was willing to work with New Zealand First. Luxon responded by agreeing that the quote was racist, but said that he was "going to make the call [to Winston Peters on election night] if it means stopping you, Te Pati Māori and the Greens from coming to power". Hipkins later committed to calling out racism and defending Te Tiriti, while accusing ACT and NZ First of race-baiting and dog-whistle politics.

The widespread defacement of electoral billboards has caused concern. A billboard featuring Priyanca Radhakrishnan, who is defending Maungakiekie for Labour, was vandalised with misogynistic language. Several billboards featuring Māori politicians have been defaced with racial slurs, including coon and on one occasion nigger, and the word "Māori" repeatedly cut out. National Party billboards were also vandalised, but in a jovial way.

There have also been several acts of political violence. On 26 September, Angela Roberts, a list MP and the Labour Party candidate for Taranaki-King Country, was physically assaulted at a town hall meeting. At the Rotary Club in Inglewood, Taranaki, a National Party supporter who was confronting Roberts “grabbed [her] shoulders" and shook her violently "in order to emphasise the point he was making" before slapping her across the face. Chris Hipkins spoke to the media and condemned the incident. He also addressed Labour MPs and candidates directly, saying that if they were "criticised for not going to that meeting because you don’t feel safe going there, I will absolutely defend you doing that.” Roberts later said to RNZ "It feels like, incrementally, there is a growing acceptance of aggression in politics and our democratic processes. This must change." She thanked National MP Barbara Kuriger for reaching out to her after the incident.

On 29 September, Hana-Rāwhiti Maipi-Clarke, Te Pāti Māori's candidate for Hauraki-Waikato suffered a home invasion, in which her house was vandalised and a threatening letter was left behind. Te Pāti Māori put out a statement saying that the "premeditated and targeted attack" was "the latest of three incidents to take place at Hana's home just this week... to our knowledge, this is the first time in our history that a politician's home and personal property has been invaded to this extent." The paty leadership blamed "right-wing politicians [race-baiting] and [fearmongering] for votes" for emboldening the perpetrators.

Debates

TVNZ announced their debate schedule on 29 August. Newshub announced their debate schedule on 7 September.

Table of major debates

Date	Time (NZT)	Organiser(s)	Subject	Participants
				Labour	National	Green	ACT	Māori	NZ First	TOP
25 July		VUWSA/UniQ	Rainbow issues	Present Halbert	Present Christmas	Present Menéndez March	Absent	Absent	Absent	Absent
3 August	17:30–19:30	CID	Foreign affairs	Present Rosewarne	Present Brownlee	Present Ghahraman	Present van Velden	Absent	Not invited	Not invited
14 August		Newsroom/University of Auckland	Auckland Matters	Present Halbert	Present Brown	Present Swarbrick	Present van Velden	Absent	Absent	Not invited
16 August	12:00	VUWSA	Climate	Present Coffey	Present Watts	Present Shaw	Present Court	Not invited	Not invited	Present Albert
28 August	18:00–20:00	Atamira Platform	Mental health	Present Verrall	Present Doocey	Present Swarbrick	Present van Velden	Not invited	Not invited	Not invited
4 September	18:00	VUWSA/PSAY	Youth	Present Little	Present Sheeran	Present Paul	Not invited	Absent	Present Arneil	Present Albert
5 September	19:00	New Zealand Taxpayers' Union	Policies	Present Jackson	Present Goldsmith	Present Menéndez March	Present Seymour	Present Tamihere	Present Marcroft	Absent
7 September	12:00	VUWSA	Drug prohibition	Present Verrall	Absent	Present Genter	Absent	Absent	Not invited	Not invited
10 September		Auckland Chinese Community Centre		Present Sepuloni	Present Luxon	Present Shaw	Present Seymour	Not invited	Not invited	Not invited
13 September	16:45	Environmental Defence Society	Environment	Present Parker	Present Simpson	Present Shaw	Present Court	Present Tamihere	Not invited	Not invited
14 September	19:00	ASB	Finance	Present Robertson	Present Willis	Present Shaw	Present Seymour	Not invited	Not invited	Not invited
19 September	13:00	Stuff	Infrastructure	Present Parker	Present Bishop	Present Shaw	Present Court	Not invited	Present Jones	Not invited
19 September	19:00	TVNZ	Leaders' debate	Present Hipkins	Present Luxon	Not invited	Not invited	Not invited	Not invited	Not invited
21 September	19:30	Newshub	Multi-party debate	Not invited	Not invited	Present Davidson	Present Seymour	Present Ngarewa-Packer	Present Peters	Not invited
25 September	19:30	TVNZ/Re: News	Young voters	Present Williams	Present Stanford	Present Swarbrick	Present van Velden	Present Maipi-Clarke	Present Donoghue	Not invited
26 September	19:30	TVNZ	Kaupapa Māori	Present Jackson	Present Potaka	Present Davidson	Present Chhour	Present Tamihere	Present Jones	Not invited
27 September	19:00	Newshub	Leaders' debate	Present Hipkins	Present Luxon	Not invited	Not invited	Not invited	Not invited	Not invited
28 September	17:30	VUWSA		Present Roberts	Present Simmonds	Present Tuiono	Present Baillie	Not invited	Present Foster	Invited Albert
3 October	18:00	The Press	Leaders' debate	Invited Hipkins	Invited Luxon	Not invited	Not invited	Not invited	Not invited	Not invited
5 October	19:00	TVNZ	Multi-party debate	TBA	TBA	TBA	TBA	TBA	TBA	TBA
9 October		The Post	Finance	Invited Robertson	Invited Willis	Not invited	Not invited	Not invited	Not invited	Not invited
12 October	19:00	TVNZ	Leaders' debate	Invited Hipkins	Invited Luxon	Not invited	Not invited	Not invited	Not invited	Not invited

Issues

According to TVNZ's and Vox Pop Lab's Vote Compass online tool, the top five issues in the general electorates were cost of living (28%), the economy (17%), healthcare (14%), crime (9%), and the environment (8%). Within the Māori electorates, the top five issues were the cost of living (35%), Māori issues (15%), the economy (14%), healthcare (9%) and social justice (9%).

While the Labour and Green parties have supported the Government's Water Services Reform Programme, the National, ACT, and Māori parties have opposed the policy. National and ACT have campaigned on repealing the programme in its entirety.

Several parties have also sought to target migrant voters. On 23 September, Labour promised to introduce a 10-year multiple-entry "Super Visa" that would allow migrants' relatives to make successive visits of between 6 months and 5 years, and also campaigned on introducing a one-off amnesty program for overstayers who had been in New Zealand for ten years. In response, the Greens campaigned on introducing a full amnesty for all overstayers accompanied with residency pathways. Meanwhile, ACT promised to introduce a new "Unite Visa" that would allow to visit family in New Zealand for up to five years, with a renewal requirement each year and an annual fee of NZ$3,500 to cover potential health costs. Similar, National announced a new "Parent Visa Boost" which would allow relatives to visit family members in New Zealand for five years, with the possibility of renewal for another five years. Visa-holders would have to have health insurance since they would not be eligible for superannuation and other entitlements.

Disinformation and misinformation

Several researchers including Victoria University of Wellington political scientist Lara Greaves, psychologist and artificial intelligence commentator Paul Duignan, and University of Auckland research associate Sarah Bickerton expressed concern that artificial intelligence could be used to spread misinformation and disinformation during the lead-up to the 2023 general election. Similarly, Dr Sanjana Hattotuwa of The Disinformation Project, Joshua Ferrer, and InternetNZ expressed concerns about microtargeting being used as a tool for spreading disinformation and facilitating foreign election interference online. By contrast, Victoria University political scientist Jack Vowles opposed calls to ban microtargeting and argued that microtargeting could be used for positive purposes such as promoting educational policies among teachers.

In early August 2023, the Electoral Commission confirmed it was considering an investigation of controversial Stop Co-Governance organiser Julian Batchelor's pamphlets for allegedly breaching electoral advertising laws. Batchelor's pamphlets included a section telling people not to vote for parties which supported co-governance. Electoral law expert Graeme Edgeler opined that this section constituted an electoral advertisement. According to 1 News, the Electoral Commission had warned Batchelor that electoral adverts must have an official promoter statement, including a name and address. In response, Batchelor claimed that the infringement was "extremely minor" and would be hard to prove in court.

In mid August, Stuff reported that several NZ First candidates including property and commercial lawyer Kirsten Murfitt, Auckland consultant Janina Massee, Matamata-Piako district councillor Caleb Ansell, and Kevin Stone had espoused COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy and "plandemic" conspiracy theories, New World Order conspiracy theories, climate skepticism, QAnon, and homophobia. In response, party leader Winston Peters claimed that NZ First's candidate list was provisional and defended the party's candidate selection process.

On 21 August, ACT candidate Elaine Naidu Franz resigned after 1 News uncovered a LinkedIn post likening COVID-19 vaccine mandates to concentration camps. ACT leader David Seymour described her comments as "unacceptable" and welcomed her decision to resign as an ACT candidate. A second ACT candidate Darren Gilchrist of Waikato apologised for a Telegram post claiming that COVID-19 vaccines contributed to a surge in drowning in 2021. A third ACT candidate Anto Coates also resigned after describing COVID-19 as a mass hysteria and writing a parody song suggesting that former Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern had thought about sending people to gulags. Seymour defended ACT's candidate vetting process while Prime Minister Chris Hipkins and Te Pāti Māori co-leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer accused the party of courting conspiracy theorists and being secretive respectively.

On 7 September, the Labour Party removed a social media attack advertisement which falsely claimed that the National Party would end free public transport for disabled people. In truth, disabled "Total Mobility" users have never been eligible for free public transport or the half-price public transport fees announced in the 2023 New Zealand budget in mid-May 2023.

Protests and disruptions

Members of the Freedoms New Zealand disrupted Labour leader Chris Hipkins' campaign visit to the Ōtara Markets on 20 August, a National Party press conference featuring leader Christopher Luxon and transport spokesperson Simeon Brown on 28 August, and the Labour Party's campaign launch on 2 September. In early September 2023, The Disinformation Project's director Kate Hannah claimed that the disruptive activities of "fringe" parties were instigated by lobby groups. She also expressed concern that these disruptive activities would discourage public participation in the democratic process.

Social media

On 8 September, The New Zealand Herald reported that several political parties including the National, Green, ACT, NZ First, and Labour parties were using the video-sharing platform TikTok to reach younger voters in the 18-24 age group, which accounted for 418,831 eligible voters. National launched its TikTok account in November 2022 with Labour following suit in September 2023. By September 2023, National had gained 54,000 TikTok followers, the Greens 13,400 followers, ACT 12,200 followers, and Labour 1,400 followers. Popular election-related TikTok content included interviews featuring ACT leader David Seymour and NZ First candidate Shane Jones' rendition of the song "Don't Stop Believing." During the lead-up to the election, TikTok added a pop-up directing New Zealand viewers searching for election-related content to the Electoral Commission's website.

Opinion polls

Main article: Opinion polling for the 2023 New Zealand general election

Graph of opinion polls conducted; smoothing is set to span = 0.65

Several polling firms have conducted opinion polls during the term of the 53rd New Zealand Parliament (2020–present) for the 2023 general election. The regular polls are the quarterly polls produced by Television New Zealand (1 News) conducted by Kantar Public (formerly known as Colmar Brunton) and Discovery New Zealand (Newshub) conducted by Reid Research, along with monthly polls by Roy Morgan Research, and by Curia (Taxpayers' Union). The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date.

Seat projections

The use of mixed-member proportional representation allows ready conversion of a party's support into a party vote percentage and therefore a number of seats in Parliament. Projections generally assume no material change to the electorate seats held by each party (ACT retains Epsom, Greens retain Auckland Central, Māori retains Waiariki, etc.). Parties that do not hold an electorate seat and poll below 5% are assumed to win zero seats.

When determining the scenarios for the overall result, the minimum parties necessary to form majority governments are listed (provided parties have indicated openness to working together). Actual governments formed may include other parties beyond the minimum required for a majority; this happened after the 2014 election, when National only needed one seat from another party to reach a 61-seat majority, but instead chose to form a 64-seat government with Māori, ACT and United Future.

On 19 November 2022, New Zealand First leader Winston Peters ruled out a coalition with Labour, claiming "No one gets to lie to me twice". In April 2023, National leader Christopher Luxon commented that it would be "highly unlikely" that National would form a government with Te Pāti Māori or the Greens; however, a spokesperson later clarified Luxon had not "intended to fully rule out working" with either party. At the time, Te Pāti Māori was largely seen as the kingmaker in the upcoming election. Furthermore, Te Pāti Māori may not be prepared to support a National-led government that includes the ACT Party, as Te Pāti Māori has repeatedly accused the ACT Party of race baiting over co-governance and its calls for a referendum on the Treaty of Waitangi. On 10 May, Luxon officially ruled out forming a coalition with Te Pāti Māori. On 27 August, Labour leader Chris Hipkins ruled out New Zealand First as a possible coalition partner.

Source	Seats in parliament							Likely government formation(s)
	LAB	NAT	GRN	ACT	TPM	NZF	Total
2023 election result 14 Oct 2023	34	48	15	11	6	8	122	National–ACT–NZ First (67)
1 News–Verian 7–10 Oct 2023 poll	35	47	17	11	2	8	120	National–ACT–NZ First (66)
Newshub–Reid Research 5–10 Oct 2023 poll	35	43	19	11	3	9	120	National–ACT–NZ First (63)
Guardian Essential 4–8 Oct 2023 poll	39	44	14	10	2	11	120	National–ACT–NZ First (65)
Roy Morgan 4 Sep – 8 Oct 2023 poll	33	39	19	15	4	10	120	National–ACT–NZ First (64)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1–4 Oct 2023 poll	35	46	13	12	5	9	120	National–ACT–NZ First (67)
Talbot Mills 22–28 Sep 2023 poll	34	47	16	11	4	8	120	National–ACT–NZ First (66)
The Post/Freshwater Strategy 28–30 Aug 2023 poll	34	46	15	14	4	7	120	National–ACT–NZ First (67)

See also

• Elections in New Zealand

External links

• Electoral Commission website