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Sample Windfarm Model: Assumptions

This document provides information for modeling a sample windfarm project in Ireland. It includes assumptions about the site location, turbine type and capacity, project costs, financing structure, and operating costs and revenues over a 16 year period. The total installed capacity would be 1.5 MW from 1 turbine. Key financing includes 81.37% senior debt, 7.71% mezzanine debt, and 10.92% equity. Annual operating costs are estimated at €44,604. Cash flows are modeled annually over the project lifetime.

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
53 views19 pages

Sample Windfarm Model: Assumptions

This document provides information for modeling a sample windfarm project in Ireland. It includes assumptions about the site location, turbine type and capacity, project costs, financing structure, and operating costs and revenues over a 16 year period. The total installed capacity would be 1.5 MW from 1 turbine. Key financing includes 81.37% senior debt, 7.71% mezzanine debt, and 10.92% equity. Annual operating costs are estimated at €44,604. Cash flows are modeled annually over the project lifetime.

Uploaded by

minati_parida02
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLS, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Sample Windfarm Model

Assumptions
Site Location

Ireland

Turbine type
Rated MW per turbine
Number of expected wind turbines
Total installed capacity (MW)
Gross Production Loss Factor
Gross Energy Yield
Modelling uncertainties
Wake effect
Technical Availability
Electrical losses
Total Loss Factors
Production Achievement (kWh)
Net equivalent hours (h/a)

e.g. GE 1.5sl
1,500
1
1.5
50%
6,570,000
10%
4.2%
5.0%
3.0%
22.2%
5,111,460
3,408

Reporting Currency
Power Purchase Agreement Price
Spill Price
Partial Price Inflation
Full Price Inflation

Y
N

5.216
0.00
2.50%
2.50%

Cost Inflation

Pre-Operating Project Costs


Turbines & turbine transformer
Foundation, infrastructure and fa
Internal cables and grid connecti
Permits/ Legal and Financing

Total Project Cost


Depreciation Years
0.00% Equity Repurchase
Indexation Full
Indexation Partial
Senior Debt
Mezzanine Debt
Community Equity
Non Community Equity
Total Equity
BES
BES Uplift Percentage
BES Payback Period (Years)
Land Rent
Net Energy Yield
Discount Factor

2.50%

Capital cost of turbines & transformers per rated MW


Average ADSCR

1,150,000
1.49%

Taxation Capital Allowance Rate

Base Cost Of Funds


Bank Margin
Total Cost Of Funds
Term Of Loan

12.50%

Annual Operating Costs


Turbine Maintenance
Spare parts
Machine break insurance
Profit loss insurance
Management/Administration
ESB/Energy supply
Total operating costs

Front Loading
Price
Full Indexation
Cost Inflation

1.00
5.216
1.00
1.00

1.00
5.216
1.025
1.025

1.00
5.216
1.051
1.051

1.00
5.216
1.077
1.077

Cash Flow
Total Production

1
5,111,460

2
5,111,460

3
5,111,460

4
5,111,460

Production Units (Full Indexation)

5,111,460

5.216
266,614

5,111,460

5.346
273,279

5,111,460

5.480
280,111

5,111,460

5.617
287,114

Total Revenues

266,614

273,279

280,111

287,114

Annual Operating Costs


Land Rent
Total Annual Operating Costs
Taxation
Cash Available To Service Debt and BES
Less:
Interest
Capital
BES Repayment
Surplus Operating Project Cashflow
Cash Sweep
Free Cashflow
Cumulative Free Cashflow
Debt Service Cover Ratio

12,904
7,998
20,902
245,711

13,226
8,198
21,425
3,393
248,461

46,862
8,403
55,265
18,123
206,723

48,034
8,613
56,647
19,663
210,804

92,307
118,568
34,836

86,241
124,634
37,586 -

79,865
131,010
4,152 -

73,162
137,713
71

37,586 72,423
1.18

4,152 68,271
0.98

Price Per Unit


Generated Revenue

34,836
34,836
1.17

71
68,200
1.00

Debt Schedule
Opening Debt
Drawdowns
Add Interest
Annuity Repayments
Cash Sweep
Closing Debt
Closing Net Debt

Taxation Calculation
Profit before tax and depreciation
Losses forward
Capital Allowances
Losses available for c/fwd
Taxation @

Profit and Loss Account


Revenues
Operating Costs
Interest

1,900,000

1,781,432

1,656,798

1,525,788

92,307
210,875

86,241
210,875

79,865
210,875

73,162
210,875

1,781,432

1,656,798

1,525,788

1,388,075

1,746,596

1,619,212

1,529,940

1,388,146

153,404
12.5%

291,875
138,471
-

266,614
20,902
92,307

165,613
138,471
27,142
3,393

273,279
21,425
86,241

144,981
144,981
18,123

280,111
55,265
79,865

157,305
157,305
19,663

287,114
56,647
73,162

Depreciation
Taxation
Retained Profits
Cumulative Retained Profits

116,750
36,654
36,654

3,393
162,220
198,874

18,123
126,858
325,733

19,663
137,642
463,375

2,218,250
34,836
2,253,086
1,781,432

2,101,500
72,423
2,173,923
1,656,798

1,984,750
68,271
2,053,021
1,525,788

1,868,000
68,200
1,936,200
1,388,075

Net Total Assets

471,654

517,124

527,233

548,125

Financed By
Share Capital
Profit and Loss

497,435
36,654

497,435
198,874

497,435
325,733

497,435
463,375

534,089

696,309

823,168

960,810

Balance Sheet
Net Book Value Of Assets
Cash
Net Assets
Loans

perating Project Costs


es & turbine transformer
ation, infrastructure and farm transfomer
al cables and grid connection
ts/ Legal and Financing

1,725,000
250,000
160,000
200,000
610,000

Project Cost

2,335,000

ciation Years
Repurchase

20

81.37%
0.00%
7.71%
0.00%
7.71%
13.59%
103%
5%

ommunity Equity

Uplift Percentage
Payback Period (Years)

Mezzanine Debt
3.50%
4%
7.50%
5

Cost Of Funds

Cost Of Funds

al Operating Costs
e Maintenance

0%
0%
1,900,000
0
180,000
0
180,000
317,435
Difference
333,307
6
3%
35.00%
7.50%
Senior Debt
3.50%
1.50%
5.00%
12

11,000
1.20%
0.30%
0.60%
1.50%
600

11,000
20,700
6,405
1,600
3,999
900
44,604

1.00
5.216
1.104
1.104

1.00
5.216
1.131
1.131

1.00
5.216
1.160
1.160

1.00
5.216
1.189
1.189

1.00
5.216
1.218
1.218

1.00
5.216
1.249
1.249

5
5,111,460

6
5,111,460

7
5,111,460

8
5,111,460

9
5,111,460

10
5,111,460

ne break insurance
oss insurance
gement/Administration
Energy supply
operating costs

5,111,460

5.757
294,292

5,111,460

5.901
301,649

5,111,460

6.049
309,190

5,111,460

6.200
316,920

5,111,460

6.355
324,843

5,111,460

6.514
332,964

294,292

301,649

309,190

316,920

324,843

332,964

49,234
8,829
58,063
21,264
214,965

50,465
9,049
59,515
20,944
221,190

51,727
9,276
61,003
24,658
223,530

53,020
9,508
62,528
26,456
227,936

54,346
9,745
64,091
28,327
232,426

55,704
9,989
65,693
30,272
236,999

66,116
144,759
4,090 -

74,582
152,165
317,435
322,992

50,925
159,950
12,655

42,742
168,133
17,061

34,140
176,735
21,551

25,098
185,777
26,124

322,992
250,702 0.98

12,655
238,047 1.06

17,061
220,986 1.08

21,551
199,436 1.10

26,124
173,311
1.12

4,090 72,289 1.02

1,388,075

1,243,316

1,091,151

931,201

763,068

586,333

66,116
210,875

58,710
210,875

50,925
210,875

42,742
210,875

34,140
210,875

25,098
210,875

1,243,316

1,091,151

931,201

763,068

586,333

400,555

1,239,227

1,414,143

918,546

746,007

564,782

374,431

170,112
170,112
21,264

294,292
58,063
66,116

167,552
167,552
20,944

301,649
59,515
74,582

197,263
197,263
24,658

309,190
61,003
50,925

211,651
211,651
26,456

316,920
62,528
42,742

226,612
226,612
28,327

324,843
64,091
34,140

10

242,173
242,173
30,272

10

332,964
65,693
25,098

21,264
148,848
612,223

20,944
146,608
758,832

24,658
172,605
931,436

26,456
185,194
1,116,631

28,327
198,286
1,314,917

30,272
211,902
1,526,818

1,751,250
72,289 1,823,539
1,243,316

1,634,500
250,702 1,383,798
1,091,151

1,517,750
238,047 1,279,703
931,201

1,401,000
220,986 1,180,014
763,068

1,284,250
199,436 1,084,814
586,333

10

1,167,500
173,311
994,189
400,555

580,223

292,647

348,501

416,946

498,482

593,633

497,435
612,223

180,000
758,832

180,000
931,436

180,000
1,116,631

180,000
1,314,917

180,000
1,526,818

1,109,658

938,832

1,111,436

1,296,631

1,494,917

1,706,818

1.00
5.216
1.280
1.280

1.00
5.216
1.312
1.312

1.00
5.216
1.345
1.345

1.00
5.216
1.379
1.379

1.00
5.216
1.413
1.413

1.00
5.216
1.448
1.448

11
5,111,460

12
5,111,460

13
5,111,460

14
5,111,460

15
5,111,460

16
5,111,460

5,111,460

6.677
341,288

5,111,460

6.844
349,820

5,111,460

7.015
358,566

5,111,460

7.190
367,530

5,111,460

7.370
376,718

5,111,460

7.554
386,136

341,288

349,820

358,566

367,530

376,718

386,136

57,097
10,239
67,335
32,295
241,658

58,524
10,495
69,019
34,400
246,402

59,987
10,757
70,744
35,978
251,844

61,487
11,026
72,513
36,877
258,140

63,024
11,302
74,326
37,799
264,594

64,600
11,584
76,184
38,744
271,208

15,593
195,282
30,783

5,602
205,273
35,527

251,844

258,140

264,594

271,208

30,783
142,529 1.15

35,527
107,002
1.17

251,844
144,842
0.00

258,140
402,982
0.00

264,594
667,575
0.00

271,208
938,784
0.00

400,555

205,273 -

15,593
210,875

5,602
210,875

0 -

0 -

0 -

0
-

205,273 -

0 -

0 -

0 -

0 -

174,490 -

35,527 -

251,844 -

258,140 -

264,594 -

271,208

11

258,360
258,360
32,295

11

341,288
67,335
15,593

12

275,200
275,200
34,400

12

349,820
69,019
5,602

13

287,822
287,822
35,978

13

358,566
70,744
-

14

295,017
295,017
36,877

14

367,530
72,513
-

15

302,393
302,393
37,799

15

376,718
74,326
-

16

309,952
309,952
38,744

16

386,136
76,184
-

32,295
226,065
1,752,883

11

1,050,750
142,529 908,221
205,273 -

34,400
240,800
1,993,683

35,978
251,844
2,245,527

36,877
258,140
2,503,667

37,799
264,594
2,768,260

38,744
271,208
3,039,469

12

934,000
107,002
826,998
0 -

13

817,250
144,842
962,092
0 -

14

700,500
402,982
1,103,482
0 -

15

583,750
667,575
1,251,325
0 -

16

467,000
938,784
1,405,784
0

702,948

826,998

962,092

1,103,482

1,251,325

1,405,784

180,000
1,752,883

180,000
1,993,683

180,000
2,245,527

180,000
2,503,667

180,000
2,768,260

180,000
3,039,469

1,932,883

2,173,683

2,425,527

2,683,667

2,948,260

3,219,469

1.00
5.216
1.485
1.485

1.00
5.216
1.522
1.522

1.00
5.216
1.560
1.560

1.00
5.216
1.599
1.599

17
5,111,460

18
5,111,460

19
5,111,460

20
5,111,460

5,111,460

7.743
395,790

5,111,460

7.937
405,684

5,111,460

8.135
415,826

5,111,460

8.339
426,222

395,790

405,684

415,826

426,222

66,215
11,874
78,088
39,713
277,989

67,870
12,171
80,041
40,705
284,938

69,567
12,475
82,042
41,723
292,062

71,306
12,787
84,093
42,766
299,363

277,989

284,938

292,062

299,363

277,989
1,216,772
0.00

284,938
1,501,711
0.00

292,062
1,793,772
0.00

299,363
2,093,135
0.00

0 -

0 -

0 -

0
-

0 -

0 -

0 -

277,989 -

284,938 -

292,062 -

299,363

17

317,701
317,701
39,713

17

395,790
78,088
-

18

325,644
325,644
40,705

18

405,684
80,041
-

19

333,785
333,785
41,723

19

415,826
82,042
-

20

342,129
342,129
42,766

20

426,222
84,093
-

39,713
277,989
3,317,457

40,705
284,938
3,602,396

41,723
292,062
3,894,457

42,766
299,363
4,193,820

17

350,250
1,216,772
1,567,022
0 -

18

233,500
1,501,711
1,735,211
0 -

19

116,750
1,793,772
1,910,522
0 -

2,093,135
2,093,135
0

1,567,022

1,735,211

1,910,522

2,093,135

180,000
3,317,457

180,000
3,602,396

180,000
3,894,457

180,000
4,193,820

3,497,457

3,782,396

4,074,457

4,373,820

20

Senior Debt
Repayment Schedule

Total Debt
Rate of interest

1,900,000
5.00%

No. of years

Year
1

0
0
Month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

Total Interest for the year


Total Repayment
Total Capital repayment

12

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

(7,917)
(7,876)
(7,836)
(7,795)
(7,755)
(7,714)
(7,673)
(7,631)
(7,590)
(7,548)
(7,507)
(7,465)

(7,423)
(7,380)
(7,338)
(7,295)
(7,252)
(7,209)
(7,166)
(7,123)
(7,079)
(7,036)
(6,992)
(6,948)

(6,903)
(6,859)
(6,814)
(6,769)
(6,724)
(6,679)
(6,634)
(6,588)
(6,542)
(6,496)
(6,450)
(6,404)

(6,357)
(6,311)
(6,264)
(6,217)
(6,169)
(6,122)
(6,074)
(6,026)
(5,978)
(5,930)
(5,881)
(5,833)

(5,784)
(5,735)
(5,685)
(5,636)
(5,586)
(5,536)
(5,486)
(5,435)
(5,385)
(5,334)
(5,283)
(5,232)

(5,180)
(5,129)
(5,077)
(5,025)
(4,973)
(4,920)
(4,867)
(4,814)
(4,761)
(4,708)
(4,654)
(4,601)

(4,546)
(4,492)
(4,438)
(4,383)
(4,328)
(4,273)
(4,217)
(4,162)
(4,106)
(4,050)
(3,993)
(3,937)

(3,880)
(3,823)
(3,766)
(3,708)
(3,650)
(3,592)
(3,534)
(3,476)
(3,417)
(3,358)
(3,299)
(3,239)

(3,179)
(3,119)
(3,059)
(2,999)
(2,938)
(2,877)
(2,816)
(2,754)
(2,693)
(2,631)
(2,568)
(2,506)

(2,443)
(2,380)
(2,317)
(2,253)
(2,189)
(2,125)
(2,061)
(1,996)
(1,931)
(1,866)
(1,801)
(1,735)

(1,669)
(1,603)
(1,536)
(1,469)
(1,402)
(1,335)
(1,267)
(1,199)
(1,131)
(1,063)
(994)
(925)

(855)
(786)
(716)
(645)
(575)
(504)
(433)
(362)
(290)
(218)
(146)
(73)

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

92,307

86,241

79,865

73,162

66,116

58,710

50,925

42,742

34,140

25,098

15,593

5,602

210,875

210,875

210,875

210,875
118,568

210,875
124,634

(17,573)

Total repayments

Monthly repayments

(2,530,500)

Capital drawn down

1,900,000

Total interest

(630,500)

210,875
131,010

210,875
137,713

210,875
144,759

210,875
152,165

210,875
159,950

210,875
168,133

210,875
176,735

185,777 ( 195,282 ( 205,273

0
-

0
-

0
-

0
-

0
-

0
-

0
-

0
-

Mezzanine Debt
Repayment Schedule

Total Debt
Rate of interest

0
7.50%

No. of years

Year
1

0
0

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Total Interest for the year

Total Repayment

Month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

Total Capital repayment

Monthly repayments

Total repayments

Capital drawn down

Total interest

Taxation Computation
Capital allowances term

Capital Allowances
Cumulative Capital Allowances

1
291,875
291,875

Profit before tax


Losses forward
Capital Allowances
Profit / Loss for period
Tax @ 12.5.%

153,404
-

291,875
138,471
0

2
291,875

3
291,875

4
291,875

5
291,875

6
291,875

7
291,875

8
291,875

9
291,875

10
291,875

11
291,875

12
291,875

13
291,875

14
291,875

15
291,875

16
291,875

17
291,875

18
291,875

19
291,875

20
291,875

165,613
138,471
27,142
3393

144,981
144,981
18123

157,305
157,305
19663

170,112
170,112
21264

167,552
167,552
20944

197,263
197,263
24658

211,651
211,651
26456

226,612
226,612
28327

242,173
242,173
30272

258,360
258,360
32295

275,200
275,200
34400

287,822
287,822
35978

295,017
295,017
36877

302,393
302,393
37799

309,952
309,952
38744

317,701
317,701
39713

325,644
325,644
40705

333,785
333,785
41723

342,129
342,129
42766

AER VI
Summary Targets and Prices
Category

Limits
MW

Price Caps
c./KWh

5.216

Pricing Terms

Onshore Wind 5MW+

400

1. All terms fully indexed to CPI

Onshore Wind < 5MW

85

5.742

2. Can opt for price +35% in ist half of term and-35% thereafter

Offshore Wind

50

8.400

3. For small scale onshore wind,if linked to an AER based large


scale onshore wind project, the large scale price cap applies

Hydro

7.018

Biomass

6.412

Biomass AD

7.000

Biomass CHP

28

7.000

4. Offshore Wind Price is indicative only

f linked to an AER based large

BES Funding Schedule

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

BES Payaback including coupon uplift

333,307

Uplift On BES Repurchase

15,872

Cumulative Equity Repurchase

317,435

317,435

317,435

317,435

317,435

317,435

317,435

317,435

317,435

317,435

317,435

317,435

317,435

317,435

317,435

Anticipated Return On Investment

0
Surplus Operating Project Cashflow
Cumulative Free Cashflow

Surplus Operating Project Cashflow


Available to Community Equity Holders
Community Cumulative Free Cashflow

100.00%

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

-2,335,000

34,836
34,836

37,586 72,423

4,152 68,271

71
68,200

4,090 72,289 -

322,992
250,702 -

12,655
238,047 -

17,061
220,986 -

21,551
199,436 -

26,124
173,311 -

30,783
142,529 -

35,527
107,002

251,844
144,842

258,140
402,982

264,594
667,575

271,208
938,784

277,989
1,216,772

284,938
1,501,711

292,062
1,793,772

299,363
2,093,135

-180,000

34,836
34,836

37,586 72,423

4,152 68,271

71
68,200

4,090 72,289 -

322,992
250,702 -

12,655
238,047 -

17,061
220,986 -

21,551
199,436 -

26,124
173,311 -

30,783
142,529 -

35,527
107,002

251,844
144,842

258,140
402,982

264,594
667,575

271,208
938,784

277,989
1,216,772

284,938
1,501,711

292,062
1,793,772

299,363
2,093,135

Community Equity Investors Rate Of Return

Surplus Operating Project Cashflow


Available to Non-Community Equity Holders
Non-Community Equity Investors Rate Of Return

17

18

19

20

15%

0.00%

#NUM!

Surplus Operating Project Cashflow

-2,335,000

Project Internal Rate Of Return (IRR)

8%

245,711

248,461

206,723

210,804

214,965

221,190

223,530

227,936

232,426

236,999

241,658

246,402

251,844

258,140

264,594

271,208

277,989

284,938

292,062

299,363

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