A Darwin's Look into The Next Million Years

The Next Million Years Part 1 Brent Jessop - Knowledge Driven Revolution.com March 3, 2008

Charles Galton Darwin's 1952 boo The Next Million Years !1" attem#ts to give a general outline o$ the %$uture histor&% o$ man ind b& using the %law o$ human nature%. C.G. Darwin '1(()-19*2+ was an ,nglish #h&sicist and grandson o$ Charles Darwin o$ evolutionar& $ame. Des#ite being concerned about the over-#o#ulation o$ the world he had $our sons and one daughter with his wi$e Katharine -ember. .he h&#ocris& o$ this ma& seem odd/ but the concern about over-#o#ulation onl& re$ers to in$erior breeds o$ humans and not su#erior breeds li e himsel$ and his lineage. C.G. Darwin was a long time member and eventual #resident o$ the ,ugenic 0ociet& '1951-59+ which re#resented the belie$ s&stem held among man& o$ the #olitical/ scienti$ic and aristocratic elites o$ his da& and the #resent. Why the Next Million Years? .his article will e2amine some o$ C.G. Darwin's views o$ what the ne2t million &ears o$ man ind's $uture histor& will loo li e. 3ut $irst/ wh& such a enormous length o$ a million &ears o$ $uture histor&4 5rom The Next Million Years6

%... in the evolution o$ li$e/ how long does it ta e to ma e a new s#ecies4 .he answer is a million &ears. .hat is the reason $or the title 7 have chosen $or this essa& - $or a million &ears to come we have got to #ut u# with all the de$ects in man's nature as it is now.% 8 )( The Laws of Human Nature %9evertheless $or all o$ us it is intolerable to thin o$ the $uture un$olding itsel$ in com#lete #redestined inevitabilit& $or the eternit& o$ a million &ears. .here are two things we must do: one is to now/ the other to act. ;s to nowing/ in m& introductor& cha#ter 7 described an analog& in mechanics/ and 7 suggested that it should be #ossible to discover a set o$ laws/ li e the laws o$ thermod&namics/ which would #lace absolute limits on what can be done b& humanit&. 3iological laws cannot be e2#ected to have the same hard outline as #h&sical laws/ but still there are absolute laws limiting what an animal can do/ and similar laws will limit man not onl& on his #h&sical side/ but also on his intellectual side. 7$ these could be clearl& stated/ we should recogni<e that man& attem#ts that have been made at im#roving man's estate were ho#eless. 7t is $or others/ better versed than 7 am in the biological sciences/ to wor out these laws/ and it is in all humilit& that 7 #ut $orward the basis/ on which/ it ma& be/ that the& could be $ounded. .he $irst #rinci#le is that man/ as an animal/ obe&s the law o$ variation o$ s#ecies/ which condemns human nature to sta& nearl& constant $or a million &ears. The erfe!ti"ility of mankin#$ the aim of so many no"le s irits$ is fore#oome# "y this rin!i le. .he second is that man is a wild animal/ and that doctrines drawn $rom the observation o$ domestic animals are =uite ina##licable to him. .he third #rinci#le is the non-inheritance o$ ac=uired characters/ a #rinci#le $amiliar in animal biolog&/ but all too seldom invo ed in connection with human beings. 7$ these/ and an& $urther #rinci#les as well/ or an& alternatives to them/ were acce#ted/ it might sometimes be #ossible through them to show u# the absurdities o$ bad statesmanshi#/ and certainl& it would be the #art o$ a wise statesman to wor within their limitations/ because onl& so could he ho#e to achieve success.% !em#hasis mine" - 2>* %; histor& o$ the $uture is di$$erent $rom a histor& o$ the #ast/ because it cannot in an& sense be a narrative. 7t cannot sa& what will ha##en in an&thing li e the same manner as #ast histor& sa&s what did ha##en. ;ll it can do is to sa& what things will be ha##ening most o$ the time and in most #laces/ but without being able to s#eci$& those times and those #laces. .his it does through consideration o$ the laws o$ nature/ !hief amon% whi!h is the law of human nature.% !em#hasis mine" - 1*) The Nee# to &han%e Human Nature ;s a avid eugenicist/ C. G. Darwin believed %im#rovements% in the human s#ecies could onl& come about through the changing o$ man ind's hereditar& nature. %'ut there is also the ossi"ility of an internal re(olution) This woul# !ome a"out if means were #is!o(ere# of #eli"erately alterin% human nature itself... here it must

su$$ice to sa& that the #ros#ects do not seem at all good. .here is $irst the e2treme di$$icult& o$ ma ing such changes/ and the #robabilit& that most o$ them would be $or the worse/ and secondl&/ i$ b& chance a revolutionar& im#rovement should arise/ it seems all too li el& that the rest o$ man ind would not tolerate the su#ermen and would destro& them be$ore ever the& had the time to multi#l&. 7t is mainl& the belie$ that there will be no revolutionar& change in human nature that emboldened me to write this essa&.% !em#hasis mine" - 5* %0till $or the sa e o$ the distant $uture something can be attem#ted more #ro$itable than has been usual hitherto. Attem ts at im ro(in% the lot of mankin# ha(e all hitherto "een #ire!te# towar# im ro(in% his !on#itions$ "ut not his nature$ an# as soon as the !on#itions la se all is lost. .he onl& ho#e is to use our nowledge o$ biolog& in such a wa& that all would not be lost with the la#se o$ the conditions. .he #rinci#les o$ heredit& o$$er an anchor which will #ermanentl& $i2 an& gains that there ma& be in the =ualit& o$ man ind.% !em#hasis mine" - 2>( %7$ the histor& o$ the $uture is not regarded as the automatic un$olding o$ a se=uence o$ uncontrollable events - and $ew/ o$ us would acce#t this inevitabilit& - then an&one who has decided what measures are desirable $or the ermanent betterment o$ his $ellows will naturall& have to consider what is the best method o$ carr&ing his #olic& through. .here are three levels at which he might wor . .he $irst and wea est is b& direct conscious #olitical action: his #olic& is li el& to die with him and so to be ine$$ective. .he second is b& the creation o$ a creed/ since this has the #ros#ect o$ lasting $or =uite a number o$ generations/ so that there is some #ros#ect o$ reall& changing the world a little with it. .he third would be b& directl& changing man's nature/ wor ing through the laws o$ biological heredit&/ and i$ this could be done $or long enough it would be reall& e$$ective. 3ut even i$ we new all about man's genes/ which we certainl& do not/ a #olic& o$ this ind would be almost im#ossible to en$orce even $or a short time/ and/ since it would ta e man& generations to carr& it through/ it would almost certainl& be dro##ed long be$ore an& #erce#tive e$$ects were achieved.% !em#hasis in original" - 11? The *tru!ture an# +un!tion of ,o(ernment @hat will the $uture structure and $unction o$ government be during the ne2t million &ears4 %7$ trans#ortation is eas&/ world con=uest will be easier both $or militar& reasons and because the more uniform !ulture shoul# make the worl# %o(ernment more a!!e ta"le.% !em#hasis mine" - 191 %@ides#read wealth can never be common in an overcrowded world/ and so in most countries o$ the $uture the government will inevitabl& be autocratic or oligarchic: some will give good government and some bad/ and the goodness or badness will de#end much more on the #ersonal merits o$ the rulers than it does in a more democratic countr&.% - 19? %@hatever $orms the government ma& ta e/ there can be little doubt that the world will s#ontaneousl& divide itsel$ into what 7 shall call #rovinces/ that is to sa& regions/ though with no #ermanentl& $i2ed boundaries/ which #ossess some homogeneit& o$ climate/

character and interests. 7 use the same word whether the di$$erent #rovinces are $ederated together/ or whether the& are what we should now call se#arate sovereign states. Aow large will these #rovinces tend to be4 .hat will de#end on the means o$ communication and trans#ort/ and so once again there arises the =uestion o$ whether the $uel #roblem is solved wholl& or #artiall& or not at all. 7n the #ast the chie$ means o$ communication was the horse/ and the countries o$ ,uro#e are still mostl& o$ a si<e ado#ted to suit this almost e2tinct means o$ trans#ort/ though some o$ the more newl& $ormed ones do show a trace o$ the in$luence o$ the railwa&. 9one o$ them are reall& o$ a si<e suited to the motor-car or the aero#lane/ or to #resent #ower #roduction/ whether b& coal or water-#ower/ which cuts right across the national boundaries. 7$ the $uel #roblem is solved com#letel&/ so that mechanical #ower and trans#ortation is available in the $uture to a greater e2tent even than at #resent/ then the #rovinces will be large: $or e2am#le/ the whole o$ ,uro#e ma& well be one/ and the whole o$ 9orth ;merica another... Consider ne2t what are li el& to be usual relations between the #rovinces. 7t is too much to e2#ect that there can ever be a #ermanent world government benevolentl& treating all o$ them on a #er$ect e=ualit&: such an institution could onl& wor during the rare occasions o$ a world-wide golden age. To think of it as ossi"le at other times is a misun#erstan#in% of the fun!tion of %o(ernment in any ra!ti!al sense of the term) -f the only thin%s that a %o(ernment was re.uire# to #o were what e(ery"o#y$ or nearly e(ery"o#y$ wante#$ there woul# "e no nee# for the %o(ernment to exist at all$ "e!ause the thin%s woul# "e #one anyhow: this would be the im#racticable ideal o$ the anarchist. 'ut if there are to "e star(in% mar%ins of o ulation in most arts of the worl#$ mere "ene(olen!e !annot suffi!e. .here would inevitabl& be ill $eeling and Bealous& between the #rovinces/ with each believing that it was not getting its $air share o$ the good things/ and in $act/ it would be li e the state o$ a$$airs with which we are all too $amiliar. -f then there is e(er to "e a worl# %o(ernment$ it will ha(e to fun!tion as %o(ernment #o now$ in the sense that it will ha(e to !oer!e a minority / an# in#ee# it may often "e a ma0ority / into #oin% thin%s they #o not want to #o.% !em#hasis mine" - 191 &i(ili1ation an# a 2ni(ersal &ulture of *!ien!e %Civili<ation might/ loosel& s#ea ing/ be counted as a sort o$ domestication/ in that it im#oses on man conditions not at all t&#ical o$ wild li$e.% - 115 %Civili<ation has taught man how to live in dense crowds/ and b& that ver& $act those crowds are li el& ultimatel& to constitute a maBorit& o$ the world's #o#ulation. ;lread& there are man& who #re$er this crowded li$e/ but there are others who do not/ and these will graduall& be eliminated. Ci$e in the crowded conditions o$ cities has man& unattractive $eatures/ but in the long run these ma& be overcome/ not so mu!h "y alterin% them$ "ut sim ly "y !han%in% the human ra!e into likin% them.% !em#hasis mine" - 99 %.o conclude/ 7 have cited the #ast histor& o$ China as $urnishing the t&#e o$ an enduring civili<ation. 7t seems to #rovide a model to which the $uture histor& o$ the world ma& be

e2#ected broadl& to con$orm. .he scale will o$ course be altogether vaster/ and the variet& o$ ha##enings cannot b& an& means be $oreseen/ but 7 believe that the underl&ing ground theme can be $oreseen and that in a general wa& it will be rather li e the histor& o$ the Chinese ,m#ire. .he regions o$ the world most o$ the time will be com#eting against one another. Dccasionall& - more rarel&/ than has been the case in China - the& will be united b& some strong arm into an uneas& world-government/ which will endure $or a #eriod until it $alls b& the inevitable deca& that $inall& destro&s all d&nasties. .here will be #eriods when some o$ the #rovinces rela#se into barbarism/ but all the time civili<ation will survive in some o$ them. -t will sur(i(e "e!ause it will "e "ase# on a sin%le uni(ersal !ulture$ #eri(e# from the un#erstan#in% of s!ien!e3 for it is only throu%h this un#erstan#in% that the multitu#es !an !ontinue to li(e. Dn this basic culture there will be overlaid other cultures/ o$ten #ossessing a greater emotional a##eal/ which will var& according to climate and race $rom one #rovince to another. Eost o$ the time and over most o$ the earth there will be severe #ressure $rom e2cess #o#ulations/ and there will be #eriodic $amines. .here will be a conse=uent callousness about the value o$ the individual's li$e/ and o$ten there will be cruelt& to a degree o$ which we do not willingl& thin . This howe(er is only one si#e of the history) 4n the other si#e there will "e (ast stores of learnin%$ far "eyon# anythin% we !an now ima%ine$ an# the intelle!tual stature of man will rise to e(er hi%her le(els. ;nd sometimes new discoveries will $or a time relieve the human race $rom its $ears/ and there will be golden ages/ when man ma& $or a time be $ree to create wonder$ul $lowerings in science/ #hiloso#h& and the arts.% !em#hasis mine" - 2>1 ,lo"ali1ation Lea#s to *la(ery %;s to the less success$ul members/ the standard o$ living o$ an& communit& living on its real earnings/ as the communities o$ the $uture will have to do/ is inevitabl& lower than that o$ one ra#idl& s#ending the savings o$ hundreds o$ millions o$ &ears as we are doing now. .here will also be the $re=uent threat o$ starvation/ which will o#erate against the least e$$icient members o$ ever& communit& with s#ecial $orce/ so that it ma& be e2#ected that the conditions o$ their wor will be much more severe than at #resent. 5(en now we see that a low stan#ar# of li(in% in one !ountry has the a#(anta%e in !om etin% a%ainst a hi%h stan#ar# in another. 7$ there is wor to be done/ and/ o$ two men o$ e=ual =ualit&/ one is willing to do it $or less #a& than the other/ in the long run it will be he who gets the wor to do. .hose who $ind the bad conditions su##ortable will be willing to wor harder and $or less reward: in a broad sense o$ the term the& are more e$$icient than the others/ because the& get more done $or less #a&. .here are o$ course man& e2ce#tions/ $or real s ill will get its reward/ but in the long run it is inevitable that the lower t&#es o$ labour will have an e2ceedingl& #recarious li$e. Dne o$ the trium#hs o$ our own golden age has been that slaver& has been abolished over a great #art o$ the earth. 7t is di$$icult to see how this condition can be maintained in the hard world o$ the $uture with its starving margins/ and it is too be $eared that all too o$ten a $raction o$ humanit& will have to live in a state which/ whatever it ma& be called/ will be indistinguishable $rom slaver&.% !em#hasis mine" - 1(9 &om uters To Pre#i!t the Near +uture

%7 am imagining that some new discover& should ma e the #rocess $ar more #recise $or short-term #lanning. .his might come about/ $or e2am#le/ through the use o$ new highs#eed counting machines/ which in a short s#ace o$ time might e2#lore the conse=uences o$ alternative #olicies with a com#leteness that is $ar be&ond an&thing that the human mind can as#ire to achieve directl&.% - 55 ; #rogram currentl& underwa& at the -entagon called the 0entient @orld 0imulation attem#ts to do Bust that. 5rom an article b& Ear 3aard6 %F.0 de$ense/ intel and homeland securit& o$$icials are constructing a #arallel world/ on a com#uter/ which the agencies will use to test #ro#aganda messages and militar& strategies.% %Called the 0entient @orld 0imulation/ the #rogram uses ;7 routines based u#on the #s&chological theories o$ Eart& 0eligman/ among others. '0eligman introduced the theor& o$ %learned hel#lessness% in the 19*>s/ a$ter shoc ing beagles until the& cowered/ urinating/ on the bottom o$ their cages.+% %Gan a countr&'s water su##l&. 0tage a militar& cou#. 0@0 will tell &ou what ha##ens ne2t.% %.he sim will $eature an ;R avatar $or each #erson in the real world/ based u#on data collected about us $rom government records and the internet.% &on!lusion .he ne2t #art in this series will e2amine C. G. Darwin's views on the #ossibilit& o$ domesticating the whole o$ man ind. -art 1 will loo into the im#ortance o$ creeds on the $uture histor& o$ man ind. .he second last #art in this series will e2amine C. G. Darwin's em#hasis on the desirabilit& o$ eugenics and wa&s o$ #er#etuating %su#erior% genes in $uture generations. 5inall&/ 7 will e2amine the di$$iculties in controlling the si<e o$ the world #o#ulation as described in The Next Million Years. !1" Huotes $rom Charles Galton Darwin/ The Next Million Years '1952+. 9ote6 7 $irst heard about this boo $rom tal s given b& ;lan @att at Cutting .hrough .he Eatri2.com/ an individual well worth loo ing into.

&an Mankin# "e Domesti!ate#?

The Next Million Years Part 6 Brent Jessop - Knowledge Driven Revolution.com March 10, 2008

%.he onl& imaginable wa& o$ overcomingthese !sic" di$$iculties would be to set u# a class o$ consultants who would #rescribe what marriages were eugenicall& admissible and how large the conse=uent $amilies should be. 3ut this does not solve the di$$icult&: it onl& #ushes it bac a stage/ $or it leaves unanswered the =uestion who are to be the consultants/ and what #rinci#les are to guide them in settling the values o$ the di$$erent =ualities o$ man ind. 7t comes bac to Bust the di$$icult& 7 described in m& $able/ that a tame animal must have a master/ and that therefore thou%h it mi%ht !on!ei(a"ly "e ossi"le to tame the ma0ority of mankin#$ this !oul# only "e #one "y lea(in% untame# a minority of the o ulation) Moreo(er$ this minority woul# ha(e to "e the %rou ossessin% the most su erior .ualities of all)% !em#hasis mine" - Charles Galton Darwin/ 1952 '#121+

7s it #ossible to domesticate humanit& as a whole4 @ould we need a wild master race to watch over us4 Charles Galton Darwin in his 1952 boo The Next Million Years !1" attem#ts to answer these =uestions. 7n this boo C. G. Darwin '1(()-19*2+ attem#ts to give a general outline o$ the %$uture histor&% o$ man ind. Ae was an ,nglish #h&sicist and grandson o$ Charles Darwin o$ evolutionar& $ame. Des#ite being concerned about the over-#o#ulation o$ the world he had $our sons and one daughter with his wi$e Katharine -ember. .he h&#ocris& o$ this ma& seem odd/ but the concern about over-#o#ulation onl& re$ers to in$erior breeds o$ humans

and not su#erior breeds li e himsel$ and his lineage. C.G. Darwin was a long time member and eventual #resident o$ the ,ugenic 0ociet& '1951-59+ which re#resented the belie$ s&stem held among man& o$ the #olitical/ scienti$ic and aristocratic elites o$ his da& and the #resent. .he $irst #art in this series e2amined a variet& o$ issues that C. G. Darwin envisions $or the ne2t million &ears o$ the $uture histor& o$ humanit& including6 the altering o$ human nature/ the structure o$ government and the e$$ects o$ globali<ation and com#uters. &an Mankin# "e Domesti!ate#? 5rom The Next Million Years6 %Civili<ation might/ loosel& s#ea ing/ be counted as a sort o$ domestication/ in that it im#oses on man conditions not at all t&#ical o$ wild li$e. 7t might then at least be argued that it is a $alse analog& to com#are man to a wild animal/ but that he should rather be com#ared to one which has been domesticated. 7 shall maintain that this analog& would be $alse/ and that man is and will alwa&s continue to be essentiall& a wild and not a tame animal. 3e$ore coming to this main theme it is im#ortant to notice that/ i$ it were admissible to regard man as a domesticated animal/ the whole time-scale o$ histor& would have to be radicall& altered. .hus though the geological evidence shows that it ta es a million &ears to ma e a new wild s#ecies/ we now that the various domesticated animals have been created in a ver& much shorter time. 5or e2am#le/ the ancestors o$ the gre&hound and the bulldog o$ ten thousand &ears ago would #robabl& have been =uite indistinguishable. 7$ then man's characteristics could be similarl& remoulded in so short a time/ the whole $uture o$ histor& might be radicall& di$$erent. 7t would become im#ossible to $orecast man's $uture a$ter as short a #eriod as ten thousand &ears/ hardl& longer than the s#an o$ nown #ast histor&/ instead o$ the million &ears which holds i$ he is a wild animal. 7n the $irst #lace/ it is necessar& to be clear as to what is meant b& a wild or a tame animal. @e are a#t sometimes to call an animal wild because it is dangerous to man/ and to call it tame because it is harmless/ but this is a slovenl& wa& o$ s#ea ing/ and here 7 shall use the word %tame% sim#l& as a s&non&m $or %domesticated% which 7 thin is its true meaning. A tame animal then is one that #oes the will of a master/ and the savage watch-dog/ trained to bite all intruders/ is tamer than the $riendl& terrier which sometimes sli#s awa& to do its own #rivate hunting. ;ll tame animals owe their =ualities to centuries o$ selective breeding/ and it must alwa&s be remembered that the changes made in them owe nothing to the inheritance o$ ac=uired characters/ but are due to the selection $or breeding o$ those individual animals which show to the highest degree natural characteristics use$ul to their masters. ; chie$ $eature in domesticated animals has been the creation o$ a great variet& o$ breeds/ each s#eciali<ed $or some #articular #ur#ose/ either #ractical or aesthetic. ,ach breed $ar

e2cels its wild ancestr& in the =ualit& $or which it has been bred/ so that race-horses run $aster than wild horses/ dair& cows give much more mil than and wild cattle/ and the shee /#o% has e(en "een "re# to #o skilfully the exa!t o osite of what the an!estral wolf woul# ha(e #one. 9ow human $amilies o$ten show s#ecial =ualities in which the& e2cel their $ellows/ and in some cases these =ualities seem to be hereditar& - witness the musicians o$ the 3ach $amil&. 7$ man is reall& a tame animal/ there is no reason wh& breeds o$ man should not be created/ sa& breeds o$ mathematicians or o$ #ro$essional runners/ who should #ossess gi$ts $ar be&ond an&thing we now now/ and $ar be&ond an&thing that their $ellows could com#ete against. Certainl& at the #resent time man ind is ver& $ar $rom this/ but that would not e2clude the #ossibilit& in the not so ver& distant $uture/ i$ man reall& were a tame animal. 7 shall consider this =uestion o$ s#ecial breeds later in the cha#ter in more detail: all the evidence seems to show that the& will not arise/ but to see this clearl&/ it is best to return to the #rime $eature o$ tameness/ obedience to a master. 7t is obvious that we in this countr&/ with our #assion $or $reedom/ value wildness ver& highl&/ whereas in some lands/ where the #o#ulation are content to live under a much more strictl& controlled rule o$ disci#line/ tameness ma& be more nearl& acce#table. .his =uestion o$ taste is irrelevant however/ $or it might be that a tame race could achieve so much higher a degree o$ e$$icienc& that it could master the wild ones/ and so reduce them also to a state o$ tameness. 7 am going to maintain that this cannot ha##en/ in that man is untameable. .he reason involves a $eature not o$ten #resent in scienti$ic arguments/ and 7 will venture to introduce it b& means o$ a $able.% !em#hasis mine" - 115 C.G Darwin's $able revolves around a highl& intelligent/ long living 'ten-thousand &ears+ %director% who breeds #eo#le $or s#eciali<ed tas s. %.hough this has onl& been #resented as a $able/ the e2#erience with domesticated animals does show that the most astonishing im#rovements could be made in the various human $aculties/ i$ a similar course o$ continuous selection could be a##lied to man over as long a #eriod o$ time. The trou"le is that for man this is not ossi"le$ "e!ause he has %ot to a ly the sele!tion to himself/ and that means that it is not merel& a di$$erent #roblem/ but a wholl& di$$erent ind o$ #roblem. .here is a $undamental di$$erence between the subBective and the obBective. 0cienti$ic #rogress has alwa&s succeeded onl& b& regarding its themes o$ stud& obBectivel&: even in the $ield o$ #s&cholog& #rogress has mainl& come b& the stud& o$ the minds o$ others/ that is to sa& obBectivel&/ instead o$ b& $ollowing the old barren course o$ intros#ection. .he most severe critic o$ his own conduct can never Budge his actions as i$ the& were someone else's/ and the selective breeding o$ other t&#es o$ #eo#le would be no guide at all in the breeding o$ his own ind. 7$ the director had $oreseen his death/ he would have tried to #roduce a successor to himsel$. 0ince his #ro$ound belie$ in heredit& had been so $ull& con$irmed b& the remar able changes he had made in his subBects/ he would naturall& e2#ect that it would be one o$ his own sons that would be best $itted to succeed him/ but his di$$icult& would be Bust the same i$ he were tr&ing to $ind a successor elsewhere. .he matter is on =uite a di$$erent $ooting $rom all his other decisions. 5or the others he could sa&6 %7 have im#roved all our breeds/ b& seeing which son im#roved on the =ualities o$ his $ather. .hat is wh& 7

select &ou.% 5or his own successor the utmost he could sa& would be %7 am selecting &ou in the ho#e that &ou ma& be a better director than 7 have been. 3ut 7 have no idea how &ou will set about it/ since/ i$ 7 had nown what 7 was $ailing in/ 7 should have set it right m&sel$.% .he targets in the two statements are =uite di$$erent/ $or in one he nows what he is aiming at/ in the other he does not. 7n one case the target is too ma e the man better/ in the other to ho#e to ma e him as good. 4ne is the systemati! "ree#in% of tame animals$ the other the unsystemati! metho# of nature in the "ree#in% of wil# animals. .his #oint is so im#ortant that be$ore $ollowing it to its conclusion 7 will give another e2am#le/ which has the advantage o$ not being $abulous. 7n their studies o$ how to im#rove the human race the eugenists have ver& naturall& considered both ends o$ their #roblem/ the increase in the good =ualities o$ humanit& and the elimination o$ the bad =ualities. .heir chie$ e$$ort has gone/ =uite rightl& at $irst/ into the eas& #art o$ the #roblem/ and the& have s#ent most o$ their energ& in #ointing out the disastrous tendencies o$ the #resent #olic& o$ directl& encouraging the breeding o$ the $eeble-minded. .his is undoubtedl& use$ul wor / but it is com#arativel& eas&/ since these $eeble-minded can be regarded obBectivel& b& their su#eriors/ and so might become amenable to the same sort o$ control as is a##licable to domestic animals. .his restraint o$ the breeding o$ the $eeble-minded is im#ortant/ and it must never be neglected/ but it cannot be regarded as a reall& e$$ective wa& o$ im#roving the human race. 7$ b& analog& one wished to im#rove the breed o$ racehorses/ one might accom#lish a little b& alwa&s slaughtering the horse that $inished last in ever& race/ but it would be a much slower #rocess than the actual one o$ sending the winner to the stud $arm. Conscious o$ this criticism/ eugenists have o$ten attem#ted to de$ine what are the good characteristics which should be #ositivel& encourage/ instead o$ onl& the negative ones that must be discouraged/ but the results are disa##ointing. Cists o$ meritorious =ualities such as good health/ good #h&si=ue/ high intelligence/ good $amil& histor&/ are com#iled/ and those #ossessing them are told that the& should breed/ but the statements lead nowhere in #ractice/ $or no one can be e2#ected to assess his own merits and demerits in a balance wa&. Aow/ $or e2am#le/ is a man to weigh his own good health or good abilit& against a heredit& made dubious/ sa&/ b& an uncle who was insane/ or again how is he to stri e a balance between considerable artistic gi$ts - as he thin s - together with a good $amil& record/ but =uite bad health. -t is !learly "eyon# anyone to #e!i#e these thin%s for himself/ and even then the matter is onl& hal$ settled/ since similar Budgments are needed $or both #artners to the marriage. Aowever hel#$ul the literature ma& be which can be consulted/ it is evident that subBective Budgments on such matters are too di$$icult: with the best will in the world the& would ver& o$ten be made wrongl&/ because/ however sincerel& he tries/ no man can be a good Budge in his own case.% !em#hasis mine" - 12> &oul# Man "e Turne# -nto an Ant? %.hese e2am#les suggest the im#ossibilit& o$ taming man ind as a whole/ but be$ore acce#ting the #rinci#le $ull&/ it is #ro#er to e2amine a case where the e2act contrar& has ha##ened: this is in the insect civili<ation o$ the ants or termites. 7n a##l&ing the same term/ civili<ation/ to both ants and men/ it is hardl& necessar& to sa& that 7 am drawing an

analog& between things which are reall& o$ a ver& di$$erent =ualit&. ;ll s#ecies o$ ants live in cities/ and some s#ecies have develo#ed agriculture/ others animal husbandr&: but all these #ractices are #urel& instinctive and individual to each s#ecies. 4n the other han# human !i(ili1ation is an a!.uire# !hara!ter$ "ase# on e#u!ation/ and so is not inherent in man's nature. 9evertheless it ma& be worth while to $ollow out the analog& a little $urther. ;dmitting the di$$erent sense o$ the words/ it ma& be said that all s#ecies o$ ants have made the third revolution/ the invention o$ cities/ that some have made the second/ agriculture/ none the $irst or $ourth/ $ire and science: but the& have all added another revolution o$ their own/ the com#lete control o$ the #roblem o$ se2. .he ants' nest has no rulers at all/ $or the =ueen is hardl& more than an egg-la&ing mechanism/ and the& seem to get on #er$ectl& well without civil servants or law&ers or ca#tains o$ industr&. @h& cannot man set u# a communit& li e an ants' nest4 .his would be the ideal o$ the anarchist/ and hitherto it has held no #romise at all o$ success/ "ut with the hel of re!ent an# ro"a"le future "iolo%i!al #is!o(eries$ some sort of imitation "y man of the ants' nest !annot "e .uite ex!lu#e# from !onsi#eration. .hus the control o$ the numbers o$ the two se2es ma& become #ossible/ and with the nowledge o$ the carious se2ual hormones it mi%ht also "e!ome ossi"le to free the ma0ority of mankin# from the ur%en!y of sexual im ulse/ so that the& could live contented celibate lives/ instead o$ the unsatis$ied celibate lives that are the com#ulsor& lot o$ such a large $raction o$ the #resent #o#ulation o$ the world. 7$ these discoveries should be made - and this is reall& b& no means im#ossible - man would be able to carr& out the se2 revolution which is the t&#ical characteristic o$ the insect civili<ations. .he detail would o$ course have to be =uite di$$erent/ $or instead o$ one =ueen there would have to be large numbers o$ $ertile women to renew the #o#ulation/ whereas there might be one ing/ literall& the $ather o$ his countr&. ;lso it is #robable that on account o$ their greater #h&sical strength/ it would be the men who would be the wor ers.% - !em#hasis mine" 125 What A"out a Master 'ree#? %7n order to create such s#ecialist breeds there would have to be a master breed at the summit/ and this would be a totall& di$$erent ind o$ thing $rom all the other breeds/ because it would have to create itsel$.% - 11> %;t ever& turn the argument leads bac to this =uestion o$ the master breed. 9othing can be done in the wa& o$ changing man $rom a wild into a tame animal without $irst creating such a breed/ but most #eo#le are entirel& inconsistent in their ideas o$ what the& want created. Dn the one hand the& $eel that all the world's #roblems would be solved i$ onl& there were a wise and good man who would tell ever&bod& what to do/ but on the other hand the& bitterl& resent being themselves told what to do. ;s to which o$ these motives would #revail/ it seems at least #robable that it would be the resentment/ so that i$ the breed should arise in an& manner/ it would be e2tir#ated be$ore it could ever become well established. 7t is/ however/ imaginable/ that there might be a #art o$ the world in which the breed was acce#ted/ and that this #art should gain a su#eriorit& over the rest o$ the world/ because it could develo# various suitable breeds o$ s#ecialists under the control and direction o$ the master breed/ and b& the e2ercise o$ the s ills o$ these s#ecialists it might

overcome the other nations. 0o it is a##ro#riate to loo a little $urther into the matter. 7magine that through new discoveries in biolog&/ sa& b& suitabl& controlled doses o$ Ira&s/ it becomes #ossible to modi$& the genes in an& desired direction/ so that heritable changes can be #roduced in the =ualities o$ some members o$ the human race. 7 ma& sa& 7 do not believe this is ever li el& to be #racticable/ but that does not matter as $ar as concerns the #resent argument. .he $irst success might be in some #h&sical attribute/ $or e2am#le/ b& ma ing a breed with longer and stronger legs so that it could Bum# a good deal higher than an&one can at #resent. 3ut #assing to more im#ortant matters/ there might be created a breed which could thin more abstractl&/ sa& a breed o$ mathematicians/ or one that could thin more Budiciousl&/ sa& a breed o$ higher civil servants. .hese would be o$ great value/ but the& would not be the master breed/ and the =uestion arises o$ a more #recise #rescri#tion $or what the =ualities o$ the master breed are to be. 7t is usuall& best to build on what one alread& has/ rather than to start $rom nothing. 0o the natural #rocedure would be to begin with e2isting rulers/ since these have alread& established themselves as acce#table to at least a good man& o$ their $ellow creatures. Dne would collect together/ sa&/ a hundred o$ the most im#ortant #resent rulers - among them o$ course should be included a good man& who e2ert secret in$luence without holding an& overt o$$ice - and tell them to get on with the business o$ settling what the master breed should be. 7t is im#ossible to believe that an& such bod& o$ men would ever reach agreement on an& subBect whatever: so this #lan $ails. 7n the search $or the =ualities o$ the master breed the ne2t idea might be to a##eal to the wisdom o$ our $ore$athers. -lato in his 7e u"li! !em#hasis in original" devotes much attention to this ver& subBect. @h& not then $ind a -lato/ give him his grou# o$ recruits/ and let him educate them $or thirt& &ears according to his #rescri#tion - though #erha#s $orti$&ing it b& the $indings o$ modern educational theor&: the result should be the master breed. 3ut this will not do either/ $or -lato was not educating the master breed/ he was educating the civil servant breed. 7t is not about these that there is an& di$$icult&: it is the $inding o$ someone to $ill the role o$ -lato himsel$. 7t all comes bac to the #oint that we do not now in the remotest degree what we want: $or 7 do not count as an answer the one that would usuall& be #ro#osed/ which would be that the t&#e re=uired should be good and wise/ while at the same time showing a s#ecial $avour $or the #articular enthusiasms o$ the #ro#oser. .he reason $or the im#ossibilit& o$ ma ing a #rescri#tion $or the master breed is that it is not a breed at all: to call it so is to change the sense o$ the word. 3reeds are s#eciali<ed $or #articular #ur#oses/ "ut the essen!e of masters is that they must not "e s e!iali1e#) They ha(e to "e a"le to #eal with totally unforeseen !on#itions$ an# this is a .uality of wil#$ not of tame$ life) No res!ri tion for the master "ree# is ossi"le. 7n these considerations 7 have been assuming the licence o$ su##osing that we might be able reall& to change human nature in a heritable manner/ and this is $ar be&ond all #robabilit&. Returning now to more #ractical considerations/ there seems no li elihood whatever o$ a master breed arising. ;ll through histor& the most $ormidable di$$icult& o$ ever& ruler has been the selection o$ his successor/ and the best intentions have been nearl& alwa&s disa##ointed. 7ndeed it is notabl& sur#rising how ver& seldom the choice has been

well made. .he immediate cause o$ these $ailures/ has been the di$$icult& o$ the subBective Budgments on the basis o$ which the choice must be made/ but $undamentall& the& have arisen $rom a cause in the dee# nature o$ man ind. D$ all animals man is the most read& to tr& e2#eriments and there are alwa&s candidates - $ar too man& candidates - who regard themselves as $it members $or the master breed. .his =ualit& is a characteristic o$ a wild animal/ and it will alwa&s #revent man $rom domesticating himsel$. Ae will alwa&s #revent the creation o$ the master breed/ through which alone the rest o$ man could be domesticated. .he evolution o$ the human race will not be accom#lished in the ten thousand &ears o$ tame animals/ but in the million &ears o$ wild animals/ because man is and will alwa&s continue to be a wild animal.% !em#hasis mine" - 11> %7t alwa&s comes bac to the same #oint/ that to carr& out an& #olic& s&stematicall& in such a wa& as #ermanentl& to in$luence the human race/ there would have to be a master breed o$ humanit&/ not itsel$ e2#osed to the conditions it is inducing in the rest. .he master breed/ being wild animals/ would be subBect to all the $ashions/ tastes and #assions o$ humanit& as we now it/ and so would never have the constanc& to establish $or generation a$ter generation a consistent #olic& which could materiall& alter the nature o$ man ind.% - 1(? &on!lusion .he ne2t #art in this series will loo into the im#ortance o$ creeds on the $uture histor& o$ man ind. .he second last #art in this series will e2amine C. G. Darwin's em#hasis on the desirabilit& o$ eugenics and wa&s o$ #er#etuating %su#erior% genes in $uture generations. 5inall&/ 7 will e2amine the di$$iculties in controlling the si<e o$ the world #o#ulation as described in The Next Million Years. !1" Huotes $rom Charles Galton Darwin/ The Next Million Years '1952+.

The -m ortan!e of &ree#s in *ha in% the +uture

The Next Million Years Part 8 Brent Jessop - Knowledge Driven Revolution.com March 17, 2008

%7n #art the result arises $rom two ver& general characteristics o$ man ind/ the tendenc& o$ the child to imitate what it sees going on round it/ and the tendenc& o$ #arents to want to teach their children.% - Charles Galton Darwin/ 1952 '#1>2+ .he wa& we inter#ret the world/ our creed/ is #artl& derived $rom our #ersonal e2#eriences but is usuall& dominated b& the creed o$ our #arents and the im#act o$ education. -o#ular creeds have been a maBor driving $orce $or the entire histor& o$ the world. 9aturall& then/ i$ creeds could be develo#ed or mani#ulated the $uture course o$ histor& would also be altered. Charles Galton Darwin's 1952 boo The Next Million Years !1" attem#ts to give a general outline o$ the %$uture histor&% o$ man ind b& using the %law o$ human nature%. C.G. Darwin '1(()-19*2+ was an ,nglish #h&sicist and grandson o$ Charles Darwin o$ evolutionar& $ame. Des#ite being concerned about the over-#o#ulation o$ the world he had $our sons and one daughter with his wi$e Katharine -ember. .he h&#ocris& o$ this ma& seem odd/ but the concern about over-#o#ulation onl& re$ers to in$erior breeds o$ humans and not su#erior breeds li e himsel$ and his lineage. C.G. Darwin was a long time member and eventual #resident o$ the ,ugenic 0ociet& '1951-59+ which re#resented the belie$ s&stem held among man& o$ the #olitical/ scienti$ic and aristocratic elites o$ his da& and the #resent. What is a &ree#? 5rom The Next Million Years6 %.urning now awa& $rom these narrower =uestions o$ biological heredit&/ consider the larger =uestion o$ how education/ in the widest sense/ has a$$ected and will a$$ect histor&. ,ver& man builds u# a world o$ thought/ directing his conduct/ whi!h is artly forme# from his own ex erien!e$ "ut e(en more of it is a!.uire# from his tea!hers$ an# in

later life from frien#s an# a!.uaintan!es$ or from "ooks. 7 shall use the word !ree# !em#hasis in original" to denote a set o$ tenets ac=uired in this general manner. 7 mean the word in an entirel& colourless sense/ with no =uestion arising o$ whether the creed is true or untrue/ moral or immoral. 7t is merel& a bod& o$ #hiloso#hical thought - whether it is reasonable or unreasonable #hiloso#h& - which is strongl& held and used as a main guide to conduct.% !em#hasis mine" - 1>? %.hose !creeds" we hold $irml& a##ear to us to have the inevitabilit& o$ the #ro#ositions o$ $ormal logic. Anyone who #oes not ha en to share our !ree#s is at the least re%ar#e# as an illo%i!al fool$ "ut more fre.uently as a er(ersely wi!ke# erson. 7t is this that has led to most o$ the terrible series o$ #ersecutions that have blac ened the records o$ histor&. Creeds o$ten arouse the most $anatical devotion. 7t is enthusiasm $or his creed that has created the mart&r/ and/ i$ we ha##en to share his creed/ the mart&r is regarded as one o$ the noblest o$ humanit&. 3ut the matter is not as sim#le as that/ $or this Budgment has usuall& been #reBudiced b& the $act that we do s&m#athi<e with the mart&r's creed/ and it is necessar& to loo at the subBect without this #reBudice. .he mart&r is driven to ma e the ultimate sacri$ice b& his enthusiasm $or his creed/ but this enthusiasm has usuall& been evo ed b& the counter-enthusiasm o$ his #ersecutors/ the maBorit& in #ower/ who hold an o##osite creed with e=ual $ervour. +or e(ery man who is willin% to #ie for his faith there will "e ten men who are willin% to kill for their faith. .he ten $eel that the& are actuated b& the same motive/ the #ure hatred o$ evil/ as that o$ the mart&r/ and the main di$$erence is onl& that $or wea human nature the role o$ the #ersecutor is easier than the role o$ the #ersecuted. 'ut that there is no (ery %reat #ifferen!e "etween the two is shown "y many exam les in history$ for when the erse!ute# arty has %aine# the u er han#$ it has usually in#ul%e# in !ounter/ erse!ution on a s!ale e.ual to that whi!h it ha# itself suffere#.% !em#hasis mine" - 1>) %;nother $eature o$ creeds seems to be rather general. Thou%h the ma0ority of a o ulation$ say somethin% like nine/tenths$ a!!e t their !ree# im li!itly an# re%ar# it as art of the law of nature$ there is always a small minority who #o not. Eost #eo#le call them the shee# - $ollow the ideas o$ their leaders un=uestioningl&/ but this minorit& the goats - %oes "y !ontraries$ an# #is"elie(es anythin% 0ust "e!ause those aroun# them "elie(e it. .he goats are o$ten not ver& #leasant #eo#le/ but the& are usuall& above the average o$ intelligence. -t is ro"a"ly the !orro#in% influen!e of the %oats that %ra#ually sa s the (itality of a !ree# "y its !umulati(e infe!tion/ and indeed there ma& well be a #ro#ortionalit& between the number o$ goats in a communit& and the li$e s#an o$ the creed o$ the shee# in that communit&.% !em#hasis mine" - 112 .he above #aragra#h highlights #er$ectl& wh& the dialectic techni=ue wor s so well in societ&. .he bul o$ the #o#ulation/ C. G. Darwin's shee#/ blindl& $ollow without =uestioning an&thing. .he bul o$ the remainder/ C. G. Darwin's goats/ Bust as blindl& $ollow an&thing that is contrar& to the shee#. 9either grou# e2amines or attem#ts to understand an& situation and both are e=uall& a#art o$ the #roblem. 0hee# and goats ali e have to learn to lead themselves and not blindl& $ollow be$ore an& #ositive changes will

occur. Continuing $rom the =uote above6 %7n $uture histor& the constanc& o$ human nature ma es it certain that man will continue to be dominated b& enthusiasm $or creeds o$ one ind or another: he will erse!ute an# "e erse!ute# a%ain an# a%ain for the sake of i#eas/ some o$ which to later ages will seem o$ no im#ortance/ and even unintelligible. 'ut there is one mu!h more (alua"le as e!t of !ree#s that must "e noti!e#) They ser(e to %i(e a !ontinuity to oli!y far %reater than !an usually "e attaine# "y intelle!tual !on(i!tion. .here are man& cases in histor& o$ enlightened statesmen who have devoted their lives to carr&ing through some measure $or the general good. .he& ma& have succeeded/ onl& to $ind that the ne2t generation neglects all the& have done/ so that it becomes undone again in $avour o$ some other =uite di$$erent wa& o$ bene$iting humanit&. .he intellectual ado#tion o$ a #olic& thus o$ten hardl& survives $or more than a single generation/ and this is too short a #eriod $or such a #olic& to overcome the tremendous e$$ects o$ #ure chance. 'ut if the oli!y !an arouse enou%h enthusiasm to "e in!or orate# in a !ree#$ then there is at least a ros e!t that it will !ontinue for somethin% like ten %enerations/ and that is long enough to give a $air #robabilit& that it will #revail over the o#erations o$ #ure chance. Thus a !ree# may ha(e the ru#iment of the .uality$ ossesse# "y the %enes of mankin#$ of "ein% a"le to ro#u!e a ermanent effe!t on humanity. 7$ the histor& o$ the $uture is not regarded as the automatic un$olding o$ a se=uence o$ uncontrollable events - and $ew/ o$ us would acce#t this inevitabilit& - then an&one who has decided what measures are desirable $or the ermanent !em#hasis in original" betterment o$ his $ellows will naturall& have to consider what is the best method o$ carr&ing his #olic& through. .here are three levels at which he might wor . .he $irst and wea est is b& direct conscious #olitical action: his #olic& is li el& to die with him and so to be ine$$ective. .he second is b& the creation o$ a creed/ since this has the #ros#ect o$ lasting $or =uite a number o$ generations/ so that there is some #ros#ect o$ reall& changing the world a little with it. .he third would be b& directl& changing man's nature/ wor ing through the laws o$ biological heredit&/ and i$ this could be done $or long enough it would be reall& e$$ective. 3ut even i$ we new all about man's genes/ which we certainl& do not/ a #olic& o$ this ind would be almost im#ossible to en$orce even $or a short time/ and/ since it would ta e man& generations to carr& it through/ it would almost certainl& be dro##ed long be$ore an& #erce#tive e$$ects were achieved. That is why !ree#s are so tremen#ously im ortant for the future3 a !ree# %i(es the "est ra!ti!al ho e that a oli!y will en#ure well "eyon# the life of its author$ an# so it %i(es the "est ra!ti!al ho e that man !an ha(e for really !ontrollin% his future fate.% !em#hasis mine" - 111 The Truth of a &ree# %7t will be noticed that 7 have not said an&thing at all about what is the $undamental =uestion in regard to an& creed/ and that is whether it is true or $alse. +or one who wants to "elie(e in a !ree# its truth is all that matters)))% !em#hasis mine" - 1>(

%7n the #ast there have been creeds/ such/ $or e2am#le/ as the belie$ in magic or divination/ which have been ver& widel& acce#ted/ but we now now them to have been =uite absurdl& $alse. Get the& have e2erted the ver& greatest in$luence on human histor&. The s e!ies homo has not !han%e#$ an# there are still (ery many who are only too ea%er to "elie(e in su!h thin%s / not "y any means all of them !onfine# to the less a#(an!e# !i(ili1ations / an# it must "e ex e!te# that this ten#en!y will !ontinue to re!ur a%ain an# a%ain.% !em#hasis mine" - 1>( .he degree that an& creeds/ regardless o$ its absurdit&/ can be develo#ed using modern $orms o$ education was elaborated on b& 3ertrand Russell. ;mong other things/ Russell o#erated an e2#erimental school in the late 192>'s with his second wi$e Dora 3lac . 5rom 3ertrand Russell's 1952 boo The Impact of Science on Societ !2" 6 .his subBect !mass #s&cholog&Jeducation" will ma e great strides when it is ta en u# b& scientists under a scienti$ic dictatorshi#. ;na2agoras maintained that snow is blac / but no one believed him. .he social #s&chologists o$ the $uture will have a number o$ classes o$ school children on whom the& will tr& di$$erent methods o$ #roducing an unsha eable conviction that snow is blac . Karious results will soon be arrived at. 5irst/ that the in$luence o$ home is obstructive. 0econd/ that not much can be done unless indoctrination begins be$ore the age o$ ten. .hird/ that verses set to music and re#eatedl& intoned are ver& e$$ective. 5ourth/ that the o#inion that snow is white must be held to show a morbid taste $or eccentricit&. 3ut 7 antici#ate. 7t is $or $uture scientists to ma e these ma2ims #recise and discover e2actl& how much it costs #er head to ma e children believe that snow is blac / and how much less it would cost to ma e them believe it is dar gre&.% - ?> 5or more about 3ertrand Russell's view on Eass -s&cholog& and ,ducation #lease read this article. 5u%eni!s &ree# 7t should come as little sur#rise that C. G. Darwin/ #resident o$ the ,ugenics 0ociet&/ would see the su#eriorit& o$ a creed $or intelligent #eo#le based on the #remise o$ eugenics. @hich o$ course/ is his creed. %.he detailed march o$ histor& will de#end a great deal on the creeds held b& the various branches o$ the human race. 7t cannot be #resumed with an& con$idence that #urel& su#erstitious creeds will alwa&s be reBected b& civili<ed communities/ in view o$ the e2traordinar& credulit& shown even now b& man& re#utedl& educated #eo#le. 7t is true that there ma& not be man& at the #resent time/ whose actions are guided b& an ins#ection o$ the entrails o$ a sacri$icial bull/ but the #rogress has not been ver& great/ $or there are still man& believers in #almistr& and astrolog&. -t is to "e ex e!te# then that in the future$ as in the ast$ there will "e su erstitions whi!h will nota"ly affe!t the !ourse of history/ and some o$ them/ such as ancestor-worshi#/ will have direct e$$ects on the develo#ment o$ the human s#ecies. 'ut su erstitious !ree#s will har#ly "e hel# "y the hi%hly intelli%ent$ an# it is re!isely the !ree# of these that matters) -s it ossi"le that there

shoul# arise a eu%eni! !ree#$ whi!h / erha s workin% throu%h what - ha(e !alle# the metho# of un!ons!ious sele!tion / shoul# !on!ern itself with the im ro(ement of the inherent nature of man$ instea# of restin% !ontent with merely %i(in% him %oo# "ut im ermanent a!.uire# !hara!ters? @ithout such a creed man's nature will onl& be changed through the blind o#eration o$ natural selection: with it he might as#ire to do something towards reall& changing his destin&.% !em#hasis mine" - 2>2 &on!lusion .he ne2t #art in this series will e2amine C. G. Darwin's em#hasis on the desirabilit& o$ eugenics and wa&s o$ #er#etuating %su#erior% genes in $uture generations. 5inall&/ 7 will e2amine the di$$iculties in controlling the si<e o$ the world #o#ulation as described in The Next Million Years. !1" Huotes $rom Charles Galton Darwin/ The Next Million Years '1952+. !2" Huotes $rom 3ertrand Russell/ The Impact of Science on Societ '1952+. 7039 >-?15-1>9>*-I

5u%eni!s an# the *ur(i(al of Mankin#

The Next Million Years Part 9 Brent Jessop - Knowledge Driven Revolution.com March 2!, 2008 %@hen homo sa#iens is changing/ it will not be b& the whole race gaining simultaneousl& whatever =ualities better $it it $or survival/ but rather b& certain t&#es o$ man ind #roving su#erior to the rest in survival value/ so that the& contribute a larger #ro#ortion to the later generations/ and in so doing drag the average =ualities o$ humanit& in the same direction.% Charles Galton Darwin/ 1952 '#9*+ Charles Galton Darwin's 1952 boo The Next Million Years !1" attem#ts to give a general outline o$ the %$uture histor&% o$ man ind b& using the %law o$ human nature%. C.G. Darwin '1(()-19*2+ was an ,nglish #h&sicist and grandson o$ Charles Darwin o$ evolutionar& $ame. Des#ite being concerned about the over-#o#ulation o$ the world he had $our sons and one daughter with his wi$e Katharine -ember. .he h&#ocris& o$ this ma& seem odd/ but the concern about over-#o#ulation onl& re$ers to in$erior breeds o$ humans and not su#erior breeds li e himsel$ and his lineage. C.G. Darwin was a long time member and eventual #resident o$ the ,ugenic 0ociet& '1951-59+ which re#resented the belie$ s&stem held among man& o$ the #olitical/ scienti$ic and aristocratic elites o$ his da& and the #resent.

*ome 5u%eni! 'asi!s 5rom The Next Million Years. %.here$ore in so $ar as it is #ossible to loo be&ond the brute =uestion o$ survival and to ma e subBective estimates o$ value about the $uture human race/ 7 shall rate as admirable an& im#rovement that in the course o$ the ages should develo# in the intellect o$ man ind/ and an& im#rovement in his sense o$ devotion to his $ellow man. ; combination o$ the two =ualities is best o$ all/ but i$ it is necessar& to select between them/ 7 should assign $irst #lace to intelligence.% - ?? %General intelligence should alwa&s be o$ value/ #articularl& the uns#eciali<ed intelligence that is ada#table to man& varieties o$ #ur#ose: so with some con$idence it ma& be e2#ected that man will become cleverer than he is now. 7t is b& no means so clear that he will become morall& better as well/ since in a highl& com#etitive world/ the sinner has man& advantages over the saint. .hat is disa##ointing/ but it must be remembered that moral codes have di$$ered a good deal at di$$erent #eriods in histor&...% - 9( A Darwin on *o!ial Darwinism

0ocial Darwinism - made $amous b& the 9a<i eugenics #rograms - is #romoted in The Next Million Years. %.here are man& other =ualities/ which hel# survival - and 7 shall be content to mention onl& a $ew o$ them/ some estimable and some the reverse. @e value intelligence/ honest/ ca#acit& $or leadershi#/ and other similar =ualities/ and we mar our a##roval b& selecting their #ossessors $or #romotion. ; man is #romoted on account o$ his individual merits/ without an& thought about the conse=uences $or the distant $uture. 7n a less abnormal world than the #resent/ his increased #ros#erit& should lead to the man's having a larger $amil& than those o$ the less #ros#erous/ so that the good =ualities inherited $rom him should graduall& become di$$used throughout the #o#ulation in later generations. ;t the #resent time the e2act o##osite ha##ens all too o$ten/ in that he is li el& to have a smaller $amil& than the average: in $act success in li$e is at #resent antagonistic to success in survival.% 91 %...but still it is interesting to see how it !selective breeding" would a##l& to humanit&/ when considerations induced $rom ethics are $or the moment $orgotten. ; #hilanthro#ic dictator wants to #er$ect the innate moral =ualities o$ the human race: how should he go about it4 5ollowing the e2am#le o$ the dog trainer/ he will devote all his attention to the good children/ and he will neglect the worse ones/ doing all he can to see that the& do not succeed in li$e/ and above all that the& are not #ermitted to hand on their in$erior =ualities to later generations. ;ctuall& all too o$ten #hilanthro#ic e$$ort goes in e2actl& the o##osite direction/ into curing the $aults o$ the worst/ without recogni<ing that the ac=uired characters so induced are =uite im#ermanent. 7n sa&ing this 7 am thin ing o$ the long-range #olic&/ and 7 do not in the least want to belittle the sel$-sacri$icing wor that is done b& so man& noble wor ers in im#roving the conduct o$ the worse elements o$ the #o#ulation. 7t ma& be Busti$ied as being a good in itsel$/ and moreover the e2istence o$ criminals #erturbs ver& seriousl& the li$e o$ the rest o$ the communit&/ so that ever&one bene$its i$ this nuisance is removed. *till it is ro er to note$ that the oli!y of ayin% most attention to the inferior ty es is the most ineffi!ient way ossi"le of a!hie(in% the erfe!ti"ility of the human ra!e.% !em#hasis mine" - 1>1 %0o it is surel& a Busti$iable claim that those selected $or #romotion are rather more li el& to have su#erior =ualities than those who were not so selected. 9ow man/ li e ever& other animal/ does tend to #ass on his natural =ualities to his o$$s#ring: there is no certaint& about it/ but there is a somewhat better chance that the sons o$ the #romoted candidate will be abler than those o$ his unsuccess$ul rivals. 0ince there will alwa&s be need $or as man& able #eo#le as #ossible/ the encouragement o$ the #romoted man to have children increases the chance that we shall $ind them in the ne2t generation. .he argument ma& be #ushed $urther still. There is a %oo# #eal of e(i#en!e that some men's a"ility is more intimately in!or orate# in their here#ity than it is for others) Thus there ha(e "een men of re/ eminent a"ility$ risen from the ranks$ whose #es!en#ants ha(e sunk "a!k in a %eneration or two$ whereas there are families where %eneration after %eneration %oes on ro#u!in% men of (ery %oo# a"ility) &learly the ro"a"ility of ro#u!in% a"le men is rather %reater in a family that has shown that it !an #o so o(er se(eral %enerations.% !em#hasis mine" - 11)

%...it is indis#utable that the more #ros#erous members o$ the communit& are not #roducing their share o$ the ne2t generation/ so that selection is now o#erating against the #ros#erous. ;s an e2am#le/ i$ the list o$ candidates is e2amined/ who are a##l&ing $or an& o$$ice o$ high or even mediocre im#ortance/ it will be $ound that something li e nine-tenths o$ them have either no children/ or one/ or two. D$ course/ i$ ever&one had e2actl& two children/ and both these children married and had e2actl& two more/ the #o#ulation would be e2actl& stead&/ but as things are/ it is a $air guess that / in each thirt& &ears o$ a generation/ this #art o$ our #o#ulation is reducing itsel$ to something between a hal$ and two-thirds. .his signi$ies that within a centur&/ there will at most be =uarter as man& #eo#le o$ this t&#e as there are now. .here will o$ course be some com#ensation b& the rise $rom other levels/ but/ as 7 have #ointed out/ to $ound our ho#es on them is to ta e a worse instead o$ a better chance. .he whole thing is a catastro#he which it is now almost too late to #revent.% - 1?> Ai#in% the Pro!ess: 2n!ons!ious *ele!tion %.o conclude the cha#ter 7 return to the narrower =uestion o$ the tendenc& o$ civili<ation to eliminate its ablest #eo#le. .his has ha##ened in the #ast/ and is certainl& ha##ening now/ and i$ it is alwa&s to ha##en/ it signi$ies a recurrent degeneration o$ all civili<ations/ onl& to be renewed b& the incursion o$ barbarians who have not su$$ered similarl&. 7$ an& civili<ed countr& could overcome this e$$ect/ so that it alone retained both its abilit& and its civili<ation/ it would certainl& become the leading nation o$ the world. Ean is a wild animal/ and cannot accom#lish this b& using the methods o$ the animal breeder/ but ma& he not be able to devise something that would go be&ond the long-drawn-out automatic #rocesses o$ 9atural 0election4 7 thin he can. ; cruder and sim#ler method must be used than the animal breeder's. 0omething might be accom#lished on the line o$ what is called %Fnconscious 0election% in the 4ri%in of * e!ies !em#hasis in original". Fnconscious 0election signi$ies that the $armer/ who has no intention whatever o$ im#roving his herd/ will naturall& select his best and not his worst animals to breed $rom/ and in conse=uence he will $ind that in $act he does im#rove the herd. ;s 7 have #ointed out/ we are all the time assessing the rival merits o$ individuals $or #romotion: the& are each chosen $or some s#ecial #ur#ose/ but li e the unconscious selection o$ the $armer/ the choice does mar the #romoted #erson as being su#erior to the average. Any !ountry that !oul# #e(ise a metho# where"y the romote# were stron%ly en!oura%e# to ha(e more !hil#ren than the rest$ woul# fin# itself soon ex!ellin% in the worl#. 7t would onl& be a rough and read& method/ with man& de$ects: $or e2am#le/ $rom the #oint o$ view o$ heredit& women are as im#ortant as men/ but it would not so o$ten be eas& to ta e their =ualities into account. 5urthermore the method would be e2tremel& subBect to $ashions - in which it would resemble the animal breeder's method - $or at one time greatest value would be given to the arts/ at another to militar& s ill/ and at another to administrative abilit& and so on. Aowever/ abilit& is not usuall& a ver& s#eciali<ed =ualit&/ and the e$$ect would be to #reserve high abilit& in general/ and thereb& to increase it/ since the abler #eo#le would be contributing more/ instead o$ less/ than their share to the ne2t generation. A nation mi%ht !ons!iously a#o t su!h a oli!y$ or it mi%ht "e that an e!onomi! oli!y a#o te# for .uite other reasons shoul# ha(e this uninten#e# result) Whate(er way it

!ame a"out$ if it !oul# last for e(en a few %enerations$ the effe!t woul# "e%in to show. 3ut humanit& isca#ricious !sic" and subBect to the #assions o$ the immediate #resent/ and it is hardl& li el& that an& countr&/ whether democrac& or autocrac&/ would $ollow such a #olic& long enough $or it to reall& tell. .he best ho#e $or it to endure would be that it should become attached to a creed/ and it would not matter ver& much whether the creed was reasonable or unreasonable/ #rovided that it #roduced the e$$ect. ,ither ancestorworshi#/ or a belie$ in the sin$ulness o$ birth-control/ would at least #lace the #romoted on an e=ualit& with the un#romoted/ and with their su#erior abilit& this would give them the advantage. 3ut since the matter concerns the more intelligent/ a reasonable creed would have a better a##eal than a mere su#erstition. 0uch a creed might be one which inculcated in those who were #romoted the dut& o$ having more children than their $ellows/ as an act bene$iting the human race. .he #ros#ect o$ such a creed arising does not seem ver& ho#e$ul/ but i$ b& its means an& countr& can even #artl& solve the #roblem/ it will lead the world/ and it will be doing so through the method o$ %Fnconscious 0election%.% !em#hasis mine" - 152 Ai#in% the Pro!ess: Alterin% Mankin# %...medical science might succeed in materiall& lengthening li$e without senilit&/ though in a world o$ overcrowded #o#ulation it is not ver& clear what would be gained. Lookin% a little #ee er there is the ossi"ility of su"stantially alterin% the intelle!tual an# moral natures of in#i(i#uals "y some sort of hormonal in0e!tions: alread& great e$$ects have been #roduced in animals. 5inall&/ as the most curious s#eculation o$ all/ it is not =uite im#ossible that it ma& one da& be $easible to select in advance the se2 o$ each child that is to be born. @hether the decision is made b& the #arents/ or b& their rulers/ this suggests that #robabilit& o$ a great unbalance in the #o#ulations o$ the world.% !em#hasis mine" - )* .he idea o$ using inBection to alter man ind was also #romoted b& 3ertrand Russell in his 1952 boo The Impact of Science on Societ !2" 6 %Diet/ inBections/ and inBunctions will combine/ $rom a ver& earl& age/ to #roduce the sort o$ character and the sort o$ belie$s that the authorities consider desirable/ and an& serious criticism o$ the #owers that be will become #s&chologicall& im#ossible. ,ven i$ all are miserable/ all will believe themselves ha##&/ because the government will tell them that the& are so.% - *1 5or more on 3ertrand Russell's views on the scienti$ic breeding o$ humans/ #lease read this #revious article. Returning to The Next Million Years6 %7$ a dictator should ever as#ire to bring about some reall& #ermanent change in humanit&/ he could do it i$/ and onl& i$/ he new how to alter some o$ the human genes/ $or onl& so could the changed =ualit& become anchored as a $i2ed character o$ the race.% - (2

C. G. Darwin goes on to state that he does not believe that the direct scienti$ic mani#ulation o$ genes will ever be #ossible but recent advances in genetics has made this a ver& li el& #ossibilit&. Parasiti! 5lite %7t is alwa&s necessar& to remember that nature itsel$ is =uite non-moral/ and that there are man& =ualities which we b& no means admire/ which nevertheless are o$ten regrettabl& e$$ective in the struggle $or li$e. ;ll through the animal ingdom one o$ the most success$ul roles is that o$ the #arasite/ and there are states o$ human societ& where such a #arasite as the #ro$essional beggar is as success$ul as an&one else. 0omething o$ the ind is un$ortunatel& true in 3ritain Bust now. .he #eo#le we are reall& encouraging are not those that we thin we are $or a great man& o$ the #eo#le who get good #romotion are contributing less than their share to the ne2t generation. ;t #resent the most e$$icient wa& $or a man to survive in 3ritain is to be almost hal$-witted/ com#letel& irres#onsible and s#ending a lot o$ time in #rison/ where his health is $ar better loo ed a$ter than outside: on coming out with restored health he is read& to beget man& $urther children =uite #romiscuousl&/ and these %#roblem children% are then beauti$ull& cared $or b& the various charitable societies and agencies/ until such time as the& have grown old enough to carr& on the good wor $or themselves. 7t is this #arasitic t&#e that is at #resent most $avoured in our countr&: i$ nothing is done/ a #oint will come where the #arasite will ill its host b& e2haustion and then o$ course itsel$ #erish miserabl& and contem#tibl& through having no one to su##ort it. ...% - 91 9ot sur#risingl&/ C. G. Darwin never contem#lated the #arasitic attributes o$ him and his $ellow elite. &on!lusion .he $inal #art in this series will e2amine the di$$iculties in controlling the si<e o$ the world #o#ulation as described in C. G. Darwin's The Next Million Years. !1" Huotes $rom Charles Galton Darwin/ The Next Million Years '1952+. !2" Huotes $rom 3ertrand Russell/ The Impact of Science on Societ '1952+. 7039 >-?15-1>9>*-I

4(er/Po ulation an# the *an!tity of Life

The Next Million Years Part ; Brent Jessop - Knowledge Driven Revolution.com March 31, 2008

Can the si<e o$ the world #o#ulation be #ro#erl& managed b& a #ower$ul world government4 ;re we doomed to multi#l& until the Ealthusian brea s are a##lied4 ;re we $orever going to have a %starving margin% within our societies4 .hese =uestions are answered b& an elite. Charles Galton Darwin's 1952 boo The Next Million Years !1" attem#ts to give a general outline o$ the %$uture histor&% o$ man ind. C.G. Darwin '1(()-19*2+ was an ,nglish #h&sicist and grandson o$ Charles Darwin o$ evolutionar& $ame. Des#ite being concerned about the over-#o#ulation o$ the world he had $our sons and one daughter with his wi$e Katharine -ember. .he h&#ocris& o$ this ma& seem odd/ but the concern about over#o#ulation onl& re$ers to in$erior breeds o$ humans and not su#erior breeds li e himsel$ and his lineage. C.G. Darwin was a long time member and eventual #resident o$ the ,ugenic 0ociet& '1951-59+ which re#resented the belie$ s&stem held among man& o$ the #olitical/ scienti$ic and aristocratic elites o$ his da& and the #resent. Worl# Wi#e Limitation of Po ulation *i1e 5rom The Next Million Years.

%7 have alread& shown the short-term di$$iculties which seem to ma e it sure that no s#ontaneous #rocess will avoid the menace o$ over-#o#ulation. 7s it #ossible that the statesmen o$ all countries/ #erceiving these dangers/ should combine together to ma e and en$orce a world-wide #olic& o$ limitation4 7t would have to be world-wide/ because i$ an& nation were recalcitrant/ its #o#ulation would increase relativel& to the rest/ so that sooner or later it would dominate the others. .hat the #ros#ects o$ such a world-wide #olic& are not good is witnessed b& the total $ailure hitherto achieved in the $ar easier #roblem o$ militar& disarmament. Aow would the nations settle the res#ective numbers admissible $or their #o#ulations4 .he onl& #rinci#le that would have a chance o$ acce#tance would be to "ase the num"ers on existin% o ulations/ and then the =uestion arises wh& one #articular set o$ #ro#ortions between the various countries should be $ro<en constant $or all time. 0ince the aim o$ the #olic& is to retain world-wide #ros#erit&/ e(ery sin%le !ountry woul# "e fa!e# with the ro"lem of takin% !are of its own limitation/ and/ as has been seen/ this would not come about s#ontaneousl&. ,ven i$ a government could devise an e$$ective method/ it would be an odious tas $or the rulers to have to en$orce it/ and there can be no doubt the& would o$ten evade doing so. @ith the best o$ goodwill/ it would be hard to en$orce the limitation because o$ the gradualness o$ the increase/ $or the rulers could alwa&s e2cuse themselves b& the argument that the slight illegal increase o$ this &ear was accidental and would ne2t &ear be com#ensated b& a corres#onding decrease/ so that action might be #ost#oned/ and sometimes it would be #ost#oned too long. 7t is clear $rom all this that the world #olic& would need to be su##orted b& international sanctions/ and the onl& ultimate sanction must be war. -resent methods o$ war$are would not be nearl& murderous enough to reduce #o#ulations seriousl&/ and even so the& would ta e a nearl& e=ual toll o$ victims $rom the uno$$ending nations. 0o a$ter the war the =uestion would arise o$ how to reduce the e2cess #o#ulation o$ the o$$ending nation. 7t is not #ossible to be humane in this/ but the most humane method would seem to be in$anticide together with the sterili<ation o$ a $raction o$ the adult #o#ulation. 0uch sterili<ation could now be done without the brutal methods #ractised in the #ast/ but it would certainl& be vehementl& resisted.% !em#hasis mine" 8 1?( 3ertrand Russell in his 1952 boo The Impact of Science of Societ !2" o$$ers a ver& similar situation but #ro#osed that this international authorit& should have total control o$ the $ood su##l&. 5rom The Impact of Science on Societ 6 %.o deal with this #roblem !increasing #o#ulation and decreasing $ood su##lies" it will be necessar& to $ind wa&s o$ #reventing an increase in world #o#ulation. 7$ this is to be done otherwise than b& wars/ #estilence/ and $amines/ it will demand a #ower$ul international authorit&. This authority shoul# #eal out the worl#'s foo# to the (arious nations in ro ortion to their o ulation at the time o$ the establishment o$ the authorit&. 7$ an& nation subse=uentl& increased its #o#ulation it shoul# not on that a!!ount re!ei(e any more foo#. .he motive $or not increasing #o#ulation would there$ore be ver& com#elling. @hat method o$ #reventing an increase might be #re$erred should be le$t to each state to decide.% !em#hasis mine" - 12?

5nfor!ement of Po ulation &ontrol an# the De(elo ment of &ree#s of 7esistan!e Dne o$ the #roblems antici#ated b& Charles Galton Darwin with the strict en$orcement o$ #o#ulation control is that o$ the develo#ment o$ an o##osition creed. %,ven worse di$$iculties/ however/ would arise than those 7 have so $ar contem#lated. 7 have been assuming that the #olic& o$ limitation was acce#ted b& the maBorit& on broad rational grounds/ but it is =uite certain that in a ver& short time it would encounter $anatical o##osition. ,ven though the #rocreative instinct has not the violence o$ the se2ual instinct/ &et it is an emotion #ossessed b& man& #eo#le/ and as such it will be #articularl& liable to get incor#orated in creeds. .here are alread& creeds that maintain the wrong$ulness o$ birth-control/ though there is at #resent no ver& strong emotion associated with them. 'ut if there were to "e any enfor!ement of "irth/!ontrol "y authority$ it is !ertain that many new !ree#s woul# s rin% u which would regard the #ractice as sin$ul/ and the tenet would be held with an enthusiasm not to be overcome b& the e$$orts o$ rational #ersuasion. There are many !ree#s$ whi!h we hol# to "e unwise$ whi!h we !an a#mit an# lea(e alone$ "e!ause their effe!ts are mainly to #ama%e their "elie(ers) This !oul# not "e one of them$ sin!e the "elie(ers woul# automati!ally %ain an un#ue share of the next %eneration. -ersecution would be the onl& recourse against such a creed/ and the massacre o$ the innocents or the blood o$ the mart&rs would water the seed o$ the $aith. 7t is not o$ course true/ as is sometimes maintained b& religious devotees/ that #ersecution alwa&s $ails to e2tinguish a $aith - $or e2am#le the ;rian heres& was much #ersecuted b& the orthodo2 church/ and there are no ;rians now - but there is no doubt that #ersecution is a great encourager/ and it is $airl& sure that not all such creeds would be e2tinguished. Dnce again the e$$ort to #roduce com$ortable #ros#erit& would call $or a brutalit& that is Bust the ind o$ thing it is tr&ing to avoid.% !em#hasis mine" - 15> Eore on the im#ortance o$ creeds here. The *tar(in% Mar%in an# the *an!tity of Human Life %.he central $eature o$ human histor& must alwa&s be the #ressure o$ #o#ulation. Ean/ the wild animal/ will obe& the law o$ li$e and will tend to multi#l& until he is limited b& the means o$ subsistence. .his is the normal condition o$ the world/ and it carries the conse=uence that the $inal chec on #o#ulation is b& starvation. .here will be a $raction o$ humanit&/ a star(in% mar%in/ who have got to die sim#l& because not enough $ood can be grown to ee# them alive. .he death ma& be directl& due to intermittent $amines/ or to diseases caused b& malnutrition/ or it ma& be due to war$are: $or when a countr& is d&ing o$ starvation and sees/ or thin s it sees/ a neighbouring countr& with #lent& to eat/ it would be be&ond most human nature to acce#t certain #assive death instead o$ #ossible active death. .he central =uestion $or humanit& is the #roblem o$ the starving margin.% !em#hasis in original" - 1)> %.he social sense o$ an& communit&/ and its immediate #ractical interest/ will not tolerate li(in% in !onta!t with the sufferin%s of its own star(in% mar%in...% !em#hasis mine" 1)1

%7n connection with the recent wonder$ul advances in medical science/ this is the #lace to mention a matter that will ver& soon indeed be o$ immediate im#ortance. 0ince in the normal condition o$ the world there will be a margin o$ ever& #o#ulation on the verge o$ starvation/ it seems li el& that there will ha(e to "e a re(ision of the #o!trine of the san!tity of the in#i(i#ual human life. 7n the old da&s the doctors were under the obligation o$ doing all the& could to #reserve an& li$e/ though the& had no great success in their e$$orts: now it is hardl& too much to sa& that most diseases have come under control/ or an&how to Budge b& recent #rogress most o$ them soon will. 3ut is the world the better $or having a large number o$ health& #eo#le d&ing o$ starvation/ rather than letting them die o$ malaria4 Dne o$ the Busti$ied boasts o$ recent times has been the great decrease that medicine has made in in$ant mortalit&. @hereas in the old da&s a mother might bear ten children and have onl& two survive/ now she ma& bear onl& three and she will be regarded as var& unluc & i$ all do not survive. 3ut the di$$icult& in the world is going to be that the number o$ #eo#le born is too great $or the $ood su##lies/ so that a $raction must die an&how: ma& it not be better that the& should die in in$anc&4 The truth is that all our resent !o#es a"out the san!tity of human life are "ase# on the se!urity of life as it is at resent$ an# on!e that is %one they will ine(ita"ly "e re(ise#$ an# the re(ision will ro"a"ly sho!k most of our resent o inion.% !em#hasis mine" - 1(5 !1" Huotes $rom Charles Galton Darwin/ The Next Million Years '1952+. !2" Huotes $rom 3ertrand Russell/ The Impact of Science on Societ '1952+. 7039 >-?15-1>9>*-I 9ote6 7 $irst heard about this boo $rom tal s given b& ;lan @att at Cutting .hrough .he Eatri2.com/ an individual well worth loo ing into.