USA Eco Project
USA Eco Project
Economics Project
paid family leave as a legal right, with the other being the Papua New
Guinea, Suriname and Liberia. In 2009, the United States had the third
highest labor productivity per person in the world, behind Luxembourg
and Norway. It was the fourth in productivity per hour, behind those two
countries and the Netherlands.
Income, poverty and wealth
Americans have household income and the employee the highest average
among OECD countries and in 2007 had a median household income in
the second row. The real income of the median household Census Bureau
was $ 50,502 in 2011, a decrease of $ 51,144 in 2010. The Global Food
Security Index ranked number one for US food affordability and the overall
safety of food in March 2013. Average Americans more than twice the
surface area per unit per person as residents of the European Union, and
of all EU nations. For 2013, the United Nations Development Program
ranked 5th US among 187 countries in the Human Development Index and
28th in the Inequality-adjusted HDI (IHDI).
National income
The net national income (NNI) is a term used in the economy in the
national income accounting. It can be defined as the net national product
(NNP) minus indirect taxes. Net national income includes the income of
households, businesses and government.
It may be expressed as:
NNI = C + I + G + (NX) income + net external factors - indirect taxes made capital depreciation
Where C = Consumption, i = investment, G = government expenditure,
NX = net exports (exports minus imports)
This formula uses the expenditure method of accounting of national
income.
When adjusted net national income to the exhaustion of natural resources,
it is called Adjusted net national income expressed as below:
NNI * = C + I + G + NX + Net foreign income Factor - Indirect taxes - the
depreciation of manufactured capital - depletion of natural resources
Natural Resources refers to non-critical natural capital such as minerals.
NNI * does not take into account critical natural capital. Examples are air,
water, land, etc.
United states gdp
The gross domestic product (GDP) in the US was worth $ 16.8 trillion in
2013. The value of the US GDP represents 27.10 percent of the global
economy. GDP in the United States averaged $ 6,145.56 billion from 1960
to 2013, reaching a record high of USD 16 800 billion in 2013 and a record
high of 520.53 billion USD in 1960. The World Bank reports
Year
GDP % Growth
2004
3.73
2005
2.84
2006
3.24
2007
0.02
2008
-2.35
2009
-2.56
2010
4.27
2011
-0.72
2004
3.73
Economic Indicators
Markets
Last
Referenc
e
Previous
Range
Frequenc
y
Currency
88.31
Nov/14
88.31
71.58 : 165
Daily
2.31
Nov/14
2.31
1.4 : 15.82
Daily
Stock Market
17810
Nov/14
17810
41.2 : 17810
Daily
GDP
Last
Referenc
e
Previous
Range
Frequenc
y
GDP
16800
Dec/13
16800
521 : 16800
Yearly
3.5
percent
Aug/14
3.5
-10 : 16.9
Quarterly
2.3
percent
Aug/14
2.3
-4.1 : 13.4
Quarterly
16190
USD Billion
May/14
16190
2096 : 16190
Quarterly
45863
USD
Dec/13
45863
15469 : 45863
Yearly
Employed Persons
147283
Oct/14
Monthly
Unemployed Persons
8995
Oct/14
8995
Monthly
percent
Index points
USD Billion
Thousand
Thousand
1596 : 15382
Markets
Last
Referenc
e
Previous
Range
Frequenc
y
Currency
88.31
Nov/14
88.31
71.58 : 165
Daily
2.31
Nov/14
2.31
1.4 : 15.82
Daily
Stock Market
17810
Nov/14
17810
41.2 : 17810
Daily
GDP
Last
Referenc
e
Previous
Range
Frequenc
y
Job Vacancies
4762
Thousand
Sep/14
4762
2134 : 5771
Monthly
Productivity
107
Index Points
Aug/14
107
27.55 : 107
Quarterly
Wages
10.34
Oct/14
10.34
9.88 : 10.41
Monthly
Labour Costs
105
Index Points
Aug/14
105
17.12 : 105
Quarterly
Population
317
Million
Dec/13
317
76.09 : 317
Yearly
Job Offers
4735
Sep/14
4735
2146 : 5273
Monthly
Minimum Wages
7.25
Jan/14
7.25
0.25 : 7.25
Yearly
Prices
Last
Referenc
e
Previous
Range
Frequenc
y
Inflation Rate
1.7
Oct/14
1.7
-15.8 : 23.7
Monthly
Oct/14
-1.77 : 1.81
Monthly
238
Oct/14
238
23.51 : 238
Monthly
1.8
Oct/14
1.8
0 : 13.6
Monthly
239
Index Points
Oct/14
239
28.5 : 239
Monthly
GDP Deflator
109
Index Points
Aug/14
109
13.49 : 109
Quarterly
percent
Index points
USD
Hundreds
USD
percent
percent
Index Points
percent
Markets
Last
Referenc
e
Previous
Range
Frequenc
y
Currency
88.31
Nov/14
88.31
71.58 : 165
Daily
2.31
Nov/14
2.31
1.4 : 15.82
Daily
Stock Market
17810
Nov/14
17810
41.2 : 17810
Daily
GDP
Last
Referenc
e
Previous
Range
Frequenc
y
Producer Prices
111
Oct/14
111
100 : 111
Monthly
1.5
Oct/14
1.5
-6.86 : 19.57
Monthly
Export Prices
131
Index Points
Oct/14
131
82.4 : 135
Monthly
Import Prices
136
Index Points
Oct/14
136
75 : 148
Monthly
Food Inflation
3.1
Oct/14
3.1
-0.47 : 18.68
Monthly
Trade
Last
Referenc
e
Previous
Range
Frequenc
y
Balance of Trade
-43030
Sep/14
-43030
-67823 : 1946
Monthly
Exports
195590
USD Million
Sep/14
Monthly
Imports
238620
USD Million
Sep/14
Monthly
Current Account
-98500
May/14
-98500
-216063 : 9957
Quarterly
-2.3
Dec/13
-2.3
-6 : 0.2
Yearly
Terms of Trade
97.27
Aug/14
97.27
91.05 : 167
Quarterly
Foreign Direct
Investment
-117086
Feb/14
-117086 :
117086 140759
Quarterly
Gold Reserves
8133
May/14
8133
Quarterly
percent
Index points
Index Points
percent
percent
USD Million
USD Million
percent
Index Points
USD
Million
Tonnes
8133 : 8149
Markets
Last
Referenc
e
Previous
Range
Frequenc
y
Currency
88.31
Nov/14
88.31
71.58 : 165
Daily
2.31
Nov/14
2.31
1.4 : 15.82
Daily
Stock Market
17810
Nov/14
17810
41.2 : 17810
Daily
GDP
Last
Referenc
e
Previous
Range
Frequenc
y
8648
Aug/14
8648
3983 : 10044
Monthly
Government
Last
Referenc
e
Previous
Range
Frequenc
y
Government Budget
-2.8
percent of GDP
Sep/14
-2.8
-12.1 : 4.6
Yearly
Government Debt to
GDP
102
percent
Dec/13
102
31.7 : 122
Yearly
Government Budget
Value
-121713
Oct/14
-231677 :
121713 189796
Monthly
Government Spending
2913
Aug/14
2913
Quarterly
percent
Index points
BBL/D/1K
USD
Million
USD Billion
557 : 3113
Before the financial crisis, the typical central bank conducted monetary policy by controlling
a nominal interest rate in the short term - usually a charge rate in interbank or other wholesale
money market operations. In the United States, as in many other countries, this control was
achieved by manipulating the supply of monetary liabilities of the central bank. Before the
crisis, the relatively stable demand for interest-sensitive reserves by US banks to the range of
regulations surrounding the use of these balances. Reservations required by law were small
and without interest earned on reserves, banks sought to save on excess reserves. Against this
incentive to minimize reserve assets, banks demand was supported by the use of reserves in
settlement of interbank obligations and by the desire to avoid costly overdrafts.
The Fed has managed the supply of reserves by purchases and sales of US Treasury securities
- or repo transactions in such securities - so that the overnight interest rate on the interbank
lending market stocks hit target of the federal Open Market Committee. The FOMC in turn
adjusted its target in response to changes in economic conditions and the economic outlook in
order to achieve low and stable inflation in a manner consistent with its mandate to Congress
(which also includes the pursuit of maximum employment and moderate long-term interest
rates).
Unconventional policy
In the wake of the financial crisis and the recession that followed the Fed's policy has
deviated in a number of ways to approach this classic before the crisis - as well as the policies
of many other central banks. During the period from late 2007 to 2008, as the crisis unfolded,
the Fed has conducted a number of emergency lending that exceeded the scope of previous
precedents. At first, these loans have not been allowed to influence the stock of Federal
Reserve monetary liabilities. This necessary compensation of US Treasury securities sales
Fed's portfolio to drain reserves and avoid driving the interbank interest rate below the target
of the Fed. These lending changed the composition of the Fed's asset portfolio without
changing the monetary liabilities of the Fed, and constituted "the credit policy," not monetary
policy. These loans raises important issues related to the independence of central banks and
their role in the financial system.
As the economy weakened in the fall of 2008, the Fed led the interbank interest rate to near
zero. In general, the unconventional monetary policy is associated with the extended period
of time since then, during which the Fed's interest rate target was essentially as low as it can
go - in d other words, the "zero lower bound." The ability of banks and other members of the
public to hold currency limit the ability of the central bank to implement a nominal target less
than zero interest. But in an extremely economy low, the real interest rate may be appropriate
negative a central bank that has credibility of low and stable inflation. - so that inflation
expectations are reasonably well anchored - will struggle to make the rate of real interest plus
a little negative.
One strategy to the zero bound is to seek a lower real interest rate by designing an increase in
expected inflation, above the rate of the central bank would be contrary to target. Away from
its inflation target for a time, a central bank may be able to support economic growth by
lowering the real interest rate, although being only able to reduce the nominal interest rate
below scratch. Central banks operating at the lower zero bound have generally avoided this
approach, and for good reason.
In the US, for example, the process of achieving credibility of low inflation was difficult and
expensive, taking the best part of two decades. This experience suggests that engineering
medium-term changes in inflation expectations would be very difficult to implement and
create precedents that pose longer-term risks to the credibility of the central bank.
Forward direction
Putting aside the strategies for change in expected inflation, the Fed and other central banks
to the zero bound have focused on long-term interest rates. They tried to strengthen the
sensitive areas of interest by reducing long-term rates at lower levels. Two major strategies
have been employed to try to reduce long-term rates: A provides "guide before" affect public
beliefs about the future course of policy, including short-term rates, the other is based on
direct purchases of long-term assets.
The Fed has deployed a number of approaches to communicate its intentions and
expectations for future short-term rates in recent years. The FOMC started including
qualitative language in its policy statements characterizing the period during which it should
exceptionally low interest rates are appropriate: Initially, it was "a while" (December 2008
and January 2009) then "an extended period" (March 2009-June 2011). In August 2011, the
Committee focused its guidance by specifying the time within which an increase in the
federal funds rate seemed unlikely - and then moving again in future that date several times.
Finally, in December 2012, the Committee has replaced this guide before based on the date
with a threshold for unemployment, saying that "exceptionally low range for the federal
funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as the rate of unemployment remains above 6
percent inflation between one and two years ahead should be no more than half a percentage
point above the 2 percent of the long-term objective of the commission, and long-term
inflation expectations remain well anchored. "This guidance shape of the front still in place
today.
These communication efforts have generally been designed to ease financial conditions by
pushing the dates on which market participants believe short-term rates are likely to increase.
These communications by the central bank, but inevitably face a conundrum. Forward
guidance is effective when it changes the model public perception of behavior of the central
bank in response to incoming data -. "Reaction function" in essence, the central bank But
there is always the possibility that the public will interpret the forward direction in terms of
the future development of the economy in which the central bank reacts. The public may
think that, under its current structure of behavior, the central bank is expected to be low rates
guaranteed for a longer period because they expect the economy is weaker. In this case, the
orientation of the front could have the paradoxical effect of reducing the current economic
activity, reducing expectations about the level of future economic activity.7 It can be difficult
to craft advice before in a way that definitely separates these two interpretations. The use by
the FOMC numerical thresholds is partly an attempt to clarify the orientation of the front on
short-term interest rate is about the Commission's reaction function, not its economic
outlook .
Ideally, a central bank can understand that communications concerning future reactions of
incoming economic data. Forward-looking Information concerning reaction schemes of the
central bank often takes the form of criteria for particular decisions, as in the case of the
FOMC thresholds for raising interest rates or the conditions in which the asset purchase
program indefinite will probably be awarded.
Design such conditional orientation involves tradeoffs, however. Credibility requires
consistency, over time, between the statements of a central bank and its real after. The
statements of the central bank will have more immediate effect on public expectations more
they are seen as limiting future choices of the central bank. Yet there are probably
circumstances, ex post, in which the central bank feels constrained by past statements.
Yielding to the temptation to deny implicitly reworking the decision criteria or citing
unforeseen economic developments may have short-term appeal but widely perceived
discrepancies between actual behavior and foreshadows inevitably reduce the faith people
place in future statements of the central bank . So, central banks face a trade-off ex ante, and
between the short-term value of the exercise of the discretion and the ability to communicate
effectively and credibly in future
Recent fiscal policy
In a Financial Times interview, Blackrock Chief Executive Larry Fink said he believes it is
time for the Fed to move forward. From the interview:
"We have a central bank that did not agree, we have structural unemployment. Factories that
employed thousands now employ 200. For the United States above-trend growth, it must be
on the government not the policy of the central bank policy. "
The company has produced what he calls Yellen index. This is an exclusive measure that
examines employment and inflation indicators Fed chairman said in the past are important to
her to predict what it might choose to do in the future. Regarding monitoring, we believe that
for the first time monetary policy did what he will do. A 0% funds rate is not significant in
terms of more transmission mechanism in the economy. Second, it is expected that for the
first time, student loans, housing, discussion of infrastructure will begin to see a movement
there for the first time in a while.
They are right in the abstract that monetary policy can do some things, and it is for
governments to do other things through the budgets and tax law. But in the United States
since 2010, things have not happened. The United States does not follow a fiscal policy more.
They do not spend makes laws to help or change anything about the country and go penalty
laws, once a year, or a wildly inefficient to keep any kind of trouble while working.
Infrastructure is a concern and certainly there is a long list of infrastructure projects that need
funding. The recent highway bill has only barely extended funding for existing projects. Not
raising money from people who use the highways. However, depending on the version of the
bill, he is the president, an independent accounting stunt that allows companies to temporarily
less money in their pension plans, increasing the taxable income.
Recent monetary policy
The main innovation after the crisis in the US is a long time with the interest rate short-term
policy to near 0%. This was combined with the payment of interest on reserves, an increase in
the size of the Fed balance sheet, a radical change in the composition of the assets on the
balance sheet, increasing the use of forward guidance and a change in the interpretation of the
dual mandate.
Subsequently, the FOMC has apparently become much more militant. There seems to be a
consensus among its participants, including doctoral economists with high-level research
issues are becoming increasingly important, the Fed can and must make the world a better
place. To reflect on monetary policy to the zero lower bound (the nominal interest rate in the
short term), it is necessary to provide a rationale for why it may be optimal for a central bank
to choose the zero target rate the overnight. In the new simple Keynesian models such as
Werning, which is done by assuming that the discount factor of the representative agent is
high for a certain period of time. Then, the real interest rate should be low optimally, but at
the zero bound the real interest rate is too high, given the price rigidity. With this model, the
central bank would reduce more than the lower limit of zero, but the prevailing attitude is to
make promises about future actions of central banks. In addition, these promises can not be
consistent time, so the commitment of the central bank is essential to the political work.
In a New Keynesian model, it is clear how forward guidance. He will tell us when the central
bank should choose a short-term nominal interest rate target to zero, when the takeoff
(departure terminal of the lower zero) should occur, and that the nominal interest rate target
should be away from the zero bound. The path followed by the exogenous shocks to the
economy determines all these things. In practice, we do not know how the model is, we can
not observe shocks, and even if we believe that the model that will not allow us to identify
the shocks. Thus, the orientation of the front should be loosely specified in terms of
something we monitor effectively. Ultimately, the FOMC has chosen the unemployment rate.
Probably the key element in the novel post-financial crisis US monetary policy is
Quantitative Easing (QE), and the associated increase in the size of the Fed's balance sheet.
Fed officials want to convince us that QE works and they have tended to minimize the
experimental nature of its programs. Fed officials say that QE works just like conventional
monetary policy. Other than the fact that QE has its effect by reducing the yields on long-term
bonds rather than the decline in short rates, demand is that the monetary policy transmission
mechanism is more or less similar.
Finally, even if the Fed is now borrowing short and lending long, massive way, we should not
worry if the Fed starts to earn negative profits. Economically, it does not matter. What matters
is the consolidated balance sheet of the Fed and the US Treasury, and it is immaterial whether
the Fed pays interest of the private sector in the reserves or the US Treasury pays the interest
of the private sector on the public debt.
Perhaps the most important sustainable change in policy out of the Bernanke era is a greater
tendency of the Fed to focus on short-term goals rather than long-term goals. Indeed, the
concern of the Fed to the state of the labor market, as evidenced by recent public statements
by Fed officials may have evolved into a belief that the Fed may have long-term effects on
participation in the labor market and the employment / population ratio. This seems to be
supported by theory or empirical evidence. In addition, it is possible that two or three more
years with the Fed's key interest rate near zero lower limit will not help to solve all the ills of
the labor market, nor does it increase the rate of inflation, low nominal interest rates (such as
in Japan since the early 1990s) typically lead to lower long-term inflation. If the Fed is well
below its inflation target of 2% for a period of time, it is not clear that would be so
dangerous, but at least, it undermines the credibility of the Fed.
Balance of payments
The US trade deficits have been in compliance since 1976 due to strong imports of oil and
consumer products. In recent years, the biggest trade deficits were recorded with China,
Japan, Germany and Mexico. United States recorded trade surpluses with Hong Kong,
Netherlands, United Arab Emirates and Australia.
In November 2014, the budget deficit fell by 58% to $ 56.8 billion compared with a
difference $ 182.5 billion a year earlier than spending fell and revenue increased. In this
month, revenues totaled $ 191.4 billion, up 4.8 percent from the same period a year ago while
spending amounted to $ 248.3 billion, down 21 8 percent.
Fiscal performance has been affected by differences in the timing that some payments came
out in October this year instead of November.
Current account
The current account deficit of US net measure of transactions between the US and the rest of
the world in goods, services, primary income (compensation of income and investment) and
the secondary income (current transfers) -decreased to $ 98.5 billion (preliminary) in the
second quarter of 2014 of $ 102.1 billion (revised) in the first quarter. The deficit decreased
to 2.3 percent in current dollars of gross domestic product (GDP) of 2.4 percent in the first
quarter. The decrease in the current account deficit is largely due to a decrease in the highincome deficit. In addition, the increased surpluses on services and primary income. These
changes were partially offset by an increase in the deficit on goods.
Merchandise exports increased to $ 408.8 billion from $ 399.5 million. Exports increased in
five of the six major categories of final goods general use. The largest increases were in
industrial supplies and materials; capital goods, with the exception of the automobile; and
motor vehicles, parts and engines. Most of the increase in industrial supplies and materials
reflects an increase in exports of oil and products, much of that in oil. The increase in capital
goods, except automotive reflects an increase in exports of civil aircraft. The increase in
motor vehicles, parts and engines was largely due to an increase in exports of passenger cars.
Non-monetary gold fell.
Merchandise imports increased to 598.0 billion from $ 581.9 billion. Imports increased in
five of the six major categories of final goods general use. The largest increases were in
motor vehicles, parts and engines; capital goods, with the exception of the automobile; and
consumer goods, excluding food and automotive. The increase in motor vehicles, parts and
engines was largely due to an increase in passenger car imports. Much of the increase in
capital goods, with the exception of the car was due to higher imports of other industrial
machinery and computers. The increase in consumer goods, except food and automotive
primarily reflects the increase in imports of durable goods, most of which was in cell phones.
Services
The services surplus increased to $ 58.9 billion in the second quarter to $ 57.8 billion in the
first quarter.
Exports of services increased to $ 177.4 billion from $ 174.7 million. Eight of the nine major
categories of services has increased. The largest increases were in travel (for any purpose,
including education) -much of it in "Other personal travel" -and in transportation, which
includes freight and ports and passenger fares.
Imports of services increased to $ 118.5 billion $ 116.8 million. Six of the nine major
categories of services has increased. The largest increase has been in Travel (for any purpose,
including education).
Primary income
The surplus on the primary income increased to $ 53.1 billion in the second quarter to $ 52.4
billion in the first quarter.
Investment income
Foreign income receipts on US securities of financial assets abroad rose to 200.0 billion from
$ 198.5 billion. The increase was explained by an increase in portfolio investment income
receipts. Much of the increase was in dividends on equity, which reflect to the US holdings of
foreign equities. The increase in income from portfolio investment was partly offset by lower
revenues from direct investment income, especially income from foreign subsidiaries
(American parents) in the wholesale and manufacturing.
Income payments to foreigners on US liabilities increased to $ 144.6 billion from $ 144.0
billion. This increase reflects the increase in payments of direct investment income and other
investment income payments. The increase in direct investment income was mainly explained
by income payments of US subsidiaries (of foreign parents) in manufacturing and petroleumrelated industries.
Compensation of employees
US net purchases of foreign equity and investment fund shares increased to $ 85.6 billion
from $ 81.3 billion. US net purchases of foreign debt securities increased to $ 99.3 billion $
19.4 billion US reflects, in part, the increase in net purchases of commercial paper and
corporate bonds and notes.
Other investment assets (currency and deposits, loans, insurance technical reserves, credit and
trade and advances)
US Sales of other investment assets abroad (sales of more acquisitions) was $ 42.2 billion in
the second quarter, a change in net purchases of $ 12.0 billion the first quarter. The shift in
net sales reflects a change in net foreign loan repayment (refund exceeding US foreignresident provision of loans).
Reserve assets
Transactions in US reserve assets increased holdings of $ 0.8 billion in the second quarter
after declining assets of $ 1.0 billion in the first quarter. The change reflects an increase in the
reserve position of the United States in the International Monetary Fund that the Fund has
drawn on the US credit through the New Arrangements to Borrow. Based on US credit is
exceeded net repayments of dollars by countries that had borrowed from the IMF in previous
quarters, the increase in the US reserve position.
US net birth liabilities excluding financial derivatives
US net foreign liabilities birth excluding financial derivatives was
$ 247.4 billion in the second quarter, against $ 239.8 billion in the first quarter.
Direct investment liabilities (equity instruments and debt) Net incurrence of liabilities of
foreign direct investment was $ 72.0 billion in the second quarter, a change in net debt
repayments of $ 121.7 billion in the first quarter. The transition to the net increase primarily
reflects a change to the investment of equity other than reinvestment of earnings of the first
quarter of divestment. In addition, transactions in instruments (business) debt shifted to the
net increase in net refund.
Liabilities related to portfolio investments (equities and investment funds units and debt
securities)
The net increase US investment portfolio liabilities to foreigners was 74.8 billion in the
second quarter, against $ 237.9 billion in the first quarter. Foreign net purchases of
Foreign Reserve
Foreign Exchange Reserves in the United States decreased to 136285 USD Million in
October of 2014 from 137054 USD Million in September of 2014. Foreign Exchange
Reserves in the United States averaged 51845.24 USD Million from 1957 until 2014,
reaching an all-time high of 153075 USD Million in September of 2012 and a record low of
12128 USD Million in August of 1971. Foreign Exchange Reserves in the United States is
reported by the Federal Reserve.
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What Fiscal Policy? The U.S. Doesn't Do It Any More - Businessweek. 2014. What Fiscal
Policy? The U.S. Doesn't Do It Any More - Businessweek. [ONLINE] Available
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http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/2014/q2/williamson.pdf.
United States Government Budget Value | 1954-2014 | Data | Chart | Calendar . 2014. United
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