Darvin Lisica

RISK MANAGEMENT IN MINE ACTION PLANNING

2006

Original title: Darvin Lisica: UPRAVLJANJE RIZICIMA U PLANIRANJU PROTUMINSKIH AKCIJA, 2006 Publisher: Bosnia and Herzegovina Ministry of Civil Affairs Norwegian Peoples Aid Bosnia and Herzegovina Mine Action Programme For publisher: Mustafa Alikadi Per Hakon Breivik Reviews: Prof. Dr. sci. Izet Beridan Brigadier David Rowe, psc, jssc Translation: enja Kasumovi, BA in English and English literature Desktop Publishing: ani Fazlagi Layout and print: DES, Sarajevo Edition: 500
----------------------------------------------------CIP - Katalogizacija u publikaciji Nacionalna i univerzitetska biblioteka Bosne i Hercegovine, Sarajevo 623.958:005] (497.6) LISICA, Darvin Risk management in mine action planning / Darvin Lisica ; [translation enja Kasumovi] . Sarajevo : Ministry of Civil Affairs, 2006. - 251 str. : graf. prikazi ; 24 cm Prijevod djela: Upravljanje rizicima u planiranju protuminskih akcija. - Bibliograja i biljeke uz tekst ISBN 9958-9152-1-9 COBISS.BH-ID 15480838 -----------------------------------------------------

To my wife Gordana For her understanding and support during the research and preparation of this book.

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RISK MANAGEMENT IN MINE ACTION PLANNING

Content
PREFACE .................................................................................................................7 INTRODUCTION...................................................................................................10 1.
1.1. 1.2. 1.3. 1.4.

RISK THEORY AND MINE ACTION MANAGEMENT ..........................1

Risk, risk agents, hazard and vulnerability..............................................................12 Risk analysis............................................................................................................14 Risk management.....................................................................................................19 Risk communication ..............................................................................................28

2.
2.1. 2.2. 2.3.

CAUSES OF RISKS FROM MINES AND ERW........................................32

Armed conicts and their effects upon distribution of mines and ERW ..............................................................................................................32 Modern landmines and explosive remnants of war.................................................37 The Character of war in Bosnia and Herzegovina and the distribution of mines and ERW.....................................................................................................42

3.
3.1. 3.2. 3.3. 3.4.

INTERNATIONAL LAW, POLICY AND STRATEGIES FOR THE PROTECTION FROM MINES AND ERW.................................................46
International law and protection from mines and ERW.......................................46 Mine action..............................................................................................................51 United Nations policy and strategies for the protection from mines and ERW.....................................................................................................................54 The European Union policy and strategy for the protection from mines and ERW.........................................................................................................59

4.
4.1. 4.1.1. 4.1.2. 4.1.3. 4.1.4. 4.1.5. 4.1.6. 4.1.7. 4.2. 4.3. 4.4.

IMPACT OF LEFTOVER MINES AND ERW ON POST-CONFLICT COUNTRIES.....................................................................................................2

The problem of leftover mines and UXO in Bosnia and Herzegovina....................62 General assessment of mine situation....................................................................62 Mines and mineelds in Bosnia and Herzegovina...............................................63 Military mine lifting in Bosnia and Herzegovina, 1997-1998 ........................75 Socio-economic impact of mines and UXO in Bosnia and Herzegovina................................................................................................78 Analysis of mine and UXO casualties in Bosnia and Herzegovina.............................81 Mine suspected areas in Bosnia and Herzegovina.............................86 How many laid mines are there in Bosnia and Herzegovina? .............................90 Problem of leftover mines and ERW in the Southeast Europe as a result of post1991 armed conicts...............................................................................................95 Post conict problem of mines and ERW in some other countries ...................101 Comparative indicators for mine and ERW-affected countries....................106

5. DEVELOPMENT OF MINE ACTION IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA...115

5.1. Development of structure, resources and legislation since 1996.......................115

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5.3. 5.4. 5.5.

Mine and UXO risk education.............................................................................129 Assistance to mine and UXO victims...................................................................135 Impact of mine action operations on the implementation of Annex 7: The Agreement on Refugees and Displaced Persons of the Dayton peace Agreement...........136

6.
6.1. 6.2. 6.3.

MINE ACTION PLANNING IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA.........140

Mine action strategic planning in Bosnia and Herzegovina.........................140 Operational planning of mine action in Bosnia and Herzegovina .....................147 A model for setting priorities for mine action in Bosnia and Herzegovina..............................................................................................149

7.
7.1. 7.2. 7.3. 7.5.

MINE ACTION PLANNING IN COMMUNITIES AFFECTED BY MINES AND ERW......................................................................................................151

Development of planning in communities affected by mines and ERW........151 A model of integrated mine action planning in communities affected by mines and ERW...............................................................................................................152 Results of the integrated approach in mine action planning in Bosnia and Herzegovina...............................................................................................175 Case studies of mine affected communities in Bosnia and Herzegovina................................................................................................192

8.

THE MINE AND UXO RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL AND MINE ACTION PLANNING IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA....................202

CONCLUDING REMARKS................................................................................204 ACRONYMS.........................................................................................................208 GLOSSARY OF TECHNICAL TERMS.............................................................211 REFERENCE AND OTHER SOURCES OF DATA.........................................216 LIST OF GRAPHICS...........................................................................................225 LIST OF GRAPHS................................................................................................227 LIST OF TABLES.................................................................................................227 LIST OF MAPS.....................................................................................................227 LIST OF APPENDICES.......................................................................................227 Appendix 1: Measuring mine and ERW-risk in B&H.......................................229 Appendix 2: Model of an integrated mine action plan for the community affected by mines and ERW........................................................................................243 Appendix 3: Survey of households in four highly affected communities.........250 6

RISK MANAGEMENT IN MINE ACTION PLANNING

PREFACE Mine action is a relatively new endeavour stemming largely from the plethora of conicts following the end of the Cold War. It, as will be described in this book, is a multifaceted activity attempting to deal with the threat of vast areas contaminated or suspected to be contaminated with landmines or other explosive remnants of war; vast areas mostly in countries that can least afford to manage the problem and generally where national government and infrastructure are in post conict disarray, or at best under pressure. Humanitarian ambitions principally related to victims, of whom there are approximately thousands, drove the initial response to this problem and led to the Ottawa Convention in 1997. More than 150 countries are signatories to this agreement which, among other things, bans the production, transport and use of antipersonnel land mines and commits signatories to removing all such mines from their countries within ten years of signature. At the same time a considerable infrastructure, based on UN and partner agencies plus large Non Government Organizations, has developed in order to globally coordinate and physically assist in the management and removal of this complication. Yet despite the high ideals expressed in the Ottawa Convention, UN Mine Action Strategy, International Mine Action Standards and many other formal agreements and policies at international and national level a fundamental reality remains to be addressed and that is the practicality of identifying the scope of the problem, which is growing as new conicts appear, and more specically the cost of addressing that reality if we are to follow the letter of the law. What that cost would be has, as far as I know, not been identied; perhaps because it is simply not possible to accurately do so given the number of variables involved, or possibly because it is not attractive or productive to do so. It would however be a very impressive gure that conservatively could easily be billions of US Dollars. This book is about confronting this situation and seeks to develop a management approach in mine action that can achieve ideals while remaining within the realm of reality in terms of resource availability and time. I am sure this was not an easy book to write. Mine action is a young activity and as such there is a limited knowledge base even among those who are current practitioners, let alone outsiders who may be interested in the subject; the author therefore correctly chose to provide a great deal of detail, background information and explanation. Risk management is also a relatively new eld of study and a similar approach was necessary if the book is to be a useful tool in developing effective mine action. 7

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Many, if not most, examples are drawn from experiences in Bosnia and Herzegovina. This is not a form of nepotism; rather it is a reection of the Bosnia and Herzegovina situation in relation to the global picture. The timing, nature and extent of the mine threat, status of government and public bodies, socio-economic situation and legal environment were such that the Bosnia and Herzegovina mine action authorities had to nd a realistic way forward that would meet the spirit of the Ottawa Convention while at the same time demonstrating progress in a way that maintained community, government and donor condence. This was a specic circumstance that arguably, if not already doing so, will be repeated in many other mine affected countries around the World. The use of the Bosnia and Herzegovina experience as the template for this book is therefore realistic. The book, correctly, does not offer universal solutions. That would be pointless if only on the basis that mine action is almost completely country specic and the key to success in one country may well be completely unsuitable in another. Darvins work does however offer valuable information for those looking for ideas to support more imaginative and effective mine action plans; more so it offers detailed justication for those ideas, and justication is an absolute base requirement for any forays into the world of risk management in such a high risk high cost environment. It is therefore up to the readers to draw what may be appropriate for their need but, having said that, there are a number of elements or themes that probably apply broadly across the global mine action spectrum. The rst is perhaps not highlighted enough in the book but is extremely important to the whole process of risk management, and that is that Bosnia and Herzegovina authorities accepted responsibility for resolution of the mine problem very early in the overall process and local authorities were immediately faced with a large problem in a very complex resource poor environment. Their attention was therefore forced toward risk management planning and decision making and it is highly unlikely that this challenging route would have been chosen had any alternative been available. It is fair to say that where a government exists only that government can make the basic decisions as to what level of risk, in all elements of the environment, is acceptable or not within the boundaries of a country. Early transition to national ownership brings many potential complications but it is a fundamental requirement if risk management is to be part of a national mine action strategy; and that process of strategy development in Bosnia and Herzegovina is the second element I would like to highlight. Why is it interesting in the context of this book?....because Bosnia and Herzegovina has had two strategies. The rst was prepared under pressure and largely in isolation within the structure of the mine action authorities, it avoided any consideration of risk management by adopting an aim of complete removal of mines within the Ottawa Convention timeframe, and the selection of the best strategic option was made at the Mine Action Centre and then referred to government for approval. The second strategy was based upon an aim of containing the threat within the Ottawa timeframe and involved comparison of realistic operational assets and support resources (principally funding) against the

RISK MANAGEMENT IN MINE ACTION PLANNING

known threat in a combination using all elements of mine action. As described in this book, the mine action authorities deliberately ensured the detailed involvement of all interested parties in working groups at the operational and strategic level and presented their results to government in a number of options representing various levels of reality. Government then selected the best option and in so doing endorsed the process of risk management and the level of risk acceptable in their country; all interested parties, national and international, were then obliged to support that policy. Involvement of all parties and decision making at the highest level of government appears to work; the proof being in the fullment of the annual plans which have been drawn from the detailed objectives of the second Bosnia and Herzegovina strategy. The third element is the emphasis on integrated community based planning. The description of this aspect and the part of mine risk education within it is extensive but I would argue that the critical part of this process in relation to risk management is simple and it is the involvement of the community as a decision making partner. Within the general limits of risk described by government the community is able to input that which is acceptable and manageable within its micro environment. This notion is not complicated but it is a fundamental that is perhaps often overlooked. Interestingly there is a common thread between the three areas I mention and that thread is a mixture of communication and planning at all levels from government through the mine action structure to the smallest community in the eld. In Bosnia and Herzegovina all levels understood the meaning and implications of risk management as it applied to their position and situation; as such plans could not only be made they could also be effectively implemented. Overall I believe this manuscript should attract the attention of those seeking to take mine action forward; those practitioners who are prepared to face the challenge of the sheer enormity of the threat and to make decisions that will connect ambition with reality. It should also be of interest to those seeking to draw lessons that may be useful in the application of risk management to other scenarios. David Rowe

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INTRODUCTION

Dealing with mines and other explosive ordnance (ERW)1 left over from armed conicts, in the context of the overall socio-economic reality of mine-affected countries, is a complex problem. On the one hand, it is a problem of their physical presence in the country a long time after the cessation of conict, with their detection and clearance becoming more difcult, complicated particularly by their resistance to weathering factors, soil and other environmental impacts. The other side of the problem is the impact of leftover mines and ERW on the socio-economic development of the affected country, particularly on the development priorities in the circumstances of the struggle against poverty. Putting both sides of the problem in the context of risk theory and risk management is the research topic elaborated in this book. A special challenge of the research was the question: How to make protection against mines and ERW more efcient and how to improve mine action planning? The mine action management process consists of functions similar to those that make up any security system. They are planning, organization, task assignment, harmonization or coordination and inspection.2 All of these functions, at various stages of development, can be found in mine action operations. This book deals predominantly with mine action planning. Why? Because it is unlikely that the system, when in later stages, can eliminate mistakes that were made in the process of risk assessment, deciding about priorities and in the adopted plans, i.e. in the planning process in a wider sense. The complexity of the problem of leftover mines and ERW, which appeared as a result of comparatively simple and cheap weapons, makes the research in this eld more difcult. Dealing with this problem opens a series of questions that need answers. Some of those questions are: 1. What is the impact of the nature of the conict on the mine and ERW problem and its management in the post conict period 2. What are the reasons for slow progress in tackling the problems of mines and ERW in the world, including Bosnia and Herzegovina? What are the especially important questions: (1) Is the process of assessing and solving the mine and ERW problem adequate? (2) Why arent the baselines of risk theory and risk management theory applied sufciently? (3) Are human and other resources exploited sufciently? 3. In which direction should one develop the system of assessing the risk from mines and ERW and its socio-economic impact in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and on that basis improve the system of planning, organization and implementation
1 Unexploded ordnance (UXO) and abandoned explosive ordnance (AXO) constitute explosive remnants of war (ERW). 2 Tatalovi S.: Upravljanje u politikim sustavima i sustavima obrane (Management in Political and Defence Systems), DEFIMI, Zagreb, 1996, page 20.

10

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of mine action operations? Here are especially important questions: (1) How to improve the system of assessment and planning at the strategic and operational level and their correlation? (2) How to connect different elements of mine action operations in a single process at the level of a community threatened by mines and ERW, and what are the advantages of this integrated approach? (3) Which model of priority setting in mine action operations should be applied in Bosnia and Herzegovina in order to establish a more efcient procedure for deciding about the use of available resources for achieving the best results in mine and ERW risk reduction? The risks that appear as a result of the physical presence of leftover mines and ERW are diverse. It is important to identify and measure the risks and to establish the condition of vulnerability of various social groups and the successful method for the elimination or reduction of those risks to an acceptable level. The theory and practice of managing environmental and health risks have been applied in a wide spectrum of activities, from ecology to business management. Its application in mine action operations, especially in terms of planning at the strategic and operational level, and at the level of a mine-affected community, has been directed toward efcient measures for mine and ERW risk reduction. The long term nature of the problem and limited nancial and material resources, with which the best possible results have to be achieved, highlight the special importance of priority setting as a mine action element. Risk management is, ultimately, an efcient method in setting priorities and realistic goals in mine action planning. The problem of mines and ERW is a result of the war in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Now it has a pronounced impact on the overall socio-economic development of the country. The agreement on the military aspects of the General Framework Agreement for Peace in Bosnia and Herzegovina obliged the signing parties to solve mine problems promptly. It was foreseen for all mines and ERW in the separation zone to be cleared within one month after the international forces for peace implementation took over their mandate, and for all mineelds to be marked and recorded within four months. Unfortunately, the problem was not resolved in accordance with the ambitions of the Dayton Peace Agreement and, realistically speaking, it simply cannot be solved in a limited period. Bosnia and Herzegovina is among 84 countries of the world affected by mines left over from conicts, where 15-20 thousand people are killed or injured every year. Currently there are between 300 and 400 thousand mine survivors in the world. The impact and consequences of mines on the development of mine-affected countries have not been explored in detail. Adequate solutions are sought in order to make best use of available resources, establish a rm link between development goals of the country and measures taken in prevention and removal of mine and ERW hazards, especially those hindering or slowing down the progress of society in general.

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1.

RISK THEORY AND MINE ACTION MANAGEMENT

1.1.

Risk, risk agents, hazard and vulnerability

Risk The word risk originates from the old Italian word risicare, and translates as challenge. When we speak about risk, we are basically concerned with the issue of how much freedom we have in making a choice whether to accept a challenge of some activities or not3. Uncertainty and risk are integral parts of any activity. This basic concept resulted in various denitions of risk. A Study of the Royal British Society (1983) denes risk as probability that a particular adverse event occurs during a stated period of time, or results from particular challenge. As a probability in the sense of statistical theory, risk obeys all formal laws of complex probability.4 In its 1992 report, the Society denes risk as a combination of the likelihood or frequency of occurrence of a dened hazard and the magnitude of consequences of that event. The same report denes economic risks as nancial losses associated with a product, system or company that caused production loss, harm or other nancial repercussions because of a potential hazard.5 Cohrssen and Covello offer a simple technical denition of risk to health and environment a possibility of suffering harm or loss because of a danger.6 In terms of risk assessment, it can be dened as a probability that something causes harm, combined with the gravity of potential harm.7 Handmer and Penning-Rowsell conclude that all denitions of risk may be divided in three main groups. The rst group consists of statistical denitions in which risk is denoted as a probability of an accident. The second group denes risk as a product of likelihood of occurrence and the gravity of impact or degree of potential harm. The third group of denitions of risk deals with the distribution of power in a society and apportionment of costs and benets, resulting from a hazardous situation.8 Based upon the denition of environmental risks,9 the term risk in mine action operations is dened as a probability that an accident/adversity happens in a certain period of time as a result of a mine threat, affecting people, property and environment.
3 4 5 6 Bernstein P.: Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk, Wiley & S, New York, 1996, page 8. Adams J.: Risk, Taylor and Francis, London, 1995, page 8. Risk: Analysis, Perception and Management, Report of Royal Society SG, London, 1992, page 4 - 5. Cohrssen, J. and Covello V.T.: Risk Analysis: A Guide to Principles and Methods for Analyzing Health and Environmental Risks, United States Council on Environmental Quality, Executive Ofce of the President of US, Washington, 1989, page 7. 7 Risk: Analysis, Perception and Management. Report of Royal Society SG, London, 1992, page 371. 8 Handmer J. and Penning-Rowsell E.: Hazards and the communication of risk, Gower Publishing Company Ltd, Aldershot, Hants-England, Brookeld, Vt., USA, 1990, page 6 7. 9 Risk: Analysis, Perception and Management. Report of Royal Society SG, London, 1992, page 6.

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RISK THEORY AND MINE ACTION MANAGEMENT

Risk agents Risk agents may be chemical substances, biological organisms, radioactive materials or devices, activities or phenomena that, under certain circumstances, may cause adverse health or environmental effects.10 An important characteristic of risk agents is the level of exposure to a risk agent, which is usually measured in the course of hazard identication. Risk agents exist regardless of the potential hazardous event they cause. They result from natural or human activities. From the aspect of mine and ERW risks, risk agents and their emergence may be viewed in several ways. On the phenomenal side, it is armed conicts that cause the emergence of risk agents. A study into an armed conict, particularly into its characteristics, from the aspect of use of mine and explosive ordnance, may offer a clearer picture of risk agents. Mines and ERW themselves, as devices, constitute risk agents. Their analysis includes studying the technical characteristics of mines and ERW, the way of emplacing mineelds and their position as well as the spread of ERW, age of mineelds and other characteristics important for measuring exposure to risk agents. Hazard is a source of risk A hazard is a situation that may happen in the course of the life of product, system or factory and possesses the potential to cause human injuries, property damage, harm to the environment or economic loss. 11 Hazard does not necessarily lead to risk. It is a condition in which a harmful effect may be produced under certain circumstances, as a consequence of exposure to a risk agent. Environmental hazard is an occurrence or continuing process that, if realised, will lead to a potentially hazardous situation. That situation may directly or indirectly reduce the environmental quality for a shorter or longer period of time.12 Hazard, in combination with the impact it produces or may potentially produce, is a main characteristic of risk. Without identifying the hazard, potential risks cannot be dened. Vulnerability Any society is to a certain extent vulnerable to natural, technical and social hazards. Vulnerability implies the characteristics of persons or groups related to their ability to anticipate, cope with, resist or recover from a risk or potential risk.13 Vulnerability is a condition of a group in danger and it depends on a number of factors (social, economic, cultural, geographic, religious, perception of risk, communication and
10 Cohrssen, J. and Covello V.T.: Risk Analysis: A Guide to Principles and Methods for Analyzing Health and Environmental Risks, United States Council on Environmental Quality, Executive Ofce of the President of US, Washington, 1989, page 7. 11 Risk: Analysis, Perception and Management. Report of Royal Society SG, London, 1992, page 4. 12 Same, page 6.
13

Blaikie P., Cannon T., Davis I. and Wisner B.: At Risk. Natural Hazards, Peoples Vulnerability and Disaster, Routledge, London - New York, 1994, page 9.

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nature of risk). Vulnerability is a criterion for measuring the success of risk reduction activities and the socio-economic impact of risk

1.2.

Risk analysis

Risk analysis as a research method Risk analysis is a relatively new discipline, developed in the last 35 years into an organized body of knowledge and methods14 Risk analysis includes a number of techniques that can be used in uncertain situations, when it is not clear what would be the consequences and potential harm of future developments. According to Cohrssen and Covell, environmental and health risk analysis consists of four interconnected phases, each of which has its own methods and techniques. Those are: hazard identication, risk assessment, assessment of risk importance, and risk communication analysis.15 Identication of risk to human health and public environment species whether a risk agent (substance or activity), under expected circumstances, can produce harm. Various techniques are applied in the process of hazard identication. Some of those used for risks to human health: epidemiologic studies, in vivo bioanalysis of animals, short-time in vitro tests of cells and tissues and analyses of the structureactivity relationship.16 There are various perceptions of the connection between risk analysis and risk assessment. While many authors use the term risk assessment as a wider notion or synonym for risk analysis, Cohrssen and Covello see risk assessment as the second stage of risk analysis. The reasons they use in support of that are analytical procedures that are used in risk assessment and are convenient for the estimation of likelihood and severity of harm, produced by exposure to a risk agent.17 (1) The rst analytical procedure assessment of source /release of risk includes the estimation of quantity, frequency, location and release of a risk agent in a certain environment. (2) The procedure of risk-exposure assessment is meant to provide quantitative information on population and ecosystem that is or may be exposed to a risk
14

Cohrssen, J. and Covello V.T.: Risk Analysis: A Guide to Principles and Methods for Analyzing Health and Environmental Risks, United States Council on Environmental Quality, Executive Ofce of the President of US, Washington, 1989, page 1. Same, page 3. Same, page 27. Same, page 55.

15 16 17

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agent, including the risk agent concentration, duration of exposure and other characteristics. (3) Dose-response assessment is a procedure that provides information on the impact of a risk agent on the organs and tissues of exposed individuals or groups. This procedure serves to estimate the level of the populations vulnerability. (4) Risk characterization is a procedure that puts together results of previous procedures in the risk report. The reports content depends on the nature of risk and objective of analysis, and it usually contains a description of risk and numeric values to denote certain risk features (likelihood of occurrence, risk magnitude, risk duration, relative risk, standardized mortality ratio, etc.). Establishing the importance of risk is the third stage in which risk acceptance is established. A certain activity is connected with many risks. All of them cannot be eliminated or reduced, because it is not possible or necessary in view of the insignicant damage they can produce. The borderline between the risks subject to treatment and those that will not be treated is called the acceptable level of risk. The procedure identies alternatives to replace risk-causing activities, and assesses risks that come with alternative activities. It also analyzes the balance between the expected results and costs that will be produced by risk reduction. The analysis of risk communication includes four main groups of problems:18 (1) Problems in conveying messages or information created as a result of risk analysis. This refers to the insufcient use of well-known models and methods of analysis, essentially a weak scientic basis. Such an approach results in supercial and unreliable risk estimations. On the other hand, a highly professional risk analysis is for the majority of people hard to understand and may also create a negative effect with decision-makers; (2) Problems with information sources. Lack of condence in those responsible, disagreement among experts, lack of available data, lack of success in detecting limitations of risk assessment, limited interest, indifference and weaknesses in setting priorities, use of bureaucratic language and other negative factors may make the collection and processing of information more difcult; (3) Problems with communication channels and problems with information receivers. Biased media reporting, prejudice, releasing scientic information prematurely, simplifying, interpreting risk information wrongly or inaccurately will make the process of risk management rather difcult. The constraints of information receivers are related to imprecise risk perception, lack of interest in risk-caused problems, excessive self-esteem, rm beliefs and opinions that increase resistance to changes, too high expectations of a risk reduction activity, etc.)
18

Same, page 99 - 101

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In their book Introduction to the Management of Risk19, Scarff, Carty and Charette dene risk analysis as a process that precedes risk management, a process which includes a comprehensive identication and quantitative denition of risk, with a denition of its acceptable level. Risk analysis seen in that way consists of three interdependent activities: risk identication, risk estimation and risk evaluation. Risk identication entails perceiving and recognizing new risks or new parameters and existing risk relationships. It consists of three steps: (1) Setting a proper context and perspective for analysis, (2) Collecting risk-related information, and (3) Classication of risks by cause. Risk estimation is a process of estimating the likelihood and consequences of the identied risk. Risk estimation consists of three steps: (1) Dening the likelihood, consequences, and time frame of the identied risk, (2) Risk review and estimation, and (3) Classifying risks in the original order, arranged by priority. Therefore, by combining the values of likelihood of a hazardous event and their possible consequences, one establishes values of risk, groups them in priority order, and determines the level of acceptability. This is the rst step in setting priorities for risk treatment. Risk evaluation is a process in which risk is compared against the criteria previously described; potential benet and risk treatment costs. It consists of four steps: (1) Identifying risk indicators for planning (when necessary), (2) Making risk assessment by using adequate techniques and establishing their level, (3) Creating alternative ways for dealing with risks whose criteria have not achieved the level of acceptability, and reestimating them, and (4) Risk classication and nal order on the list of risk treatment priorities. Aven combines together risk analysis and reliability analysis. He sees them as the systematic methods that provide for a basis for: priority setting, risk acceptability and reliability, protability evaluation of a project, drafting safe and efcient procedures for operations or inspection of the process, systematic description of unwanted events and their possible consequences, promotion of knowledge and development of motivation and abilities to systematically insist on safety.20 These goals may be put together into the main requirement of risk analysis providing a basis for decisionmaking. Similarly with the previous models, risk and reliability analysis brings together the identication of unwanted events, analysis of causes and analysis of consequences. The following methods are most often used in the analysis of risks and consequences: accident statistics, preliminary risk analysis, security analysis, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA), fault tree analysis, analysis of causes and consequences (event tree), preliminary risk analysis and hazard study. Risk analysis
19 20

Scarff F., Carty A. and Charette R.: Introduction to the Management of Risk, HMSO/CCTA, London, 1993, page 24 28. Aven T.: Reliability and Risk Analysis, The Royal Society, London, 1992, page 3.

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has its social dimension. Wynne believes21 that even those difcult scientic risk analyses, such as a safety analysis of pressure in a nuclear reactor, cannot avoid the risk analysis of the quality of the social environment. Risk analysis emphasizes the impact of the human (social) factor in all processes that may lead to a risk. As stated in the denition of risk, risk is an occurrence, usually a consequence of human activity, that is, of human error. Risk can not be viewed separately, but in connection with values that can be inuenced by risk, no matter whether universal values or prot gaining are at issue. It can be concluded that there are two main approaches in considering risk analysis: as a separate scientic method and as a part of the risk management process. In the rst case, risk analysis denotes methods22 by which risk theory is applied in exploring the nature of risk, in examining hazard as a source of risk and impact of risk, in studying risk communication and awareness. In the latter case, risk analysis stands for a procedure that is a part of the risk management process. Measuring risk and risk analysis in mine action planning Risk analysis develops statistical techniques for determining risk probability and foresight in an unsafe environment. It is, by its substance, a complex method that includes a number of research techniques and adapts itself to the nature of risk that is analyzed. For that reason, there is no clear distinction between risk analysis and other methods and procedures used in risk research and management. The situation is similar in mine action activities, i.e. basically with instruments for measuring and analysing risk from mines and ERW, including mine action planning as a precondition for successful reduction of these risks. The process of measuring mine and ERW risk depends on technical, economic, and socio-political factors. Efciency and value of any risk assessment depends on the estimation as to which of the risk criteria, related to those factors, will be studied.23 Adams points to the difculties of risk measuring, as researchers who collect data and make risk analysis may have prejudices. The prejudices emerge as a result of perceiving risks, he alleges, through cultural lters.24 A similar situation applies to mine and ERW risks, because their analysis is usually made in a complex socioeconomic environment of a post conict country. Paul Slovic states the following problem concerning the social dimension of risk, which can inuence the accuracy of empirical data and risk analysis: Hazardous events
21 22 23 24

Krimsky S. and others: Social Theories of Risk, Praeger Publishers, London, 1992, pages 284-287: part written by Waynne B.: Risk and Social Learning: Reication to Engagement. Hertz D. and Thomas H.: Practical Risk Analysis: An Approach Through Case Histories, Wiley, Chichester - New York, 1984, pages 2-3. Chicken J.C.: and Hayns M.: The Risk Ranking Technique in Decision Making, Pergamon Press, Oxford, 1989, page 19. Adams J.: Risk, University College London Press, London, 1995, page 69.

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interact with psychological, social, and cultural processes that may reduce or increase public perception of risk and thus hazardous behaviour as well.25 Perception of mine and ERW risk is associated with stakeholders involved in mine action operations. The way in which donors perceive the situation with mines in one country will determine their approach to mine action projects and programmes. Perception by the public and politicians is something upon which domestic support, acceptance of responsibility and priorities in mine action operations may depend. Mine risk perception by the population at risk may increase or reduce the magnitude of risk. Perception by mine action agents may have a negative impact on risk identication, characterization and quantication, that is, it may reduce the value of data. From the aspect of risk analysis and mine risk management, measurements in mine action planning include the following elds and variables: 1. Measurements related to risk agents and their causes with the variables: Structure of armed conicts, socio-economic consequences of conicts, mine suspected area and information about mines and mineelds. 2. Measurements related to mine and ERW hazards with the variables: Perception of mine and ERW risk, hazardous behaviour of individuals and groups at risk, economic circumstances as a source of risk. 3. Measurements related to the impact and consequences of mine and ERW risk with the variables: Socio-economic impact of mine and ERW on the affected country and threatened communities, mine and ERW victims. 4. Measurements related to mine action management with the variables: Mine action structure, legislation, quality management standards, strategic, operational and planning at the level of the affected community, and priority setting. Although the segment of planning goes deep into other processes that characterize mine action, the identication, selection and classication of the above variables does not end with this. It will depend on the problems and hypotheses of research in mine action, in which risk analysis as a method is applied. The above mentioned factors that may inuence the measurement of mine and ERW risk will make variable operationalization more complex. Caution must be exercised when selecting the indicators for some variables. During that process it is important to meet as many criteria for the selection of indicators as possible. Vujevi offers six criteria that should be taken into consideration: (1) validity that it is relevant to the measured variable; (2) objectivity that results depend on what is measured and not on those who are measuring; (3) reliability; (4) uniformity; (5) preciseness and (6)

25

Slovic P: The Perception of Risk, Earthscan Publications, London, 2000, page 234.

18

RISK THEORY AND MINE ACTION MANAGEMENT

representation.26 In addition, bearing in mind the nature of mine and ERW risks and the impact of other factors on them, it is necessary to have more indicators in order to explain and empirically examine some occurrences. An example of a detailed elaboration of variables, indicators and measuring instruments developed for Bosnia and Herzegovina can be found in the appendixes at the end of this book. 27

1.3.

Risk management

The term risk management The connection between risk and the management process is the decision on risk acceptability or risk treatment, if that risk is unacceptable. Risk treatment implies that an unacceptable risk is avoided, eliminated or reduced.28 That is a pre-condition for the realisation of the goals set, which directly or indirectly depend on the possibility of a hazardous situation. Decisions on risk acceptability are always management decisions. That process is dened as risk management.29 If everything is a matter of luck, risk management is a meaningless exercise...The essence of risk management lies in maximizing the areas where we have some control over the outcome while minimizing the areas where we have absolutely no control over the outcome and the linkage between effect and cause is hidden from us.30 The USA National Institute for the Prevention of Crime denes risk management as: anticipation, recognition and assessment of risk, along with measures to remove risk or reduce potential losses to an acceptable level.31 According to the Standards of Australia and New Zealand, risk management is the culture, processes and structures that are directed towards realizing potential opportunities whilst managing
26 27 28 29 30 31

Vujevi M: Uvoenje u znanstveni rad u podruju drutvenih znanosti (Introduction to a Research in Social Science), Informator, Zagreb, 1983, pages 70-75. Appendix 1: Mjerenje rizika od mina i EOR u Bosni i Hercegovini (Measuring Mine and ERW Risk in Bosnia and Herzegovina - variables, indicators, methods and procedures). Wood R. H.: Aviation Safety Programs a Management Handbook, Snohomish, Washington, 1997, page 55, source for picture 1: Logika upravljanja rizikom (The Logic of Risk Management). Same, page 53: Because decisions on risk acceptability are (or should be) managerial decision, we call this process risk management. Bernstein, P. L.: Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk, Wiley & Sons, New York, 1996, page 197. Excerpt from: Husar I.: Kako smanjiti premiju osiguranja (How to Reduce the Insurance Premium), article from the magazine Svijet osiguranja no. 2/1999, www.osiguranje.hr/casopis.asp?text_ id=273, access date 16 August 2005.

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DARVIN LISICA

adverse affects.32 A study of the British Royal Society denes risk management as a process that includes deciding on the acceptability of known or assessed risks and the implementation of activities to reduce the consequences or likelihood of occurrence33.
RISK MANAGEMENT LOGIC

WHAT ARE THE HAZARDS IN THIS OPERATION?

WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY OF AN ACCIDENT?

HOW SEVERE WILL THE ACCIDENT BE?

WHAT IS THE EXPOSURE TO THAT ACCIDENT

FEEDBACK LOOP

WHAT IS THE LEVEL OF RISK?

IS THAT RISK ACCEPTABLE?

YES
ACCEPT THE RISK!

NO
CAN ANY RISKS BE ELIMINATED?

YES
ELIMINATE THOSE RISKS

NO
CAN ANY RISKS BE REDUCED?

YES
REDUCE THOSE RISKS

NO
CANCEL THE OPERATION!

Source: Richard H. Wood: Aviation Safety Programs a Management Handbook

Graphic 1: Risk management logic

Risk management models There are various needs for risk management which depend of the nature of problem that may be produced by an event with unacceptable consequences. It may occur
32 33

The Australian and New Zealand Standard on Risk Management, AS/NZS 4360:2004, item 1.3.20. Risk: Analysis, Perception and Management. Report of Royal Society SG, London, 1992, page 5.

20

RISK THEORY AND MINE ACTION MANAGEMENT

because of the unreliability of a system or its parts and because of the presence of hazard, known or unknown, outside of the system. The system of risk management is a subsystem of a single management system of an organisation and it involves a set of those elements that deal with risks in a special way.34 The main functions of a risk management system are: Establishing criteria for the identication of risk, dening responsibility of decision-makers and other stakeholders for risk management and maintaining a risk management framework35. The process of risk management is an integral part of the overall management system and involves the application of management policy, procedures and practice for the activities of risk communication, establishing and identifying the context of risk, risk analysis, evaluation, treatment, control and review.36 The benets of risk management are manifold. The systems in which risks and their effects are clearly recognised will be able to respond to possible hazardous situations more promptly and efciently and forestall their consequences. The risk management structure will acquire the necessary knowledge and experience to anticipate future risks. The organisations that incorporated risk management in their systems act selfcondently and are reliable partners more determined to apply new scientic and other achievements. There are many different models describing the process of risk management. Differences between them are the result of different natures of risk and the varied management level that individual models are concerned with. The section below gives an overview of several distinctive risk management models, which served as a basis for designing the management process in mine action operations. Model of risk management according to the Australian and New Zealand standard on risk management AS/NZS 4360:2004. The Australian and New Zealand standards on risk management are considered to be among the best when considering environmental risks. The risk management process, according to AS/ NZS 4360:2004, includes a series of interconnected sub processes: Establishing the context of risk, risk identication, risk analysis, risk evaluation, risk treatment, monitor and review, communication and consultation.37 Establishing the context of risk is a procedure specifying what the risk relates to, and it includes (1) Establishing the external context, (2) establishing the internal context,
34

Shortreed J., Hicks J. and Craig L.: Basic Frameworks for Risk Management, Final Report, NERAM Network for Environmental Risk Assessment and Management, Ontario, 2003, page 7: Like the other management components it has elements that include decision-makers, policies, strategic planning, resources, and unique corporate culture. Same, page 7. These authors hold that the risk management structure of an organisation is a description of all activities within the system of risk management and relationship between this subsystem and other management subsystems. Also, risk management framework is used to denote processes, their order and time required for risk management. The Australian and New Zealand Standard on Risk Management, AS/NZS 4360:2004, item 1.3.21. Article by Dale F. Cooper: The Australian and New Zealand Standard on Risk Management, AS/ NZS 4360:2004, page 1, 2004, www.broadleaf.com.au/tutorials/ Tut_Standard.pdf, date of access: 16/08/2005, source for Graphic 2: Risk management process according to AS/NZS 4360:2004.

35

36 37

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DARVIN LISICA

(3) establishing the context of risk management, (4) developing risk evaluation criteria and (5) dening the implementation structure.38

COMMUNICATE AND CONSULT

ESTABILISH THE CONTEXT Objective Stakeholders Development of criteria Structure

IDENTIFY THE RISKS What can happen? How can it happen?

ANILYSE THE RISKS Review controls Likelihoods Consequences Level of risk

EVALUATE THE RISKS Comparasion against criteria Priorities (risk ranking)

TREAT THE RISKS Identify options Select the best responses Develop risk treatmens plans Implement

RISK ASSESSMENT

MONITOR AND REVIEW

Source: Dale F. Cooper: The Australian and New Zealand Standard on Risk Management, AS/NZS 4360:2004

Graphic 2: Risk management according to AS/NZS 4360:2004 The external context is used to denote the relationships between the organisation and its external environment (business, social, legislative, cultural, nancial and political environment, competition). The organisations characteristics are analysed vis-a-vis external environment, external stakeholders and potential business partners. The internal context is used to dene human capacities, systems, processes, market possibilities, organisational culture, internal stakeholders, and objectives of the organisation. A precondition for dening the internal and external context is a well-designed strategy with a clearly set mission, strategic and operational goals, operational plan and dimensioned structure. Setting the context of risk management comes as a result of the previous analyses of the external and internal environment. It entails dening the organisation, processes, projects, activities and objectives important for risk management. Development of risk evaluation criteria includes making decisions concerning risk acceptability and risk treatment, which are based on operational, technical, legal, social, humanitarian, environmental and other criteria. Comprehensive risk identication is a critical part of risk management. Unless a potential risk is identied, it will not be a matter of future analyses. Risk identication
38

The Australian and New Zealand Standard on Risk Management, AS/NZS 4360:2004, item 3.2.

22

RISK THEORY AND MINE ACTION MANAGEMENT

includes drafting a list of events whose effects may cause unwanted consequences. Risk identication also includes possible causes and scenarios that could provoke a hazardous situation. Experience and knowledge can be good allies in the process of risk identication.39 The objective of risk analysis is to separate the smallest acceptable risk from the biggest risks and to provide data to assist in the evaluation and treatment of risk. Risk analysis involves the evaluation of the current risk control, considering risk sources their consequences and greatest likelihood. The combination of consequences and likelihood results in the level of risk.40 Risk analysis, based on a qualitative risk classication, may serve as a basis for setting priorities in various mine action components.41 The visible result of risk identication and analysis is a risk register that contains information on the source of risk, its nature, current control, consequences and likelihood of occurrence, initial risk-rating list and vulnerability with respect to external and internal factors. Risk evaluation involves comparing the level of risk found during the process of risk analysis with previously established risk criteria.42 Risk evaluation takes into account the goals set and the level of risk that could be expected. Without risk, no progress can be made. In effect, any change in the course of pursuing a certain activity, either positive or negative, is seen as risk. The tolerability of risk is measured against the benet that could be produced in a hazardous event. If the low level of risk is involved, it can be accepted with minimum risk treatment or only by applying measures to control it. Otherwise, risk is reduced to an acceptable level. There are various quantitative methods for risk measurement and evaluation, but a quantitative assessment, however, is usually not sufcient because there are immeasurable or hidden factors that have an effect on the evaluation outcome. Experience and knowledge of the evaluator may be critical in determining which indicators of risk evaluation will be used. The result of evaluation is a prioritised list of risks with respect to the activities that an organisation conducts or plans to conduct. Risk treatment includes the following: Identifying a set of options to treat risks, estimating those options, preparing plans to treat risks and their implementation.43 (1) Identication of a set of options for risk treatment includes risk avoidance, reduction or control of the likelihood of occurrence, reduction or control of consequences, risk dispersal, transfer and retention. (2) Estimation of risk treatment options is
39 40 41

Same, item 3.3. Same, item 3.4.

Lisica D: Bosnia and Herzegovina Mine Problem and Priority Setting, Journal of Mine Action, Issue 7.2., page 14-16, The Mine Action Information Center at James Madison University, 2003, the article discusses in more detail priority setting in mine action activities. The Australian and New Zealand Standard on Risk Management, AS/NZS 4360:2004, item 3.5. The Australian and New Zealand Standard on Risk Management, AS/NZS 4360:1999, Graphic 4.2, page 17, source for Graphic 3: Risk management process. The publication of the Australian and New Zealand Standard of 2004 does not contain this Graphic.

42 43

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DARVIN LISICA

determined through the balance of three elements: degree of risk reduction, feasibility costs and future benets. These three elements are also used for calculating the price of risk management in an enterprise. (3) A plan for risk treatment involves specifying responsibility, schedule of activities, expected results of the treatment, funding, conducting measurements and reviewing the process. (4) The successful implementation of a risk treatment plan requires a successful management system. Communication and consultation are important elements in considering any step of the risk management process. It is important to develop the communication plan at the earliest stage of the process. It is, in effect, a two-way ow of information between decision-makers and other stakeholders.44 The expected goal of the implementation of a risk management plan is to reduce the remaining risk to a desired (acceptable) level or to repeat the risk treatment process, if the remaining risk does not come within the desired limits. It is considered that the Australian /New Zealand Standards are best adapted to environmental and human health risk management. Hence, they can be applied for managing mine and ERW risks, which result from hazards that are present in the human environment and which produce consequences for human health and quality of life. Model NERAM Benchmark Risk Management Framework contains three main elements: assessment of risk treatment, decision-making and risk reduction operations:45 (1) Assessment of risk treatment can be viewed through three interconnected processes: Risk estimation to estimate the magnitude of the risk (probability and consequences); evaluation to compare the previously estimated risk against the criteria such as costs, benets, etc., and risk treatment options to reduce the risk at an acceptable level. (2) Decision-making involves making long term decisions and specifying responsibility for decisions, associated with other elements of NERAM model. This segment may involve consultations with stakeholders, monitoring operations to reduce risk and priority setting among risk-issues. (3) Operations to reduce risk include programmes and activities performed by an organisation to reduce risks to an acceptable and cost-effective level. These activities may include standard setting, performing audits, training and other activities.

44 45

The Australian and New Zealand Standard on Risk Management, AS/NZS 4360:2004, item 3.1.

Shortreed J., Hicks J. and Craig L.: Basic Frameworks for Risk Management, Final Report, NERAM - Network for Environmental Risk Assessment and Management, Ontario, 2003, page 8, source for Graphic 4: NERAM Risk Management Framework.

24

RISK THEORY AND MINE ACTION MANAGEMENT

Evaluated and ranked risk

Risk treatment process

Risk acceptable

Yes Accept

No
Identify treatment options

Reduce likelihood

Reduce consequences

Transfer in ful or in part

Avoid

Consider feasibilty costs and benefits

COMMUNICATE AND CONSULT Assess treatment options

Recommend treatment strategies

Select treatment strategy

Prepare treatment plans

Prepare treatment plans

Implement treatment plans

Reduce likelihood

Reduce consequences

Prijenos u potpunosti ili djelimi no

Avoid

Part retained Risk acceptable Yes

Part transferred

Retain

No

Source: The Australian and New Zealand Standard on Risk Management, AS/NZS 4360:1999

Graphic 3: Risk treatment process

MONITOR AND REVIEW

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The value of the Network for Environmental Risk Assessment and Management NERAM model is that it introduces preliminary analysis into the risk assessment and treatment process.46 Preliminary analysis allows for setting priorities, based on risk identication and previous risk assessment, with respect to the present context, dened decisions and risk communication. It is a way to economize available resources and make the entire process of risk assessment and risk management cheaper. Accordingly this model is considered valuable in mine action operations. Risk management model according to ISO/IEC standards assumes the concept of security as the most important element in the entire process. Risk management is a process of identication, control, and minimization or elimination of safety risks to....acceptable costs.47 Safety is relative because it is not possible to reach absolute safety residual risk is always present.

NERAM framework for risk management

ENGAGE

DECISION MAKING
CONTEXT

STAKEHOLDERS CONCERNS

MONITOR RISK CONTROL OPTIONS ACTIONS

RISK ASSESSMENT AND TREATMENT OPTIONS

OPERATIONS TO REDUCE RISK

Source: John Shortreed, John Hicks i Lorraine Craig: Basic Framework for Risk Management, Final Report,2003. godina, page 8.

Graphic 4: NERAM Risk treatment framework

46 47

Same, page 9, source for Graphic 5: Extended NERAM Framework for Risk Assessment and Treatment. ISO/IEC 17799 Information technology Code of Practice for Information Security Management, First edition, 2000, page 1.

26

RISK THEORY AND MINE ACTION MANAGEMENT

Extended NERAM framework for risk assessment and treatment

CONTEXT
PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS RISK ESTIMATION EVALUATION

DECISIONS

OPTIONS
RISK COMMUNICATION

STAKEHOLDERS

PRIORITY RISKS

RISK ESTIMATION

EVALUATION

TREATMENT OPTIONS

Graphic 5: Extended NERAM framework for risk assessment and treatment

START

DEFINITION OF INTENDEND USE AND REASONABLE FORESEEABLE MISUSE

RISK ANALYSIS

RISK ASSESSMENT

HAZARD IDENTIFICATION

RISK ESTIMATION RISK REDUCTION RISK EVALUATION

NO

IS TOLERABLE RISK ACHIEVED?

YES

RISK ASSESSMENT AND REDUCTION ACCORDING ISO 51:1999

STOP

Graphic 6: Risk assessment and reduction according to ISO/IEC standards 27

DARVIN LISICA

The main measure to achieve safety is reduction of risk to a tolerable level tolerable risk. Tolerable risk is determined by the search for an optimal balance between ideal or absolute safety and the demands to be met by a product, process or service, and factors such as benet to the user, suitability for purpose, cost effectiveness, and conventions of the society concerned.48 In the process of risk assessment and risk reduction tolerable risk is achieved.49 The model of risk management in ISO/IEC standards is mostly concerned with improving safety levels in the manufacturing and sale of products and services. Risk analysis entails identifying the criteria for risk acceptability, risk identication and risk estimation, and in combination with evaluation it makes risk assessment. A clear terminology and simple risk management model make it suitable for mine action activities.

1.4.

Risk communication

Communication and risk. Risk is an event that necessarily sends out specic information. This information is connected with the existence, nature, type, severity, acceptability and other risk features.50 Risk information is conveyed, exchanged and changed among participants. The problem of risk communication was intensively researched in the eighties of the 20th century. Many researchers who were involved in the early investigations of risk perception expanded their areas of interest towards studying risk communication. The issues that the risk perception and risk communication researches deal with are related and intertwined.51 Risk communication in its substance is a part of risk analysis, but it is also an element of risk management without which risk treatment would not be efcient. According to the denition provided by the US National Research Council, risk communication is an interactive process of exchange of information and opinions among individuals, groups and institutions concerning a risk or potential risk to human health or the environment.52 Cohrssen and Covello dene risk communication
48 49 50 51 52

ISO/IEC Guide 51 Safety aspects Guidelines for their inclusion in standards, Second edition, 1999, item 5.2. Same, page 4, Graphic 1, source for Graphic 6: Process of risk assessment and reduction according to ISO/IEC standards. ISO/IEC Risk Management Terminology Guidelines for Use in Standards, WD, 1999, page 6. Risk: Analysis, Perception and Management, Report of Royal Society SG, London, 1992, pages 118119. National Research Council: Improving Risk Communication, 1989, taken over from: Lundgren R.: Risk Communication: A Handbook for Communicating Environmental, Safety, and Health Risks, Battelle Press, Columbus, 1994, page 12, a process by which scientic organizations both dissemi-

28

RISK THEORY AND MINE ACTION MANAGEMENT

as the process of conveying or transmitting information among interested parties about: levels of health or environmental risks; the signicance of meaning of health or environmental risks and decisions, actions, or policies aimed at managing or controlling health or environmental risks.53 There are different approaches to dening when risk communication starts with risk emergence, risk assessment, risk analysis or with dening the public to which risk communication would be addressed. From the point of view of a community and groups affected by mines, this communication starts in an armed conict during which mines are laid in the ground. Viewed as part of an organised risk management process within mine action planning, risk communication starts with risk assessment, and within risk assessment, it starts with dening which threatened groups it would be addressed to. In the mine action implementation phase, communication forms a part of the risk management process, which has a direct impact upon successful risk reduction. Communication and the community affected by the risk from mines. Providing a conceptual denition of a mine-affected community is not always simple. The risk from mines and ERW existing in a certain geographic area has arisen as a result of human action, and its consequences have an impact upon the people exposed to it. In respect to these and other features, a community affected by the risk from mines and ERW may be dened as a group of people who live in the same area, are exposed to the same risk and whose members have common needs and interests, which includes efcient protection from mines and ERW. Community may be dened with regard to various criteria: geographic, administrative, interest grouping, etc.54 Difculties may occur when dening geographic borders of a community. Members of a community may have different views about the size of the community and their membership within it. Mineelds are not linked with administrative borders, but with past combat operations. The size of a community is restricted by its capability of having efcient risk communication. Communication is a process that comprises dialogue between members of a community, exchange of information, mutual understanding and negotiation, and collective action.55 In the event that one of these elements is missing, the process will not be carried out. If these criteria are applied to the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina, the affected community can be a local community, a town or a group of several smaller villages.
nate technical information and gather information about the opinions and concerns of non-scientic groups. 53 Cohrssen J. and Covello V.: Risk Analysis: A Guide to Principles and Methods for Analyzing Health and Environmental Risks, United States Council on Environmental Quality, Executive Ofce of the President of US, Washington, 1989, page 99,
54

Figueroa M.E. and others: Communication for Social Change. An Integrated Model for Measuring the Process and Its Outcomes, Johns Hopkins Universitys Center for Communication Programs, New York, page 15. Same, page 3.

55

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DARVIN LISICA

From the communication viewpoint, successful risk management in the process of planning and implementing mine action operations in mine affected communities depends on three requirements:56 (1) Understanding of information by affected groups (a knowledge challenge). Resistance of groups to potential risks depends on their capability to understand and use the information that accompanies risk assessment; (2) Involvement of affected groups in risk management (a process challenge). By taking part in risk assessment and the assessment of their own needs and capacities, the groups affected assume responsibility for residual risk management, after mine action operations in their community are completed; (3) Existence of a developed and continuous communication between the executors of mine action operations and affected groups (a communications skills challenge). Successful communication enables exchange of information, corrections to the plans developed and timely identication of priorities. The most common error committed by the agents of planning and implementation of mine action operations is the failure to consider affected communities and their affected groups as equal partners who can understand the problem and the ways to solve it. That is the major obstacle to mine risk communication.57 Opposed to that is the second error, in which an affected community spontaneously initiates internal dialogue and social changes that contribute to the protection from mines. The position, according to which the initiative for social changes may come from external or internal stimuli, usually called catalysts, stands between these two extremes.58 Communication in a mine-affected community has its catalysts. The most common internal catalysts, initiators of dialogue and activities, are its members with personal authority and leadership qualities. The most common external initiators, focused on changing the social (risk) behaviour in the community, are non-governmental organisations, state and other institutions. Communication can also be stimulated through technical advance, legal regulations and mass media.

1.5.

Risk perception

Hazard assessment, for a modern risk analyst, is for an ordinary person risk perception as a kind of intuitive reasoning about risk. Why is risk perception studied? Paul Slovic, one of the most renowned experts in risk perception, gives the following answer to
56

Lundgren R.: Risk Communication: A Handbook for Communicating Environmental, Safety, and Health Risks, Battelle Press, Columbus, 1994, page 15. These requirements or challenges, as he calls them, were dened by K.E. Rowan in 1991. For purpose of planning and implementation of mine action operations they have been adjusted to working with affected groups. Same, page 32. Figueroa M.E. and others: Communication for Social Change. An Integrated Model for Measuring the Process and Its Outcomes, Johns Hopkins Universitys Center for Communication Programs, New York, page 6.

57 58

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RISK THEORY AND MINE ACTION MANAGEMENT

this question: The ability to sense and avoid harmful environmental conditions is necessary for the survival of all living organisms. A capacity that allows them to alter their environment as well as to respond to it both creates and reduces risk.59 The society of today is exposed to various, more or less harmful, kinds of risk. Relation to risks has its psychological, social and cultural dimensions. It is the way that risk is perceived. Behaviour, as a potential source of a harmful event, depends on risk perception. Perception has a multiple reversible inuence upon risk: (1) it can pose an obstacle to desired changes of risk behaviour, (2) it inuences dening of limits of risk acceptability and (3) it inuences the image that affected groups and communities have about dealing with risk. Risk perception researches are focused on those risk features that exert inuence upon the behaviour of individuals and groups exposed to risk.60 Risk communication comprises the results dealt with by the risk perception researches. Regina Lundgren denes risk perception as a sum of beliefs (convictions) a person has about risk, including those about the denition, likelihood and outcome of a risk event.61 From the perspective of social sciences, risk perception includes human beliefs, attitudes, judgement and feelings as the universal social or cultural values and rules of behaviour that people adopt with respect to hazards and potential benets that may derive from risk exposure.62

59 60

Slovic P:The Perception of Risk, Earthscan, London, 2000:

Cohrssen J. and Covello V.: Risk Analysis: A Guide to Principles and Methods for Analyzing Health and Environmental Risks, United States Council on Environmental Quality, Executive Ofce of the President of US, Washington, 1989, page 9. Lundgren R.: Risk Communication: A Handbook for Communicating Environmental, Safety, and Health Risks, Battelle Press, Columbus, 1994, page 174. Risk: Analysis, Perception, Management, Report of Royal Society SG, London, 1992, page 83.

61 62

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DARVIN LISICA

2.

CAUSES OF RISKS FROM MINES AND ERW

2.1.

Armed conicts and their effects upon distribution of mines and ERW

The notion of conict The main feature of conict is the existence of two states of opposition, between which such relations are established, which inevitably result in consequences directed towards solving the causes of the conict. It derives from Latin conictare, which translates as to strike against something, to ght,63 as well as strife, dispute, argument, but also armed strife, battle, war.64 From a psychological viewpoint, conict is a subjective experience that has arisen from two or more needs (motives)65 In addition to its etymological and psychological meaning, the notion of conict has its philosophical, scientic and also religious meaning.66 St. Thomas Aquinas distinguished between several types of conict: squabble, dispute, uprising, split and war.67 Squabble is a conict of words. Dispute is a conict in practice, a private war between individuals or small groups, fought because of unsettled will. Uprising is a conict between two disagreeing parts of one people and is directed against the secular unity of state and people, and split is a conict that resists the spiritual unity of the society. A war is fought against an external enemy, which, in Saint Thomas view, was a conict between two peoples. Cybernetics explains conict as a state of a system in which subsystems have opposing, i.e. conicting goals and criteria. The most frequent state of conict is when one subsystem endeavours to minimise the value of goals and criteria, and the other one seeks to maximise them.68 Religious meaning of conict builds from the dualist concept, according to which there is opposition between spirit and body, good and evil, deity of good and forces
63 64 65 66 67 68

Klai B.: Rjenik stranih rijei (Dictionary of Foreign Words), Nakladni zavod Matice Hrvatske, Zagreb, 1990, page 723. Beridan I., Tomi I.M., and Kreso M.: Leksikon sigurnosti (Lexicon of Safety), DES, Sarajevo, 2001, page 172. Vojni leksikon (Military Lexicon), VIZ, Belgrade, 1981, page 227. Izet Beridan: Konikti (Conicts), Sarajevo, 2003, page 17.

Thomas Aquinas: The State, Globus, Nakladni zavod, Zagreb, 1990, Summa theologica, questions 41 and 42, pages 227-234. Vojni leksikon (Military Lexicon), VIZ, Belgrade, 1981, page 227.

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RISK THEORY AND MINE ACTION MANAGEMENT

of evil. The dualist concept is, more or less, a feature of all most important religions in the world. By means of these ever-conicting primeval oppositions, an answer is given to the most important human and existential questions about the origin of evil, suffering and its causes.69 If we put aside the conicts that take place in nature, in which a state of conict is independent of human will and needs, we will then be discussing social conicts. The problem of mines and ERW has arisen as a consequence of such a social conict in which armed force is used. In modern practice, armed conicts are divided into low intensity and high intensity armed conicts.70 Although the problem of mines and ERW may arise as a consequence of some low intensity conicts (special operations, armed incidents, deployment of troops in other countries), in practice it is a marginal phenomenon, without particular inuence. The problem of leftover mines and ERW in the world is a consequence of high intensity armed conicts, notably war, a long one in particular, as the most severe type of demonstrating armed force. Armed conicts and mine and explosive ordnance remnants Each armed conict has its structure, which is composed of the same elements that mark social conicts. Those are: participators in a conict, goals of the participators in a conict, means and modes of conict, the area of conict, level of conict, duration of conict, outcome of conict and consequences of conict.71 These elements present a starting point for the analysis of conict inuences upon the problem of leftover mines and other explosive ordnance. The basic features of war are complexity, massive scale and intensity.72 The level of their emergence determines the social and economic consequences of war, such as human and material losses, demographic consequences, national economy, movement of goods, capital, people and information, and even social and political organisation. The features of war and social and economic consequences are connected with the extent and inuence of mine contamination upon a country going through a postconict period. The correlation between the features of war, social and economic consequences of war and mine contamination can be analysed based on two aspects. The rst aspect relates to the use of mines and explosive ordnance in future wars and to anticipating the consequences of mine contamination for population and country as a whole. According to the second aspect, familiarity with the features of war and all its consequences is a prerequisite for dealing with the problem of mines and ERW successfully, which is the task of mine action operations.
69 70 71 72

Brandt M.: Izvori zla: Dualistike teme (Sources of Evil: Dualist Themes), ITRO August Cesarec, Zagreb, 1989, page 9.

Beridan I.: Konikti: homo pro homine et contra hominem-ovjek za i protiv ovjeka, Fakultet politikih nauka, Sarajevo, 2003, page 17. Same, page 20. Same, page 111.

33

DARVIN LISICA

It must not be forgotten that the use of mines in armed conicts has a pronounced ethical dimension: it is unlawful to lay ambushes even in a just war.73 This mediaeval thought about the use of unlawful resources in a war is still topical. The main features of using mines and explosive obstacles are precisely deception, perdy in laying them, causing excessive injuries and undesired suffering. The fact of the matter is basically a lack of chivalry as one of the principles of the international law of war. Inuence of conict character upon the use of mines Underground mine battles were known as early as Ancient Times as a type of combat activities during the sieges of forts and fortied places. This type of combat activities, known as land mine warfare,74 was renewed and perfected in the Middle Ages, at the time when attackers and defenders used to carry out complex manoeuvres of digging underground galleries and countergalleries.75 The term underground mine battle on land was often used instead of the term land mine warfare. Water mine warfare is a special branch of marine warfare, which comprises mine activities and mine defence on the sea, rivers and lakes.76 Underwater mines were rst used in the American war of independence against British war ships that imposed naval blockade of the American harbours, coast and seaways. Since that time, the design of underwater mines and the role of mine warfare in offensive and defensive maritime activities have grown continuously. Mine war was composed of underground mine battle and water mine warfare. It was the Genovians who rst used gunpowder in conducting land mine warfare, in their attack against Sarazanela in 1487, however, it was unsuccessful. Soon after that, in 1503, Pedro de Navarro, a Spanish mining ofcer, carried out the rst successful underground mining operations during the occupation of a fort in Naples. These tactics of conducting land mine warfare prevailed for almost three full centuries. With the coming of dynamite in 1867 and other brisant explosives, this kind of land mine warfare gradually lost importance. Signicant underground mine battles were fought only during World War I. This last great war of position, in which frontal battles with extensive fortications and less mobile forces prevailed, still left room for underground mine battles.
73 74

Thomas Aquinas: The State, Globus, Nakladni zavod, Zagreb, 1990, Summa theologica, question 40, page 224. Land mine warfare comprises underground mine works, which, in a fortication war and the war of position, are used to destroy or defend forts and other fortication facilities. Vojna enciklopedija 5, Drugo izdanje (Military Encyclopaedia 5, Second Edition), Redakcija VE, Belgrade, pages 508 and 514.

75 76

unec O.: Planet mina, Strata istraivanja (The Mine Planet, Strata Investigations), Zagreb, 1997, page 4. Vojna enciklopedija 5, Drugo izdanje (Military Encyclopaedia 5, Second Edition), Redakcija VE, Belgrade, 1973, page 508.

34

CAUSES OF RISK FROM MINES AND ERW

The design of armoured and mechanised units and air forces increased mobility and the impact of force to a signicant extent. The war of manoeuvre prevailed over the war of position in the doctrines of the majority of countries, and the radical German doctrine of lightning war rejected the position concept entirely. In World War II, which was distinctly a war of manoeuvre, underground mine battles did not play a great role in combat operations. They were mainly applied on the East Front, though without having special tactical and operational signicance. After World War II underground mine battles were entirely abandoned. Modern interpretation of the term mine warfare is different. Zunec is of the opinion that mine warfare includes various aspects of mine use, from underground mine battles to laying modern landmines on land and sea.77 In the Military Encyclopaedia of the JNA (Yugoslav Peoples Army), the notion of modern mine warfare is connected only with the use of mines and explosive ordnance in the water. At the end of World War II, anti-tank mines laid in a mineeld were used for the rst time, which was the result of appearance and rapid development of tanks during World War I.78 Serial production of mines started in the period between the two world wars. The production was focused on anti-tank mines in response to the development of armoured and mechanised vehicles at that time. It was Germany that launched the rst serial mine production back in 1935. German anti-tank mine TMi-35 and antipersonnel mine SMi-35 possess all essential features of modern landmines. World War II gave rise to massive use of landmines. The American military intelligence service assessed that over 300 million anti-tank mines had been laid during World War II. Out of that number, the Soviets laid around 220 million, the Germans 80 million and the US Army 17 million.79 By the end of World War II, the Germans alone produced 16 different types of anti-tank and 10 different types of anti-personnel mines. It was as early as then that they experimented with different kinds of magnetic, vibration, radio controlled and frequency induced fuses.80 In World War II anti-tank mines weighed between 2.8 and 9.1 kg, i.e. 6 kg on the average. German anti-tank mines, with an average weight of almost 9 kg, were heaviest. Japanese mines, with an average weight of only 1.9 kg, were lightest. The weight of explosive charge in World War II anti-tank mines ranged from around 1.7 to 4.7 kg, which is 3.2 kg on the average. With an average of 5 kg, German mines also had the heaviest explosive weight, closely followed by the Soviet mines with about
77 78

unec O.: Planet mina, Strata istraivanja (The Mine Planet, Strata Investigations), Zagreb, 1997, page 3, footnote 3. Vojna enciklopedija 9, Drugo izdanje (Military Encyclopaedia 9, Second Edition), Redakcija VE, Belgrade, 1973, pages 726-727: Tanks were rst used in the battle of the Somme on September 15, 1916. The rst use of tanks by the British was successful, although only 18 tanks took part in the battle due to a number of structural defects and frequent malfunctions. By the end of the war, both German and French army started designing tanks. Data from the Arms Project (1993), taken over from unec O.: Planet mina, Strata istraivanja (The Mine Planet. Strata Investigations), Zagreb, 1997, page 8. A Guide to Mine Action, Geneva International Centre for Humanitarian Demining, Geneva, 2003, page 11.

79 80

35

DARVIN LISICA

4.3 kg. The average relative ratio of explosive charge in total mine weight amounts to about 54%. The Soviet and Japanese anti-tank mines had the largest relative ratio of explosive to total mine weight, somewhat over 70% of explosive in mine weight. They were followed by the British mines about 62%, and German mines, with about 56% of explosive in total mine weight. The design of mines after World War II concentrated on ve criteria: effectiveness, size, detectability, logistic effort and speed of laying.81 One of the essential features of mines is their combat capacity which depends on the mine type, as well as the kind and weight of explosive charge. More than 600 types of different landmines were produced in the period between 1945 and 1990. The typical modern anti-tank mine gathers both total and explosive weight. Its weight ranges from 6.5 to 9.5 kg and it weighs about 2 kg more than a World War II mine. On the average, the French antitank mines are heaviest and weigh about 10 kg. The weight of explosive charge has increased and varies from 4.6 to 6.9 kg, which is 5.8 kg on the average. The relative share of explosive in the total weight of an anti-tank mine has also increased to about 72%. Mines produced in Yugoslavia have a greater share of explosive in their weight, 84% of explosive in the mine weight; however, there are no great deviations from the average when it comes to other countries-producers. Increase in destructive power of anti-tank mines after World War II was caused by the improvement of the features of armoured and mechanised vehicles, principally their armour resistance and manoeuvre qualities. The destructive power of mines increased due to heavier explosive charge, which very often has cumulative features. Such an anti-tank mine contains averagely 2.5 kg more explosive than a mine from World War II, which increases its effectiveness against armour. The concept of light anti-tank mines was abandoned, however, a more signicant increase in the total weight and dimensions of mines did not occur, by which negative impacts upon logistic effort and speed of laying were avoided. Antipersonnel blast, fragmentation and bouncing fragmentation mines were used in World War II and their basic features have not substantially changed since then. A typical antipersonnel bouncing fragmentation mine weighs from about 3.5 to 5.5 kg and contains about 0.5 kg of explosive charge. An antipersonnel fragmentation mine has the weight of about 1.5 to 4.5 kg and the explosive charge of about 0.1 to 0.5 kg. A blast mine weighs about 0.5 kg and contains about 0.2 kg of explosive charge. The development of bouncing fragmentation mines after World War II was aimed at reducing the total mine weight. The average mine weight ranged from 1.6 to 3.7 kg, and the weight of the explosive charge from 0.2 to 0.5 kg. Mine features were improved in technological terms. Apart from the explosive and weight ratio, the established criteria required improvement of other mine features such as explosive quality, improving anti-magnetic features and tightness, prolonging the life of mines laid (explosive stability, protective features of the case, etc.) and improving different ways for activating and laying mines.
81

A Guide to Mine Action, Geneva International Centre for Humanitarian Demining, Geneva, 2003, page 11.

36

CAUSES OF RISK FROM MINES AND ERW

It can be concluded that the use of mines was connected with the use of explosive materials for warfare purposes. The way of ghting underground mine battles changed insofar as the black powder, and later also brisant explosive, changed the mode of warfare. The industrial revolution and scientic discoveries in the 18th and 19th centuries changed the character of warfare. Armed forces grew more mobile and the earlier principles of war became outdated. The war of position still dominated during World War I, but the use of rst tanks announced the development of the rst armoured and mechanised units, which would be the impact force of the wars to follow. Under such circumstances, underground mine battles lost their meaning. Instead of explosive charges in underground galleries, landmines are now lethal ordnance that is shallowly laid in the mineelds and most commonly used to bar the space in front of forward defences or the approach routes of enemy forces.

2.2.

Modern landmines and explosive remnants of war

Modern landmines The notion and classication of landmines. The word mine has its roots in the French82language and has a multiple meaning. Mines rst meant underground galleries and corridors in mining, and different excavations in underground mine battles. After introducing black powder in the 13th century, the tactics of land mine warfare gradually changed. The term mine was extended to include galleries and mine chambers with powder charge.83 Although mines imply underwater and landmines,84 this book is restricted to the problem of landmines in modern warfare.85 The forerunner of modern landmines was the mechanical eld mine, also called ground torpedo, which appeared around 1880. This lethal ordnance possessed the basic features of modern mines: explosive charge, square wooden case, spring wire safety pin and detonator as a fuse. It was buried shallowly under the ground surface and activated by pulling (by the observer), pressure or contact. Mines may be classied based on different criteria. The basic classication of mines in military reference books is by purpose, time, place and impact mode. In the 1973
82 83 84

French: mine, Klai B.: Rjenik stranih rijei (Dictionary of Foreign Words), Nakladni zavod Matice Hrvatske, Zagreb, 1990, page 885. Vojna enciklopedija 5, Drugo izdanje (Military Encyclopaedia 5, Second Edition), Redakcija VE, 1973, page 470.

Mortar missiles are also called mines. This book will tackle them only in the part related to unexploded ordnance, and it will endeavour neither to describe their features and the features of the cannons they are red from, nor the mode of their use. From the theoretical viewpoint, it is important to examine how the character of modern wars has inuenced the development and use of landmines. This will be discussed in more detail in the chapter on conicts.

85

37

DARVIN LISICA

Military Encyclopaedia of the JNA86, the basic classication of mines was made by purpose, impact time, the mode of putting them into effect, the shape, and the external inuence that activates a mine. 1996 edition of Janes Mines and Mine Clearance offers a classication of mines by purpose, as the basic categorization of mines. It also introduces a new group of off-route mines in its classication, which are specic by their impact from the ank when activated by pulling or by some of the noncontact sensor fuses. A Chinese textbook, written for the international course of postwar mine clearance,87 adds two new mine classications: by mode of production and emplacement. It also states some new types of mines, such as anti-helicopter mines and mines that, after being activated, are directed against the upper part of a tank (top-cutting mine). A wider classication by the mode of fuse activation was also made.88 Military reference books dealt with the conceptual denition of mines until 1981. They offered denitions that comprised the combat use of mines, but not their impact upon human lives and the environment. A mine is, thereby, an explosive charge with activation devices, intended for demolishing buildings, incapacitating or destroying living force and technical equipment.89 The term mine was rst legally regulated by the 1981 United Nations Convention on Prohibitions or Restrictions on the Use of Certain Conventional Weapons Which May Be Deemed to Be Excessively Injurious or to Have Indiscriminate Effects, including its protocols: Protocol on Prohibitions or Restrictions on the Use of Mines, BoobyTraps and Other Devices (Protocol II). The amended Protocol II of this Convention from 1996 amends the earlier denitions of mines, and they read as follows: 1. Mine means a munitions placed under, on or near the ground or other surface area and designed to be exploded by the presence, proximity or contact of a person or vehicle. 2. Remotely-delivered mine means a mine not directly emplaced but delivered by artillery, missile, rocket, mortar, or similar means, or dropped from an aircraft. Mines delivered from a land-based system from less than 500 metres are not considered to be remotely delivered, provided that they are used in accordance with Article 5 and other relevant Articles of this Protocol.

86 87 88

Vojna enciklopedija V, Drugo izdanje (Military Encyclopaedia V, Second Edition), Redakcija VE, 1973, page 476. Postwar Mine Clearance, Book 1 and Book 2, The Engineering Institute of Engineer Corps University of Science and Engineering PLA, Nanjing, 1999, page 10.

See Graphic 7: Classication of landmines, source: Vojna enciklopedija 5 (Military Encyclopaedia 5), 1973, amended according to the classication given in Janes Mines and Mine Clearance, 1996, and Postwar Mine Clearance, 1999. Vojni leksikon (Military Lexicon), VIZ, Belgrade, 1981, page 289.

89

38

CAUSES OF RISK FROM MINES AND ERW

CLASSIFICATION OF LANDMINES
BY USE BY CONTROL REGIME BY WAYS OF LAYING BY MECHANISM OF FUSE ACTIVATION

ANTI-PERSONNEL

ANTI-TRANSPORT

AUTOMATIC (non-controlled)

MANUALLY-LAID

NON-CONTACT

CONTACT (trap mines)

BLAST

SPECIAL

GUIDED (controlled)

SCATTERABLE

VIBRATION

PRESSURESENSITIVE

FRAGMENTATION

BOOBY-TRAPS
BOUNDING FRAGMENTATION

FOR SELECTED TARGETS (smart mines)

ARTILLERYDELIVERED AIRCRAFTDELIVERED

ELECTROMAGNETIC ACTIVATION

PULL-SENSITIVE

MAGNETIC ACTIVATION RADIO ACTIVATION

RELEASESENSITIVE

FLARE DIRECTIONAL FRAGMENTATION SIGNAL SELFDESTRUCTING

PRESS-RELEASE

ELECTRICAL ANTI-TANK FOUGASSE SELFNEUTRALIZING

BY SHAPE

DELAY-EFFECT ELECTROINDUCTION

BLAST (track-cutting) SHAPED CHARGE (belly cutting)

FAKE

SCHOOLMANEUVER

BY WAYS OF PRODUCTION

CONCENTRATED

CHEMICAL ELECTROCHEMICAL

NUCLEAR OFF -ROUTE (side-cutting)

ORGANIC

EXTENSIBLE

TOP-STRIKING (top-cutting mines)

ANTI-HELICOPTER

IMPROVIZED

COMBINED

Source: Military Encyclopedia 5, 1973. updated according to a classification given in Janes Mines and Mine Clearance 1996-1997. and Postwar Mine Clearance, 1999.

Graphic 7: Classication of landmines

39

DARVIN LISICA

3. Anti-personnel mine means a mine primarily designed to be exploded by the presence, proximity or contact of a person which will incapacitate, injure or kill one or more persons. 4. Booby-trap means any device or material which is designed, constructed or adapted to kill or injure, and which functions unexpectedly when a person disturbs or approaches an apparently harmless object or performs an apparently safe act.90 Convention on the Prohibition of the Use, Stockpiling, Production and Transfer of Anti-Personnel Mines and on their Destruction from 1997 (The Ottawa Convention) denes the terms mine and anti-personnel mine in the same way as the Amended Protocol II.91 International mine action standards have also accepted the denition of a mine and anti-personnel mine from the Ottawa Convention.92 The term anti-tank mine has not been legally regulated by international conventions. Janes Study on Mines and Mine Clearance for 1996-1997 gives a simple denition of landmines as explosive devices manufactured and designed to be initiated by its victim personally, or by command.93 A Guide to Mine Action of the Geneva International Centre for Humanitarian Demining also states a simple denition: Landmines are explosive traps that are victim-activated, whether the intended target is a person or a vehicle.94 This denition emphasizes even more clearly the social dimension and identies the word victim as keyword in the conceptual denition of mines. That social dimension is additionally afrmed by the word trap. The notion of mine changed through the history of warfare and acquired different meanings.
90

United Nations Convention on Prohibitions or Restrictions on the Use of Certain Conventional Weapons Which May Be Deemed to Be Excessively Injurious or to Have Indiscriminate Effects from 1981, Amended Protocol on Prohibitions or Restrictions on the Use of Mines, Booby-Traps and Other Devices (Amended Protocol II), Article 2 of the Denition. Source: unec O.: Planet mina, Strata istraivanja (The Mine Planet. Strata Investigations), Zagreb, 1997, page 281. Convention on the Prohibition of the Use, Stockpiling, Production and Transfer of Anti-Personnel Mines and on their Destruction, 1997, source: www.mines.gc.ca/ VII/VII_AA_i-en.asp, access date: November 25, 2005, Article 2: (1) Anti-personnel mine means a mine designed to be exploded by the presence, proximity or contact of a person and that will incapacitate, injure or kill one or more persons. Mines designed to be detonated by the presence, proximity or contact of a vehicle as opposed to a person, which are equipped with anti-handling devices, are not considered anti-personnel mines as a result of being so equipped. (2) Mine means a munitions designed to be placed under, on or near the ground or other surface area and to be exploded by the presence, proximity or contact of a person or a vehicle. International Mine Action Standards, Geneva International Centre for Humanitarian Demining (GICHD) for United Nations Mine Action Service, Geneva, 2003, IMAS 04.10, 2nd Edition, Glossary of Mine Action Terms and Abbreviations, 2003, pages 3 and 16. Janes Mines and Mine Clearance, First Edition, 1996, page 12: Landmine. An explosive device manufactured to a design, initiated by the signature from its victim, or by command. A Guide to Mine Action, Geneva International Centre for Humanitarian Demining, Geneva, 2003, page 7.

91

92

93 94

40

CAUSES OF RISK FROM MINES AND ERW

The conceptual denition of modern landmines has changed since World War II. Initially, it was dominantly of technical and military nature, i.e. mines were dened by their purpose. Over the last twenty years, as the cold war grew weaker, more room was made for internationally-based legal regulation of the production, use and sale of mines. Initiatives coming from the non-governmental sector bestow additional strength to this process, so that today, the movement to ban mines has reached global proportions. The conceptual denition of mines, as it exists in the international documents today, has developed in that direction. The present day denition of mines lost its military features. Its conceptual denition is dominated by the social character related to the problem that has arisen as a consequence of mine use. That problem has been described by a harmful after effect of a potential risk event caused by mine hazard. The greatest damage from mine use is inicted upon human lives and health. Numerous other social and economic consequences for mine victims, their families and a wider social community arise there from. The ght against mines and their harmful after effects is the unique area of operations known as mine action. Explosive remnants of war (ERW) Abandoned explosive ordnance (AXO) and unexploded ordnance (UXO) form explosive remnants of war. Explosive remnants contaminate the areas of combat activities, (UXO) or form a part of uncontrolled stockpiles (AXO), which pose potential threat to population and are polluters of the human environment. Over 90 countries around the world are contaminated by explosive remnants of war. In some of them, explosive remnants of war present a greater problem than emplaced mines; such is the case with Iraq, where abandoned explosive ordnance poses a greater source of danger than mines and UXO.95 Unexploded ordnance (UXO). Unexploded ordnance is explosive ordnance that has been primed, fused, armed or otherwise prepared for use or used. It may have been red, dropped, launched or projected yet remains unexploded either through malfunction or design or for any other reason.96 The denition from the Protocol on Explosive Remnants of War is almost identical to this UXO denition. Abandoned explosive ordnance (AXO). The Protocol on Explosive Remnants of War introduced a new term into mine action practice, and that is abandoned explosive ordnance.97 This ordnance implies such explosive ordnance that was not exploited
95 96 97

Explosive Remnants of War and Mines Other than Anti-Personnel Mines. Global survey 2003-2004, Landmine Action (UK), 2005, page 86. International Mine Action Standards, IMAS 04.10, 2nd Edition, Glossary of Mine Action Terms and Abbreviations, 2003, page 26. Additional Protocol 5 from 2003, Convention on Prohibitions or Restrictions on the Use of Certain Conventional Weapons Which May Be Deemed to Be Excessively Injurious or to Have Indiscriminate Effects, Article 2. Source: http://disarmament.un.org:8080/Treaty Status.nsf , access date: May 10, 2005.

41

DARVIN LISICA

during the war, is not under control by the parties in conict and is stockpiled or prepared for use.

2.3.

The Character of war in Bosnia and Herzegovina and the distribution of mines and ERW

Armed conicts that took place in south-eastern Europe between 1991 and 1996 were directly caused by different interests in the process of break-up of SFR Yugoslavia. According to the report of the International Commission on the Balkans, the breakup of Yugoslavia was a result of interaction between the decline of communism as a political system and the decay of the federal state, and the war that followed was primarily caused by the ambitions of the then Belgrade regime to create Greater Serbia. The consequence of that was the most destructive armed conict in Europe since 1945.98 There are signicant differences in the characteristics of these armed conicts, which are important for determining the character of the war from the viewpoint of its impact upon distribution of mines and ERW. By its duration and intensity, the war in Slovenia cannot be compared with the war of Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. The war in Bosnia and Herzegovina differs from the other two in several elements. The war in Slovenia caught the JNA in peacetime mode, which is an important difference. In the initial phase of the war in Croatia, until the Sarajevo cease-re of 2 January 1992, the JNA transformed from peacetime into a wartime army. Another important difference is the possibility of arming. Unlike Bosnia and Herzegovina, Slovenia succeeded in avoiding a complete disarmament by the JNA, and Croatia managed to import part of its armament across its borders that were open to other countries and to acquire another part of it as spoils of the September 1991 operation. There are also considerable differences with regard to objectives. When the goals of aggression and the goals of struggle to preserve independence and liberate occupied territories are concerned, the wars in Slovenia and Croatia had limited goals, and the aggression against Bosnia and Herzegovina involved radical goals. The war caught Bosnia and Herzegovina at the most difcult time. At the beginning of the war, the JNA had 14 corps in Bosnia and Herzegovina, partly or fully deployed: 3 main corps of the ground forces within the 2nd military zone (Sarajevo, Banjaluka and Tuzla corps), 2 corps of the ground forces were redeployed and became a part of the 2nd military zone (the Bileca-earlier Rijeka, Bihac and partly Knin corps). Parts of other corps of the ground forces deployed in the territory of Bosnia and
98

The Unnished Peace Report of the International Commission on the Balkans, Radio B92-Naa Borba, Belgrade, 1998, http://mmc.et.tudelft.nl/~sii/b92net/ unnishedpeace/nedovrseni_mir/uvod, access date: December 5, 2005.

42

CAUSES OF RISK FROM MINES AND ERW

Herzegovina belonged to the neighbouring military zones.99 No information exists about the number of mines included in the armament of the JNA units deployed in the territory of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Based on JNA engineering norms, the number was assessed as between 1.1 and 2.5 million mines. The international situation inuenced the character of the conicts. The UN attitude towards Bosnia and Herzegovina, as one of its members, was indecisive and the intervention inadequate. Although the neighbouring countries were incorporated into the war, both before and during it, the United Nations did not take any decisive measures to prevent it. Security Council Resolution 713 of 25 November 1991, imposing embargo on deliveries of weapons to SFR Yugoslavia, mostly affected Bosnia and Herzegovina. It prevented efcient defence and prolonged duration of the war. This Resolution and the Resolution to Establish a Ban on Military Flights in the Airspace of Bosnia and Herzegovina, which was adopted as Resolution 781 of the Security Council on 9 October 1992, had a considerable inuence upon the intensity of mine emplacement. Although air forces were used during the entire war, air force combat activities were of low intensity and did not have a signicant inuence on the course of the war. A weak air force support or an absence of it reduced the mobility of combat activities and favoured the formation of fronts in Bosnia and Herzegovina, which created conditions for more intensive emplacement of mines. In the analysis of the dynamics of laying mineelds in relation to mobility of forces and the course of peace negotiations, which is presented in graph 1 placed at the end of this chapter,100 some regular features can be observed. At the time of holding peace negotiations, the intensity of laying mineelds reached the lowest point, it increased after negotiations failed, and reached its maximum before the start of new negotiations. The length of the positions held during the war in Bosnia and Herzegovina totalled 19,578 km.101 Similar to the dynamics of laying mineelds, the monthly oscillation in length of the forward end of the battle positions that were abandoned (for any reasons: relocation to a new assault or defence position or for purposes of withdrawing from the positions after the end of the war) point to a connection with the dynamics of negotiations. Their increase points to intensied combat activities, which used to take place exactly in the time between negotiations. The failures of peace plans created by the international mediators, from the Cutileiro Plan of March 1992, Vance-Owen Plan of January 1993, Owen-Stoltenberg Plan of July 1993, European Union Action
99

eki S.: Agresija na Republiku Bosnu i Hercegovinu. Planiranje, priprema, izvoenje (Aggression against the Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Planning, Preparation and Execution). Book 1, Institute for Investigation of Crimes against Humanity and International Law, Sarajevo, 2004, page 770.

100 101

See Graph 1: Dynamics of laying mineelds in relation to mobility of forces and the course of peace negotiations, at the end of this chapter. During 2001 and 2002, the Mine Action Centre in Bosnia and Herzegovina conducted reconstruction of the positions held during the war in Bosnia and Herzegovina. 4,300 records were entered, which contain information about positions on the ground, armed formations that held them, month and year until which a position was held and length of the position held. This reconstruction was conducted based on the information from the ground, maps contained in the archives of entity armies and maps provided by the SFOR.

43

DARVIN LISICA

Plan of December 1993 and Contact Group Plan of July 1994, had a negative impact upon duration of the war. Negotiations actually prolonged the war and stimulated the perception of dividing Bosnia and Herzegovina. Under such circumstances, the role of mineelds was more to hold territories, waiting for results of negotiations, than to inuence the course of combat activities. Outdated doctrine and weapons of the JNA, more powerful heavy weapons and great troop concentration in the territory of Bosnia and Herzegovina contributed to the brutality of the war. Sieges of towns and their destruction, non-selective artillery and rocket activities, massive use of mortars and landmines, which were the tactical procedures and resources used, caused unnecessary victims and suffering in particular among the civilian population. Zunec states that, according to doctrines of the majority of western armies, mine laying and making of mine obstacles do not have a signicant inuence upon the outcome of the entire armed conict. As opposed to that, laying of mines was of strategic importance for the JNA and belonged among the main elements of armed combat. Massive preparation of mine and explosive obstacles played a special role in mine emplacement. The strategic orientation of the JNA to mines was logical, since it was able to develop a mass production of mines, which was a substitute for expensive anti-armour weapons needed for conducting holding operations at the critical stage of the war.102 All military formations in Bosnia and Herzegovina acted under the inuence of political circumstances and competition for territory. They marked each achievement in their ght for territories with mineelds, waiting for the results of negotiations that lasted during the entire war. In that sense, the peace negotiations encouraged combat activities and laying of mineelds. The wars resulting from the break-up of Yugoslavia were distinctly conventional, judging by the means used, the mode of ghting and the moral norms of the actors in these wars. At the same time, they were extended wars with reduced mobility, in which the JNA and its branches used artillery in a massive and wasteful manner, achieving poor combat results and causing unnecessary destruction and suffering to the civilian population. Mines were used massively, in an inexpert way and without signicant inuence on the course of combat activities. The distribution of mineelds in Bosnia and Herzegovina is such that it tells more about the goals of the war than about the mode of warfare. The purpose of mineelds was territorial conquest. They are mainly located along the borderlines of imaginary parastatal entities. The largest number of mineelds is located just within the inter-entity demarcation belt.

102

unec O.: Planet mina, Strata istraivanja (The Mine Planet. Strata Investigations), Zagreb, 1997, page 200.

44

2,100,000

Length of the forward end of battle positions at the moment of the abandonment (metre)

DYNAMICS OF LAYING MINEFIELDS IN RELATION TO MOBILITY OF FORCES AND THE COURSE OF PEACE NEGOTIATIONS

Number of minefields 700

SREBRENICA

NATO action "Determined Force"

The Cutillero Plan

The Vance-Owen Plan

The EU Action Plan

900,000

The Washington Agreement

1,200,000

The Owen-Stoltenberg Plan

The Contact Group Plan

1,500,000

The Dayton Peace Agreement

1,800,000

600

500

400

300

600,000

200

300,000

100

ARBiH - length of the forward end of b/p at the moment of the abandonment

VRS - length of the forward end of b/pat the moment of the abandonment

NO Zap. Bosna - length of the forward end of b/p at the moment of the abandonment

Jan-92 Feb-92 Mar-92 Apr-92 May-92 Jun-92 Jul-92 Aug-92 Sep-92 Oct-92 Nov-92 Dec-92 Jan-93 Feb-93 Mar-93 Apr-93 May-93 Jun-93 Jul-93 Aug-93 Sep-93 Oct-93 Nov-93 Dec-93 Jan-94 Feb-94 Mar-94 Apr-94 May-94 Jun-94 Jul-94 Aug-94 Sep-94 Oct-94 Nov-94 Dec-94 Jan-95 Feb-95 Mar-95 Apr-95 May-95 Jun-95 Jul-95 Aug-95 Sep-95 Oct-95 Nov-95 Dec-95 Jan-96 Feb-96 Mar-96 Apr-96
HVO - length of the forward end of b/p at the moment of the abandonment JNA - length of the forward end of b/p at the moment of the abandonment DYNAMICS OF LAYING MINEFIELDS

CAUSES OF RISK FROM MINES AND ERW

Graph 1: Dynamics of laying mineelds in relation to mobility of forces and the course of peace negotiation
Source of data: B&H Mine Action Centre archive and data base

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DARVIN LISICA

3.

INTERNATIONAL LAW, POLICY AND STRATEGIES FOR THE PROTECTION FROM MINES AND ERW

3.1.

International law and protection from mines and ERW

The process of international legal regulation of the protection from mines and ERW only began in the seventies of the 20th century. It is generally considered that the three following international legal documents form the legal framework for regulating protection from mines and explosive remnants of war:103 1. Protocol Additional to the Geneva Conventions of 12 August 1949 relating to the Protection of Victims of International Armed Conicts (Additional Protocol I) from 1977. 2. UN Convention on Prohibitions or Restrictions on the Use of Certain Conventional Weapons Which May Be Deemed to Be Excessively Injurious or to Have Indiscriminate Effects. 2.1. Protocol on Prohibitions or Restrictions on the Use of Mines, Booby Traps and Other Devices (Protocol II) from 1981, amended in 1996 (Amended Protocol II). 2.2. Protocol on Explosive Remnants of War from 2003 (Additional protocol V).
104

3. Convention on the Prohibition of the Use, Stockpiling, Production and Transfer of Anti-Personnel Mines and on their Destruction 1997, known as the Ottawa Convention or the Convention on the Prohibition of AntiPersonnel Mines. In addition to these base documents, protection from mines and ERW relies on some other conventions and international legal documents, such as: Universal Declaration of Human Rights, International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights, International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, UN Convention on the Rights of the Child, UN Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination Against Women, UN Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Racial Discrimination, Standard Regulations to Promote Equal Opportunities for Persons with Disabilities,
103 104

Mine Action and Effective Coordination: The United Nation Inter-Agency Policy, UN Mine Action Service, New York, 2005, page 2. The Protocol on Explosive Remnants of War did not enter into force until 1 October 2005. It entered into effect six months after having been signed by at least 20 countries.

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Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees with Protocols and Millennium Development Goals. Protocol Additional to the Geneva Conventions of 12 August 1949 relating to the Protection of Victims of International Armed Conicts (Additional Protocol I) from 1977. This Protocol afrms the principles of restricting armed conicts, dened in The Hague Convention Respecting the Laws and Customs of War on Land from 1907. It prohibits the employment of weapons and methods of warfare that cause excessive injury or unnecessary suffering, or that can cause widespread, long-term and severe damage to the natural environment.105 The Protocol further governs the protection of civilian population and civilian objects, the properties needed for the survival of population, the natural environment, and precautions that need to be taken during attacks in order to protect civilian population. Although none of the articles makes mention of mines and the protection from mines, the Additional Protocol Relating to the Protection of Victims of International Armed Conicts opened the way for the protection from mines and explosive remnants of war to be legally regulated. UN Convention on Prohibitions or Restrictions on the Use of Certain Conventional Weapons Which May Be Deemed to Be Excessively Injurious or to Have Indiscriminate Effects.106 The Preamble of the Convention conrms the most important principles of the International Law of War: the general principle of the protection of civilian population against the effects of hostilities, the principle that the right of the parties in an armed conict to choose methods or means of warfare is not unlimited, the principle that prohibits the employment of weapons of such nature that can cause excessive injury or unnecessary suffering. The Preamble recalls that it is prohibited to employ methods or means of warfare that may be expected to cause severe and long-term damage to the natural environment. Paragraph 5 of the Preamble reiterates the most important parts of the Martens Clause from The Hague Convention Respecting the Laws and Customs of War on Land from 1907, and in its Articles 1 and 7, this Convention relies upon the Protocol Additional to the Geneva Conventions of 12 August 1949, and relating to the Protection of Victims of International Armed Conicts (Additional Protocol I).
105

Article 35 of the Additional Protocol 1, source: Protocol Additional to the Geneva Conventions of 12 August 1949, and relating to the Protection of Victims of International Armed Conicts (Protocol I), www.ohchr.org/english/law/protocol1.htm, access date: 10 August 2006.

106

The Convention was adopted in 1981 and entered into force in 1983. Bosnia and Herzegovina ratied this Convention in 1993. Source: http://disarmament.un.org:8080/Treaty Status.nsf, access date 10 May 2005. A short version of the name is often used, which reads as follows: Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons.

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The Protocol on Prohibitions or Restrictions on the Use of Mines, Booby Traps and Other Devices (Protocol II), amended in 1996 (Amended Protocol II), forms a part of this Convention. This Protocol107 restricts, and in some circumstances also prohibits the use of mines, booby traps and other devices. It prompts the state parties to take measures to protect the population from mines, to clear, remove and destroy this ordnance from the territory under their control, and to provide assistance in clearing, removing and destroying mines from the territories that are under control of other state parties. In all cases, it prohibits the use of mines, booby traps and other devices that can cause superuous injury and unnecessary suffering, their use against civilian population or civilian objects, i.e. in any city, town or village or other areas containing high concentration of civilians. It governs the obligation of the state parties to assist the missions of the United Nations, Red Cross and other humanitarian missions in taking measures for the protection from mines. Weaknesses in this Protocol relate to its scope of application and they are the result of a series of compromises. The provision prohibiting mines that do not provide an adequate signal during their detection with a magnetic mine detection device assists demining, however, it is not practical from the aspect of the protection of civilian population. State parties were given a deadline of nine years to modify for use the existing mines that do not meet the detection criteria, instead of insisting on the obligation to destroy them. One of the weaknesses of the Protocol is the failure to elaborate the mechanisms for an efcient control of complying with its provisions. Despite a number of defects, this Convention cleared the way for new initiatives aimed at codication of a total ban on anti-personnel mines. The Protocol on Explosive Remnants of War from 2003 (Protocol V) governs postconict activities aimed at the reduction of risk and negative impacts arising from explosive remnants of war. The Protocol denes the term explosive remnants of war and their classication into unexploded ordnance (UXO) and abandoned explosive ordnance (AXO). It also governs the following: clearance, removal and destruction of explosive remnants of war, recording information, precautions for the protection of civilian population from the leftover explosive ordnance, protection of humanitarian missions and organisations, preventive measures, warning, education, marking and monitoring. Protocol V governs the protection from explosive remnants of war along the lines of previously standardised activities for protection from mines. It cleared the way for including protection from explosive remnants of war, as one of the consequences of armed conicts which are not only linked to mineelds, into the mine action system, in addition to earlier activities of destroying UXO found in the mineelds.
107

This connotes both Protocol II and Amended Protocol II. Although Amended Protocol II has been considerably extended in relation to Protocol II and may be considered a special instrument of the International Law, from the aspect of the protection from mines, there is no need to analyse their differences in legal terms.

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Convention on the Prohibition of the Use, Stockpiling, Production and Transfer of Anti-Personnel Mines and on their Destruction.108 This Convention cannot be deemed as a clear convention of the International Law of War. It was drafted as a result of the campaign of non-governmental organisations in the world, in which ICBL (International Campaign to Ban Landmines) had a leading role. The Convention was adopted at a conference held in Ottawa on 2 and 3 December 1997, and entered into force on 1 March 1999. The Preamble emphasises the determination to put an end to the suffering and casualties caused by anti-personnel mines, and the need to: undertake coordinated activities to solve the problem of mines and to assure their destruction; to impose a full ban on antipersonnel mines, provide assistance to mine victims, ensure their necessary care and rehabilitation and their social and economic integration. The last part of the Preamble is devoted to the Martens Clause, in a similar way, as is the case in the Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons. In Article 1 the state parties undertake never under any circumstances: a) to use anti-personnel mines; b) to develop, produce, otherwise acquire, stockpile, retain or transfer to anyone, directly or indirectly, anti-personnel mines; c) to assist, encourage or induce, in any way, anyone to engage in any activity prohibited to a State Party under this Convention. It further stipulates the obligation to destroy all anti-personnel mines, both stockpiled and emplaced in mined areas. The Convention denes a four-year period from the date of ratication of the Convention by the state parties, within which stockpiled mines are to be destroyed, and a ten-year period within which mines are to be removed from mineelds and destroyed. The Convention lays down a series of mechanisms for controlling the application of the provisions by the state parties. It also stipulates timeframes for meetings of the state parties. Reporting conferences on the operation and status of the Convention will be held every year. Pursuant to the provisions of the Convention, the rst review conference was held in Nairobi ve years from its entering into force, from 29 November to 3 December 2004. The Summit in Nairobi was attended by 110 member states of the Convention, 25 states that did not join the Convention at that time, 350 representatives of nongovernmental organisations from 82 countries, a total of more than 1300 people.109 Four documents were adopted at the rst review conference:110
108

The name Ottawa Convention or Convention on the Prohibition of Anti-Personnel Mines is often used instead of its full name Convention on the Prohibition of the Use, Stockpiling, Production and Transfer of Anti-Personnel Mines and on their Destruction. Nairobi Summit on a Mine-Free World, Report on Activities, ICBL, 2005, page 3. Documents adopted at the rst review conference in Nairobi were published by the Geneva International Centre for Humanitarian Demining in June 2005 under the name: From Ottawa to Nairobi and beyond. Key Documents in the Global Effort to End the Suffering Caused by Anti-Personnel Mines.

109 110

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1. The Operation and Status of the Convention 1999-2004 is an 80-page report on the status of the Convention and the implementation of the provisions by the state parties. According to the document, signicant progress has been made in the implementation of the Convention since its adoption. 33 out of 50 states that produced anti-personnel mines in 1999 signed the Convention. The global trade in anti-personnel mines has effectively ceased. In addition to 144 state parties, many other states, which are not yet members of the Convention, terminated trade in anti-personnel mines. The use of antipersonnel mines has also dramatically decreased. 2. Ending the Suffering Caused by Anti-Personnel Mines: the Nairobi Action Plan 2005-2009contains 70 actions to be undertaken by the state parties, which include the following spheres: implementing the Convention, destroying stockpiled anti-personnel mines, clearing mines, assisting the victims and other activities essential for achieving the Conventions aims. 3. Programme of meetings and other matters related to the implementation of the Convention in the period leading to the Second Review Conference to be held in 2009. 4. Towards a Mine-Free World: the 2004 Nairobi Declaration. The Declaration emphasises that a signicant advance has been made towards achieving the goals aimed at ending the suffering caused by anti-personnel mines. Despite the results achieved, mines still pose a serious problem for the lives and health of the population, inhibit repatriation of refugees and obstruct development. At the end, all countries are called upon to pursue the spirit of the Convention, invest additional efforts and provide nancial and other resources towards achieving the goal of a world free of mines and mine victims. The Summit in Nairobi found powerful response in the world. A number of important gatherings were held on the margins of the Conference, such as the Survivor Summit, International Youth Symposium, meeting with donor countries, at which mine action strategies for the mine-affected countries were presented, and other special meetings by working groups. The non-governmental sector, lead by the International Campaign to Ban Landmines (ICBL), played an important role in the entire process. In addition to the inuence exerted upon the course of the Conference, ICBL organised a series of special meetings, in order to recruit other countries to become members of the Convention.111
111

See more in the document: Nairobi Summit in a Mine-Free World, Report on Activities, ICBL, 2005, pages 10-15.

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INTERNATIONAL LAW, POLICY AND STRATEGIES FOR THE PROTECTION FROM MINES AND ERW

3.2.

Mine action

Emergence and development of mine action The beginning of the activities now known as mine action is linked with November 1988, when the United Nations developed the rst programme for humanitarian demining in Afghanistan. This term was selected in order to make a clear difference between mine clearance for humanitarian purposes and military mine clearance. The rst non-governmental humanitarian organisation for mine clearance was established in the same year under the name The Hazardous Area Life-Support Organisation (HALO Trust). Mines Advisory Group (MAG) followed, being set up to conduct the rst research into the impact of mines in Afghanistan in 1989. In 1992, NPA- Norwegian People Aid and Handicap International, two large humanitarian organisations, included mine action into their programmes starting with Cambodia and continuing with other mine-affected countries. The term mine action originates from the time when the Canadian engineers made a proposal to name the Cambodian national authority in charge of the management and coordination of mine clearance activities the Cambodian Mine Action Centre.112 Commercial organisations for humanitarian demining appeared on clearance operations in Kuwait following the First Gulf Wart. The rst phase, in which mine action was established, ended in 1994. The second phase started in 1995 by issuing the rst guidelines for humanitarian demining, and it lasted until 1998. That phase focused on mine action standardisation and the rst International Standards for Humanitarian Mine Clearance Operations113 were published in 1997, and the rst International Guidelines for Landmine and Unexploded Ordnance Awareness Education114 were published the following year. The focus of the third phase, which commenced in 1999, was mine action improvement and professionalisation. The United Nations adopted the rst mine action international standards in 2001. They were rst reviewed in 2003. The notion of mine action International Mine Action Standards dene mine action as the activities which aim to reduce the social, economic and environmental impact of mines, with the note Mine action is not just about demining; it is also about people and societies, and
112 113

A Guide to Mine Action, Geneva International Centre for Humanitarian Demining, Geneva, 2003, page 20 International Conference on Mine Clearance Technology, Report of the International Conference on Mine Clearance Technology, www.un.org/Depts/dha/, access date: 12 July 2005. UN Mine Action Service (UNMAS) published standards under the name: International Standards for Humanitarian Mine Clearance Operations in March 1997. The proposal for these standards was adopted at the International Conference on Mine Clearance Technologies held in Denmark from 2 to 4 July 1996. Apart from working on the standards, this Conference also dealt with the analysis of the past experiences and mine clearance technologies. Original: International Guidelines for Landmine and Unexploded Ordnance Awareness Education, UNICEF, New York, 1998.

114

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how they are affected by landmine contamination. The objective of mine action is to reduce the risk from landmines to a level where people can live safely; in which economic, social and health development can occur free from the constraints imposed by landmine contamination, and in which the victims needs can be addressed.115 The Mine Action Strategy of Bosnia and Herzegovina denes mine action as a set of activities aimed at solving the problem of impacts resulting from mine and UXO contamination, seeking the re-establishment of a safe environment in the areas contaminated with leftover mineelds and UXO, thereby allowing a normal life of people and economic development.116 Five components of mine action Mine action includes ve interconnected components: (1) Mine risk education; (2) Humanitarian demining: mine and UXO survey (general, technical, nal), mapping, marking and (if necessary) clearance; (3) Victim assistance, including their rehabilitation and reintegration; (4) Destroying stockpiled anti-personnel mines; (5) Advocacy against the use of anti-personnel mines. In addition to these ve core components, a number of other important activities are conducted, which ensure high efciency, quality and stability of the process, such as: mine situation assessment, activity planning and priority setting, quality and information management, structure development and training, provision of adequate equipment and mobilisation of resources. Mine risk education117. International standards provide several similar denitions of mine risk education. The Glossary of International Mine Action Standards (IMAS 04.10) denes mine risk education as a process that promotes the adoption of safer behaviours by at-risk groups, and which provides the links between affected communities, other mine action components and other sectors.118 In the Guide of the Management of Mine Risk Education (IMAS 07.11) this term refers to educational activities aimed at reducing the risk of injury from mines and UXO by raising awareness and promoting behavioural change through public-information campaigns, education and training, and liaison with communities.119 Humanitarian demining is the oldest and, according to the scope of committed nancial, material and human resources, the dominant mine activity. International Mine Action Standards dene the term of humanitarian demining as the activities, which lead to the removal of mine and ERW hazards, including technical survey,
115 116 117

International Mine Action Standards, IMAS 4.10, Second Edition, 2003, page 16. Mine Action Strategy in Bosnia and Herzegovina, 2004, page 5.

Until 2002 this component was called Mine Awareness. This term may be found individually or in combination with the new name in many UN documents and on web pages. It commonly occurs in a transitional form that reads Mine awareness and risk reduction education. International Mine Action Standards, IMAS 4.10, Second Edition, 2003, page 16. Same, IMAS 7.11, First Edition, 2003, page 7.

118 119

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INTERNATIONAL LAW, POLICY AND STRATEGIES FOR THE PROTECTION FROM MINES AND ERW

mapping, clearance, marking, post-clearance documentation, community mine action liaison and the handover of cleared land.120 In addition to these elements, as they are dened by the international standards, a part of humanitarian demining in Bosnia and Herzegovina is general survey of mineelds, designing tasks for humanitarian demining operations and assuring quality of humanitarian demining121. Humanitarian demining and mine risk education together form mine risk reduction activities. Instead of the term humanitarian demining, the term clearance of mines and ERW (which includes all other activities that used to form humanitarian demining) has been introduced into the United Nations new mine action policy. No essential changes have basically been made from the viewpoint of risk management. However, insisting on the use of the term clearance of mines and ERW, which implies complete risk elimination, may have a negative impact upon the application of the risk management concept. Victim assistance, including their rehabilitation and reintegration. According to the International Mine Action Standards, victim assistance refers to all aid, relief, comfort and support provided to victims (including survivors) with the purpose of reducing the immediate and long-term medical and psychological implications of their trauma.122 Destroying stockpiled anti-personnel mines. According to the International Mine Action Standards, stockpile destruction refers to the physical destructive procedure towards a continual reduction of the national stockpile.123 Advocacy against the use of anti-personnel mines.124 A component of mine action that refers to public support, recommendation or positive publicity with the aim of removing, or at least reducing, the risk from, and the impact of, mines and ERW. International Mine Action Standards Development of mine action standardisation started in July 1996, with the conclusions of the Copenhagen conference. First measures were prescribed and universal, demining denitions agreed at that conference. UN Mine Action Service (UMNAS) took over the development of the standards and published the rst International Standards for Demining Operations as early as March 1997. These standards improved the organisation and quality of work within humanitarian demining, however, at the same time they provided a too narrow framework, since they only regulated humanitarian demining operations on the ground, and no other mine action components and
120 121 122 123 124

Same, IMAS 04.10, Second Edition, 2003, page 6.

Conceptual denition of the elements of humanitarian demining will be presented in the part that describes mine action in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Same, IMAS 04.10, Second Edition, 2003, page 27. Same, IMAS 04.10, Second Edition, 2003, page 25. Same, IMAS 04.10, Second Edition, 2003, page 2.

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activities. In October 1999, the Geneva International Centre for Humanitarian Demining prepared a review of the standards. The rst draft of the standards was published in the same month of the following year. A meeting of the Inter-Agency Coordination Group on Mine Action, chaired by the Under-Secretary General for Peacekeeping Operations, was held on 26 September 2001. The First Edition of the International Mine Action Standards (IMAS) was endorsed at that meeting. Their basic purpose is to increase safety, efciency and quality of mine action. They also present the basis for training all mine action participants and the minimum of provisions that mine-affected countries use as a starting point in developing their own standards. The International Standards comply with international conventions and agreements. They are written on the model of the International Standardisation Organisation (ISO) and use its language. They were amended and extended in the Second Edition from 2003.125

3.3.

United Nations policy and strategies for the protection from mines and ERW

UN policy for the protection from mines and ERW A number of organisations from the UN system are engaged in protection from mines and ERW. Coordination and harmonisation of their mutual activities required a mechanism to be developed, which would dene the common policy in this domain. The policy for the protection from mines and ERW is dened by the Inter-Agency Coordination Group on Mine Action, chaired by the UN Under-Secretary General for Peacekeeping Operations.126 The Inter-Agency Group endorsed the rst document dening the common policy for mine protection in 1998.127 In the following years, this document was the basis of the activities for the protection from mines and mine action strategic planning at a global level. Since 1998 progress has been achieved in the international and legal regulation of the mine problem. The Ottawa Mine Ban Convention entered into force, the Protocol on Explosive Remnants of War was passed within the Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons and International Mine Action Standards were endorsed. New technologies in clearance of mines and ERW found their application. These changes enforced the need for revising and amending the policy.
125 126 127

All about International Mine Action Standards, including all adopted standards and drafts, can be found at www.mineactionstandards.org See Graphic 9: Composition of the Inter-Agency Coordination Group on Mine Action The name of this document is Mine action and effective coordination: the United Nations Policy.

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INTERNATIONAL LAW, POLICY AND STRATEGIES FOR THE PROTECTION FROM MINES AND ERW

In June 2005, the Inter-Agency Group endorsed a new document named Mine Action and Effective Coordination: The United Nations Inter-Agency Policy. The rst part of the document denes visions and objectives of the UN policy, the relation between mine action policy and strategy, ve pillars of mine action, the general context and legal framework for solving the problem of mines. The UN vision is a world free of the threat of landmines and explosive remnants of war (ERW), where individuals and communities live in a safe environment conducive to development and where the needs of mine and ERW victims are met and they are fully integrated into their societies.128

MEMBERS OF THE UN INTER-AGENCY COORDINATION GROUP ON MINE ACTION (IACG-MA)

MINE ACTION SUPPORT GROUP (MASG) -DONORS FORUM AT UNUN UNDER-SECRETARY FOR PEACEKEEPENG OPERATIONS -CHAIRFORUM OF MINE AFFECTED COUNTRIES AT UN

WORLD BANK (WB) -OBSERVER-

UN SECRETARIAT DEPARTMENT OF PEACEKEEPING OPERATIONS (DPKO) UN MINE ACTION SERVICE (UNMAS)

UN DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME (UNDP) MINE ACTION TEAM

UN CHILDRENS FUND (UNICEF) LANDMINES AND LIGHT WEAPONS TEAM

UN SECRETARIAT DEPARTMENT FOR DISARMAMENT AFFAIRS (DDA)

OFFICE FOR THE COORDINATION OF HUMANITARIAN AFFAIRS (OCHA)

UN OFFICE FOR PROJECT SERVICES (UNOPS)

OFFICE OF THE SPECIAL ADVISER ON GENDER ISSUES (OSAGI) WORLD FOOD PROGRAMME (WFP)

OFFICE OF THE UN HIGH COMMISSIONER FOR REFIGEES (UNHCR)

WORLD HEALTH ORGANISATION (WHO) DEPARTMENT OF INJURIES AND VIOLENCE PREVENTION

OFFICE OF HIGH COMMISSIONER FOR HUMAN RIGHTS (OHCHR)

FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANISATION (FAO)

Graphic 8: Composition of the UN Inter-Agency Coordination Group on Mine Action

The UN vision inspired strategic visions in a number of affected countries that accepted it in its entirety or partly changed. In comparison to the spirit of the Ottawa Convention, it is milder, as it speaks of a world free of the threat and a safe environment, and not of a mine-free world in the spirit of the Convention.129
128 129

Mine Action and Effective Coordination: The United Nations Inter-Agency Policy, 2005, page 1. The ofcial motto of the last review conference held in Nairobi at the end of 2004 was a Mine-Free World.

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The document denes the common position of the United Nations, its specialised agencies, funds and programmes. It talks about 23 common principles for the implementation of the policy for the protection from mines and ERW, which are of global importance. They not only dene the position and course of action of the United Nations, but also of the affected countries that mainly depend on the support from international organisations and major donors. From the point of view of Bosnia and Herzegovina, the following three principles are most important: 1. Assistance to mine-affected states and national ownership of protection from mines and ERW which supports the establishment of a national mine action authority at three levels. The rst level is a regulatory and national policy institution at the inter-ministerial level. The second level is a coordination body responsible for planning and supervising mine action. Operating organizations that conduct mine action form the third level, and they may be of non-governmental, commercial, civil defence, police or military nature. 2. Planning and evaluation at the level of mine-affected community a new principle that promotes more efcient exploitation of all resources and participation of citizens in priority setting. 3. Linking with other development priorities implies linking of mine action with other development priorities whose implementation is either conditioned or restricted by the existence of mines and ERW. The second part regulates in more detail the role and responsibility of the UN in decision-making, coordination of activities, the manner of providing assistance to affected countries and the manner of managing programmes. It further denes the key activities for protection from mines and ERW, which are carried under the UN-supported or directly, managed mine action programmes. The last part of the document denes core competencies and activities of individual UN agencies, funds and programmes, and members of the Inter-Agency Coordination Group on Mine Action. The UN policy for the protection from mines and ERW is of global importance. It has been the basic document for the endorsement of the UN Mine Action Strategy and the special UNICEF Mine Action Strategy for 2006-2009. It will inspire the endorsement of regional and national policies for the protection from mines and ERW and improve strategic planning. Those are necessary prerequisites for efcient conduct of mine action operations and for maintaining the attention and condence of the donors upon whom affected countries are dependent. UN Mine Action Strategies The UN General Assembly launched mine action strategic planning with Resolution 55/20 of December 2000. The rst UN Mine Action Strategy was adopted for 2001-

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INTERNATIONAL LAW, POLICY AND STRATEGIES FOR THE PROTECTION FROM MINES AND ERW

2005.130 Speedy progress of mine action prompted the endorsement of a new resolution of the UN General Assembly in January 2003 under number 51/159. This Resolution launched the process of reviewing the strategy and the text of the Resolution seeks the taking into account of the views of Member States and taking into consideration the impact of the landmine problem on rehabilitation, reconstruction and development, in order to ensure the effectiveness of assistance in mine action by the United Nations.131 The strategy revision was completed in the meeting between the UN representatives and a group of invited experts,132 and adopted in the meeting held by the UN InterAgency Coordination Group on Mine Action on 15 July 2003. The revised document did not undergo major changes. It is composed of ve parts: introduction, vision, key principles, mission statement and strategic goals and operational objectives. The starting point for drafting this strategy was the UN policy on the protection from mines and UXO, so that the vision was taken over in its entirety from the document named Mine Action and Effective Coordination: the United Nations Policy, adopted in 1998. The strategic vision of a world free of the threat of landmines and unexploded ordnance, where individuals and communities live in a safe environment conducive to development and where mine survivors are fully integrated into their societies,133 differs in part from the new vision dened in the UN policy of 2005. These two visions differ in the part that speaks of ERW instead of UXO, and in the part that speaks of mine victims instead of mine survivors. Mine victims is a broader term, which includes survivors, but also their families and the families of those killed by mines and ERW. The Strategy builds from six core principles: community-centred approach, humanitarian imperative, development perspective, national ownership, cooperation and partnership, and gender mainstreaming. The mission statement denes the global role of the UN in mine action operations. It emphasises that the UN will work in partnership with others to reduce the threat posed by landmines and unexploded ordnance, increase the understanding of the global mine problem, assist affected nations and coordinate international mine action efforts. The Strategy denes 6 strategic goals and 48 operational objectives related to the strategic goals. Each strategic goal covers one of the following mine action areas dealt with by the
130 131

It was endorsed in the meeting of the UN Inter-Agency Coordination Group on Mine Action on 26 September 2001. United Nations Mine Action: a Strategy for 2001-2005 (Revised 2003), page 3, original version in English: General Assembly Resolution 51/159 of 27 January 2003 requested the Secretary-General to formally review the United Nations mine action strategy for the period 2001-2005 by further seeking and taking into account the views of Member States and taking into consideration the impact of the landmine problem on rehabilitation, reconstruction and development, in order to ensure the effectiveness of assistance in mine action by the United Nations.

132

The group of experts was selected among programme managers, managers of the national bodies of mine-affected countries, representatives of donors and experts from the non-governmental sector. I personally attended the meeting as a member of the expert group. The nal meeting was held on 30 June and 1 July 2003 in Florence, Italy. Work results of ve regional review groups were discussed in the meeting, strategic and operational objectives established were analysed and a draft revised strategy was prepared for the meeting to be held by the UN Inter-Agency Coordination Group on Mine Action. United Nations Mine Action: a Strategy for 2001-2005 (Revised 2003), page 3.

133

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UN: information, coordination of programmes managed by the UN, assistance to national and local mine action programmes, quality management, mobilisation and coordination of resources, and advocacy. The major weakness of this Strategy is lack of a strategic plan, which would elaborate the concept and the main tasks to enable the achievement of the strategic and operational goals. The adoption of the rst UN Mine Action Strategy provided a more efcient implementation of the UN policy on the protection from mines and UXO and inspired the development of strategic planning in the affected states. The new UN Mine Action Strategy134 for 2006-2010 arises from the mine action policy adopted by the UN Inter-Agency Coordination Group one year earlier. This strategy differs from the previous in the drafting methodology and substance. The vision was taken over in its entirety from the document Mine Action and Effective Coordination: The United Nations Inter-Agency Policy, adopted in 2005. The situation analysis, composed of short conclusions, has been included in the new strategy instead of the core principles. The conclusions emphasise that, in the last ve years, the capacity to solve the landmine and ERW problem has increased through better understanding of mine impacts, clearer priorities and more efcient risk reduction. The need to adhere to the international agreements and conventions that regulate the problem of mines and ERW is accentuated. A considerably diminished use of anti-personnel mines in the period from 1999 to 2005 is also outlined. Many donors are expected to continue providing their support if the beneciaries clearly demonstrate mine action effectiveness. The most important prerequisites for further progress of mine action operations have been identied: taking ownership of mine action operations by the affected states, their institutional strengthening for such tasks, improved coordination and cooperation among the participators in the process, integration of mine action into national development plans and creating national capacity for conducting mine action operations. The most important risks of the UN Mine Action Strategy are linked with these conclusions. In comparison with the previous strategy, the new strategy does not contain a mission statement. The main strategic goal has been dened in a similar way as it was the case in the earlier mission statement. Four measurable strategic objectives have also been identied. Reduce death and injury from mines and ERW by at least 50 percent is the rst strategic objective. Mitigate the risk to community livelihoods and expand freedom of movement for at least 80 percent of the most seriously affected communities, is the second strategic objective. The next objective is to integrate mine-action needs into national development and reconstruction plans and budgets in at least 15 countries. The fourth strategic objective is to assist the national institutions in developing the capacity to manage and conduct mine action operations in at least 15 countries. Major activities and indicators are outlined for each of these objectives. It can be observed that the UN Mine Action Strategy for 20062010 contains more elements related to risk management than the previous strategy. That inuence is particularly observable in dening the strategic objectives.
134

United Nations Inter-Agency Mine Action Strategy: 2006-2010, source: www.mineaction.org/ doc. asp?d=558, access date 10 August 2006.

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INTERNATIONAL LAW, POLICY AND STRATEGIES FOR THE PROTECTION FROM MINES AND ERW

The UNICEF Mine Action Strategy, which also nds its source in the common UN policy on the protection from mines and ERW, was endorsed parallel with the rst UN Mine Action Strategy from the year 2000. The UNICEF Strategy is a special strategy in relation to the UN (general) Mine Action Strategy. It is special since it is focused on the protection of children, their families and the communities they live in. The value of this Strategy is that it encourages integration in planning and implementation of different mine action components for more efcient mine and ERW risk reduction. It makes mention of the term explosive remnants of warERW for the rst time, instead of the narrower term unexploded ordnanceUXO. It denes 3 strategic goals and 18 operational objectives related to the strategic goals. The strategic goals include three areas within the UNICEF mandate: mine risk education, promoting the Ottawa Convention and assistance to mine victims. The last part of the document is dedicated to the implementation of the Strategy. A matrix of responsibilities for carrying out the tasks, through which strategic goals and operational objectives are to be achieved, has been elaborated instead of a strategic plan.

3.4.

The European Union policy and strategy for the protection from mines and ERW

The Council of the European Union and the European Parliament adopted two regulations on 23 July 2001. The rst regulation governs the action against antipersonnel mines in developing countries,135 and the other governs the same activities in third countries other than developing countries.136 Both documents are similar in their substance. The introductory part states twenty principles, which the action against anti-personnel mines rests on. Connection with the Ottawa Landmine Ban Convention is accentuated, as well as the decisiveness of the European Union to contribute to full elimination of anti-personnel mines. Mine action operations that it carries out are a part of humanitarian aid, rehabilitation, reconstruction and development activities, aligned with its common foreign and security policy. The Regulation denes eight main objectives of mine action. The rst and the second objective refer to the European Unions assistance to mine-affected countries in the implementation of a civilian mine action strategy and the Ottawa Convention. The third objective refers to creating international and local structures capable of carrying out mine actions with maximum effectiveness. Responding to humanitarian emergency, preventing casualties and assisting the rehabilitation of mine victims is
135

Regulation (EC) No 1724/2001 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 July 2001 concerning action against anti-personal landmines in developing countries, Ofcial Journal of the European Communities, 1 September 2001, pages L234/1-5. Council regulation (EC) No 1725/2001 of 23 July 2001 concerning action against anti-personal landmines in third countries other than developing countries, Ofcial Journal of the European Communities, 1 September 2001, pages L234/6-9.

136

59

DARVIN LISICA

the fourth objective of the European Union. The fth and the sixth objective dene support to projects for developing detection and mine clearance technology and equipment, and transfer of knowledge and equipment into the poorest, mine-affected countries. The seventh objective encourages such mine actions that are adjusted to the environment of an affected country and consistent with its development priorities. The last objective emphasizes the importance of coordination among all international mine action actors. The European Mine Action Strategy was adopted for 2005-2007. It consists of ve sections. Section I is dedicated to the context in which the strategy was endorsed after the Nairobi Summit, the legal basis for adopting the strategy in relation to other European Union strategies and the nancial envelope for mine action. Section II deals with the global landmine problem and the role of the European Union in solving it. The European Union mine action vision is a world free from the threat of antipersonnel landmines and UXO, in which all mine-affected countries themselves are able to take full control of their APL and UXO problems and to provide victims with prompt care and ongoing assistance.137 Section III is a summary from the strategic analysis formulated in form of an analysis of the needs and lessons learned from the past mine action operations. Section IV discusses the strategy as response to the needs and is composed of the strategic, thematic and horizontal objectives, geographic priorities and indicators for the measurement of success. The strategic objective of the European Union is to drastically reduce the lingering threat and impact of landmines in the context of increased local security and regional condence.138 The Strategy denes three thematic objectives with a number of special thematic objectives: T1. To reduce anti-personnel landmine threat: (objective T1.1) supporting mine risk education, (objective T1.2) supporting landmine detection, marking and clearance operations, (objective T1.3) supporting the destruction of stockpiled anti-personnel landmines. T2. To alleviate mine victim suffering and aid socioeconomic reintegration: (objective T2.1) supporting or creating local victim assistance services close to communities with high landmine casualty rates. T3. To enhance local and regional impacts of effective mine action capacity: (objective T3.1) providing local mine action structures with cost-effective and efcient mine detection and clearance technologies and the skills required to use them, (objective T3.2) supporting, enhancing and optimising the use of landmine impact surveys. Related to the thematic objectives are horizontal objectives, which deal with the improvement and measurement of efciency and cost-effectiveness of mine action operations. That is also the only main horizontal objective. Special horizontal
137 138

The European Union Mine Actions in the World, European Commission, Luxembourg, 2004, page 17. Same, page 23.

60

INTERNATIONAL LAW, POLICY AND STRATEGIES FOR THE PROTECTION FROM MINES AND ERW

objectives relate to: (objective H1.1) improving the existing technologies, supporting developing of new, more cost-effective and efcient solutions, (objective H1.2) improving the system for mine clearance priority setting, (objective H1.3) improving the evaluation and assessment of the European Union projects and sharing lessons learned, (objective H1.4) monitoring the landmine issues and raising global awareness, (objective 1.5) supporting and enhancing the coordination of donors, (objective H1.6) involving armed movements and groups into the process of the total ban on antipersonnel mines. Geographic priorities of the European Union are dened based on 6 criteria: (G1) commitment to the Ottawa Convention, (G2) high humanitarian and development needs of countries and their population, (G3) strategic importance for the EU, (G4) sustainability and coherence with wider assistance programmes, (G5) proven commitment of non-states parties of the Ottawa Convention to its principles and mine action operations and (G6) efciency and effectiveness of local/national mine action planning and programmes. The European Union and its members earmark considerable funds for mine action in the affected countries. In a three-year long period (2000-2002), the EU and its members earmarked 410 million euros for that purpose. In the period 1999-2002, it set aside 30.82 million euros for mine action in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and in 2003 that amount totalled 5.46 million euros. It is expected that the European Union will continue to support mine action in Bosnia and Herzegovina at the current level until the end of 2009.

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DARVIN LISICA

4.

IMPACT OF LEFTOVER MINES AND ERW ON POST-CONFLICT COUNTRIES

4.1.

The problem of leftover mines and UXO in Bosnia and Herzegovina

4.1.1. General assessment of mine situation

In addition to other consequences for the country, the war in Bosnia and Herzegovina has left behind a grim legacy of mines and UXO, which can be found in almost all parts of the country. The information about the number of mines and mineelds, their distribution and impact upon the population and total socio-economic development is neither reliable, nor complete. Our experiences, as well as the experiences of other mine-affected countries show that a lack of knowledge about the context in which the problem of leftover mines and UXO is solved, makes a successful planning and implementation of protective measures more difcult or blocks them. Identifying the context of mine risk management is the starting point in mine action planning. The process of collecting and processing data on suspected locations of mine contamination (characteristics of a contaminated area, hazard level, types of ordnance, soil characteristics, etc.), about the impact of the mine problem upon the micro and macro levels, and about mine action results is called general mine action assessment.139 General mine action assessment in Bosnia and Herzegovina includes two basic elements: general mine situation assessment and mine action analysis. The problem of leftover mines and UXO is dealt with by the general mine situation assessment, which includes three interconnected sub-processes: (1) collecting, processing and analysing data on mineelds and mines, (2) examining mine impacts, which determines the socio-economic impact of mines upon affected communities and the country as a whole, (3) systematic survey that identies, records and processes data on suspected locations as risk sources (distribution, size, shape, potential purpose and priorities). The starting data for mine situation assessment are stored in the central database and the operational records of the Mine Action Centre in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
139

International Mine Action Standards, IMAS 04.10, Second Edition, 2003, page 10: General mine action assessment - the process by which a comprehensive inventory can be obtained of all reported and/or suspected locations of mine or UXO contamination, the quantities and types of explosive hazards, and information on local soil characteristics, vegetation and climate; and assessment of the scale and impact of the landmine problem on the individual, community and country.

62

IMPACT OF LEFTOVER MINES AND ERW ON POST-CONFLICT COUNTRIES

The central database comprises a number of specialized and interconnected special databases. There are special databases about mineelds, military clearance of mines, clearance, technical and general survey, marking of mineelds, affected communities and mine risk education, related to mine situation assessment and operations management. Mine action quality management relies upon the database of inspection of demining workplaces, the database of accredited organisations with human and material resources, and the database of accredited deminers in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Data on mine incidents and victims were scattered in different organisations. Their integration into a single database of victims, mine incidents and activities aimed at providing assistance to mine victims was launched in 2005. It will require additional collection of information on the ground for the purpose of their authentication as well as their standardisation and collection of new information about victims. The databases contain two types of records, the alpha-numeric and vector records. The alpha-numeric records comprise all data, both numeric and descriptive, which is stored in the original documents inherited from the war and post-war period, or which arises as a result of mine action operations. Vector records are entered in a special part, including topographic and land-registry background. The majority of data is suitable for statistical processing.

4.1.2. Mines and mineelds in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Classes and types of mines Information about types and classes of mines in Bosnia and Herzegovina differs in part depending on the source. Records about the types of mines used during the war in Bosnia and Herzegovina may be analysed using the mineeld, military mine clearance and humanitarian demining databases. The mineeld database contains records about the types of mines, taken over from the mineeld records kept during the war in Bosnia and Herzegovina. There are seven types of anti-personnel mines and seven types of anti-tank mines of Yugoslav production, and one category of each unidentied and other mines registered in this database. The military mine clearance database contains records about the types of mines, taken over from the mineeld records kept from 1996 to 1998. It is about mine clearance in accordance with the records, carried out by entity armies before they changed over to humanitarian demining. Apart from the organic mines of Yugoslav production,

63

DARVIN LISICA

MINE DIMENSIONS

MINE BODY

EXPLOSIVE CHARGE

FUSE

ANTI-MAGNETIC FEATURE

MINIMUM ACTIVATING FORCE (daN)

LENGTH/RADIUS (mm)

HEIGHT (mm)

ACTIVATION

WEIGHT (kg)

WEIGHT (kg)

WIDTH (mm)

TIGHTNESS

MATERIAL

MINE NAME

MINE TYPE

NAME

TYPE OF EXPLOSIVE

PMA-1A

anti-personnel pressure anti-personnel pressure anti-personnel pressure anti-personnel fragmentation anti-personnel fragmentation anti-personnel fragmentation (illumination) anti-personnel fragmentation anti-personnel fragmentation anti-personnel fragmentation anti-personnel fragmentation bounding anti-personnel fragmentation bounding anti-personnel fragmentation directional anti-personnel pressure anti-tank metal

140

68

31

0,400

juvidur or bakelite

no

yes

TNT charge

0,200

UMPAH-1

pressure

PMA-2

68

61

0,135

polystyrene

yes

yes

pressed TNT

0,070

UMPAH-2

pressure

PMA-3

103

36

0,183

polystyrene, rubber cast steel cast steel

yes

yes

pressed TNT (tetryl) pressed TNT pressed TNT

0,035

UMPAH-3

pressure

PMR-1 PMR-2

80 80

/ /

120 120

2,00 2,200

no no

no no

0,075 0,075

UPM-1 UPM-1

3 3

trip trip

PMR-2A(S)

66

133

1,700

cast steel

no

no

pressed TNT

0,100

UPMR-2A(S)

trip

PMR-3

78

134

3,000

wrought iron

yes

no

Cast TNT and tetryl amplifer TNT economic brisant explosives cast TNT (TNT and tetryl)

0,410

UPMR-3

4 12 2

pressure trip trip

PMR-4

80

130

2,00

cast steel

no

0,200

UPM-1

PPMP-2

60

140

1,200

steel

no

0,150

trip

PROM-1(P)

75

260

3,000

forged steel

yes

no

0,425

UPROM-1

3 9

trip pressure

PROM-2

85

200

1,30

MRUD

231

46

89

1,500

plastic

no

no

Plastic explosive

0,900

(EK-40-69)

electric, trip 10 pressure

Goradanka

58

115

0,120

plastic

0,050

TMM-1A

325

85

8,500

steel sheet

no

no

cast TNT

7,500

UTMM-1

80

pressure

TMA-1A

anti-tank anti-magnetic

315

100

6,500

juvidur

no

yes

cast TNT (with pressed TNT amplifier) cast TNT (with 2 pressed TNT amplifiers) cast TNT (with 4 pressed TNT amplifiers) cast TNT (with 3 pressed TNT amplifiers) cast TNT in two blocks (one block in TMA-5A) with impulse charge made of pressed TNT) Cast TNT with pressure plate TNT/RDX (50/50)

5,550

UANU-1

200

pressure

TMA-2A

anti-tank anti-magnetic

330

260

100

7,000

juvidur

no

yes

6,500

2x UANU-1

200

pressure

TMA-3

anti-tank anti-magnetic

265

110

7,000

no

no

yes

7,000

3x UTMAH-3

180

pressure

TMA-4

anti-tank anti-magnetic

285

100

6,300

polystyrene

yes

yes

5,500

3x UTMAH-4

100

pressure

TMA-5(A)

anti-tank anti-magnetic

312

272

109

6,600 (7,500)

polystyrene

yes (no)

yes

5,675 (4,700)

UANU-1

100

pressure

TMPR-6

anti-tank shaped charge anti-tank anti-magnetic (Chinese) anti-tank anti-magnetic (Soviet)

290

377

7,200

polystyrene

yes

no

5,200

UTMPR-6

150 1,3

pressure lever

TIP 72

270

100

6,500

plastic

no

5,400

300

pressure

TMD-B, TMD44

320

290

160

10,000

wood

MV-5K

pressure

Table 1: Types and characteristics of mines in the mineelds of Bosnia and Herzegovina

64

IMPACT OF LEFTOVER MINES AND ERW ON POST-CONFLICT COUNTRIES

this database also records improvised mines and mines produced during the war. The total number recorded is 33 types of anti-personnel and 14 types of anti-tank mines. Although the number of types in this database is larger by far than in the mineeld database, these two categories do not differ essentially. The important difference is that the mineeld database does not contain anti-personnel fragmentation mine PMR-1 and anti-personnel mine PMM-1140 and their modications, which have been recorded in the military mineeld clearance database. Other sources of information141 register an anti-personnel mine called Gorazdanka, produced during the war and used by the Army of Bosnia and Herzegovina. According to professional references, anti-tank mines TIP 72 (of Chinese production) and TMD-B (of Soviet production), of which there are no records in the database of the Bosnia and Herzegovina Mine Action Centre, were used during the war in the former Yugoslavia. It can be concluded that 13 types of anti-personnel and 9 types of anti-tank mines were used in Bosnia and Herzegovina from 1992 to 1996.142 That is the basic classication, which does not include modications of these mine types and does not distinguish between war and pre-war production, since that has no signicant inuence upon the mine problem and protection from mines. Analysis of the number of mineelds and mines registered in the mineeld database The database of the Mine Action Centre of Bosnia and Herzegovina contains 18,315 records about mineelds, of which there are 14,383 or 78.53% with types and numbers of mines registered, and 3,932 or 21.47% without type and numbers of mines registered. Anti-personnel mines can be found in 13,180 or 71.96% of mineelds, and antitank mines in 2,866 or 15.65% of mineelds. A total of 1,663 or 9.08% are mixed mineelds. These records contain the total of 308,699 registered mines, out of which there are 257,853 or 83.53% of anti-personnel, and 50,846 or 16.47% of anti-tank mines.143 The portion of certain types of mines in the database is different. Anti-personnel fragmentation mine PMR-2A(S) accounts for almost one third of all registered mines. It is followed by anti-personnel pressure mines PMA-3 (15.98%), PMA-2 (11.99 %) and PMA-1A (6.65 %).
140

The reference does not contain information about anti-personnel mine PMM-1. The Ordata II Version 1.0 database, issued by the US Department of Defense, refers to PMM-1 mine of Cuban production, without stating its characteristics. Database of demining operations of the Bosnia and Herzegovina Mine Action Centre, US Mine Handbook and Janes Mine and Mine Clearance 1996-97. See Table 1: Types and characteristics of mines in the mineelds of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Detailed information can be found in the Appendices, Table 19: Analysis of the number of mines and mineelds according to the mineeld database.

141 142 143

65

DARVIN LISICA

The largest portion among anti-tank mines is taken up by anti-tank shaped charge mine TMRP-6 with 4.26% of all registered mines, followed by anti-tank anti-magnetic mine TMA-3 (2.74 %) and anti-tank metal mine TMM-1 (2.58%).144 The records about mines and mineelds were entered just after the war, in the time when no mechanisms existed for controlling the quality of data entry. It is important, from the standpoint of the mine situation assessment, to dene the quality of the existing data on mines and mineelds. The answer to this question was obtained through data entry error analysis on a selected simple random sample. The error was dened by way of comparing electronic records in the database with the mineeld records from the operational records of the Mine Action Centre of Bosnia and Herzegovina.145 Data entry error analysis was performed for three pieces of data: time of emplacement, who (which warring party) emplaced a mineeld and number of mines in a mineeld by type.146 Percentage of error in entering the number of mines in a mineeld for all types of anti-tank mines is not signicant and stands under 1%. The error in entering the number of anti-tank anti-magnetic mines TMA-4 stands above this percentage (1.17%), as well as the error in entering the number of anti-tank shaped charge mines TMRP-6 (1.04%). In case of anti-personnel mines, percentage of error in entering the number of mines is ve times greater than in case of antitank mines (3.19%). Error percentage is highest when it comes to anti-personnel fragmentation mine PMR-2AS and stands at 6.36%. Percentage of error in entering the number of mines stands above 3% in case of anti-personnel pressure mine PMA3 (4.03%). In case of the category of other mines it stands at 4.03%, and in case of unidentied mines at 3.25%. A more detailed analysis from individual mineeld records shows that the entry error in case of anti-personnel fragmentation mine PMR-2AS is related to the category of other and unidentied mines. This mine is rarely misidentied or mistaken for antipersonnel bounding fragmentation mine PROM-1P and anti-personnel fragmentation mine PMR-3. The nature of error in case of anti-personnel pressure mine PMA-3 is slightly different. This mine used to be most often mistaken for anti-personnel pressure mine PMA-2 or anti-personnel fragmentation mine PMR-3. The error was caused by permutation of a letter during typing or reading from a mineeld record, and it was not an error in mine identication. An error in entering the number and type of mines will not have a signicant impact upon other conclusions on the nature of mines. Yet these errors will be taken into account when conducting the analysis of mineeld characteristics, especially when it comes to anti-personnel mine PMR-2AS, whose proportion in the mineelds of
144 145

Graph 2: Mine portion in the mineelds database by type shows data on all mines registered in the mineeld database. Random sample size for: N=18,315 records on mineelds in the database, level of reliability 95 %, interval of reliability +/- 3.5 % amounts to n=752. This number was rounded up to 770 and mineelds were randomly selected. Results are presented in Table 2: Data entry error analysis based on a simple random sample.

146

66

IMPACT OF LEFTOVER MINES AND ERW ON POST-CONFLICT COUNTRIES

35%

32.74%

MINE PORTION IN THE MINEFIELD DATABASE BY TYPE

30% ANTI-PERSONNEL MINES ANTI-TANK MINES 20% 15.98% 15% 11.99% 10% 6.65% 5% 1.06% 0%
OTHER AP MINES UNKNOWN AP MINES PROM-1P PMA-1A MRUD TMA-1A PMR-2AS TMA-2A UNKNOWN AT MINES
AT MINES TOTAL

25%

4.34% 2.91%

4.94% 2.93% 2.58% 0.37% 0.17%

TMM-1 TMA-3 TMA-4

4.26% 2.74% 2.33% 0.68%

TMRP-6 TMA-5

1.21%
OTHER AT MINES
UNKNOWN AT MINES AP MINES

2.13%

PMA-2

PMA-3

ANTI-PERSONNEL MINES

PMR-3

ANTI-TANK MINES

Source : B&H Mine Action Centre Database

Graph 2: Mine portion in the mineeld database by type

DATA ENTRY ERROR ANALYSIS BASED ON A SIMPLE RANDOM SAMPLE

Population size N=18.315 records on minefield contained in the database. Random simple size for the confidence level reaching 95 % and interval +/- 3,5 % amounts to n=752, rounded up at n=770

DATA ENTRY ERROR FOR ANTI-PERSONNEL MINES

WHO LAID

DATA ENTRY ERROR FOR ANTI-TANK MINES

AVERAGE DATA ENTRY ERROR BY MINE TYPES

TIME OF LAYING

OTHER AT MINES

OTHER AP MINES

UNKNOWN AP MINES

PMR-2AS

PROM-1P

TMA-1A

TMA-2A

PMA-1A

TMRP-6

TMM-1

TMA-3

TMA-4

TMA-5

PMA-2

PMA-3

MRUD

PMR-3

DATA ENTRY ERRORS INCLUDING ENTRIES WITHOUT MINEFIELD RECORDS

NUMBER OF ERRORS

255

262

19

33

41

63

22

27

19

33

33

11

12

32

19

33,12%

34,03%

2,47%

4,29%

5,32%

8,18%

2,86%

3,51%

2,47%

4,29%

4,29%

0,52%

0,13%

0,52%

1,04%

1,43%

0,26%

1,56%

1,04%

1,04%

4,18%

0,84%

2,51%

RELATIVE ERROR (%)

NUMBER OF ERRORS

252
32,73%

152
19,74%

13
1,69%

22
2,86%

31
4,03%

49
6,36%

19
2,47%

19
2,47%

12
1,56%

31
4,03%

25
3,25%

3
0,39%

1
0,13%

4
0,52%

6
0,78%

9
1,17%

2
0,26%

8
1,04%

3
0,39%

7
0,91%

25
3,19%

5
0,62%

15
1,90%

DATA ENTRY ERRORS FROM MINEFIELDS RECORDS ONLY

RELATIVE ERROR (%)

NUMBER OF ERROR FOR MORE MINES ENTERED

12

10

24

16

11

13

11

12

NUMBER OF ERRORS FOR LESS MINES ENTERED

10

21

25

18

14

13

Table 2: Data entry error analysis based on a simple random sample

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DARVIN LISICA

SEASONAL VARIATIONS IN LAYING MINEFIELDS IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA IN THE PERIOD NUMBER OF NUMBER OF JANUARY 1992 - DECEMBER 1995 MINEFIELDS MINEFIELDS

250

16 15 14

200

13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5
MONTHLY AVERAGE OF EMPLACED MINEFIELDS MONTHLY AVERAGE OF EMPLECED MINEFIELDS FROM RANDOM SAMPLE

150

100

4 3 2 1 0

50

0
January February March April May June July August September October November December Source: Minefields Database of B&H Mine Action Centre

Graph 3: Seasonal variations in laying mineelds in Bosnia and Herzegovina in the period January 1992 December 1995
DYNAMICS IN LAYING MINEFIELDS IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINAIN THE PERIOD JANUARY 1992 DECEMBER 1995

NUMBER OF MINEFIELDS
600

500

400

300

200

100 MONTHS 0

68

01/92 02/92 03/92 04/92 05/92 06/92 07/92 08/92 09/92 10/92 11/92 12/92 01/93 02/93 03/93 04/93 05/93 06/93 07/93 08/93 09/93 10/93 11/93 12/93 01/94 02/94 03/94 04/94 05/94 06/94 07/94 08/94 09/94 10/94 11/94 12/94 01/95 02/95 03/95 04/95 05/95 06/95 07/95 08/95 09/95 10/95 11/95 12/95
Source: Minefields Database of the B&H Mine Action Centre

Graph 4: Dynamics in laying mineelds in Bosnia and Herzegovina in the period

IMPACT OF LEFTOVER MINES AND ERW ON POST-CONFLICT COUNTRIES

January 1992 December 1995

Bosnia and Herzegovina is greatest. Entry errors relating to the time of emplacement and the warring party that emplaced a mineeld will be analysed together with mineeld characteristics. Mineeld characteristics The study of mineeld characteristics has a multiple importance for mine action operations. Information about the mode of mineeld emplacement, their shape, size, number of mines and time of emplacement is necessary in the process of mine situation assessment, planning and implementation of mine actions. In this case, only some mineeld characteristics will be analysed: the time of emplacement, who placed the mines, types of mines in a mineeld, their number and mineeld size. The error in entering the time of mineeld emplacement is dened using a selected simple random sample. The data about the month and year of mineeld emplacement, entered into the database of the Mine Action Centre, and the same data taken from the original mineeld records, were used for the analysis. The error obtained stands at 32.73%.147 Is the error pertaining to the time of mineeld emplacement that great or is there something else involved? According to the analysis, there are no records in the database concerning the time of mineeld emplacement in 61.58% of cases. The selected random sample from the analysed mineeld records also lacks the time of mineeld emplacement in 34.68% of cases. In case of the remaining mineelds, for which there are data on the time of emplacement, the error is not signicant. By comparing seasonal variations in case of all mineelds from the group of those for which the data on emplacement time exists, with those found in the sample from the mineeld records, the same conclusion can be reached about the entry error for both the mineelds from the database and those from the mineeld records. The curves showing seasonal variations during the emplacement of the mineelds contained in the database and in the sample from the mineeld records are similar.148 The sample curve shows greater oscillations than the database curve due to a smaller number of calculation units. Seasonal variations in the emplacement of mineelds show dependence on the seasons. Laying of mineelds was most intensive in the period between May and October, reaching its maximum during those two months. The analysis of the dynamics of laying mineelds during the entire war in Bosnia and Herzegovina shows that the intensity of mine warfare increased from the beginning of the conict towards its end. The largest number of mineelds was laid in the summer and autumn of 1995, on the eve of the Dayton Peace Agreement.149
147 148 149

See Table 2: Data entry error analysis based on a simple random sample.

See Graph 3: Seasonal variations in laying mineelds in Bosnia and Herzegovina in the period January 1992 December 1995. See Graph 4: Dynamics in laying mineelds in Bosnia and Herzegovina in the period January 1992 December 1995.

69

DARVIN LISICA

100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

COMPARASION OF DATA FROM THE MINEFIELD DATABASE AND THE RANDOMLY SELECTED SAMPLE FROM MINEFIELD RECORDS RELATING TO THE NUMBER OF MINES LAID ACCORDING TO MILITARY ORGANIZATION

12.76% 34.68% 26.15% 7.92%

3.73% 18.16%

11.38% 15.88%

56.79% 43.64% 32.99%

39.67%

17.45%
MINES

24.42%

33.07% 21.32%

MINEFIELDS

MINES DATABASE

MINEFIELDS

MINEFIELD RECORD SAMPLE ARBIH HVO VRS UNKNOWN

Source: Minefields Database of the B&H Mine Action Centre

Graph 5: Comparison of data from the mineeld database and the selected mineeld records relating to the number of mines laid according to military organization.

DISTRIBUTION OF MINEFIELDS IN B&H BY NUMBER OF MINES 501 TO 2000 MINES 0.15% 51 TO 500 MINES 7.55% 31 TO 50 MINES 8.46%

1 MINE 3,18% 2 TO 5 MINES 24.40%

11 TO 30 MINES 32.33%

6 TO 10 MINES 23.93%
Source: Minefield Database of the B&H Mine Action Centre

Graph 6: Distribution of mineelds in Bosnia and Herzegovina by number of

mines 70

IMPACT OF LEFTOVER MINES AND ERW ON POST-CONFLICT COUNTRIES

The data about the armed units that laid mineelds were obtained from the mineeld database and mineeld records. The entry error pertaining to forces that laid mineelds was calculated using a selected simple random sample of mineelds. A comparison of the same data from the mineeld records and from the Mine Action Centre database shows an error percentage of 19.74%, not accounting for mineelds where records do not exist.150 It is also important to analyse the quality of data on the number of mineelds laid and mines that they contain. There is discrepancy in the number of mines emplaced by armed units between the database and mineeld records. The discrepancy is greatest in the number of mineelds for which there is no information as to who laid them. That is also the most frequent error committed during the data entry. In spite of a signicant entry error, two conclusions can be deduced from the analysis. First, that the Army of Republika Srpska laid the largest number of mineelds and mines, and second, that the mineelds laid by the Army of Republika Srpska and the HVO (Croatian Defence Council) show higher mine density than the mineelds laid by the Army of Bosnia and Herzegovina.151

AVERAGE NUMBER OF MINES IN A BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA MINEFIELD, BY MINE TYPE PMA-1A A N T I T A N K M I N E S UNKNOWN AT MINES OTHER AT MINES
35 30 25 20 15 10

PMA-2 PMA-3

TMRP-6

PMR-2AS

TMA-5

5 0

PMR-3

A N T I P E R S O N N E L M I N E S

TMA-4

PROM-1P

TMA-3

MRUD

TMA-2A TMA-1A
AVERAGE NUMBER OF MINES IN A MINEFIELD

OTHER AP MINES UNKNOWN AP MINES TMM-1

Source: Minefield Database of the B&H Mine Action Centre

Graph 7: Average number of mines in a Bosnia and Herzegovina mineeld, by mine type
150 151

See Table 2: Data entry error analysis based on a simple random sample.

See Graph 5: Comparison of data from the mineeld database and the selected mineeld records sample, relating to the number of mines laid, by armed units.

71

DARVIN LISICA

Statistical analysis of middle values of the number of mines in the mineelds is an important element for the assessment of the total number of mineelds emplaced in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The average mineeld contains 19.24 mines (arithmetic mean). Mineelds containing 4 mines are most frequent, which is the value of the mode as the positional measure of the central tendency in a statistical analysis. The central value is 14 mines in a mineeld, which presents the median as the measure of the control tendency, which divides the distribution of mineelds, arranged by size, into two parts. More than a half of all mineelds contain less than 10 mines, and one third contain between 11 and 30 mines.152 Anti-personnel fragmentation mines of the type PMR-2AS are most numerous and can be found in 57.42% of all mineelds, i.e. 62.66% of mineelds containing antipersonnel mines. Anti-tank shaped charge mine TMRP-6 occurs most frequently among anti-tank mines. It can be found in 7.40% of all mineelds, i.e. in 37.16% of mineelds containing anti-tank mines.153 The mine with the highest mine density among anti-personnel mines is the antipersonnel anti-magnetic mine PMA-1A, with an average of 25.22 mines per mineeld. The mine with the highest mine density among anti-tank mines is anti-tank antimagnetic mine TMA-1A, with 18.08 mines per mineeld.154 What does the identication card of a mineeld laid in Bosnia and Herzegovina look like? When discussing the classes and types of mines, it can be concluded that the mines produced by former Yugoslavia are predominant, with a smaller portion of war production and a negligible portion of foreign mines. Composition of mineelds, level of correlation between the types of mines that occur together in the mineelds, assessment of unidentied and other mines in the mineelds and characteristics of mixed mineelds were analysed using correlation matrices.155 The following ndings and conclusions can be deduced from the analysis of correlation matrices:
152 153 154 155

See Graph 6: Distribution of mineelds in Bosnia and Herzegovina by number of mines.

See Appendices, Table 19: Analysis of the number of mines and mineelds according to the mineeld database. See Graph 7: Average number of mines in a Bosnia and Herzegovina mineeld, by mine type. See correlation matrices tables 20, 21 and 22 in the Appendices. The correlation matrices were set up by means of Pearsons Correlation Coefcient. The scale according to Guilford was used to determine the level of correlation. The correlation scale according to Guilford was taken over from Mui V.: Metodologija pedagokog istraivanja (The Methodology of Pedagogical Research), Svjetlost, Sarajevo, 1982. It is described as follows: Less than 0.20 slight correlation, almost negligible relationship between variables 0.20 0.40 low correlation, relationship between variables is small 0.40 0.70 moderate correlation, substantial relationship between variables 0.70 0.90 high correlation, marked relationship between variables 0.90 1.00 very high correlation, very dependable relationship between variables.

72

IMPACT OF LEFTOVER MINES AND ERW ON POST-CONFLICT COUNTRIES

1. Mineelds containing anti-personnel mines: 1.1. Anti-personnel mines PMA-1A, PMA-2 and PMA-3, on one hand, and the categories of other and unidentied anti-personnel mines, on the other, occur together in the mineelds. There is high correlation in the number of mines and frequency of occurring together. 1.2. The frequency of the category of other and unidentied anti-personnel mines shows substantial correlation with anti-personnel mines PMR-2AS and PROM-1P within the same mineelds. 1.3. Antipersonnel bounding fragmentation mine PROM-1P was laid in the mineelds together with anti-personnel pressure mines PMA-1A, PMA-2 and PMA-3. There is substantial correlation between them. This level of correlation is also typical of the joint occurrence of anti-personnel mines PMA-2 and PMA-3. The analysis of correlation matrices shows that anti-personnel pressure mines PMA1A, PMA-2 and PMA-3, or their modications from the war production, account for the largest number of other and unidentied mines. These types of mines, employed in the security role, are found with anti-personnel bounding fragmentation mines PROM-1A. Substantial correlation of other and unidentied mines with anti-personnel fragmentation mine PMR-2AS most probably relates to anti-personnel fragmentation mine PMR-1, which has been recorded in military mine clearance, but does not exist in the mineeld database as a special category. 2. Mineelds containing anti-tank mines: 2.1. Anti-tank anti-magnetic mine TMA-5 and the category of unidentied mines do not occur together in the mineelds. There is very high negative correlation between these two categories of anti-tank mines in the correlation matrix. 2.2. There is high negative correlation between anti-tank shaped charge mine TMRP-6 and the category of unidentied mines. In places where the number of the one type increases in the mineelds the number of the other decreases. The frequency of their joint occurrence in the mineelds is low. 2.3. Anti-tank metal mine TMM-1 shows very high correlation with anti-tank anti-magnetic mine TMA-1A, and high or substantial correlation with all other mines. This means that it occurs in combination with other mines, and the number of mines in the mineelds increases and decreases in the same way as the number of supporting mines. Anti-tank anti-magnetic mine TMA-1A shows similar correlation with other mines, except that it rarely occurs together with anti-tank shaped charge mine TMRP-6. 73

DARVIN LISICA

2.4. There is substantial correlation between anti-tank anti-magnetic mine TMA5 and anti-tank anti-magnetic mines TMA-2A and TMA-4. 2.5. There is zero correlation between the mines TMA-1A, TMA-2A and TMA-4, on one hand, and the category of unidentied mines, on the other. This means that there is no regularity in joint occurrence of these mine categories in antitank mineelds. It can be deduced from the analysis of the correlation matrix for anti-tank mines that anti-tank metal mine TMM-1 is found with all other anti-tank mines. This conclusion can be supported by the data according to which these mines can be found in 21.77% of all mineelds containing anti-tank mines. A similar conclusion can be offered for anti-tank anti-magnetic mine TMA-1A, given that this mine is by far less present in the mineelds. Mutual correlation of other mines in the mineelds is higher than it is the case with anti-personnel mines, with the exception of TMRP-6. No reliable conclusion can be made on the basis of the correlation matrices about what unidentied and other mines relate to. Military mine clearance indicates that the category of other mines mostly relates to anti-tank anti-magnetic mine TMM-1 and anti-tank anti-magnetic mine TMA-1A. The analysis shows that the category of unidentied mines most probably relates to anti-tank shaped charge mine TMPR-6. 3. Mixed mineelds: With the exception of anti-tank anti-magnetic mine TMA-4, all other categories of anti-tank mines show very high or high correlation with other mines in mixed mineelds. It can be deduced from the previous analyses and correlation matrix of a mixed mineeld, which anti-personnel mines occur together with a certain type of anti-tank mines in the largest number of cases: 3.1. Anti-personnel pressure mines PMA.1A, PMA-2 and PMA-3 go along with anti-tank magnetic mine TMM and anti-tank anti-magnetic mines TMA-2A and TMA-4; 3.2. Anti-personnel fragmentation mine PMR-3, anti-personnel fragmentation directional mine MRUD, and less frequently anti-personnel pressure mine PMA-1A are associated with anti-tank anti-magnetic mine TMA-1A; 3.3. Anti-personnel pressure mine PMA-1A is found with anti-tank anti-magnetic mine TMA-3; 3.4. Anti-personnel pressure mines PMA-1 and PMA-2, as well as anti-personnel fragmentation directional mine MRUD go along with anti-tank anti-magnetic mine TMA-5; 3.5. Anti-personnel fragmentation directional mine MRUD and less frequently anti-personnel pressure mines PMA-2 and PMA-3 are associated with antitank anti-magnetic mine TMRP-6. 74

IMPACT OF LEFTOVER MINES AND ERW ON POST-CONFLICT COUNTRIES

4.1.3. Military mine lifting in Bosnia and Herzegovina, 1997-1998 The General Framework Agreement for Peace in Bosnia and Herzegovina governs the issue of leftover mines and unexploded ordnance. According to Annex 1A, Agreement on the Military Aspects of the Peace Settlement, Article 4, Paragraph 2(d) and Article 5, Clauses 2 and 3, the Parties shall within 30 days after the transfer of authority: remove, dismantle or destroy all mines, unexploded ordnance, explosive devices, from the zone of separation, mark all known mine emplacements, unexploded ordnance, explosive devices and demolitions within Bosnia and Herzegovina as required by the IFOR Commander, and within 120 days submit to the Joint Military Commission all data about mineelds. Military mine clearance started in January 1997 and was completed in September 1998. Military mine lifting differs from humanitarian demining. It is carried out on the basis of a mineeld record, without treating the entire area, while humanitarian demining implies the application of various methods of searching or disturbing the entire area identied as a source of mine hazard. The quality of work carried out by the military engineer units engaged in this task was controlled by the representatives of the international stabilisation forces, who veried the authenticity of the military mine clearance records. Mines were removed from 1,454 mineelds, in which 22,018 mines were detected, out of which there were 17,577 anti-personnel and 4,441 antitank mines. It was clear from the very start that military mine clearance would not produce the desired results. Therefore the UN Mine Action Centre was established in Bosnia and Herzegovina in 1996, which started the preparation and introduction of humanitarian demining operations in their emergency response phase. By the time of the transfer of authority from the UN to the local structures that took place in 1998, the concept of military mine lifting was completely abandoned, and the armed forces started dealing with humanitarian demining under control of the civilian authorities of Bosnia and Herzegovina. What are the results of military mine lifting? A comparative analysis of mineeld records and military mine lifting records shows that there are discrepancies in number and type of mines relating to the same mineelds. The data about the number of mines from the mineeld records and the number of cleared mines match in only 12.10% of cases. In 65.34% of mineelds fewer mines were removed, and in 22.56% of mineelds more mines were removed than stated in the mineeld records.156 A much greater share of mineelds with fewer removed mines is a typical phenomenon in all armed units that laid mineelds. The opposite is true in mineelds for which the laying unit is not identied. In this case a larger number of mines were removed from 68.18% of mineelds.
156

See Graph 8: Military mine clearance 1997-1998 discrepancy in comparison with the situation recorded in mineeld records.

75

DARVIN LISICA

100%

MILITARY MINE LIFTING 1997 - 1998, DISCREPANCY IN COMPARASION WITH SITUATION RECORDED IN MINEFIELD RECORDS

32
80%

950
60%

311

302

305

225

40%

20%

34 65 44 22
VRS

328 25 16
HVO

73

176
TOTAL
Source: Minefield Databes of the B&H Mine Action Centre

0% ARBiH

UNKNOWN

NUMBER OF MINEFIELDS WITH LESS MINES FOUND NUMBER OF MINEFIELDS WITH MORE MINES FOUND NUMBER OF MINEFIELDS WITH THE SAME NUMBER OF MINES AS IN THE RECORDS

Graph 8: Military mine lifting 1997-1998 discrepancy in comparison with the situation recorded in mineeld records

DISCREPANCY BBETWEEN THE NUMBER OF MINES LAID, ACCORDING TO MINEFIELD RECORDS, AND THE NUMBER OF MINES DETECTED DURING MILITARY MINE LIFTING 1997 -1998 10,000 NUMBER OF MINES

7685
7,500 5,000 2,500

8388

4,134 2,111 554 1111

VRS

3638 2210 927

3735 3577 -509 -570

0 ARBiH -2,500 -5,000 -7,500 -10,000

170

HVO

UNKNOWN

-4262

-4663 -5,420

-7,842
NUMBER OF CLEARED MINES LESS MINES FOUND THAN ENTERED IN THE RECORDS MORE MINES FOUND THAN ENTERED IN THE RECORDS MORE MINES FOUND THAN ENTERED IN THE RECORDS - COMPARASION BY MINE TYPES LESS MINES FOUND THAN ENTERED IN THE RECORDS - COMPARASION BY MINE TYPES

-12114
-12,500 -15,000

-13,114
Source: Minefield Database of the B&H Mine Action Centre

Graph 9: Discrepancy between the number of mines laid, according to mineeld records, and the number of mines detected during military mine lifting 1997-1998

76

IMPACT OF LEFTOVER MINES AND ERW ON POST-CONFLICT COUNTRIES

Out of 38,154 mines registered in the mineeld records, armed units removed 57.71% of mines. In all military clearance shortage of mines is by far greater than excess, especially in the mineelds laid by the Army of Republic of Srpska (VRS). This discrepancy is even greater if a statistical analysis by type of mines is conducted.157 That increase is caused by a different identication of mines during military mine lifting operations in relation to that recorded during the laying process. This form of discrepancy is greatest in case of the mineelds laid by the Army of Bosnia and Herzegovina (ARBiH). Why is there such great discrepancy in the number of mines between these two sources of information? Analysis indicates four basic reasons for the discrepancy in the number of mines laid and those removed by armed units: (1) mineelds were relocated or partly removed during the war, which was not updated in the records; (2) mines were misidentied during mine lifting; (3) not all removed mines were reported, or (4) not all mines were detected and removed. According to experience, a typical feature of the mineelds in Bosnia and Herzegovina is a relatively small number of mines, and very often groups of mines or individually laid mines, usually with a random sample. The analysis of mineeld records and the mineeld database conrms this experience. Several elements complicated the analysis of information about mineelds: 1) The exact number of mineelds in Bosnia and Herzegovina and mines that they contain is not known. The number of 18,315 mineelds from the database is not nal. The international stabilisation forces made assessments according to which 50-60% of all mineelds had been registered. 2) The quality of data entry complicates the mine analysis. Comparative analysis of mineeld records based on a selected random sample of mineelds and their records in the database found errors, some of which are unacceptable. It is evident that the quality control of data entry was not well organised. 3) Military mine lifting did not signicantly reduce mine risk. Incomplete data points to leftover mines, and results of humanitarian demining in those locations show that there are mines left over after military lifting. All locations on which military clearance was conducted will, unfortunately, have to be treated again by humanitarian demining operations. 4) The quality of mineeld records is not a sufcient basis for preparing humanitarian demining projects. In a larger number of cases, the exact mineeld location, as well as its shape and distribution of mines on the ground cannot be determined.
157

See Graph 9: Discrepancy between the number of mines laid, according to mineeld records, and the number of mines detected during military clearance 1997-1998.

77

DARVIN LISICA

Despite these shortcomings, the data about mineelds, contained in the database of the Mine Action Centre in Bosnia and Herzegovina, are used as a starting point for the preparation of the activities on the ground. These data are additionally veried and updated on the ground, and necessary measurements are performed in order to identify mine suspected locations as precisely as possible and conduct an assessment of their danger.

4.1.4. Socio-economic impact of mines and UXO in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Methodology of land mine and UXO impact survey An assessment project called Landmine Impact Survey was conducted in Bosnia and Herzegovina from October 2002 to December 2003158. This independent survey of global character is conducted in mine-affected countries by the Survey Action Centre159. The survey in Bosnia and Herzegovina was carried out by the French nongovernment organization Handicap International, with support of the Mine Action Centre of Bosnia and Herzegovina. The results of survey were published early in 2004, after being certied by the UN Certication Committee. The LIS examines community perceptions of impact and risk160 and is more concerned with the socioeconomic impact of mines than with the identication of a mine hazard as such. The staff conducting the mine impact survey was better trained for conducting surveys in the affected communities, than for identifying and recording suspected areas. The main instrument for the collection of data was a questionnaire consisting of four modules (affected community module, suspected area module, recent mine casualties module and total mine casualties module). The questionnaire consisted of 178 questions, divided into 18 segments and 4 modules. The survey was conducted
158

Results were published in a document called Landmine Impact Survey - Bosnia and Herzegovina, Final Report, Survey Action Centre, Washington, Certied by the United Nations Certication Committe, 2004, page 198.

159

Survey Action Centre is an international, non-prot and independent organisation, with headquarters in the USA, which has a task to coordinate Landmine Impact Surveys. Following the signing of the Ottawa Convention, the leading non-government international organisations established a Survey Working Group, tasked to dene and quantify, as clearly as possible, the impact of the worldwide landmine problem. Late in 2001, this Associoation along with with the United Nation Mine Action Service and Geneva International Centre for Humanitarian Demining established the Survey Action Centre. Thus far the Centre conducted Landmine Impact Surveys in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Cambodia, Chad, Kosovo, Lebanon, Mozambique, Somalia, Thailand and Yemen, while the surveys in Afghanistan, Angola, Vietnam, Eritrea and Ethiopia are near completion; more information at www. sac-na.org. 160 Bosnia and Herzegovina Landmine Impact Survey, 2004, Executive Summary, page 10.

78

IMPACT OF LEFTOVER MINES AND ERW ON POST-CONFLICT COUNTRIES

in three stages: (1) collecting expert opinions, (2) conducting survey of communities, and (3) assessment and planning. The quality assurance monitoring was done by the staff of the UN Mine Action Service from New York. The main territorial unit of measure in which the LIS was conducted is a community impacted by landmines. It differs from one country to another according to administrative arrangements, the size of territory and number of population. The number of population is the most important criterion. This number varies from 1,000 (Bosnia and Herzegovina) to 1,750 (Afghanistan) inhabitants per community. The category dened as an impacted community in Bosnia and Herzegovina is a populated place. A populated place is a statistical category, consisting of one or more smaller settlements of up to 500 households, with territorial borders. In our case it is a census framework within which the last census of 1991 was done, including all populated places on 1:200,000 map, which makes them even more convenient for statistical and other analyses. There are totally 6,146 of those populated places communities in Bosnia and Herzegovina. On the basis of the expert opinions provided, 2,939 communities were identied to have had indications of being contaminated with mines and UXO. The remaining 3,207 communities, for which there are no indications of being contaminated with mines and UXO, were checked by using the method of false negatives sampling. A total of 308 communities were surveyed. True negatives were found in 294 communities. Six communities were deserted or duplicate data were found. Eight communities were veried as suspected areas, i.e. having false negatives. All suspected communities were checked and 1,358 were found among them as being truly threatened by mines. Along with those 6, which were identied by the sampling operation, it makes 1,366 of the impacted communities. A full survey was conducted in all of these communities. The affected communities can be scored and categorized by 11 identied variables, among which there are 10 standard variables laid down by the international protocol: (1) mine presence, (2) UXO presence, blocked access (3) crops, (4) pastures, (5) water springs, (6) non-agricultural land, (7) housing, (8) roads, (9) other infrastructure, and the last one, (10) number of casualties in the last 24 months. Any country may add four more variables of its own. In the case of Bosnia and Herzegovina, one additional variable has been identied: return of people. All affected communities have been scored and classied into three main categories according to the gravity of the mine problem: high impacted, medium impacted and low impacted communities. Results of the Landmine Impact Survey in Bosnia and Herzegovina The Landmine Impact Survey of Bosnia and Herzegovina identied 1,366 landmine and/or UXO-impacted communities in 128 municipalities161. Of the total number, 154 or 11 % were categorized as high impact, 696 or 51 % as medium impact, and 516 or 38 % as low impact.162 An estimated 1,375,807 people live in mine and UXO affected communities, of these an estimated 100,187 people are believed to live in
161 162

Same, page 19. Same, pages 7 and 10.

79

DARVIN LISICA

high-impacted communities, 594,143 in medium-impacted communities and 681,477 people in low-impacted communities.163 The LIS identied 2,134 suspected hazard areas, with a total surface area of 1037.6 km2, which differs from the identication of suspected area made by the Mine Action Centre. The report states this difference, with a clear reservation that the LIS could not have identied all suspected areas.164 The results show that rural communities make up 88% of the impacted communities. Those living in urban communities are less affected than the rural population whose livelihood is dependent on the access to blocked resources.165 Two thirds of the communities, mostly rural, reported the return of returnees.166 Almost 50% of the impacted communities are oriented toward agriculture and exploitation of natural resources, in almost 40% of the communities the infrastructure facilities and resources necessary for sustainable life are blocked. Reconstruction of houses, access to drinking water and mined roads are the most frequent causes of accidents.167 The main weakness of the LIS is poorly measurable data on the hazard as a source of risk. The drawings made by the eld teams of Handicap International are of poor quality, and it is very difcult to put them in the database and on the map, and even to identify them in the eld. This level of precision concerning the mine suspected areas is probably helpful in immediate post-conict countries, which are at an early stage of humanitarian demining and have no information on mine contamination. The data from systematic surveys in Bosnia and Herzegovina is more accurate and is used as the information base line. A pilot project called Planning and Task Assessment, organised under the auspices of the Survey Action Centre and Mine Action Centre of B&H, ran simultaneously with the LIS. It was observed that results of the LIS were not sufciently used and adapted to the operational planning at the level of the affected community. The pilot project was set to ascertain how to make assessment and planning of operational activities in a mine-affected community with the aim of reducing risk to an acceptable level. The project was implemented in eight highly impacted communities for which integrated mine action plans were made, and it was completed in December of 2003. Since that time a new mine action approach has begun to develop, based on the approach of integrated planning in the implementation of mine action operations.168
163 164 165 166 167 168

Same, page 10. Same, page 10. Same, page 21. Same, page 22, Table 5. Same, pages 35-37.

I led this pilot project on behalf of the Mine Action Centre. More details in: Bosnia and Herzegovina Landmine Impact Survey. Annex VII BHMAC Task Assessment and Planning Final Report by Darvin Lisica, 2004, pages 191-198.

80

IMPACT OF LEFTOVER MINES AND ERW ON POST-CONFLICT COUNTRIES

Two main principles - integrated mine action planning and mine-affected community in the focus of activities - laid down by the UN Mine Action Strategy, are realised in practice in that way. The Mine Action Strategy of Bosnia and Herzegovina accepted these two principles and put them together into the following principle: integrated mine action planning at the level of the affected community. The database and records from landmine impact surveys were handed over to the Mine Action Centre. They represent a valuable source of information on risk and its socioeconomic impact. A general picture on the impact of mines in Bosnia and Herzegovina has thus been created and it may be compared with the situation in other countries. In view of the number of mine-affected communities and the mineimpact level, Bosnia and Herzegovina has been categorized among the most highly -impacted countries in the world.

4.1.5. Analysis of mine and UXO casualties in Bosnia and Herzegovina

From the beginning of war until May 2005, there were 4878 mine and UXO casualties in Bosnia and Herzegovina. In the period from 1996 to May 2005169 there were 1532 mine casualties, of that number 28.33% or 434 were fatalities. The monthly average of the number of casualties has been constantly decreasing. From 52.67 casualties per month in 1996, the number in the rst ve months of 2005 decreased to an average of 2 casualties per month.170 Looking into the average seasonal variations in the period from 1996 to May 2005, one may conclude that the majority of accidents happen in early spring, in March an average of 26.10 casualties in a month, and in April an average of 21.30 casualties in a month, after which monthly average rates have generally begun to decrease. The records of accidents from the recent past offer a more realistic picture for assessing the level of affectedness. With the seasonally analysed results for the period of 2000 and on, the picture becomes somewhat different.171 There are no more extreme values concerning the number of casualties per months. Most of the accidents are still recorded in March, with a tendency for the number of casualties to grow in July and October. These gures are signicant indicators for planning the activities, such as mine awareness and urgent and permanent marking, which reduce the risk to population temporarily or permanently.
169 170 171

ICRCs statistics on mine and UXO casualties to May 2005 inclusive, dated 1 July 2005. See Graph 10: Average number of mine casualties in B&H per month

See Graph 11: Seasonal variations in the number of mine casualties from January 2000 to July 2005 and Graph 12: Seasonal variations in the number of mine casualties in BiH from 1996 to 2005.

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DARVIN LISICA

60

CASULTIES

52.67 50

MINE CASULTIES MONTHLY AVERAGE BY YEARS

40

AVERAGE 1 standard deviation + 1 standard deviation TREND

30 24.17 20 12.42 10 7.92 8.33 7.25 6.00

y = 54,697x-1,2523 R2 = 0,954

4.50 3.58 1.58 2005

0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Source: Data on casulties of the International Committe of Red Cross

Graph 10: Monthly average of mine casualties in B&H

16 14 12 10 8

CASULTIES

SEASONAL VARIATION 2000 - 2005 GEOMETRIC MEAN AVERAGE 1 standard deviation + 1 standard deviation 9.83

7.00 8.25 5.83 6.00 5.33 5.00 4.86 4.97 6.00 6.06 7.63 4.17 4.04 1.83 1.64

6 4 2 0
January

4.50 3.00 3.13 4.79 4.68 4.75

4.00 3.78

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September October November December

Source: Data on casulties of the International Committe of Red Cross

Graph 11: Seasonal variations in the number of mine casualties in B&H from 2000 to 2005

82

IMPACT OF LEFTOVER MINES AND ERW ON POST-CONFLICT COUNTRIES

60

CASULTIES

SEASONAL VARIATIONS 1996 - 2005 GEOMETRIC MEAN AVERAGE 1 standard deviation + 1 standard deviation -

50

40

30

26.10 21.30

20

12.50 9.60
10

14.60 14.96 10.07 8.64

13.20

13.80

12.30 8.00

11.10 9.99 6.09 6.50 5.14

October

7.26
0
January

7.89

8.30

8.93

8.90

5.10 3.40

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

November December

Source: Data on casulties of the International Committe of Red Cross

Graph 12: Seasonal variations in the number of casualties in B&H from 1996 to 2005

100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
UNKNOWN ELDERLY (OVER 60) ADULTS (40-60) ADULTS (19-39) CHILDREN (0-18) 1996 29 40 158 254 151

NUMBER AND AGE STRUCTURE OF CASULTIES PER YEAR

1997 13 20 84 118 55

1998 10 17 44 56 22

1999 2 10 25 39 19

2000 0 7 24 40 29

2001 9 7 23 36 12

2002 0 5 22 26 19

2003 0 8 14 23 9

2004 0 3 10 24 6

2005 0 1 11 5 2

Source: Data on casulties of the International Committe of Red Cross

Graph 13: Number and age structure of casualties per year

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NUMBER AND STRUCTURE OF INJURED AND KILLED 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
INJURED KILLED 1996 522 110 1997 202 88 1998 89 60 1999 57 38 2000 65 35 2001 55 32 2002 46 26 2003 31 23 2004 27 16 2005 9 10

Source: Data on casulties of the International Committe of Red Cross

Graph 14: Number and structure of injured and killed in B&H

100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

STRUCTURE OF CASULTIES IN RELATION TO MOVEMENTS DURING THE WAR

PEOPLE WHO DID NOT MOVE FROM THEIR HOMES DURING THE WAR

RETURNEES RISPLACED PERSON

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

1996

Source: Data on casulties of the International Committe of Red Cross

Graph 15: Structure of casualties in relation to movements during the war in B&H

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IMPACT OF LEFTOVER MINES AND ERW ON POST-CONFLICT COUNTRIES

The results of a research of the International Committee of Red Cross172 in Bosnia and Herzegovina (MCRC), which was conducted in 2003, show that men in 19-39 age group, who consciously go into mine areas, constitute 40 % of the casualties and they are the most highly affected group. Children younger than 18 account for 20 % of the casualties. One of the conclusions of the research is that adults suffer mine accidents that involve one victim, while children suffer accidents involving a larger number of victims. The ratio concerning the age structure of casualties has remained the same.173 The ratio between the numbers of injured and killed people in 1996 was 5:1, and it became more balanced in the following years.174 The causes of the relative increase in mortality rate are manifold. The majority of deaths in the last three years were caused by the anti-personnel bounding fragmentation mine PROM-1, which almost always results in fatalities. Contrary to the conventional wisdom that returnees and displaced persons are the most vulnerable groups, a statistical analysis shows the people who did not move away from their places of residence during the war as the most vulnerable.175 They make up 70% of the casualties and that percentage is quite stable. The number of casualties among internally displaced people continually decreases, while it, on the average, increases among returnees. In 2003, the number of casualties among returnees suddenly increased, which could be expected in view of the larger-scalereturn in Bosnia and Herzegovina during that year, with the returnees not being aware enough of mine threats. The general conclusion is that the number of casualties in Bosnia and Herzegovina keeps decreasing. If this trend continues, it could be expected that there are no casualties in 2009. The data on the past accidents, however, have to be considered with serious reservations for any calculation about the number of casualties in the future. The level of casualties in 2009 will depend on the success of implementation of the strategic goals set and the achieved level of mine risk reduction. The analysis of mine casualties does not provide enough elements for the assessment of affected groups and potential risks that may cause future casualties. For this reason the assessment of affected groups is considered as an ongoing task. The pronounced and relatively regular seasonal variations indicate the highest risk period of the year, which is the beginning of eld works in spring and autumn.176 The emphasis on the implementation of the measures of protection against mines and UXO in that period and planning and carrying out various interconnected and comprehensive measures of mine risk reduction are the key elements for further reduction in the number of mine casualties.
172 173 174 175 176

Knowledge, Attitude and Practices Suvey, International Committee of Red Cross, Sarajevo, 2003, page 1. See Graph 13: Number and age structure of casualties per year. See Graph 14: Number and structure of injured and killed in BiH See Graph 15: Structure of casualties in relation to movements during the war in BiH See Graph 12: Seasonal variations in the number of casualties in BiH from 1996 to 2005.

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4.1.6. Mine suspected areas in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Systematic survey of mine suspected areas The data on mines and mineelds in the main register and database of the BH Mine Action Centre were not sufcient for making a more objective assessment of the mine situation, and they also did not provide enough elements for more serious planning at the operational and strategic level. For the same reasons they were not reliable for measuring the results of mine action operations in risk reduction. The task was to design a procedure that would provide sufciently accurate and measurable indicators of risk reduction. Measuring the size of the mine suspected area in Bosnia and Herzegovina was a logical solution. The procedure of identifying and establishing suspected area was based on the information collected since 1996 and kept in the database and archives, and on the developed mine action structure in Bosnia and Herzegovina. That procedure is called systematic survey. According to a denition from the Standing Operating Procedures for Humanitarian Demining of the Mine Action Centre of B&H: Systematic survey is an analytical and investigational procedure used to evaluate mine suspected areas, which were zones in warring factions conicts (hereinafter: suspected area). Systematic survey is a part of general evaluation of Mine Action in Bosnia and Herzegovina, which is conducted from the level of a suspected area micro-location, up to the evaluation for the country as a whole.177 Systematic survey began in the Federation B&H and Brko District in 2001, under the auspices of the then Federation Mine Action Centre178. A systematic survey in Republic of Srpska began in 2003, following the establishment of the single Mine Action Centre of B&H, when the Standing Operating Procedures for Systematic Survey were adopted. The procedure of systematic survey consists of four main phases: (1) Planning and preparation of Systematic Survey; (2) Collecting information on suspected areas; (3) Processing information on suspected areas (sorting collected documentation, evaluation of their quality as well as recording documents per municipalities; classication of information per micro-locations by entering the information into the operational map of Systematic Survey; processing and drawing the known shape areas into the data base; reconstruction and input of confrontation lines into the data base; analysis of micro-locations in Systematic Survey) and (4) Re-assessment of Systematic Survey results. The result of Systematic Survey is the
177 178

Standing Operating Procedure for Systematic Survey, edition 2003. Standing Operating Procedures for Humanitarian Demining of the BH Mine Action Centre, page 1. I began to deal with the problem of suspected area identication in 2001. As a member of the Federation Mine Action Centre I was tasked with preparing a procedure of systematic survey, upon which the training of operational staff was based. That procedure, updated with a phase of re-assessment of the results of Systematic Survey, became the basis for 2003 Standing Operating Procedures for Systematic Survey.

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IMPACT OF LEFTOVER MINES AND ERW ON POST-CONFLICT COUNTRIES

identication of suspected areas, each of which has certain characteristics (geographic position, borders, area size, possible use and priority).

Pale - Pra a

Rogatica

GORADE MUNICIPALITY

Fo a

The total suspected area is 62.0 sqkm, which accounts for 24.2% of the area of the Municipality, including 9.8 sq km of priorities 1, or 15.8%.

Map 1: Suspected area of the Municipality of Gorade late in 2003, an example

showing the results of systematic survey, taken from the data base of the B&H Mine Action Centre

A preliminary systematic survey of the entire territory of Bosnia and Herzegovina was conducted by the end of 2003, thus completing the rst picture on the magnitude of mine contamination of the country. Data on suspected locations were entered into the database, and systematic survey became a part of regular activities. Existing databases were constantly updated and the suspected area was becoming reduced as a result of more accurate estimates. Compatibility of the results of systematic survey and LIS resulted from the process of dening borders between affected communities in the database, by way of digitalization of borders between populated places.179 In that way conditions were created for a more detailed and precise classication of suspected areas in relation to the priority categories and in relation to the classication of mine-affected communities. A comparison of the results of systematic surveys and landmine impact surveys shows that there are suspected areas outside of the LIS identied affected communities.
179

Digitalization of borders of populated places was done by the Mine Action Centre in BiH, in the period March-April 2004.

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Estimates reveal that the communities identied as affected include 70.13% of suspected area, while 29.87% of suspected area is out of them. It means that LIS did not identify all affected communities. A conclusion can be made on the basis of the maps produced that mountain and highland communities, hardly accessible, probably with a small number of population, were not identied. As there are no accident reports for those communities, they can be categorized as low-impacted communities. Size and characteristics of suspected area in Bosnia and Herzegovina Until 2001 there were approximate estimates concerning the size of suspected area. It was considered that mine suspected area in Bosnia and Herzegovina covered the area of more than 4,000 km2. Suspected areas were not identied and it was not possible to measure the results of mine suspected area reduction. Reconstruction of the confrontation lines, more than 18,000 km long, was made at an early stage of systematic survey. Upon completion of the rst cycle of survey, 14,552 suspected locations were identied, including signicant reduction of suspected area.180 By the end of 2005 this number was reduced to 12,231 locations. The size of suspected area was 2,147 km2. Any mine suspected location has certain characteristics: area size, borders, priority categorization and intended use of land. Average size of the location covers the area of 0.176093 km2, and average length of its borders (hereinafter: perimeter) is 1.927523 km.181 A little more than 50% of locations182 are spread over the area that varies from 0.1 to 1 km2. The remaining 43% of locations spread over the area of 0.01 to 0.1 km2. Suspected locations for which there are mineeld records in the database, are typically of larger surface and perimeter than those locations for which there are no records.183 There are totally 25.40% locations in the rst category of priorities, 32.20% in the second category of priorities, and 42.40% in the third category of priorities. How to establish the limit to which the suspected area can be reduced during the operations of systematic survey? The answer to this question seems simple: In a systematic survey, suspected area may be reduced to the area for which there are veried records or serious suspicions on mine threats. Such an area on which the operations of humanitarian demining will be
180 181

See Graph 16: Suspected area reduction in Bosnia and Herzegovina by years.

In 2002, the average size of mine suspected location was 0.184975 km2, and perimeter 1.940880 km, which means that the size of average location was slightly reduced. That is understandable, since the correction based on new data is made at the level of location, by changing its borders. See Graph 17: Number of mine suspected locations by area size.

182 183

Average size of the locations for which there are records on mineelds is 0.239355 km2 (median: 0.14657 km2), and of those without records on mineelds is 0.141634 km2 (median: 0.141634 km2). There are totally 60% of locations, recorded to have mineelds, with the size of 0.1 to 1 km2, while there are 45% of those locations with no records on mines.

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IMPACT OF LEFTOVER MINES AND ERW ON POST-CONFLICT COUNTRIES

sq km
4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0

SUSPECTED AREA REDUCTION 4,000

2800 2300 2150

2002

2003

Source: Database of B&H Mine Action Centre

2004

2005

Graph 16: Suspected area reduction in Bosnia and Herzegovina

NUMBER OF MINE SUSPECTED LOCATIONS BY AREA SIZE 2 0.02% 337 2.71%

167 1.34%

281 2.26% 2449 19.72%

Area of 0,0000 sqkm to 0,0049 sqkm Area of 0,0050 sqkm to 0,0099 sqkm Area of 0,0100 sqkm to 0,0499 sqkm Aera of 0,0500 sqkm to 0,0999 sqkm Area of 0,1000 sqkm to 0,9999 sqkm Area of 1,0000 sqkm to 4,9999 sqkm Area of more than 5,0000 sqkm LEGEND: NUMBER OF LOCATIONS PORTION IN %

6296 50.70%

281 2,26%

2886 23.24%
Source: Database of the B&H Mine Action Centre, situation in July 2005

Graph 17: Number of mine suspected locations by area size

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conducted is called risk area. The borders of risk areas and other geographical and land characteristics, risk assessment and plan of operations are established on the basis of the results of general survey, which will be elaborated later. In practice it is more difcult to establish the level of suspected area reduction, because systematic survey is a dynamic process that involves almost daily changes. It is difcult to monitor and analyze changes at a large number of locations. The LIS was followed by the detailed identication of risk areas in the affected communities. The identication is made through general survey, when the total suspected area of a community is viewed as risk area that will be the focus of humanitarian demining. In the rst 39 highly impacted communities, which were surveyed in this way, the average reduction of area was 21.43%, compared to the initial situation. On the assumption that the level of suspected area reduction will remain the same, one may predict the size of the area that will be the focus of future operations of humanitarian demining. The present suspected area is predicted to be 469 km2.

4.1.7. How many laid mines are there in Bosnia and Herzegovina?

Previous estimates. The rst estimates of the number of mines in Bosnia and Herzegovina were made in 1993, varying from 1-1.7 million mines to 6 million mines, as estimated by the International Committee of Red Cross in 1996. The only valid estimates that were used until 2002, were those of the international stabilization forces, according to which there were nearly 1 million mines and 3 million items of unexploded ordnance in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The previous Demining Strategy for Bosnia and Herzegovina, for the period 2002-2010, estimates that there are at least 670,000 mines and 650,000 pieces of unexploded ordnance in the country. The revised Mine Action Strategy, for the period 2005-2009, offers no estimates of the number of mines and mineelds, but suspected areas only. Calculation of the number of mines based on the size of suspected area and characteristics of mineelds. Out of totally 12,419 mine suspected locations presently identied, there are 8,039 locations with no registered mineelds. On the assumption that mine density in suspected areas with no registered mineelds is the same as mine density in the areas with registered mineelds, the estimate of the number of mines in Bosnia and Herzegovina may be made according to two methods: The rst method produces a calculation of the number of mines based on mine density in suspected areas. If the number of cleared mines is deducted from the total number of mines, one gets the estimate of the number of mines pertaining to suspected areas for which data can be found in mineeld records.

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IMPACT OF LEFTOVER MINES AND ERW ON POST-CONFLICT COUNTRIES

CALCULATION OF THE NUMBER OF MINES BASED ON MINE DENSITY IN SUSPECTED AREA ESTIMATE OF THE NUMBER OF MINES IN SUSPECTED AREA WITH MINEFIELD RECORDS AVERAGE NUMBER OF MINES IN SUSPECTED AREA WITH MINEFIELD RECORDS ESTIMATE OF THE NUMBER OF MINES IN SUSPECTED AREA WITHOUT MINEFIELD RECORDS ESTIMATE OF THE NUMBER OF MINES IN B&H 263,949 60 484,449 748,398

Table 3: Calculation of the number of mines based on mine density in suspected areas

Based on that, the average density of mines in a suspected area can be worked out. When the average number of mines is multiplied by number of suspected areas without any registered mineeld, an estimate of the missing mines is established. The second method involves a calculation of the number of mines based on density of mineelds in suspected areas. If the number of mineelds removed by armed forces and around 1,500 mineelds removed in humanitarian demining are deducted from the total number of registered mineelds, we get an estimate of the number of registered mineelds. When the average number of mineelds is multiplied by the number of suspected areas without any registered mineeld, we will get an estimate of the number of mineelds that are not registered. According to these calculations, there are 43,461 mineelds in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Mineeld records suggest that the average number of mines in a mineeld is 19.24. When this number is multiplied by number of unregistered mineelds, we get the missing number of mines.

CALCULATION OF THE NUMBER OF MINES BASED ON AVERAGE DENSITY OF MINES IN MINEFIELDS ESTIMATE OF THE NUMBER OF REGISTERED MINEFIELDS AVERAGE NUMBER OF MINES IN A MINEFIELD ACCORDING TO MINEFIELD RECORDS AVERAGE NUMBER OF MINES PER SUSPECTED AREA WITH MINEFIELD RECORDS ESTIMATED NUMBER OF MINEFIELDS IN SUSPECTED AREAS WITHOUT MINEFIELD RECORDS ESTIMATED NUMBER OF MINES IN SUSPECTED AREAS WITHOUT MINEFIELD RECORDS ESTIMATE OF THE NUMBER OF MINES IN B&H 15,328 19.24 3.50 28,133 541,276 805,225

Table 4: Calculation of the number of mines based on the average density of mines in a mineeld

The weakness of these two estimates pertains to the characteristics of suspected area. The number of areas without registered mineelds is two times bigger than the number of areas with registered mineelds. The average number of mines in suspected areas with mineeld records was copied to suspected areas without any registered mineelds. As the number of suspected areas without mineeld records is

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two times bigger, and in view of the previous calculation that they are on the average almost two times smaller in size, one may challenge then the assumption that the characteristics of suspected areas are similar. The third method to produce a calculation of the number of mines is more realistic because, instead of the number of suspected areas, it introduces suspected area measured in square metres into calculation. By working out the average density of mines per one unit of suspected area, the weaknesses of the two previous estimates can be avoided. The weakness of this estimate, however, is that the number of mineelds cannot be estimated.

CALCULATION OF THE NUMBER OF MINES BASED ON MINE DENSITY PER AREA UNIT ESTIMATE OF THE NUMBER OF MINES IN SUSPECTED AREAS WITH MINEFIELD RECORDS SIZE OF SUSPECTED AREA WITH MINEFIELD RECORDS (sqkm) AVERAGE DENSITY OF MINES IN SUSPECTED AREA (mine/sqkm) SIZE OF SUSPECTED AREA WITHOUT MINEFIELD RECORDS (sqkm) ESTIMATE OF THE NUMBER OF MINES IN SUSPECTED AREAS WITHOUT MINEFIELD RECORDS ESTIMATE OF THE NUMBER OF MINES IN B&H 263,949 1,048 252 1,139 286,663 550,612

Table 5: Calculation of the number of mines based on mine density per one area unit

Calculation of the number of mines based on humanitarian demining operations on the end of 2005. Analyses of humanitarian demining operations in the last seven years have provided elements for making estimates of the number of mines in Bosnia and Herzegovina.184 Results of the analyses show that of the total area subject to humanitarian demining operations, only 11.54% was truly contaminated with mines. A general assessment of the mine situation contains an estimate that humanitarian demining operations will include 460 km2 of risk area, across which the mined area will be identied. The portion of mine area within risk area is not expected to rise in the future. In that way estimates are made that the size of the remaining mined area in Bosnia and Herzegovina is 53 km2. The average number of mineelds in mineelds records is a little larger in relation to the average number of mineelds detected in the course of humanitarian demining operations. That was expected for many reasons: individual mines were previously removed, destroyed or activated, demining organisations did not report them or they were not detected. The average size of a mineeld in humanitarian demining operations conducted so far is calculated to be 4,342 m2. Based on that an estimate is made that there
184

Results of the analysis of humanitarian demining operations conducted so far in Bosnia and Herzegovina can be found in the chapter Development of Mine Action in Bosnia and Herzegovina. They are used here as indicators of humanitarian demining operations, without elaborating on how they were created.

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are 12.2 thousand mineelds. The weakness of this estimate is a prediction based on historical data, which change all the time, and a suspicion that reports do not contain the information on all detected mines. Besides, the estimate resulted in a small number of mineelds, suggesting that the number of mineelds in Bosnia and Herzegovina approximates to the number of the registered mineelds, and this result is unacceptable.

CALCULATION OF THE NUMBER OF MINES BASED ON HUMANITARIAN DEMINING OPERATIONS SIZE OF SUSPECTED AREA IN B&H - SITUATION IN DECEMBER 2005 (sqkm) ESTIMATE OF THE AREA TO BE REDUCED BY HUMANITARIAN DEMINING (CLEARANCE AND TECHNICAL SURVEY) ESTIMATE OF THE AREA TO BE CLEARED (sqkm) ESTIMATE OF THE MINED AREA IN B&H (sqkm) AVERAGE NUMBER OF MINES IN A MINEFIELD
ACCORDING TO MINEFIELD RECORDS DETECTED DURING HUMANITARIAN DEMINING

2,147 460 86 53 19.24 15.32 4,342 12,229 235,284

AVERAGE AREA OF A MINEFIELD (sqm) CALCULATION OF THE NUMBER OF MINEFIELDS

FOR THE AVERAGE NUMBER OF MINES IN A MINEFIELD ACCORDING TO MINEFIELD RECORDS FOR THE AVERAGE NUMBER OF MINES IN A MINEFIELD DETECTED DURING HUMANITARIAN DEMINING

ESTIMATE OF THE NUMBER OF MINES IN B&H, BY THE END OF 2005

187,401

Table 6: Calculation of the number of mines based on humanitarian demining operations

Conclusion on the number of leftover mines in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The rst and second estimates are maximum estimates, and the fourth one is a minimalist estimate. The values obtained in the third estimate are in the middle, but there is no estimate of the number of mineelds. If the third estimate (Table 5) is accepted as the closest to the real number of mines in Bosnia and Herzegovina, the number of mineelds can be calculated by taking the average number of mines in the mineelds from mineelds records and from humanitarian demining operations conducted so far (Table 6). Analysing the previous estimates and taking into account the assumptions stated, one may conclude that on the end of 2005 there are still 29-35 thousand mineelds, with nearly 550 thousand mines in Bosnia and Herzegovina. If one adds to that gure the mines destroyed until now, which is 461,634 mines that were stored and destroyed after the war, 14,244 mines removed in military demining operations and nearly 25,000 mines removed in humanitarian demining operations, the nal estimate can

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be made that something more than one million mines had been laid in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Even on the assumption that a part of mines that are not included in this estimate was taken away from Bosnia and Herzegovina in the course or at the end of war by armed forces of the neighbouring countries, it is difcult to defend some of the previous estimates suggesting that 3-6 million mines had been laid in Bosnia and Herzegovina. This number of mines additionally conrms the previous estimates made in the analysis of the character of conict in Bosnia and Herzegovina. According to that assessment, which relies upon the engineering standards and size of the JNA armed forces deployed in Bosnia and Herzegovina at the beginning of the war, one may estimate about 1.1- 2.5 million of mines.

BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA GENERAL ASSESSMENT OF MINE SITUATION

LEGEND
SUSPECTED AREA CLEARED AREA TECHNICAL SURVEY

MINE LIFTING MINE ACCIDENTS/ INCIDENTS

Map 2: General assessment of mine situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina

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IMPACT OF LEFTOVER MINES AND ERW ON POST-CONFLICT COUNTRIES

4.2.

Problem of leftover mines and ERW in the Southeast Europe as a result of post- 1991 armed conicts

Croatia There are different estimates of the number of mines that were laid in Croatia. They used to vary between two and three million mines, although there were some authors who denied many of those estimates.185 Croatia was estimated to have about half a million mines in 2005.186 The rst estimate of mine suspected area was made in 1999 by the Croatian Mine Action Centre (CROMAC), according to which the size of mine suspected area was 6,000 km2. Since then to April 2005, the CROMAC reduced the mine suspected area to 1.174 km2, or 2.08% of the territory of Croatia. Mineelds in Croatia extend throughout 12 out of a total of 24 counties. HCR estimated that 121 or 22.16% out of total number of municipalities are threatened by mines. 1,113,000 residents live in mine-affected municipalities, which is on the average 9,197 per one affected municipality. From the beginning of war until the end of 2004 there were 1,719 mine casualties, including 421 fatalities. The process of organisation and implementation of mine action operations began in 1995. Since 1996 to 1998, mine action operations were led by the UN Mine Action Centre, and since 1998 by the Croatian Mine Action Centre. By the end of 2004, the area of 533.10 km2 was demined, including mine clearance operations in the area of 136.6 km2, and technical survey conducted in the area of 416.5 km2. 79.501 mines were removed in demining operations, including 52,047 anti-personnel mines and 27,454 anti-tank mines. During the same period 147,217 pieces of UXO were removed and destroyed. By 24 October 2002 Croatia destroyed its stocks of anti-personnel mines consisting of about 200,000 pieces, while 6,500 mines were retained for training. Extensive measures of protection against mines were conducted. Nearly one million people were delivered information on mines through various mine risk education activities, and the majority of known mineelds were marked. Croatia became a member of the Ottawa Convention on 01 March 1999. Mine action activities became legally regulated by the adoption of the Law on Demining in 1996. The Government of the Republic of Croatia adopted the National Mine Action Programme for the period 2005-2009.187
185 186 187

unec O.: Planet mina, Strata istraivanja (The Mine Planet: Strata Investigations), Zagreb, 1997, pages 210-211. Estimates of the Croatian Mine Action Centre.

Source of the majority of information: e-mail by Miljenko Vahtari, Assistant Director of the Croatian Mine Action Centre, dated 9 November 2005, reply to e-mail questionnaire addressed to the Croatian Mine Action Centre.

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Serbia and Montenegro188 (Kosovo not included in the estimate of the situation) In Serbia and Montenegro, as a result of NATO airstrikes, UXO represents a more serious problem than mines. Unexploded cluster munitions and air-dropped bombs constitute the biggest part of UXO. Unexploded cluster munitions are scattered on seven large locations (six locations in Serbia and one in Montenegro, where the airports of the Yugoslav Army were located during wartime) with a total area of 26.5 km2. Apart from cluster bombs, there are leftover bombs and air-ground rockets that did not explode during the NATO strikes on military and commercial facilities in Serbia. It is estimated that there are 62 unexploded air-bombs at 44 locations in Serbia, including those placed in the Sava and Danube riverbeds.189 It was the Yugoslav Army that installed landmine barriers in Serbia and Montenegro, as a measure to protect their territory. Three mine-contaminated areas were identied: 1. The rst is the border area, stretching from the tri-border point where Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia and Serbia meet, to the Zagreb-Belgrade highway. Mineelds were laid by the former JNA in 1991 and 1992. Their size is around 5.1 km2, including 8,500 laid mines, of which there are 5,300 antipersonnel and 3,200 armour-piercing mines. 2. The second area is in the Montenegrin Municipality of Plav, stretching 81 km in length along the border with Albania. 65 mineelds were planted here in 1991, by the JNA again. After a part of the mineelds was cleared, there are 31 mineelds left for demining. 3. The third area is the area of Prevlaka, at the border between Croatia and Montenegro. The demining of Prevlaka was completed in 2003 by joint efforts of the Croatian Mine Action Centre and Centre for Underwater Demining of Montenegro. According to the gures of the Mine Action Centre of Serbia, the total suspected area is 28.3 km2 or 0.03% of the territory of Serbia (not including Kosovo). It is estimated that there are 59 affected communities, including three mine-affected communities, and the remaining 56 are UXO-affected communities. The Centre estimates that there are 1.900.000 people directly or indirectly threatened by the presence of mines and UXO.190
188

Description of the problem for Serbia and Montenegro dates back to the time prior to the disintegration of the state union into two independent states. The short period that followed was not long enough for the preparation of separate estimates for the two states. The problems pertaining to Kosovo were described separately since mine action operations in Kosovo have not been conducted under the supervision of the Serbain state authoritiers. Landmine Monitor Report 2005, Toward a MineFree World, International Campaign to Ban Landmines, Human Rights Watch, Washington, pages 517-519.

189 190

The estimate of the number of at-risk population is oversized in relation to the size of suspected areas and the number of affected communities. The reasons for that could be the fact that the afliation to a community was not taken as a basic criterion and the presence of air-dropped bombs in urban communities.

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The Army of Serbia and Montenegro is in possession of 1,320,620 anti-personnel mines that have not yet been destroyed. Having ratied the Ottawa Convention, Serbia and Montenegro committed themselves to destroying all anti-personnel mines by 01 March 2008. There is no complete evidence of mine and UXO casualties. The implementation of mine action operations began in 2002. There was no unique authority to manage the implementation of mine actions operations. The Mine Action Centre of Serbia is in charge of the implementation of operations in the territory of Serbia, not including Kosovo, and the Centre for Underwater Demining of Montenegro is in charge of removing landmines in the territory of Montenegro. By the end of 2004, 2.76 km2 of territory was cleared of mines and UXO, of which 1.4 km2 mine cleared, 1.36 km2 UXO cleared. Technical survey of the area of 35.5 km2 was conducted, including 6.5 km2 of mined territory and 29 km2 of UXO affected territories. 3,276 mines, 9,119 cluster bombs and 1 air-dropped bomb were removed in demining operations.191 The state union of Serbia and Montenegro became a member of the Ottawa Convention on 1 March 2004. There was no unique legislation at the level of state union to regulate the implementation of mine action operations, nor were strategic documents prepared.192 Kosovo. Mine barriers were laid in Kosovo with the intensication of the armed conict, the majority of them in the rst half of 1999. Mines were laid by all armed formations. The Yugoslav Army, special police forces, and other Serbian armed formations were placing mine barriers, using mainly anti-personnel mines. It is estimated that the Yugoslav Army emplaced 75-80 % of all mineelds in Kosovo.193 Most of the mineelds were marked with quality mineeld records. Special police forces and other Serbian armed formations emplaced mineelds near populated places more for psychological than for military purposes; the majority of those mineelds are not marked and registered. OVK (Kosovo Liberation Army) used anti-tank mines on the routes of movement of the Yugoslav Army and in front of its own defensive emplacements. UXO contamination in Kosovo came as a consequence of the NATO air strikes in the period from March to June 1999. NATO made the rst estimates of the mine situation in Kosovo, soon after it entered Kosovo. It was estimated that more than 600 mineelds had been laid in Kosovo, and that 333 locations were contaminated with UXO left over from the air strikes.194 Late in 2001, following the extensive clearance operations, the UNMIK reported
191 192

Immediatelly after the NATO strikes, 2500 cluster bombs and heavy air-dropped bombs were removed.

Source of the majority of information: e-mail by Josip Mari, from the Mine Action Centre of Serbia, dated 11 November 2005, reply to e-mail questionnaire addressed to the Mine Action Centre of Serbia. Landmine Monitor Report 2005, Toward a MineFree World, International Campaign to Ban Landmines, Human Rights Watch, Washington, page 956. Article by Christine Brawdy: UNMIK Mine Action Coordination Center, Journal of Mine Action, Issue 4.1, MAIC James Medison University, 2000.

193 194

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that all known mineelds and locations with cluster munitions have been demined according to the internationally accepted standards.195 Soon after that, these statements were denied. The Landmine Impact Survey of Kosovo was completed in March 2003. According to the results of the survey, there are 228 mine and UXO affected communities in Kosovo (11.33% of the total number) with maximum 360.7 km2 of suspected area (3.32% of the territory of Kosovo).196 Other estimates of the originally suspected area are signicantly less than the one made by the Survey Action Centre.197 Mine action operations in Kosovo began in 1999, upon establishment of the UNMIK Mine Action Centre. In only two years a total of 33.2 km2 area was cleared of mines around 25,000 thousand mines and 30,000 various UXO types were removed. The UN Centre completed its work in 2001, and the Sector in charge of managing explosive removal operations, within the Kosovo Protection Corp, took over the responsibility for mine action operations. The activities of humanitarian demining became intensied again, and mine clearance operations alone increased from 0.2 km2 in 2002 to 3.9 km2 in 2004. Albania The north-eastern and central parts of Albania are contaminated with mines. In the border area of the north-eastern part of the country, the Yugoslav forces emplaced mineelds during the armed conict in Kosovo in 1998 and 1999. The central parts of Albania are contaminated with abandoned explosive ordnance, as a consequence of lootings of storage depots during the civil riots in 1997. Since 1999 to 2000 the Albanian armed forces conducted a general survey and estimated that the size of mine suspected area was 15 km2. The latest Albanian estimate of mine suspected area was made late in 2004, when it was established to be 4.3 km2, with 39 mine-affected populated places. By the end of 2004, there were 443 mine casualties, including 94 fatalities. Mine action operations began in 1999, when the Albanian Mine Action Committee (AMAC) and Albanian Mine Action Executive (AMAE) were formed. All mine action components were implemented. From the beginning of humanitarian demining operations until the end of 2004, a total of 1.9 km2 of risk area was cleared. Albania became a member of the Ottawa Convention on 1 August 2000. By 4 April 2002, it destroyed its stocks of 1,683,860 anti-personnel mines.
195 196 197

Landmine Monitor Report 2005, Toward a MineFree World, International Campaign to Ban Landmines, Human Rights Watch, Washington, page 956.

Modied Level One Impact Survey: Setting Mine Action Priorities in Kosovo, Annex 2, Survey Action Centre, Washington, 2000, page 5. In his article Mine Problem in the Region of Southeastern Europe, Journal of Mine Action, James Medison University, Issue 7/2/2003, page 6, Goreta D. states that upon the cessation of conicts, the size of mine suspected area in Kosovo was 80 km2, and late in 2002, it was 45 km2.

98

IMPACT OF LEFTOVER MINES AND ERW ON POST-CONFLICT COUNTRIES

Macedonia Macedonia does not have a serious problem with mines, but it has an evident problem of contamination of the southern part of the country with ERW from the First and Second World War. It is estimated that there are about eighty mine- and UXO-affected villages.198 After the cessation of the armed conict, on 13 August 2001, the UN Mine Action Ofce in Macedonia made the rst estimate of mine and UXO suspected area. The size of the area was 80 km2. Late in 2002 that area was reduced to 21 km2 or 0.08% of the state territory. It was estimated then that there were around 2,000 mines and 70,000 pieces of UXO.199 There are no recent estimates of the mine situation. In the period from 1999 to the end of 2003, there were at least 67 mine casualties, including 24 fatalities. Mine action operations began in 2001, being coordinated by the UN Mine Action Ofce (UNMAO). Since July 2003, local authorities have taken over the responsibility over mine action. The task leader is the unit for humanitarian demining of the Protection and Rescue Directorate. Macedonia became a member of the Ottawa Convention on 01 March 1999. It nished destroying its stocks of 38,921 stored anti-personnel mines on 20 February 2003.

198 199

Landmine Monitor Report 2005, International Campaign to Ban Landmines, 2005, page 413.

Goreta D.: Mine Problem in the Region of Southeastern Europe, Journal of Mine Action, James Medison University, Issue 7/2/2003, pages 6 and 8.

99

DARVIN LISICA

MINEFIELDS IN SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

Ad

ria

tic

Se

LEGEND
Cities Border Reduced; Cleared Reported; Recorded Victims

Source:

Map 3: Mineelds in South-eastern Europe

100

IMPACT OF LEFTOVER MINES AND ERW ON POST-CONFLICT COUNTRIES

4.3.

Post conict problem of mines and ERW in some other countries

Afghanistan, Azerbaijan and Yemen are among forty countries that are heavily affected by mines and ERW. These countries have been chosen for an analysis of the postconict problem because the methodology that was used for LIS in those countries is the same as in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and it is possible to compare some indicators of the impact of conicts on the problem of leftover mines and ERW. Afghanistan Afghanistan is located in the continental part of central Asia, and it borders on China, Iran, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. The overall area of the country is 647,497 km2. The number of population in 2005 was estimated to be about 30 million. The population is multiethnic. The majority ethnic group are Pashtuns, who constitute 42% of the population, Tajiks 27%, Hazaras 9%, Uzbeks 9%, Aimaks 4%, Turkmens 3 % and others 6%. About 80% of the population are Sunni Muslims, 19% Shia Muslims, and 1% members of other religions. 200 The problem of mines, UXO and other explosive ordnance has been present in Afghanistan for more than 25 years. In 1973, when the former Prime Minister Mohammad Daoud toppled the last King Zahir Shah, the era of political instability began. The newly established republic did not pass through the expected prosperity. Although Daoud was pro-Soviet oriented, he was toppled in 1978 by the communist fractions, as they were not satised with his economic achievements. The new communist government was faced with tribal rebellion, which caused the Soviet military intervention in 1979. The 10-year Soviet presence in Afghanistan was marked by military conicts between Mujahedeen forces on one side and Soviet forces and the forces loyal to the proSoviet government in Kabul on the other. The war totally devastated the economy of Afghanistan and created 5-6 million refugees. In 1989 the Soviets withdrew from Afghanistan, leaving behind themselves unsettled relations between various ethnic and political groups. After the collapse of the communist regime, in 1992, the country again sank into armed conicts, turning into a civil war led by main ethnic groups. Besides, the Islamist movement, which advocated observing strict Islamic rules, began to strengthen in the country. It was named after students who founded it the Talibans. They took over control over a large part of the country by 1996. The Taliban regime did not bring economic prosperity, but introduced repressive control over the society. The regime collapsed during the military intervention of the USA and its allies in 2001, after the Talibans rejected to extradite Osama bin Laden, the leader of Al Qaeda, for the terrorist attack on the USA. Following the military intervention, a
200

Sources: The World Factbook, Afganistan, CIA, www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook, date of access 07 Sept 2005 and Military Encyclopaedia 1st and 2nd edition, Redaction of the Military Encyclopaedia, Belgrade, 1973, page 51.

101

DARVIN LISICA

transition government was established in the country, and the USA-led international forces stayed in Afghanistan, confronting occasionally the Taliban armed groups.201 The Landmine Impact Survey in Afghanistan, which was completed in November 2004, identied 2,368 mine and ERW impacted communities, or 7.1% of the total number of the communities. 4.2 million or 15% of the total population of Afghanistan lives in them. The LIS also identied 4,514 suspected areas totalling 715.9 km2, which makes up 0.11% of the countrys territory. It is estimated that since 1988 until the end of 2004 there were 13,357 mine and ERW casualties, including 2,450 fatalities.202 The Afghanistan mine action programme is among the oldest. It started in 1989 through humanitarian demining operations, with occasional interruptions because of armed conicts. Since 1999, the process of demining has been systematically monitored and until the end of 2004, clearance operations were conducted on 938 km2 of the territory contaminated with mines and ERW. In the same period the suspected area was reduced by 544 km2 through technical surveys. By the average number of humanitarian demining operations per year, Afghanistan is at the rst place in the world. A specic characteristic of the operations of humanitarian demining in Afghanistan is that 68% of the totally cleared and technically surveyed area involved ERW being detected and removed from it, while 32% of the area involved detection and removal of mines. About 294 thousand anti-personnel mines, 19 thousand antitank mines and over one million and 400 thousand pieces of ERW were removed and destroyed. Nearly 12 million people passed through various information campaigns and training as part of mine risk education efforts.203 Afghanistan has been a member of the Ottawa Convention since 1 March 2003. Mine action operations have been managed by the United Nations, which prepared the rst strategic plan for the period 2003-2007. Azerbaijan Azerbaijan is located in the northwest of Asia, in a part of the large valley between the Small and Big Caucasus. It borders on the Russian Federation, Iran, Turkey, Armenia, Gruzia and the Caspian Sea. The country includes the Autonomous Region of Nagorno-Karabakh and the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic. The size of the area is 86,600 km2, and the population number in 2005 was estimated to be about 7.9 million. According to the 1999 census, Azeris constitute 90.6% of the population,
201 202

Source of information: Afghanistan: Country Studies - Federal Research Division, Library of Congress, 2001, http://lcweb2.loc.gov/frd/cs/aftoc.html, date of access 27 June 2005. Source: Afghanistan Landmine Impact Survey: Final Report, 2005, the courtesy of the Survey Action Centre from Washington, given before publishing, E-mail of Peter Harvey, peter@sac-na.org , dated 06 July 2005. Source of information: Landmine Monitor Report 2005, International Campaign to Ban Landmines, 2005, page 84 -112.

203

102

IMPACT OF LEFTOVER MINES AND ERW ON POST-CONFLICT COUNTRIES

Dagestanis 2.2%, Russians 1.8%, Armenians 1.5% and others 3.9%. Almost all Armenians live in Nagorno - Karabakh. The process of secession from the Soviet Union began in 1989, when the Supreme Court of Azerbaijan issued a resolution on sovereignty. The resolution proclaimed the right to Azerbaijan to hold a referendum on secession from the Soviet Union. In the same year the Armenian majority in the National Council of the Autonomous Region of Nagorno-Karabakh proclaimed the unication of that part of Azerbaijan with Armenia, which was conrmed by Armenias Supreme Soviet.204 Ethnic conicts between Azeris and Armenians sprang up, with mass murders on both sides. The military intervention of Armenia took place early in 1990. Its army entered NagornoKarabakh. The International Community rejected a possibility for that region to become annexed to Armenia. For that reason the Government of Nagorno-Karabakh organized a referendum on independence from Azerbaijan in 1991. Following the referendum, independence was proclaimed and international recognition was sought. That move provoked new conicts. In February of 1992 the Armenian armed forces attacked the Azeri population in Nagorno-Karabakh. By the end of 1993, Azerbaijan had more than one million refugees and displaced persons. Fierce battles were fought during 1993, being followed by peace negotiations that began in spring 1994. The negotiations ended with the Bishkek Protocol establishing the ceasere in summer 1994. 16% of the territory of Azerbaijan is under occupation of the Armenian Army.205 The Landmine Impact Survey in Azerbaijan, completed in June 2003, 206 identied 480 mine and ERW-affected communities in Azerbaijan. In the north-western part of the country, where the Red Armys training polygons were located, the LIS identied 163 communities contaminated with UXO, as a consequence of an explosion of a depot of the Red Army, in the course of the withdrawal from Azerbaijan in 1991. 515,000 residents or about 6% of the countrys population, live in mine and UXOaffected areas. The LIS identied 970 suspected locations of the total area of 136 km2. From the beginning of conict until the end of 2004 there were 1,286 mine casualties, including 472 fatalities.207
204

Source of information: Azerbaijan: Country Studies - Federal Research Division, Library of Congress, 2001, http://lcweb2.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/r?frd/cstdy:@eld(DOCID+az0005), date of access 27 June 2005. Occupied Nagorno-Karabakh and districts: Jabrayil, Zangilan, Gubadly, Lachin, Kelbajar and some parts of Fizuli and Aghdam. The Landmine Impact Survey was not conducted in the entire country. The information from the General Survey of Mine Situation of Azerbaijan does not refer to the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh, and districts: Jabrayil, Zangilan, Gubadly, Lachin, Kelbajar and some parts of Fizuli and Aghdam, which are under Armenian occupation, and to the situation in the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic. Source of information: Republic of Azerbaijan Landmine Impact Survey, Survey Action Centre, Washington, 2003. and reply to the questionnaire addressed to Aziz Aliyev, Information Manager of the Azerbaijan National Mine Action Agency, e-mail dated 06, December 2005.

205 206

207

103

DARVIN LISICA

Map 4: Azerbaijan, mine and ERW-affected communities208

Mine action activities in Azerbaijan began in 1999, following the establishment of the Azerbaijan National Mine Action Agency. Since that time and until November 2005, 20.5 km2 of mine and ERW-contaminated area was cleared. In the same period, suspected area was reduced by 137.8 km2 through technical surveys. Removal and destruction of UXO constituted 57% of mine and ERW clearance operations. The identication of mineelds made up 67% of the technical survey, while the remaining portion was the identication of UXO and other explosive remnants of war on the territories where battles were fought.209 As it is not a member of the Ottawa Convention, Azerbaijan participates at international gatherings to ban landmines through observer status and applies international mine action standards.
208 209

Source: http://www.sac-na.org/pdf_text/azerbaijan/WallMap.pdf, Survey Action Centre, Washington, date of access 26 December 2005. Landmine Monitor Report 2005, International Campaign to Ban Landmines, 2005, page 665 - 676 and reply to questionnaire addressed to Aziz Aliyev, Information Manager of the Azerbaijan National Mine Action Agency, a-mail dated 06 December 2005.

104

IMPACT OF LEFTOVER MINES AND ERW ON POST-CONFLICT COUNTRIES

Yemen Yemen is located at the south-western part of the Arabian Peninsula. It borders on Oman and Saudi Arabia, the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden and Arabian Sea. The area of the country is 527,970 km2. According to the estimates for 2005, 20.7 million people, mainly Yemeni Arabs, live in Yemen. Until 1990 Yemen was divided into two independent states. North Yemen became independent of the Ottoman Empire in 1918, when the Mutawakkilite Kingdom of Yemen was established, and, since 1962, after the coup, the Arab Republic of Yemen was established. The port of Aden was a British colony since 1839, and the remaining territory of South Yemen consisted of a number of small feudal states that made part of the British protectorate of Aden. South Yemen was established in 1967, after the 4-year war of independence from Great Britain. Three years later, having won power in the country, the Marxists established the Peoples Republic of South Yemen. Since 1970 it was called the Peoples Democratic Republic of Yemen. The process of unication of two Yemeni states began in 1988. In 1990 a unied Republic of Yemen, was proclaimed 210 The mine and ERW problem in Yemen is associated with four armed conicts: A. The conict between the republicans and the royalists in the period 19621975, after the republic in North Yemen was proclaimed. It is known that some mines were planted in the highland area, toward the border with Saudi Arabia, but there is no evidence of that. B. The war of independence of South Yemen from Great Britain in the period 1963-1967. A small number of mineelds were emplaced during the armed conict, most of which were subsequently identied and recorded. C. The armed conict between North Yemen and the leftist guerrilla in the period 1970-1983. Groups of armed leftists in North Yemen were occasionally supported by the ideologically similar ruling forces in South Yemen. The conict provoked a large exodus from the south to the north of the disunited country. The ercest battles were fought in the central parts of the country, along the border between North and South Yemen. It is estimated that up to one million mines were scattered in fertile agricultural and grazing areas during the conict. D. 1994 Civil war. The short, armed conict generated the separatist movement for secession of South Yemen. Although the rebellion of the separatists was
210

Source of information: Military Encyclopaedia, 2nd edition, 1972, page 55 and 166, Wikipedia, the free encyclopaedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Yemen, History of Yemen, date of access 19 November 2005, and The World Factbook, Yemen, CIA, www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/ print/ym.html, date of access 07 September 2005.

105

DARVIN LISICA

soon suppressed, it is estimated that as many as 100,000 landmines, mostly anti-tank landmines, were planted in the southern and eastern provinces.211 The Landmine Impact Survey in Yemen, completed in September 2000, identied 592 mine and ERW-affected communities, which is 1.55% of all communities in the country. The LIS identied about 830 thousand people living in them, which is 3.99% of the total number of population. Late in 2004, suspected area was estimated to be about 843 km2 or 0.16% of the territory of Yemen.212 The estimates of the number of leftover mines vary signicantly from one source to another. They vary from 100,000 mines, as estimated by the US State Department in 1998, to 2 million mines, as estimated by the Yemeni Government. Mine action operations in Yemen have been implemented since 1999, after the establishment of the Yemeni Executive Mine Action Centre. Records for mine clearance and technical survey activities have been kept since 2000. Since then, about 9.6 km2 were cleared, and 70 km2 of the area subject to technical survey. About 5,000 anti-personnel mines, 750 anti-tank mines and 32,000 various pieces of UXO were removed. By 27 April 2002, the remaining stocks of 74,000 anti-personnel mines were removed. Yemen has been a member of the Ottawa Convention since 01 March 1999.

4.4.

Comparative indicators for mine and ERW-affected countries

Comparative analyses of mine and ERW-affected countries has been accompanied with certain difculties pertaining to sources of information, quality of information and the way that information is processed. The international mine action standards laid down minimum requirements for general mine action assessment, but those procedures differ in practice, to some extent, from one country to another. It imposes the need for a careful selection of those indicators for which one can provide as precise information as possible from reliable and authentic sources. A comparison of mine problems was made with selected indicators showing: impact of the nature of conict on the problem of leftover mines and ERW, exposure of countries to mine and ERW risk and success in mine action planning. The comparison included the examples of Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Yemen, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Croatia. The analysis of suspected area dependency on conict duration was made through the example of South-eastern Europe.
211

Landmine Monitor Report 1999, International Campaign to Ban Landmines, 1999, page 862 863.

212

This estimate is based on the Landmine Impact Survey of 2000, which identied 1,078 suspected locations totaling 977.2 km2 of the area. To work out the last estimate, from that gure one should deduct the area reduced in humanitarian demining from 2000 to 2004.

106

IMPACT OF LEFTOVER MINES AND ERW ON POST-CONFLICT COUNTRIES

Indicators of the impact of the nature of conict and its consequences on the problem of leftover mines and ERW The Balkans conicts show the dependency of the size of suspected area contaminated with mines and ERW on the duration of an armed conict. The graph below compares the duration of an armed conict in days and the estimated size of suspected area upon the cessation of conict. It may be noted that there is regularity between these two values, that is, the longer conict duration, the larger suspected area and vice versa. The size of suspected area in Macedonia deviates from this regularity, when compared to the situation in Serbia, where the conict lasted longer. The reason for that is a different nature of the armed conict in Serbia, being an air-ground battle, in which the ground forces of the warring parties did not directly confront each other. An increase in the size of suspected area leads, consequently, to the increase in the level of contamination with mines and ERW, and hence in the impact of mines on the overall socioeconomic life.

% AREA OF THE COUNTRY 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 7.82% Bosnia and Herzegovina

DEPENDENCY OF MINE SUSPECTED AREA SIZE ON THE DURATION OF ARMED CONFLICT 6000 sqkm

NUMBER OF DAYS 2200 2000 1800

PROPORTION (IN PERCENTAGES) OF SUSPECTED AREA WITHIN THE TOTAL AREA OF COUNTRY UPON CESSATION OF CONFLICT DURATION OF CONFLICT IN DAYS

4000 sqkm
1434

1679

4000 sqkm - SIZE OF SUSPECTED AREA CONTAMINATED WITH MINES AND ERW UPON CESSATION OF CONFLICT

1600 1400 1200 1000

360,7 sqkm

800 600

28,3 sqkm
10.64% Croatia 208 0.03% Serbia

466

80 sqkm
160 0.32% Macedonia

400 200 10 Slovenia 0

3.31% Kosovo

Source: Landmine Monitor Report 2002, 2003, 2004 and 2005 Human Rights Watch, Washington; Croatian Mine Action Centre, B&H Mine Action Centre, Serbian Mine Action Centre, International Trust Fund for Demining and Mine Victims Assistance

Graph 18: Dependency of mine suspected area on the duration of conicts in the Balkans, after 1990

To what extent is this regularity, observed in the case of the Balkans conicts, conrmed in the other post-conict countries? Although there is not enough evidence of how big the estimated size of suspected area was upon cessation of the armed conict, similar conclusions may be drawn. 107

DARVIN LISICA

AVERAGE NUMBER OF PEOPLE IN THE COMMUNITY

LIS COMPLETITION (MONTH-YEAR)

TOTAL NUMBER OF COMMUNITIES

AVERAGE SIZE OF SUSPECTED AREAS

AVERAGE AREA OF COMMUNITY

SUSPECTED AREA
NUMBER OF SUSPECTED AREA

NUMBER OF MINE AFFECTED COMMUNITIES

NUMBER OF PEOPLE IN THE AFFECTED COMMUNITIES

AVERAGE NUMBER OF PEOPLE IN THE AFFECTED COMMUNITY

IN RELATION TO TERRITORY OF COUNTRY

MEDIUM

MEDIUM

COUNTRY

COMMUNITIES AFFECTED BY ERW ONLY

LATEST ESTIMATE

TOTAL

sqkm

sqkm

sqkm

Afghanistan Azerbaijan Yemen Bosnia and Herzegovina Croatia

715.923 0.11% 136.000 0.16% 843.189 0.16%

4,514 0.159 970 0.140 1,078 0.782

11-2004 33,134 06-2003 08-2000 38,310 12-2003 12-2004 6,146

903

20 281 11

480 1,607 2,368 101 84 696 66 368 494 480 592

0 163 0 0 0

715,113 37,888 35,892 100,187 355,969

891,429 2,541,658 4,148,200 102,799 117,503 594,143 596,773 373,386 674,399 514,073 827,794

TOTAL

HIGH

HIGH

LOW

LOW

1,752 1,071 1,398 1,007 9,197

541 656

14 14 8 154 103 38

2691.358 5.26% 14,552 0.185 1174.000 2.08%

516 1,366 17 121

681,477 1,375,807 160,051 1,112,793

546 8,242

*Figures for Azerbaijan are without Nagorno-Karabakh, district: Jabrayil, Zangilan, Gubadly, Lachin, Kelbajar and partly Fizuli i Aghdam -under control of Armenia and without Autonomous Republic Nakhchivan Source: Landmine Monitor Report u 2002, 2003, 2004 and 2005, Human Rights Warch, Washington; Croatian Mine Action Centre, B&H Mine Action Centre, Azerbaijan National Agency for Mine Action, Survey Action Centre Washington

Table 7: Comparative indicators from the general mine action assessment for Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Yemen, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Croatia

The consequences of conicts in Afghanistan, Yemen and Azerbaijan show similar tendencies to those of the recent conicts in the Balkans, as illustrated by the estimates of the size of suspected area, the number of people and communities impacted, which were established by LIS.213 Unfortunately, there is not enough past evidence of the reduction of suspected area in order to reconstruct the situation immediately after the cessation of cessation. The last estimates of the size of suspected area contaminated with mines and ERW show that Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina are in a more difcult situation than the other analyzed countries.214 Relative size of suspected area in Afghanistan, Azerbaijan and Yemen varies from 0.11 to 0.16% of the countrys area. That size is 25-30 times larger in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Croatia.215 The pronounced difference between conict consequences of these two groups of countries is the relationship between mine contamination and ERW contamination. In Afghanistan, Yemen and even in Azerbaijan, ERW and other explosive ordnance represent more serious problems than mines. In the case of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Croatia, the situation is opposite.
213 214 215

See Table 7: Comparative indicators from general assessment of mine situation for Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Yemen, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Croatia. See Table 7: Comparative indicators from general assessment of mine situation for Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Yemen, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Croatia. Differences pronounced in this way may not be a consequence of various methods for estimation, because it is about single methodology that was accepted and supervised by specialized agencies of the United Nations.

108

IMPACT OF LEFTOVER MINES AND ERW ON POST-CONFLICT COUNTRIES

100% 90% 80% 70%

STRUCTURE OF MINE AND ERW BLOCKED RESOURCES IN MINE AFFECTED COMMUNITIES COMPARATIVE INDICATORS
OTHER INFRASTRUCTURE

60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Afghanistan Azerbaijan Yemen Bosnia and Herzegovina Croatia

WOOD AND OTHER PLANT RESOURCES COMMUNICATIONS (ROADS, RAILWAYS) WATER FOR OTHER PURPOSES DRINKING WATER HOUSING NON-IRRIGATED LAND IRRIGATED LAND PASTURES

Izvor: Landmine Monitor Report u 2002, 2003, 2004. i 2005. godini, Human Rights Watch, Washington; Croatian Mine Action Centre, B&H Mine Action Centre, Azerbaijan National Agency for Mine Action, Survey Action Centre Washington

Graph 19: Structure of mine-blocked resources in mine-affected communities, comparative indicators by countries
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0.00 0% Afghanistan Azerbaijan Yemen Bosnia and Herzegovina Croatia
Source: CIA - The World Factbook, 2005 www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook

m/sqkm

DENSITY OF COMMUNICATIONS NETWORK

AVERAGE LENGTH OF RAILWAYS PER AREA UNIT AVERAGE LENGTH OF OTHER COMMUNICATIONS PER AREA UNIT

PARTICIPATION OF SOME SECTOR IN GDP OF COUNTRIES COMPARATIVE INDICATORS

600.00

500.00

AVERAGE LENGTH OF ROADS/MACADAM ROADS PER AREA UNIT

400.00

300.00

SERVICES INDUSTRY AGRICULTURE AND FORESTRY

200.00

100.00

Afghanistan

Azerbaijan

Yemen

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Croatia

Source: CIA - The World Factbook,2005. godina, www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook

100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Afghanistan Azerbaijan Yemen Bosnia and Herzegovina Croatia
Source: CIA - The World Factbook, www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook

USE OF LAND IN MINE AND ERW AFFECTED COUNTRIES COMPARATIVE INDICATORS

US $
8,000 7,500 7,000 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT PER CAPITA

PERMANENT CROPS OTHER ARABLE LAND OTHER LAND

Afghanistan Azerbaijan Yemen Bosnia and Herzegovina According figures of International Monetary Fund for 2004, source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_%28nominal%29_per_capita

Croatia

Graph 20: Statistic information comparing the socioeconomic situation of mine and ERW-affected countries

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DARVIN LISICA

EXPOSURE TO RISK FROM MINES AND ERW IN RELATION TO THE AREA AND POPULATION OF COUNTRY
40.00% 35.00% 30.00% Croatia 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% 0.00% Azerbaijan Yemen AFFECTED POPULATION IN COUNTRY (IN PERCENTAGES) Bosnia and Herzegovina

Afghanistan

1.00%

2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 5.00% 6.00% PERCENTAGE OF SUSPECTED AREA WITHIN THE TOTAL AREA OF COUNTRY

Source: The World Factbook, www.cia.gov/cia/publication/factbook, acces date 07.09.2005. god; Croatian Mine Action Centre, B&H Mine Action Centre, Azarbaijan National Agency for Mine Actio, Survey Action Centre Washington

Graph 21: Exposure to risk from mines and ERW, comparative indicators by countries

Number of victims per one million of inhabitans 1,200

AVERAGE NUMBER OF VICTIMS PER ONE MILLION OF INHABITANS

1,211

Number of victims per one milion of inhabitans in 2004 90 and 2005 80 70 60

TOTAL AVERAGE, BY THE END OF 2005

1,000 800

YEAR 2004 YEAR 2005

50 600 508 400 200 3.8 0 Afghanistan Azerbaijan 29.3 28.3 242 161 7.1 0.8 1.7 Yemen 10.7 4.7 Bosnia and Herzegovina 3.6 4.4 0 Croatia 386 30 20 10 40

Source: Landmine Monitor Report u 2003.,2004. i 2005. godini, Human Rights Warch, Washington; Croatian Mine Acton Centre, B&H Mine Action Centre, Azerbaijan National Agency for Mine Action, International Committe of Red Cross.

Graph 22: Average number of casualties per one million of inhabitants, comparative indicators by countries

110

IMPACT OF LEFTOVER MINES AND ERW ON POST-CONFLICT COUNTRIES

Mines and ERW have a negative impact on the economic development of a country, as shown by the structure of resources that cannot be used because of mine and ERW presence.216 Afghanistan is in the most difcult situation. A little bit more than 70% of blocked resources are linked with agriculture that makes up 60% of gross domestic product of the country.217 Yemen, which has only 3% of arable land, is most susceptible to blocked resources linked with agricultural production. In Afghanistan and Yemen, more than in other countries, mines have a bigger impact on the use of roads. Density of roads in these two countries is much smaller per one unit of area than in the other countries included in the comparison. Indicators of exposure to mine and ERW risk There are many indicators to estimate the exposure to risk from mines and ERW in mine-affected countries. Two indicators of exposure to risk from mines and ERW will be analyzed here. The rst indicator is risk exposure at the level of the affected community, establishing a relation between the percentage of affected population in the country and the percentage of suspected area in the total area of the country.218 The number of mine casualties and their structure is an indicator of risk exposure. Afghanistan has by far the largest number of mine casualties, almost three times more than Yemen and Bosnia and Herzegovina. The worst ratio of fatalities to injuries was recorded in Yemen, where there are almost 50% of fatalities. The analysis of the number of casualties in relation to the number of inhabitants provides a different picture. Bosnia and Herzegovina has the largest average number of mine and ERW casualties per one million of inhabitants of the country, which is 1,206 casualties per one million of inhabitants. In 2004 and 2005, Afghanistan had the largest number of casualties per one inhabitant.219 According to conventional wisdom, Afghanistan is the most highly impacted country of the world. This comparative analysis of risk exposure indicators shows that Bosnia and Herzegovina is, according to some risk exposure indicators, even in a more difcult situation. In relation to the size, number of inhabitants and concentration of mine and ERW casualties, Bosnia and Herzegovina is among the most highly impacted countries of the world. Success indicators in mine action planning Successful mine action planning is one of the most important preconditions for mine and ERW risk reduction. We will analyze here some of the indicators comparing the
216 217 218 219

See Graph 19: Structure of mine-blocked resources in mine-affected communities, comparative indicators for Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Yemen, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Croatia. See Graph 20 for data on economic situation of the country: Statistic information to compare the socioeconomic situation of mine and UXO-affected countries See Graph 21: Exposure to risk from mines and ERW, comparative indicators by countries See Graph 22: Average number of casualties per one million of inhabitants, comparative indicators by countries.

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DARVIN LISICA

efciency of humanitarian demining operations, funding allocations for mine action operations and reduction in mine casualties. The rst indicator is the average number of detected mines per unit of cleared area. The indicator shows the level of success of the identication of hazardous locations, the assessment of mine risk there and the preparation of mine action programmes. They all are the elements of the system of planning humanitarian demining programmes. In 2004, the largest average number of mines detected in the cleared area was recorded in Croatia, and then in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Far less mines per one unit of cleared area were detected in the other countries.220

AVERAGE NUMBER OF MINES DETECTED IN THE CLEARED AREA IN 2004 SUCCESS INDICATORS OF RISK IDENTIFICATION number of mines/sqkm 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Afghanistan Azerbaijan Yemen Bosnia and Herzegovina Croatia
AND PLANNING OF HUMANITARIAN DEMINING

925 768

247 173 24

Source: Landmine Monitor Report 2005, Human Rights Watch, Washington

Graph 23: Average number of mines detected in the cleared area in 2004, comparative indicators by countries

The second indicator is a share of the countrys GDP allocated for mine action It illustrates the efforts that the affected country makes, by using its own nancial resources, to solve the mine problem as rapidly as possible. In 2004, Bosnia and Herzegovina allocated the biggest percentage share of the nominal gross domestic product.221
220 221

See Graph 23: Average number of mines detected in the cleared area in 2004, comparative indicators by countries See Graph 24: Funding allocations from domestic sources for mine actions in relation to gross domestic product in 2004, comparative indicators by countries

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IMPACT OF LEFTOVER MINES AND ERW ON POST-CONFLICT COUNTRIES

% GDP
0.12%

FUNDING ALLOCATIONS FROM DOMESTIC SOURCES FOR MINE ACTIONS IN RELATION TO GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT IN 2004 0.1184%

0.10%

0.0887%

0.08%

0.06%

0.04%

0.0267%
0.02%

0.00%

0.0000%
Afghanistan

0.0026%
Azerbaijan Yemen Bosnia and Herzegovina Croatia

Source: Landmine Monitor Report 2005, Human Rights Watch, Washington

Graph 24: Funding allocations from domestic sources for mine actions in relation to gross domestic product in 2004, comparative indicators by countries

REDUCTION/INCREASE IN THE NUMBER OF MINE AND ERW VICTIMS COMPARED TO THE SITUATION IN 2001
240% 220% 200% 180% 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%
YEAR
Source: Landmine Monitor Report 2003, 2004 and 2005, Human Rights Warch, Washington; Croatian Mine Action Centre, B&H Mine Action Centre, Azerbaijan National Agency for Mine Action, International Committeeof Red Cross

Afghanistan Azerbaijan Yemen Bosnia and Herzegovina Croatia

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Graph 25: Reduction/increase in the number of mine ERW casualties per year, comparative indicators by countries

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DARVIN LISICA

The reduction in number of casualties is an indicator of mine risk reduction, and thus of the success in mine action planning. A decreasing number of casualties shows that efcient measures that are taken in the protection against mines and mine action planning, organisation and implementation reduce the exposure of population to mine and ERW risk. The number of mine casualties in Bosnia and Herzegovina is declining. The situation in Afghanistan and Croatia is similar, including small variations, where the annual number of casualties was reduced by half in four years. The number of casualties in Yemen increased, and the number in Afghanistan oscillates very much year after year. There is a correlation between the level of success in the planning and implementation of mine action operations and the number of ERW/mine victims. This analysis shows that the number of victims grows proportionally to the decrease in the volume of mine action operations, i.e. the components reducing the risk from mines and ERW. The comparative analysis of the affected countries shows that the way of reducing mine and ERW risk is the main element in mine action planning. A success indicator in risk management is reduction of risk to an acceptable level. That is the point of the whole process in which mine action operations are carried out. The countries that implemented the elements of risk management in the course of planning mine action operations achieved better results.

114

IMPACT OF LEFTOVER MINES AND ERW ON POST-CONFLICT COUNTRIES

5. DEVELOPMENT OF MINE ACTION IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA

5.1.

Development of structure, resources and legislation since 1996

Development of mine action structure in Bosnia and Herzegovina Organised efforts to tackle the mine and UXO problem in Bosnia and Herzegovina began in 1996. Three stages were involved. The process in the rst stage, which began in mid-1996 and lasted until mid-1998, was led by the International Community in Bosnia and Herzegovina. In January 1996, Bosnia and Herzegovina requested assistance from the United Nations, being unable to fulll its obligations from the Dayton Peace Agreement with regard to mine and UXO removal. The UN Mine Action Centre (UNMAC) in Bosnia and Herzegovina was established in the same year. The London Conference, held in December 1996, specied the long-term obligations of Bosnia and Herzegovina to support the demining efforts. The second stage began in mid-1998 and ended early in 2002. Early in 1998 a Commission for Demining was appointed as a state-level body in charge of mine action activities. The transformation of the then UNMAC in mid-1998 resulted in establishing two entity-level and one state-level mine action centres. This stage was marked by an increasing number of organisations dealing with humanitarian demining, the adoption of the rst state-level standards, improvement of the material basis and organisation of professional training. The third stage began early in 2002, with the adoption of the Demining Law of Bosnia and Herzegovina. The previous structure became integrated in a single Mine Action Centre of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BHMAC); the Demining Strategy was adopted, and the material and human resource bases were strengthened. Since 2003, signicant progress was made in mine action management. The Landmine Impact Survey was conducted, new techniques for mine action assessment and planning were introduced and the quality assurance system was improved. Preconditions were made, through the review of the existing demining strategy, to improve he mine action system and solve the problem of insufcient funds in achieving strategic goals. In September 2004, after the review procedures were completed, the Council of Ministers adopted the current Mine Action Strategy for Bosnia and Herzegovina. Mine action resource status in Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2004 Bosnia and Herzegovina possessed sufcient and stable resources for more extensive scope of humanitarian demining operations than it was the case before. Late in 2004, nearly 2.100 deminers and 39 demining organisations were accredited, of which 15 non-governmental, 17 commercial and 7 governmental (Regional Dog Training Centre, two entity-level civil protection organisations, civil protection organisation 115

DARVIN LISICA

of the Brko District, RS Army and two organisations for the FBiH Army). The accredited organisations can employ about 1.200 deminers at any time, and they possess 38 mine-machines to prepare the soil for demining: 3 machines for vegetation removal, 27 machines for soil disturbing and 8 machines for waste removal. The annual capacity for humanitarian demining of these organisations range from 12.8 sq km (41 %) for clearance operations to 18.1 sq km (59 %) for technical surveys. 20% of the available capacities were used. 6 nongovernmental organisations have been involved in the activities related to mine risk education, and 5 organisations have dealt with implementing projects that provide assistance to mine victims. Any accredited organisation has at least one qualied person in charge of quality control, while bigger organisations have quality control teams. Following the requests of investors, two monitoring organisations became specialized for additional inspection. The Mine Action Centre in Bosnia and Herzegovina is in charge of conducting general survey of mineelds in Bosnia and Herzegovina and preparing project documents for humanitarian demining. The Centre employs 39 surveyors organised in two-member teams. The present capacities of the Mine Action Centre allow general survey of about 100-110 sq km of risk area per year or 1500-1700 of surveyed locations per year with maximum effort and maximum use of the time available. Within regular efforts, general survey of about 80 sq km of risk area is conducted per year. Professional inspection of humanitarian demining operations is conducted by inspection bodies of the Mine Action Centre. The total capacity of the Mine Action Centre is 5.200 inspections per year (including training of detection dogs, equipment and mine-machines and cleared area sampling) and up to 400 nal controls. Under normal conditions and within regular scope of activities, it amounts to 4.160 inspections and about 320 nal certications per year. The existing resources for professional inspection are sufcient for monitoring humanitarian demining operations conducted at about 7-8 sq km per year. Anything more than that requires an increase of capacities. Legal framework and mine action standardization in Bosnia and Herzegovina The following documents, apart from the international conventions and legislation, contain the legal basis for mine action in BiH: 1. General Framework Agreement for Peace in Bosnia and Herzegovina, 1995, Annex 1-A: Agreement on the military aspects of the peace agreement: Article 4, Paragraph 2 (d) and Article 5, Clause 2 and 3, in which the Parties are ordered to complete the following activities within 30 days after the Transfer of Authority:222 a. Remove, dismantle or destroy all mines, unexploded ordnance, and explosive devices from the zone of separation, as required by IFOR commander.
222

Dayton Peace Agreement, JPNIO Ofcial Gazette of RBiH, Sarajevo 1996, pages 1823.

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DEVELOPMENT OF MINE ACTION IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA

b. Mark all known mine emplacements, unexploded ordnance, explosive devices and demolitions within Bosnia and Herzegovina. c. Within 120 days the Parties shall furnish to the Joint Military Commission all information about mineelds. 2. Conclusions of the London Peace Implementation Conference, held in December 1996, Chapter: Mine removal, clause 18-20: Transfer of Authority from UN MAC to the national structure. 3. Law on demining in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Its adoption in February 2002 was a turning point in mine action. The transformation and stabilization of the entire structure in Bosnia and Herzegovina was achieved and the responsibility of all stakeholders was more prominently dened. The Law contains some deciencies in the part that deals with the rights of deminers, and all components of mine action operations have not been included. It is necessary to amend that part of the Law; otherwise, with its narrow framework it might become a constraint to the development of mine action in Bosnia and Herzegovina. 4. Standards for mine and UXO removal in Bosnia and Herzegovina, June 2002. They were harmonised with the international mine action standards in mid2003, when the Standing Operational Procedures for Humanitarian Demining were adopted. This document introduced cleared area sampling and establishing the level of quality assurance in the work of a demining organisation. 5. Standards for mine risk education in Bosnia and Herzegovina were adopted in June 2004. Their adoption marked the completion of the rst stage of regulating mine action activities. Mine action legislation is a complex area that, apart from the national legislation, involves the international legal regulations and mine action standardization. The development of standards, standing operational procedures and other technical regulations pertaining to mine action has gone beyound the legal framework. The present Demining Law of Bosnia and Herzegovina is outdated and slows or blocks the establishment of a positive legal environment for the further development of mine action. Harmonisation with the international conventions, the new policy of the UN and mine action international standards is a proper justication for improving the legislation. Delays in amending legislation will have a negative impact on the implementation of the adopted Mine Action Strategy for Bosnia and Herzegovina, in terms of the realisation of the strategic principles and goals connected with the rules governing the rights of mine victims and their families, and the mine action management at the political level and its long-term nancial consolidation. The biggests risks for the implementation of the Strategy are linked specically with nancial consolidation as the law did not regulate obligations and responsibilities of all government levels for 117

DARVIN LISICA

providing funds for the programme; at the strategic level, there is no dened policy or management mechanisms for approaching donors, collecting funds and distributing them. A consequece of that situation is an unstable budget, passive approach to donors and possible decline of interest in mine and ERW problem in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

5.2.

Humanitarian Demining Operations

General survey General survey as a process of collecting, processing, and evaluation of data, without applying demining methods and entering the suspected hazard area, is the base for preparing humanitarian demining projects. This concept of general survey was developed in Bosnia and Herzegovina in the period from 2000 to 2002. General survey was not described in the International Mine Action Standards. That is a consequence of abandoning the concept of general survey in international organisations in view of the prevailing opinion that it is only the rst stage of technical survey. In spite of that, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Croatia continued to develop general survey, as a fundamental process for detailed risk identication at mine suspected locations, thus increasing the efciency of its humanitarian demining operations and reducing its costs at the same time. In addition, general survey is conducted to reduce mine suspected area, being considered as an ancillary activity. In the process of collecting, processing and evaluation of data new facts are determined about mine and UXO hazards in a certain area. That produces a more accurate picture of the situation at a certain location, which usually results in suspected area reduction. The purpose of general survey is: (1) conducting surveys of new risk areas (hazard identication), preparing reports and project documents for humanitarian demining, (2) Repeating surveys of suspected areas in order to examine a current situation and review project documents, and (3) conducting survey in order to examine whether there is mine and UXO risk at the location identied for a specic humanitarian or developmental use. Technical survey Technical survey is conducted when general survey cannot produce enough elements to identify the mine and UXO hazard, in spite of serious indications of the hazard. It is an operation during which data are collected by physically entering the risk area and applying demining methods. Technical survey is conducted to conrm or to reject previous suspicions. If hazard is identied, the boundaries of the mineeld are

118

DEVELOPMENT OF MINE ACTION IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA

established and the area for clearing is dened. If the previous suspicions are rejected, the entire area is declared and certied as an area without identied risk. Hence, technical survey is of enormous importance for suspected area reduction, as a cheaper and quicker alternative to clearance procedures. Until 2004, technical survey was scarcely applied in the operations of reducing risk area to actually mined area. There are many reasons for that and the most important among them are: (1) the Standing Operational Procedures, which would provide for technical survey to be conducted in a uniform manner, had not been adopted, (2) Poor resource availability, especially in relation to machines (3) Weak interest of government and donors in providing funds for technical surveys. The insufcient application of technical survey in humanitarian demining operations caused two problems. The rst problem relates to the quality of humanitarian demining operations in view of that fact that areas were cleared without an adequate level of mine awareness. It was demonstrated through the reduction in number of detected mines and UXO per unit of cleared area, a signicant number of cleared locations where no single mine was found and the increase in costs of humanitarian demining operations. The second problem related to planning at the strategic and operational level. There was a lack of information on the actual size of mined areas and number of mines in them, so it was not possible to estimate the number of leftover mines and predict how much area for demining there will be in Bosnia and Herzegovina. They were hidden in the results of previous mine clearance operations. The problem is posed as to how it is possible to estimate the level of the hidden technical survey in mine clearance operations. The relationship between mine clearance and technical survey is an indicator that will serve as a basis for planning humanitarian demining operations and producing an estimate of the remaining mines and UXO. The following pages are an attempt to nd an answer to this question, by making comparative and statistical analysis of the clearance results. Mine and UXO clearance Until 2000, the development of mine action worldwide was aimed at improving the mine and UXO clearance situation. The situation was the same in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Mine and UXO clearance was the predominant activity of humanitarian demining as opposed to inadequate use of technical survey and marking. The Standing Operational Procedures for mine clearance are almost identical at any place in the world. Their basis is about disturbing the total surface soil layer, minimum 10 cm into the depth, regardless of mineeld records. That is done through manual detection, by using a prodder or detector, which is supposed to locate metal and non-metal mines. The application of these methods results in low productivity, which makes mine clearance the slowest and most expensive method of risk reduction. Some countries have established the practice of using animals for mine detection. The use of animals

119

DARVIN LISICA

for mine detection, in most of the cases dogs, has been regulated by the international mine action standards. Some African countries use big African rats and experimental tests with bees are being conducted. Mine and UXO clearance is not an efcient measure for risk management because there is no serious risk assessment and the level of risk acceptance is not determined, but instead, risk is totally eliminated. If lack of quality risk assessment and clear priority setting persists, then mine clearance, as an activity isolated from other mine action operations, may be a complete failure. There is no precise information as to the total amount of cleared area in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The Mine Action Centre possesses in its database accurate records for the period from 1999 to the end of 2005, when 33.6 sq km of the area were cleared, with the average size vaying from 4 to 6.5 sq km per year. The reduction of cleared area in 2004 is a consequence of the introduction of technical survey. Seasonal variations show that, basically for climatic reasons, the mine clearance season begins in April and ends late in November.

MINES,UXO

3,500

CLEARED AND TECHNICALLY SURVEYED AREA WITH THE NUMBER OF REMOVED MINES AND UXO

sqm
7,000,000

3,000

6,000,000

2,500

5,000,000

2,000

4,000,000

1,500

3,000,000

1,000

2,000,000

500

1,000,000

0 REMOVED MINES REMOVED UXO CLEARED AREA TECH. SURV. REDUCTION

1999 2,315 1,069 4,130,671

2000 2,517 3,121 4,657,835

2001 2,476 2,020 3,820,527

2002 2,074 1,630 6,316,243

2003 1,831 2,716 6,663,619

2004 3,031 1,391 4,113,346

2005 1,770 1,048 3,956,766

2,317,000 6,598,548 Source: Database of the B&H Mine Action Centre

Graph 26: Cleared area with the number of removed mines and UXO

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DEVELOPMENT OF MINE ACTION IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA

REMOVED MINES - PROPORTION OF MINES BY TYPES

ANTI-PERSONNEL PRESSURE MINES 69.38% ANTI-PERSONNEL BOUNDING MINES 3.56% DIRECTIONAL MINES 2.24%

ANTI-PERSONNEL FRAGMENTATION MINES 17.33% ANTI-PERSONNEL MINES OF UNKNOWN TYPE 0.43%

ANTI-TANK MINES 7.06%

Source:Database of the B&H Mine Action Centre

Graph 27: Removed mines proportion of mines by types, displayed as percentages

MINES,UXO/ha 8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 1999

AVERAGE NUMBER OF DETECTED MINES AND UXO PER UNIT AREA 7.37 6.70 6.48
MINES/ha UXO/ha

5.60

5.40 5.29 3.28 2.75 3.38 2.65 4.08 4.47

2.59

2.58

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Source: Database of the B&H Mine Action Centre

Graph 28: Average number of detected mines and UXO per unit of area

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An average of 4.76 mines was found per hectar223. Although the operations of general survey were signicantly improved, the number of mines per unit of cleared area kept decreasing year after year. There are many reasons for that, the most important being: (1) The priority setting system prompts clearing areas that are planned to be included in the process of return and reconstruction of the country regardless of the level of risk. (2) Moving from emergency to planned demining was possible because of inadequate level of humanitarian demining operations. The entire mineelds were not removed, but only the parts necessary for sustainable return of persons or reconstruction of a facility, according to assessments of local authorities. (3) The nature of the mine problem in Bosnia and Herzegovina represents an aggravating factor for humanitarian demining operations there is not enough information and it will be more and more difcult to detect mined areas. (4) Insufcient use of technical survey in humanitarian demining operations. The decreasing number of detected mines in clearance operations may be stopped only by ensuring that technical survey assumes a prominent place in humanitarian demining operations in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The introduction of technical survey in 2004 signicantly has inuence to increasing number of detected mines during the clearance. In 2003, there were on average only 2.75 mines per hectare, and in 2004 this number increased by almost three times, amounting to 7.37 mines per hectare. Reasons for decreasing number of detected mines in 2005 are in insufcient general survey capacity of BHMAC. There where not enough teams for general survey of new hazard locations and revision of old projects, which had negative inuence to quality of project documentation for mine clearance. Retaining a larger number of detected mines per hectare will depend, among other issues, on the success in mine hazard identication and the quality of project documents. Another important factor that may have an impact is the priority setting system. There needs to be balance between demining of those locations that are important for socioeconomic development and those that do not have any special purpose of use, but represent a source of hazard to human life and health. The achieved results in the operations of UXO removal are seen as an ancillary phenomenon, which is not a result of the successful planning efforts. Around 12
223

See Graph 28 : Average number of detected mines and UXO per one unit of area

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DEVELOPMENT OF MINE ACTION IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA

thousand pieces of UXO, found in mineelds, were removed in the period 1996-2004. There is no systematic risk assessment for the areas where UXO only is expected to be found, and the procedures for removing UXO from the areas of combat activities have not been developed . That is an aggravating element for mine action management in Bosnia and Herzegovina, but it has not been seriously analyzed. The beginning of large public works in Bosnia and Herzegovina, such as highway construction, will highlight this issue. Calculation of the relationship between technical survey and mine and UXO clearance in Bosnia and Herzegovina According to Standing Operational Procedures, technical survey reduces mine suspected areas to the point where rst mines or remnants of explosive ordnance are found. Hence, technical survey does not involve entering a mined area, but establishing its boundaries. The mined area is expanded to include a 5-metre wide belt surrounding its external boundaries where, for security reasons, mine and UXO clearance operations will be conducted. The calculation of the relationship between technical survey and clearance in humanitarian demining operations included 1784 clearance tasks from the beginning of 1999 until the end of 2005, which are kept in the archive and database of the Mine Action Centre in Bosnia and Herzegovina.224 The analysis was based on an assumption that cleared areas were previously subject to technical survey operations. By means of the number of detected mines, size of cleared area and the knowledge of the average density of mines in mineelds by types, it will be calculated how big the actually mined area was. The surface of the additional 5-metre belt for clearing depends on the shape of the polygon, i.e. the length of boundary or perimeter of the actual mineeld. Another assumption is that the standing operational procedures were fully complied with and all detected mines were reported. Otherwise, there would be an increase of the total mined area, mathematically calculated. Taking into account the quality control system of humanitarian demining and the quality level in demining organisations, it may be accepted that there was no major breach of the prescribed standards pertaining to the removal and reporting of detected mines.

224

Early in 2003, I conducted a similar study of the relationship between technical survey and clearance, relating to the period from 2000 to 2003, with its results published in a study: Strategic Analysis of Mine Action in Bosnia and Herzegovina, prepared by Darvin Lisica and David Rowe for the review of mine action strategy. The timelines here were extended to the period 1999-2005, and substantially enlarged in terms of the number of the analysed data.

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5m

REDUCED BY TECHNICAL SURVEY MINED AREA ADDITIONAL AREA TO BE CLEARED

Graphic 9: Sketch of risk area reduced by technical survey

PERIMETER (km) 16
14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 0.000

DEPENDENCY OF PERIMETER ON THE SIZE OF CLEARED AREAS

y = 9.8817x0.5548 R2 = 0.7671

AREA (sqkm) 0.050 0.100 0.150 0.200 0.250 0.300

Graph 29: Dependency of perimeter on the size of cleared areas

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DEVELOPMENT OF MINE ACTION IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA

The third assumption is that the mineelds in Bosnia and Herzegovina consist of loosely distributed mines, with the low mine density in the mineelds, as shown by the general assessment of mine situation. The sketch of risk area reduction225 shows that the area, which could be reduced by technical survey, may be calculated if the mined area and 5 metre-wide belt, which is also cleared, are deducted from the overall cleared area. It is mathematically illustrated in the following equation:

EQUATION 1:

Pti=Pc- (Pmp+ Pdp)=Pc- (Pmp+ p x 5)

Where: Pti - area reduced by technical survey Pc - actually cleared area Pmp mineeld area calculated on the basis of the number of detected mines Pdp - additional area to be cleared p - perimeter

The area size of a mineeld Pmp is calculated according to the number of detected mines and standard density of certain types of mines in a mineeld. The area size of the additional belt to be cleared Pdp is calculated indirectly, through the function of dependency of the perimeter on the mineeld size. A roughly accurate calculation of it can be made through the analysis of all 3199 vector polygons in the cleared locations found at the cartographic part of the database of the Mine Action Centre in Bosnia and Herzegovina.226 Perimeter (lenght of the boundary of polygon) and area are dened for each of the vector records. If perimeter is considered as a dependent variable y (km), and area is considered as an independent variable x (sq km), their inter-relationship is calculated according to the equation of the regression line, described by a second-order parabola.227
225 226

See Graphic 9: Sketch of risk area reduction by technical survey

Data obtained through statistical analysis of the tasks are in the appendices to the masters thesis, Table 31: Estimate of the area for technical survey based on the information on cleared locations in the period 1999-2004. See Graph 29: Dependency of perimeter on the size of cleared areas

227

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DARVIN LISICA

The previous graph shows a distinctive grouping of results. The equation of the regression line y is represented by perimeter. If its value x is substituted by the calculated mined area Pmp, it will result in an equation for the perimeter of the mined area.

p=9,8817 x Pmp0,5548

By inserting the equation for the perimeter p in the EQUATION 1 for calculating the hypothetical area Pti for reduction by technical survey, the following equation will be produced:

EQUATION 2:

Pti=Pc- (Pmp+ 9,8817 x Pmp0,5548 x 5)

How acceptable this equation is for the reconstruction of indicators for calculating the area of technical survey may be checked the other way round. The equation of the regression line y is, instead of x, entered the known areas for 3199 polygons of cleared areas, whose records are kept in the database of the Mine Action Centre in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The calculated perimeter is worked out, which will then be compared with the actual value of perimeter in the database. Comparison is made between the values of the actual and calculated perimeter for cleared areas, with the values of the actual perimeter being within two standard deviations in relation to the average value. This practically means that perimeters no bigger than 3 km were taken into account, which eliminates from analysis very elongated facilities (such as power transmission lines, roads) that are not important for the analysis of technical survey, because experience shows that mineelds do not follow power transmission lines or communications. The estimate shows that 95% of the areas in the database have a perimeter no bigger than 3 km. By comparing the actual measured and calculated perimeter at the cleared locations, the following conclusions may be drawn. 1) The average size of the calculated perimeter is 1.98 % less than the actual measured perimeter. 2) The standard deviation of the calculated perimeter is 1.95 % less than the actual measured perimeter. 3) Pearsons correlation coefcient between the actual measured and calculated perimeter is 0.701, which indicates that there is a high correlation between the results. 126

DEVELOPMENT OF MINE ACTION IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA

These calculations show that accuracy, which is achieved by the application of the equation of the regression line in measuring the area for technical survey, is acceptable for planning at the strategic and operational level. An analysis of the operations of humanitarian demining for 1999-2005 shows that there is a signicant portion of cleared area in which no mine was found.228 Its share varied from 14% to 30.4%. The reason is in the nature of emergency operations of humanitarian demining and the method of setting priorities, where the return of land to the beneciaries was the priority rather than reduction of the level of risk.
CALCULATION OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CLEARANCE AND TECHNICAL SURVEY, BASED ON THE NUMBER OF DETECTED MINES AT DEMINED LOCATIONS 100% 90% 80% 70%
CALCULATED AREA TO BE CLEARAED OF MINES REMAINING CALCULATED AREA FOR TECHNICAL SURVEY CLEARED AREA WITH NO MINES DETECTED AREA AT WHICH TECHNICAL SURVEY WAS CONDUCTED

21.22%

20.98%

22.48%

17.95%

16.11%

19.34%

12.67%

21.24% 32.77% 3.58%

60%

47.18%
50% 40% 30% 20%

54.22%

61.67% 11.86%
62.51%

61.81%

64.99%

30.35%
10% 0% 1999 2000 2001

36.03%

27.84%

16.97%

22.22%

14.03%
2002 2003 2004 2005

Graph 30: Estimate of the possible relationship between clearance and technical survey, based on the number of detected mines at demined locations

Another important reason is that with the elapse of time after the cessation of war, it will be more difcult to identify mineelds. Therefore, the importance of technical survey will become more pronounced in the future operations of humanitarian demining, becoming more prevalent than mine clearance. Additionally, analysis shows that technical survey in all operations conducted at the risk areas will incrase up to 80%.
228

See Graph 30: Estimate of the possible relationship between clearance and technical survey, based on the number of detected mines at demined locations

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This was observed already in 2003, after the planning policy was changed, the Standing Operational Procedures for technical survey were adopted, and the staff was subject to additional training. Along with the national authorities, donors also accepted a concept in which technical survey occupied a central place. Marking mine suspected areas Two types of marking of mine suspected areas are applied in Bosnia and Herzegovina229. Those are emergency marking, used as part of mine risk education, and permanent marking of mine suspected areas. In the course of 2002 preliminary but insufcient marking operations were commenced. The activities of emergency marking are implemented as part of mine risk education and general survey and represent an efcient measure for risk reduction. The activities of emergency marking are different from the activities of permanent marking in the sense that the signs are smaller in size and less resistant to weathering impacts and other damages. Emergency signs are used to mark a suspected area partly, while permanent marking is usually used to mark one or more suspected areas as a whole and includes barrier fencing. The number of signs placed as part of emergency marking has increased bigger year by year. 1,103 signs were placed in 2002, 2,897 signs in 2003, 8,903 emergency signs in 2004 and 7,345 marking signs were placed in 2005. The average number is 3.5 signs per location, which is around 5,700 or 46 % of the partially marked mine suspected locations until the end of 2004.

PERMANENT MARKING OF SUSPECTED AREA NUMBER OF MARKED LOCATIONS LENGTH OF THE PERMANENTLY SET FENCE NUMBER OF THE SELFSTANDING SIGNS TOTAL AVERAGE PER LOCATION TOTAL AVERAGE PER LOCATION

2002 5

2003 20

2004 19

2005 130 85.82 1165 8.96

2,707 11,063 0 0.00 91 4.55

7,790 11,157 248 13.05

541.40 553.15 410.00

Table 8: Results of permanent marking of mine suspected areas

Taking into account that fact that signs become dilapidated and are continually illegally removed, it may be estimated that this type of partial marking can be found at nearly 20 % of mine suspected locations.
229

Apart from these two types of marking, semi-permanent marking is conducted at the locations where demining activities have been suspended, while delimiting site marking is conducted at demining sites, in line with security standards.

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DEVELOPMENT OF MINE ACTION IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA

The new regulation enabled that emergency signs are placed by accredited demining organisations and organisations for mine risk education. Hence, it is to be expected that the set plan will be implemented. Permanent marking is a part of humanitarian demining operations. It is conducted as a separate activity or as an activity that follows technical survey and clearance operations. This type of marking is done at mine suspected areas that do not represent a demining priority in the next ve years. The materials and method for placing signs make them sustainable for a longer period of time. Although permanent marking is a cheap and very efcient operation of risk control, it has not been applied adequately. The donors who through the UNDP provided initial funds for marking in 2002 and 2003, expect also that marking will principally become the responsibility of municipalities and cantons. Unfortunately, only the Sarajevo Canton, Tuzla Canton and Posavina Canton and their municipalities allocated funds from their budgets for marking in 2004.230

5.3.

Mine and UXO risk education

Development of mine risk education Mine risk education, along with humanitarian demining, is a part of mine action operations aimed at risk reduction. Humanitarian demining is aimed at risk reduction by eliminating the source of risk mines and mineelds, while mine risk education deals with the social dimension of the problem with individuals and groups at risk. It consists of three main elements: public information, training for children and adults and liaising with the affected communities. All three elements of mine risk education have been developed in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Those elements, however, have not been developed at the same time and to the same extent. In the period from 1996 to 2002, public information dissemination and education of children were the main activities that were conducted, mainly in urban communities. The year of 2001 in particular was signicant for this approach. Intensive programmes that involved children and teachers, organised by the International Committee of Red Cross and entity-level associations of the Red Cross, were accompanied by a media campaign aimed at disseminating messages on mine risk education. The messages that were targeted at children involved three elements: animated videos, support materials and special programmes. Studies show that media campaigns raise childrens awareness and knowledge of mines. Television has a major impact on children, and particulary those childrens programmes in which messages on mine risk education are successfully
230

Early in 2004, the Mine Action Centre addressed letters to all mine-affected municipalities to express their interest in tackling the problem. Unfortunately, only 8 municipalities were interested to cooperate, and two municipalities said they were not interested.

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incorporated. The ndings of studies show that media, in combination with other education programmes, primarily with school and out-of-school activities aimed at protection of children against mines and UXO, play an important role in mine risk reduction231 The results of the media campaign were limited in comparison to the invested funds. The consequences of the war, poverty, destroyed infrastructure were limiting elements to the impact of public information on the most affected groups of children, i.e. those living in rural communities, with the most visible consequences of war and the largest number of children returnees. In 2002, the Federation Ministry of Education, Science, Culture and Sports issued a teaching plan dealing with protection against mines and UXO.232 Unfortunately, there were some difculties to introduce it into regular education classrooms because of the disunion in the educational policy in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The year of 2003 was marked by a process of review and revision providing a turning point in the planning and organisation of mine risk education programmes. In that year the International Committee of Red Cross conducted a survey among 1.546 interviewees, using the random sampling method among 6 population groups233, in 3 types of environment (mine and UXO-affected areas where the Red Cross implements its programme, mine and UXO-affected areas where the Red Cross does not implement the programme and control areas that are not mine and UXO-contaminated).234 In spite of the deciencies found in some of its parts (signicant number of suggestive questions, efforts made during the survey were not accompanied by adequate data processing and ndings), the study conrmed some of the previous experiences. On one hand, the work with children was relatively good, especially within the school system, but on the other hand, the work with adults did not receive enough attention, especially with adult males as the most highly affected group. The Mine Action Centre in Bosnia and Herzegovina assumed the responsibility for managing the process at the state level in mid-2002. The rst step was setting up a body in charge of organising the activities. Two main coordination bodies were established: (1) the Mine Risk Education Policy Board of Bosnia and Herzegovina, consisting of members of national and international organisations and institutions that shape the policy of and provide support to mine risk education programmes, and (2) an Implementation Group consisting of representatives of all organisations that implement mine risk education projects. The main task of the bodies was to establish regular coordination, exchange of information, joint system of training and to avoid unnecessary overlapping and prepare conditions for adopting the mine risk education strategy.
231 232 233 234

More details in: Results of the Survey Examining the Effects of the Mines Awareness Campaign Final report, conducted by Prism Research Sarajevo for UNDP, 2001, pages 8 and 9. Teaching plan Protection against Mines and Other Explosive Ordnance for Primary and Secondary Schools, Federation Ministry of Education, Science, Culture and Sports, Sarajevo, 2002. Number of interviewees per group: adults -1213, foresters and lumbermen -67, hunters and shermen -90, mine risk education trainers -26, returnees-75, school age children-75.

Knowledge, Attitude and Practices Survey, International Committee of Red Cross, Sarajevo, 2003, pages 2-6.

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A comprehensive mine risk education analysis was completed in mid-2004.235 The most relevant policy ndings were: (1) Inadequate control of mine risk education activities carried out in BiH has a negative impact on the population and the credibility of the implementing agent; (2) Limited resources and lack of new ideas may have a negative impact on the implementation of activities and future nancial support; (3) Typical messages on mine risk education do not have a strong inuence on the affected population; (4) Pressed with their existential reasons, the affected groups avoid main rules and security measures (5) Socioeconomic circumstances in the country (number of displaced persons, poverty, reconstruction, long process of humanitarian demining) increase the need for a more operational and higher quality mine risk education programme. The transformation of the mine risk education process was concluded in the period from 2002 to 2004. The adoption of the Mine Risk Education Strategy and Mine Risk Education Standards for BiH was completed. The system that opened up new possibilities was prepared; it became acceptable to donors and more rational and efcient for Bosnia and Herzegovina. The present tendencies show that the system will be developed towards active involvement of those communities taking measures of protection against mines and UXO. The involvement of the organisations that support the development of civil society will contribute to the success of future programmes and increase the resistance of at-risk groups of population. It is necessary to train them and coordinate their activities, as well as to establish the process of planning based on a better exchange of information, exibility and partnership. Those requirements have to be accompanied by the establishment of measures for quality control and the development of standing operational procedures. Analysis of the content of mine risk education messages Mine risk education messages in Bosnia and Herzegovina are designed and set to change the behaviour of the affected groups. This behaviouristic approach in mine risk education is present in most of the mine risk education programmes in the world. Attaching too much importance to the power of messages was so pronounced that UNICEF tried to standardize them worldwide in 1999. This concept itself rst came under question in 2002. A study on mine awareness communication, which was prepared by the Geneva International Centre for Humanitarian Demining, identies the shortcomings of that concept. Its ndings reveal that raising the level of knowledge and awareness of mine and UXO risk and the need for mine-safe behaviour will not necessarily lead
235 A Strategic Mine Risk Education Analysis was prepared by Sauvage E. and Srni Vukovi S., hired by the UNICEF in BiH, upon request of the Mine Action Centre. The results of the mine risk education strategy are included in the mine action strategic analysis.

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to the change of risk behaviour.236 Another important nding of the study is that little attention is paid to communication channels and message communication means and that messages are not pretested and tested in the eld. That reduces the effects that messages may have on the change of behaviour. Rudi Stojak believes that content is the most important element in the communication process, and that the analysis of content is an unavoidable method in the interpretation of messages.237 Therefore, it is important to make an analysis of the content of messages used in mine risk education programmes in Bosnia and Herzegovina. 187 of those messages were recorded from 1996 to mid-2005.238 Two thirds of them were prepared before 2001, after which the intensity decreased. It was not because of lack of ideas, but because of the changed concept of mine risk education, in which messages are not the main instrument for risk reduction. Best represented are printed media for dissemination of information, including brochure and leaet, altogether accounting for 60% of all media.239 Those are cheap and small media, adjustable to various affected communities, which contain not only mine risk education messages but also other information useful for the affected population. In this case it was not possible to make a quantitative analysis of the number of distributed copies because the information possessed by mine risk education organisations was incomplete. Mine risk education messages contain mainly four types of words and phrases.240 They involve hazard and its causes, consequences of activation, commanding phrases and basic social values. Most common are phrases that mention hazard and source of hazard, while phrases pertaining to consequences are less common. In any case, the majority of experts believe that describing the effects of explosion should be avoided in written messages and pictures. Most commonly used in various contexts is the word mine, whose frequency of occurrence in the messages is 65.78%. The term unexploded explosive ordnance in all contexts is less common, accounting for 11.23%. In 6.95% of the messages the abbreviation UXO is used, which is an adequate term for experts, but not for the population.

236 237 238 239 240

Communication in Mine Awareness Programmes, Geneva International Centre for Humanitarian Demining (GICHD), Geneva, 2002, pages 3-11. Rudi Stojak: Metoda analize sadraja (The Method of Content Analysis), Sarajevo, 1990, page 8. The messages were collected via e-mail from all organisations that conducted mine risk education projects in BiH. See Graph 31: Creation of mine risk education messages per years. See Graph 32. Representation of printed media that contain mine risk education messages See Table 9: Analysis of the content of mine risk education messages in BiH

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CREATION OF MINE RISK EDUCATION MESSAGES PER YEAR

2004 12.43% 2003 2.16%

2005 1.08%

1996 1.62% 1997 21.62%

2002 6.49%

2001 8.65%

1998 15.68%

2000 16.22%

1999 14.05%

Graph 31: Creation of mine risk education messages per year

REPRESENTATION OF PRINTED MEDIA CONTAINING MINE RISK EDUCATION MESSAGES IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA Instruction for protection against mines 1.60% Badges 0.53%

Instructor's guidebook 13.30%

T-shirts 1.06%

Colouring book 2.13%

Schedule of classes 1.06%

Notebook Picture book 1.06% 0.53% Invitation 0.53% Poster 14.36%

Brochure 34.57%

Agriculture tools 0.53%

Pencil 0.53% Notice board 0.53% Mirko magazine 0.53%

Calendar 0.53%

Report 0.53%

Leaflet 26.06%

Graph 32: Representation of printed media containing mine risk education messages

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CONTENT ANALYSISI OF MINE RISK EDUCATION MESSAGES GROUP OF WORDS, EXPRESSIONS

BROJ PONAVLJANJA

WORD, EXPRESSION

ABOUT HAZARD AND CAUSES OF HAZARD

ABOUT CONSEQENCIES

COMMANDS

ABOUT SOCIAL VALUES

mines weapons UXO unexploded ordnance mined minefield hazard AVERAGE victims injures kill lose death assisstance help! AVERAGE Stay, away! No access! Attention! Never....! Don't try! Don't touch! Caution! AVERAGE protection safe life take care of signs children adults women, mothers parents AVERAGE

123 1 13 8 3 9 13 24.29 10 3 10 4 0 8 4 5.57 7 7 10 16 1 11 14 9.43 2 19 12 7 7 11 1 0 1 6.67

65.78% 0.53% 6.95% 4.28% 1.60% 4.81% 6.95% 12.99% 5.35% 1.60% 5.35% 2.14% 0.00% 4.28% 2.14% 2.98% 3.74% 3.74% 5.35% 8.56% 0.53% 5.88% 7.49% 5.04% 1.07% 10.16% 6.42% 3.74% 3.74% 5.88% 0.53% 0.53% 4.01%

Table 9: Analysis of the content of mine risk education messages in BiH

Of the groups of words pertaining to mine and UXO consequences, the word casualty is most frequently used. The group of commanding phrases is the second most common. The most frequently used commanding phrases are Never .... and Beware, then Look out and Do not touch. Of the words and phrases referring to social values, the word safe is most commonly used. Apart from the word children, other affected groups are inadequately represented in the messages, while women as an affected group are not mentioned at 134

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DEVELOPMENT OF MINE ACTION IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA

all. The reason for that is the fact the majority of the messages is aimed at children or refers to care for children. From the aspect of risk management theory, the focus should be placed on the change of perception instead on the change of behaviour. Perception of mine and UXO risk is a source of risk behaviour. It is not yet evaluated enough in the preparation of messages and other information designed in Bosnia and Herzegovina. A conclusion may be drawn that these messages are difcult to standardize. They represent a problem for making risk assessment in the context of demographic, cultural, religious and other factors, which have specic nature in any local community and for any affected group.

5.4.

Assistance to mine and UXO victims

Assistance to mine victims, their rehabilitation and reintegration into the Bosnian and Herzegovinan society is a part of the accepted mine action policy and its strategic vision. The strategic analysis, providing an account of the situation of that time, was completed late in 2003.241 The most signicant results in providing assistance to mine victims were achieved by the non-government sector, including the following nongovernment organisations: Landmine Survivors Network BiH (LSN), Hope 87 and Jesuit Refugee Service International-JRS. The LSN, as the largest organisation by the scope of its activities, plans to provide long-term assistance to mine victims in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The other two organisations nished their programmes in the rst half of 2005 because of lack of funds. The Slovenian International Trust for Demining and Mine Victim Assistance (ITF) is one of the main sources of support to the programmes that are implemented in Bosnia and Herzegovina. There are enough potential capacities for the rehabilitation of mine victims. There are 7 rehabilitation centres, 7 thermal resorts and 60 community-based rehabilitation centres (CBR) providing physical therapy. Apart from the community-based rehabilitation centres, mental health centres also were established (60 centres). In addition, there are three psychiatric hospitals providing mental health care. The number of 27 orthopaedic and prothetic workshops is sufcient. Their activities are limited because of lack of funds. It is necessary to conduct an additional survey of the quality of services they provide, but the quality standards have not yet been elaborated and adopted. The Mine Action Centre in Bosnia and Herzegovina established a coordination group for mine victim assistance. The main task of the group is the cooperation among
241

Late in 2003, the non-government organisation Handicap International completed a research, ordered by the UNICEF, to be used by the Mine Action Centre in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The results of the research were published early in 2005 under the title: A Working Document for Support to the Development of a Detailed Report on the Long- term Landmine Victim Assistance Strategy, Sarajevo, 2004, page 37.

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various organisations, evaluation of new projects and implementation of the strategic and operational goals. A special Mine Victim Assistance Strategy was adopted for the period 2005-2009. In the forthcoming period, the socioeconomic integration of victims will be the most serious problem. Studies show that victims nd their economic independence as the most important element, while the need for health protection comes in the third place. In addition, little has been done to provide assistance to blind adult mine victims.242

5.5.

Impact of mine action operations on the implementation of Annex 7: The Agreement on Refugees and Displaced Persons of the Dayton peace Agreement

The war in Bosnia and Herzegovina has left huge consequences for all segments of social and economic life. One of the largest consequences is demographic change that is reected in the population decrease, change of ethnic composition and migration of people from their places of residence. Around 200 thousand people were killed in the war, and around 17 thousand people are registered as missing. 1.2 million people left Bosnia and Herzegovina and took refuge in over 100 countries of the world. There are around 1 million internally displaced persons, of which one third of those displaced are within the pre-war domicile municipalities that were divided into new administrative units after the war. In total 2.2 million people were moved from their places of residence, which accounts for more than one half of the pre-war population of Bosnia and Herzegovina. The return of people to their pre-war places of residence has not yet been completed. There are about half a million refugees still living in 40 countries of the world. The return of internally displaced persons has not been completedt. Over 185 thousand persons or about 60 thousand families make up the displaced population.243 452 thousand housing units were partly or totally destroyed in Bosnia and Herzegovina, with the level of devastation accounting for 78 %, compared to the prewar situation. By the end of 2005, something more than 260 thousand housing units were reconstructed. Approximately 187 thousand housing units or 42.06 % have not been reconstructed, and 120 thousand persons wait for their reconstruction.244 Even
242 243

Assistance to Mine Victims in BiH, A Working Document for Support to the Development of a Detailed Report on the Long- term Landmine Victim Assistance Strategy, Sarajevo, 2004, page 37. Mario Nenadi and others: Uporedna analiza pristupa pravima izbjeglica i raseljenih osoba (A Comparative Analysis of the Approach to the Rights of Refugees and Displaced Persons), Ministry for Human Rights and Refugees of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Sarajevo, 2005, pages 45-51. Same, pages 73-139.

244

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DEVELOPMENT OF MINE ACTION IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA

ten years after the signing of the Dayton Peace Agreement, the implementation of its Annex 7 (Agreement on refugees and dsiplaced persons) has not been completed. Mine action efforts in Bosnia and Herzegovina were principally directed toward the return of refugees and displaced persons. The priority setting system is organised so that the reconstruction of houses, infrastructure, the use of agricultural land and other conditions necessary for sustainable return are considered as the rst category of the priorities for humanitarian demining. The analysis of the results of humanitarian demining from 1999 to 2005 show that 55 to 75 % of the demined area every year was directly connected with the return of people (sustainable return, reconstruction of housing units and reconstruction of the infrastructure of settlements and utility facilities).245 The remaining demined area was also connected with the safety of people and prevention of negative socioeconomic consequences of mines and UXO. 2.817 houses were cleared of mines and UXO from 1999 until the end of 2005. The dynamics of clearing houses of mines went in line with the dynamics of the return of people. The number of mine and UXO-cleared houses kept decreasing after 2002 not because of the change in the priority policy of humanitarian demining, but because of the decreasing number of requests of beneciaries.246 The changes in demined-land use and the reduced number of cleared houses correspond to the general trend of the return of people, which has begun to abate. It is to be expected that demining in the coming years will relate more to economic development, improved standards of living and personal safety. Along with clearing houses of mines and UXO for the purpose of reconstruction, over 10.5 sq km of their plots were demined.247 Until 2000, demining of the plots included the safety belt around the household facilities necessary for their reconstruction. The pressing necessity and use of donations for the reconstruction of facilities were the prevailing criteria for determining the size of the area to be demined. There was a large number of houses to be cleared with limited demining capacities. After 2000, there was a change in the priority policy and planning of humanitarian demining. A signicantly larger area surrounding houses was demined, which increased the safety of returnees and created better conditions for the use of land and other facilities of the family household. The estimate of the funds spent for demining houses and their plots varies from 36 to 40 million convertible marks in the period 1999-2005.248
245 246 247 248

See Graph 33: Use of restored land following humanitarian demining in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

See Graph 34: Number of houses cleared of mines and UXO in relation to the return of people, results in Bosnia and Herzegovina from 1999 to 2005. See Graph 35: Demined area with houses, results in BiH from 1999 to 2005. The estimate was made on the basis of the average demining costs per year, as illustrated in a publication: Mine Action Strategic Analysis for BiH, page 54, by Lisica D. and Rowe D.

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100% 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%

USE OF RESTORED LAND FOLLOWING HUMANITARIAN DEMINING

Other Exploatation and maintenance of forests Stimulate tourism Stimulate employment Reconstruction of educational, cultural and religous facilities Passable communications (roads, rails, bridges, ports) Construction of telecommunication facilities River regulation, reconstruction of channels and embankments Water supply Launch industrial production Reconstruction of powertransmission lines and other power industry facilities Restore agricultural land Reconstruction of the infrastructure of settlements and municipal facilities Reconstruction of housing units Sustainable return

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Graph 33: Use of restored land following humanitarian demining in BiH from 1999 to 2005

138

2005

Source: Database of the B&H Mine Action Centre

DEVELOPMENT OF MINE ACTION IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA

Number of cleared houses 700 650 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0

NUMBER OF CLEARED HOUSES IN RELATION TO THE RETURN OF PEOPLE

Number of returnees 140,000 130,000 120,000

Number of cleared houses Return of people

110,000 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Source: Database of the B&H Mine Action Centre and B&H Ministry of Human Rights and Refugees

Graph 34: Number of houses cleared of mines and UXO in relation to the return of people, results in BiH from 1999 to 2005

Demined area (sqm)

DEMINED AREA WITH HOUSES, RESULT IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA, FROM 1999 TO 2005 2,154,408

Average demined area per one house (sqm/house) 8,000

2,400,000 2,100,000 1,800,000 1,500,000 1,200,000 900,000 600,000 300,000 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Demined area with houses Average demined area per one house Source: Database of the B&H Mine Action Centre

2,111,586 1,755,187

7,000

1,677,604

6,496 5,162
1,091,405 975,673

6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0

5,394 4,240
899,125

3,940

4,183

1,315

Graph 35: Demined area with houses, results in BiH from 1999 to 2005

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6.

MINE ACTION PLANNING IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA

6.1.

Mine action strategic planning in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Development of strategic planning in Bosnia and Herzegovina The development of mine action strategic planning in Bosnia and Herzegovina began in 2002. A draft Demining Strategy for Bosnia and Herzegovina was prepared in April 2002, for 2002-2010. The draft was based on the UN Mine Action Strategy 2001- 2005; the Demining Law of Bosnia and Herzegovina; commitments taken over from the Ottawa Convention to ban the use, production, storage and transfer of antipersonnel mines and their destruction and other international conventions; the International Mine Action Standards; available information on the mine situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina; available mine action capacities and previous practice. The process of adoption of the rst strategy was relatively long. The Commission for Demining and the Board of Donors supported it, and the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina did so no soner than 15 April 2003, when it held its tenth session. In spite of the terminological inconsistency, this document includes other mine action components too.249 It planned that mine contaminated land from the rst group of priorities is fully cleared of mines,250 that the land from the second group of priorities is partially reduced and fully marked and that the way of peoples access to the land from the third group of priorities is marked by 2010. In that way a signicant portion of land would be returned to people, the conditions for normal life would be created and the mine-impact would be signicantly smaller. Intensive mine risk education activities would be implemented simultaneously. The estimated funds for the implementaton of the strategy amounted to ca. 333,800.000 US$,251 the majority of which should be provided through donations. Strategically, this planning document largely depended on the support of donors. It was based on the existing capacities and the required level of operations of humanitarian demining. There was no serious nancial analysis to put the Stategy into a practical framework, which would be accompanied by the readiness of donors and capacities of Bosnia and Herzegovina to support the strategic plan. Uncertain funding and dependency on donors were signicant reasons leading to the 2003/2004 revision of the Strategy. In the process of revising the Strategy, the strategic plan was harmonised
249 250

Terminological inconsistency resulted from the terminology of the BiH Demining Law - the title of the Strategy includes only one mine action component: demining. There are three categories of priorities: the 1st category includes locations used on a daily basis, reconstruction of housing stock, infrastructure and economic resources; the 2nd category includes locations occasionally used and those connected with the locations from the 1st category, agricultural and forest land; the 3rd category includes other land. The Demining Strategy for Bosnia and Herzegovina to 2010.

251

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with the results of the landmine impact survey in Bosnia and Herzegovina, completed in December 2003. The level of humanitarian demining operations in the course of 2002 and 2003 signicantly deviated from the strategic plan for these years. The quantity of clearance operations was not adequate, and there was almost no technical survey. The only success was the reduction of suspected area in the course of general survey. The process of mine action integration in the PRSP process began in October 2002.252 Mine action operations became an integral part of the Long-term Development Strategy of BiH PRSP, as one of the sector priorities.253 Together with the elements taken over from the Strategic Plan, in the way they are described in the BiH Demining Strategy, the following problems were identied: (1) Discrepancy between real needs of BiH and material resources of the country to support the required dynamics and mine action process. (2) Inadequate cooperation with other sectors, in vertical and horizontal lines, was a key problem, which absorbed all other problems. Although ...the problem of demining by its nature has a major impact on other sectors and represents a signicant limiting factor. Other sectors do not show enough interest in this problem, insisting, mainly on an ad hoc basis, on emergency demining requests to implement reconstruction projects of some sector capacities.254 (3) Inadequate response of the government bodies at all levels, which are supposed to assume full responsibility for the mine action operations. (4) Financial problems. Solving the problem of landmines is a precondition for return, reconstruction and development. The International Community has foreseen in its plans the transfer of the complete funding responsibility to the local authorities and sources. This is a gradual process, but the authorities in BiH have not yet responded appropriately.255 The process of revising the strategy, which began late in August 2003, was also expected to solve the problems dened in the Long-term Development Strategy. The following fundamental principles adopted by the Demining Commission in Bosnia and Herzegovina were the starting points: 1) Harmonisation with the UN Mine Action Strategy 2002-2005 and the strategies of other international organisations.
252

N.B. A three member coordinating team participated in the preparation of the sector priority and mine action plan, consisting of a representative of each entity and one from the state level. I was the state-level representative in the team and coordinator of activities. The Long-term Development Strategy of BiH PRSP (2004-2007), page 262. Same, page 262. Same, page 263.

253 254 255

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2) Continuity with the present positive practice. The mine action structure had been developed in Bosnia and Herzegovina and showed many positive characteristics in its capacity for coordination and quality control.. 3) The Strategy being based upon the expressed needs and international obligations taken over by Bosnia and Herzegovina, balanced with the available demining and other capacities, economic capacities of the country and readiness of the International Community to support nancially mine action operations in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The fulllment of this requirement was the main problem for the successful revision of the Strategy. 4) Orientation toward local communities and their priorities for the reduction of socioeconomic impact of risk. The fulllment of this requirement entailed the need to incorporate into the Strategy the development of evaluation system and planning tasks for the affected community and to improve the priority setting process, and establish a stronger integration of all mine action components. 5) Reliance on science and results of scientically veried mine action studies. A structure for the strategy revision was established, consisting of a group for strategic planning and a working group for strategic planning. The group for strategic planning consisted of256 representatives and organisations that inuence the implementation of mine action operations in Bosnia and Herzegovina through their decisions or policy. The tasks of the group for strategic planning were: monitoring the process of revision and activities of expert bodies, evaluation and adoption of the most optimal strategic option and giving recommendations to the Demining Commision to adopt the revised mine action strategy. The working group for strategic planning consisted257 of representatives of the most important organisations and institutions involved in the operations of humanitarian demining and other mine action operations. The working group was an expert body tasked to assist the Mine Action Centre of BiH in the process of revising the Strategy. The working group for strategic planning established its sub-groups for drafting special strategies for assistance to mine victims and mine risk education. The tasks of the working group for strategic planning were: (1) revision of the mission, vision and strategic goals; (2) analysis of interest groups and, internal and external environment; (3) analysis of the results achieved within sub-groups and their adoption; (4) evaluation of strategic options, (5) analysis of the proposal for the strategic plan
256

Members of the group for strategic planning: the BH Demining Commission as a chair-body and representatives of the UNDP, UNICEF, OHR, SFOR, European Commission, BH Ministry of Defence and BH Mine Action Centre. Members of the working group for strategic planning: the BH Mine Action Centre, chairing meetings and performing technical activities, and representatives of the Civil Protections of the entities, representatives of the non-government organisations Norwegian peoples Aid, Intersos, HELP and Handicap International, representatives of the International Trust Fund, advisors and recruited technical consultants, as members.

257

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2005-2009, (6) analysis of proposals of other interest groups. The process of revision involved ve stages: (1) redening strategic and operational goals; (2) strategic analysis; (3) establishing strategic options; (4) strategic evaluation and selection, and (5) implementation of the mine action strategy. The Craneld Strategic Planning Model The process of revision of the Bosnian and Herzegovinan Mine Action Strategy was implemented according to the model of strategic planning, which was developed by the Mine Action and Disaster Management Centre of the Craneld University.258 The model is a hybrid made of the planning model from the eld of defence and (national) security and the model of corporative strategy.259 It is stated in the description of the model that strategic mine action planning at the state level is the closest to the corpoprate strategic planning. The model consists of ve interconnected stages.260 Those are: dening vision and strategic goals, strategic analysis, strategic selection and implementation of the strategy. Strategic planning begins by dening the vision and strategic goals. Vision or strategic intention is a desired future situation, on which all attention and efforts are focused. A strategy should have one or more strategic goals, dened in a simple and unambiguous manner. It is not advisable to have too many strategic goals because they cause confusion and lack of focus. Strategic goals are reduced to operational objectives which are measurable and contain the indicators to monitor and evaluate the implementation of the strategy. It is not possible to dene all operational goals in the rst stage. They will be fully dened after the strategic selection is made. In that stage mission is dened. Mission is a statement announcing the way to achieve the strategic goals and vision. It corresponds to basic social values, that is, those values that are preserved, developed or established by implementing the strategy. Mission should also reect the expectations of those interest groups who will be inuenced by it, that is, those who inuence the implementation of the strategy. Strategic analysis is implemented through three special analyses: analysis of interest groups, analysis of external environment, and analysis of internal environment. Interest groups are those groups who inuence or are affected by actions of an organisation. In mine action, interest groups may be state authorities, donors, mineaffected communities, affected groups, non-government organisations, deminers, etc. Some interest groups have signicant power and interests, and they are thus called key interest groups. Basically, those groups are included in the process of strategic planning. The analysis of external environment relies upon the existing documents,
258 259

It is the British military university near London, that apart from the Academy has the Command and Staff Course, Institutes and Programmes for MA and PhD studies.

The BH 2002 Demining Strategy was made according to the model of the Craneld University Mine Action and Disaster Centre, including some modications and adjustments to the UN strategy. In the meantime, the model was developed into the Craneld Strategic Planning Model, and adjusted to strategic mine action planning. See Graphic 10: Craneld model of mine action strategic planning.

260

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other strategies and sources of information that will help in identifying external factors that may inuence the implementation of the strategy. They involve access to funds and information, international politcs and international committments, security requrements, political will, technological capacities, development programmess and other external factors. The analysis of internal environment includes the organisational structure and its efciency, as well as potential capacities. The model recommends using two main techniques for strategic analysis: SWOT and PEST analysis. SWOT analysis (template) is used in strategic management for evaluating and comparing external threats and opportunities with internal weaknesses and strengths of the organisation. PEST analysis is used to evaluate the external environment and its impact on the organisation. It includes the analysis of political, legal, economic, socio-cultural and technological factors.261 These two techniques, clearly, are not enough for strategic analysis. Craneld recommends a series of other techniques, such as: diagram matrix, portfolio matrix, scenario method, analysis of resources and capacities, etc.. The product of the strategic analysis are the key assumptions for strategic planning. They involve the conclusions of strategic analysis that create a framework for strategic planning and steer the work on strategic options. The key assumptions contain the main indicators for generating the strategic plan. There are many ways to accomplish a strategic plan. Craneld recommends that no less than three and no more than 5 strategic options be considered. It is advisable to include the option do nothing to which all other options are compared. While preparing strategic options, it is necessary to generate a strategic plan. Using computer tools in generating a strategic plan has become common practice. The evaluation of strategic options is made by assessing and estimating the offered options in relation to the agreed criteria and various scenarios. Expert and political levels play an important role in this. An expert level offers expert opinion and reduces the number of acceptable options. A political level estimates which option is the most favourable and proposes it to the relevant bodies for adoption. The estimation and assessment of strategic options is named strategic integration. Strategy implementation begins with its adoption and preparation of special strategies, operational plans and other activities. Strategy adoption is often followed by changes in legislation that need to create a positive environment for its implementation. Mine action strategy of Bosnia and Herzegovina Upon completion of the revision process, in November 2004, the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina adopted the Mine Action Strategy for BiH 2005-2009. The duration of the strategic cycle was changed vis--vis the previous strategy in order
261

The Principles of Management for Mine Action Managers, Compiled by Craneld Mine Action and Disaster Management Centre, Craneld University, A Pearson Custom Bublishing, 2004, pages 540-544.

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to bring the process in line with the time framework that Bosnia and Herzegovina accepted by signing the Ottawa Convention.262

Graphic 10: Craneld model of mine action strategic planning263

262 263

Bosnia and Herzegovina committed itself to removing all antipersonnel mines within ten years after the Convention comes into force. That period will expire in March 2009. Same, page 39. Source for Graphic 10. Craneld model of mine action strategic planning.

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The strategy document was preceded by the adoption of two other documents by the Strategic Planning Group : Mine Action Strategic Analysis in BiH264 and Establishing Strategic Options.265 The Strategic Analysis of Mine Action is a document that contains fundamental principles, vision, mission, strategic and operational goals, mine action strategic plan and expected results of mine action operations in terms of risk reduction. The strategy is based on seven main principles: Activities being aligned with international conventions and standards, connection with the Development Strategy of Bosnia and Herzegovina (PRSP), nature of mine action, partnership and coordination, humanitarian importance, responsibility and integrated approach to mine action operations at the local community level. The vision is similar to the vision dened in the Strategy of the United Nations. It reads: We foresee the country to be free from the threat of mines and UXO, where individuals and communities will live safely, the country that is oriented toward development, peaceful and normal living, where mine survivors will become fully integrated in the society.266 Seven strategic objectives in total were dened, containing 37 operational goals. The goals cover all mine action components. The strategic plan for mine action operations is the main part of the Strategy. It sets out a concept of the implementation of mine action as a whole and by its components. The concept of mine action in Bosnia and Herzegovina starts from a clear assumption that the nature of mine problem requires more efcient risk management, which is to be done in the form of: continual assessment of the mine situation, efcient planning, coordination and connecting all mine action components into an integrated process. The mine action operations in Bosnia and Herzegovina are focused on the affected community and its needs. The underlying idea of the strategic mine action plan is to signicantly reduce suspected area in highly impacted and medium impacted communities, along with the intensive activities of marking the remaining locations where there are known or suspected mineelds. The operations of humanitarian demining planned in this way will be accompanied by mine risk education activities.267 The Mine Action Strategy is accompanied by special strategies, viz: Bosnia and Herzegovina Mine Risk Education Strategy and Bosnia and Herzegovina Landmine
264

Lisica D. and Rowe D.: Strategic Analysis of Mine Action in Bosnia and Herzegovina. At a meeting held in June, 2004, the Strategic Planning Group accepted the analysis as a main document for drafting and evaluation of strategic options and preparation of the Strategy draft. It has become customary to use various softwares for the analysis of strategic options. The strategy has been analysed and evaluated through a special programme: Strategy Generator, which I made in Excel. Although seven strategic options were evaluated, three options, selected by the Strategic Planning Working Groups, were presented in a document by Lisica D.: Establishing Strategic Options. BH Mine Action Strategy, page 6. Same, page 10.

265

266 267

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SUSPECTED AREA (sqkm) 1,000.00

BASIC CONCEPT OF STRATEGIC PLAN

800.00

1st priority category 2nd priority category 3rd priority category

600.00

400.00

200.00

0.00 2005 2009 2005 2009 2005 2009 HIGH IMPACTED COMMUNITIES MEDIUM IMPACTED COMMUNITIES LOW IMPACTED COMMUNITIES
Source: B&H Mine Action Strategy, page 17

Graph 36: Basic concept of strategic plan

Victim Strategy. They were adopted late in 2004 and are expected to stimulate a speedier development of the mine action components. A communication strategy is planned to be adopted early in 2006, which would complete the present stage of the strategic development. A link has been established with other strategies; conditions have been created to achieve strategic objectives through the operational planning and to verify the adopted solutions in practice.268

6.2.

Operational planning of mine action in Bosnia and Herzegovina

The establishment of the local mine action structure marked the beginning of the development of operational planning in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The entity-level mine action centres adopted the rst annual working plansfor humanitarian demining in 1999.from which their regional ofces created monthly operational plans. Simultaneously with the development of operational planning, the procedure for priority setting in humanitarian demining was introduced. After the entity and state mine action centres merged into one structure in 2002, further progress was made
268

See Table 11: Relationship between strategic and operational planning documents of mine action in BiH

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in the eld of operational planning. The organisational structure and management system became strengthened in terms of resources, professional work and legislation. Some other factors also contributed to the improvement in operational planning. The rst one is the demining strategy of Bosnia and Herzegovina adopted in 2002. The strategic objectives, concept and strategic plan were clear guidelines for operational planning. The development of standards and standing operational procedures is another important factor that contributed to the stabilization of various mine action activities. Staff training in the country and abroad, which began in 2000, are the third factor that had a positive impact on operational planning. Various management skills and planning began to be used in practice. The uniform demining plans for Bosnia and Herzegovina were adopted in the period from 2002 to 2004. These operational plans contain the elements of assessment of mine situation, estimate of capacities and necessary funds, operational demining plan and lists of priorities.
UNITED NATIONS MINE ACTION STRATEGY 2005-2008. EUROPEAN COMMISSION MINE ACTION STRATEGY ZERO VICTIMS 2003-2008.

B&H MID-TERM DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY (PRSP) 2004-2007.

BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA MINE ACTION STRATEGY 2005-2009.

MINE RISK EDUCATION SUBSTRATEGY

ANNUAL MINE ACTION PLAN

LANDMINE VICTIMS ASSISSTANCE SUBSTRATEGY

PLANS OF ORGANISATIONS PLANS OF MRE, LMVA) (DEMINING, ORGANISATIONS PLANS OF MRE, LMVA) (DEMINING, ORGANISATIONS PLANS OF MRE, LMVA) (DEMINING, ORGANISATIONS (DEMINING, MRE, LMVA)

OPERATIONAL PLAN FOR HUMANITARIAN DEMINING PRIORITY LIST

OPERATIONAL PLAN FOR MINE RISK EDUCATION

Graphic 11: Relationship between strategic and operational documents of mine action planning in BiH

The plans were focused on humanitarian demining, but they also introduced the elements for planning mine risk education activities and assistance to mine victims. Other introduced segments were quality assurance planning and planning at the 148

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level of the accredited humanitarian demining organisations. The following stage began after the revision and adoption of the Mine Action Strategy 2005- 2009. The state level operational planning consists of two levels: the state mine action plan and operational plans for some components of mine action. Consequently, the Council of Ministers adopted the Mine Action Plan of Bosnia and Herzegovina for 2005, and the Demining Commission adopted the Humanitarian Demining Operational Plan for 2005 and Mine Risk Education Operational Plan for 2005.269 The Mine Action Plan follows the main concept elaborated in the Strategy. It contains a general mine action assessment, the method of realisation of strategic and operational goals with, all mine action components being planned at the state level: training, quality assurance, resources, funding and estimate of the expected results. Operational plans were adopted for humanitarian demining and mine risk education as two mine action components reducing the risk of mines. The plans elaborated in more detail the annual mine action plan to the regional level and organisations that implement them. On the one hand, they come out of the mine action plan, and on the other hand, from the coordination with demining and mine risk education organisations. That is a more exible approach that requires a regular cooperation with all plan implementers and greater engagement in the management of the plan thereby allowing better use of existing resources.

6.3.

A model for setting priorities for mine action in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Priority setting is a key issue in dealing with mine and UXO problem. Those who make decisions about priorities should have a clear picture of the sequence of moves for achieving the best results in the rather complex mine and ERW-situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Priority setting is a process that may be viewed from the aspect of state policy for mine action and from the aspect of nal beneciary of land and other resources that have been restored by eliminating or reducing risk. From the aspect of state policy, it is a top down process that includes: setting strategic goals, strategic plan for mine action, demining plan for regions (entities, cantons, regions) and setting criteria for prioritisation. These elements are further developed in the operational plans for mine action at the state level and the decisions of the entity governments. From the aspect of nal beneciary, it is a bottom-up process. The selection of priority locations and affected communities is a responsibility of the local authorities. There are coordinators of demining in the affected communities and they, in cooperation with representatives of the affected communties, make the lists of priority tasks for humanitarian demining. In the situations that involve cantonal coordinators, the
269

See Graphic 11: Relationship between strategic and operational documents of mine action planning in BiH.

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cantonal list of priorities is made based on municipal priorities. The Mine Action Centre of BiH conducts surveyes of proposed locations, examines how harmonised they are with criteria for priority setting and prepares project documentation. Projects for demining are classied in cooperation with coordinators. The Mine Action Centre of Bosnia and Herzegovina consolidates the lists of priorities at the entity level, harmonizes them with the state plan and submits them for approval to the entity governments. The present procedure for setting priorities is based on the provisions of the Demining Law of Bosnia and Herzegovina270. All levels of government are involved in the priority setting process. The main shortcomings of this model for setting priorities stem from the fact that there is no order on the state list of priorities, the decision-making procedure is complex, subjectivity exists when nal selection is made and it is difcult to compare indicators of risk and mine impact. The existing model for setting priorities is outdated because of the new way of assessing and because of the introduction of the integrated approach in mine action, according to which one individual location cannot be viewed separately, out of context with the affected community. The new model for setting priorities will retain the existing channels for setting priorities. It is necessary to strengthen the bottom-up process in order to have a more signicant inuence of citizens and affected communities on the process of setting priorities. Transparency and objectivity will be achieved by determining clear and measurable criteria for setting priorities and by introducing classication techniques. Apart from dening the priority levels271 in the classication of locations, it is necessary to evaluate other criteria such as social, humanitarian, operational-technical, cost and other criteria, which will determine the nal rank of locations on the list of priorities.

270 271

BH Demining Law, Ofcial Gazette Sl. glasnik BiH 15/02, dated 12 March 2002, Articles 11 and 12.

See Table 14: Template of humanitarian demining priority levels with an explanation. The template is a simple technique for classifying priorities in relation to the level of hazard and potential benets of demining.

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7.

MINE ACTION PLANNING IN COMMUNITIES AFFECTED BY MINES AND ERW

7.1.

Development of planning in communities affected by mines and ERW

Integrated planning and implementation of mine action operations at the level of mine- and ERW-affected communities was introduced in Bosnia and Herzegovina late in 2003. A pilot project272 Task Assessment and Planning was a constituent part of the landmine impact survey. The aim was to connect the results obtained through the landmine impact survey in Bosnia and Herzegovina with operational mine action planning in Bosnia and Herzegovina particularly at the level of endangered communities. The survey was conducted in eight highly impacted communities and a model connecting the various mine action components (humanitarian demining, mine risk education and assistance to mine victims) into a single planning system was tested in those communities adopting solutions which appeared as constants during the trial period. Integrated mine action planning for the mine-affected community became a new approach in the assessment of available information, a new approach in the reduction of mine risk and its negative socio-economic impact, and the basis for the development of the existing priority setting model.273 The planning process relies upon the previous systematic and general surveys of mined areas, including the improvements based upon risk management. Along with the identication and analysis of risk areas, the following segments were introduced: assessment at the level of the affected community, determining the likelihood of the existence of mineelds, and the preliminary estimation of the level of impact and analysis of potential benets of mine action. The change in the planning concept required additional training for the operational staff, change in established practice and approach toward planning as well as the support of donors. By mid-2005 integrated mine action plans were completed for 33 mine and UXOaffected communities. The implementation of the rst mine action plan in practice274, including the operations of technical survey, clearance, permanent marking and mine risk education, began in April 2004.
272 Bosnia and Herzegovina Landmine Impact Survey. Annex VII BHMAC Task Assessment and Planning Final Report by Darvin Lisica, 2004. 273 Same, page 191. 274 The Norwegian Peoples Aid began to implement a mine action plan in the affected community of Ulice in the Brko District. More details can be found in the case study at the end of this chapter.

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7.2.

A model of integrated mine action planning in communities affected by mines and ERW

The existing model of integrated mine action planning at the level of the affected community was not completed. The main shortcoming was an insufcient risk assessment in the affected community, coloured by the subjectivity of the assessmentmaker. The operations of risk identication and the identication of affected groups were not clearly described and measurable, which prevented their standardization and quality control. In addition, the practice showed that in planning it is necessary to improve the process of deciding about objectives and activities to be taken. Some of these shortcomings were removed during the implementation of the project Organisation of the planning system for mine risk education in Bosnia and Herzegovina, organised by UNICEF from 01 October 2004 to 15 April 2005.275 It improved the planning process through the application of known assessment and decision-making techniques, adapted to the communities affected by mines and ERW. Although the project was limited to the planning of only one mine action component mine risk education planning, it offered solutions for the major shortcomings observed in the process of integrated mine action planning in the affected community. It also included the questions pertaining to the future development of integrated planning: How to improve the participation of the community itself in the realization of a mine action plan? How to increase the communitys resistance to mine hazard? To what extent can a community identify risk priorities? What is a tolerable risk for the affected groups?276 These questions raised a problem of the participation of citizens in the process of assessment, setting priorities and implementation of measures of protection against mines and ERW. Planning leaders in the previous models were all professionals employed in the specialized mine action organisations. The other side members of the affected population groups in general did not have a signicant role or a major impact on the decision-making process. It remained forgotten that the perception of the affected groups and community in general was important for the process of risk identication, determining the impact level and setting priorities. The involvement of the community in the process of deciding about priorities created preconditions for their active participation in the implementation of the adopted plans. It may be concluded from the analysis of the previous development and observed shortcomings that the model of integrated planning for the mine- and ERW- affected
275

The project was carried out by Lisica D. and Srni Vukovi S., and the results were published in the co-authors paper Mine risk education in the affected communities. Handbook for Impact Assessment and Planning in B&H, 2005. Apart from joint parts, I am the author of the chapters: Data collecting and processing (introductory part), Collecting available data, Previous assessment, Interview, Risk assessment in the mine-affected community and Preparing a mine risk education plan for the affected community. The following chapter carries the amended and improved text from the Handbook authored by me.

276

Lisica D. and Srni Vukovi S.: Mine risk education in the affected communities. Handbook for Impact Assessment and Planning in Bosnia and Herzegovina, UNICEF, 2005, page 11.

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community is based upon ten principles. The rst ve principles are from UN mine action policy and strategy. The other ve principles are drawn from the previous development of the theory and practice of mine action in Bosnia and Herzegovina. They are: 1) Planning and evaluation based on the affected community. 2) Achieving the greatest effect. 3) International standards used as a basis. 4) Transparency and responsibility to donors. 5) Integration of mine action activities. 6) Theory and practice of risk management and other scientic achievements used as a basis. 7) Landmine impact survey used a starting point. 8) Continuity in relation to previous practice and results. 9) Most effective use of available resources. 10) Community involvement in the problem solving process. The process of integrated mine action planning for the mine and ERW-affected community consists of ve sub-processes: (1) Preliminary assessment, (2) Collecting data in the eld, (3) Risk assessment for the affected community, (4) Assessment of needs and capacities of the affected community, and (5) Preparing a mine action plan.277 The subprocesses further consist of the operations in which techniques for assessment and decision-making in risk management are used.278

277 278

Graphic 12: Flowchart integrated mine action planning for the affected community.

Theoretical framework for dening a model of integrated mine action planning at the level of the affected community consists of: Risk management model according to the Australian New Zealand standards AS/NZS 4360:1999, NERAM Benchmark Risk Management Framework, Risk management model according to ISO/IEC standards, Framework for assessing and managing the environmental health risks of the USA Presidential/Congressional Commission; Model for the environmental health risk analysis of the USA Council on Environmental Quality and Problem-solving and decision-making model of the European Organisation for Quality.

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AVAILABLE DATA COLLECTION AND PROCESSING

PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT

SISTEMATIC SURVEY

DATABASE

PRELIMINARY RISK ASSESSMENT

OTHER SOURCES

LANDMINE IMPACT SURVEY

MISSING DATA ANALYSIS .

GENERAL ASSESSMENT OF MINE SITUATION .

FIELD DATA COLLECTION

IDENTIFICATION OF HAZARDOUS LOCATIONS

GENERAL SURVEY REPORTS AND PROJECTS

IMPACTED COMMUNITY RISK ASSESSMENT

RISK IDENTIFICATION

IDENTIFICATION OF AFFECTED GROUPS

RISK ESTIMATION AND PRIORITY SETTING

AFFECTED GROUP CHARACTERIZATION

RISK REGISTER PREPARATION

IMPACTED COMMUNITY CHARACTERIZATION

RISK REGISTER (DESCRIPTION OF RISKS, AFFECTED GROUPS, PRIORITY LEVEL, RISK CONTROL)

ANALYSIS OF PREVIOUS MINE ACTIONS .

PREPARATION OF PLAN

DETERMINATION OF OBJECTIVES AND TASKS

SELECTION OF THE BEST OPTION TO INTEGRATE ACTIVITIES

FLOWCHART: Integrated Community Based Mine Action Planning Process

DRAFT THE PLAN

COMMUNITY CONSENSUS

INTEGRATED COMMUNITY MINE ACTION PLAN

Graphic 12: Flowchart - integrated mine action planning for the affected community

The selection of techniques depended on the level of mine action development in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The techniques applied when this model is used in other countries depend on their specic circumstances. The planning process conceived in this way is not burdened with complex and time-consuming techniques. The orientation to simpler and shorter techniques was limited only by the acceptable level of accuracy. 154

IMPACTED COMMUNITYNEEDS AND CAPACITY ASSESSMENT

MINE ACTION PLANNING IN COMMUNITIES AFFECTED BY MINES AND ERW

Preliminary assessment Preliminary assessment is a procedure that produces, on the basis of the data collected from available sources, the rst picture of the affected communities and population groups. Such an assessment is not complete, but it is accurate enough for directing teams and determining the intensity of eld activities to verify the existing data or to collect that which is missing. Preliminary assessment consists of three procedures: Collecting and processing available data, preliminary risk assessment, missing data analysis. Collecting and processing available data. Collecting and processing available data is the stage that precedes all planning activities and forms an integral part of them. Collecting data includes: (1) collecting and processing available data, and (2) collecting new data in the eld. Collecting and processing available information in databases, archives, past and current mine action projects and other documents are the basis for preliminary risk assessment for mine-affected groups and communities. Systematic collection of available data and dedicated work on their analysis will provide enough elements for preliminary risk assessment and prevent the unnecessary use of the resources for collecting data in the eld. Groups of data that are provided from available sources are: 1. Data on the socio-economic impact of mines (landmine impact survey in Bosnia and Herzegovina, database and records of the landmine impact survey in the affected communities, studies and data provided by other state level authorities, social groups and organisations, public and private economic sector). Data from systematic surveys (studies of the systematic surveys of municipalities, database records on suspected areas and reconstructed confrontation lines stored in the B&H Mine Action Centre). Data obtained by general survey (nal reports on general survey from the database records of the B&H Mine Action Centre) Data on mine situation from the database of the B&H Mine Action Centre and databases of other organisations (mineeld records, humanitarian demining operations mine clearance, technical survey and permanent marking, mine accidents and victims, previous and current mine risk education activities). Data on mine action priorities, development plans and other data relevant for the affected community, possessed by the municipal demining coordinator. 155

2.

3. 4.

5.

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6.

Data of partner and other organisations present in the affected communities.

Preliminary risk assessment consists of the operation of previous mine risk identication. No risk can be described without previously identifying the mine hazard, as a source of risk, and the elds where its socio-economic impact is manifested. There are various risk identication techniques. The technique chosen for preliminary risk assessment is a risk identication template. It will later be described as a constituent part of risk assessment, one of the main sub-processes in integrated mine action planning. The activities such as previous identication of the affected population groups, risk analysis and compiling a risk register are not done in this stage because there are not enough elements to determine the level of risk and establish risk characterization, which, after all, is not the objective of preliminary risk assessment. 279 Missing data analysis. Missing data analysis is the second part of preliminary assessment. It is preliminary risk assessment that identies missing or incomplete data and targets groups that will be surveyed or interviewed and establishes the required level of monitoring and measurements in the eld. The most common data that need to be additionally collected in the eld are: 1. Data relevant for the assessment of risk level, which are missing or not veried: (1) Data on risk sources and their socio-economic impact; (2) data on risk nature and possible consequences; (3) data on affected groups - present and potential (4) data on the communitys perception of risk. 2. Data relevant for the analysis of needs and capacities: (1) Data on the activities the community has been engaged in and the community livelihood; (2) data on development plans and priorities; (3) data that are used for the identication of persons capable of participating in mine risk reduction, with the following features being relevant: authority in the community and qualities of a leader (personal authority is considered more important than formal authority), knowledge and skills, motivation for participation; (4) data on the communitys resistance to the mine hazard: level of information in the community, level of organisation of the community, including the organisational resources that are not directly linked with solving mine problems but are potentially usable, the effects of the previous and current mine action activities and connection with other communities and higher authorities in solving mine problems. Collecting data in the eld Collecting data in the eld is done by qualied teams through monitoring, measurements and communication with the data source. Interview and survey are the
279

See Graphic 12 for risk assessment for the affected community: Course diagram integrated mine action planning for the affected community.

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procedures of gathering data through communication with the data source and they are constituent parts of the survey method.280 It is a similar process to general survey but with some added features.. General survey is only about risk identication and its impact on individual locations, without generalization at the community level. As part of integrated planning at the level of the affected community it is necessary to collect additional data on the affected population groups and their risk behaviour, and the data relevant for setting priorities within the community. This additional data is of higher quality than that collected in the course of general survey. Being incorporated in integrated mine action planning, the collection of data through interviews and surveys becomes more signicant especially because of the direct communication with the affected group members. Risk assessment in affected communities The substance of mine- and ERW-risk assessment and the identication of procedures and selection of assessment and decision-making techniques depend on the specic nature of the problem that is analysed. The application of the theory and practice of risk management in mine action planning ows from the following specic characteristics: 1. The cause of risk is of physical nature present in the human environment. It is leftover mines and other explosive remnants of war.2. 3. The identication of suspected locations was made through general assessment of mine situation (systematic survey and landmine impact survey). They are dened in terms of their shape, boundaries, area, priority category, use and land characteristics. General survey is used to make a detailed assessment of suspected locations that represent a humanitarian demining priority. Results of the assessment are prepared in the form of survey report including a description of the site conditions, original mineeld records, results of eld measurements and drawings.
Survey is a method of gathering empirical data by way of statements, verbal statements in the rst place, including written statements too, given by the interviewees. It is a way of gathering data directly, because data are obtained in a direct verbal communication with the data source statement giver. It is at the same time a way of gathering data indirectly because it is the interviewee statement giver - who acts as a mediator between an event and data on the event Termiz D. and Milosavljevi S.: Uvod u metodologiju politikologije (Introduction to the Methodology of Political Science) , DAX Trade, Sarajevo, 1999, page 412. Dizdarevi mentions the advantages typical only of the survey method: (1) Survey is conducted in natural circumstances; (2) It is possible to collect, in a relatively short period of time, many information relevant for the behaviour and mental processes of the selected groups of interviewees; (3) The application of the results obtained from the surveys of groups and individuals in real life situations (and in other similar, life situations) is more efcient, and (4) There is no impact of the survey on the psychological phenomena that is surveyed or there is a very small impact that can basically be ignored. Dizdarevi I.: Psihologija masovnih komunikacija (The Psychology of Mass Communications): (media, models and measurements), Studentska tamparija Univerziteta, Sarajevo, 1998, pages 179-191.
280

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4. A dominant source of risk is human behaviour, caused by the wrong perception of mine- and ERW-risk. The identication of the social sources of risk and their possible impact is critical for the assessment of affected groups. 5. ERW hazard in Bosnia and Herzegovina is not of the same intensity and does not have the same impact as mine hazard. Not all ERW categories present the same hazard. The problem of unexploded ordnance (UXO) is much more pronounced than the problem of abandoned explosive ordnance (AXO). Taking into account these specic characteristics, the assessment of mine- and ERWrisk consists of the following operations: (1) Identication of hazardous locations, (2) Risk identication (mine and ERW hazards and elds where their socio-economic impact is manifested); (3) Identication of the affected population groups; (3) Risk evaluation, and (4) Compilation of a risk register. Identication of hazardous locations. Procedures for dening hazardous locations applied in mine action operations differ from country to country and have different levels of detail and precision. Therefore there is a certain terminological confusion in the names of these areas, such as: suspected area, suspected risk area, suspected hazard area, hazard area, risk area, mined area, etc. Identication of hazardous areas in Bosnia and Herzegovina is conducted by using the previously described procedures: systematic survey (suspected area as the least exact image of mine hazard), general survey (risk area as a result of further measurements and collections of data about an area and its risk, without entering it) and technical survey (mined area during which, using technical methods, a risk area is entered, a mineeld reached and boundaries of a mined area dened for mine clearance). The procedure to identify hazardous areas in the course of integrated planning of mine action operations applied in Bosnia and Herzegovina is general survey, which has been described in the Standing Operational Procedures of the Mine Action Centre in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Risk identication. A source with a potential to cause a risk event and harm is usually called a hazard. Identifying sources of risk and areas of impact provides a framework for risk identication and analysis.281 Identifying hazard as one of the sources of mine risk is one of the most important steps in the process that ends in a complete characterisation and registration of the risk. Risks will not be analysed and the procedures leading to their reduction will not be planned unless all potential hazards are identied. As has already been emphasised, the community affected by mines and ERW builds on the assumption that the leftover mines and ERW are the main cause of all other potential hazards. They are associated with social, economic and natural circumstances in the affected community. It is these circumstances that predetermine the manner in which a categorisation of potential hazards as risk sources
281

The Australian and New Zealand Standard on Risk Management, AS/NZS 4360:1999, Appendix D, page 30.

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will be carried out. Following the previous conclusion, the hazards caused by mines and ERW are classied into three basic categories, and each of them is further divided into lower categories: 1. Behaviour of community members: 1.2. Individual human behaviour (conscious, unconscious): 1.2.1. Entering suspected area: (1) existential reasons (land cultivation, pasture, collecting wood or forest fruits and herbs, etc.); (2) recreation (hunting, shing, sports, childrens games, etc.). 1.2.2. Contact with mines and ERW: (1) unsolicited mine clearance (for the purpose of approaching blocked resources a water source, land, forest, etc., obtaining explosive or metal, reducing hazard for other group members); (3) marking of mines/ERW; (4) storing (safe keeping) of mines. 1.3. Behaviour characteristic of social groups and community as a whole: 1.3.1. Behaviour of social groups (classication by categories is the same as in case of individual human behaviour). 1.3.2. Community behaviour: (1) social stereotypes and traditional perceptions (religious and national prejudices, gender prejudices); (2) population awareness and mutual communication (low or no awareness of mine hazard, low or no awareness of risk reduction measures, lack of communication among different population groups); (3) population movement; (4) poor community organisation and indifference towards mine problem. 2. Economic circumstances and public security: 2.2. Reconstruction of economic facilities located on or near a suspected area. 2.3. Works in the vicinity of a mineeld (electrication, construction of roads and other infrastructure, security and police reasons). 3. Environment: 3.2. Areas contaminated with mineelds and ERW as potential causes of hazard: 3.2.1. Identied mineelds (marked and unmarked). 3.2.2. Suspected locations. 3.2.3. Identied ERW (individual or scattered in a certain area). 159

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3.3. Natural phenomena: 3.3.1. Displacement of mines (oods, torrents, erosion and soil settling). 3.3.2. Activation by re. 3.3.3. Mine activation by animals. Mine hazard has an impact on safety, human lives and health, the environment and living conditions, and total development of individuals, groups and society in general.282 The landmine impact survey provided the rst image of the socioeconomic impact of mines and ERW in Bosnia and Herzegovina at the end of 2003. Identication of the socio-economic impact of mines and ERW at the macro level was carried out at that time. Categorisation of the socio-economic impact of mines includes the categories dened by the mine impact survey, updated based on the experiences from Bosnia and Herzegovina and other countries. Identication at the micro level, within the community affected by mines and ERW is more detailed, in both the number of examined criteria and the level of generalisation (concerning data accuracy, assessment, level of risk analysis and priority setting): 1. Social impact: 1.2. Impact on human lives and health: 1.2.1. Mine accidents (in the last year, in the last two, three or more years: (1) with fatalities (children, adults); (2) injury (children, adults); (3) without consequences for lives and health. 1.2.2. Possibility for mine accident: (1) with fatalities (children, adults); (2) injury (children, adults); (3) without consequences for lives and health. 1.2.3. Impeded or blocked access to health protection. 1.2.4. Blocked access to potential sources of contagion or intoxication. 1.3. Impact on return: 1.3.1. Blocked or impeded return of refugees. 1.3.2. Blocked or impeded return of displaced persons.
282

This impact is called socio-economic impact. According to Study of the Geneva International Centre for Humanitarian Demining: This is a negative impact on development, which obstructs the post-conict reconstruction, measures and access to health protection and education, makes fertile agricultural land useless and disturbs free trafc of goods and labour. A Study of Socio-Economic Approaches to Mine Action, UNDP and Geneva International Centre for Humanitarian Demining (GICHD), Geneva, 2001, page 23.

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1.4. Impact on education, culture and other kinds of social superstructure: 1.4.1. Blocked school reconstruction. 1.4.2. Blocked or impeded school attendance for children. 1.4.3. Blocked or impeded access to other facilities of social importance for the community (religious facilities, graveyards, public buildings, etc.). 2. Economic impact: 2.2. Areas to which mines are blocking access283 2.2.1. Uncultivated land. 2.2.2. Pasture. 2.2.3. Arable land: (1) irrigated land; (2) non-irrigated land. 2.2.4. Roads. 2.2.5. Residential area: (1) reconstruction of houses destroyed in the war; (2) reconstruction of other facilities; (3) construction of new houses; (4) construction of new facilities. 2.2.6. Access to water: (1) potable water; (2) water for other purposes (irrigation, cattle, industrial purposes). 2.2.7. Other infrastructure. 2.3. Negative impact on potential holders of economic development (tourism, sports, economic operators). The Identication of mine hazards and their impacts are interconnected and form a single process. There is no mine hazard that does not produce a certain impact and conversely there is no mine impact that is not a result of a hazard as a source of mine risk. Results are entered in a special matrix. The place in a matrix where hazard and impact meet is identied as risk that later needs to be analysed and described. Therefore this matrix is usually called risk identication matrix.284 Identication of affected population groups. Identication of mine hazards and the areas of their socio-economic impact is a prerequisite for identication of affected population groups. An assessment of affected groups is made for several reasons: (1) a signicant number of mine action operations are directed to those risk reduction
283

The categorisation of areas to which mines block access has been aligned with the Landmine Impact Survey in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Landmine Impact Survey - Bosnia and Herzegovina, Final Report, 2004, page 33. See Appendices, Table 23: Identication matrix for the risk from mines and ERW.

284

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methods that are related to a change in the perception and behaviour of affected groups; (2) priority setting, as part of the planning process, depends on the assessment of the level of threat they are exposed to; (3) risks cannot be described without identifying the groups affected; (4) the assessment of acceptable risk and resistance of some population groups depend on their identication. The procedure for identication of affected groups is based on well-known problemsolving and decision making techniques. In addition to the planning agents and teams that collected data on the ground, other entities need to be included in the identication, such as: accredited organisations involved with mine risk education, local authorities and members of the communities affected by mines and ERW. It is important in this aspect that members of an affected community, i.e. its representatives are equally represented. This means that they should dominate the group in charge of assessing the level of threat. That will ensure the fullment of one of the basic requirements of both the theory and practice of risk management that both parties take part in the process of risk assessment: experts with their special knowledge, and risk-affected individuals and groups with their perception and interests. Identication of affected groups may be carried out by way of applying different techniques.285 In this case a description will be given of the procedure for identication of affected groups, where a series of simple, interconnected problem-solving and decision-making techniques are used.286 They are: (1) method of amassing ideas (brainstorming); (2) the Cause and Effect Diagram, also known as Ishikawa Diagram; (3) weighting; (4) the Pareto Diagram, also known as the ABC Analysis or the Method of Priorities. The use of these techniques requires a group work of all participants. The quality of the results obtained will depend on the representative quality of the group. Brainstorming in the risk assessment process which serves to generate as many ideas as possible for potential causes or solutions of problems, for the purpose of subsequent assessment, analysis and research.287 Brainstorming makes it possible for each member of a team to freely, spontaneously and without the criticism of the others, identify affected groups according to his/her opinion. There is certain discipline
285

Different identication techniques may also be used in this case. The participation approach, applied in Cambodia, can serve as an example of a different identication procedure. A number of Cambodian experiences have been incorporated into the plan drafting process. See more in: Powel B.: Mine Risk Education in Local Community in Cambodia, MacFarlane Burnet Institute for Medical Research and Public Health-UNICEF, 2001.

286

This solution, which connects ve techniques into a single approach, has so far not been applied in the identication of affected groups. The procedure was presented by prof. dr. Marko Beker during the education of EOQ quality managers, organised by Ros-kar d.o.o. Sarajevo in 2004. So far it has been used for problem-solving and quality improvement. The procedure incorporates mine risk identication, which precedes it, and risk assessment procedure, which follows it, into a single process of risk assessment in an affected community.

287

Kondi .: Kvaliteta i metode poboljanja (Quality and Methods for Improvement), Varadin, 2004, page 357.

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during brainstorming, which should manifest itself in the fact that, while one person speaks, others listen carefully. Careful listening and simultaneous reection about new ideas make interaction among team members possible. In order to achieve the representative quality of a team, the number of participants should not be less than six persons, which also provides the minimum number of participants by different subjects. The participants have to be very well informed of the problem to be solved through brainstorming. The project leader needs to be familiar with the situation in the mine-affected community and have experience in leading brainstorming. The size of a brainstorming team should not exceed 10-12 persons.288

ENVIRONMENT

ECONOMIC CIRCUMSTANCES AND SECURITY AFFECTED GROUP 7 AFFECTED GROUP 6 AFFECTED GROUP 2

HUMAN BEHAVIOUR AFFECTED GROUP 4 AFFECTED GROUP 3 AFFECTED GROUP 2 AFFECTED GROUP 1 PROBLEM: IDENTIFICATION OF AFFECTED GROUPS

AFFECTED GROUP 10 AFFECTED GROUP 9

AFFECTED GROUP 1 AFFECTED GROUP 8

AFFECTED GROUP 5

AFFECTED GROUP 13 AFFECTED GROUP 8 AFFECTED GROUP 14 AFFECTED GROUP 15

AFFECTED GROUP 7 AFFECTED GROUP 11 AFFECTED GROUP 12

AFFECTED GROUP 3

Adjusted to the identification of affected groups in relation to the source: Application of the Quality Management System, VQ Quality Management School, Oskar Development and Quality Centre, Zagreb, page 31

SOCIAL IMPACT

ECONOMIC IMPACT

Graphic 13: The Cause and Effect Diagram (Ishikawa Diagram) for identication of affected groups

The Cause and Effect Diagram ensures the systematic quality in the identication of potential affected groups. This method is applied in combination with brainstorming. The basic idea is to break down a complicated problem into more simple parts, which can also be broken down into more simple problems.

288

Same, page 357. There are positive experiences even with groups numbering 30 and more participants, however, that is ascribed to the abilities of the team leader, who has to be especially talented and have great experience in the application of the technique, who can hold the attention of a group for several hours and channel ideas in the right direction.

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The Cause and Effect Diagram289 is presented in form of a shbone, which in a simple way shows the relationship between a problem (effect) and the causes that inuence it. The basic categories for identifying mine hazards (human behaviour, economic circumstances and public security and the environment) and the areas of their socioeconomic impact (social impact and economic impact) have been recorded on the branches of the diagram instead of the classic areas for researching the causes of a certain problem. In that way risk identication is linked with the identication of affected groups. Before they start working the participants need to be once more informed of the situation in the affected community and the available data. After being informed of the situation in the affected community, they will separately carry out brainstorming for each branch under examination. As many affected groups as possible, which are connected to a certain group of hazards (risk sources) or their impact, will be listed for each branch. Affected groups can appear several times on different branches. The team leader will clearly register all mentioned groups the way team members listed them. When all ideas about possible affected groups are exhausted, the Cause and Effect Diagram is designed in its entirety. In the following step the results will be grouped by dening the initial level of impact for each group. The brainstorming participants will evaluate whether a group is exposed to high, medium or low impact, and they will mark it visibly. The brainstorming leader guides the opinions of the participants about the level of impact, the opinions are harmonised, and voting is organised as appropriate, in case the opinions are divided. A large number of affected groups is usually identied when using the Cause and Effect Diagram. The identied affected groups represent input for the next step in the procedure - the weighting. This technique is used to compare all affected groups with each other. If there are sufcient groups, only the highly affected groups will be taken for the weighting, and in case their number is not sufcient, the medium and low affected groups can be taken following their order. Past experiences show that the number of groups included in the weighting should not be less than 20. The comparison of all groups among themselves is conducted by means of determining which group carries higher weight in relation to the one it is compared with. The group that carries higher weight scores two points, and the one carrying lower weight scores 0 points. In case they carry the same weight, they score one point each. The evaluation of all weights can be reached through discussion and agreement, or, if it is not possible to reach an agreement, the team leader will make a decision based on the opinions stated. The points of each affected group are totalled and its weight dened in percentages.
289

Kaoru Ishikawa introduced this method into the Japanese steel industry in the early 1950s. According to his experience, a certain effect rarely rests on only one cause, especially not the one that looks as the solution to a problem. Causes of problems are most frequently to be searched for in four elds. Those are man, machine, method and material. Environment and management are very often attached to them. The Cause and Effect Diagram has become universally applicable, so that other research areas, by means of which a problem is solved, may be used instead of the mentioned areas, as it has been done in this case. Lecture held by prof. dr. Marko Beker in the Quality Management School in September 2004.

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A/A A1 A2 A3 A4 A5 A6 A7 An

A1

A2

A3

A4

A5

A6

A7

An

1-n

TOTAL

Table 10: The weighting matrix

The results obtained by weighting are further processed using the Pareto Diagram.290 The percentages obtained by weighting present the level of mine risk impact on a certain group, and the cause of that impact lies in the nature of the affected group (its characteristics, risk behaviour, location in relation to suspected area, etc.). The weights for affected groups are entered into the Pareto diagram in percentages and consecutively from the highest to the lowest one. These values are entered in a cumulative way by adding the weight values of all preceding groups to the one that follows. A graphic presentation of results is the most important phase in the application of the Pareto Diagram. An analysis of the cumulative line shows three elds A, B and C. That is where the second name of this technique, the ABC Analysis, comes from. There are no strict rules in dening boundaries between the elds. The essence is the analysis of the appearance of the cumulative line and sorting out areas in accordance with the level of impact importance.291 The A area is dened in the steepest part of the cumulative curve, and the C area of the curve is almost level.
290

The Italian economist Pareto found that a small number of causes very often produce the largest number of effects. In the early 1950s Joseph Juran dened that principle at a universal level as a 80/20 rule, which means that 20% of all causes produce 80% of effects. Lecture held by prof. dr. Marko Beker in the Quality Management School in September 2004.

291

Kondi .: Kvaliteta i metode poboljanja (Quality and Improvement Methods), Varadin, 2004, pages 77 and 78.

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The results of the Pareto Diagram, also known as the Method of Priorities, depend on a serious and consequent application of assessment techniques that preceded them. Identication of affected groups connects three assessment techniques into one procedure. Affected groups are ltered using the Cause and Effect Diagram and weighting. Therefore slightly more lenient criteria need to be applied when setting priorities using the ABC Analysis. The former activities on the ground indicate that the A area needs to include 10-30% of groups, out of the total number of groups that have undergone weighting and that account for 60-80% of the total impact of the risk from mines and ERW.

IMPACT LEVEL (%)

100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

Adjusted to the risk identification in relation to the source: Application of the Quality Management System, VQ Quality Management School, Oskar Development and Quality Centre, Zagreb, page 36

AFFECTED GROUPS

Graph 37: The Pareto Diagram

Risk evaluation and priority setting. Risk evaluation is a process of determining values for likelihood and consequences.292 The rst step of risk evaluation is to choose indicators that will serve as a quality classication of the likelihood and consequences
292

Denition according to ISO 73:2002. Other denitions of risk evaluation are similar. For example, Cohrssen, J.J. and Covello V.T.: Risk Analysis: A Guide to Principles and Methods for Analyzing Health and Environmental Risks, 1989, page 8: Risk evaluation is an evaluation of likelihood, or statistical likelihood that harm will occur as a result of risk exposure; or Scarff F.,Carty A. and Charette R.: Introduction to the Management of Risk, London, HMSO/CCTA, 1993, page 88: Risk evaluation a process of qualifying the likelihood and consequence values of an identied risk.

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of a risk event. Classications are a form of quality measurements, which means that necessary scales have to be selected and constituted based on the data collection instruments.293 The selection of the most important indicators for risk evaluation was carried out in the rst part of the procedure by means of identifying mine hazards and their socioeconomic impact and by means of identifying the affected groups. The design of scales for measuring risk level depends on the characteristics of selected indicators.294 The result of risk evaluation is the determination of risk level, and in the next step, setting of priorities for the treatment of hazardous areas. The risk level is determined by means of designing matrices for determining the hazard level and matrices for determining the level of impact on an affected group. The hazard level matrix is obtained by combining the scale of former and potential consequences of mine accidents and incidents with the scale of the likelihood of mineelds existence in a suspected area.295 The hazard levels obtained from the matrix are classied as very high (VV), high (V), medium (S) and low (N). The matrix of the level of impact on a group is obtained by combining the ABC scale that classies affected groups into the A, B and C areas, dened by the Pareto Diagram296 with the relative size of the affected group.297 The assessed potential impact on an affected group, presented by the A, B or C area, is taken as an indicator for risk consequence. The indicator of risk likelihood is the size of an affected group compared against the entire population, since, under the same risk, the likelihood of a
293 294

Termiz D. and Milosavljevi S.: Uvod u metodologiju politikologije (Introduction to the Methodology of Political Science), 1999, page 498.

The selection of matrices for quality measurement and analysis is not random. It is recommended by different risk management standards. In the case of this matrix, it presents a modied application of the Australian and New Zealand Risk Management Standards. The criteria for determining the scale of the likelihood of mineelds existence: 1.Almost certain existence of mineelds: the area used to be between the confrontation lines, the land is not in use, there are records of mineelds and visible traces of possible mine hazard. 2.Likely existence of mineelds: the area used to be between the confrontation lines, the land is not in use, there are no records of mineelds existence, there are certain traces and information pointing to possible mine hazard. 3.There is no likelihood of mineelds existence: The land is either not used, or is partly used, there are neither records of mineelds existence, nor signs pointing to mine hazard. ABC scale of affected groups (according to the Pareto Diagram) 1. A Area: around 10-30 % of groups that account for some 60-80% of all mine impacts 2. B Area: around 20-40% of groups that account for some 20-30 % of all mine impacts 3. C Area: around 50-70 % of groups that account for 5-10 % of all mine impacts THE SCALE OF THE RELATIVE SIZE OF AN AFFECTED GROUP 1. Large group: 10 % and more of the total number of inhabitants in the community 2. Medium group: 5% to 10% of the total number of inhabitants in the community 3. Small group: less than 5% of the total number of inhabitants in the community

295

296

297

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risk event will be greater for a larger population. The impact levels obtained from the matrix are classied as very high (VV), high (V), medium (S) and low (N).
POTENTIAL CONSEQUENCES OF MINE ACCIDENTS death injury

HAZARD LEVEL MATRIX

PAST CONSEQUENCES OF MINE ACCIDENTS/INCIDENTS

death almost certain probable

injury

no victims

LIKELIHOOD OF MINEFIELD EXISTENCE IN A SUSPECTED AREA

VV

VV

VV V N

V S N

improbable

Table 11: The hazard level matrix

The result of using matrices is the scale of hazard level and the scale of impact on a group, with the same number of classes. These two scales form a new matrix for determining risk level, in which, on one side, there is hazard as a source of risk and on the other, its impact on affected groups. That is, at the same time, the matrix of priority levels for treatment of risk events. The distribution of priority levels within the matrix depends on the assessment of importance of each criterion, and that is always a management decision. In this case, the focus in selecting priorities is on the affected groups.

IMPERIL TO GROUP MATRIX

GREAT

AFFECTED GROUPS (Pareto dijagram)

A VV V S

B S S N

C N N N

RELATIVE SIZE OF THE AFFECTED GROUP

MEDIUM

SMALL

Table 12: The affected group matrix

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HAZARD LEVEL

RISK LEVEL MATRIX

VERY HIGH HIGH MEDIUM LOW

VERY HIGH

1 2 4 5

2 3 4 5

3 3 4 6

3 4 5 6

LEVEL OF IMPERIL TO GROUP

HIGH

MEDIUM

LOW

Table 13: The risk level matrix

Risks have their clean and their dynamic side.298 If the clear side of the risk is considered, the consequences are always negative (cost, loss of a human life, destruction, resource blockage, etc.). The dynamic side of risk includes a potential benet as a consequence of dealing with risk (gain, prot, it accelerates population return, enables reconstruction, building of economic facilities, agricultural growth, etc.). The process of setting priorities for humanitarian demining builds on both sides of risk, i.e. potential positive and negative consequences and balance among them. The matrix for determining the priority level for risk locations will be designed by combining the earlier dened scale of hazard level299 with the new scale of benet level. The scale of benet level is composed of three categories of priorities for humanitarian demining, which means continuity in comparison to the past practice. Apart from being used to set priorities within only one affected community, this matrix may be used for dening priorities for any other risk location whose demining is not connected with integrated mine action plans. The creation of a risk register. The last phase of risk assessment denes risk characteristics. The technique used for that purpose is known as risk characterisation and is aimed at giving answers to the questions that describe the risk.300
298

Husar I.: Kako smanjiti premiju osiguranja (How to Reduce the Insurance Premium), http://www. osiguranje.hr/casopis.asp, Svijet osiguranja magazine (The World of Insurance) no. 2, access date: 12 December 2005. See Table 11: Risk level matrix The questions for risk characterisation are recommended in: The Presidential/Congressional Commission on Risk Assessment and Risk Management: Framework for Environmental Health Risk Management, Final Report, Volume 1, 1999, pages 23-24.

299 300

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HAZARD LEVEL

PRIORITY LEVEL OF RISK LOCATION MATRIX

VERY HIGH

HIGH

MEDIUM

LOW

1st Category

1 3 6

2 5 9

4 8 11

7 10 12

BENEFIT LEVEL

2nd Category

3rd Category

Table 14: The matrix of the level of priorities for humanitarian demining

1. What kinds of hazards and exposure are to be examined? 2. What is the nature and likelihood of the health risk? 3. Which individuals or groups are at risk? 4. Are some people more likely to be at risk than others? 5. How severe are the anticipated adverse impacts or effects? 6. Are the effects reversible? 7. What scientic evidence supports the conclusions about risk? How strong is the evidence? 8. What is uncertain about the nature or magnitude of the risk? 9. What is the range of informed views about the nature and probability of the risk? 10. How condent are the risk analysts about their predictions of risk? 11. What other sources cause some types of effects or risks? 12. What contribution does the particular source make to the overall risk of this kind of effect in the affected community? To the overall health of the community? 13. How is the risk distributed in relation to other risks to the community?

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14. Does the risk have impacts besides those on health or the environment, such as social or cultural consequences? These questions related to risk characterisation include all preliminary risk assessment steps, help dene the risks in the community affected by mines and ERW to their full extent, help in their classication, determination of risk/priority level and identication of control measures. All the risks identied have to be described and recorded, regardless of whether they are going to be treated, only controlled or bypassed. Risks are recorded in a risk register for the affected community, which contains the following elements:301 1. Description of risk: potential risk event, the place of the potential event, the most affected group. 2. Possible consequence of the risk event: description of the worst possible consequence, likelihood of a risk event. 3. Measures undertaken to control the risk (type of measure and level of adequacy). 4. Level of risk (level of threat and impact on an affected group).

Assessment of needs and capacities in the affected community Risk assessment and the assessment of the needs and capacities of the affected community are sub-processes that rely on each other and are interdependent. Although priority setting is included in risk assessment, it cannot be carried out without having previously determined the characteristics of affected groups.302 Not even the characterisation of affected groups can start without their previous identication within risk assessment. There are signicant differences between these two subprocesses. Risk assessment determines the extent of the problem (the magnitude of risk) and the assessment of needs and capacities should dene the actual potential of the community to deal with the problem: how the risks are going to be treated, at which time, what assistance is needed, what is the vulnerability of the community and affected population groups, what situation is acceptable for the community. If looking at the assessment of needs and capacities in the context of risk management, one will observe that, in its substance, it corresponds to risk evaluation. It means that it corresponds to the process in which the previously evaluated risk will be compared with other criteria, an acceptable level will be dened and the procedures
301

See Appendices, Table 24: Risk register for the affected community. According to: The Australian and New Zealand Standard on Risk Management, AS/NZS 4360:1999, Section H, page 42. The risk register is adjusted to mine risk assessment. See Graphic 12: The progress diagram the process of integrated mine action planning for the affected community.

302

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to reduce risks to the acceptable level will be ranked. The assessment of the needs and capacities comprises three procedures: (1) characterisation of affected groups, (2) characterisation of the affected community and (3) analysis of past mine action operations.303 Characterisation of affected groups. A group is a collective of persons who, in some way, are united in their common goals and among which there is constant interaction.304 Each individual is at the same time a member of a number of groups, to which he/she is connected through common interests for a longer or shorter period of time. Mine affected groups also have similar characteristics. They are also connected through common goals, interests and mutual interaction among their members. Affected groups also have some other specic characteristics, such as: exposure to the same risk, vulnerability, similar risk behaviour and risk perception. The characterisation of an affected group implies determining of a set of characteristics of a certain group. General characteristics are: (1) common goals and interests; (2) regular interaction: (3) leadership; (4) followers (the size of a group and sub-groups, gender, age, education, health); (5) rules of behaviour; (6) status differences among group members; (7) role within the group.305 Special characteristics of the affected group are: (1) group vulnerability (number of casualties, consequences of suffering, risk exposure); (2) risk behaviour (level of information, communication among group members, risk perception). Characterisation of the affected community. Includes an analysis of the characteristics classied into nine categories: (1) basic data about the community, (2) cultural and traditional features, (3) religion and ethnic groups, (4) rules of behaviour, (5) victims of mine accidents, (6) human resources, (7) material resources, (8) development agents and (9) communication channels.306 Analysis of past mine action operations. This analysis provides quantitative and qualitative historical data about the outcomes and impact of past mine action operations on risk reduction and improvement of the general living conditions in the community.
303

Lisica, D. and Srni Vukovi, S.: Upozoravanje na mine u ugroenim zajednicama. Prirunik za procjenu ugroenosti i planiranje u Bosni i Hercegovini (Mine Risk Education in the Affected Communities. Handbook for Impact Assessment and Planning in Bosnia and Herzegovina), UNICEF, Sarajevo, 2005, page 53. The Manual contains a chapter on the assessment of needs and capacities of the affected community, prepared by S. Srni Vukovi. This classication differs substantially from the one presented in the Manual, however, the general group characteristics are separated from the special characteristics relating to mine action operations. Wren, D. A. and Voich, D.: Management, Process, Structure and Behavior. Translation, PS Grme - Privredni pregled, Belgrade 2001, page 367. Same, page 353.

304 305 306

Lisica, D. and Srni Vukovi, S.: Upozoravanje na mine u ugroenim zajednicama. Prirunik za procjenu ugroenosti i planiranje u Bosni i Hercegovini (Mine Risk Education in the Affected Communities. Handbook for Impact Assessment and Planning in Bosnia and Herzegovina), UNICEF, Sarajevo, 2005, pages 58-60.

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MINE ACTION PLANNING IN COMMUNITIES AFFECTED BY MINES AND ERW

Preparation of a mine action plan for the affected community The preparation of an integrated mine action plan for the affected community is a subprocess that includes the following procedures: dening goals and tasks, selecting the best option for the integration of activities, preparing the plan and ensuring the consent of the community. Denition of goals and tasks. The efcacy of planning is measured by the level of achievment of the goals set.307 The goals are dened in a hierarchical order. The following model of the hierarchy of goals, which are in a cause and effect relationship and aligned one beneath the other, may be used in planning mine action operations in the affected community308: 1. Final goals are goals desired to be achieved by conducting mine action operations in affected communities. 2. Specic goals are goals that are connected to a specic affected community and used for achieving nal goals. 3. Direct goals determine more closely the manner in which specic goals are to be achieved. The nal goal of mine action in the affected community is to reduce or remove the risk from leftover mines and ERW to the level that would prevent suffering of the population and enable an unobstructed use of the most important natural, economic and other resources that the community disposes of. The nal goal is a small-scale vision and is dened in a similar way for all affected communities. Specic goals are basically dened according to mine action components, the characteristics of affected groups and the community as a whole, and the established risks to be treated. Each specic goal is elaborated in two or more immediate goals. Immediate goals reect mine action priorities in the affected community. Several options are elaborated for each immediate goal, which depend on available capacities, funds and the time needed for their realisation. Selection of the best option for integration of activities. Planning as a management function is a process of dening goals and producing the most rational solutions and procedures for their implementation in certain situations. The planning process ends in a plan as its nal result.309 The best option is the one that produces best
307 308

Wren, D. A. and Voich, D.: Management, Process, Structure and Behavior, translation, PS GrmePrivredni pregled, Belgrade, 2001, page 94.

There are different kinds of classication into higher-order and lower-order goals. In this case we use the classication that was used in the manual for the application of the participatory approach in the affected communities in Cambodia, adjusted to the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina. (Bruce Powel: Mine Risk Education in Local Community in Cambodia, MacFarlane Burnet Institute for Medical Research and Public Health-UNICEF, 2001, page 60. Tatalovi, Sinia: Upravljanje u politikim sustavima i sustavima obrane (Management in Political and Defence Systems), DEFIMI, Zagreb, 1996, page 20.

309

173

DARVIN LISICA

results within a shorter period of time given the optimum use of available capacities and funds. The selection of options implies the selection and description of those activities that would result in the realisation of immediate goals. There is a cause and effect relationship and feedback between tasks and goals. The tasks depend on available and potential capacities (human, material, organisational, knowledge and nancial capacities) and the given timeframe, and they have to be achievable. The goals that cannot be achieved through the tasks dened shall be rejected. The selection of the most favourable option leads to the division of the plan into several phases. The risks with the greatest inuence, i.e. those that represent the highest priorities are treated in the rst phase. In terms of time, this phase should be shortest, with the use of restricted resources. The number of phases may depend on the level of mine contamination, the number of blocked resources, available mine action capacities, and available funds. Plan production. An integrated mine action plan for the affected community is a standardised document in which quantitative and qualitative data are entered in form of tables and descriptions. It consists of two main parts.310 The rst part is made of the results of a situation assessment in the affected community and it contains: (1) general data, (2) mine situation in the community, (3) most important affected groups, (4) description of the most important risks to be treated and (5) list of risk/suspected areas. Apart from a table with numerical data, the general data about the community also include a descriptive summary. The summary of the social and economic situation in the community contains the following data: the inuence of war on the situation in the community (damages of war, number of war casualties, places where displaced persons and refugees are situated), post-war reconstruction (number of reconstructed houses, reconstructed economic facilities, roads and other facilities, present return rate, whether the remaining population is expected to return), the prevalent activity and possible investments. The data about the socio-economic impact of mines (more detailed description of incidents/accidents including a time-space framework and consequences, most signicant blockages of economic resources), a description of suspected areas (position in the community, their potential purpose and likelihood of mine hazard, especially the hazard from the most dangerous mines) and mine action history (past demining operations, mine risk education projects and assistance to mine victims) are entered into the mine situation summary. The data about the most affected groups, the description of the most important risks to be treated and the list of risk/suspected areas are taken over in their entirety from the risk assessment and the analysis of needs and capacities. The second part of the plan is known as the plan of activities and contains the following elements: (1) goals, (2) tasks by phases, (3) mode of mine action integration, (4) effects expected from plan implementation, (5) agreement of the community and (6)
310

See Appendices, Appendix 1: The form of integrated mine action plan for the community affected by mines and ERW.

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MINE ACTION PLANNING IN COMMUNITIES AFFECTED BY MINES AND ERW

appendices. The nal goal, specic goals and their immediate goals achieved through tasks are entered into the plan. The plan includes one or more phases with task descriptions. A short task description is provided for each task, which clearly shows the connection with the immediate goals set (in what period is it going to be carried out, who the performer is and which phase of realisation has it reached). The mode of mine action integration is a plan implementation concept that describes how to ensure interconnection and alignment of the planned activities by time and intensity in order to achieve the maximum possible results. The assessment of effects expected from the plan implementation relies on the goals set and the time for their achievement. Evaluation is provided about which risks would be reduced or eliminated and about the extent to which the entire socio-economic impact would be reduced. The signatures of community representatives on the plan have their formal and essential features. They conrm the participation of members of the affected community in the assessment and decision-making process, create conditions for improved communication in the course of plan implementation and reect willingness of the community to control the residual risk after the risk reduction intervention is completed.

7.3.

Results of the integrated approach in mine action planning in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Risk assessment as a measure for risk reduction During the implementation of the integrated approach through 2004 and 2005, the Mine Action Centre in Bosnia and Herzegovina surveyed 104.18 sq km of suspected area in 39 affected communities. After conducting risk assessment, the suspected area was reduced to 22.33 sq km of risk area or to 21.43% in relation to the previous situation. Mine action plans for affected communities and comprehensive ancillary documents for humanitarian demining operations were developed (mine clearance, technical survey, permanent marking). A smaller portion of risk area, comprising 16.37%, was intended for mine clearance, 34.15% for technical survey and 65.17% for permanent marking. Only 23% of the plans elaborated the part of risk assessment related to affected groups, risk identication and mine risk education. This portion of the model was elaborated at the beginning of 2005, and has so far been applied for assessment and planning in 21 affected communities however, not in all communities where mine action plans were produced previously according to the older model. The process of integrated planning is still in its developmental phase and is applied successively. Therefore there is a discrepancy in the preparation of plans. Its resolution is expected during 2006. 175

DARVIN LISICA

Risk assessments conducted in 21 mine-affected communities, with the total of 5,885 households and 20,366 inhabitants, show that mine impact is not evenly distributed among all affected groups. An analysis of the number and prevalence of the most affected groups in these communities shows that the returnee and farmer families are by far the most affected.311 The family category did not exist in the earlier assessments of the impact of mines and UXO in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Therefore, the impact of mines and UXO on family, as the fundamental social category, was insufciently examined. Implementation of integrated mine action plans in affected communities. In 2004, Norwegian Peoples Aid launched the rst phase of the mine action plan for the settlement of Ulice in the Brko District. It was the rst community affected by mines and UXO in which the implementation of the integrated approach in mine action operations was used. In 2005, apart from proceeding with the second phase in Ulice, Norwegian Peoples Aid launched the implementation of another plan, the armed forces initiated the implementation of three plans and civil protection started two mine action plans for affected communities. Three plans were implemented by means of a public bidding for the resources provided by the International Trust Fund from Ljubljana. The implementation included ten mine-affected communities. Certain blocks were removed by humanitarian demining in another 8 communities; however, this implementation cannot be regarded as an integrated approach in conducting mine action operations. Out of the total size of the risk area included in the mine action plans for 18 affected communities, 33.73% of the planned area was cleared, 35.98% technically surveyed and 14.92% permanently marked.

7.4.

Results of the survey carried out in four affected communities in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Risk identication is the rst step that initiates the risk management process and signicantly inuences its success. Most frequent sources of the risk from mines and UXO lie in the human individual and group behaviour. The task of the survey conducted in four affected communities was to examine the extent to which risk behaviour depends on the socio-economic effects of the conict and the reection of the inuence of risk perception by affected groups.

311

See Graph 38: Impact of mines and UXO on the most affected population groups.

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MINE ACTION PLANNING IN COMMUNITIES AFFECTED BY MINES AND ERW

IMPACT OF MINES AND UXO ON AFFECTED GROUPS

80% 76.19% 71.43% 70% FREQUENCY OF AFFECTED GROUPS IN COMMUNITIES 60% LEVEL OF IMPACT (RELATIVE WEIGHT)

50%
41.34%

47.62% 42.86%
32.73%

40%

30% 23.81% 20% 14.29%

6.32% 4.45%

23.81% 19.05% 14.29%

10%

4.92%

9.52%
0.40%

9.52%
0.55% 0.01%

9.52%
0.35%
Worker on water supply maintenance 0.05%

7.16%

0.81%

0.34%

0.47%
Cattle breeders

0%
Villagers who enter a suspected area

Workers on tarup and tractor drivers

Children under 18

Displaced persons

Public workers

Snail collectors

Returnees

People who cut wood

Hunters

Fishers

Farmers

NOTE: Calculation conducted in 2005 based on a risk assessment made in 21 affected communities with 5,885 households and 20,366 inhabitan, whose results are kept in the B&H Mine Action Centre

Graph 38: Impact of mines and UXO on the most affected population groups

Fruit growers

Tourists

0.09%

4.76%

4.76%

4.76%

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sqm
18,000,000 16,000,000 14,000,000 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 0

HUMANITARIAN DEMINING IN THE COMMUNITIES AFFECTED BY MINES AND UXO IMPLEMENTATION IN 2004 AND 2005 PLAN REALIZATION REMAINING ISSUES

CLEARANCE

TECHNICAL SURVEY

PERMANENT MARKING

Source: Database of the B&H Mine Action Centre

Graph 39: Results of humanitarian demining in the implementation of mine action plans for the affected communities

The survey was conducted in the following populated places: Kamenica in the Municipality of Tesli, Ulice in the Brko District, Kovaica in the Municipality of Tuzla and Sase in the Municipality of Srebrenica. According to the results of the mine impact research, all four populated places were classied as highly affected communities. Those are scattered villages that used to be the areas of combat actions during the war. Two of those affected communities are larger (Sase and Kamenica), and two are smaller (Ulice and Kovaica). The survey was carried out from September to November 2005, after which the results were processed and interpreted. The return rate in the communities is different, the highest in Kamenica and the lowest in Sase. The degree of reconstruction of joint infrastructure (municipal branch ofce, school, surgery, paved roads, electricity, water and telephone system) and residential facilities is highest in Ulice. The majority of residential buildings in Kamenica have been reconstructed, but roads have not been paved. Houses and electric installations in Kovaica have been reconstructed to a smaller extent, while the electricity network and the remaining infrastructure have not been reconstructed. The school in Sase has been reconstructed, the road paved and a new surgery built, the houses and the electricity network have been partly reconstructed, and the remaining pre-war infrastructure has not been reconstructed.

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MINE ACTION PLANNING IN COMMUNITIES AFFECTED BY MINES AND ERW

NUMBER OF INHABITANS AND NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS

PRESENT-DAY AND PRE-WAR NUMBER OF INHABITANS AND HOUSEHOLDS SURVEY RESULTS

CURRENT NUMBER OF INHABITANS PRE-WAR NUMBER OF INHABITANS CURRENT NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS PRE-WAR NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS 21,33% - RETURN RATE

2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0

83.33%

90% 80% 70%

21.33% 14.32%

60% 50% 40% 30%

18.89%

20% 10% 0%

KAMENICA, TESLI MUNICIPALITY

ULICE, BR KO DISTRICT

KOVA ICA, TUZLA MUNICIPALITY

SASE, SREBRENICA MUNICIPALITY

Graph 40: Present-day and pre-war number of inhabitants and households in surveyed communities

NUMBER OF LEFTOVER BLOCKAGES 6

IMPACT OF RISK FROM MINES AND UXO ON THE COMMUNITY

BLOCKAGES REMOVED THROUGH HUMANITARIAN DEMINING AND THOSE THAT ARE STILL PRESENT POPULATION RETURN

USE AND RECONSTRUCTION OF OTHER INFRASTRUCTURE ACCESS TO WATER FOR OTHER PURPOSES ACCESS TO DRINKING WATER BUILDING OF NEW HOUSES

SASE, ULICE, BR KO KOVA ICA, KAMENICA, DISTRICT TUZLA SREBRENICA TESLI -2 MUNICIPALITY MUNICIPALITY MUNICIPALITY

RECONSTRUCTION OF OTHER FACILITIES RECONSTRUCTION OF HOUSES DESTROYED IN THE WAR USE AND REPAIR OF ROADS

-4

USE OF FORMER ARABLE LAND WITHOUT IRRIGATION USE OF FORMER PASTURES NUMBER OF BLOCKAGES REMOVED THROUGH DEMINING

-6

ACCESS TO UNCULTIVATED LAND

-8

Graph 41: Impact of the risk from mines and UXO on the community

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DARVIN LISICA

The use of the majority of blocked resources has been made possible in Ulice, Kovaica and Sase. Full conditions for sustainable return, in relation to the risk from mines and UXO, have only been created in Ulice. Mine victims have been reported in Kamenica (3 victims), Ulice (6 victims) and Sase (1 victim). Characteristics of surveyed households. In comparison to the pre-war time, the average number of household members has dropped in all surveyed communities. At the time of the survey, this number was highest in Kamenica, with an average of 4.56 members. Before the war, 4.92 members lived in these households on average. Ulice records the highest decline in the average number of household members. It has almost halved in comparison with the pre-war average of 6.2 members. At the time of the survey, Ulice had 3.31 members per surveyed household. Kovaica also records a signicant decline in the number of household members, from 5.33 before the war to 3.50 at the time of the survey, as well as Sase, with 5.40 before the war and 4.30 at the time of the survey. It may be deduced from the survey that the average number of returnee households has declined in the communities affected by mines and UXO. The age structure in the surveyed households shows that women and men are equally represented in the households. Children and persons younger than 18 make 20% and persons aged 19 to 54 make 50% of household members. Some 30% of household members are over the age of 55 years. Older population represents the majority in Ulice and Kovaica, while Kamenica has the largest number of children and young persons.

AGE STRUCTURE OF SURVEYED HOUSEHOLDS SURVEY RESULTS 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% SASE, ULICE, BR KO KOVA ICA, KAMENICA, SREBRENICA DISTRICT TUZLA TESLI MUNICIPALITY MUNICIPALITY MUNICIPALITY
WOMEN UNDER 5 WOMEN BETWEEN 6 AND 14 WOMEN BETWEEN 15 AND 18 WOMEN BETWEEN 19 AND 30 WOMEN BETWEEN 31 AND 42 WOMEN BETWEEN 43 AND 54 WOMEN OVER 55 MEN OVER 55 MEN BETWEEN 43 AND 54 MEN BETWEEN 31 AND 42 MEN BETWEEN 19 AND 30 MEN BETWEEN 15 AND 18 MEN BETWEEN 6 AND 14 MEN UNDER 5

Graph 42: Age structure of surveyed households

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MINE ACTION PLANNING IN COMMUNITIES AFFECTED BY MINES AND ERW

The education level in these communities is low. Around 70% of surveyed household members completed primary school at the most. More than a half of the inhabitants are unemployed. According to the results of the survey, the average monthly income of those households amounts to KM 181 in Kamenica, KM 392 in Ulice, KM 185 in Kovaica and KM 366 in Sase, which is below the poverty threshold in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

COMPLETED EDUCATION

EMPLOYEE STRUCTURE

PRIMARY SCHOOL

NO EDUCATION

KAMENICA, TESLI MUNICIPALITY ULICE, BR KO DISTRICT KOVA ICA, TUZLA MUNICIPALITY SASE, SREBRENICA MUNICIPALITY

17.39% 34.38% 52.38% 26.83%

54.35% 43.75% 19.05% 41.46%

25.00% 21.88% 28.57% 31.71%

2.17% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

1.09% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

8.75% 20.34% 0.00% 19.23%

0.00% 1.69% 0.00% 0.00%

2.50% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

20.00% 3.39% 0.00% 0.00%

5.00% 16.95% 52.94% 15.38%

2.50% 1.69% 5.88% 0.00%

61.25% 55.93% 41.18% 65.38%

Table 15: Educational background and employment status of the members of surveyed households

Risk perception and risk behaviour. The data obtained by surveying married couples in selected households presented a basis for examining risk perception and their risk behaviour. Since both spouses were asked identical questions in the questionnaires, it was possible to compare their answers and examine the agreement of positions. When the reasons for entering a suspected area are concerned, the majority of answers show that the reason is cutting of trees. In Kamenica it is followed by hunting and collecting forest fruits and mushrooms, in Ulice by hunting and land farming, in Kovaica by land farming and cattle breeding, and in Sase by hunting and passing through a suspected area. The mentioned reasons for entering a suspected area represent indicators of risk behaviour. There is a high level of agreement between the positions of spouses concerning the most important modes of risk behaviour that they indicated in their answers. It is interesting that childrens games do not represent signicant risk behaviour, although children under 14 years of age make 10-20% of household members. There is agreement about that in case of the majority of surveyed spouses.312

312

See Table 16: Reasons for entering a suspected area

181

UNEMPLOYED

SECONDARY SCHOOL

UNIVERSITY EDUCATION

HOUSEWIFE

WORKER

RETIREE

FARMER

CLERK

EDUCATION BACKGROUND AND EMPLOYMENT STATUS OF THE MEMBERS OF SURVEYED HOUSEHOLDS

PRIVATE OWNER

TWO-YEAR POST SECONDARY EDUCATION

CKILDRENS'S GAMES

HUNTING

FISHING

AGRICULTURAL WORKS

WOOD CUTTING

ROAD MAINTENANCE

ELECTRICITY NETWORK MAINTENANCE

WATER SUPPLY MAINTENANCE

PASSAGE THROUGH A SUSPECTED AREA

COLLECTING SECONDARY RAW MATERIALS

COLECTING HERBS

COLLECTING FOREST FRUITS AND MUSHROOMS

KAMENICA, TESLI MUNICIPALITY 0.56% 1.06% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.67% 3.33% 10.00% 3.33% 36.67% 0.00% 17.74% 1.61% 6.45% 24.19% 3.23% 0.00% 0.00% 33.33% 47.62% 0.00% 0.00% 6.45% 3.33% 0.00% 0.00% 21.43% 32.14% 0.00% 0.00% 33.33% 1.59% 34.92% 12.70% 6.35% 0.00% 27.66% 5.32% 28.72% 19.15% 2.13% 0.00% 0.00% 4.76% 17.86% 0.00% 14.52% 10.00% 26.82% 1.12% 7.82% 26.82% 0.00% 0.56% 0.00%

HUSBAND 0.00% 29.23% 2.05% 6.67% 30.77% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

6.15% 2.23% 9.57% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 17.74% 13.33%

2.56% 0.00% 4.26% 6.35% 0.00% 0.00% 1.61% 0.00%

1.54% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

21.03% 34.08% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.76% 6.45% 13.33%

WIFE

ULICE, BR KO DISTRICT

HUSBAND

WIFE

KOVA ICA, TUZLA MUNICIPALITY

HUSBAND

28.57% 14.29% 0.00% 0.00%

WIFE

SASE, SREBRENICA MUNICIPALITY

HUSBAND

WIFE

Table 16: Reasons for entering a suspected area

0.75 0.69 0.91 0.28 -0.00 0.70 -0.02 -0.03 -0.03 0.46 -0.01 0.56 -0.02 0.16 0.58 0.65 0.66 0.44 0.60 0.50 0.49 0.35 0.55 0.31 0.40 0.16 0.63 0.70 -0.04 1.00

AGREEMENT IN SPOUSES' ATTITUDES

PEARSON'S CORRELATION COEFFICIENT BETWEEN THE ANSWERS OF THE SPOUSES FROM THE SAME HOUSEHOLDS 0.56 0.57 -0.06 0.58 0.54

KAMENICA, TESLI MUNICIPALITY

ULICE, BR KO DISTRICT

KOVA ICA, TUZLA MUNICIPALITY

SASE, SREBRENICA MUNICIPALITY

ALL COMMUNITIES

CATTLE BREEDING

182
REASON FOR ENTERING A SUSPECTED AREA (PERCENTAGE IN THE ANSWERS OBTAINED IN SURVEYED HOUSEHOLDS) 0.00% 0.00% 2.13% 0.00%

DARVIN LISICA

QUESTIONS: IS SOMEONE ENTERING A SUSPECTED AREA AND FOR WHAT REASONS?

MINE ACTION PLANNING IN COMMUNITIES AFFECTED BY MINES AND ERW

PERCENTANGE IN THE ANSWERS OBTAINED IN THE SURVEYED HOUSEHOLDS

KAMENICA, TESLI MUNICIPALITY ULICE, BR KO DISTRICT KOVA ICA, TUZLA MUNICIPALITY SASE, SREBRENICA MUNICIPALITY

HUSBAND WIFE HUSBAND WIFE HUSBAND WIFE HUSBAND WIFE

0.51% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

1.03% 1.68% 2.13% 1.59% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.33%

5.13% 6.15% 5.32% 4.76% 3.57% 0.00% 3.23% 6.67%

10.77% 14.53% 21.28% 20.63% 10.71% 4.76% 20.97% 3.33%

28.21% 25.70% 30.85% 38.10% 21.43% 23.81% 27.42% 46.67%

28.21% 26.82% 28.72% 23.81% 32.14% 28.57% 35.48% 36.67%

26.15% 25.14% 11.70% 11.11% 32.14% 42.86% 12.90% 3.33%

Table 17: Surveyed spouses perception of threat to age groups

AGE STRUCTURE OF SURVEYED SPOUSES SURVEY RESULTS

100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% HUSBAND WIFE HUSBAND WIFE HUSBAND WIFE

OVER 55 YEARS 43-54 YEARS 31-42 YEARS 19-30 YEARS

HUSBAND

WIFE

KAMENICA, TESLI MUNICIPALITY

ULICE, BR KO DISTRICT

KOVA ICA, TUZLA MUNICIPALITY

SASE, SREBRENICA MUNICIPALITY

Graph 43: Age structure of surveyed spouses

According to the perception by surveyed spouses, the most affected age groups are 31 years of age and above. In the communities where the average age of surveyed persons increases, the percentage of older age groups in their answers also increases. Children and the young up to the age of 18 were also not recognised as an affected group,

OVER 55 YEARS

LESS THEN 5 YEARS

15-18 YEARS

19-30 YEARS

31-42 YEARS

43-54 YEARS

6-14 YEARS

MOST AFFECTED AGE GROUP ACCORDING TO THE OPINION OF SPOUSES IN THE SURVEYED HOUSEHOLD

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DARVIN LISICA

despite the signicant portion they occupy in the household structure. A comparison of data by communities shows that the spouses surveyed evaluated the age groups they belong to as most affected.313 Two questions were directly aimed at examining perception of the spouses as a source of mine risk. They ranked the answers offered by marking the answer with the highest weight with 1, and so on. In answering the questions: What would you do if you saw a mine emplaced in the ground in your close vicinity?, the majority of the spouses awarded the highest number of points to the wrong answer: I would go back tracing my footprints and inform the competent authorities. Although the number of respondents was relatively small for a more serious correlation analysis, the Pearsons Correlation Coefcient between the individual rankings of answers to this question indicates that there is signicant correlation in the positions of spouses in Kovaica. In other communities this correlation is moderate to low. The second question used to examine perception by spouses was as follows: What would you do if a member of your family had activated a mine and if he/she had been lying injured at the place of the accident? The analysis of the answers ranked shows differences in the answers. The surveyed spouses from Kamenica gave almost the same weight to wrong and correct answers. In Ulice, where Norwegian Peoples Aid had informed the population about the measures of protection from mines and UXO on a regular basis, positive answers prevailed. The poorest risk perception in relation to action in case of an accident was dened in Sase, where around 65% of respondents gave a wrong answer. Pearsons Correlation Coefcient for this question is higher in Ulice and Sase, where it stands at the level of moderate correlation according to ranking of answers. In case of surveyed persons in other two communities, the correlation in the answers given by spouses is low. The data about the level of information that the surveyed persons dispose of concerning marking of mine suspected locations in their community indicate risk perception as well. Based on the answers received, the conclusion can be made that the inhabitants recognise the mine and UXO markers, but not always the differences between them. The fact that they do not see the difference between permanent and emergency marking is not that important from the point of view of risk perception. The surveyed wives were more critical in evaluating the marking level than their household partners. The spouses evaluations of the marking level in Ulice match the true situation on the ground, while in Kovaica there is a reverse situation. The reason for that is the fact that conduct of the marking in Ulice was followed by an information campaign for the population, while it was not the case in Kovaica. That points to the conclusion that the efcacy of marking depends on additional protection measures implemented by means of informing the population about the situation, which is an instrument for changing risk perception.314
313 314

See Table 17: Surveyed spouses perception of threat to age groups and Graph 43: Age structure of surveyed spouses. See Graph 46: Level of information about marking of mineelds and Graph 47: Surveyed persons evaluation of the level of marking suspected areas in their communities.

184

MINE ACTION PLANNING IN COMMUNITIES AFFECTED BY MINES AND ERW

100.00% 90.00% 80.00% 70.00% 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00%

WHAT WOULD YOU DO IF YOU SAW A MINE EMPLACED IN THE GROUND IN YOUR CLOSE VICINITY? WEIGHT ANALYSIS ACCORDING TO RANKED ANSWERS
RED TONES - WRONG ANSWER BLUE TONES - CORREST ANSWER GREY TONES - NEUTRAL ANSWER

I DO NOT KNOW

I WOULD INFORM THE POLICE

I WOULD MARK THE MINES AND INFORM THE COMPETENT AUTHORITIES I WOULD DEACTIVATE THE MINE AND DESTROY IT I WOULD DEACTIVATE THE MINE AND BRING IT TO THE POLICE

HUSBAND

HUSBAND

HUSBAND

HUSBAND

WIFE

WIFE

WIFE

WIFE

I WOULD GO MY WAY SLONG THE PATH I AM FAMILIAR WITH I WOULD GO BASK TRACING MY FOOTPRINTS AND INFORM THE COMPETENT AUTHORITIES I WOULD STOP, WOULD NOT MOVE AND WOULD CALL FOR HELP

KAMENICA, TESLI MUNICIPALITY

ULICE, BR KO DISTRICT

KOVA ICA, TUZLA MUNICIPALITY

SASE, SREBRENICA MUNICIPALITY

Graph 44: Surveyed spouses mine risk perception - action in case of coming across a mine

WHAT WOULD YOU DO IF A MEMBER OF YOUR FAMILY HAD ACTIVATED A MINE AND IF HE/SHE HAD BEEN LYING INJURED AT THE PLACE OF THE ACCIDENT?
100.00% 90.00% 80.00% 70.00% 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00%
WIFE WIFE WIFE HUSBAND HUSBAND HUSBAND HUSBAND WIFE
I WOULD SEND SOMEBODY TO BRING DEMINERS AND PARAMEDICS AND I WOULD WATCH HIM/HER FROM A SAFE AREA I WOULD LEAVE HIM/HER ALONE AND RUN TO BRING DEMINERS AND PARAMEDICS I WOULD SOMEHOW REACH HIM/HER, PULL HIM OUT AND GIVE HIM/HER FIRST AID I DO NOT KNOW

WEIGHT ANALYSISI ACCORDING TO RANKED ANSWERS RED TONES - WRONG ANSWER BLUE TONES - CORREST ANSWER GREY TONES - NEUTRAL ANSWER
I WOULD CALL THE NEIGHBOURS FOR HELP

I WOULD WARN HIM/HER NOT TO MOVE

KAMENICA, TESLI MUNICIPALITY

ULICE, BR KO DISTRICT

KOVA ICA, TUZLA MUNICIPALITY

SASE, SREBRENICA MUNICIPALITY

Graph 45: Surveyed spouses mine risk perception - action in case of accident

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DARVIN LISICA

100.00% 90.00% 80.00% 70.00% 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00%

PERMANENT FENCE PERMANENT FREESTANDING SIGNS EMERGENCY MARKING YELLOW DTRIPS IMPROVISED

LEVEL OF INFORMATION ABOUT MARKING OF MINE SUSPECTED LOCATIONS

HUSBAND

WIFE

HUSBAND

WIFE

HUSBAND

WIFE

HUSBAND

WIFE KAMENICA, ULICE, KOVA ICA, SASE, TESLI BR KO TUZLA SREBRENICA MUN. DIST. MUN. REAL MARKINGMUN. SITUATION

KAMENICA, TESLI MUNICIPALITY

ULICE, BR KO DISTRICT

KOVA ICA, TUZLA MUNICIPALITY

SASE, SREBRENICA MUNICIPALITY

PERCENTAGE OF ANSWERS IN RELATION TO THE NUMBER OF SURVEYED PERSONS

Graph 46: Level of information about marking of mineelds

80.00%

TO WHAT EXTENT HAVE MINEFIELDS BEEN MARKED? EVALUATION BY SURVEYED SPOUSES

COMPLETELY MARKED PARTLY MARKED NOT MARKED I DO NOT KNOW

70.00%

60.00%

50.00%

40.00%

30.00%

20.00%

10.00%

0.00% HUSBAND WIFE HUSBAND WIFE HUSBAND WIFE HUSBAND WIFE KAMENICA, TESLI MUNICIPALITY ULICE, BR KO DISTRICT KOVA ICA, TUZLA MUNICIPALITY SASE, SREBRENICA MUNICIPALITY

Graph 47: Surveyed persons evaluation of the level of marking suspected areas in their communities

186

MINE ACTION PLANNING IN COMMUNITIES AFFECTED BY MINES AND ERW

When the process of locating suspected areas as hazard sources is at issue, the perception of the surveyed persons differs. The example of the affected community of Kamenica shows that there are differences between the views of the spouses as to where mineelds are located. A comparison of the answers given by the surveyed persons with the mine situation map of Kamenica315 shows that men have more information about the locations of mineelds than women, which is probably a reection of task distribution in the households. Surveyed spouses perception of the risk from mines and UXO indicates that men are more inclined to risk behaviour. Their answers to the question: Have you entered a mine suspected area? conrm that. 59% of surveyed men and 92% of surveyed women answered this question with never. Women who entered a suspected area did that together with their husbands or sons. Men do it alone or with other villagers, and more rarely with their family members.

QUESTION: HAVE YOU ENTERED A MINE SUSPECTED AREA? SURVEY RESULTS IN THE NUMBER OF ANSWERS 30
YES, REGULARLY YES, OCCASIONALLY YES, SEVERAL TIMES NO, NEVER

25

20

15

10

0 HUSBAND WIFE HUSBAND WIFE HUSBAND WIFE HUSBAND WIFE KAMENICA, TESLI MUNICIPALITY ULICE, BR KO DISTRICT KOVA ICA, TUZLA MUNICIPALITY SASE, SREBRENICA MUNICIPALITY

Graph 48: Risk behaviour entering a mine suspected area

Mine risk perception is a complex category that depends on a number of factors. This survey shows that it is under the inuence of education and the level of information that the inhabitants in affected communities dispose of. Perception is also affected by the inuence of family relations and distribution of tasks in the household. In any
315

See Appendices, Map 6: Risk perception by surveyed household members in Kamenica

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DARVIN LISICA

case existential reasons that inuence the psychological threshold in risk perception are the overriding factor causing a person to cross the line of acceptable risk. Under such circumstances, perception becomes the cause of risk behaviour. To change risk behaviour, it is necessary to change risk perception. Results that may be achieved in that sphere by implementing the measures of protection from mines and UXO are restricted, but necessary, bearing in mind the lingering nature of the problem of mines and UXO. The elimination of the negative impacts of war upon the socio-economic circumstances will lead to a change in perception, thus changing the risk behaviour of the population. Communication in the community affected by mines and UXO. Resistance of households and the entire community to the risks from mines and UXO depends on the level of development of the communication channels used to exchange information about mine hazards. It is a two-way communication, which includes a number of participants who appear as individuals or organised entities at the level of the community affected by mines and UXO. A survey examined the extent to which the channels for receiving and sending information aimed at households and affected individuals are compatible. According to the results obtained, the surveyed couples distinguish between the recipient and sender of mine hazard information.316 When surveyed persons want to inform about an observed mine hazard they do it as a matter of urgency. They would rst inform their family members and the police, after that those responsible in the local community and then the Mine Action Centre in Bosnia and Herzegovina. All surveyed communities have similar positions concerning this matter. There is no agreement of positions when it comes to the information providers from whom they wish to receive information about mine hazard. The surveyed persons chose the criterion of expertise and engagement in their community, which varies from one community to another. What remains is a more signicant participation of the police, the responsible persons in the local community and the Mine Action Centre in Bosnia and Herzegovina, which is in contact with the members of the affected community through its regional ofces. According to the results of the survey, the primary recipients and providers of mine hazard information reside in the community. They are the police and the responsible persons in the local community. They represent communication nodes and the agents directed towards secondary users or providers of information. The efciency of communication, as the measure for improving the protection from mines and UXO, depends on the quality of their work.

316

See Graph 49: Ranking of the recipients that the surveyed persons want to inform about mine hazard and Graph 50: Ranking of the providers from whom the surveyed persons want to receive information about mine hazard.

188

MINE ACTION PLANNING IN COMMUNITIES AFFECTED BY MINES AND ERW

QUESTION: WHO WOULD YOU INFORM FIRST IF YOU WERE TO RECEIVE INFORMATION ABOUT MINES?
100.00% 90.00% OTHER 80.00% 70.00% 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00%
HUSBAND WIFE HUSBAND WIFE HUSBAND WIFE HUSBAND WIFE KAMENICA, TESLI MUNICIPALITY ULICE, BR KO DISTRICT KOVA ICA, TUZLA MUNICIPALITY SASE, SREBRENICA MUNICIPALITY

WEIGHT ANALYSIS ACCORDING TO RANKED ANSWERS

MY NEIGHBOURS MEMBERS OF MY FAMILIY THE RESPONSIBLE IN THE LOCAL COMMUNITY RED CROSS MINE ACTION CENTRE EUFOR - INTERNATIONAL FORCES ARMY CIVIL PROTECTION POLICE

Graph 49: Ranking of the recipients that the surveyed persons want to inform about mine hazard

QUESTION: FROM WHOM DO YOU WANT TO RECEIVE INFORMATION ABOUT MINE HAZARD?
100.00% 90.00% 80.00% 70.00% 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% HUSBAND WIFE HUSBAND WIFE HUSBAND WIFE HUSBAND WIFE KAMENICA, TESLI MUNICIPALITY ULICE, BR KO DISTRICT KOVA ICA, TUZLA SASE, SREBRENICA MUNICIPALITY MUNICIPALITY I DO NOT KNOW NON-GOVERNMENTAL ORGANISATIONS DEMINERS MY NEIGHBOURS MEMBERS OF MY FAMILY THE RESPONSIBLE IN THE LOCAL COMMUNITY RED CROSS MINE ACTION CENTRE EUFOR - INTERNATIONAL FORCES ARMY CIVIL PROTECTION POLICE WEIGHT ANALYSISI ACCORDING TO RANKED ANSWERS

Graph 50: Ranking of the providers from whom the surveyed persons want to receive information about mine hazard

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Priorities of the community in solving mine and UXO problems. The setting of priorities for solving the problems with mines and UXO at the level of the affected community is a two-way process. Mine action policy is dened at the state level and implemented through the process of planning and deciding on the priority setting criteria. Through its representatives the affected community presents its needs and interests, which are then compared with the needs and interests of other communities in the municipality, region and a wider area. The priority setting criteria have so far focused on the reconstruction of houses, utilities and other infrastructure. Survey results reveal a somewhat different picture. Access to uncultivated land, the use of former pastures and forest properties have been marked as the most important priorities of the community in relation to mines and UXO. There is agreement between the surveyed spouses about priority setting in Kamenica, Kovaica and Sase. The situation is slightly different only in Ulice, where the persons surveyed dene reconstruction of houses as a somewhat more important priority, but there is actually no focus in priority setting. That is the result of mine action operations conducted in this community in 2004 and 2005, when the majority of blockages were removed, so that one cannot expect a consistent position of the community on the priorities for the residual risk from mines and UXO. The mine situation and socio-economic circumstances of the affected community form the context in which the problems caused by the existence of mines and UXO are solved. The consequences of conict, which are reected in a low standard of living, unemployment, return problems and other existential problems, form a part of it. They have a negative impact on the perception of the risk from mines and UXO. In the minds of affected groups, the need to preserve and restore family shifts the tolerance threshold in relation to the potential hazard from mines and UXO. Risk behaviour arising from such a situation is a consequence of the conscious decision to run the unacceptable risk. The survey reveals that it is not a question of individual cases, but of a collective practice that has settled in affected communities. It is difcult to prevent such behaviour, however, it can be reduced. Humanitarian demining is an expensive and slow process, which is why it is necessary to improve other mechanisms for the protection from mines and UXO. The relation of affected groups to mine hazard and the procedures they follow in a risk environment will depend on the extent of their active participation in the process of assessment, planning and deciding about priorities. Occasional information should be replaced by continuous communication, in which the professional bodies and non-governmental sector in charge of mine action will rely on the entities existent in the community representatives of the local community, school, the police and engaged individuals, as the primary holders of communication with the affected groups. Integrated approach in mine action planning encourages the engagement of groups and individuals from affected areas, as equal partners in the process of protection and reduction of the risk from mines and UXO.

190

WEIGHT ANALYSIS ACORDING TO RANKED ANSWERS

ACCESS TO UNCULTIVATED LAND USE OF FORMER PASTURES

USE OF FORMER ARABLE LAND WITH IRRIGATION

USE OF FORMER ARABLE LAND WITHOUT IRRIGATION

USE AND REPAIR OF ROADS

RECONSTRUCTION OF HOUSES DESTROYED IN THE WAR RECONSTRUCTION OF OTHER FACILITIES

BUILDING OF NEW HOUSES

BUILDING OF NEW FACILITIES

ACCESS TO DRINKING WATER

ACCESS TO WATHER FOR OTHER PURPOSES

CATTLE BREEDING

ACCESS TO FORESTS

KAMENICA, TESLI MUNICIPALITY 40.11% 17.65% 3.21% 3.14% 18.42% 2.59% 20.62% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.14% 8.19% 1.45% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.90% 4.64% 1.93% 3.07% 0.50% 21.74% 8.48% 7.49% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 19.72% 5.66% 7.23% 9.09% 52.17% 24.64% 47.68% 23.84% 28.02% 17.39% 27.64% 19.96%

HUSBAND 37.68% 13.04% 0.00% 6.76% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.89% 10.24% 0.00% 3.58% 1.45% 0.00% 0.00% 1.32% 0.00% 5.12%

0.00% 0.00% 4.39% 4.63% 0.00% 2.72% 7.73% 0.00%

6.52% 0.00% 1.34% 2.67% 0.00% 0.00% 15.94% 12.49%

0.00% 30.68% 0.00% 31.55% 0.00% 0.00% 0.67% 0.00% 0.00% 11.59% 0.99% 7.28% 0.00% 20.29% 0.00% 17.40%

WIFE

ULICE, BR KO DISTRICT

HUSBAND

10.04% 0.00% 0.00% 10.41% 0.00% 0.00% 5.80% 2.90% 0.00% 5.30% 2.65% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.80% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

WIFE

0.41% 20.73% 11.37%

KOVA ICA, TUZLA MUNICIPALITY

HUSBAND

WIFE

Table 18: Priorities of the community in solving problems with mines and UXO

SASE, SREBRENICA MUNICIPALITY

HUSBAND

WIFE

MINE ACTION PLANNING IN COMMUNITIES AFFECTED BY MINES AND ERW

LEGEND FOR PRIORITIES

1st priority category

2nd priority category

3rd priority category

REPAIR OF ROADS AND STREETS

5.31% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

CHILDREN9S GAMES IN THE VICINITY OF RISK AREAS

QUESTION: IN YOUR OPINION, WHAT IS MOST UNDER THE NEGATIVE INFLUENCE OF MINE HAZARD?

191

DARVIN LISICA

7.5.

Case studies of mine affected communities in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Case study: Ulice in the Brko District Location and characteristics of the affected community. The community of Ulice is located in the western part of Brko District. It totals 9.4 sq km and is formed by the hamlets of Rogozan, Stjepanovii, Pekii, Antunovii, Sadri-Lukii and Ulice Centre. According to the 1991 census, Ulice had 1,266 inhabitants, of which there were 1,108 Croats, 136 Serbs, 1 Bosniak and 21 others. There were around 400 households in ve hamlets and the centre of Ulice (Stjepanovii-around 80 houses, Pekii-around 30 houses, Sadrii-Lukii-around 80 houses, Antunovii-around 120 houses and Rogozan-around 40 houses, the centre of Ulice-around 50 houses). Pre war Ulice was one of the best developed communities in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The villagers had 100 tractors with ancillary machinery (picker trucks, sprayers, ploughs, harrows, disc harrows, trailers, etc.), 5 combine harvesters, several motor cultivators, etc. Ulice was known for the highest average number of haulers. Around 20 haulers disposed of more than 30 trucks, 6 excavators and power shovels, 2 telephone cable layers, several rollers and a number of other machines. The inhabitants were mainly engaged in agriculture, poultry breeding and pig farming. A signicant number of t inhabitants were temporarily employed in West European countries (Germany, Austria). The settlements had electricity, xed telephone and water. Before the war, the roads leading to Stjepanovii, Pekii, Antunovii and Rogozan were paved using personal funds of the inhabitants. There was a post ofce and telephone exchange in Ulice, which covered G. and D.Vuki, Lanita, Markovi Polje, Vitanovii and Rahi. All settlements had public lighting. A football club named Posavina Ulice existed, with developed facilities and a cultural centre was built just before the war. The primary school in Ulice was one of the best-equipped primary schools in the Brko area (the inhabitants built central heating and implemented a number of projects for arranging the building and the environment using their own funds) with rich library holdings. All residential and farm buildings in the local community of Ulice were destroyed during the war, the majority of machines, equipment, trucks and tractors were transported as war booty, and the entire infrastructure (roads, electrical network, telephone network and public lighting) was destroyed. Combat activities started in May 1992 between the ARBiH (Army of the Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina) and HVO (Croat Defence Council) on one side and VRS (Army of Republika Srpska) on the other. Until December 1992, combat lines gradually stabilised on the stretch between Lukii centre of the village (Ulice) - Bare (the village of Donji Vuki). In 192

MINE ACTION PLANNING IN COMMUNITIES AFFECTED BY MINES AND ERW

January 1993, the combat positions of the VRS extended from the village of Bukovac towards the northwest, in the direction Bujandria polje Lukii Purii - Rogozan. At the same time, the positions of the ARBiH and HVO were located south of the VRS in the direction Bujandri polje Pejini Gajevi (Ulice) Prahulje (Vitanovii) north of the village of Vitanovii Gornji Bukovac the hamlet of Bajii. No signicant changes of this situation took place until the end of the war.317 The reconstruction of Ulice started in 1998. In the opinion of the villagers, it was poorly organised. No organised information was provided to the displaced population and no construction works were carried out. The total of 280 residential buildings have now been reconstructed. According to the records of the Department for Refugees and Displaced Persons of the Brko District Government, about another 120 family houses are pending reconstruction. The telephone network has been reconstructed and a telephone exchange installed, which covers Ulice and ve surrounding settlements. The rst phase of building a culture centre in Ulice has been completed. A 2,300 metres long road Ulice-Rogozan Vitanovii, has been opened for trafc; the investor being the Government of the Brko District. The construction of this road was made possible after completing demining operations conducted by Norwegian Peoples Aid. The road connecting Ulice with the town is in a very bad condition and requires reconstruction. In 2003, a donation of polythene greenhouses, seedlings, chain saws for cutting wood and beater mills, depending on what each user had chosen, was made to around 30 users in the local community of Ulice through the USA Mercy Programme. According to the data from 2005, around 270 inhabitants live in 128 households of this community. The results of a survey conducted in 20% of randomly selected households conrm a high level of reconstruction of residential buildings, but not of other supporting buildings necessary for farming.318 The consequences of war still exert a great negative impact on living conditions and family standards. The survey also shows that the basic communal conditions have reached the level that existed in this community before the war.319

317

The disposition of forces of the warring parties is noticeable on Map 5: Ulice, Brko District planning and conducting mine action operations. The lower left corner shows a map of suspected areas with the situation, as it was before the demining started. The majority of mined areas are located between the lines of conict, so that the external borders of the suspected areas correspond to the battle array of the warring parties in 1993.

318 319

See Graph 51: Level of destruction of the facilities in surveyed households and their reconstruction in Ulice. See Graph 52: Communal conditions for surveyed households in Ulice.

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80.00% 70.00% 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00%

ULICE, BR KO LEVEL OF DESTRUCTION OF THE FACILITIES IN SURVEYED HOUSEHOLDS AND THEIR RECONSTRUCTION
COMPLETELY DESTROYED IN THE WAR PARTLY DESTROYED IN THE WAR FULLY RECONSTRUCTED PARTLY RECONSTRUCTED Based on the results of the survey conducted on 20% (26) randomly selected households in Ulice

GARAGE

CURING SHED

HOUSE

SHED

PIGSTRY

BARN

AVERYTHING DESTROYED

STABLE

CORN CRIB

Graph 51: Level of destruction of the facilities in surveyed households and their reconstruction in Ulice

100.00% 90.00% 80.00% 70.00% 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00%

ULICE, BR KO LIVING CONDITION IN THE COMMUNITY NOW BEFORE WAR

Based on the results of the survey conducted on 20% (26) randomly selected households in Ulice

ASPHALT ROAD LEADING TO THE HOUSEHOLD

MACADAM ROAD LEADING TO THE HOUSEHOLD

EARTH ROAD LEADING TO THE HOUSEHOLD

HOUSEHOLD HAS ELECTRICITY

ONLY FOOT PATH LEADING TO THE HOUSEHOLD

HOUSEHOLD HAS TELEPHONE LINE

Graph 52: Communal conditions for surveyed households in Ulice

194

HOUSEHOLD IS CONNECTED TO THE WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM

HOUSEHOLD USES SPRING WATER (WELL)

SUPPORTING FACILITIES

MINE ACTION PLANNING IN COMMUNITIES AFFECTED BY MINES AND ERW

Assessment of mine situation and planning. Intensive combat activities were carried out in the local community during the war, consequently a large area is contaminated by different types of anti-personnel and anti-armour mines and unexploded ordnance. There are 41 mineelds with 600 anti-personnel and 117 anti-tank mines recorded in the database of the Mine Action Centre in Bosnia and Herzegovina for the territory of Ulice. Results of general surveys and demining reports show that this is not the nal number of mineelds. Five mine victims were recorded in the time from the end of the war to the end of 2005, of which two were recorded as fatalities. The rst assessment of the risk from mines and UXO in Ulice was carried out in the second half of 2003, during the landmine impact survey in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The assessment was made by the Mine Action Centre in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Regional Ofce Brko. A mine action plan was developed based on this assessment at the end of 2003. Ulice is the rst highly affected community in which a mine action plan has been implemented. The non-governmental organisation Norwegian Peoples Aid took over its implementation. The plan was revised and amended just before the launch of humanitarian demining activities. 24 locations at risk from mines were identied, with the total area of 2.2 sq km, which makes 23.4% of the community territory.

In November 2005 a survey was conducted using a 20% pattern or 26 randomly selected households.320 There are 86 members living in the surveyed households, or 3.31 on the average. That is 55.48% of the pre-war number of household members and it is 2.5 times higher than the return rate in the community, which amounts to 21.33%. The reason is that entire families have not returned. They live either in Croatia, or in other countries, so that the survey only generalises the data for the households permanently residing in Ulice. Around 44% of the population hold primary school qualications and around 34% do not have any formal education. Around 25% of the population completed their secondary school education. 55.93% of members of the surveyed households are unemployed. The average monthly income of the surveyed households in Ulice amounts to 392 KM. Mine action results. The non-governmental organisation Norwegian Peoples Aid (NPA) launched the implementation of the mine action plan in March 2004. The plan was implemented in two phases. The rst implementation phase was completed in 2004. 853,147 m2 of land was demined in this phase (mine clearance: 215,543 m2 and technical survey: 637,604 m2). In the second phase, which was implemented in 2005, NPA demined 1,160,656 m2 of land (mine clearance: 274,742 m2 and technical survey: 885,914 m2). The risk from mines and UXO has currently been reduced to the lowest level possible. All rst category risk areas have been demined, and the remaining areas (forests) have been marked using permanent markers (freestanding signs). The size of the land marked is 1,140,656 m2.
320

The survey was conducted with the assistance of teams from the non-governmental organisation Norwegian Peoples Aid.

195

DARVIN LISICA

Map 5: Ulice, Brko District planning and conducting mine action operations

In the course of implementing the demining operations, NPA actively worked on warning the population of mines and UXO. They worked with all target groups, which were suspected to likely come into contact with mines and mined areas. No mine and demining accident whatsoever took place in the course of the operations, which is a result of a planned and systematic approach to conducting mine action operations in this local community. 196

MINE ACTION PLANNING IN COMMUNITIES AFFECTED BY MINES AND ERW

The result of the integrated approach in mine action applied in Ulice, is two-sided and reects in the reduction of the risk from mines and UXO and a positive socio-economic impact. Through demining and undertaking extensive marking measures, the risk from mines and UXO for the population has been reduced to an acceptable level. The roads leading to the local community and those between the settlements of the community have been opened, as well as passages through forests for faster access to agricultural land. By clearing mines from the agricultural land conditions have been created for agricultural production that will stimulate other kinds of production (poultry breeding, pig farming, etc.) and the sustainability of return for the local population. Conditions have also been created for hunting and the development of hunting tourism. It is to be expected that the improved living conditions, given the minimum risk from mines and UXO, would stimulate the return of other inhabitants. Case study: Kamenica in the Municipality of Tesli Location and characteristics of the affected community. Kamenica is located in the south-eastern part of the Municipality of Tesli. Its size is 22.19 sq km, and it is formed of the hamlets of Dubrave, Gae, Mijii, Selmani, Trzna and Dizelovii. 1,800 inhabitants in 480 households lived in the community before the war. There were around 80% of Bosniaks, 15% of Croats and 5% of Serbs. The population was mainly engaged in self-sufciency farming, while the men who were t for work worked in other countries (Iraq, Iran, Slovenia and Croatia). The settlements had electricity, xed telephone and a water supply system. There was a primary school in Kamenica. In the period between May and August of 1992 combat activities between the ARBiH and VRS were conducted on the stretch Slatinska glava Smolin Vukove njive Matinski vis Lipova glava Kota kr Hatkinje njive Gavrani, when this community came into the hands of the VRS, the civilian population left their homes and took refuge in epe and Zenica. 28 members of this community were killed and 200 wounded in the combat activities during the war. The majority of houses and infrastructure were destroyed. The process of return and reconstruction started in 1999. Six families returned to the hamlet of Mijii, two families to Dubrave, one family to Gae, around one hundred families to Selmani, ninety families to Trzna and around 180 families to Dizelovii. According to the data from 2005, there are around 1,500 inhabitants in 380 households in the community, of which 245 households with around 1,100 inhabitants are permanently inhabited. The results of the survey conrm a high level of reconstruction of residential buildings, but not of other supporting buildings necessary for farming.321 The consequences of war still have a great negative impact on the living conditions and family standards. Reconstruction of residential and other buildings for the remaining 135 households is underway.
321

See Graph 53: The level of destruction of the facilities in surveyed households and their reconstruction in Kamenica

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DARVIN LISICA

80.00% 70.00% 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00%

KAMENICA, TESLI LEVEL OF DESTRUCTION OF THE FACILITIES IN SURVEYED HOUSEHOLDS AND THEIR RECONSTRUCTION
COMPLETELY DESTROYED IN THE WAR PARTLY DESTROYED IN THE WAR FULLY RECONSTRUCTED PARTLY RECONSTRUCTED Based on the results of the survey conducted on 10% (25) randomly selected households in Kamenica

GARAGE

CURING SHED

Graph 53: The level of destruction of the facilities in surveyed households and their reconstruction in Kamenica

100.00% 90.00% 80.00% 70.00% 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00%

KAMENICA, TESLI LIVING CONDITION IN THE COMMUNITY

Based on the results of the survey conducted on 10% (25) randomly selected households in Kamenica

NOW BEFORE WAR

ASPHALT ROAD LEADING TO THE HOUSEHOLD

MACADAM ROAD LEADING TO THE HOUSEHOLD

EARTH ROAD LEADING TO THE HOUSEHOLD

HOUSEHOLD HAS TELEPHONE LINE

ONLY FOOT PATH LEADING TO THE HOUSEHOLD

HOUSEHOLD HAS ELECTRICITY

Graph 54: Communal conditions for surveyed households in Kamenica

198

HOUSEHOLD IS CONNECTED TO THE WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM

HOUSEHOLD USES SPRING WATER (WELL)

EVERITHING DESTROYED

HOUSE

SHED

STABLE

BARN

CORN CRIB

SHOP

MINE ACTION PLANNING IN COMMUNITIES AFFECTED BY MINES AND ERW

The school, attended by 180 pupils, has been reconstructed. Electricity and telephone systems have also been reconstructed. A surgery has been built, however, it has not yet started operating. According to the results of the survey, the basic communal conditions have reached their pre-war level in this community.322 Around 80% of the population is engaged in agriculture and cattle breeding. The villagers are organised in an agricultural association, milk sales are guaranteed to them and they have a relatively good placement of lambs and calves. The villagers pursue collect forest berries (medicinal herbs, mushrooms, blueberries, etc.) for sale and personal use. Assessment of mine situation and planning. The largest number of registered mineelds was placed by the VRS in the southern and southeastern part of the community. A total of seven mine suspected locations, with the size of 2.85 sq km have been identied. According to the assessment, 450 mines were emplaced, mainly anti-personnel, with a smaller number of PROM-1 mines. Two mine accidents have taken place so far. In 1999, at the beginning of the return process, a woman was wounded when an anti-personnel mine was activated and she sustained severe injuries of the lower extremities. It was a PMA-2 mine placed intentionally. The second mine accident took place during wood cutting in Dubrave. Two brothers from the neighbouring village of Kopice in the Municipality of Maglaj were the victims, one was fatally wounded and the other sustained severe injuries of the lower extremities. The non-governmental organisation Anti-Mine Initiative from Brko made an assessment of the risk from mines and UXO and prepared a mine risk education plan for Kamenica in September 2005. After making the preliminary assessment, additional data were gathered by means of an interview, survey and tour of suspected locations. The survey was carried out using a pattern of 10% or 25 randomly selected households and it roughly reects the situation in the community.323 The surveyed households number 114 members or 4.92% on the average, which is 92.27% of the pre-war number and matches the return rate in the community. Somewhat more than 50% of members of the surveyed households hold only primary school qualications, around 15% do not have any formal education, and around 25% completed secondary school education. 61.25% of the surveyed persons are unemployed and the average monthly houshold income is 181KM. Identication, description and assessment of mines and UXO are completed as is the level of priority and selection of the risks which will be treated. It has been established that the greatest risks are conected with the potential activation of PROM-1 antiperonnel bounching mines. The greatest probabilities of accidents are during wood cutting and removal from the location of Duba, Kr, Dubrava, Lunica; during the gathering of forest fruits from the location
322 323

See Graph 54: Communal conditions for surveyed households in Kamenica

The survey was conducted with the assistance of teams from the non-governmental organisation Anti-Mine Initiative Brko

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of Dubrava, Kr, Bujadine, Pristanci Goe and during hunting in Slatinska glava, Rudo, Jerkovac, istine, Torovi i Smolin. The four most endangered group are: 1. Adult male population engaged in cutting timber. This group has been classied under very high level of impact. A difcult economic situation forces the population to provide rewood by cutting trees. This activity lasts during the whole year. Only three inhabitants have forest property and the others are forced to illegally scavenge. The survey reveals that they are aware of the risks from mines and UXO, but they take the risk since they have no alternative. 2. School-age children. Out of 250 children, 180 attend the primary school in Kamenica, and 80 the secondary school in Tesli. This group has been classied under very high level of impact. Children are exposed to risk when helping their parents in performing daily activities and when playing in their free time. The children are periodically warned about the mine hazard in their classes. This activity is neither constant nor sufcient, especially due to a small number of placed mine markers. 3. Collectors of forest berries. Around 150 inhabitants are engaged in collecting forest berries, which is one way of ensuring income. All capable household members, including children, perform this activity. This group has been classied under very high level of impact. They have seen mines and informed local authorities on a number of occasions. 4. Hunters. This group has been classied under high level of impact. The hunting club numbers 46 hunters. This number doubles during the hunting season since hunters come from other parts of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Members of this group are well informed of the mine situation in the community. A number of cases of risk behaviour, when the hunters removed mines on their own accord or tried to activate them by shooting, have been registered. The level of protection from mines and UXO in Kamenica is very low. There are no prepared demining projects and no location has been demined. Mine risk education of the population is poor and a total of 4 signs have been placed for emergency marking of suspected areas on the location of Bujadine. The plan of mine risk education that has been prepared provides for activation of available resources in the community, relying on school and the hunting association. The engagement of the non-governmental sector is needed for training teachers and affected groups to undertake the measures of protection from mines and UXO. Since suspected areas are not the priority for demining, it is necessary to undertake more extensive measures for their marking. Conclusion for the case studies. The examples of the communities affected by mines and UXO analysed in the case studies show how the assessment and planning system has developed at the level of the affected community. 200

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The assessment and mine action plans for Ulice in the Brko District were developed at the end of 2003 by the Mine Action Centre in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The then risk assessment was founded on the general survey procedures. The assessment of affected groups and the measurement of the level of impact on them were not conducted, since this procedure was not developed at that time. In addition to providing general information about the situation in the community, identication of hazards from mines and UXO was made, based on which the mine action plan was developed. The implementation of this plan in practice was important for further development of integrated planning of mine action operations. The experiences acquired have been built into further development of planning at the level of the community affected by mines and UXO. Kamenica in the Municipality of Tesli is a completely different case. This is also a highly affected community in which no demining activities have taken place, except for several signs put up as mine warnings. Mine risk education activities have been reduced to informing children about mine hazards during the classes they have with their class teachers. Suspected areas have been identied by a systematic survey, but a detailed collection of data and their assessment in a general survey have not been carried out. The risk assessment was made by the non-governmental organisation Anti Mine Initiative from Brko and not by the Mine Action Centre in Bosnia and Herzegovina, which assumes a different role, and that is the quality control of the process. An assessment of the situation in the community was made, including risk identication, assessment and characterisation of affected groups and the community, risk evaluation, and a risk register was prepared. By introducing these procedures, risk management has been introduced to the assessment of mine situation. The example of Kamenica shows the way in which the non-governmental sector and members of the community affected by mines and UXO are included into the process of assessment and planning. These changes change the system of priority setting. The process of deciding about priorities becomes more transparent, measurable and involves the most important stakeholders. Risk management, in its essence, is the way to set priorities in a situation when material, nancial and other resources for urgent resolution of the mine and UXO problems are insufcient. These two case studies show the extent to which priority setting depends on successful identication of the sources of risks from mines and UXO.

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8.

THE MINE AND UXO RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL AND MINE ACTION PLANNING IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA

The system for assessing the problem of mines and UXO in Bosnia and Herzegovina is a complex system made of three parts: strategic, operational and the subsystem for assessment and planning in the community affected by mines and UXO. The subsystem for assessment and planning at the strategic level was completed in 2004, by the adoption of the revised Mine Action Strategy in B&H. No substantial changes to the set model should be expected before 2008, when the preparation of plans for the new strategic cycle 2009-2014 will start. Assessment and planning at the operational level are more subject to change than at the strategic level. Although the operational level is connected with the strategic level and there is a clear communication betwen them, its further development is to be expected. General survey will remain the fundamental process of data gathering, whether at individual locations or as part of integrated planning in affected communities. Integrated planning in the mine-affected community will develop towards the application of new assessment and planning techniques and towards planning of a quality management system. Operational planning at the state and lower levels relies on strategy, on one hand, and on the integrated planning and priority setting process on the other. To what extent the relations among these subsystems and their parts will function depends on the success of planning management. Prerequisites for applying the concept of planning management have been created. The subsystems are stable, with clear mutual relations and a clear hierarchy. The system has still not sufciently included various interest groups in the assessment and planning process, so that its further development in that direction is expected. Different levels of authority will express their interests in taking part in the decision making process to the extent to which they take responsibility for the mine problem. The role of the non-governmental sector will grow, whether it reects in the support to the holders of mine action planning or in dening the interests of citizens in the process of making decisions about priorities. Demining and other organisations are already getting involved in the process of planning management, with the clear interest to use their capacities in the best way possible. It is a strong cohesion between the operational and strategic levels and communication among all parts of the system that distinguishes the Bosnian and Herzegovinian model of the system for the assessment of the problem of mines and UXO and mine action planning from the models of other countries. The characteristic of this model is that communication takes place under conditions of risk, and success in its application depends on the quality of communication. 202

MINE ACTION PLANNING IN COMMUNITIES AFFECTED BY MINES AND ERW

OPERATIONAL LEVEL
GENERAL ASSESSMNET OF MINE SITUATION

SYSTEMATIC SUVEY
SUSPECTED AREA

GENERAL SURVEY
PROJECTS (TECHNICAL SURVEY, VLEARANCE, MARKING, MRE)

LANDMINE IMPACT SURVEY

REGISTRY OF AFFECTED COMMUNITIES

INTEGRATED PLANNING IN THE AFFECTED COMMUNITY

MINE ACTION PLAN FOR THE AFFECTED COMMUNITY

STRATEGIC LEVEL
STRATEGIC ANALYSIS
CREATION OF STRATEGIC OPTIONS EVALUATION AND STRATEGIC SELECTION

PRIORITY SETTING

LIST OF PRIORITIES OPERATIONAL PLAN FOR HUMANITARIAN DEMINING

MINE ACTION STRATEGY

ANNUAL PLAN OF MINE ACTION

OPERATIONAL PLAN FOR MINE RISK EDUCATION

Graphic 14: System for the assessment of the problem of mines and UXO and mine action planning in B&H

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CONCLUDING REMARKS

Mines and ERW have a negative impact on the health and life of the population, reconstruction of the country and quality of life, as the fundamental social values. Achieving success in reducing that negative impact is the task of mine action operations. The mines and ERW left over in Bosnia and Herzegovina are a consequence of the aggression and war that resulted from the break-up of Yugoslavia. According to the resources used, the manner of warfare and moral norms applied by the participants in the war, it was a conventional and long war. Poor mobility favoured the formation of fronts and creation of the conditions for mine emplacement. Massive use of mines was followed by inexpert mine laying, without exerting any signicant inuence on the course of combat activities. A comparison of the character of conict and the nature of mines and ERW contamination in Bosnia and Herzegovina and south-eastern Europe with the characteristics of other countries in the world indicates the need to pay more attention to the global context in which mine action operations are conducted. Findings conrm the dependence between the duration of conict and the size of suspected area. The number of mines and UXO and the number and distribution of mineelds depend on the objectives of war, its character from the standpoint of the international law and the political situation in which combat activities are conducted. An analysis has also revealed that the availability of data about mineelds and their quality decrease as the number of conict participants increases. That shows that the character of conict inuences the characteristics of mine contamination (size, shape and disposition of mine suspected areas), the availability and quality of data about mineelds. According to the analysis of the past results of protection from mines and UXO, carried out in a number of affected countries, the method of reducing the risk from mines is most important for achieving success in conducting mine action operations. Mine action planning and the denition of its priorities are hence the most sensitive part of the process of making decisions that will have a signicant impact on subsequent results. According to the general assessment of mine situation, the problem of leftover mines and UXO in Bosnia and Herzegovina is of a long-term character. The mines laid in Bosnia and Herzegovina and other countries of southeastern Europe created after the break-up of Yugoslavia originate either from the storehouses of the former JNA, or from the war production of mines of similar type, purpose and characteristics as the mines produced before the war. The dynamics of laying mineelds in Bosnia and Herzegovina increased gradually from the beginning to the end of the war. At the time of peace negotiations, the intensity of laying mineelds reached the lowest

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point, it increased after the negotiations failed, and reached its maximum before the start of new negotiations. The role of mineelds was more to hold territories, waiting for the results of negotiations, than to inuence the course of combat activities. The largest number of mineelds was laid in the summer and autumn of 1995. The leftover mines and UXO have a great impact on the society in Bosnia and Herzegovina and its economy. One fourth of populated places and one third of the population in Bosnia and Herzegovina have been affected by mines and UXO. Around 4% of the state territory is suspected as being contaminated by mines. According to the comparative analysis of mine density and exposure to the risk from mines and UXO in relation to the size of the territory, the number of inhabitants and the number of victims, Bosnia and Herzegovina is among to the most affected countries in the world. One of the greatest problems in building the system for protection from mines and UXO is a lack of information about all mineelds, their locations, positions, types and the number of mines. Records exist for about one third of mineelds. Calculations show that there are still 29 to 35 thousand mineelds in Bosnia and Herzegovina with around 550 thousand mines. Mine action operations in Bosnia and Herzegovina started in mid-1996, after the end of the war. The United Nations conducted mine action operations until mid-1998. After the appointment of the Demining Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina, a local structure of entity centres and a state centre for mine clearance were established in mid-1998. The Demining Law enacted in 2002 created conditions for improving the system of mine action management. The past structure was included in a single Mine Action Centre in Bosnia and Herzegovina, strategic planning was introduced and the quality management system improved. Humanitarian demining is a dominant component of mine action operations in Bosnia and Herzegovina. By applying various levels of mineeld surveys and their clearance, the land and facilities contaminated by mines and UXO are restored to the population. Application of new risk assessment and decision-making techniques, drawn from the theory and practice of risk management, has improved mine action. Identication of mineelds has advanced and their area is dened more precisely. The number of detected mines per unit of land has increased and priority setting is of a better quality. More efcient and exible planning and the improved quality of demining operations have a positive impact on the use of available demining resources and win more trust of the authorities, donors and other interested parties. The result of this approach to solving the mine problem is the annual growth of the demined area in Bosnia and Herzegovina, which is one of the most important indicators of success in mine action management. Mine risk education, as a partner component of mine action, is also growing in importance. The focus is being transferred from providing public information and education in schools to the community affected by mines and UXO and its needs. The local non-governmental sector, which is becoming a partner in the risk assessment and planning of necessary activities, plays an important role in that process. The 205

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analysis of the contents of messages has revealed that insisting on a message, as the most important resource for changing behaviour, has not produced expected results. A change in the behaviour of affected groups in Bosnia and Herzegovina depends on the change of their risk perception that has its psychological, social and cultural dimension. The system for assisting the victims of mines and UXO also relies on the non-governmental sector. Improvements in legal regulations and work coordination are necessary in this area. Risk analysis included the strategic level and the level of mine affected communities. At the strategic level the exposure of countries to the risk from mines and UXO was analysed. By means of this method the sources of risk were identied and evaluated, and the data about risk perception, risk behaviour and communication were analysed. Its application on the results of surveys conducted in mine affected communities has revealed that the socio-economic consequences of conict have an impact on risk perception by affected population groups, and thereby also on their behaviour which is one of the basic sources of risk. Risk analysis also included the problem of priority setting, as its resolution is important for successful mine action management. Case studies included two typical communities in Bosnia and Herzegovina affected by mines and UXO. The studies analysed the application of assessment and decisionmaking techniques in risk management in real situations. Risk identication, assessment and characterisation of affected groups, and risk evaluation have been introduced in the assessment of the impact of mines and UXO, as the rst phase in mine action planning. Changes in assessment and planning have lead to a different perception of mine action at the level of the community affected by mines and UXO. Different components of mine action are integrated into a single plan, which endeavours to exploit the available resources in the best way possible and multiply the results by their mutual interaction. The process of priority setting becomes more transparent, measurable and involves the most important interest groups. The examination of these two models, the one that has already been applied in practice, and the other whose application has only started, has conrmed the importance of successful identication of the risk from mines and UXO for priority setting in mine action operations. By means of the method of modelling the system for planning mine action operations at the strategic and operational levels, as well as at the level of the community affected by mines and UXO, has been shaped. The subsystems are stable, with clear mutual relations and a clear hierarchy. That is what distinguishes the Bosnia and Herzegovina model of assessment of the problem of mines and UXO and mine action planning from the models of other countries - a strong cohesion between the operational and strategic levels and clear communication channels among all parts of the system. Prerequisites have been created for further improvements, which need to be directed towards more dynamic and exible planning that will include various interest groups. The process of mine action planning in Bosnia and Herzegovina is passing 206

THE MINE AND UXO RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL AND MINE ACTION PLANNING IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA

through transformation from a relatively static concept of planning into a planning management concept. The entire social and economic development of the country depends on solving the problem of leftover mines and UXO. Mines and UXO inuence the safety and health of the population. Restricted return to their earlier places of residence and restricted use of natural and other resources raise the poverty threshold. Economic development, infrastructural and communication development have been slowed down by the existence of mineelds. Their clearance is a precondition for the implementation of development projects and foreign investments. Bosnia and Herzegovina will not be able to clear all mineelds, regardless of the obligation taken over by signing the Ottawa Convention to clear all leftover mines by 2009. Should the current growth trend in humanitarian demining continue, it would take at least 25 to 30 years to clear all the mineelds. Funding of mine action is another restrictive factor. The funds needed to clear all the mineelds have been estimated at around 1 to 1.2 billion convertible marks, which makes this solution non-realistic for a longer period of time. What is then the acceptable risk for Bosnia and Herzegovina and how much does it cost? The Mine Action Strategy of Bosnia and Herzegovina for 2005-2009 plans 245.35 million convertible marks for mine action operations, which would be used to demine 73.6 sq km and reduce the total suspected area by 716.4 sq km, or to 60% in comparison with the situation at the beginning of 2005. A larger part of this reduction of the suspected area would be a result of a more precise identication and assessment of the risk from mines and UXO. Humanitarian demining will be directed towards the priorities that enable the creation of a safe environment for the citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina and do not signicantly restrict the economic progress of the country. That is the acceptable risk for Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2009.

Mine action will constitute a capital investment in the social and economic development of the country insofar as priorities are successfully dened. In the past period priorities related to the humanitarian aspect safety and health of the population and sustainable return. There now follows a time in which the priorities related to the development of the country will dominate, in which the local entities and economy, especially the private sector, will be more involved in funding mine action operations.

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ACRONYMS

ARBiH AS/NZS BHMAC CBR CIA DDA DPKO EOQ EOR ERW FAO FMEA GICHD HALO HVO IACG-MA ICBL ICRC IFOR IMAS ISO/IEC ITF JNA JRS LMVA LSN

Army of the Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina The Australian and New Zealand Standard Bosnia and Herzegovina Mine Action Centre Centre for Community Based Rehabilitation Central Intelligence Agency United Nations Department for Disarmament Affairs United Nations Department of Peacekeeping Operations European Organisation for Quality Explosive Remnants of War Explosive Remnants of War Food and Agricultural Organisation Failure Modes and Effects Analysis Geneva International Centre for Humanitarian Demining The Hazardous Area Life-Support Organization - HALO Trust Croat Defence Council Inter-Agency Coordination Group on Mine Action International Campaign to Ban Landmines international nongovernmental organisation International Committee of the Red Cross Implementation Forces in Bosnia and Herzegovina International Mine Action Standards International Organization for Standardization International Trust Fund for Demining and Mine Victims Assistance seated in Slovenia Yugoslav Peoples Army Jesuit Refugee organisation Service International non-governmental

Landmine Victims Assistance one of ve mine action components Landmine Survivors network non-governmental organisation

208

ACRONYMS

MAG MASG MEP MKCK MRE MRUD NES NERAM NPA NUS OCHA OHCHR OSAGI VQ PEST PMA-1A PMA-2 PMA-3 PMR-1 PMR-2 PMR-2A(S) PMR-3 PMR-4 PPMP-2 PROM-1(P) PROM-2 PRSP SAD

Mines Advisory Group non-governmental organisation for mine action Mine Action Support Group forum of donor countries with the UN Mine obstacle International Committee of the Red Cross Mine Risk Education one of ve mine action components Anti-personnel fragmentation directional mine Abandoned Explosive Ordnance Network for Environmental Risk Assessment and Management Norwegian Peoples Aid Unexploded Ordnance Ofce for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs Ofce of the High Commissioner for Human Rights Ofce of the Special Adviser to the Secretary-General on Gender Issues and Advancement of Women sterreichische Vereinigung fr Qualittssicherung Austrian Association for Quality Assurance P-Political/Legal, E-Economic, S-Socio/Cultural and T-Technological Forces, technique used in strategic management to analyse the external Anti-Personnel Pressure Mine Anti-Personnel Pressure Mine Anti-Personnel Pressure Mine Anti-Personnel Fragmentation Mine Anti-Personnel Fragmentation Mine Anti-Personnel Fragmentation (Illuminating) Mine Anti-Personnel Fragmentation Mine Anti-Personnel Fragmentation Mine Anti-Personnel Fragmentation Mine Anti-Personnel Bounding Fragmentation Mine Anti-Personnel Bounding Fragmentation Mine Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers United States of America

209

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SFOR SFRJ SWOT TIP 72 TMD-B TMD-44 TMA-1A TMA-2A TMA-3 TMA-4 TMA-5(A) TMM-1A TMPR-6 UN UNDP UNHCR UNICEF UNMAC UNMAS UNOPS VRS WB WFP WHO

Stabilisation Forces in Bosnia and Herzegovina Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia S-Strengths, W-Weaknesses, O-Opportunities and T-Threats, analysis (matrix) used in strategic planning to evaluate and compare external Anti-Tank Anti-Magnetic Mine (Chinese) Anti-Tank Anti-Magnetic Mine (Soviet) Anti-Tank Anti-Magnetic Mine (Soviet) Anti-Tank Anti-Magnetic Mine Anti-Tank Anti-Magnetic Mine Anti-Tank Anti-Magnetic Mine Anti-Tank Anti-Magnetic Mine Anti-Tank Anti-Magnetic Mine Anti-Tank Metal Mine Anti-tank shaped charge mine United Nations United Nations Development Programme Ofce of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees United Nations Childrens Fund United Nations Mine Action Centre United Nations Mine Action Service, within DPKO United Nations Ofce for Project Services Army of Republic of Srpska World Bank World Food Programme World Health Organisation

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GLOSSARY OF TECHNICAL TERMS

GLOSSARY OF TECHNICAL TERMS TERM

DEFINITION Systematic use of available information to identify hazards and to estimate the risk. SOURCE ISO 51:1999 AS/NZS 4360:1999 ISO 73:2002 AS/NZS 4360:1999 ISO 73:2002 ISO 51:1999 AS/NZS 4360:1999

Risk analysis

A systematic use of available information to determine how often specied events may occur and the magnitude of their consequences. Systematic use of information to identify sources and to estimate the risk; provides the basis for risk evaluation, risk treatment and risk acceptance. An incident or situation, which occurs in a particular place during a particular interval of time. Occurrence of a particular set of circumstances. Process based on risk analysis to determine whether the tolerable risk has been achieved.

Event

Risk evaluation

The process used to determine risk management priorities by comparing the level of risk against predetermined standards, target risk levels or other criteria. A group of activities, which are related and accorded in order to gather data and process information about mine danger without the use of demining methods. During this survey, information of the whereabouts and main characteristics of areas suspected to be mined are stated. General survey is the investigation of information already existing and new information gathered about suspect areas in order to identify risk areas and areas without obvious risk.

BHMAC SOP

General survey

Standar d for Mine Clearance and EOD Operations in B&H AS/NZS 4360:1999 AS/NZS 4360:1999 ISO 73:2002 AS/NZS 4360:1999

Loss Risk Identication Risk avoidance

Any negative consequence, nancial or otherwise. The process of determining what can happen, why and how. Process to nd, list and characterize elements of risk. An informed decision not to become involved in a risk situation.

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Risk communication

Exchange or sharing of information about risk between the decision-maker and other stakeholders. That part of risk management which involves the implementation of policies, standards, procedures and physical changes to eliminate or minimize adverse risks. Actions implementing risk management decisions.

ISO 73:2002

Risk control

AS/NZS 4360:1999 ISO 73:2002 ISO 73:2002

Risk criteria

Terms of reference by which the signicance of risk is assessed. A munition designed to be placed under, on or near the ground or other surface area and to be exploded by the presence, proximity or contact of a person or a vehicle. An area of ground containing mines laid with or without a pattern. Means used to reduce risk. Used as a qualitative description of probability or frequency. To check, supervise, observe critically, or record the progress of an activity, action or system on a regular basis in order to identify change. Use of a product, process or service in accordance with information provided by the supplier. Explosive ordnance that has been primed, fused, armed or otherwise prepared for use or used. It may have been red, dropped, launched or projected yet remains unexploded either through malfunction or design or for any other reason. An undesired event which results in harm. Process used to assign values to the probability and consequences. Circumstance in which people, property or the environment are exposed to one or more hazards. Potential source of harm.

Mine

IMAS 04.10.

Mineeld Protective measure Likelihood Monitor Intended use

IMAS 04.10. ISO 51:1999 AS/NZS 4360:1999 AS/NZS 4360:1999 ISO 51:1999

Unexploded ordnance

IMAS 04.10.

Accident Risk estimation Hazardous situation Hazard

IMAS 04.10. ISO 73:2002 ISO 51:1999 ISO 51:1999 AS/NZS 4360:1999

A source of potential harm or a situation with a potential to cause loss.

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GLOSSARY OF TECHNICAL TERMS

Tolerable risk

Risk which is accepted in a given context based on current values of society. The outcome of an event expressed qualitatively or quantitatively, being a loss, injury, disadvantage or gain. There may be a range of possible outcomes associated with an event. Outcome of an event. Selection and implementation of appropriate options for dealing with risk. Process of selection and implementation of measures to modify risk. Risk remaining after protective measures have been taken. The remaining level of risk after risk treatment measures have been taken. The risk remaining after risk treatment. An informed decision to accept the consequences and the likelihood of a particular risk. Decision to accept a risk. Shifting the responsibility or burden for loss to another party through legislation, contract, insurance or other means. Risk transfer can also refer to shifting a physical risk or part thereof elsewhere. Sharing with another party the burden of loss, or benet of gain, for a risk.

ISO 51:1999 AS/NZS 4360:1999 ISO 73:2002 AS/NZS 4360:1999 ISO 73:2002 ISO 51:1999 AS/NZS 4360:1999 ISO 73:2002 AS/NZS 4360:1999 ISO 73:2002

Consequence

Risk treatment

Residual risk

Risk acceptance

Risk transfer

AS/NZS 4360:1999

ISO 73:2002

Risk management process

The systematic application of management policies, procedures and practices to the tasks of establishing the context, identifying, analysing, evaluating, treating, monitoring and communicating risk. Overall process comprising a risk analysis and a risk evaluation.

AS/NZS 4360:1999

ISO 51:1999 AS/NZS 4360:1999 ISO 73:2002 IMAS 04.10.

Risk assessment

The overall process of risk analysis and risk evaluation. Overall process of risk analysis and risk evaluation.

Anti-personnel mines

A mine designed to be exploded by the presence, proximity or contact of a person and that will incapacitate, injure or kill one or more persons.

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Mine action comprises ve complementary groups of activities: 1. 2. 3. Mine risk education, Humanitarian demining, comprising: mine clearance, survey, mapping, marking. Landmine victims assistance; rehabilitation and reintegration, Stockpile destruction, Advocacy against the use of anti-personnel mines.

Mine action

IMAS 04.10.

4. 5.

Reasonably foreseeable misuse

The objective is to reduce the risk from antipersonnel mines, to ensure safe living, where mines will not pose an obstacle to the development of economy, society and health care, and where the victims needs will be addressed. Other activities are also needed to implement these ve components of mine action: situation assessment and planning, the mobilisation and prioritisation of resources, information gathering and management, human skills development and management training, quality management and the application of effective, appropriate and safe equipment. Use of a product, process or service in a way not intended by the supplier, but which may result from readily predictable human behaviour. Combination of the probability of occurrence of harm and the severity of that harm. The chance of something happening that will have an impact upon objectives. It is measured in terms of consequences and likelihood. Combination of the probability of an event and its consequence. Freedom from unacceptable risk.

ISO 51:1999 ISO 51:1999 AS/NZS 4360:1999 ISO 73:2002 ISO 51:1999

Risk

Safety

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GLOSSARY OF TECHNICAL TERMS

Risk management system Risk reduction

Set of elements of an organizations management system concerned with managing risk. A selective application of appropriate techniques and management principles to reduce either likelihood of an occurrence or its consequences, or both. An area dened based on the analysis of available information about the possible mine hazard, which presents the basis for general survey operations.??? Dont have original Physical injury or damage to the health of people, or damage to property or the environment. Occurrence in which a hazardous situation results in harm. Direct and indirect, involving any negative impact, including money, time, labour, disruption, goodwill, political and intangible losses. A measure of the rate of occurrence of an event expressed as the number of occurrences of an event in a given time. The culture, processes and structures that are directed towards the effective management of potential opportunities and adverse effects. Coordinated activities to direct and control an organization with regard to risk. The likelihood of a specic event or outcome, measured by the ratio of specic events or outcomes to the total number of possible events or outcomes. Probability is expressed as a number between 0 and 1, with 0 indicating an impossible event or outcome and 1 indicating an event or outcome is certain.?? Extent to which an event is likely to occur. Intentionally or unintentionally retaining the responsibility for loss, or nancial burden of loss within the organization. Public support, recommendation or positive publicity with the aim of removing or at least reducing, the risk from, and the impact of, mines and ERW. Those people and organizations who may affect, be affected by, or perceive themselves to be affected by, a decision or activity. Any individual, group or organization that can affect, be affected by, or perceive itself to be affected by a risk.

ISO 73:2002

AS/NZS 4360:1999 Demining Strategy in B&H ISO 51:1999 ISO 51:1999 AS/NZS 4360:1999 AS/NZS 4360:1999 AS/NZS 4360:1999 ISO 73:2002

Suspected area Harm Harmful event Cost of activities Frequency

Risk management

Probability

AS/NZS 4360:1999

ISO 73:2002 AS/NZS 4360:1999

Risk retention

Advocacy

IMAS 04.10.

AS/NZS 4360:1999 ISO 73:2002

Stakeholders

215

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REFERENCE AND OTHER SOURCES OF DATA

BOOKS:
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. Adam, Barbara and Joost van Loon, Ulrich Beck: The Risk Society and Beyond: Critical Issues for Social Theory, London: Sage Publications Ltd, 2000, page 232. Adams, John: Risk, Taylor and Francis, London, 1995, page 228. Aven, Terje: Reliability and Risk Analysis, The Royal Society, London, 1992, page 201. Banac, Ivo: Cijena Bosne (The Price of Bosnia), articles, statements and public appearances 19921993, Europa danas, Zagreb, 1994, page 156. Beridan, Izet: Konikti: homo pro homine et contra hominem - ovjek za i protiv ovjeka (Conicts: homo pro homine et contra hominem), Fakultet politikih nauka, Sarajevo, 2003, page 210. Bernstein, Peter L.: Against the Gods: the Remarkable Story of Risk, Wiley & Sons, New York, 1996, page 383. Blaikie, Piers, Terry Cannon, Ian Davis and Ben Wisner: At Risk. Natural Hazards, Peoples Vulnerability and Disaster, Routledge, London - New York, 1994, page 284. Borge, Dan: The Book of Risk, Wiley, New York, 2001, page 244. Brandt, Miroslav: Izvori zla: Dualistike teme (Sources of Evil: Dualist Themes), ITRO August Cesarec, Zagreb, 1989, page 542.

10. Chapman, Chris and Stephen Ward: Project Risk Management Processes, Techniques and Insights, University of Southampton, Chichester, UK: John Wiley and Sons Ltd, 1997, page 322. 11. Chicken, John C. and Michael R. Hayns: The Risk Ranking Technique in Decision Making, Oxford - New York: Pergamon, 1989, page 123. 12. Clarke, Lee: Acceptable Risk? Making Decisions in a Toxic Environment, University of California Press, Berkley and LA, Oxford, England, 1989, page 229. 13. Cohrssen, John J. and Vincent T. Covello: Risk Analysis: A Guide to Principles and Methods for Analyzing Health and Environmental Risks, United States Council on Environmental Quality, Executive Ofce of the President of US, Washington, 1989, page 407. 14. Cvetkovski, Cvetan: Ljudska prava (Human Rights), books I and II, Karitas, Skopje, 1999, pages 167+294. 15. Cvitkovi, Ivan: Konfesija u ratu (Confession in the War), Svjetlo rijei, Sarajevo, 2004, page 223. 16. eki, Smail: Agresija na Republiku Bosnu i Hercegovinu. Planiranje, priprema, izvoenje (Aggression against the Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Planning, Preparation and Execution), books 1 and 2, Institut za istraivanje zloina protiv ovjenosti i meunarodnog prava, Sarajevo, 2004, page 1328.

216

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17. Degan, Vladimir-uro: Meunarodno pravo i meunarodna sigurnost (International Law and International Security), Svjetlost, Sarajevo, 1982, page 161. 18. Deeljin, Jadranka and Josip Deeljin, Marelo Dujani, Hrvoje Tadin, Vidoje Vuji: Poduzetniki menadment: Izazov, rizik, zadovoljstvo (Entrepreneurial Management: Challenge, Risk, Pleasure), Alinea Zagreb and Sveuilite u Rijeci, 1999, page 272. 19. Dizdarevi, Ismet: Psihologija masovnih komunikacija: (mediji, modeli i mjerenje) (Psychology of Mass Media: Media, Models and Measurements), Studentska tamparija Univerziteta, Sarajevo, 1998, page 243. 20. Dujovi, Jago: Osnovi ratne vjetine (The Basics of Warfare Skills), Sarajevo, 2000, page 404. 21. Dunnigan, James F.: Kako voditi rat (How to Make War), VINC Beograd, 1993, page 594. 22. Fromm, Erich: Anatomija ljudske destruktivnosti (Anatomy of Human Destructiveness) I and II, Naprijed, Zagreb, 1984, pages 211+349. 23. Gliksman, Andre: Govor rata (War Discourse), VINC Beograd, 1991, page 399. 24. Grey, Stephen: Practical Risk Assessment for Project Management, Chichester, 1995, page 141. 25. Grizold, Anton and Sinia Tatlovi, Vlatko Cvrtila: Suvremeni sistemi nacionalne sigurnosti (Modern National Security Systems), Zagreb, 1999, page 422. 26. Haldun, Ibn: Muqaddima (selection of works), Sarajevo, 1982, page 162. 27. Handmer, John and Edmund Penning-Rowsell: Hazards and the Communication of Risk, Gower Publishing Company Ltd, Aldershot, Hants-England, Brookeld, Vt., USA, 1990, page 335. 28. Hertz, David and Howard Thomas: Practical Risk Analysis: an Approach Through Case Histories, Wiley, Chichester - New York, 1984, page 316. 29. Huseinbai, amil: Civilna zatita (Civil Protection), FMO, 1999, page 203. 30. Klausewitz, Karl von: O ratu (On War), Vojno delo, Beograd, 1951, page 553. 31. Krimsky, Sheldon and others: Social Theories of Risk, Praeger Publishers, London, 1992, page 412. 32. Koen, Moris and Ernest Najgel: Uvod u logiku i nauni metod (An Introduction to Logic and Scientic Method), Zavod za udbenike i nastavna sredstva, Beograd, 1977, page 469. 33. Lundgren, Regina E.: Risk Communication: a Handbook for Communicating Environmental, Safety, and Health Risks, Battelle Press, Columbus, Oh., 1994, page 175. 34. Lupton, Deborah: Risk, London and New York: Taylor & Francis Books, 1999, page 184. 35. Machiavelli, Niccolo: Izabrano djelo (Selected Writings), volumes I and II, Globus, Zagreb, 1985. 36. Mili, Vojin: Socioloki metod (The Sociological Method), Zavod za udbenike i nastavna sredstva, Beograd 1996, page 767. 37. Milovanovi Danilo: Utvrivanje (Fortication), Vojnoizdavaki zavod, Beograd, 1979, page 454.

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38. Morgan, Granger M. and Max Henrion and Mitchell Small: Uncertainty: A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1990, page 332. 39. Mui, Vladimir: Metodologija pedagokog istraivanja (Methodology of Educational Research), Svetlost, Sarajevo, 1982, page 663. 40. Peujli, Miroslav: Metodologija drutvenih nauka (Methodology of Social Sciences), SL SFRJ, Beograd, 1977, page 295. 41. Plenkovi, Mario: Komunikologija masovnih medija (Communicology of Mass Media), Barbat, Zagreb, 1993, page 259. 42. Pljaskin, V.J., I.F. Lisuhin and V.A. Ruvinski: Ininjerijsko obezbeenje borbenih dejstava (Engineer Security of Combat Activities), Vojnoizdavaki zavod, Beograd, 1967, page 358. 43. Risk: Analysis, Perception and Management, Report of Royal Society Study Grup, The Royal Society, London, 1992, page 201. 44. Saaty, Thomas L.: The Analytic Hierarchy Process: Planning, Priority Setting, Resource Allocation, New York-London: McGraw-Hill International Book Co, 1980, page 287. 45. Scarff, Frances, Andy Carty and Robert Charette: Introduction to the Management of Risk, HMSO/ CCTA, London, 1993, page 94. 46. Serdar, Vladimir: Udbenik statistike (Statistics Textbook), kolska knjiga, Zagreb, 1972, page 398. 47. Sikavica, Pere, Hrvoje Skoko, Dario Tipuri and Martina Dali: Poslovno odluivanje: Teorija i praksa donoenja odluka (Business Decision Making: Theory and Practice of Decision Making), Zagreb: Informator, 1994, page 240. 48. Slovic, Paul: The Perception of Risk, Earthscan, London, 2000, page 473. 49. Stojak, Rudi: Metoda analize sadraja (The Method of Content Analysis), Institut za prouavanje nacionalnih odnosa, Sarajevo, 1990, page 199. 50. ami, Midhat: Kako nastaje nauno djelo: uvoenje u metodologiju i tehniku naunoistraivakog rada opti pristup (The Way in Which a Scientic Work Develops: An Introduction to the Methodology and Technique of Scientic Research Work General Approach), Svjetlost, Sarajevo, 1980, page 171. 51. karec eljko: Ruenje (Demolition), Vojnoizdavaki zavod, Beograd, 1979, page 374. 52. Tatalovi, Sinia: Etniki sukobi i europska sigurnost (Ethnic Conicts and European Security), Politika kultura, Zagreb, 2003, page 283. 53. Tatalovi, Sinia: Upravljanje u politikim sustavima i sustavima obrane (Management in Political and Defence Systems), DEFIMI, Zagreb, 1996, page 160. 54. Termiz, Devad and Slavomir Milosavljevi: Praktikum iz metodologije politikologije (Exercises in the Methodology of Political Science), Sarajevo, 2000, page 331. 55. Termiz, Devad and Slavomir Milosavljevi: Uvod u metodologiju politikologije (An Introduction to the Methodology of Political Science), DAX Trade, Sarajevo, 1999, page 554.

218

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56. Thomas Aquinus: Drava (The State), Globus, Nakladni zavod, Zagreb, 1990, page 350. 57. Vujevi, Miroslav: Uvoenje u znanstveni rad u podruju drutvenih znanosti (An Introduction to the Scientic Work in the Field of Social Sciences), Informator, Zagreb, 1983, page 133. 58. Vukadinovi, Radovan: Evropska sigurnost i suradnja (European Security and Cooperation), Globus, Zagreb, 1977, page 339. 59. Vukadinovi, Radovan: Meunarodni politiki odnosi (International Political Relations), Barbat, Zagreb, 1998, page 463. 60. Vukadinovi, Radovan: Sigurnost na jugoistoku Europe (Security in South-Eastern Europe), Interland, Varadin, 1999, page 180. 61. Wisner, Ben and Piers Blaikie, Terry Cannon and Ian Davis: At Risk: Natural Hazards, Peoples Vulnerability and Disasters, London: Routledge, 2004, page 471. 62. Wood, Richard H.: Aviation Safety Programs a Management Handbook, Snohomish, Washington, 1997, page 288. 63. Wren, Daniel A. and Dan Voich Jr.: Management, Process, Structure and Behavior, translation, PS Grme- Privredni pregled, Belgrade 2001, page 551. 64. unec, Ozren: Planet mina, Strata istraivanja (The Mine Planet, Strata Investigations), Zagreb, 1997, page 362.

ARTICLES (from magazines, newspapers and collected papers):

1. Beer, T. and Ziolkowski F.: Environmental Risk Assessment: An Australian Perspective. Supervising Scientist Report 102, 1995, Canberra, page 4, www.deh.gov.au/ssd/publications/ ssr/102.html. Brown, Rex: Using Soft Data to Make Probabilistic Risk Assessments Realistic, George Mason University, Fairfax, 1999, page 14, http://sher.osu.edu/butler_267/DAPapers/ WP000002.pdf. Brown, Steve: Mine Action - The Management of Risk, The Journal of Mine Action Vol 3, No. 1, MAIC, James Madison University, http://maic.jmu.edu/journal/3.1/ features/risk_brown/risk_ brown.pdf. Cooper, Dale F.: The Australian and New Zealand Standard on Risk Management, AS/NZS 4360:1999, 2004, www.broadleaf.com.au/tutorials/Tut_Standard.pdf. Gerard, Toal: Oprene supersile u svijetu globalnih opasnosti (Contrasting Superpowers in a World of Global Dangers), article translation published in Hrvatska revija no. 2, MH, Zagreb, 2001, page 9, http://matica.hr/HRRevija/ revija02.nsf/AllWebDocs/SUPERSILE. Goreta, Damir: Mine Problem in the Region of Southeastern Europe, Journal of Mine Action, James Medison University, Issue February 7, 2003 Husar, Ivan: Kako smanjiti premiju osiguranja (How to Reduce the Insurance Premium), article from the magazine Svijet osiguranja no. 2, http://www.osiguranje.hr/casopis.asp?text_id=273. Journal of Mine Action, The Mine Action Information Canter at James Madison University, editions for 1999-2004, http://maic.jmu.edu/journal/.

2.

3.

4. 5.

6. 7. 8.

219

DARVIN LISICA

9.

Kloman, Felix H: Risk management Milestones: 1900 to 1999, article from Risk Management Reports, 1999, http://www.irmi.com/expert/articles/kloman001a.asp.

10. Kulenovi, Tarik: Pripreme za rat i poetak rata u Bosni i Hercegovini 1992 (Preparations for the War and the Beginning of the War in Bosnia and Herzegovina), Polemos - asopis za interdisciplinarna istraivanja rata i mira br. 1, January-June 1998, pages 2-6, http://www.ffzg. hr/hsd/polemos/prvi/04.html, access date 5 October 2005. 11. Latkovi, Mladen: Upravljanje rizicima: Identikacija, mjerenje i kontrola (Risk Management: Identication, Measurement and Control), Hagena, Zagreb 2001, http://www.ijf.hr/nancijska_ praksa/PDF-2002/2-02/latkovic.pdf. 12. Lisica, Darvin: Bosnia and Herzegovina Mine Problem and Priority Setting, Journal of Mine Action, Issue 7.2., pages 14-16, The Mine Action Information Center at James Madison University, 2003, http://maic.jmu.edu/journal/7.2/focus/lisica/ lisica.htm. 13. Long, Jun and Baruch Fischhoff: Setting Risk Priorities: A Formal Model, Risk Analysis, Vol. 20, No. 3, 2000, page 13, www.epp.cmu.edu/research/risk-summary-sheets/Long&Fischhoff2000. pdf. 14. Trevelyan, James P.: Opportunities for Improving the Mine Action Process, The University of Western Australia, 2000, page 11, http://maic.jmu.edu/journal/4.3/process.htm. 15. Shortreed, John and John Hicks, Lorraine Craig: Basic Frameworks for Risk Management, Final Report, NERAM, Ontario, 2003, http://irr.uwaterloo.ca/pdf_les/basicFrameworkMar2003.pdf. 16. Utvrivanje i procjena opasnosti u lokalnoj zajednici (Hazard Identication and Evaluation in a Local Community), publication of the UN Environment Programme, 1992. 17. Williams, Julian:A Risk Strategy for Mine Action A Report for Department for International Developtment, Serco Assurance, Warington, UK, 2003, www.itep.ws/pdf/risk_strategy_dd.pdf. 18. unec, Ozren: Rat u Hrvatskoj 1991. - 1995. godine part 1: Uzroci rata i operacije do sarajevskog primirja (The War in Croatia 1991-1995 Part One: The Causes of the War and Military Operations Till Sarajevo Truce), Polemos - asopis za interdisciplinarna istraivanja rata i mira br. 1, JanuaryJune 1998, http://www.ffzg.hr/hsd/polemos/prvi/03.html, access date 5 October 2005.

DOCUMENTS AND REGULATIONS, (mine action handbooks and instructions, national and international treaties and regulations, reports, standards and plans)
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Afghanistan Landmine Impact Survey: Final Report, Survey Action Centre, Washington, 2005. A Guide to Mine Action, Geneva International Centre for Humanitarian Demining, Geneva, 2003, page 209. A Study of Socio-Economic Approaches to Mine Action, UNDP and Geneva International Centre for Humanitarian Demining (GICHD), Geneva, 2001, page 188. Bailey, Sheree: Landmine Victim Assistance in South East Europe: Final Study Report, Landmine Monitor, Handicap International Belgium, 2003, page 68. Borbeno pravilo za ininjerijski bataljon (Combat Rule for an Engineering Battalion), Vojnoizdavaki zavod, Beograd, 1974, page 230.

220

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6. 7. 8.

Borbeno pravilo za ininjerijski puk (Combat Rule for an Engineering Regiment), Vojnoizdavaki zavod, Beograd, 1974, page 220. Communication in Mine Awareness Programmes, Geneva International Centre for Humanitarian Demining (GICHD), Geneva, 2002, page 191. Convention on the Prohibition of the Use, Stockpiling, Production and Transfer of Anti-Personnel Mines and on their Destruction, 1997, source: www.mines.gc.ca/VII/VII_AA_i-en.asp, access date 25 November 2005. Dayton Peace Accords, JPNIO, ofcial gazette Slubeni list RBiH, Sarajevo 1996.

9.

10. Explosive Remnants of War and Mines Other than Anti-Personnel Mines. Global survey 20032004, Landmine Action (UK), 2005, page 192. 11. External Evaluation of the Pilot Project of Community Based Mine Risk Education by Project Development Group UNICEF-Cambodia Mine Action Centre-Handicap International Belgium, 2003, page 54. 12. Figueroa, Maria Elena and others: Communication for Social Change. An Integrated Model for Measuring the process and Its Outcomes, Johns Hopkins Universitys Center for Communication Programs, New York, 2002, page 43. 13. Fink, Arlene: How to Conduct Surveys, a Step-by-Step Guide, Sage Publications, London Thousand Oaks - New Delhi, 2005, page 107. 14. Fonseka, Anusha and Kalinga, Tudor Silva, Asoka Jayasena: Mine Risk Education Project of UNICEF: A Formative Evaluation, UNICEF, Sri lanka, 2004, page 65. 15. From Ottawa to Nairobi and beyond. Key Documents in the Global Effort to End the Suffering Caused by Anti-Personnel Mines, Geneva International Centre for Humanitarian Demining, Geneva, 2005, page 63. 16. Grosh, Margaret E., Juan Muoz: A Manual for Planning and Implementing the Living Standars Measurement Study Survey, World Bank, Washington, 1996, page 290. 17. Guide 51: Safety Aspects Guidelines for their Inclusion in Standards, Second Edition ISO/IEC, 1999. 18. Heyman, Charles: Trends in Land Mine Warfare, A Janes Special Report from Janes Information Group, Alexandria, USA, 1995, page 161. 19. Humanitarno pravo, enevske konvencije i dodatni protokoli (Humanitarian Right, Geneva Conventions and Additional Protocols), MVP, Sarajevo, 1996, page 619. 20. International Conference on Mine Clearance Technology, Report of the International Conference on Mine Clearance Technology, www.un.org/Depts/dha/, access date 12 July 2005. 21. International Guidelines for Landmine and Unexploded Ordnance Awareness Education, UNICE, New York 1998. 22. International Mine Action Standards, Issue 2, compact disc, Geneva International Centre for Humanitarian Demining (GICHD) for United Nations Mine Action Service, Geneva, 2003. 23. Knowledge, Attitude and Practices Survey, International Committee of the Red Cross, Sarajevo,

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2003, page 95. 24. Kondi, ivko: Kvaliteta i metode poboljanja (Quality and Methods for Improvement), Varadin, 2004, page 545. 25. Landmine Impact Survey - Bosnia and Herzegovina, Final Report, Survey Action Centre, Washington, Certied by the United Nations Certication Committee, 2004, page 198. 26. Landmine Monitor Report 1999, International Campaign to Ban Landmines, Human Rights Watch, Washington, 1999, page 1075. 27. Landmine Monitor Report 2003, Toward a MineFree World, International Campaign to Ban Landmines, Human Rights Watch, Washington, 2003, page 832. 28. Landmine Monitor Report 2004, Toward a MineFree World, International Campaign to Ban Landmines, Human Rights Watch, Washington, 2004, page 1317. 29. Landmine Monitor Report 2005, Toward a MineFree World, International Campaign to Ban Landmines, Human Rights Watch, Washington, 2003, page 1058. 30. Lisica, Darvin and David Rowe: Strateka analiza protuminskih akcija u Bosni i Hercegovini (Strategic Analysis of Mine Action in Bosnia and Herzegovina), Sarajevo, 2004, page 61. 31. Lisica, Darvin and Suzana Srni Vukovi: Upozoravanje na mine u ugroenim zajednicama. Prurunik za procjenu ugroenosti i planiranje u Bosni i Hercegovini (Mine Risk Education in Affected Communities. Handbook for Threat Assessment and Planning in Bosnia and Herzegovina), UNICEF, 2005, page 161. 32. Mine Action and Effective Coordination: The United Nation Inter - Agency Policy, UN Mine Action Service, New York, 2005, page 38. 33. Minsko-eksplozivna sredstva (Mines and Explosive Means), Book I, SSNO-Vojna tamparija, Beograd, 1981, page 305. 34. Modied Level One Impact Survey: Setting Mine Action Priorities in Kosovo, Survey Action Centre, Washington, 2000. 35. Nastavni plan i program Prevnetivna zatita od mina i drugih ubojnih sredstava za osnovne i srednje kole (Curriculum Preventive Protection from Mines and Other Ordnance, primary and secondary schools), Federalno ministrastvo obrazovanja, nauke, kulture i sporta, Sarajevo, 2002. 36. Nairobi Summit in a Mine-Free World, Report on Activities, ICBL, 2005, page 80. 37. Nedovreni mir Izvjetaj meunarodne komisije za Balkan (The Unnished Peace Report of the International Commission on the Balkans), Radio B92-Naa Borba, Beograd, 1998, http:// mmc.et.tudelft.nl/~sii/b92net/unnishedpeace/nedovrseni_mir/uvod/uvod1.htm, access date 5 December 2005. 38. Nenadi, Mario and others: Uporedna analiza pristupa pravima izbjeglica i raseljenih osoba (A Comparative Analysis of the Approach to the Rights of Refugees and Displaced Persons), Ministarstvo za ljudska prava i izbjeglice BiH, Sarajevo, 2005, page 424. 39. 2005 Demining Plan in Bosnia and Herzegovina, adopted at the session of the Council of Ministers held in Sarajevo on 12 October 2004, page 19.

222

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40. Postwar Mine Clearance, Book 1 and Book 2, The Engineering Institute of Engineer Corps University of Science and Engineering PLA, Nanjing, 1999, page 344. 41. Powel, Bruce: Mine Risk Education in Local Community in Cambodia, MacFarlane Burnet Institute for Medical Research and Public Health-UNICEF, Victoria, Australia, 2001, page 89. 42. Pravilo upotreba ininjerije (The Rule for Using Engineer Forces), Vojnoizdavaki i novinski centar, Beograd, 1988, page 187. 43. Republic of Azerbaijan Landmine Impact Survey, Survey Action Centre, Washington, 2003. 44. Rezultati istraivanja efekata Mines Awareness Campaign Finalni izvjetaj (The Results of the Mines Awareness Campaign Effects Examination Final Report), Prism Research UNDP, Sarajevo, 2001, page 59. 45. Sali, Sevima and Zlatan Terzi: meunarodni dokumenti o ljudskim pravima. Instrumenti ustava FBiH (International Documents on Human Rights. Instruments of the Constitution of FB&H), Pravni centar Otvorenog drutva BiH, 1996, page 488. 46. Shortreed, John, John Hicks, Lorraine Craig: Basic Frameworks for Risk management, Final Report, NERAM - Network for Environmental Risk Assessment and Management, Ontario, 2003, http://irr.uwaterloo.ca/pdf_les/basicFrameworkMar2003.pdf, access date 16 August 2005, page 72. 47. Srednjorona razvojna strategija BiH PRSP (2004-2007) (B&H Medium-Term Development Strategy), Vijee ministara BiH, Vlada FBiH and Vlada RS, 2004, page 374. 48. Standardi za uklanjanje mina i NUS-a u Bosni i Hercegovini, Drugo izdanje (Standards for Mines and UXO Clearance in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Second Edition), adopted by the Bosnia and Herzegovina Demining Commission on 1 January 2003. 49. Standardi za upozoravanje na mine u Bosni i Hercegovini, Prvo izdanje (Mine Risk Education Standards in Bosnia and Herzegovina, First Edition), 2005. 50. Standardne operativne procedure za humanitarno deminiranje, Prvo izdanje (Standing Operational Procedures for Humanitarian Demining, First Edition), adopted by the Bosnia and Herzegovina Demining Commission on 1 June 2003. 51. Strategija protuminskih akcija Bosne i Hercegovine (Mine Action Strategy in Bosnia and Herzegovina), adopted at the session of the Council of Ministers held in Sarajevo on 12 October 2004, page 22. 52. The Australian and New Zealand Standard on Risk Management, AS/NZS 4360:1999, Standards Associations of Australia, 1999. 53. The European Union mine actions in the world, European Commission, Luxembourg, 2004, page 95. 54. The Presidential/Congressional Commission on Risk Assessment and Risk Management: Framework for Environmental Health Risk Management, Final Report, Volume 1, 1999, page 63, http://www.riskworld.com/Nreports/1997/risk-rpt/pdf/EPAJAN.PDF. 55. The Presidential/Congressional Commission on Risk Assessment and Risk Management: Risk Assessment and Risk Management in Regulatory Decision-Making, Final Report, Volume 2, 1999, page 213, http://www.riskworld.com/Nreports/1997/risk-rpt/volume2/pdf/v2epa.PDF.

223

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56. The Principles of Management for Mine Action Managers, Compiled by Craneld Mine Action and Disaster Management Centre, Craneld University, A Pearson Custom Publishing, 2004, page 596. 57. The Special Report Mine Action 2003, ICRC, Geneva, 2004, page 77. 58. UNICEF Mine Action Strategy 2002-2005, Ofce of Emergency Programmes, 59. United Nation Mine Action: a Strategy for 2001-2005, Report of the Secretary-General, Fifty-sixth session of General Assembly, 16 October 2001. 60. Voki-Avdagi, Jelenka: Razvoj savremenih komunikacijskih procesa i sistema i bosanskohercegovako drutvo i drava (Development of Modern Communication Processes and Systems and the Society and State of Bosnia and Herzegovina), Fakultet politikih nauka, Sarajevo, 1977, page 142. 61. Zbirka propisa iz meunarodnog ratnog prava (Collection of Regulations from the International Law of War), page 270.

OTHER SOURCES (encyclopaedias, dictionaries, databases, internet sites)

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. Bosnia and Herzegovina Mine Action Centre Database (BHMAIS), www.bhmac.org. IMSMA database: Bosnia and Herzegovina Landmine Impact Survey. Database on mine victims International Committee of the Red Cross. Beridan, Izet, Ivo M. Tomi and Muharem Kreso: Leksikon sigurnosti (Lexicon of Security), DES, Sarajevo, 2001, page 457. Filipovi, Rudolf and others: Englesko-Hrvatski ili Srpski rijenik (English-Croatian or Serbian Dictionary), Zora, Zagreb, 1974, page 1467. Janes Mines and Mine Clearance, First Edition 1996-97, Janes Information Group, Surrey, UK, 1996, page 497. Klai, Bratoljub: Rjenik stranih rijei (Dictionary of Foreign Words), Nakladni zavod Matice Hrvatske, Zagreb, 1990, page 1456. Popi, Relja and Branimir Loli, Naim Afgan: Nauno-tehniki renik (Scientic and Technical Dictionary), NIGRO Privredni pregled, Beograd, 1983, page 1277. Vojna enciklopedija, I-X i Indeks, 2. izdanje (Military Encyclopaedia I-X and Index, Second Edition), Redakcija Vojne enciklopedije, Beograd, 1973.

10. Vojni leksikon, VIZ, Beograd, 1981, pages 725+771. 11. Websters New English Dictionary and Thesaurus, Geddes&Grosset, Scotland, 2002, page 1008. 12. Web page: B&H Mine Action Centre, www.bhmac.org. 13. Web page: E-mine UN Mine Action Service, www.mineaction.org. 14. Web page: Geneva International Centre for Humanitarian Demining, www.gichd.ch. 15. Web page: International Campaign to ban Landmines, www.icbl.org. 16. Web page: International Test and Evaluation Programme, www.itep.ws. 17. Web page: James Madison University, www.maic.jmu.edu.

224

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18. Web page: Library of Congress, Country Studies,http://lcweb2.loc.gov/frd/cs/. 19. Web page: European Demining, www.eudem.vub.ac.be. 20. Web page: Society for Countermine Technolologies, www.demine.org. 21. Web page: Survey Action Centre, www.sac-na.org. 22. Web page: UN Security Council Resolutions, http://www.un.org/documents/scres.htm. 23. Web page: Wikipedia, the Free Encyclopaedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/.

LIST OF GRAPHICS
Graphic 1: Logic of risk management .............................................................................................20 Graphic 2: Risk management according to AS/NZS 4360:2004 ......................................................22 Graphic 3: Risk treatment process ...................................................................................................25 Graphic 4: NERAM risk treatment framework ................................................................................26 Graphic 5: Extended NERAM framework for risk assessment and treatment .................................27 Graphic 6: Risk assessment and reduction according to ISO/IEC standards .................................27 Graphic 7: Classication of landmines ...........................................................................................39 Graphic 8: Composition of the UN Inter-Agency Coordination Group on Mine Action .................55 Graphic 9: Sketch of risk area reuced by technical survey............................................................124 Graphic 10: Craneld model of mine action strategic planning ...................................................145 Graphic 11: Relationship between strategic and operational documents of mine action planning in B&H ......................................................................................................................148 Graphic 12: Course diagram integrated mine action planning for the affected community.......154 Graphic 13: The cause and effect diagram for identication of affected groups ..........................163 Graphic 14: System for the assessment of the problem of mines and UXO and mine action planning in B&H .....................................................................................................................203

LIST OF GRAPHS Graph 1: Dynamics of laying mineelds in relation to mobility of forces and the course of peace negotiations ....................................................................................................................45 Graph 2: Mine portion in the mineeld database by type ...............................................................67 Graph 3: Seasonal variations in laying mineelds in Bosnia and Herzegovina in the period January 1992 December 1995 ....................................................................................68 Graph 4: Dynamics in laying mineelds in Bosnia and Herzegovina in the period January 1992 December 1995 ...........................................................................................................68 Graph 5: Comparison of data from the mineeld database and the selected mineeld records, relating to the number of mines laid according to military organisation ......................70 Graph 6: Distribution of mineelds in Bosnia and Herzegovina by number of mines ....................70 Graph 7: Average number of mines in a Bosnia and Herzegovina mineeld,by mine type.............71 Graph 8: Military mine clearance 1997 1998 discrepancy in compariosn with the situation recorded in mineeld records .........................................................................................76 Graph 9: Discrepancy between the number of mines laid, according to mineeld records, and the number of mines detected during military clearance 1997 - 1998 ................................76 Graph 10: Monthly average of mine casualties in B&H .................................................................82 Graph 11: Seasonal variations in the number of mine casualties from Jan2000-July 2005 ...........82 Graph 12: Seasonal variations in the number of casualties in B&H from 1996 - 2005 .................83 Graph 13: Number and age structure of casualties per year ..........................................................83 Graph 14: Number and structure of injured and kiled in B&H .......................................................84 Graph 15: Structure of casualties in relation to movements during the war in B&H .....................84

225

DARVIN LISICA

Graph 16: Suspected area reduction in Bosnia and Herzegovina ...................................................89 Graph 17: Number of mine suspected locations by area size ..........................................................89 Graph 18: Dependency of mine suspected area on the duration of conicts in the Balkans, after 1990 .....................................................................................................................107 Graph 19: Structure of mine-blocked resources in mine-affected communities,comparative indicators by countries .................................................................................................109 Graph 20: Statistic information comparing the socioeconomic situation in mine and ERWaffected countries .........................................................................................................109 Graph 21: Exposure to risk from mines and ERW, comparative indicators by countries ............. 110 Graph 22: Average number of casualties per one million of inhabitants, comparative indicators by countries .................................................................................................................. 110 Graph 23: Average number of mines detected in the cleared area in 2004, comparative indicators by countries .................................................................................................................. 112 Graph 24: Funding allocations from domestic sources for mine actions in relation to gross domestic product in 2004,comparative indicators by countries .................................. 113 Graph 25: Reduction/increase in the number of mine and ERW-casualties per year, comparative indicators by countries ................................................................................................. 113 Graph 26: Cleared area with the number of removed mines and UXO.........................................120 Graph 27: Removed mines proportion of mines by types, displayed as percentages ................121 Graph 28: Average mines of detected mines and UXO per unit of area........................................121 Graph 29: Dependency of perimeter on the size of cleared areas .................................................124 Graph 30: Estimate of the possible relationship between clearance and technical survey, based on the number of detected mines at demined locations ................................................127 Graph 31: Creation of mine risk education messages per year ....................................................133 Graph 32. Representation of printed media containing mine risk education messages ................133 Graph 33: Use of restored land following humanitarian demining in B&H from 1999 to 2004 .138 Graph 34: Number of houses cleared of mines and UXO in relation to the return of people, results in B&H from 1999 to 2005 ...........................................................................................139 Graph 35: Demined area with houses, results in B&H from 1999 to 2005 ...................................139 Graph 36: Underlying concept of strategic plan (graph taken from the BH Mine Action Strategy, page 17) ........................................................................................................................147 Graph 37: The Pareto Diagram.....................................................................................................166 Graph 38: Impact of mines and UXO on the most affected population groups in B&H ...............177 Graph 39: Results of humanitarian demining in the implementation of mine action plans for the affected communities ....................................................................................................178 Graph 40: Present-day and pre-war number of inhabitants and households in surveyed communities ..................................................................................................................179 Graph 41: Impact of the risk from mine and UXO on the community ...........................................179 Graph 42: Age structure of surveyed households ..........................................................................180 Graph 43: Age structure of surveyed spouses................................................................................183 Graph 44: Surveyed spouses mine risk perception action in case of coming across a mine.... 185 Graph 45: Surveyed spouses mine risk perception action in case of accident ..........................185 Graph 46: Level of information about marking of mineelds .......................................................186 Graph 47: Surveyed persons evaluation of the level of marking suspected areas in their communities ..................................................................................................................187 Graph 48: Risk behaviour entering a mine suspected area ........................................................187 Graph 49: Ranking of the recepients that the surveyed persons want to inform about mine hazard ...........................................................................................................................189 Graph 50: Ranking of the providers from whom the surveyed persons want to receive information about mine hazard ........................................................................................................189 Graph 51: Level of destruction of the facilities in surveyed households and their reconstruction in Ulice .........................................................................................................................194 Graph 52: Communal conditions for surveyed households in Ulice .............................................194

226

REFERENCE AND OTHER SOURCES OF DATA

Graph 53: Level of destruction of the facilities in surveyed households and their reconstruction in Kamenica..................................................................................................................198 Graph 54: Communal conditions for surveyed households in Kamenica .....................................198

LIST OF TABLES: Table 1: Types and characteristics of mines in the mineelds of Bosnia and Herzegovina ............64 Table 2: Data entry error analysis based on a simple random pattern ...........................................67 Table 3: Estimate of the number of mines based on mine density in suspected areas .....................91 Table 4: Estimate of the number of mines based on the avreage density of mines in a mineeld ...91 Table 5: Estimate of the number of mines based on mine denisty per unit of area..........................92 Table 6: Estimate of the number of mines based on humanitarian demining operations ................93 Table 7: Comparative indicators from the general mine action assessment for Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Yemen, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Croatia ..........................................108 Table 8: Results of permanent marking of mine suspected areas ..................................................128 Table 9: Analysis of the content of mine risk education messages in B&H ...................................134 Table 10: The weighting matrix .....................................................................................................165 Table 11: The hazard level matrix ..................................................................................................168 Table 12: The impact matrix ..........................................................................................................168 Table 13: The risk level matrix ......................................................................................................169 Table 14: The matrix of the level of priorities for humanitarian demining ...................................170 Table 15: Educational background and employment status of the members of surveyed households ....................................................................................................................181 Table 16: Reasons for entering a suspected area .........................................................................182 Table 17: Surveyed spouses perception of threat to age groups ...................................................183 Table 18: Priorities of the community in solving problems with mines and UXO .........................191 Table 19: Analysis of the number of mines and mineelds according to the mineeld database ..238 Table 20: The correlation matrix for mineelds with AP mines ....................................................239 Table 21: The correlation matrix for mineelds with AT mines .....................................................239 Table 22: The correlation matrix for mixed mineelds ..................................................................240 Table 23: The mine and ERW-risk identication matrix ................................................................241 Table 24: The risk register for the affected community .................................................................242 Table 25: Prevalence and level of mine impact on the most highly affected groups in the communities where risk assessment was made ............................................................248

LIST OF MAPS Map 1: Suspected area of the Municipality of Gorade late in 2003, an example showing the results of systematic survey, taken from the data base of the BH Mine Action Centre .......87 Map 2: General estimate of mine situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina .........................................94 Map 3: Mineelds in Southeastern Europe...................................................................................100 Map 4: Azerbaijan, mine and ERW-affected communities ............................................................104 Map 5: Ulice, Brko District planning and conducting mine action operations......................196 Map 6: Perception of risk by the surveyed members of a household in Kamenica .......................249

LIST OF APPENDICES Appendix 1: Measuring mine and ERW-risk in B&H (indicators,methods and procedures) ........229 Appendix 2: Model of an integrated MA plan for the community affected by mines and ERW....243

227

DARVIN LISICA

APPENDICES

228

APPENDICES

Appendix 1: Measuring mine and ERW-risk in B&H (indicators, methods, and procedures)

NUMBER

INDICATORS

METHODS AND PROCEDURES

1. 1.1. 1.1.1. 1.1.2. 1.1.3. 1.2. 1.2.1. 1.2.2. 1.3. 1.3.1. 1.3.2. 1.3.3. 1.4. 1.4.1. 1.4.2. 1.4.3. 1.4.4. 1.5. 1.5.1. 1.5.2. 1.6. 1.6.1. 2. 2.1. 2.1.1.

STRUCTURE OF ARMED CONFLICTS Type of armed conict According to intensity of conicts According to the international laws of war According to the goals set Participants in armed conict Number of parties in conict Number and structure of forces participating in an armed conict Goals of participants in an armed conict Military goals Economic goals Political goals Area of an armed conict Size of territory of warring parties Size of territory where war operations are conducted Territorial distribution Length of confrontation lines Duration of an armed conict Beginning of conict End of conict Result of an armed conict Result of an armed conict

1. 2. 3. 1. 2. 3. 1. 2. 3.

Comparative method Document analysis procedure Data collection Comparative method Document analysis procedure Data collection Comparative method Document analysis procedure Data collection

1. 2.

Document analysis procedure Data collection

1. 2.

Document analysis procedure Data collection Document analysis procedure Data collection

2.1.2. 2.2. 2.2.1. 2.2.2. 2.2.3. 2.2.4. 2.2.5.

1. 2. SOCIOECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF CONFLICTS Human losses Number of people killed 1. 2. 3. Number of people wounded 4. Demographic consequences Number of refugees Number of displaced persons Number of returnees Total population of the country Number of people of working age

Comparative method Statistical method Document analysis procedure Data collection

1. 1. 2. 3.

Comparative method Statistical method Document analysis procedure Data collection

229

DARVIN LISICA

NUMBER

INDICATORS
Post conict economic situation in the country Gross domestic product GDP per capita GDP structure Percent of population living below poverty line Agricultural land use Density of road and railway networks Characteristics of social and political system Political system Internal organisation of the country SUSPECTED AREA Size of suspected area Suspected area contaminated with mines and ERW according to priority categories Relative size of suspected area contaminated with mines and ERW in relation to the overall territory of the country Number of suspected areas Number of suspected areas contaminated with mines and ERW according to priority categories Characteristics of suspected areas Average size of a suspected area contaminated with mines and ERW Land use Level of mine risk Priority setting criteria MINEFIELD DATA Number of registered mineelds Total number of registered mineelds Number of registered mineelds with AP mines Number of registered mineelds with AT mines Number of mixed mineelds registered Number of registered mineelds without types and number of mines Time of emplacement

METHODS AND PROCEDURES

2.3. 2.3.1. 2.3.2. 2.3.3. 2.3.4. 2.3.5. 2.3.6. 2.4. 2.4.1. 2.4.2. 3. 3.1. 3.1.1. 3.1.2. 3.2. 3.2.1. 3.3. 3.3.1. 3.3.2. 3.3.3. 3.3.4. 4. 4.1. 4.1.1. 4.1.2. 4.1.3. 4.1.4. 4.1.5. 4.1.6.

1. 2. 3. 4.

Comparative method Document analysis procedure Data collection Statistical method

5. 6. 7.

Comparative method Document analysis procedure Data collection

1. 2. 3.

Comparative method Document analysis procedure Data collection

1. 2. 3.

Comparative method Document analysis procedure Data collection

1. 2. 3. 4. 5.

Comparative method Statistical method Risk analysis Document analysis procedure Data collection

1.

Statistical processing and analysis of the total population from the mineeld database

230

APPENDICES

NUMBER

INDICATORS
Characteristics of mineelds Size of mineelds

METHODS AND PROCEDURES

4.2. 4.2.1.

1.

Shape of mineelds 4.2.2. 2. Number and types of mines in the mineeld Number of registered mines and ERW by kinds and types Number of AP mines in the registered mineelds by kinds and types Number of AT mines in the registered mineelds by kinds and types Number of AP mines removed in military demining Number of AT mines removed in military demining Number of AP mines removed in humanitarian demining Number of AT mines removed in humanitarian demining Number of detected and removed pieces of ERW Quality of mineeld records Error made in entering the data from the mineeld records into the mineeld database Number of mineelds from which mines were removed in humanitarian demining according to the mineeld records: With the same number and kind of mines as in the mineeld records, Different number and kind of mines from those in the mineeld records Difference between the numbers of detected mines in military demining and mineeld records Difference between the numbers of detected mines in humanitarian demining and mineeld records and military demining 2. 1. 3. 4.

4.2.3. 4.3. 4.3.1. 4.3.2. 4.3.3. 4.3.4. 4.3.5. 4.3.6. 4.3.7. 4.4. 4.4.1.

Statistical processing and analysis of a stratied sample by types of mines from the mineeld database, military demining according to the records and humanitarian demining Analysis of the mineeld records on a stratied sample Interview Monitoring

1.

Statistical processing and analysis of the total population from the mineeld database Statistical processing and analysis of the total population from the database of military demining according to the records Statistical processing and analysis of the total population from the database of humanitarian demining Statistical processing and analysis of a simple and random sample from the database of humanitarian demining Statistical processing and analysis of the total population from the database of humanitarian demining according to the mineeld records for: ARBiH VRS HVO Statistical processing and analysis of a simple random sample from the database of humanitarian demining Analysis of documents from the le on demined areas

1.

1.

4.4.2.

4.4.3.

1. 4.4.4.

2.

231

DARVIN LISICA

NUMBER

INDICATORS

METHODS AND PROCEDURES

5. 5.1. 5.1.1. 5.1.2. 5.1.3. 5.1.4. 5.1.5. 5.2. 5.2.1. 5.2.2. 5.2.3. 5.3. 5.3.1. 5.3.2. 5.3.3. 5.3.4. 5.3.5. 5.3.6. 5.3.7. 5.4. 5.4.1. 5.4.2. 5.4.3. 5.5. 5.5.1. 5.5.2. 5.5.3. 5.6. 5.6.1. 5.6.2. 5.6.3. 5.6.4. 5.6.5. 5.6.6. 5.6.7. 5.7. 5.7.1. 5.7.2. 6. 6.1. 6.1.1. 6.1.2. 6.1.3.

SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT OF MINES AND ERW ON THE AFFECTED COUNTRY Characteristics of the impacted community Average area of the impacted community Average number of people in the impacted community 1. Comparative method Average number of households in the impacted 2. Statistical method community 3. Risk analysis 4. Document analysis procedure Average number of people in the impacted 5. Data collection community before the conict Average number of households in the impacted community before the conict Number of impacted communities Number of highly impacted communities 1. Comparative method Number of medium impacted communities 2. Document analysis procedure Number of low impacted communities Structure of impacted communities Scattered villages Compact villages Suburban settlements 1. Comparative method Urban settlements 2. Document analysis procedure Seasonal communities Nomadic communities Other Number of impacted people Number of people in highly impacted communities 1. Comparative method Number of people in medium impacted communities 2. Document analysis procedure Number of people in low impacted communities Structure of impacted people Age structure of population 1. Comparative method Impacted population groups 2. Statistical method 3. Analysis of document Typical prole of the impacted person Resources blocked because of mined areas in the impacted communities Pastures Non-irrigated land Irrigated land 1. Comparative method Housing 2. Document analysis procedure Drinking water Water for other purposes Other infrastructure Level of impact of communications Number of communities with blocked roads 1. Comparative method 2. Document analysis procedure Length of the roads going through suspected areas MINE AND ERW VICTIMS Number of victims Number of victims by years Monthly average by years Decreasing tendency in the number of victims

1. 2. 3.

Comparative method Statistical method Document analysis procedure

232

APPENDICES

NUMBER

INDICATORS
Structure of victims Age structure of victims Sex structure of victims Structure of victims in relation to the movement during the war Accident causes Knowingly entering a mine suspected area Unknowingly entering a mine suspected area Accident reasons Existential reasons Recreation Childrens play Accident consequences Number of people killed Number of people wounded Seasonal variations Seasonal variations in the number of victims by months STRUCTURE OF MINE ACTION Management methods Expert bodies managing mine action operations on behalf of the state Responsibilities of the expert bodies in mine action management Number of mine action organisations Number of humanitarian demining organisations (government, non-government, private) Number of mine risk education organisations (government, non-government, private) Number of organisations providing assistance to mine victims (government, non-government, private) Number of organisations to remove explosive remnants of war (government, non-government, private) Number of organisations for investment control Human resources for mine action Number of main deminers Number of guide dogs Number of operators to handle landmine-clearing machines Number of team leaders

METHODS AND PROCEDURES

6.2. 6.2.1. 6.2.2. 6.2.3. 6.3. 6.3.1. 6.3.2. 6.4. 6.4.1. 6.4.2. 6.4.3. 6.5. 6.5.1. 6.5.2. 6.6. 6.6.1. 7. 7.1. 7.1.1. 7.1.2. 7.2. 7.2.1. 7.2.2. 7.2.3.

1. 2. 3.

Comparative method Statistical method Document analysis procedure

1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 1. 2. 3. 1. 2. 3.

Comparative method Document analysis procedure Comparative method Statistical method Document analysis procedure Comparative method Statistical method Document analysis procedure Comparative method Statistical method Document analysis procedure

1. 2. 3.

Comparative method Document analysis procedure Survey of the representatives of government organisations Comparative method Document analysis procedure Survey of the representatives of accreditation bodies

1. 2. 3.

7.2.4. 7.2.5. 7.3. 7.3.1. 7.3.2. 7.3.3. 7.3.4.

1. 2. 3.

Comparative method Document analysis procedure Survey of the representatives of accreditation bodies

233

DARVIN LISICA

NUMBER

INDICATORS
Material and technical resources for mine action Kinds and number of landmine-clearing machines Kinds and number of metal detectors Number of explosive detecting dogs LEGISLATION AND STANDARDS Legislation Legislation governing mine action Existing regulations addressing risk management 1. 2. 3.

METHODS AND PROCEDURES

7.4. 7.4.1. 7.4.2. 7.4.3. 8. 8.1. 8.1.1. 8.1.2. 8.2. 8.2.1. 8.2.2. 8.2.3. 8.2.4. 8.3. 8.3.1.

Comparative method Document analysis procedure Survey of the representatives of accreditation bodies

1. 2. 3.

Comparative method Document analysis procedure Survey of the representatives of accreditation bodies

8.3.2. 8.3.3. 8.3.4. 9. 9.1. 9.1.1. 9.1.2. 9.1.3. 9.2. 9.2.1. 9.2.2. 9.2.3. 9.2.4. 9.3. 9.3.1. 9.3.2.

Mine action standards Which mine action standards have been adopted? 1. Comparative method 2. Document analysis procedure Are there common (state) standing operational 3. Survey of the representatives of procedures? accreditation bodies Do mine action organisations have their own standing operational procedures? Who approves standing operational procedures of mine action organisations? Alignment with international conventions and other regulations 1. Comparative method Has the country ratied the 2. Document analysis procedure Convention on Prohibitions or Restrictions on the Use of Certain Conventional Weapons, including 3. Survey of the representatives of Protocol 2 and Protocol 5. accreditation bodies When was the Convention on Prohibitions or Restrictions on the Use of Certain Conventional Weapons ratied? Has the country ratied the Convention to Ban AntiPersonnel Mines? When was the Convention to Ban Anti-Personnel Mines ratied? ACTIVITY COORDINATION Coordination with local self-government bodies The lowest local government level with which 1. Document analysis procedure coordination is established Body at the local government level in charge of coordination Responsibilities of the local government in mine action operations Coordination with demining and other organisations involved in mine action operations Kinds of coordination bodies 1. Document analysis procedure Tasks of coordination bodies Method of work of coordination bodies Regional coordination among states Coordination with donors Structure of donors 2. Document analysis procedure Coordination bodies

234

APPENDICES

NUMBER

INDICATORS

METHODS AND PROCEDURES

10. 10.1. 10.1.1. 10.1.2. 10.1.3. 10.2. 10.2.1. 10.2.2. 10.2.3. 10.2.4. 10.2.5. 10.3. 10.3.1. 10.3.2. 10.3.3. 10.3.4. 10.3.5. 10.4. 10.4.1. 11. 11.1. 11.1.1. 11.1.2. 11.1.3. 11.1.4. 11.1.5. 11.2. 11.2.1. 11.2.2. 11.2.3. 11.2.4. 12. 12.1. 12.1.1. 12.1.2. 12.1.3. 12.1.4.

QUALITY MANAGEMENT Expert supervision over the implementation of operational activities Average number of controls of a demining site 1. Comparative method 2. Document analysis procedure Has the sampling (random, targeted) of a demined 2. Survey of the representatives of area been introduced? accreditation bodies Has the internal control been developed? Accreditation Is the procedure of issuing accreditations to demining organisations conducted? Is the procedure of issuing accreditations to mine risk education organisations conducted? Is the procedure of issuing accreditations to people conducted? Is the procedure of issuing accreditations to minedetection dogs conducted? Is the procedure of issuing accreditations to landmine-clearing machines conducted? Training and testing Kind of training Kinds of qualications of the operational staff Is the procedure of testing people conducted? Is the procedure of testing dogs conducted? Is the procedure of testing metal detectors conducted? Work safety measures Prescribed work safety measures 1. 2. 3. Comparative method Document analysis procedure Survey of the representatives of accreditation bodies

1. 2. 3.

Comparative method Document analysis procedure Survey of the representatives of accreditation bodies

1. 2.

Comparative method Document analysis procedure

PERCEPTION OF RISK FROM MINES AND ERW BY THE AFFECTED GROUPS Hazard awareness Mine-hazard information providers 1. Risk analysis 2. Statistical analysis Mine-hazard information receivers Information frequency Communication channels Information place Risk acceptance Accepting risk knowingly 1. Risk analysis 2. Statistical analysis Accepting risk unknowingly 3. Data collection Reasons for risk acceptance Behaviour in risk situation SOURCES OF RISK FROM LEFTOVER MINES AND ERW AND THEIR SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACT Sources of risk Individual behaviour 1. Risk analysis 2. Statistical analysis Group behaviour 3. Data collection Economic circumstances Environment

235

DARVIN LISICA

NUMBER

INDICATORS
Social impact of risk sources Impact on human life and health Impact on return of people Impact on education, culture and other forms of social development Economic impact of risk sources Areas blocked by mines and ERW Negative impact on potential agents of economic development Risk identication Kinds of risk from mines

METHODS AND PROCEDURES

12.2. 12.2.1. 12.2.2. 12.2.3. 12.3. 12.3.1. 12.3.2. 12.4. 12.4.1. 12.4.2. 13. 13.1. 13.1.1. 13.1.2. 13.1.3. 13.2. 13.2.1. 13.3. 13.3.1. 13.3.2. 13.3.3. 14. 14.1. 14.1.1. 14.1.2. 14.2. 14.2.1. 14.3. 14.3.1. 15. 15.1. 15.1.1. 15.1.2. 15.2. 15.2.1. 15.2.2. 15.2.3.

1. 2. 3.

Risk analysis Statistical analysis Data collection

1. 2. 3. 1. 2. 3.

Risk analysis Statistical analysis Data collection Risk analysis Statistical analysis Data collection

Average number of identied risks per one community BEHAVIOUR OF AFFECTED GROUPS AS A SOURCE OF RISK Risk groups Kinds of risk groups in B&H 1. Risk analysis 2. Statistical analysis Characteristics of the affected groups Number of affected groups Reasons to enter a mine suspected area Reasons to enter a mine suspected area 1. Risk analysis Frequency of entries to a mine suspected area Frequency of entries to a mine suspected area 1. Risk analysis Number of group members entering together a mine suspected area Structure of a group entering a mine suspected area STRATEGIC LEVEL PLANNING Adopted strategic documents Adopted mine action strategy 1. Comparative method 2. Document analysis procedure Special strategies adopted according to mine action components Relationship with state development strategy Do mine action operations represent a part of the 1. Comparative method medium-term development strategy, as one of 2. Document analysis procedure priorities? Correlation of mine action with other development priorities Way of coordinating activities with other 1. Comparative method development priorities 2. Document analysis procedure OPERATIONAL LEVEL PLANNING Annual state-level mine action plans Adopted mine action plans 1. Comparative method 2. Document analysis procedure Operational plans adopted according to mine action 3. components Planned activities of other participants Plans of government mine action organisations Plans of non-government mine action organisations Plans of private mine action organisations 1. 2. Comparative method Document analysis procedure

236

APPENDICES

NUMBER

INDICATORS
Humanitarian demining Mineeld clearance Survey of mineelds Measures to mark mine suspected areas Mine and ERW risk education Population education Public information Establishing links with the affected community Assistance to mine and ERW victims Activity coordination Number of organisations Mine stockpile destruction Results of destruction of stockpiles of mines and ERW Level of fullment of international obligations Standing against production, stockpiling and use of mines Ratication of international contracts and conventions Alignment with UN policy AFFECTED COMMUNITIES Way of mine action planning Mine and ERW risk assessment Assessment of needs and capacities Activity plan contents Expected effects Number of prepared plans Participants in planning process Way of realisation of plans Number of realised plans Results achieved in humanitarian demining Results achieved in mine risk education Level of risk reduction MINE ACTION PRIORITY SETTING Agents in charge of priority setting activities Who makes decision on mine action priorities? Bodies participating in priority setting process Way of making decisions Legislation for priority setting Criteria for priority setting Criteria for strategic planning Criteria for selection of locations for humanitarian demining

METHODS AND PROCEDURES

15.3. 15.3.1. 15.3.2. 15.3.3. 15.4. 15.4.1. 15.4.2. 15.4.3. 15.5. 15.5.1. 15.5.2. 15.6. 15.6.1. 15.6.2. 15.7. 15.7.1. 15.7.2. 16. 16.1. 16.1.1. 16.1.2. 16.1.3. 16.1.4. 16.1.5. 16.1.6. 16.2. 16.2.1. 16.2.2. 16.2.2. 16.2.4. 17. 17.1. 17.1.1. 17.1.2. 17.2. 17.2.1. 17.3. 17.3.1. 17.3.2.

1. 2. 3.

Comparative method Document analysis procedure Statistical analysis

1. 2. 3. 4. 1. 2.

Comparative method Content analysis Statistical analysis Data collection Comparative method Document analysis procedure

1. 2.

Comparative method Document analysis procedure

1. 2.

Comparative method Document analysis procedure

1. 2. 3. 4.

Risk analysis Data collection Document analysis procedure Statistical analysis

1. 2. 3. 4.

Risk analysis Data collection Document analysis procedure Statistical analysis

1.

Document analysis procedure

1. 1. 2. 3.

Document analysis procedure Risk analysis Document analysis procedure Data collection

237

PMA-1A

PMA-2

PMA-3

PMR-2AS

PMR-3

PROM-1P

MRUD

OTHER MINES

UNKNOWN MINES

TMM-1

TMA-1A

TMA-2A

TMA-3

TMA-4

TMA-5

TMRP-6

OTHER MINES

TOTAL BY TYPES OF MINES 9,033 7,963 1,139 598 15.11 12.76 18.08 624 63 40 722 662 3,599 13.70 12.24 7.10 5.77 4.85 22.48 8,259 459 2,325 1,854 678

20,531 37,005 49,321 101,068 3,258 13,410 8,984 15,243

525 8,450 7,207 2,101 13,146 3,747 6,568 150 1,065 215 204

NUMBER OF MINEFIELDS WITH SPECIFIC TYPE OF MINES

814 2,259

AVERAGE NUMBER OF MINES

25.22 16.38

13.13 11.70 10.89 14.01 12.34 17.43 32.20

Table 19: Analysis of the number of mines and mineelds according to the

mineeld database

TOTAL NUMBER OF REGISTERED MINEFIELDS WITH MINES WITH AT MINES 50,846 16.47% 15.65% 14,383 19.24 2,866 17.74 308,699 TOTAL 100% 78.53%

OVERVIEW

WITH AP MINES 83.53% 71.96%

MINEFIELD WITHOUT TOTAL NUMBER OF REGISTERED TYPES MIXED MINEFIELDS REGISTERED AND NUMBER OF MINEFIELDS MINES

TOTAL BY TYPES OF MINES

257,853

NUMBER OF MINEFIELDS WITH SPECIFIC TYPE OF MINES 19.56

13,180

3,932

21.47%

18,315

100%

1,663

9.08%

AVERAGE NUMBER OF MINES

Source: Minefield Database of the B&H Mine Action Centre

UNKNOWN MINES

238
ANTIPERSONNEL MINES ANTITANK MINES

DARVIN LISICA

ANALYSIS OF THE NUMBER OF MINES AND MINEFIELDS ACCORDING TO THE MINEFIELD DATABASE

APPENDICES

ANITIPERSONNEL MINES

PMA-1A PMA-2 0.2365 0.5388 0.0140 0.1780 0.6416 0.2111 0.5293 0.7378 20,531 814 25.22

0.2365

0.5388 0.4437

0.0140 0.2250 0.1096

0.1780 0.3183 0.0485 -0.0453

0.6416 0.4162 0.4136 0.2029 0.1844

0.2111 0.2515 0.0646 0.0664

0.5293 0.8982 0.8686 0.5968

ANTIPERSONNEL MINES

PMA-3 PMR-2AS PMR-3 PROM-1P MRUD OTHER AP MINES UNKNOWN AP MINES

0.4437 0.2250 0.3183 0.4162 0.2515 0.8982 0.9059 37,005 2,259 16.38 0.1096

0.0485 -0.0453 0.4136 0.0646 0.8686 0.7870 0.2029 0.0664 0.1844 0.1002

0.1002 -0.1310 0.2151 0.4458

0.2151 0.4458 0.0354

0.0354 -0.0092 -0.3229

0.5968 -0.1310 0.4238 0.0917 3,258 459 7.10

0.1508 -0.0092 -0.3229 13,410 2,325 5.77 8,984 1,854 4.85 15,243 678 22.48 9,033 598 15.11

TOTAL BY TYPES OF MINES

NUMBER OF MINEFIELDS WITH SPECIFIC TYPE OF MINES

49,321 101,068 3,599 13.70 8,259 12.24

AVERAGE NUMBER OF MINES

Table 20: The correlation matrix for mineelds with AP mines

ANTITANK MINES

TMM-1 TMA-1A 0.9712 0.4925 0.7477 0.4066 0.5962 0.5855 0.4632 -0.1516 3,424 149 22.98

0.9712

0.4925 0.8813

0.7477 0.6458 0.2370

0.4066 0.4408 0.3114 0.3932

0.5962 0.7766 0.6268 0.6344 0.5106

0.5855 0.22487

0.4632 -0.1516 0.4324 0.0000 0.0000 0.2625 0.0000

ANTITANK MINES

TMA-2A TMA-3 TMA-4 TMA-5 TMRP-6 OTHER AT MINES UNKNOWN AT MINES

0.8813 0.6458 0.4408 0.7766 0.2249 0.2370 0.3114 0.6268 0.0333

0.0333 -0.2206 0.3603 0.2541 0.1817 0.3389 0.3096

0.3932 0.6344 0.3603 0.3389 0.2625 11,886 947 12.55 0.5106 0.2541 0.3096

0.3051 -1.0000 0.1742 -0.7370

0.1817 0.3051 0.1742

0.4324 -0.2206 0.0000 6,689 438 15.27 0.0000 9,489 606 15.66

0.0000 -1.0000 -0.7370 452 118 3.83 1,834 387 4.74 1,868 346 5.40

0.0000 2,243 83 27.02 1,893 147 12.88

TOTAL BY TYPES OF MINES

NUMBER OF MINEFIELDS WITH SPECIFIC TYPE OF MINES

AVERAGE NUMBER OF MINES

Table 21: The correlation matrix for mineelds with AT mines

UNKNOWN AT MINES
0.0000

OTHER AT MINES

TMA-1A

TMA-2A

TMRP-6

TMM-1

TMA-3

TMA-4

TMA-5

THE CORRELATION MATRIX FOR MINEFIELDS WITH ANTITANK MINES

UNKNOWN AP MINES
0.7378 0.9059 0.7870 0.4238 0.0917 0.1508

OTHER AP MINES

PROM-1P

PMR-2AS

PMA-1A

PMA-2

PMA-3

MRUD

PMR-3

THE CORRELATION MATRIX FOR MINEFIELDS WITH ANTIPERSONNEL MINES

239

PMA-1A

PMA-2

PMA-3

PMR-2AS

PMR-3

PROM-1P

MRUD

OTHER AP MINES

UNKNOWN AP MINES

TMM-1

TMA-1A

TMA-2A

TMA-3

TMA-4

TMA-5

TMRP-6

OTHER AT MINES

UNKNOWN AT MINES

ANTIPERSONNEL MINES

ANTITANK MINES

240
ANTIPERSONNEL MINES ANTITANK MINES 0.3263 0.6994 0.9971 0.9982 0.4678 0.2769 0.7329 0.3019 0.0000 0.0000 0.8704 0.9305 0.4320 0.5441 0.1950 0.4193 -0.3386 0.8100 -0.0332 0.8100 0.1600 0.8958 0.7548 0.1774 1.0000 0.8679 0.2995 0.2257 0.3213 0.3370 0.8418 0.7809 1.0000 -0.0636 -0.0153 1,868 387 3.83 4.74 346 5.40 2,243 83 27.02 1,893 147 12.88 2,302 301 7.65 0.7286 0.7576 0.1489 0.1927 -0.0161 1.0000 0.5012 0.4193 0.0000 186 32 5.81 0.6157 0.0848 0.0000 0.2908 0.3566 0.3093 0.4363 0.0000 -1.0000 78 17 4.59 3,203 369 8.68 0.2123 0.3398 -0.0235 0.5752 0.0000 -0.0247 0.0000 -1.0000 -0.7370 2,642 327 8.08 725 63 11.51 5,519 638 8.65 0.0000 584 156 3.74 2,738 137 19.99 0.1600 0.1914 0.3408 0.4112 0.3449 0.1727 0.0543 0.3038 0.1407 0.0568 -0.0766 0.1422 0.0646 -0.0666 0.4066 0.0004 0.0993 -0.0187 0.2619 0.4154 0.2805 0.2083 0.9926 0.0967 0.4298 0.2168 0.6058 0.2275 0.0852 0.2702 0.3830 0.2940 -0.0629 0.1932 0.8928 0.9998 0.4843 0.9992 -0.3017 0.8958 0.7286 0.7548 0.7576 0.1774 0.1927 0.1489 -0.0161 0.2908 1.0000 0.3213 1.0000 0.6157 0.3566 0.2123 0.0766 0.7429 0.0000 0.7547 0.7682 -0.0656 0.3263 0.8107 0.8107 0.2530 0.5222 0.3608 0.8788 -0.0942 -0.2432 1.0000 1.0000 0.4193 0.4357 -0.0214 0.9971 0.2083 0.0967 0.4298 -0.0187 0.0568 0.7329 0.4112 0.0000 0.4320 0.0543 -0.0022 -0.0568 0.1932 0.8928 0.5159 0.0766 0.2574 -0.0598 0.9586 1,834 0.8635 0.9998 0.4843 0.2768 0.2024 -0.3017 0.0000 0.8704 0.9992 0.3449 0.1727 0.2940 0.9305 -0.3386 -0.0332 0.3019 0.2168 0.6058 0.2275 0.9926 0.0852 0.5477 0.8848 6,689 438 15.27 15.66 12.55 606 947 118 9,489 11,886 452 0.9678 0.3634 -0.3974 0.1635 0.0095 0.3510 0.2702 0.3830 -0.0629 0.0004 -0.0666 0.2805 0.0646 0.4154 0.1422 0.2619 -0.0766 0.0993 0.1407 0.3408 0.1914 0.1950 0.4066 0.3038 0.2769 0.5441 -0.2432 0.9982 0.4678 -0.5000 0.8788 -0.0942 0.1781 0.4187 0.0924 0.4531 0.2665 0.6692 0.0924 0.0904 0.0240 0.6692 0.4187 -0.5000 0.3220 0.0240 0.2665 0.1781 0.3220 0.0904 0.4531 -0.0214 0.5736 -0.0166 0.5397 0.3958 0.4692 0.6994 0.7429 0.4361 0.0714 0.0000 0.7547 0.0026 0.7682 -0.0656 0.7618 0.0847 3,424 149 22.98 0.2530 0.5222 0.3608 0.4357 0.5736 -0.0166 0.5397 0.3958 0.4692 0.4361 0.0714 0.0026 0.7618 0.5477 0.1635 0.0095 0.0847 0.8848 0.9678 0.3634 0.3510 -0.3974 0.2574 0.5159 -0.0598 0.8418 0.8679 0.3370 0.5012 0.0848 0.3093 0.3398 -0.0235 0.2995 0.9586 0.8635 1.0000 0.2257 -0.0636 0.7809 -0.0153 0.4193 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.4363 -1.0000 0.5752 0.0000 0.0000 -1.0000 -0.0247 -0.7370 0.0000 0.2768 -0.0022 0.2024 -0.0568

DARVIN LISICA

THE CORRELATION MATRIX FOR MIXED MINEFIELDS (WITH ANTIPERSONNEL AND ANTITANK MINES)

PMA-1A

PMA-2

PMA-3

PMR-2AS

PMR-3

PROM-1P

MRUD

OTHER AP MINES

UNKNOWN AP MINES

TMM-1

TMA-1A

TMA-2A

TMA-3

TMA-4

TMA-5

TMRP-6

Table 22: The correlation matrix for mixed mineelds

OTHER AT MINES

UNKNOWN AT MINES

TOTAL BY TYPES OF MINES

NUMBER OF MINEFIELDS WITH SPECIFIC TYPE OF MINES

AVERAGE NUMBER OF MINES

APPENDICES

RISK IDENTIFICATION IN THE AFFECTED COMMUNITY : (name of community, municipality)

ORGANIZATION: (name of organization)

IMACT AREA
SOCIAL ECONOMIC

SOURCES OF RISK

INDIVIDUAL HUMAN BEHAVIOUR

BEHAVIOUR OF SOCIAL GROUPS AND COMMUNITY

ECONOMIC CIRCUMSTANC ES

ENVIRONMENT

NATURAL PHENOMENA

MINE TREAT

CONTACT WITH MINES/uxo

ENTERING SUSPECTED AREA

DATE OF ISSUANCE

DATE OF REVISION 1

DATE OF REVISION 2

ISSUED

CONTROLLED

APPROVED

Table 23: The mine and ERW-risk identication matrix

241

RISK ID

10

11

12

13

Table 24: The risk register for the affected community

14

15

16

DATE OF ISSUANCE

DATE OF REVISION 1

DATE OF REVISION 2

PRIORITY LEVEL

DESCRIPTION OF THE WORST PROBABILITY POSSIBLE OF EVENT CONSEQUENCE

HAZARD LEVEL

IMPACT LEVEL

242
DESCRIPTION OF RISK POSSIBLE CONSEQUENCE OF RISK EVENT RISK LEVEL
MOST AFFECTED GROUP TYPE OF MEASURE ADEQUACY

THE RISK REGISTER FOR AFFECTED COMMUNITY: (name of community, municipality)

ORGANIZATION: (name of organization)

DARVIN LISICA

MEASURES TAKEN TO CONTROL RISK

POTENTIAL RISK EVENT

PLACE OF POTENTIAL EVENT

APPENDICES

Appendix 2: Model of an integrated mine action plan for the community affected by mines and ERW

INTEGRATED MINE ACTION PLAN FOR THE MINE AFFECTED COMMUNITY

NAME OF THE IMPACTED COMMUNITY, MUNICIPALITY

243

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DATE OF ISSUANCE

ORGANISATION

GENERAL INFORMATION ABOUT Area (km2) of the THE COMMUNITY community Present number of Pre-war number of population population Present structure of population 0-5 Number of families Number of people employed 6-14 Sex Men 15-18 structure in Women 19-30 percents Age structure Lower of population educational 31-42 in percents background Educational Secondary background school 43-54 in percents qualications University 55 qualications Summary of the socioeconomic situation in the community

MINE SITUATION IN THE Suspected area in km2 COMMUNITY Level of the risk from Number of suspected mines locations Estimated number of Number of AP mines /number mines of PROM Number of Killed people incidents Incidents/ Consequences Accidents Number of Wounded victims people Summary of the mine situation in the community

244

APPENDICES

MOST IMPORTANT IMPACTED GROUPS IMPACTED GROUP 1. Size of main group Level of mine impact Size of subgroup Number of Fatalities incidents Incidents/ Consequences Accidents Number of Injuries casualties Summary of the characteristics of the impacted group

MOST IMPORTANT IMPACTED GROUPS IMPACTED GROUP 1. Size of main group Level of mine impact Size of subgroup Number of Fatalities incidents Incidents/ Consequences Accidents Number of Injuries casualties Summary of the characteristics of the impacted group

245

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DESCRIPTION OF THE MAJOR RISKS TO BE TREATED Number Level of risk

Potential risk situation

Place of potential risk

The most highly impacted group

RISK /SUSPECTED AREAS ID number of general survey Potential benet Area in m2 Use Category of use Level of hazard Risk register numbers pertaining to location Priority level

246

Rank

Location name

APPENDICES

ACTIVITY PLAN FINAL GOAL: 1. specic goal 1.1. immediate goal 2. specic goal

STAGE: TASK Kind of activity Implementation period Investor Working task ID Performer Status

Humanitarian demining Mine risk education Assessment

WAY OF MINE ACTION INTEGRATION

EFFECTS EXPECTED TO BE ACHIEVED BY THE REALISATION OF THE PLAN

COMMUNITYS CONSENT

Appendices:

DATE OF ISSUANCE ISSUED BY

DATE OF REVISION 1. CONTROLLED BY

DATE OF REVISION 2. APPROVED BY

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NUMBER OF INHABITANS

NUMBER OF AFFECTED GROUPS PER COMMUNITY

Worker on water supply maintenance Workers on tarup and tractor drivers People who cut wood Villagers who enter a suspected area

NUMBER

Displaced persons

Children under 18

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS

Public workers

Snail collectors

Cattle breeders

Fruit growers

ZAJEDNICE, OP INE

Returnees

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Bijela Plo a Maglaj D.Dubravice Br ko Sase Srebrenica Kamenica Tesli Bokovi i Zvornik Vu ilovac Br ko Kre ane Modri a Turi Pelagi evo Sije Lukavac Mirosavci Lopare

350 50 50 380 92 150 21 60 138 140 263 20 30 36 510 183

1450 130 162 1500 380 260 65 100 258 549 842 50 68 110 2150 730 80 1100 182 4200 6000
20366

400

760 130 300 162

250 70

171 60 30 150 250 300 35 60 50 25 60 45 55 67 100 120 30 50 10 25 100 10 25 40 80 35 40

340 260 65 100 150 160 145 15 68 80 200 100 5 350 15 120 150 150 110 242

120 200 40 100 100 80

11 evarlije Doboj 12 Zavala Ravno

30 40 110 500 265 60 150 150 80 19 124 10 100 40 500 200 150
3052 2265

13 Kova ica Tuzla 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Jenji Donji abari Mati i Oraje Srbljani Biha

30

Avramovina 22 Grada ac Grebnice 280 Domaljevac . Brvnik 60 Domaljevac . Domaljevac 1050 Domaljevac . amac amac 2000
5885

300
1090 125 130 19.05% 24.76 0.47% 32.50 100 0.09% 4.76 4.76% 100.00

TOTAL - GROUP NUMEROUSNESS AVERAGE PER AFFECTED COMMUNITY FREQUENCY OF AFFECTED GROUPS IN COMMUNITIES

985

220

305

195

881

700

280.24

969.81

197.00

110.00

152.50

203.47

141.56

100.00

300

15

55

218.00

15.00

97.50

55.00

97.89

70.00

23.81%

71.43%

76.19%

42.86%

47.62%

14.29%

23.81%

2,180.00

WEIGHT (FREQUENCY x NUMEROUSNESS)

1,725.71

234.52

377.57

333.33

259.52

20.95

29.05

18.57

42.86

41.34%

32.73%

IMPACT LEVEL (RELATIVE WEIGHT)

4.45%

0.40%

0.55%

0.01%

0.35%

0.05%

7.16%

6.32%

0.81%

4.92%

Table 25: Frequency and level of mine impact on the most highly affected groups in the communities where risk assessment was made

248

0.34%

17.86

0.71

2.62

14.29%

9.52%

9.52%

4.76%

9.52%

4.76%

41.67

Tourists

Farmers

Hunters

Fishers

APPENDICES

Map 6: Perception of risk by the surveyed members of a household in Kamenica

249

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Appendix 3: Survey of households in four highly affected communities research outline

1.

Research outline: Transversal; survey of households in four selected communities affected by mines and UXO.1 Data collection method: Survey of households and married couples in them. Type of questionnaire: Complex, with half-closed questions, divided into four modules: a. b. c. d. Questionnaire for the community affected by mines and UXO Questionnaire for households Questionnaire for married couples women Questionnaire for married couples men

2. 3.

4.

Population: Four highly affected communities (Kamenenica in the Municipality of Tesli, Ulice in the Brko District, Kovaica in the Municipality of Tuzla and Sase in the Municipality of Srebrenica; a total of 453 households with around 2,000 inhabitants. Plan of sampling: Random sampling at several levels (multi-stage random sampling). a. Simple random sample from the list of households (random cluster sampling). Simple random sample of a married couple in a household (random sampling).

5.

b.

The follwong reference was used as the theory basis for the survey: Grosh, M.E. and Munoz, J.: A Manual for Planning and Implementing the Living Standards Measurement Study Survey, World Bank, Washington, 1996; Vujevi, M.: Uvoenje u znanstveni rad na podruju drutvenih znanosti, Zagreb, 1988; Fink, A.: How to Conduct Surveys, London, 2005; Termiz, D. And Milosavljevi, S.: Uvod u metodologiju politikologije, 1999 and Praktikum iz metodologije politikologije, Sarajevo, 2000.

250

APPENDICES

POPULATION

SAMPLE

NUMBER OF FILLED SURVEY QUESTIONNAIRES

QUESTIONNAIRES FOR SPOUSES - HUSBAND QUESTIONNAIRES FOR SPOUSES - WIFE QUESTIONNAIRE FOR HOUSEHOLDS QUESTIONNAIRE FOR AFFECTED COMMUNITIES

KAMENICA, TESLI MUNICIPALITY ULICE, BR KO DISTRICT KOVA ICA, TUZLA MUNICIPALITY SASE, SREBRENICA MUNICIPALITY FOR ALL AFFECTED COMMUNITIES

1500 270 68 162 2000

245 128 30 50 453

10% 20% 20% 20% 14.8%

25 26 6 10 67

NUMBER OF SPOUSES FOR SURVEY

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS FOR SURVEY

SAMPLE SIZE FOR HOUSEHOLDS

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS

NUMBER OF INHABITANTS

SURVEY FOR RISK ASSESSMENT IN THE AFFECTED COMMUNITIES SAMPLING PLAN

25 26 6 10 67

1 1 1 1 4

25 26 6 10 67

25 26 6 10 67

25 26 6 10 67

Table 26: The plan of sampling by the communities affected by mines and UXO with results

251

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252