COMMODITY PRICE MONITOR

June 2012

RBC commodity price index

Commodity prices fall further in May

January 1994 = 100

400
350
300

250
200
150
2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Monthly average

The energy products sub-index declined for the third consecutive month
in May with the 3.9% decrease representing the largest monthly drop since
August 2011. The sub-index has now fallen in eight of the last twelve
months and sits at its lowest level since November 2010. The weakness in
May reflected a sharp 8.4% plunge in crude oil prices which brought them
below US$100 per barrel for the first time in 2012. Coal prices declined
6.8%, while highly depressed natural gas prices bounced 24.6% to provide
some offset. The sub-index was down 14.5% on a year-over-year basis.

Source: RBC Economics Research

Index excluding energy product prices

January 1994 = 100
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Monthly average
Source: RBC Economics Research

January 1994 = 100

650

550

450

350

250

150
2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Monthly average
Source: RBC Economics Research

RBCs commodity price index is a Fisher chain-weighted

index of spot or transaction prices of 24 of the top exported Canadian-produced commodities. The weight of
each commodity in the overall index and various subindices is determined by its share of export volumes and
is updated annually in February.

David Onyett-Jeffries
Economist
416-974-6525
david.onyett-jeffries@rbc.com

The agricultural products sub-index fell to its lowest level in four

months, down 2.1% in May. All commodity prices in the grouping declined
in the month, led by a 3.8% drop in canola prices that retraced a portion of
the 27% increase seen over the first four months of the year. The monthly
decline pushed the sub-index further below its year ago level, down 14.8%
compared to the 13.0% annual decline seen in the previous month.
The forest products sub-index bucked the trend of the other commodity
groupings and notched its sixth consecutive monthly increase with a 4.3%
gain in May. The sub-index is now up 13% since November and sits at its
highest level since last March. The recent gains have been driven by
strength in lumber prices, which are up 33% since November on indications
that the recovery in the US housing market is finally gaining traction. With
the solid monthly increase, the sub-index moved above its year-ago level
for the first time in eight months, up 9.3% compared to last May.

Energy products sub-index

2007

The RBC commodity price index declined for the third straight month with the
pace of decline accelerating to 2.8% in May from the 2.7% month-over-month
decrease seen in April. The drop in the overall index reflected broad-based
declines in commodity prices, with four of the five sub-indices falling in the
month. Forest product prices did to post a sizable gain, helping the index excluding energy post a more modest 1.7% decline. Commodity prices are below
their year ago levels, with the overall index and the index excluding energy
down 10.5% and 6.7%, respectively, from May 2011.

The non-precious metals & minerals sub-index dropped 3.4% in May, its
third consecutive monthly decline and largest since last October. The subindex is now at its lowest level since August 2010. Prices for base metals
were the once again the primary source of weakness in the month, reflecting
ongoing concerns about slowing global growth prospects. Despite the sizable monthly falloff, the annual pace of decline in the sub-index moderated
to 16.1% in May from the 16.3% rate seen in the previous month.
The precious metals sub-index decreased by 4.2% on a month-over-month
basis in May as prices for both silver and gold continued their fall from the
record high levels seen in the second half of 2011. The sub-index hit its
lowest level since last June and dipped below its year-ago level for the first
time since July 2009, down 0.5% on a year-over-year basis in May.

COMMODITY PRICE MONITOR | JUNE 2012

RBC commodity price sub-indices

Agricultural products sub-index

Forest products sub-index

January 1994 = 100

January 1994 = 100

210

130

190

120

170

110

150

100

130

90

110

80

90

70

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2007

2008

2009

Monthly average

2010

2011

2012

2011

2012

Monthly average

Source: RBC Economics Research

Source: RBC Economics Research

Non-precious metals & minerals sub-index

Precious metals sub-index

January 1994 = 100

January 1994 = 100

400

500
450

350

400
350

300

300

250

250
200

200

150

150

100

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2007

2008

2009

2010
Monthly average

Monthly average
Source: RBC Economics Research

Source: RBC Economics Research

Period averages
2009

2010

2011

Q3-11

Q4-11

Q1-12

Mar-12

Apr-12

May-12

Indices
RBC commodity price index

200.6

253.0

295.1

Month-over-month/quarter-over-quarter % change
Year-over-year % change
RBC commodity price index ex. energy

293.2

281.8

289.7

281.8

4.2

-5.1

-3.9

-0.4

-2.7

273.9
-2.8

-33.1

26.1

16.7

24.8

19.0

4.5

-5.8

-12.0

-10.5

146.6

180.6

213.4

217.9

218.8

201.6

208.4

205.1

201.6

1.3

0.4

-7.9

-0.7

-1.6

-1.7

Month-over-month/quarter-over-quarter % change
Year-over-year % change

309.0

-19.9

23.2

18.2

24.0

23.3

1.4

-4.1

-7.6

-6.7

114.9

124.5

164.2

175.8

163.3

150.2

154.2

152.4

149.3

4.9

-7.1

-8.0

2.1

-1.2

-2.1

Sub-indices
Agricultural products
Month-over-month/quarter-over-quarter % change
Year-over-year % change
Energy products

-26.7

8.3

31.9

56.5

27.4

3.3

-7.3

-13.0

-14.8

257.7

327.6

374.3

401.7

360.0

359.5

367.4

353.3

339.6

6.9

-10.4

-0.2

-0.2

-3.8

-3.9

Month-over-month/quarter-over-quarter % change
Year-over-year % change
Forest products

-42.9

27.1

14.3

24.5

14.1

6.9

-8.0

-16.5

-14.5

83.3

109.3

111.4

110.4

110.2

105.5

111.4

112.6

117.5

-7.5

-0.2

-4.3

2.9

1.1

4.3

Month-over-month/quarter-over-quarter % change
Year-over-year % change
Non-precious metals & minerals

-16.1

31.3

1.9

-0.9

4.8

-7.4

-6.9

-1.9

9.3

222.0

270.1

309.1

322.6

313.3

276.4

286.5

277.7

268.3

-0.5

-2.9

-11.8

-1.9

-3.1

-3.4

Month-over-month/quarter-over-quarter % change
Year-over-year % change
Precious metals

-27.1

21.7

14.5

22.5

19.6

-5.9

-11.6

-16.3

-16.1

249.1

317.8

422.1

414.1

461.9

438.8

441.1

433.1

414.7

10.9

11.5

-5.0

-3.7

-1.8

-4.2

34.8

46.4

21.2

13.3

5.1

-0.5

Month-over-month/quarter-over-quarter % change
Year-over-year % change

ECONOMICS | RESEARCH

10.3

27.6

32.8

COMMODITY PRICE MONITOR | JUNE 2012

Commodity prices trends

Agricultural products
Barley

Canola

US$ per tonne

US$ per tonne

250

700

600

200

500

150
400

100

300

50

200

2007

2008

2009

2010

Monthly average

2011

2012

2007

10-year average

2008

2009

2010

Monthly average

Source: Haver Analytics, RBC Economics Research

2011

2012

10-year average

Source: Haver Analytics, RBC Economics Research

Corn

Wheat

US$ per tonne

US$ per tonne

350

800

300

650

250
500

200
350

150

100

200

2007

2008

2009

2010

Monthly average

2011

2012

2007

10-year average

2008

2009

2010

Monthly average

Source: Haver Analytics, RBC Economics Research

2011

2012

10-year average

Source: Haver Analytics, RBC Economics Research

Live cattle

Potatoes
US$ per 100 pounds

US$ per 100 pounds

15

140
130

13

120
11

110
100

90
7

80
70

5
2007

2008

2009

2010

Monthly average

2011

2012

2007

2008

2009

2010

Monthly average

10-year average

2011

2012

10-year average

Source: Haver Analytics, RBC Economics Research

Source: Haver Analytics, RBC Economics Research

Live hogs

Fresh salmon

US$ per 100 pounds

US$ per kilogram

85

8.50

75

7.50

65

6.50

55

5.50

45

4.50

3.50

35
2007

2008

2009

Monthly average
Source: Haver Analytics, RBC Economics Research

2010

2011
10-year average

2012

2007

2008

2009

Monthly average

2010

2011

2012

10-year average

Source: Haver Analytics, RBC Economics Research

ECONOMICS | RESEARCH

COMMODITY PRICE MONITOR | JUNE 2012

Commodity price trends

Energy products

Forest products

Coal

Lumber

US$ per tonne

US$ per 1,000 board feet

200

350
325
300

160

275
250

120

225

80

200
175

40

150

2007

2008

2009

2010

Monthly average

2011

2012

2007

10-year average

2008

2009

2010

Monthly average

Source: Haver Analytics, RBC Economics Research

2011

2012

10-year average

Source: Haver Analytics, RBC Economics Research

Crude oil

Newsprint

US$ per barrel

US$ per tonne

150

800

120

700

90

600

60

500

30

400

2007

2008

2009

2010

Monthly average

2011

2012

2007

10-year average

2008

2009

2010

Monthly average

Source: Haver Analytics, RBC Economics Research

2011

2012

10-year average

Source: Bloomberg, RBC Economics Research

Pulp

Natural gas

US$ per tonne

US$ per million British thermal units

15

1100

12

1000

900

800

700

600

2007

2008

2009

2010

Monthly average

2011

2012

2007

10-year average

2008

2009

2010

Monthly average

Source: Haver Analytics, RBC Economics Research

2011

2012

10-year average

Source: Bloomberg, RBC Economics Research

Precious metals
Gold

Silver

US$ per troy ounce

US$ per troy ounce

45

1900
1700

35

1500
1300

25

1100
900

15

700
5

500
2007

2008

2009

Monthly average
Source: Haver Analytics, RBC Economics Research

ECONOMICS | RESEARCH

2010

2011
10-year average

2012

2007

2008

2009

Monthly average
Source: Haver Analytics, RBC Economics Research

2010

2011
10-year average

2012

COMMODITY PRICE MONITOR | JUNE 2012

Commodity price trends

Non-precious metals & minerals
Aluminum

Copper

US$ per pound

US$ per pound

1.50

1.30

1.10
3

0.90
2

0.70

0.50

2007

2008

2009

2010

Monthly average

2011

2012

2007

10-year average

2008

2009

2010

Monthly average

Source: Haver Analytics, RBC Economics Research

2011

2012

10-year average

Source: Haver Analytics, RBC Economics Research

Iron ore

Lead

US$ per tonne

US$ per pound

200

1.80

160

1.40

120

1.00

80

0.60

0.20

40
2007

2008

2009

2010

Monthly average

2011

2007

2012

2008

2009

2010

Monthly average

10-year average

2011

2012

10-year average

Source: Haver Analytics, RBC Economics Research

Source: Haver Analytics, RBC Economics Research

Nickel

Potash

US$ per pound

US$ per tonne

25

900

20

700

15
500

10
300

100

2007

2008

2009

2010

Monthly average

2011

2012

2007

10-year average

2008

2009

2010

Monthly average

Source: Haver Analytics, RBC Economics Research

2011

2012

10-year average

Source: Haver Analytics, RBC Economics Research

Uranium

Zinc

US$ per pound

US$ per pound

140

2.00

110

1.60

80

1.20

50

0.80

0.40

20
2007

2008
Monthly average

Source: Haver Analytics, RBC Economics Research

2009

2010

2011
10-year average

2012

2007

2008
Monthly average

2009

2010

2011

2012

10-year average

Source: Haver Analytics, RBC Economics Research

ECONOMICS | RESEARCH

COMMODITY PRICE MONITOR | JUNE 2012

Commodity price trends

Period averages
2009

2010

2011

Q3-11

Q4-11

Q1-12

Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12

Agricultural products
Barley (US $/tonne)
Year-over-year % change
Canola (US $/tonne)
Year-over-year % change
Corn (US $/tonne)
Year-over-year % change
Wheat (US $/tonne)
Year-over-year % change
Potatoes (US $/cwt)
Year-over-year % change
Live cattle (US $/cwt)
Year-over-year % change
Live hogs (US $/cwt)
Year-over-year % change
Fresh salmon (US $/kg)
Year-over-year % change

128.3

158.4

207.2

210.4

210.9

215.6

222.8

237.2

237.1

-36.0

23.4

30.8

30.0

16.5

8.8

10.0

13.5

13.2

371.0

429.4

566.9

596.4

569.8

506.5

595.8

631.4

607.2

-29.7

15.7

32.0

57.3

29.3

-4.1

1.3

5.0

2.8

165.5

185.9

291.7

302.1

269.3

277.7

280.7

274.0

269.3

-25.8

12.3

56.9

66.2

11.5

-1.8

-3.4

-14.2

-12.5

300.5

312.4

439.6

429.8

405.2

378.1

372.9

349.8

347.3

-33.9

3.9

40.7

31.8

5.6

-15.8

-13.8

-24.1

-27.0

8.59

8.07

10.08

10.99

8.32

9.51

9.98

10.75

9.86

-3.9

-6.0

24.9

41.4

-0.1

-1.9

-7.1

-3.8

-11.7

80.4

92.0

113.3

111.3

119.0

126.7

128.0

124.0

121.0

-9.9

14.4

23.1

19.6

25.2

15.2

11.3

4.2

8.0

42.0

55.1

66.5

71.5

65.5

64.7

65.2

62.8

61.6

-11.9

31.1

20.7

18.7

28.1

7.7

3.7

-7.4

-10.2

4.92

6.15

5.91

7.03

5.21

4.36

4.95

5.08

5.03

1.5

24.9

-3.9

12.3

-17.2

-32.7

-32.0

-35.9

-29.8

71.8

99.0

120.9

120.6

114.2

112.0

105.1

101.6

94.7

-43.5

37.8

22.2

28.9

6.1

-13.1

-16.7

-16.9

-20.0

Energy
Coal (US $/tonne)
Year-over-year % change
Crude Oil (US $/barrel)
Year-over-year % change
Natural Gas (US $/mmbtu)
Year-over-year % change

61.7

79.4

95.1

89.7

94.1

102.9

106.2

103.3

94.7

-38.0

28.7

19.7

17.8

10.6

9.5

3.2

-6.1

-6.5

3.95

4.39

4.00

4.12

3.32

2.45

2.16

1.95

2.43

-55.4

11.0

-8.9

-3.7

-12.5

-41.5

-45.6

-54.0

-43.5

181.5

254.9

255.3

245.2

238.2

265.9

280.4

280.5

305.5

-17.2

40.4

0.1

10.4

-11.3

-10.4

-4.7

6.7

34.4

569.4

585.6

624.5

624.4

623.3

623.8

623.1

623.1

621.8

-15.8

2.8

6.7

8.8

2.7

0.0

-0.6

-0.3

-0.4

715.9

957.0

976.8

1022.7

995.6

920.2

870.0

893.7

900.0

-16.6

33.7

2.1

4.2

-0.8

-5.2

-11.7

-11.8

-11.7

Forest products
Lumber (US $/1000 board ft)
Year-over-year % change
Newsprint (US $/tonne)
Year-over-year % change
Pulp (US $/tonne)
Year-over-year % change

Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg, RBC Economics Research

ECONOMICS | RESEARCH

COMMODITY PRICE MONITOR | JUNE 2012

Commodity price trends

Period averages
2009

2010

2011

Q3-11

Q4-11

Q1-12

Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12

Non-precious metals & minerals

Aluminum (US $/lb)
Year-over-year % change
Copper (US $/lb)
Year-over-year % change
Iron Ore (US $/tonne)
Year-over-year % change
Lead (US $/lb)
Year-over-year % change
Nickel (US $/lb)
Year-over-year % change
Zinc (US $/lb)
Year-over-year % change
Potash (US $/tonne)
Year-over-year % change
Uranium (US $/lb)
Year-over-year % change

0.76

0.99

1.09

1.09

0.95

0.99

0.99

0.93

0.91

-35.2

30.3

10.2

14.8

-10.8

-13.0

-14.5

-23.1

-22.8

2.34

3.42

4.00

4.07

3.40

3.77

3.84

3.75

3.59

-25.7

46.0

16.9

24.0

-13.3

-13.8

-11.3

-12.9

-11.3

80.0

145.9

167.8

175.9

140.8

141.8

144.7

147.6

136.6

-48.7

82.4

15.0

28.0

-9.7

-20.6

-14.6

-17.7

-22.8

0.78

0.97

1.09

1.12

0.90

0.95

0.93

0.94

0.91

-17.7

25.0

11.8

21.2

-17.0

-19.6

-21.4

-24.7

-17.4

6.67

9.89

10.35

10.00

8.30

8.91

8.48

8.12

7.72

-30.1

48.4

4.7

4.0

-22.4

-27.0

-30.2

-32.0

-29.7

0.75

0.98

0.99

1.01

0.86

0.92

0.92

0.91

0.88

-11.3

30.1

1.5

10.5

-18.0

-15.4

-13.4

-15.8

-10.7

630.4

331.9

435.3

471.3

473.0

479.8

480.0

468.8

457.5

10.6

-47.4

31.2

41.0

37.8

28.2

26.3

13.3

9.4

46.7

46.0

56.2

51.8

52.6

51.9

51.3

51.3

51.9

-27.3

-1.5

22.4

15.4

-5.3

-19.1

-19.2

-11.3

-7.4

1702.3 1683.3

1690.7

1673.8

1649.7

1588.3

23.1

21.9

17.5

11.8

5.2

Precious metals
Gold (US $/ounce)
Year-over-year % change
Silver (US $/ounce)
Year-over-year % change

972.3
11.5

1224.3 1570.5
25.9

28.3

38.8

14.7

20.2

35.3

38.9

31.9

32.6

32.9

31.5

28.8

-2.3

37.1

75.4

104.7

20.9

2.0

-8.4

-26.0

-22.2

Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg, RBC Economics Research

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ECONOMICS | RESEARCH