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The document presents three scenarios that could result without a Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) entering into force, and argues that monitoring the ionosphere with GPS satellites provides the fastest way to verify results of the CTBT. Scenario 1 suggests that without verification, Russia may proliferate nuclear weapons, encouraging proliferation in Japan and North Korea. Scenario 2 argues that proliferation in Asia, such as by China or Iran, increases the likelihood of nuclear war. Scenario 3 claims that current monitoring cannot verify underground Iranian nuclear tests, risking an Israeli strike and potential escalation. The document contends GPS ionospheric monitoring can locate underground test sites and has been confirmed by studies to enable effective CTBT verification.

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84 views5 pages

Berk Aff Wiki

The document presents three scenarios that could result without a Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) entering into force, and argues that monitoring the ionosphere with GPS satellites provides the fastest way to verify results of the CTBT. Scenario 1 suggests that without verification, Russia may proliferate nuclear weapons, encouraging proliferation in Japan and North Korea. Scenario 2 argues that proliferation in Asia, such as by China or Iran, increases the likelihood of nuclear war. Scenario 3 claims that current monitoring cannot verify underground Iranian nuclear tests, risking an Israeli strike and potential escalation. The document contends GPS ionospheric monitoring can locate underground test sites and has been confirmed by studies to enable effective CTBT verification.

Uploaded by

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© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as DOC, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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CONTENTION 1: INHERENCY CTBT Passage is inevitable Indonesian ratification created moment m !

!imball 1"#$ (Daryl, "Indonesian Ratification of the CTBT Provides New Momentum for ntry Into
!orce," Pro"ect for the Com#rehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, www$#ro"ectforthect%t$or&'Indonesian( Ratification(of(the(CTBT(Provides(New(Momentum(for( ntry(Into(!orce)

CTBT %ill &ass' Obama is & s(ing %it( )N s &&ort' *a(l+ Fredrik. ",1- ("UN chief ups pressure on nuclear test ban holdouts." Reuters. Reuters , 2/17/2012. eb. !http"//in.reuters.co#/article/2012/02/17/nuclear$test$ban$ id%N&''(1)0F*20120217+.,-k C rrent CTBT is not verifiable g arantees c(eating Baile. and /c(eber 11 (.athleen /aile0, senior associate at the National %nstitute for
1ublic 1olic0 (N%11,, and 2ho#as 3cheber, 4ice 1resident of the N%11, 52he 6o#prehensi7e 2est /an 2reat0" 8n 8ssess#ent of the /enefits, 6osts, and Risks9, National %nstitute for 1ublic 1olic0, :/11/11, http"//;;;.nipp.or</62/2=20:.11.11=20electronic=207ersion.pdf,

0P/ detection monitors are not &rogramed to monitor t(e ionos&(ere' Blac(man, %sadora. 2011 ("4ertic." Can GPS navigate us to covert underground nuclear test sites?. 4ertic, 10/*/2011. eb. !http"//;;;.7ertic.or</pa<es/posts/can$<ps$na7i<ate$us$to$co7ert$under<round$ nuclear$test$sites$1(7.php+.,-k

T( s t(e &lan: T(e )nited /ates federal government s(o ld se its global &ositioning satellites to monitor t(e ionos&(ere for dist rbances in electron densit. ca sed b. n clear tests' CONTENTION ": 1ERI2IC3TION

0P/ allo%s for effective verification addresses )/ concerns Par4 et al 11(1ark, >ih0e, &orota )re-ner, and Ralph Frese. 2011,("8 ne; ;a0 to detect secret nuclear tests" )13." Bulletin of Atomic Scientists. /ulletin of 8to#ic 3cientists, (/1(/2011. eb. !http"//;;;.thebulletin.or</;eb$edition/op$eds/ne;$;a0$to$detect$secret$nuclear$tests$<ps+.,-k

1erification directl. decreases c(eating 5al4er 11 (>ohn, 1h& and research fello; on ar#s control, 52he 62/2" 4erification and
&eterrence9 10/1*/12, http"//;;;.7ertic.or</#edia/assets/1ublications/4/1*.pdf,

T5O /CEN3RIO/: /CEN3RIO 1: R)//I3 6O*ERNI73TION 3 non#verifiable CTBT ca ses R ssian vertical &roliferation leads to 8a&anese &rolif 6edalia+ 9: (>onathan, 3pecialist in National &efense Forei<n 8ffairs, &efense, and 2rade
&i7ision at the 6on<ressional Research 3er7ice, 56o#prehensi7e Nuclear$2est$/an 2reat0" %ssues and 8r<u#ents,9 ?arch 12,

83P3NE/E PRO;I2 ;E3*/ TO RENE5E* CHINE/E N3TION3;I/6+ EN* O2 IT/ NO#2IR/T#)/E PO;ICY 3N* N)C;E3R 53R 5ITH THE )'/' NTI+ 9$ (10/1(/0*, Nuclear 2hreat %nitiati7e, 2hreat Reduction 8<enc0 created b0 6NN founder 2ed 2urner and for#er
U.3. 3enator 3a# Nunn ;ith securit0 representati7es fro# 10 different nations,5Nuclear 6onflict in the 21st 6entur0" Re7ie;in< the 6hinese Nuclear 2hreat,9 http"//;;;.nti.or</e@research/e:@(0.ht#l,

)/#C(ina %ar %ill go n clear and destro. t(e &lanet

/traits Times "! A5Re<ional Fallout" No one <ains in ;ar o7er 2ai;an,9 >un 2BC
3sian &roliferation is t(e most li4el. scenario for n clear %ar' Eac( instance is a ni< e ris4' Cirincione+ "! D &irector of the Non$1roliferation 1ro-ect at the 6arne<ie 'ndo;#ent for %nternational 1eace (3prin<
2000, >oseph, Forei<n 1olic0, 52he 8sian Nuclear Reaction 6hain9, >3tor,

Inde&endentl.+ R ssian lo%#.ield %ea&ons ca se first stri4e CI3 "! (6entral %ntelli<ence 8<enc0, Effice of 2ransnational %ssues, 5'7idence of Russian
&e7elop#ent of Ne; 3ub$.iloton Nuclear arheads9, (/:0/2000, http"//;;;.foia.cia.<o7/docs/&E6@00012*0F*:/&E6@00012*0F*:.pdf,

R ssian la nc( ens res &lanetar. e=tinction Caldicott 9"+ Founder of 1h0sicians for 3ocial Responsibilit0 AGelen, The new nuclear danger, p. 7$12C

/CEN3RIO ": IR3NI3N PRO;I2 C rrent I6/ cannot verif. Iranian ndergro nd n clear tests 6edalia+ 9: (>onathan, 3pecialist in National &efense Forei<n 8ffairs, &efense, and 2rade
&i7ision at the 6on<ressional Research 3er7ice, 56o#prehensi7e Nuclear$2est$/an 2reat0" %ssues and 8r<u#ents,9 ?arch 12,

Iranian &roliferation ens res Israeli stri4e' Russell 9. A>a#es 8., #ana<in< editor of 3trate<ic %nsi<hts, the Huarterl0 e-ournal published b0 the 6enter for
6onte#porar0 6onflict at the Na7al 1ost<raduate 3chool, 3prin< http"//;;;.ifri.or</files/3ecurite@defense/112*@Russell@200I.pdfC

E>TINCTION'

Hirsch 5. A>or<e, 1h0sics 1rofessor at U6 3an &ie<o,


http"//;;;.anti;ar.co#/ori</hirsch.phpJarticleidK(0(IC

56an 8 Nuclear 3trike on %ran /e 87erted9, 8nti$ ar, 11$21,

CONTENTION ?: /O;1ENCY T(e &lan %o ld be t(e fastest %a. to verif. t(e res lts of t(e I6/ Blac(man, %sadora. 2011 ("4ertic." Can GPS navigate us to covert underground nuclear test sites?. 4ertic, 10/*/2011. eb. !http"//;;;.7ertic.or</pa<es/posts/can$<ps$na7i<ate$us$to$co7ert$under<round$ nuclear$test$sites$1(7.php+.,-k

Ionos&(eric monitoring can be sed to locate ndergro nd n clear test sites Blac(man, %sadora. 2011 ("4ertic." Can GPS navigate us to covert underground nuclear test sites?. 4ertic, 10/*/2011. eb. !http"//;;;.7ertic.or</pa<es/posts/can$<ps$na7i<ate$us$to$co7ert$under<round$ nuclear$test$sites$1(7.php+.,-k /t dies confirm Blac(man, %sadora. 2011 ("4ertic." Can GPS navigate us to covert underground nuclear test sites?. 4ertic, 10/*/2011. eb. !http"//;;;.7ertic.or</pa<es/posts/can$<ps$na7i<ate$us$to$co7ert$under<round$ nuclear$test$sites$1(7.php+.,-k

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