Evidence

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Climate change: How do we know?

This graph, based on the comparison of atmospheric samples contained in ice cores and more recent direct
measurements, provides evidence that atmospheric CO2 has increased since the Industrial Revolution.
(Source: NOAA)

Resources

The following are the key

sources of data and
information contained on
this page:
IPCC Fourth
Assessment
Report,
Summary for
Policymakers
IPCC Fourth
Assessment
Report,
 Technical
Summary
NOAA
Paleoclimatolog
y

The Earth's climate has changed throughout history. Just in the last 650,000 years there
have been seven cycles of glacial advance and retreat, with the abrupt end of the last ice
age about 7,000 years ago marking the beginning of the modern climate era and of
human civilization. Most of these climate changes are attributed to very small variations in
Earths orbit that change the amount of solar energy our planet receives.

"Scientific evidence for

warming of the climate
system is unequivocal."
- Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change

The current warming trend is of particular significance because most of it is very likely
human-induced and proceeding at a rate that is unprecedented in the past 1,300 years.1
Earth-orbiting satellites and other technological advances have enabled scientists to see
the big picture, collecting many different types of information about our planet and its
climate on a global scale. Studying these climate data collected over many years reveal the
signals of a changing climate.
Certain facts about Earth's climate are not in dispute:
The heat-trapping nature of carbon dioxide and other gases was demonstrated in
the mid-19th century.2 Their ability to affect the transfer of infrared energy through
the atmosphere is the scientific basis of many JPL-designed instruments, such as
AIRS. Increased levels of greenhouse gases must cause the Earth to warm in
response.
Ice cores drawn from Greenland, Antarctica, and tropical mountain glaciers show
that the Earths climate responds to changes in solar output, in the Earths orbit,
and in greenhouse gas levels. They also show that in the past, large changes in
climate have happened very quickly, geologically-speaking: in tens of years, not in
millions or even thousands.3
The evidence for rapid climate change is compelling:
 Sea level rise
Global sea level rose about 17 centimeters (6.7
inches) in the last century. The rate in the last
decade, however, is nearly double that of the
last century.4

Republic of Maldives: Vulnerable to

sea level rise

Global temperature rise

All three major global surface temperature
reconstructions show that Earth has warmed
since 1880. 5 Most of this warming has
occurred since the 1970s, with the 20 warmest
years having occurred since 1981 and with all
10 of the warmest years occurring in the past 12
years. 6 Even though the 2000s witnessed a
solar output decline resulting in an unusually
deep solar minimum in 2007-2009, surface
temperatures continue to increase. 7

Warming oceans
The oceans have absorbed much of this
increased heat, with the top 700 meters (about
2,300 feet) of ocean showing warming of 0.302
degrees Fahrenheit since 1969.8
 Shrinking ice sheets
The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have
decreased in mass. Data from NASA's Gravity
Recovery and Climate Experiment show
Greenland lost 150 to 250 cubic kilometers (36
to 60 cubic miles) of ice per year between 2002
and 2006, while Antarctica lost about 152 cubic
kilometers (36 cubic miles) of ice between
2002 and 2005.

Flowing meltwater from the Greenland

ice sheet

Declining Arctic sea ice

Both the extent and thickness of Arctic sea ice
has declined rapidly over the last several
decades. 9

Visualization of the 2007 Arctic sea ice

minimum

Glacial retreat
Glaciers are retreating almost everywhere
around the world including in the Alps,
Himalayas, Andes, Rockies, Alaska and
Africa.10

The disappearing snowcap of Mount

Kilimanjaro, from space.
 Extreme events
The number of record high temperature events
in the United States has been increasing, while
the number of record low temperature events
has been decreasing, since 1950. The U.S. has
also witnessed increasing numbers of intense
rainfall events.11

Ocean acidification
Since the beginning of the Industrial
Revolution, the acidity of surface ocean waters
has increased by about 30 percent.12,13 This
increase is the result of humans emitting more
carbon dioxide into the atmosphere and hence
more being absorbed into the oceans. The
amount of carbon dioxide absorbed by the
upper layer of the oceans is increasing by about
2 billion tons per year.14,15

CAUSES

A blanket around the Earth

A layer of
greenhouse gases
primarily water
vapor, and
including much
smaller amounts
of carbon
dioxide, methane
and nitrous oxide
act as a thermal
blanket for the
Earth, absorbing
heat and warming
 the surface to a
life-supporting
average of 59
degrees
Fahrenheit (15
degrees Celsius).

Most climate scientists agree the main cause of the current global warming trend is
human expansion of the "greenhouse effect"1 -- warming that results when the
atmosphere traps heat radiating from Earth toward space.
Certain gases in the atmosphere block heat from escaping. Long-lived gases, remaining
semi-permanently in the atmosphere, which do not respond physically or chemically to
changes in temperature are described as "forcing" climate change whereas gases, such as
water, which respond physically or chemically to changes in temperature are seen as
"feedbacks."
Gases that contribute to the greenhouse effect include:
Water vapor. The most abundant greenhouse gas, but importantly, it acts as a
feedback to the climate. Water vapor increases as the Earth's atmosphere warms,
but so does the possibility of clouds and precipitation, making these some of the
most important feedback mechanisms to the greenhouse effect.
Carbon dioxide (CO2). A minor but very important component of the
atmosphere, carbon dioxide is released through natural processes such as
respiration and volcano eruptions and through human activities such as
deforestation, land use changes, and burning fossil fuels. Humans have increased
atmospheric CO2 concentration by a third since the Industrial Revolution began.
This is the most important long-lived "forcing" of climate change.
Methane. A hydrocarbon gas produced both through natural sources and human
activities, including the decomposition of wastes in landfills, agriculture, and
especially rice cultivation, as well as ruminant digestion and manure
management associated with domestic livestock. On a molecule-for-molecule
basis, methane is a far more active greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, but also
one which is much less abundant in the atmosphere.
Nitrous oxide. A powerful greenhouse gas produced by soil cultivation practices,
especially the use of commercial and organic fertilizers, fossil fuel combustion,
nitric acid production, and biomass burning.
Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). Synthetic compounds of entirely of industrial
origin used in a number of applications, but now largely regulated in production
 and release to the atmosphere by international agreement for their ability to
contribute to destruction of the ozone layer. They are also greenhouse gases .

Not enough greenhouse effect: The planet Mars has a very thin atmosphere, nearly all
carbon dioxide. Because of the low atmospheric pressure, and with little to no methane or
water vapor to reinforce the weak greenhouse effect, Mars has a largely frozen surface that
shows no evidence of life.

Too much greenhouse effect: The atmosphere of Venus, like Mars, is nearly all carbon
dioxide. But Venus has about 300 times as much carbon dioxide in its atmosphere as Earth
and Mars do, producing a runaway greenhouse effect and a surface temperature hot
enough to melt lead.

On Earth, human activities are changing the natural greenhouse. Over the last century
the burning of fossil fuels like coal and oil has increased the concentration of
atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). This happens because the coal or oil burning process
combines carbon with oxygen in the air to make CO 2. To a lesser extent, the clearing of
land for agriculture, industry, and other human activities have increased concentrations
of greenhouse gases.
The consequences of changing the natural atmospheric greenhouse are difficult to
predict, but certain effects seem likely:
On average, Earth will become warmer. Some regions may welcome warmer
temperatures, but others may not.
Warmer conditions will probably lead to more evaporation and precipitation
overall, but individual regions will vary, some becoming wetter and others dryer.
A stronger greenhouse effect will warm the oceans and partially melt glaciers
and other ice, increasing sea level. Ocean water also will expand if it warms,
contributing further to sea level rise.
Meanwhile, some crops and other plants may respond favorably to increased
atmospheric CO2, growing more vigorously and using water more efficiently. At
the same time, higher temperatures and shifting climate patterns may change the
areas where crops grow best and affect the makeup of natural plant communities.
The role of human activity
In its recently released Fourth Assessment Report, the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change, a group of 1,300 independent scientific experts from countries all over
the world under the auspices of the United Nations, concluded there's a more than 90
percent probability that human activities over the past 250 years have warmed our
planet.
The industrial activities that our modern civilization depends upon have raised
atmospheric carbon dioxide levels from 280 parts per million to 379 parts per million in
the last 150 years. The panel also concluded there's a better than 90 percent probability
that human-produced greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous
oxide have caused much of the observed increase in Earth's temperatures over the past
50 years.
They said the rate of increase in global warming due to these gases is very likely to be
unprecedented within the past 10,000 years or more. The panel's full Summary for
Policymakers report is online at Solar irradiance
It's reasonable to assume that changes in the sun's energy output would cause the climate
to change, since the sun is the fundamental source of energy that drives our climate
system.
Indeed, studies show that solar variability has played a role in past climate changes. For
example, a decrease in solar activity is thought to have triggered the Little Ice Age
between approximately 1650 and 1850, when Greenland was largely cut off by ice from
1410 to the 1720s and glaciers advanced in the Alps.
But several lines of evidence show that current global warming cannot be explained by
changes in energy from the sun:
Since 1750, the average amount of energy coming from the Sun either remained
constant or increased slightly.
If the warming were caused by a more active sun, then scientists would expect to
see warmer temperatures in all layers of the atmosphere. Instead, they have
observed a cooling in the upper atmosphere, and a warming at the surface and in
the lower parts of the atmosphere. That's because greenhouse gasses are trapping
heat in the lower atmosphere.
Climate models that include solar irradiance changes cant reproduce the
observed temperature trend over the past century or more without including a
rise in greenhouse gases.
Effects

The current and future consequences of global change

Global climate change has already had observable

effects on the environment. Glaciers have shrunk, ice
on rivers and lakes is breaking up earlier, plant and
animal ranges have shifted and trees are flowering
sooner.
Effects that scientists had predicted in the past would
result from global climate change are now occuring:
loss of sea ice, accelerated sea level rise and longer,
more intense heat waves.

"Taken as a whole, the

range of published
evidence indicates that the
net damage costs of climate
change are likely to be
significant and to increase
over time."
- Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change

Scientists have high confidence that global

temperatures will continue to rise for decades to
come, largely due to greenhouse gasses produced by
human activities. The Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC), which includes more than
1,300 scientists from the United States and other
countries, forecasts a temperature rise of 2.5 to 10
degrees Fahrenheit over the next century.
According to the IPCC, the extent of climate change
effects on individual regions will vary over time and
with the ability of different societal and
environmental systems to mitigate or adapt to
change.
The IPCC predicts that increases in global mean
temperature of less than 1.8 to 5.4 degrees
Fahrenheit (1 to 3 degrees Celsius) above 1990
levels will produce beneficial impacts in some
regions and harmful ones in others. Net annual costs
will increase over time as global temperatures
increase.
"Taken as a whole," the IPCC states, "the range of
published evidence indicates that the net damage
costs of climate change are likely to be significant
and to increase over time." 1
Below are some of the regional impacts of global
change forecast by the IPCC:
North America: Decreasing snowpack in the
western mountains; 5-20 percent increase in
yields of rain-fed agriculture in some
regions; increased frequency, intensity and
duration of heat waves in cities that currently
experience them.2
Latin America: Gradual replacement of
tropical forest by savannah in eastern
Amazonia; risk of significant biodiversity
loss through species extinction in many
tropical areas; significant changes in water
availability for human consumption,
agriculture and energy generation.3
Europe: Increased risk of inland flash
floods; more frequent coastal flooding and
increased erosion from storms and sea level
rise; glacial retreat in mountainous areas;
reduced snow cover and winter tourism;
extensive species losses; reductions of crop
productivity in southern Europe.4
Africa: By 2020, between 75 and 250
million people are projected to be exposed to
increased water stress; yields from rain-fed
agriculture could be reduced by up to 50
percent in some regions by 2020; agricultural
production, including access to food, may be
severely compromised.5
Asia: Freshwater availability projected to
decrease in Central, South, East and
Southeast Asia by the 2050s; coastal areas
will be at risk due to increased flooding;
death rate from disease associated with
floods and droughts expected to rise in some
regions.6
Global Climate Change: Recent Impacts7
Phenomena Likelihood that
trend occurred in
 late 20th century
Cold days, cold nights and Very likely
frost less frequent over land
areas
More frequent hot days and Very likely
nights
Heat waves more frequent Likely
over most land areas
Increased incidence of Likely
extreme high sea level *
Global area affected by Likely in some
drought has increased regions
(since 1970s)
Increase in intense tropical Likely in some
cyclone activity in North regions
Atlantic (since 1970)

* Excluding tsunamis, which are not due to climate

change.
Global Climate Change: Future Trends8
Likelihood of
Phenomena
trend
Contraction of snow cover Virtually certain
areas, increased thaw in
permafrost regions, decrease
in sea ice extent
Increased frequency of hot Very likely to occur
extremes, heat waves and
heavy precipitation
Increase in tropical cyclone Likely to occur
intensity
Precipitation increases in high Very likely to occur
latitudes
Precipitation decreases in Very likely to occur
subtropical land regions
Decreased water resources in High confidence
 many semi-arid areas,
including western U.S. and
Mediterranean basin

Uncertainties

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Unresolved questions about Earth's climate

Extreme
Ultraviole
t Imaging
Telescope
(EIT)
image of
the sun
with a
huge,
handle-
shaped
prominen
ce, taken
in 1999.
While
there is no
evidence
of a
change
trend in
solar
output
over the
past half
century,
long-term
changes in
solar
output are
not well-
understoo
d.
This website presents a data-rich view of climate and a discussion of how that data
fits together into the scientists' current picture of our changing climate. But there's a
great deal that we don't know about the future of Earth's climate and how climate
change will affect humans.
For convenience and clarity, climate scientists separate things that affect climate
change into two categories: forcings and feedbacks (see sidebar at right).
Also, climate scientists often discuss "abrupt climate change," which includes the
possibility of "tipping points" in the Earth's climate. Climate appears to have several
states in which it is relatively stable over long periods of time. But when climate
moves between those states, it can do so quickly (geologically speaking), in hundreds
of years and even, in a handful of cases, in only a few decades. These rapid 'state
changes' are what scientists mean by abrupt climate change. They are much more
common at regional scales than at the global scale, but can be global. State changes
have triggers, or "tipping points," that are related to feedback processes. In what's
probably the single largest uncertainty in climate science, scientists don't have much
confidence that they know what those triggers are.
Below is an explanation of just a few other important uncertainties about climate
change, organized according to the categories forcing and feedback. This list isn't
exhaustive. It is intended to illustrate the kinds of questions that scientists still ask
about climate.
Forcings
1. Solar Irradiance. The sun has a well-known 11-year irradiance cycle that
produces about .1% variation in output.1 Solar irradiance has been measured
by satellite daily since the late 1970s, and this known solar cycle is
incorporated into climate models. There is some evidence from proxy
measurements-sunspot counts going back centuries, measurements from
ancient trees, and others-that solar output varies over longer periods of time,
too. While there is currently no evidence of a trend in solar output over the
past half century, because there are no direct observations of solar output
prior to the 1970s, climate scientists do not have much confidence that they
understand longer-term solar changes. A number of U.S. and international
spacecraft study the sun.
2. Aerosols, dust, smoke, and soot. These come from both human and natural
sources. They also have very different effects on climate. Sulfate aerosols,
which result from burning coal, biomass, and volcanic eruptions, tend to cool
the Earth. Increasing industrial emissions of sulfates is believed to have
caused a cooling trend in the Northern Hemisphere from the 1940s to the
1970s. But other kinds of particles have the opposite effect. The global
distribution of aerosols has only been tracked for about a decade from the
ground and from satellites, but those measurements cannot yet reliably
distinguish between types of particulates. So aerosol forcing is another
 substantial uncertainty in predictions of future climate.
Feedbacks
3. Clouds. Clouds have an enormous impact on Earth's climate, reflecting back
into space about one third of the total amount of sunlight that hits the Earth's
atmosphere. As the atmosphere warms, cloud patterns may change, altering
the amount of sunlight absorbed by the Earth. Because clouds are such
powerful climate actors, even small changes in average cloud amounts,
locations, and type could speed warming, slow it, or even reverse it. Current
climate models do not represent cloud physics well, so the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change has consistently rated clouds among its highest
research priorities. NASA and its research partners in industry, academia, and
other nations have a small flotilla of spacecraft and aircraft studying clouds
and the closely related phenomenon of aerosols.
4. Carbon cycle. Currently, natural processes remove about half of each year's
human carbon dioxide emissions from the atmosphere, although this varies a
bit year to year. It isn't well understood where this carbon dioxide goes, with
some evidence that the oceans are the major repository and other evidence
that land biota absorbs the majority. There is also some evidence that the
ability of the Earth system to continue absorbing it may decline as the world
warms, leading to faster accumulation in the atmosphere. But this possibility
isn't well understood either. The planned Orbiting Carbon Observatory
mission will mark NASA's first attempt to answer some of these questions via
space observations.
5. Ocean circulation. One very popular hypothesis about climate change is that
as the Earth as a whole warms, ocean circulation in the Atlantic will change
to produce cooling in Western Europe. In its most extreme form, this
hypothesis has advancing European ice sheets triggering a new ice age. A
global-warming induced ice age is not considered very likely among climate
scientists. But the idea highlights the importance of ocean circulation in
maintaining regional climates. Global ocean data sets only extend back to the
early 1990s, so there are large uncertainties in predictions of future ocean
changes.
6. Precipitation. Human civilization is dependent upon where and when rain
and snow fall. We need it for drinking water and for growing our food. Global
climate models show that precipitation will generally increase, but not in all
regions. Some regions will dry instead. Scientists and policymakers would
like to use climate models to assess regional changes, but the models
currently show wide variation in their results. For just one example, some
models forecast less precipitation in the American southwest, where JPL is,
while others foresee more precipitation. This lack of agreement on even the
direction of change makes planning very difficult. There's much research to
 be done on this question.
7. Sea level rise. In its 2007 Fourth Assessment Report, the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change used new satellite data to conclude that shrinkage
of ice sheets may contribute more to sea level rise than it had thought as
recently as 2001. The panel concluded that it could not "provide a best
estimate or an upper bound for sea level rise" over the next century due to
their lack of knowledge about Earth's ice.2 There are 5-6 meters worth of sea
level in the Greenland ice sheet, and 6-7 meters in the West Antarctic Ice
Sheet, while the much larger East Antarctic Ice Sheet is probably not
vulnerable to widespread melting in the next century. Many hundreds of
millions of people live within that range of sea level increase, so our inability
to predict what sea level rise is likely over the next century has substantial
human and economic ramifications.