Sample Exam 2 Probability and Counting Methods SOLUTIONS FVCC Math 117 Probability and Linear Math Don

n Hickethier Directions: Place the solution to each of the following exercises on your own paper. No more than two exercises on one side of a sheet of paper. For full credit all work must be shown. Exercise 1. (5 points) Of the eighth graders at Paxton School, 8 played basketball, 9 played volleyball, 10 played soccer, 1 played basketball and soccer only, 2 played volleyball and soccer only, 1 played basketball and volleyball only, and 2 played volleyball, basketball and soccer. How many played one or more of the three sports? Solution : Let B = the event an eighth grader plays basketball, V = the event an eighth grader plays volleyball and S = the event an eighth grader plays soccer. Given n(B ) = 8, n(V ) = 9, n(S ) = 10. Use a venn diagram to nd out how many students played basketball, volleyball and soccer only.
U B V 1 1 2

2 S

Thus n(B only) = 8 4 = 4, n(V only) = 9 5 = 4 and n(S only) = 10 5 = 5. So the totaly number of eighth graders playing at least one sport is 4 + 4 + 5 + 1 + 1 + 2 + 2 = 19 Exercise 1

Exercise 2. (4 points each) The probability of a drought during the growing season = 0.20; the probability of a severe cold spell during the growing season = 0.15; the probability of both = 0.10. (a) Find the probability of a drought or a cold spell. Solution : Let D = the event of a drought and C be the event of a cold spell. Given P (D) = 0.2, P (C ) = 0.15 and P (D C ) = 0.1. Need to nd P (D C ). Using the Union Rule, P (D C ) = P (D) + P (C ) P (D C ), yields P (D C ) = .2 + .15 .1 = 0.25 Exercise 2 (b) Find the probability of neither a drought nor a cold spell. Solution : The probability of neither a drought nor a cold spell is P ((D C ) ) = 1 P (D C ) = 1 .25 = .75 Exercise 2 (c) Find the probability that there is not a drought. Solution : The probability there is not a drought is P (D ) = 1 P (D) = 1 .2 = .8 Exercise 2 Exercise 3. (5 points) A marble is selected at random from a jar containing 6 red marbles, 4 yellow marbles, and 2 green marbles. What is the probability that the marble is red? Express your answer as a reduced fraction. Solution : There are 6 red marbles out of 12 total marbles. Thus the probability of a red is P (red) = 6/12 = 1/2. Exercise 3 Exercise 4. (4 points each) A pair of dice is rolled. (a) What is the probability of getting a sum greater than 11? Express your answer as a reduced fraction. Solution : With two dice 12 is the only sum greater than 11. There is only one way to roll a 12 with two dice, 6 + 6. Thus the probability of getting a sum greater than 11 is 1/36. Exercise 4 (b) What is the probability of getting a sum less than 4? Express your answer as a reduced fraction. Solution : With two dice a sum less than 4 would be 2 or 3. A 2 is formed only by 1 pip on each die. A 3 is formed by either 1+2 or 2+1. There are 3 ways to get a sum less than 4. Thus the probability is 3/36=1/12. Exercise 4

Exercise 5. (4 points each) If the odds in favor of Chris winning the election are 9:4. (a) What is the probability that Chris will win the election? Solution : Given that the odds of winning are 9:4, the probability of winning is 9/13. Exercise 5 (b) What is the probability that Chris will not win the election? Solution : The probability of not winning is 4/13. Exercise 5

Exercise 6. (5 points) Among the new cases of the AIDS virus in the US during 1998, 5401 were females, 5193 were intravenous drug users and 1542 were both. The total number of new cases that year was 23,824. Are the events female and intravenous drug use independent events? Explain your answer. Solution : Let F represent a new AIDS victim who is female and D a new AIDS victim that is an intravenous drug user. The product rule of probability states P (F D) = P (F ) P (D|F ). To show linear independence one needs to show P (F D) = P (F ) P (D). 1542 .0647 P (F D) = 23, 824 5193 5401 .0494 P (F ) P (D) = 23, 824 23, 824 Since P (F D) = P (F ) P (D) the events are not independent. Exercise 6 Exercise 7. (10 points) A city consists of 4 precincts and a person is randomly chosen from the citys population. Precinct Proportion of Population Proportion of Precinct in the Precinct Robbed in the past year 1 0.20 0.01 2 0.10 0.02 3 0.40 0.05 4 0.30 0.04 Find the probability this person lives in precinct 3, given that he/she was a larceny victim last year. Round your answer to the nearest thousandth. Solution : Let R be the event that a person was robbed. Use a probability tree to help organize the information.
[R [R [R lR [[[[[[[[ lc ccccccc [[[[[[[[ RRR cccccccc llllll c c c [[[[[[[[ RRR c c c c c c l c c [[[[[[[[ c R l c RR [[ cccccccc lll 1 2 3 4 yEEE yEEE yEEE yEEE y y y y E E E EE y y y y EE EE EE EE yy yy yy yy E E E y y y y E E E E yy yy yy yy

P (1 R)

P (2 R)

P (3 R)

P (4 R)

Use the tree to nd the all of the probabilities that include larceny. P (1 R) = 0.2 0.01 = .002 P (2 R) = 0.1 0.02 = .002 P (3 R) = 0.4 0.05 = .02 P (4 R) = 0.3 0.04 = .012 Use the General Bayes Theorem to get P (3|R) = P (3 R) .02 = .556 P (R) .002 + .002 + .02 + .012

There is a 55.5% chance that a person that was robbed last year was from precinct 3. Exercise 7 Exercise 8. (5 points) In California license plates used to have one letter followed by three digits followed by three letters. How many dierent license plates were possible? Solution : Use the multiplication principle to calculate the number of license plates. 10 10 10 26 26 26 = 17, 576, 000 There are 17,576,000 dierent possible license plates. Exercise 8

Exercise 9. (5 points) A health inspector must visit 3 of 10 restaurants on Monday. In how many ways can she pick a rst, second and third restaurant to visit? Solution : There 10 P3 = 10 9 8 = 720 ways to pick 3 out of 10 restaurants. Exercise 9 Exercise 10. (5 points) From 7 male and 9 female sales representatives for an insurance company, a team of 4 men and 3 women will be selected to attend a national conference on insurance fraud. In how many ways can the team of 7 be selected? Solution : Since the order in which the people are chosen does not matter, combinations will be used. There are 7 C4 ways to choose the males and 9 C3 ways to choose the females. Using the multiplication principle the total number of ways the team can be selected is (7 C4 )(9 C3 ) = (35)(84) = 2940 Exercise 10 Exercise 11. (7 points) Suppose that a 13 card bridge hand is drawn from an ordinary deck of 52 cards. How many dierent hands will have exactly 6 face cards? Solution : The total number of ways to choose 13 cards out of a standard deck is 52 C13 . To have exactly 6 face cards there must also be 7 non-face cards. In a standard deck there are 12 face cards and 40 non-face cards. There are 12 C6 40 C7 ways to get the 6 face cards. Thus the probability of exactly 6 face cards is (12 C6 )(40 C7 ) 0.027128 52 C13

Exercise 11 Exercise 12. (5 points each) A box contains 6 letters, shown as CARTED. (a) What is the probability of the outcome CARE in that order if 4 letters are drawn one by one with replacement? Solution : Since each of the letters in the work CARTED are distinct the probability of choosing any one letter is 1/6. The probability of choosing the letters with replacement and get CARE is 1 1 1 1 1 = 6 6 6 6 1296 Exercise 12 (b) What is the probability of the outcome CARE in that order if 4 letters are drawn one by one without replacement? Solution : To get the same results without replacement there is one less letter to choose from each time. Thus the probability is 1 1 1 1 1 = 6 5 4 3 360 Exercise 12 Exercise 13. (5 points) On a 3-question true/false test in which all answers are guessed, nd the probability of getting exactly 2 answers correct. Solution : Since there are only two possible outcomes, the probability of getting a correct on any one question is 1/2. This is a binomial probability with the probability of missing any one question is 1-1/2=1/2. Now with 3 questions the probability of getting exactly two correct is 2 1 3 1 3 = 2 2 8 2 Exercise 13 Exercise 14. (5 points each) Suppose 4.2% of males are colorblind. In a randomly chosen group of 70 males, (a) nd the probability that 4 are colorblind. Round your answer to the nearest thousandth. Solution : If the probability of a male being colorblind is 0.042, the probability of of a male not being colorblind is 1 0.042 = 0.958. If 70 people are chosen at random, the probability that exactly 4 are colorblind is 70 (0.043)4 (0.958)66 0.168 4 There is about at 16.8% chance that exactly 4 of the men are color blind. Exercise 14

(b) nd the probability that at least 1 is colorblind. Round your answer to the nearest thousandth. Solution : At least 1 on of the men is colorblind means 1 or more are color blind. Use the complement rule to compute this probability. P (at least 1 colorblind) = 1 P (none are colorblind). So the probability is 1 70 (0.043)0 (0.958)70 0.950 0

Thus there is a 95% chance that at least one of the seventy men is colorblind. Exercise 14

Exam #2 Formula Sheet Probability P (E ) = n(E ) n(S ) P (E F ) = P (E ) + P (F ) P (E F ) P (E |F ) = P (E F ) , where P (F ) = 0. P (F )

Union Rule of Probability Conditional Probability

Product Rule of Probability P (E F ) = P (F ) P (E |F ) or P (E F ) = P (F ) P (F |E ) P (F ) P (E |F ) P (F ) P (E |F ) + P (F ) P (E |F )

Bayes Theorem (Special Case) Bayes Theorem (General Case) P (Fi |E ) =

P (F |E ) =

P (Fi ) P (E |Fi ) P (F1 ) P (E |F1 ) + P (F2 ) P (E |F2 ) + + P (Fn ) P (E |Fn )

Factorial

n! = n(n 1)(n 2) (3)(2)(1) P (n, r) = n! (n r)! n! n 1 !n 2 ! n r ! n! (n r)!r! n px (1 p)nx . x

Permutation

Distinguishable Permutations Combination

n r

Binomial Probability

P (x) =