AINUN JARIYAH

T. INDUSTRI / V
TASK I Of PPIC

1). Forecasting Demand with Simple Moving Average based on 3 week and 9 week.

WEEK DEMAND MA 3 WEEK MA 9 WEEK

1 802 - -
2 1400 - -
3 1000 - -
4 1500 1067.33 -
5 1500 1300 -
6 1300 1333.33 -
7 1800 1433.33 -
8 1700 1533.33 -
9 1300 1600 -
10 1700 1600 1366.89
11 1700 1566.67 1466.67
12 1500 1566.67 1500
13 2300 1633.33 1555.56
14 2300 1833.33 1644.44
15 2000 2033.33 1733.33

2). Forecasting Demand with Weight Moving Average based on 5 and 6 Month

MONTH DEMAND WEIGHT WMA

1 100 10% -
2 92 20% -
3 105 30% -
4 95 40% -
5 110 97.9
6 100 102.7
7 115 102.5

3). A firm's sales for a product line during the 12 Quarters of the past three years were as follows :

QUARTER SALES
1 602
2 1550
3 1500
4 1500
5 2400
6 3100
7 2600
8 2900
9 3800
10 4500
11 4000
12 4900
 a). Plot Data

6000

5000

4000
QUARTER
SALES
3000

2000

1000

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
The

b). Simple Linear regresion model

Indeks Seasonal
Year
Q 1 2 3 Avg Factor
1 602 2400 3800 2,267.3 0.816
2 1550 3100 4500 3,050 1.097
3 1500 2600 4000 2,700 0.971
4 1500 2900 4900 3,100 1.115

Average 2,779.3

A B A/B
PERIODE QUARTER SALES FACTOR DESEAS LINEAR
1 1 602 0.816 737.7
2 2 1550 1.097 1,412.9
3 3 1500 0.971 1,544.8
4 4 1500 1.115 1,345.3
5 1 2400 0.816 2,941.2
6 2 3100 1.097 2,825.9
7 3 2600 0.971 2,677.7
8 4 2900 1.115 2,600.9
9 1 3800 0.816 4,656.9
10 2 4500 1.097 4,102.1
11 3 4000 0.971 4,119.5
12 4 4900 1.115 4,394.6

c) Forecasting Demand with Linear Regression Analysys based on 13 through 16 Quarter

A B A/B
PERIODE QUARTER SALES FACTOR DESEAS LINEAR FACTOR FORECAST
1 1 602 0.816 737.7
2 2 1550 1.097 1,412.9
3 3 1500 0.971 1,544.8
4 4 1500 1.115 1,345.3
5 1 2400 0.816 2,941.2
6 2 3100 1.097 2,825.9
7 3 2600 0.971 2,677.7
8 4 2900 1.115 2,600.9
9 1 3800 0.816 4,656.9
10 2 4500 1.097 4,102.1
11 3 4000 0.971 4,119.5
12 4 4900 1.115 4,394.6
13
14
15
16
4). Forecast Demand with Simple Exponential Smothing with ∂ = 0.2 and 0.5

a).
FORECAST
MONTH DEMAND
∂ = 0.2 ∂ = 0.5
January 100 82 82
February 94 85.60 91.00
March 106 87.28 92.50
April 80 91.02 99.25
May 68 88.82 89.63
June 94 84.66 78.81

b).
{1} ∂ = 0.2

FORECAST Error ( e ) Absolute

MONTH DEMAND
∂ = 0.2 (A-F) Error
January 100 82 18.00 18.00
February 94 85.60 8.40 8.40
March 106 87.28 18.72 18.72
April 80 91.02 -11.02 11.02
May 68 88.82 -20.82 20.82
June 94 84.66 9.34 9.34
Total 542 519.38 22.62 86.31

MAD = ( 1/n )∑ | ei |
= (1/5)*(86.31)
= 17.26

{2} ∂ = 0.5

FORECAST Error (e) Absolute

MONTH DEMAND
∂ = 0.5 (A-F) Error
January 100 82 18.00 18.00
February 94 91.00 3.00 3.00
March 106 92.50 13.50 13.50
April 80 99.25 -19.25 19.25
May 68 89.63 -21.63 21.63
June 94 78.81 15.19 15.19
Total 542 533.19 8.81 90.57

MAD = ( 1/n )∑ | ei |
= (1/5)*(90.57)
= 18.11