Canara Bank, 1Q FY 2014
Canara Bank, 1Q FY 2014
August 6, 2013
Canara Bank
Performance Highlights
Particulars (` cr) NII Pre-prov. profit PAT 1QFY14 1,991 1,898 792 4QFY13 2,091 1,698 725 % chg (qoq) (4.8) 11.8 9.2 1QFY13 1,844 1,394 775 % chg (yoy) 8.0 36.2 2.2
NEUTRAL
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code Banking 10,601 1.1 550/230 103,193 10 18,733 5,542 CNBK.BO CBK@IN
`239 -
Canara Bank reported a moderate operating performance for 1QFY2014; however, asset quality performance exhibited weakness. NII grew at a moderate 8% yoy. Non-interest income grew strongly by 79% yoy, boosted by treasury gains of `444cr as against `99cr in 1QFY2013. Overall, the pre-provisioning profit for the bank grew strongly by 36% yoy. The bank witnessed significant asset quality pain during the quarter, as Gross and Net NPA levels increased sequentially by around 17% each. Consequently, the provisioning expenses more than doubled on a yoy basis and hence, the bottom-line grew by a marginal 2% yoy. Significant asset quality deterioration on back of heavy slippages: During 1QFY2014, the banks advance book increased by 10.8% yoy, while deposits book grew by 14.2% yoy; hence, the credit-to-deposits ratio dipped by 199bp yoy to 65.4%. CASA deposits grew by 13.4% yoy and hence, the calculated CASA ratio declined by 106bp qoq to 23.1%. The NIM for the bank declined by 18bp sequentially to 2.2%, largely on back of a 39bp sequential decline in yield on advances to 10.7%. Non-interest income (excl. treasury) witnessed an increase of 33.8% yoy to `794cr, on back of higher recoveries from written off accounts (at `80cr as compared to `47cr in 1QFY2013) and robust growth in forex income (37.1% yoy to `178cr). Fee income for the bank witnessed a muted growth of 2.4% yoy to `200cr. During 1QFY2014, slippages came in at `2,688cr (annualized slippage rate of 4.4%) much higher compared to `1,086cr in 4QFY2013 (annualized slippage rate of 1.9%). Of the slippages during the quarter, three chunky corporate accounts contributed ~`1,000cr. Recoveries/upgrades came in at `1,359cr, much higher compared to `520cr in 4QFY2013 and were broadly in-line with the Managements guidance. Despite healthy recovery and upgrades performance, heavy slippages resulted in significant deterioration of asset quality, as the sequential increase in absolute Gross and Net NPA levels came in at around 17%. The PCR for the bank declined sequentially by 317bp to 58.2%. Additionally, the bank restructured advances worth `1,683cr during the quarter, thereby taking its outstanding restructured book to `19,884cr. Going forward, the restructuring pipeline for the bank over the next few quarters remains sizeable at ~`5,000cr. Outlook and valuation: We believe that the asset quality pressures for the banking sector are unlikely to abate as quickly as was expected earlier, considering the recent macro developments amidst an overall weak macro environment. Moreover, the banks exposure to stressed sectors/companies is also high. Hence, we recommend a Neutral rating on the stock. Key financials (Standalone)
Y/E March (` cr) NII % chg Net profit % chg NIM (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/ABV (x) RoA (%) RoE (%) FY2012 7,689 (0.1) 3,283 (18.5) 2.2 74.1 3.2 0.5 0.9 17.0 FY2013 7,879 2.5 2,872 (12.5) 2.1 64.8 3.7 0.5 0.7 13.2 FY2014E 8,186 3.9 2,320 (19.2) 2.0 52.4 4.6 0.5 0.5 9.8 FY2015E 8,980 9.7 2,682 15.6 2.0 60.5 4.0 0.4 0.6 10.4
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 67.7 13.3 12.8 6.2
3m (4.8)
1yr 7.6
3yr 3.2
Vaibhav Agrawal
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6808 vaibhav.agrawal@angelbroking.com
Sourabh Taparia
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6872 sourabh.taparia@angelbroking.com
Harshal Patkar
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6847 harshal.patkar@angelbroking.com
1QFY14 9,270 6,450 2,482 338 7,278 1,991 1,238 794 200 444 80 514 3,229 1,331 887 444 1,898 916 417 88 411 982 190 792 19.3
4QFY13 8,465 6,073 2,307 85 6,374 2,091 1,007 755 232 252 133 390 3,097 1,399 888 511 1,698 752 346 84 322 945 220 725 23.3
% chg (qoq) 9.5 6.2 7.6 297.0 14.2 (4.8) 23.0 5.3 (13.8) 76.2 (39.8) 32.0 4.3 (4.9) (0.2) (13.1) 11.8 21.8 20.5 4.8 27.6 3.9 (13.6) 9.2 (392)bp
1QFY13 8,473 6,229 2,040 204 6,629 1,844 693 594 195 99 47 352 2,536 1,142 743 399 1,394 419 477 (205) 147 975 200 775 20.5
% chg (yoy) 9.4 3.5 21.7 65.8 9.8 8.0 78.8 33.8 2.4 349.3 70.9 46.3 27.3 16.5 19.4 11.2 36.2 118.9 (12.6) NA 180.6 0.7 (5.0) 2.2 (116)bp
FY2013 34,078 24,380 9,112 585 26,199 7,879 3,153 2,477 797 676 303 1,377 11,032 5,142 3,254 1,888 5,890 2,218 1,861 (370) 727 3,672 800 2,872 21.8
FY2012 30,851 23,443 7,053 353 23,161 7,689 2,928 2,604 798 324 363 1,443 10,617 4,674 2,973 1,701 5,943 1,860 1,294 154 413 4,083 800 3,283 19.6
% chg (yoy) 10.5 4.0 29.2 65.6 13.1 2.5 7.7 (4.9) (0.1) 108.6 (16.5) (4.6) 3.9 10.0 9.4 11.0 (0.9) 19.2 43.9 NA 76.1 (10.1) (12.5) 219bp
Actual 1,991 1,238 3,229 1,331 1,898 916 982 190 792
Estimates 2,116 914 3,029 1,299 1,730 715 1,015 264 751
Var (%) (5.9) 35.5 6.6 2.5 9.7 28.1 (3.3) (28.0) 5.4
August 6, 2013
1QFY14 249,891 381,972 65.4 14,374 73,938 88,312 23.1 11.4 9.0 7.5 10.7 8.0 8.8 6.9 2.2 41.2 7,329 2.9 6,209 2.5 58.2 4.4 0.4
4QFY13 242,177 355,856 68.1 14,893 71,168 86,061 24.2 12.4 9.8 7.7 11.1 8.1 9.1 7.0 2.4 45.2 6,260 2.6 5,278 2.2 61.4 1.9 0.3
%chg (qoq) 3.2 7.3 (263)bp (3.5) 3.9 2.6 (106)bp (100)bp (74)bp (18)bp (39)bp (13)bp (28)bp (5)bp (18)bp (396)bp 17.1 34bp 17.6 30bp (317)bp 257bp 4bp
1QFY13 225,584 334,619 67.4 11,398 66,504 77,902 23.3 13.2 10.1 7.9 11.1 8.1 9.1 7.1 2.4 45.0 4,498 2.0 3,756 1.7 66.5 2.6 0.5
%chg (yoy) 10.8 14.2 (199)bp 26.1 11.2 13.4 (16)bp (182)bp (103)bp (35)bp (38)bp (10)bp (30)bp (21)bp (19)bp (382)bp 63.0 93bp 65.3 82bp (835)bp 186bp (11)bp
reduced its reliance on bulk deposits significantly during the quarter (share of high costs deposits and CDs as a proportion of deposits reduced to 13% from 20% as of FY2013 end), its cost of deposits came in lower sequentially by 18bp to 7.5%. The Cost of funds for the bank declined by 5bp qoq to 6.9%. Overall, the NIM for the bank declined by 18bp sequentially to 2.2%. The Management targets an NIM of around 2.5-2.6% by year end.
4.9 11.5
7.7
2.7
4.2 8.8
10.8 14.2
2.4
23.3
24.8
25.1
24.2
(1.0)
(7.0) 1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
(0.5)
2.40
2.53
2.36
2.39
23.1
8.80
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
Strong growth in non-interest income (excl. treasury) on back of higher recoveries and robust growth in forex income
During 1QFY2014, Non-interest income (excluding treasury) witnessed an increase of 33.8% yoy to `794cr, on back of higher recoveries from written off accounts and robust growth in forex income. Recoveries from written-off accounts came in at `80cr as compared to `47cr in 1QFY2013, while profit on exchange transactions came in at `178cr, registering a robust growth of 37.1% yoy. Fee income for the bank witnessed a muted growth of 2.4% yoy to `200cr. The bank reported treasury income of `444cr during the quarter compared to `99cr in 1QFY2013. Aided by substantially higher treasury income, the overall non-interest income for the bank witnessed a strong growth of 78.8% yoy to `1,238cr.
August 6, 2013
2.0 1.7
2.6 2.1
2.8 2.4
2.6 2.2
2.6
3.3
2.3
1.9
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
4.4
August 6, 2013
2.9 2.5
3,609
3,655
3,681
3,728
1.3
45.0
50.0
46.5
45.2
25.0 20.0
Investment concerns
Weak liability franchise and asset quality pressures likely to keep NIM under check
The bank has a relatively weak liability profile with a calculated CASA base at 23.1% as of 1QFY2014. Due to low credit-deposit ratio of 65.4% in 1QFY2014 and elevated slippages, margins continued to remain under check at under 2.2%. The banks margins are likely to find some support on account of significant reduction in its high-cost bulk deposits portfolio, which as of 1QFY2014 stands at 13% of aggregate deposits. Also, the bank has embarked on a relatively aggressive network expansion plan. Over the past two years, the bank has added ~500 branches and around 1,250 ATMs. Such a pace of network expansion should augur well, in our view, for strengthening the banks relatively weak liability franchise. Also, the bank plans to take the number of branches from 3,770 now to 5,000 by March 2015 which should give a thrust to its low cost deposits profile.
August 6, 2013
41.2
Earlier estimates FY2014E 18.0 8.0 25.4 2.1 1.7 7.5 7.5 2.0 63.5 18.0 12.0 26.1 2.2 9.6 7.5 7.5 1.7 65.0
Revised estimates 14.0 10.0 24.9 2.0 3.6 7.5 7.5 3.0 57.5 16.0 9.0 26.4 2.0 4.0 7.5 7.5 2.3 60.0
FY2015E Earlier estimates 9,979 3,515 13,495 5,942 7,552 1,756 5,797 1,970 3,826 Revised Var. (%) estimates 8,980 (10.0) 3,397 12,378 5,942 6,435 2,372 4,063 1,381 2,682 (3.4) (8.3) (14.8) 35.1 (29.9) (29.9) (29.9)
Earlier estimates 8,838 3,206 12,045 5,528 6,517 1,923 4,594 1,195 3,400
Revised Var. (%) estimates 8,186 (7.4) 3,268 11,454 5,528 5,927 2,834 3,093 773 2,320 1.9 (4.9) (9.1) 47.4 (32.7) (35.3) (31.8)
Dec-07
Aug-09
Dec-12
Apr-06
Apr-11
Jul-07
Jul-12
Mar-09
Nov-10
May-08
August 6, 2013
May-13
Mar-14
Oct-08
Feb-07
Sep-06
Sep-11
Feb-12
Oct-13
Jan-10
Jun-10
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note:*Target multiples=SOTP Target Price/ABV (including subsidiaries), #Without adjusting for SASF
Company Background
Canara Bank is the largest south India -based PSU bank (overall fifth largest bank in India), with a balance sheet size of around `4.3lakh cr. The bank has a reasonably large pan-India presence with about 45% of its 3,700+ branches outside South India. The bank also has over 3,700 ATMs across the country.
August 6, 2013
August 6, 2013
August 6, 2013
10
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Canara Bank No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
August 6, 2013
11