Crime in the Future

Harry Sherman November 14, 2012 Futures: Past & Present Crime is one of the larger difficulties that have faced humanity since the dawn of civilization. How does one instate a legal code that forces people of myriad backgrounds to abide by a set of common rules? The concerns and causes of crime today are manifold, and the maintenance of effective policing is of paramount importance. However, of all the forms of crime prevention and policing that will undoubtedly arise, perhaps the single most important development that will change the outcome of crime in America is the growth of informational infrastructure. Information will allow us to fight terrorism and organized crime; information will allow us to usher in an era of automation of police activities; information will bring police forces greater efficacy; information will change the demographic of crime; information will change the prophylactic treatment of crime. Among the most prevalent thoughts in the minds of American citizens today are the constant threat of terrorism and international crime, increased crime due to growing wealth disparity, the elimination or reduction of violent crime, the increasing reach of criminals due to criminal use of informational technologiesall of which can be described as blue-collar crimeand the recent growth of white collar crime. The fear of terrorism America has been strengthened in recent years, in part due to the tragedy and loss caused by the terrorist attacks of 9/11. As a result, counterterrorism measures have stepped up dramatically, but the fears persist. Terrorism and counterterrorism are generally classified as asymmetric warfare rather than crime, however, the line between crime and terrorism is blurry at best. Terrorist organizations, if not considered criminal, and their violent acts not considered violent crimes but rather acts of war,

then there is still the issue of contraband smuggling. Al Qaeda, according to Tim McGirk, a writer for Time magazine, has established a smuggling network that is peddling Afghan heroin to buyers across the Middle East, Asia and Europe, and in turn is using the drug revenues to purchase weapons and explosives. Terrorist organizations undertake the same criminal activities as do perpetrators of organized crime: both are guilty of distributing drugs, trafficking humans and firearms, and migrant smuggling (McGirk, National, Brunker). As such, terrorism and the infrastructure required to maintain it is treated as a type of crime in this paper. Recently, there have been disputed reports of a Salvadorian GangMara Salvatruchasmuggling terrorists into the United States by way of Arizona (KVOA, Williams). Although the reports are of questionable quality, the allegations of terrorists being smuggled in by coyotes raises a valid point; future police and border protection will have to tighten border security and internal counterterrorism measures to keep the nation safe. The report from Tucson Eyewitness News stated that a border patrol informant to the news agency stated that Middle Eastern males were smuggled into the United States, and, they were here to carry out a terrorist attack on this country (KVOA). This questionable report was partially corroborated by George Godwin in his book, Cain, or the Future of Crime. Godwin reported that while immigration provides obvious benefits; it often brings with it unwelcome elements as well. For instance, MS-13 is an uncommonly violent gang, tailor made for a world of disappearing boundaries, with members routinely moving from El Salvador to the U.S. and back (55). There are inherently xenophobic undertones to Godwins and the Tucson Eyewitness News statements, but the concern of international crime organization is legitimate. Mike Brunker, a reporter for MSNBC, reported in 2011 that Yakuza, and other Asian crime organizations have not only penetrated onto American soil, but have established crime syndicates that perform fantastically illegal acts. As Brunker

states, the triads, who have extensive networks both within and outside of the United States, are master traffickers: 100,000 Chinese are illegally smuggled into the country each year, many of them forced to live in involuntary servitude for years while they work of their debt to the gangsters. Increased immigration means more fluid international organizations, which will need to be addressed by future police forces. In addition to the fears of terrorism and the fluidity and adaptability of international gangs, the growing wealth disparity in the United States has created domestic motivations for crime. The gap between the wealthy and the poor has grown tremendously in recent years, as evidenced by the Occupy Wall Street movement. Furthermore, the number of unemployed individuals has risen, and is only now seeing a modest recovery. Unemployed persons commit more crimes than employed individuals, so depending on the distribution and availability of jobs around the future United States will affect crime tremendously (Edmark). Although Karin Edmark, an economics PhD, writes that unemployed persons commit more crime, it is important to keep in mind that Edmarks prediction does not match the current day data exactly. Mackenzie Weigner, a writer for Politico, the political journalism newspaper based out of Arlington, Virginia, reported that according to [the] Organization for Economic Cooperation and Developmentincome inequality is on the rise in the United States and most other developed countries (Weinger). One would expect a corresponding rise in crime, but this does not match the data from the Los Angeles Times. Matt Pearce wrote for the Los Angeles Times that the United States is almost safer than ever, according to the latest statistics from the FBIs Uniform Crime Reporting Program. Although the United States is safer than ever, it is not generally accepted to be safer; Steven Pinker reports that when I tell my reasonably intelligent sister that children are probably safer today than at any time in human history she scoffs at me as if I am

telling her that cigarettes have nothing to do with lung cancer (Pinker). Since the United States is extremely safe at the moment, it unsettles the claim that the unequal distribution of wealth causes crime. In fact, no one knows why violent crime has so steadily declined, but it is possible that the decrease in violent crime was due to the rise of social state as opposed to the independent clan or tribe (Steven). Perhaps one of the greater tools that police forces will have at their disposal in the future is the proliferation of technologies available for fighting crime. Of the numerous technologies that will undoubtedly come into existence in the coming years, a handful of inventions will be particularly useful, notably the automation of previously human-completed tasks and the numerous possibilities created by the implementation of the Radio Frequency Identification chip (RFID). Recently, police forces have purchased and begun utilizing Automatic License Plate Readers (ALPR). According to ESLAG, a manufacturer of ALPR systems, the ALPR can record plates at about one per second at speeds of up to 100 MPH and they often utilize infrared cameras for clarity and to facilitate reading at any time of day or night. The ALPR represents the automation of tasks undertaken by police forces that were previously only preformed by human beings. Equally, if not more important than the automation of policing practices is the incorporation of automatic information distributing technologies, such as the RFID chip. Joseph A. Schafer, in a report coordinated with Federal Bureau of Investigation, says that RFID chips can be embedded into anything that needs to be tracked or identified. In fact, one of the latest RFID applications to emerge has been [RFID] implantation into humans for security, medical and other identification purposes (Schafer 81). This gives law enforcement agencies plethora new abilities, from identifying stolen goods, to possibly limiting who can fire a firearm. The gun manufacturers could plant an RFID chip in a gun, and a corresponding RFID

chip in a wristband or embedded directly into the wrist of the firearm user; the gun would be disabled if both RFID chips were not in range of each other (Schafer 81). Conceivably, the effect that this would have on law enforcement, in addition to essentially the elimination of trafficking stolen firearms due to the necessity of the wristband to fire the weapon, would be similar to the OnStar vehicle shutdown system. The OnStar vehicle shutdown system allows OnStar operators to cut power to the engine of a stolen vehicle, slowly forcing the vehicle to a stop (Siler). Feasibly, police or a firearm technician similar to an OnStar operator could identify the RFID of the gun and wristband and interrupt the transmission, thereby eliminating the ability to fire the gun. More importantly than the RFID chips will be the use of battlefield awareness technologies by both criminals and police forces. Increased weapon-to-human compatibility and information flow both improve efficiency greatly. The improvement of human-technology information flow is consistent with the prediction that whichever party holds the informational advantage will also hold the tactical advantage in any situation. Imagine a future where police officers, like jet fighter pilots, have access to an augmented reality HUD that, as Schafer states, is evidence of the trend of computers increasing ability to incorporate digital information directly into their real-world view (83). The United States military has already displayed interest in augmented reality systems for their soldiers, and have experimented with it, as shown by the Naval Research Laboratorys paper on augmented reality research issues and applications. Indeed, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) invested in a project called LifeLoga user interface worn over the eyes in a manner similar to glasses that recorded all interactions of the userwhich would allow users to recall a network of recordings, creating a sort of collective memory (Schachtman, Schafer 86). The collective memory would allow officers and detectives

access to all their peers information as if they had experienced it firsthand, further enlarging the informational advantage that the officers would have. The police forces of the future could learn from todays military forces and utilize their methods of reconnaissance in order to gain the informational advantage. As the FBI reported in their paper, Policing 2020, the Los Angeles Police Department is taking a page out of the United States militarys book of strategy and testing the use of Unmanned Arial Vehicles (UAVs) for surveillance and increased battlefield awareness of police officers (Schafer 84). This would provide the Los Angeles Police Department a tactical advantage while monitoring gang movement, and would undoubtedly increase officer awareness of the criminals strength, weapons, and any backup they may have. The more information the police force has access to, the more effectively the force will perform. The future may also bring unforeseen advances in effective policing due to informational strength; the 2002 film Minority Report, starring Tom Cruise presents a future where the police have access to the information on crimes before they occur. Fast deploy technologies including police-operated Vertical Take Off and Landing (VTOL) vehicles and fast ropes out descending from the airborne squad vehicles. In the film, the police department was able to predict violent crime before it happened, and thus was able to reduce the murder rate by 90% (Minority Report). The film was essentially showing a modification on the analysis of crime trends. As Schafer writes, crime is not a social phenomenon that occurs at random. Crime follows certain temporal patterns by time of day, day of week, and season, and as such can be effectively predicted. Predictive policing is already a strategy employed by current police departments, and while it may be possible to improve these technologies, it absurd and to think that predictive policing tools could become so advanced that the system could predict the culprit of a crime before the

crime occurred (Klein). The film was obviously a Hollywood produced and dramatized vision of the future, but analysis of crime trends is extremely important in todays police departments. The San Antonio police departments also closely observes so-called crime hotspots at certain hours of the day; at certain days of the week; at certain weeks of the month; at certain seasons of the year. The San Antonio police department has even expanded the reach of predictive policing to look for specific crimes at different times (Schafer 279). Crime can be predicted effectively. Furthermore, appears that the force that has the best informational infrastructure will have the upper hand. The improvement of information infrastructure is not enabling solely law enforcement officials, however. Criminals have taken advantage of the new abilities offered by the information superhighway. In November of 2008, terrorists launched a siege on Mumbai and ushered in a new era of technologically savvy criminals. The terrorists had AK-47s and hand grenades, but more importantly, they had night vision goggles, phones, satellite phones, and an operations center across the border in Pakistan (Marc). As Marc Goodman reported in his TED Talk: They monitored the BBC, CNN, Al Jazeera, and Indian Local stations. They also monitored the internet and social media. To monitor the progress of their attacks and how many people they had killed. They did this in real time. The innovation of the terrorist operations center gave the terrorists unparalleled situational awareness and tactical advantage over the police and the government. The siege lasted for days, due to the terrorists strong informational network. The strength of information in a conflict became apparent when the operations center googled the name of a prisoner, found he was a wealthy businessman, and gave the kill order to operatives on the ground. The implication of this, as Goodman stated, is that a search engine can determine who

shall live and who shall die. Indeed, those who control the information of the future will have the upper hand in any confrontation. The expansion of information has, while increasing the capability for crime, has also reduced crime. As George Godwin previously stated, punishment for crimes initially came into being because the crime damaged the family unit and threatened the survival of the clan. As humans, we dont hurt those close to us, but according to Steven Pinkers TED Talk, the circle has expanded. One can, in historical record, see it expanding from the village, to the clan, to the tribe, to the nation, to other races, to both sexes. This has been made possibility by the capacity to make the globe smaller and more accessible. The future of crime will be determined by the capacity to utilize information. Police forces in the future will need to enhance their battlefield awareness programs to compete with the growing informational programs of criminals. In some ways, this transformation has already begun. Perhaps the most notable advancement and trend in battlefield awareness systems being implemented in crime fighting agencies is the use of the SST, Inc.s ShotSpotter system microphone arrays planted around cities that can pinpoint gunshots immediately after they happen with an accuracy of approximately 80 feet (Watters).

The SST ShotSpotter system array mounted on a streetlight (Neymen)

Allison Klein, a writer for the Washington Post, reported that officers in the Washington D.C. metropolitan area increasingly rely on ShotSpotter to locate gunfire. The city of Washington recently expanded the ShotSpotter system in the city, and the police department has begun using

the system to help figure out the best places to strengthen patrols (Klein). The new technology, however, has led to police forces undertaking risky maneuvers and pursuing perpetrators without waiting for backup. Officer Martin Ziebarth of Oakland, California was filing paperwork at the police station when the system alerted Ziebarth of a shooting at 1:49 AM; Ziebarth was shot dead on scene at 1:57 AM (Watters). Every time a new piece of technology is introduced, there is a learning period with decreased efficiency before users really figure out how to effectively use the equipment. There are technologies implemented by the general population to reduce crime as well. A particularly visionary strategy for civilians to limit the crime that can occur in their presence is a tool called Crime Prevention through Environmental Design (CPTED). The premise of CPTED is that crime can be reduced by utilizing aspects of the environment, and that, according to the Municipal Center of Virginia Beach, Virginia, proper design and effective use of the built environment can lead to a reduction in the incidence and rear of crime, and an improvement in the quality of life (4). CPTED may be a useful tool in crime prevention in the future, and so it is important to thoroughly understand the four principles of CPTED. The four elements of CPTED are Natural Surveillance, Natural Access Control, Territorial Reinforcement, and Maintenance. Natural surveillance is when all points of a structure are easily visible to many other parts of the property so that anyone in one part of the property may provide surveillance on the property and deter crime by making the criminal more visible to all persons within the property (Municipal Center 7). Natural access controlthe second principalmakes the area of entry small and relatively inaccessible so that the flow of intruders may be controlled. The third pillar, territorial reinforcement, is the use of environmental objects such as shrubs and fences to make it obvious that some property is private.

Lastly, the property must be maintained to reduce crime. As stated in the summery of CPTED by the Municipal Center of Virginia Beach, deterioration and blight indicate less concern and control by the intended users of a site and indicate a greater tolerance of disorder; what the city of Virginia Beach has effectively outlined in this last pillar of CPTED is essentially Rudolph Giulianis Broken Window theory. When Rudolph Giuliani was the mayor of New York City, Giuliani implemented a strategy for crime reduction which has since been called the Broken Window strategy. The theory is that petty crimes must be treated with draconian severity to prevent larger crimes and the general dissolution and degradation of society. However, Hope Corman and Naci Mocan in their 2005 article remained stalwart in their opposition to the Broken Windows theory. Corman and Mocan declared the theory ineffectual; the amount of reported crimes decreased in New York during the period of data collection, as did the numbers of arrest. However, the arrest rate increased because the percentage decrease in arrests is smaller than the percentage decrease in crime (Corman). The Broken Windows theory, like many other theories to explain the connection between society and crime, falls short of being a useful theory. Nonetheless, developments in crime prevention and policing march onwards. While the general trend of policing effectiveness with the advent of new pieces of technology is movement is a positive direction, but there are frequent and periodic setbacks to police effectiveness. As such, the future effectiveness of policing is represented in the graph inset below, where the x axis is time and the y axis is policing effectiveness.

f(x)=((5)(.8^x)sin(10x))+(-(.8)^(x-17))+50

Every time a new technology is introduced, there is a period of decreased efficiency until use of that technology reaches a tipping point and begins to increase policing effectiveness again. Eventually, the effectiveness of policing will reach an asymptote, and each new technology will create increasingly smaller setbacks as effectiveness trends toward a flat line. Nevertheless, the general trend of policing effectiveness is positive. The demographic who commits crime is swiftly changing, even as policing is becoming more effective. According to Georgette Bennett, author of Crimewarps, the nature of crime is shifting from violent crime to white collar crime (1). Bennett states that the chances of being a street crime victim are getting smaller and will continue to shrink for the next several decades (2). Furthermore, This shift is occurring because of the increased difficulty of committing traditional street crimes, such as assault, and the increased ease and reach of committing crimes that seem wide reaching and intelligent. As Goodman reported, the ability of one to affect many is scaling exponentiallyyou can now commit more crimes. This new upper echelon of crimes is only accessible to the educated and technology savvy. When the Playstation Network was hacked, one person was able to collect information on hundreds of thousands of people. When in history has one person been able to directly steal from hundreds of thousands of people simultaneously? (Marc). The more educated and complex criminal has an advantage over the

uneducated street criminal. It is possible that the increase of white collar crime is due in part to more effective policing of blue-collar crimes. Because one is less likely than ever to commit a street crime and safely get away with it, the risk-reward scale is skewed in favor of not committing said crime. Nonetheless, crimes that require a higher level of education and access to greater resources and technologies seem more and more attractive, and are becoming an increasingly larger share of the crimes committed annually. How the criminal demographic and criminal reach changes in the coming years depends on a handful of variables, notably the state of the economy, the future of military technologies, and most importantly, the future of education. As shown before, the state of crime is inexorably tied to the economic state. Unemployment has debatably tied to crime, so it may be the case that the most effective method of fighting crime isnt by responding to the crimes, but by taking a proactive approach and addressing the causes of crime (Schafer 290). If wealth inequity is reduced, if living conditions are improved, if environments are made less conducive to crime through the principles of CPTED, if police departments are given new technologies to analyze and respond to crime, then crime will undoubtedly be reduced, but perhaps the single most important prophylactic measure we can now take against crime, is the improvement and spread of education.

Inset graph based on (Lochner)

As reported in the 2003 paper written by Lance Lochner, professor of economics the University of Western Ontario, and Enrico Moretti, professor of economics at the University of California at Los Angeles, schooling reduces the rate of incarceration greatly (1). A ten percent increase in graduation rates would greatly reduce crime in the United States. So much so, in fact, that Lochner and Moretti report that a ten percentage point increase in graduation rates would reduce murder and assault arrest rates by about 20%, motor vehicle theft by about 13%, and arson by 8% (20). An increase in the education freely given to the public would reduce state costs as well, as estimates suggest that a 1% increase in male high school graduation rates would save as much as $1.4 billion, or about $2,100 per additional male high school graduate

(Lochner 3). The increase in education may very well be in our future. As Ericssons Networked Society reports, it is estimated that during the next 30 years, more children will graduate than the total of all graduations in history. Indeed, although public education has recently faced numerous budget cuts, there is great interest in improving education. Charter schools and private schools have proliferated in recent years, and are shifting the burden of education from the state to the private sector. An increase in the level of education in the United States is possibly one of the more effective tools that we have at our disposal now. How crime is counteracted in the future is dependent on a number of external factors, including the invention and spread of information technologies within police departments, the state of the economy, the state of education, and the use of alternative environmental crime control technologies. Police departments of the future will have to deal with criminals that have unheard of levels of informational awareness, and will have to combat the criminals with the police forces own increased informational awareness. The future will lie in the hands of whoever controls the information.

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I pledge all work contained herein is my work unless otherwise indicated. I would like to thank Alec Grey and Alex Rubarsky for editing this paper.