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Massachusetts Institute of Technology

This document contains a tutorial for a course on probabilistic systems analysis. It includes examples of using Venn diagrams to represent events and calculates probabilities of events occurring based on coin flips and student characteristics. Specifically: - It gives examples of events represented symbolically and in Venn diagrams, then asks students to match descriptions of events to the representations. - It calculates the probabilities of different sequences occurring from three coin flips, such as the probability of all heads or two heads and one tails. - It determines the probability that a randomly selected student from a class is neither a genius nor likes chocolate, given information about the percentages of students that are geniuses, like chocolate, or are both.

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Héctor Flores
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242 views5 pages

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

This document contains a tutorial for a course on probabilistic systems analysis. It includes examples of using Venn diagrams to represent events and calculates probabilities of events occurring based on coin flips and student characteristics. Specifically: - It gives examples of events represented symbolically and in Venn diagrams, then asks students to match descriptions of events to the representations. - It calculates the probabilities of different sequences occurring from three coin flips, such as the probability of all heads or two heads and one tails. - It determines the probability that a randomly selected student from a class is neither a genius nor likes chocolate, given information about the percentages of students that are geniuses, like chocolate, or are both.

Uploaded by

Héctor Flores
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 5

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Department of Electrical Engineering & Computer Science


6.041/6.431: Probabilistic Systems Analysis
(Spring 2015)
Tutorial 1
February 6, 2015
1. Venn Diagrams
In this problem, you are given descriptions in words of certain events (e.g.,at least one of the
events A,B,C occurs). For each one of these descriptions, identify the correct symbolic description in terms of A,B,C from Events E1-E7 below. Also identify the correct description in terms
of regions (i.e., subsets of the sample space ) as depicted in the Venn diagram below. (For
example, Region 1 is the part of A outside of B and C.)

Figure 1: VENN DIAGRAMS

Symbolic descriptions:
Event E1: A B C
Event E2: (A B C)c
Event E3: A B C c
Event E4: B (B c C c )
Event E5: Ac B c C c
Event E6: (A B) (A C) (B C)
Event E7: (A B c C c ) (Ac B C c ) (Ac B c C)

Page 1 of 5

Massachusetts Institute of Technology


Department of Electrical Engineering & Computer Science
6.041/6.431: Probabilistic Systems Analysis
(Spring 2015)
Descriptions in words of certain events:
At least two of the events A, B, C occur.
At most two of the events A, B, C occur.
None of the events A, B, C occurs.
All three events A, B, C occur.
Exactly one of the events A, B, C occurs.
Events A and B occur, but C does not occur.
Either event B occurs or, if not, then C also does not occur.
2. Three Tosses of a Fair Coin
You flip a fair coin (i.e., the probability of obtaining Heads is 1/2) three times. Assume that all
sequences of coin flip results, of length 3, are equally likely. Determine the probability of each of
the following events.
Questions:
(a) HHH: 3 Heads:
(b) HT H: the sequence Heads, Tails, Heads:
(c) Any sequence with 2 Heads and 1 Tails (in any order):
(d) Any sequence in which the number of Heads is greater than or equal to the number of Tails:
3. Geniuses and Chocolate
Out of the students in a class, 60% are geniuses, 70% love chocolate, and 40% fall into both
categories. Determine the probability that a randomly selected student is neither a genius nor a
chocolate lover.

Page 2 of 5

Massachusetts Institute of Technology


Department of Electrical Engineering & Computer Science
6.041/6.431: Probabilistic Systems Analysis
(Spring 2015)
Tutorial 1 Solutions
1. (a) At least two of the events A, B, C occur:
(A B) (A C) (B C)

(b) At most two of the events A, B, C occur:


(A B C)c

(c) None of the events A, B, C occurs:


Ac B c C c

(d) All three events A, B, C occur:


ABC
Page 3 of 5

Massachusetts Institute of Technology


Department of Electrical Engineering & Computer Science
6.041/6.431: Probabilistic Systems Analysis
(Spring 2015)

(e) Exactly one of the events A, B, C occurs:


(A B c C c ) (Ac B C c ) (Ac B c C)

(f) Events A and B occur, but C does not occur:


A B Cc

(g) Either event B occurs or, if not, then C also does not occur:
B (B c C c )

Page 4 of 5

Massachusetts Institute of Technology


Department of Electrical Engineering & Computer Science
6.041/6.431: Probabilistic Systems Analysis
(Spring 2015)

2. Since all outcomes are equally likely, we are dealing with a discrete uniform probability law. To
obtain the probability of an event, we simply count the number of elements in the event and
divide by the total number of elements in the sample space.
There are 3 flips, with 2 possible results for each flip. Thus there are 23 = 8 elements (distinct
sequences) in the sample space.
(a) Any particular sequence has probability 1/8. Therefore, P({HHH}) = 1/8 .
(b) This event again consists of a single sequence, and so P({HT H}) = 1/8 .
(c) The event of interest is {HHT, HT H, T HH}. Since it consists of 3 elements, its probability
is 3/8 .
(d) The set of sequences that have at least as many Heads as Tails is {HHH, HHT, HT H, T HH}.
Its probability is 4/8 .
3. MITr, Unit 1, Solved problem 2.

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