ProtectYourBusiness ThisHurricaneSeason

GerryBell,Ph.D.,NOAA/NWS/ClimatePredictionCenter BobBoyd,President&CEO,AgilityRecovery
Forcopiesoftheslidespresentedduringtodayssession, pleasevisit:

http://agil.me/sba2013hurricaneprep

Dr.GerryBell
1. NOAAs2013hurricaneseasonoutlooks

BobBoyd
2. PreparingYOUROrganization 3. LessonsLearned

Agenda

 LeadAtlantichurricaneseasonalforecasterattheNOAAClimate PredictionCenter HisresearchledtotheestablishmentofNOAAsseasonalAtlantic hurricaneoutlooksin1998 Specializesinmonitoringglobalclimatevariability,especiallypatterns relatedtotheElNio,themultidecadalcycle,andotherlargescale atmosphericprocesses. Publishedmultipletimes,appearedonmanymajorbroadcast networks,andgivenmanylecturesontropicalweather ReceivedtheprestigiousNOAA2005IsaacKleinAwardforhisleading roleindevelopingNOAAsseasonalAtlantichurricaneoutlooks.

Dr.GerryBell
NOAAClimatePredictionCenter

NOAAsHurricaneSeasonOutlooks
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/hurricane www.climate.gov/newsfeatures/videos
GerryBell,Ph.D.,NOAA/NWS/ClimatePredictionCenter
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/hurricane

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7.

FeaturesofNOAAshurricaneseasonoutlooks NOAAs2013hurricaneseasonoutlooks TheAtlantichurricaneseasonoutlook Recipeforahurricane SciencebehindNOAAshurricaneseasonoutlooks Hurricanelandfalls Summary

1.FeaturesofNOAAshurricaneseasonoutlooks AtlanticBasin StormTracks19802005 CentralandEasternNorthPacific StormTracks19802005

MainDevelopmentRegion

CentralPacific

EasternPacific

ImagesCourtesyofWikipedia
NOAAissuesseasonalhurricaneoutlooksfortheAtlanticbasin,thecentral NorthPacific,andtheeasternNorthPacific.

NOAAsSeasonalOutlookRegions

1.

FeaturesofNOAAshurricaneseasonoutlooks

Active/inactiveseasonsoftenresultfromcoherentsetofatmospheric conditionscontrolledbytropicalclimatepatterns.NotRandom. Predictingtropicalclimatepatternsisthebasisformakingaseasonal hurricaneoutlook. Outlooksindicatetheexpectedoverallseasonalactivity. OutlooksareNOTaseasonalhurricanelandfallpredictionanddonot predictlevelsofactivityforanyparticularregion. Outlooksareprobabilistic,meaningthestatedrangeshaveacertain likelihoodofoccurring.

FeaturesofNOAAsHurricaneSeasonOutlooks

2.NOAAs2013hurricaneseasonoutlooks

NOAAsoutlooksindicateexpectedoverallseasonalactivity.Theyarenotaseasonal hurricanelandfallprediction.Personsinhurricaneproneregionsshouldprepareevery yearregardlessoftheseasonaloutlook.

NOAAs2013HurricaneSeasonOutlooks

3.NOAAsAtlantichurricaneseasonoutlook

Atlantichurricaneseasonrunsfrom1Junethrough30November. Mosthurricaneactivity(90%ormore)occursduringAugustOctober. Wearenow18yearsintoahighactivityeraforAtlantichurricanes thatbeganin1995. 12ofthelast18seasonshavebeenabovenormal,comparedtoonly twoabovenormalseasonsduringtheprecedinglowactivityera1971 1994. Noconsensusonhowlongthecurrenthighactivityerawilllast. Historically,high andlowactivityerashavelasted2540years.

AtlanticHurricaneSeasonBasics

3.NOAAsAtlantichurricaneseasonoutlook

ThisoutlookwillbeupdatedinearlyAugust.
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/hurricane/

2013AtlanticHurricaneSeasonOutlook

3.NOAAsAtlantichurricaneseasonoutlook

NOAAAtlantichurricaneseasonoutlooksissuedinMayhavecorrectly predictedtheseasonstrength(Above,near,orbelownormal)70%ofthe time.OutlooksissuedinAugustwerecorrect79%ofthetime. HowWellNOAAOutlooksHaveDoneinthePast

3.NOAAsAtlantichurricaneseasonoutlook

ACEindexmeasuresoverallseasonstrengthbyaccountingforthecombined number,intensity,anddurationoftropicalstormsandhurricanes. 2013ExpectedSeasonStrength ComparedtoPastSeasons

3.1Atlantichurricanessince1995comparedto19711994

Atlantic Hurricanes
10 8 6 4 2 0 1971-1994 1995-2012 Average Hurricanes Per Season 4 3 2

Atlantic Major Hurricanes 3.7

8 5

1 0

1.5
1971-1994 1995-2012

Average Major Hurricanes Per Season

Since 1995, the number of hurricanes has increased by 60% compared to the 19711994 period, and the number of major hurricanes has more than doubled. ComparingHurricaneNumbersBetween High andLowActivityAras

4.Recipeforahurricane

WarmOcean Apreexistingdisturbance Areaoflowpressureandthunderstorms movingwestwardfromAfrica Nottoomuchwindshear

RecipeforaHurricane

4.Recipeforahurricane

MainDevelopment Region

WarmOcean

4.Recipeforahurricane

APreExistingDisturbance

4.Recipeforahurricane

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS

EYE

LOWER-LEVEL WINDS

LOWER-LEVEL WINDS

WEAK SHEAR = FAVORABLE

STRONG SHEAR = UN FAVORABLE

high clouds

low clouds

NotTooMuchWindShear

4.Recipeforahurricane
Warmer Ocean

Warmer Ocean Reduced Wind Shear Higher Pressure in Lower Air Pressure Upper Atmosphere Warmer (Red Area) Atlantic SSTs Wetter, stronger West African Favorable African Easterly Jet Monsoon Main Development Region (MDR)

Drier

Weaker Trade Winds (Dark Blue Arrow)

Upper- level Easterly winds expand westward (Green arrows)

Thissetofconditionshasstronglinkstotropicalclimatefactors.Thereisan extensivemonitoringprogramtoassessandpredicttheseconditionsandthe climatefactors. TypicalConditionsAssociatedwith ActiveAtlanticHurricaneSeasons

5.SciencebehindNOAAshurricaneseasonoutlooks

ThreemainclimatefactorsstronglycontrolAtlantichurricane season 1. Tropicalmultidecadal(2540year)signal:Reflects fluctuationsinWestAfricanmonsoonstrength,andthewind andairpressurepatternsacrossthetropicalAtlanticOcean. 2. ElNioandLaNia;Reflectlargeyeartoyearchangesin tropicalPacificOceantemperatures. 3. AtlanticOceantemperatures

NOAAsseasonaloutlooksarebasedonpredictionsofthese climatefactors,alongwithasuiteofclimatemodelforecasts.
ScienceBehindNOAAs HurricaneSeasonOutlooks

5.SciencebehindNOAAshurricaneseasonoutlooks
Warmer Ocean

Main Development Region (MDR) Warmer Ocean

Stronger, Wetter West African Monsoon

Drier

Thisclimatepatternlasts2540years,andproduceshighactivityera forAtlantichurricanes:warmerwaters,reducedwindshear,favorable windsthatstrengthencloudsystemscomingfromAfrica.

TropicalMultiDecadalSignal

5.SciencebehindNOAAshurricaneseasonoutlooks ElNioandLaNiareflectlargeyeartoyearchanges intropicalPacificOceantemperatures. ElNio

StrongerWindShear,FewerHurricanes

LaNia
WeakerWindShear,MoreHurricanes

Warm,Wet

More Shear

Cool,Dry

Less Shear

ElNiosuppresseshurricaneactivity. Itsstrongwindshearcanprevent hurricanesfromforming,andcanalso killanexistinghurricane.

LaNiafavorsmorehurricane activitybydecreasingthevertical windshear.

ElNioandLaNia

6.Hurricanelandfalls

HurricaneandTropicalStormhazardsinclude: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Stormsurge Inlandflooding Heavyrains HighWinds Tornadoes Ripcurrents

HurricaneandTropicalStormHazards

Slide3.1Repeated:Atlantichurricanessince1995comparedto19711994

Atlantic Hurricanes
10 8 6 4 2 0 1971-1994 1995-2012 Average Hurricanes Per Season 4 3 2

Atlantic Major Hurricanes 3.7

8 5

1 0

1.5
1971-1994 1995-2012

Average Major Hurricanes Per Season

Since 1995, the number of hurricanes has increased by 60% compared to the 19711994 period, and the number of major hurricanes has more than doubled. ComparingHurricaneNumbersBetween High andLowActivityEras

6. Hurricane landfalls U.S. Hurricane Landfalls

2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0

1.9 1.3

1971-1994

1995-2012

Average U.S. Hurricane Landfalls Per Season

Since1995U.S.hasaveragedalmosttwohurricanelandfallsper season,analmost50%increasecomparedto19711994.

ComparingU.S.HurricaneLandfalls BetweenHigh andLowActivityEras

6.Hurricanelandfalls

High Activity: 24 Years 1959-1970, 1995-2006

Low-Activity: 24 Years 1971-1994

MainDevelopmentRegion

MainDevelopmentRegion

In a high activity era, many more hurricanes and major hurricanes form and make landfall. In active seasons, many storms form in the Main Development Region (MDR). Less active seasons have little activity in MDR.

AtlanticHurricaneTracks

6.Hurricanelandfalls
US Hurricane Landfalls
Percent of Seasons 100 80 60 40 20 0 One or more Two or more Three or more Number of Hurricane landfalls

KEY: VeryActiveSeasons OtherAboveNormalSeasons

The probability for multiple U.S. hurricane landfalls increases sharply for very active seasons (red bars, ACE > 165% of median), even when compared to other abovenormal seasons (blue bars). Since 1995, there have been 8 very active seasons (There were none during 19711994.).

HurricaneLandfallsinAboveNormalSeasons

6.Hurricanelandfalls Florida
HighActivity Era

Low-Activity Era

High Active Era Low-Activity Era

FloridaPopulationGrowthSince1900

6.Hurricanelandfalls

Hurricane Katrina; 2005

Eye was 30 miles across Hurricane winds extend 125 miles from center. New Orleans and Biloxi were both in eye wall at same time. Biloxi New Orleans Outer edge of Eye Wall

HurricaneKatrina

6.Hurricanelandfalls

Leadingcauseofdeathisnowfrominlandflooding.

HurricanesNotJustaCoastalEvent

6.Hurricanelandfalls
Track of Irene

MH Irene in Bahamas

MH Irene east of Florida

H Irene along U.S. East Coast

HurricaneIrene:2011(NASA)

6.Hurricanelandfalls

7+ Inches

12345 6789

HurricaneIreneRainfallTotals(Inches)

6.Hurricanelandfalls

Figures from accuweather.com

Confluenceoffactors: Largestorm Hitsheavilypopulatedcoastline Athightidemassivestormsurge Producesdevastatingflooding

HurricaneSandy(October2013)

6.Hurricanelandfalls

HurricanePreparednessWeek:Thisweek

7.Summary
Strongscientificbasisformakingseasonalhurricaneoutlooks. Anabovenormal,possiblyveryactive,2013Atlantichurricane seasonisexpected. Atlantichighactivityerabeganin1995.Thesetypicallylast25 40years. LargebuildupoftheU.S.EastCoastandGulfCoastsince1970. HurricanesNOTjustacoastalevent;impactmillionsinmany differentways(stormsurge,coastalandinlandflooding,winds, rain,tornadoes) Prepareforeveryhurricaneseasonregardlessoftheseasonal outlook.

Summary

AREYOUPREPAREDforthe2013HurricaneSeason? ExcellentHurricanePreparednessInformation

www.ready.gov www.nhc.noaa.gov

QUESTIONS?
GerryBell,Ph.D. NOAAClimatePredictionCenter

STAYTUNEDforthebestwaystoprepare YOUROrganizationforthethreatsof TropicalWeatherSystems

IsYOUROrganizationPreparedforthe 2012HurricaneSeason? PreparednessStepsand LessonsLearned

BobBoyd
President&CEO AgilityRecovery

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8.

Assessriskstoyourcriticaloperationalfunctions. Backupyourdata&ensureremoteaccess. Adviseyoursupplychainofactionstaken. Activatecrisiscommunicationplan&TestIt. Resupplyemergencykits. Establishcontactwithyourinsuranceprovider. Considertheneedforalternatelocations. EnsureEmployeesarePersonallyPrepared.

9.

**Note Stepsabovedonotconstituteacompleteplan. AfullDisasterRecoveryBusiness/ContinuityStrategy isrequiredformaximumresilience.

KeyStepsToPreparedness

Whattypesofemergencieshave occurredinthepastfollowingstorms inyourarea? Whatcouldhappenasaresultofyour officelocation(s)? Whattypesofissuescouldresultfrom thedesignorconstructionofyour facilities? Whatcouldresultfromaprocess, systemorsupplychainfailure? Aretheredifferentrisksforshortand longterminterruptions? Aretransportationorcommunication systemfailureslikely? Arecriticalemployeespersonally preparedtoendurethestorm?

AssessingRiskstoCriticalFunctions

 Realizethelimitationsof outsourcedITManagement
LackofResponsiveness Staffing/Availability CommunicationGaps

Automated,Dailybackups. Storeinanoffsite,secure location,outsideofyourregion Testafullrestorationregularlyto remotelocationorsecondary servers.Documentthetime& bandwidthresourcesrequired

BackingUpDataProperly

SupplyChain:theexternalvendorsandsuppliersyourelyonto deliveryoureverydayservicesandproductstomembers/customers.
Talktoyourkeyvendorsand suppliersabouttheirrecoveryplans.
Askyourselfhasitbeentested?

Developrelationshipswithalternate vendors.
Eliminatesinglepointsoffailure.

Educateyourclientsaboutthe importanceofpreparedness. Insurewhatcantbeprotected. Ensureyourcrisisscenariodoesnt havesupplychainholes Keeppartnersjustasinformedas youremployeesduringrecovery

PreparingYourSupplyChain

 Developaprocesstomakesureallstakeholders(internaland external)areawareofdecisionsandexpectations. Ensureredundanciesindependent ofcellorterrestrial networksasmuchaspossible

EnsurePhoneListisUPTODATE(withalternatephone#s) Utilizemultiplecellphonenetworkcarriersifpossible Establishphonetree Passwordprotectedwebpage(centralizedemergencystatus) SocialMediastrategy&usage Emailalert(haveprimary&secondaryemailaddresses) Callinrecordingsystem Text/DataAlertsystem Ensureeveryonefamiliarwithsystem

Managecustomerandkeyvendorcommunications. Prepareamediacommunicationsplan. Testtheplanregularlyandinthedayspriortoanotice event

ActivatingYourCrisisCommunicationsPlan

 Recoveryplan Importantrecords Insurancepolicies Fixedassetinventory Contracts Operatingsysteminstalldisks Licensingkeys/Passwords Letterhead OfficeSupplies Cash Flashlight Batterypoweredradio Batteries Food&Waterforthoseworking therecovery

ReSupplyEmergencyKits

BusinessInterruption/ResumptionInsurance Coveragetohelpin rebuildingyourcompanyintheeventofabusinessinterruption Added/ExtraExpenseInsurance Insurancetocoverunexpected addedcostsintheeventofaninterruptionorunexpectedevent.

Makecertainyouareinsuredforallpotentialrisks. Knowthedifferenttypesofcoverageandlimits. Considerbusinessinterruptioninsuranceandaddedexpenseinsurance. Keepphotosofyourbuilding,equipmentlistsandpolicyinformation storedinasafeandsecureoffsitelocation. MaintainanuptodateAssetmanagementprogram.

MOSTlossesfollowinghurricanesareduetoflooding. Mostgeneralpoliciesdonotcoverflooding.Ensureyoufully understandyourcoverageandanyexposuretorisk. DontWaituntiltheStormisImminent.DothisToday.

ReviewingYourInsuranceCoverage

 MobileRecovery Deliveredtoaspecificlocation. Idealforsmalltomediumsizedbusiness. Highlevelofflexibility. Costeffectivesolution. HotSiteRecovery Permanent,regional facility.FixedSite. Firstcome,firstserved attimeofdisaster. Susceptibletosamerisks Oversubscription OtherAlternatives Reciprocalagreement Internal CoLocation

ConsideringanAlternateLocation

1. Dotheyhaveaplan? a) Evacuation/Shelterplan b) CriticalDocumentStorage c) EmergencyAlertSystem d) Emergency/GoKit 2. Howcanyourorganizationhelp? a) Workshops b) Checklists c) EmergencyKits d) FamilyInvolvement Days PreparingEmployees

 Ensure Employees knowledge of your plan & their roles. (including new hires) Ensure any Work-From-Home Strategies in place are tested Cross-Train Employees for critical roles Refuel company vehicles prior to the storm making landfall Understand ways to help employees:

Consider car pooling Flex Scheduling Offering onsite day care

PreparingEmployees

Common Failures & Lessons Learned

BobBoyd
President&CEO AgilityRecovery

MistakesmadeduringaCrisis
Power: Generatoronsite LackofMobility? MaintenanceUptoDate? RefuelingCapability/Access Backuptothebackup? AlternateSite: RelianceonHot/ColdSites OverSubscribed TransportationCosts/Difficulties SharedSites InflexibleSolution

BetterOptions:
Haveaccesstomultiple Generatorsthroughout theregion SetupFuelProviders PerformRegular maintenance KnowalocalElectrician HaveoptionsOTHERthan apermanentsite UnderstandEmployee Disruptionifrelocating Knowthefullimplications ofrelocation(lodging, transportation,childcare)

CommonFailures

MistakesmadeduringaCrisis
Communications: RelyonaSingleProvider SingleMobileCarrier SingleEmailServers Nolandlines Unfamiliaritywithtexting WorkfromHomeStrategy: Willitwork? LowProductivity ConnectivityIssues(Power/Internet) Distractions Unable/Unwillingtoreportforduty

BetterOptions:
Haveabackup Communicationsprovider AlertNotificationSystem UsePhoneRedirectionand knowhowitworks HaveabackupVoicemail& EmailNetwork(Gmail) RelocatingEmployees HavingaPlanfordisplacing offamilies Seeklocationsthatoffer familiarsurroundings& lifestyle Restorethenormal routinesooner

CommonFailures

Additional Resources

BobBoyd
President&CEO AgilityRecovery

 DetailedPreparednessandRecoveryChecklists: www.PrepareMyBusiness.org FEMA OfficialHurricaneWebsite http://www.fema.gov/hazard/hurricane/index.shtm Ready.govHurricanePreparednessInformation: http://www.ready.gov/hurricanes

NationalHurricaneCenter TropicalSystemNews& Information: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

AmericanRedCross EmergencyKits,etc. http://www.redcrossstore.org/

Links&Resources

QUESTIONS?
BobBoyd,President&CEO AgilityRecovery bob.boyd@agilityrecovery.com 7049277922

Todayssessionhasbeenrecorded. Linkstothearchivedrecordingwillbeemailed toallregistrantsautomaticallytomorrow. Forcopiesoftheslidespresentedduringtodayssession, pleasevisithttp://agil.me/sbahurricaneprep