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NOVEMBER 2012 ELECTION RESULTS

Jan. 31, 2013 SHARE THIS INFORMATION WITH EVERYONE Number 13-1
10 Takeaways f r om t he 2012
El ec t i on
by Robert Watson, Ph.D.
1. The more the things change
The 57th quadrennial presidential election is
in the bag and, after what was the longest, most
expensive, and nastiest campaign in history, in a
way we find ourselves exactly where we were before
the campaign. Obama is still in the White House,
the Republicans have a narrow hold on the House
(234 to 200, a change from the last Congress: 241
to 191), the Democrats/Independents still have
an advantage in the Senate (55 to 45, up from
53 to 47)a few seats are still to be decided. The
congressional leadership in both parties and both
houses remains essentially unchanged, and the
bitter partisan divide will continue to be a key
obstacle to governing. Thus, many of the same
challenges remain, as is evident as the nation
stares down the barrel of the looming fiscal cliff.
2. Demographics and mathematics
Obama won for several reasons, but one of the
overarching themes of this election was the
impact of demographics and mathematics on the
election. The President carried just about every
major demographic group except white males
and southern Evangelicals. For instance, Obama
won 93% of the African American vote, 80% of
the Asian vote, 71% of the Hispanic vote (80% of
the Puerto Rican vote) and even managed to win
nearly half of the staunchly Republican Cuban
American community in Miami. By a comfortable
majority, he took the youth vote, womens vote, gay
vote, and so on. Quite simply, there arent enough
conservative white males to get to 270 electoral
votes. The nation is changing demographically
but the Republicans campaigned like it was 1950
in the South.
3. Party realignment
Every so often in history one of the parties (or a
president) manages to put together a governing
coalition of demographic groups and other targeted
populations such as labor, gun owners, and so on.
If the Democrats do it right, they should be in the
midst of stitching together a majority coalition
that should give them an electoral advantage for
several years. As was mentioned above, they won
nearly every major demographic and all but one of
the swing states.
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4. Anti-party
The old truism is that, to win a campaign, you
cant just give voters a reason to vote against your
opponent. Rather, voters must also be given a
reason to vote for you. The Republican Party has
become an anti party. Except for tax cuts for
the rich, the glue that holds together their base
is not what they stand for but all of the types of
individuals, policies, and beliefs they dislike. Fear,
hate, and paranoia are not the basis for governing
and a party that rejects science (the existence of
climate change, evolution, etc.), family planning,
healthcare, gay rights and marriage equality,
the existence of legitimate rape, the necessity
of infrastructure, and so on is poised to win
elections only in the 19th century. Such was the
situation that candidate Jon Huntsman tweeted
in desperation: I believe in evolution and trust
scientists on global warming. Call me crazy.
5. Republican civil war
So, there is a battle for the heart and soul of the
GOP going on. The GOPs positions during the
2012 campaign and the ugly rhetoric of so many
of their candidates against immigration, womens
issues, healthcare, and so on, alienated the
majority of Americans. The simple, mathematical
reality is that they cannot win outside of Dixie
without changing their positions and dialing back
their rhetoric. Yet, many Republican leaders have
claimed Romney wasnt conservative enough and
comments by Romney and other GOP leaders
after the election suggest they are still tone deaf.
Stay tuned as moderate elements within the party
duke it out with Tea Party extremists.
6. Romney as a gift
Despite the aforementioned points, the Demo-
crats were fortunate that Obama faced Rom-
ney and not a Rea-
gan or Eisenhower.
Romneys constant
gaffes stayed in the
headlines, kept his
campaign off-mes-
sage, and kept most
Americans (even his
supporters) scratch-
ing their heads. There was no shortage of bizarre
comments the infamous dismissal of 47% of the
country, Im not concerned about the very poor,
I like being able to fire people, binders full of
women, I bet you $10,000, corporations are
people too, my friend of course they are, and
many more, along with alarming inaccuracies in
his understanding of international affairs includ-
ing his comments during his international tour
late in his campaign and his announcement that
Syria and Iran share a border (they dont) and it
is Irans only route to the sea (it isnt).
Moreover, presidential campaigns are, at the
risk of sounding flippant, to a degree, popularity
contests. We like to get to know our presidential
candidates. Yet, Romneys constant flip-flops on
the issues made it difficult for anyone to know if
he stood for anything, much less have a sense of
him. Romney was truly Etch-a-sketch Mitt, a
man who was pro-choice and pro-life, opposed to
the kind of healthcare reform he earlier promoted
in Massachusetts, and was both for and against
any number of issues including the death penalty,
guns, ending the war in Iraq, the economic
stimulus, and so on. So extensive were his flips,
that he changed his position within and between
debates!
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7. Floridas ballot
The leadership in the legislature filled the 2012
ballot with 11 amendments that were unnecessary
(the measures should have been dealt with in
legislative session and not by constitutional
amendment), convoluted (they were written in a
way that voters had trouble understanding them),
and designed to dupe the voters. Fortunately,
most of them failed. The most shameful among
them, including a symbolic vote against Obamas
healthcare reform, an effort to pack the Supreme
Court and shift the balance of powers in Tallahassee,
the ban on abortion, and a measure to weaken the
separation of church and state, all failed by wide
margins. Score one for the voters!
8. The circus
The Democrats also benefitted from the
Republican primary field. After conservative
darlings Sarah Palin and Donald Trump declined
to run for president, various unusual candidates
took turns at the top of the polls, embarrassing the
party and harming their chances in November.
The likes of Michelle Bachmann, Rick Perry,
Herman Cain, Rick Santorum, and Newt Gingrich
constitute the worst field of candidates in recent
memory.
It is doubtful the GOP will repeat the many
mistakes from 2012.
9. Year of the woman?
There are now 20 women in the U.S. Senate, which
is a record!
10. Election reform
If one thing is crystal clear from this election it
is that we sorely need election reform, not only
nationally but at the state and local levels as well.
This issue resonates loudest here in Florida, where
our system of elections continues to be a punch-line
for late-night comedians. At the same time, voters
must hold the governor and Republican legislature
accountable for a series of alarming actions, from
failing to invest in elections, to refusing to extend
voting hours, to limiting early voting, all under the
guise of a campaign to stamp out an alleged crisis
of voter fraud (which is actually virtually non-
existent). The real voting fraud in this election
cycle was the efforts to disenfranchise voters by
the governor and leadership in Tallahassee. ##
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Edi t or : Dan I saac son
Assistant Editors: Robin Blanchard, Allen Robbins,
Nancy Morse, Debra Oberlander
Research: Roger Messenger
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2012 El ec t i on Resul t s
Pages 4-6 show the outstanding results
produced by the Democrats of Palm Beach
County. Note how many blue backgrounds
there are vs. the number of reds! (Gray
backgrounds = non-partisan winners,
most of whom also were supported by
Democrats.)
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2012 PBC El ec t i on Resul t s
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