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Contents
CASERIDGE TECHSYS COMMENTARY.......................................................................................................... 3
WHERE IS THIS MARKET HEADING? .................................................................................................................................................. 3
THE CASERIDGE TECHSYS DEALBOOK NETWORK.................................................................................... 5
PERFORMANCE UPDATE: CASERIDGE TOP PICKS LIST 2010: .................................................................... 6
CASERIDGE TOP PICKS LIST 2010 ..................................................................................................................................................... 6
RECENT ANALYST ESTIMATE CHANGES (TOP PICKS LIST: 2010) .................................................................................................... 7
ABSOLUTE SOFTWARE CORPORATION (TSX:ABT) ................................................................................................................................................. 7
MOSAID TECHNOLOGIES INC. (TSX:MSD) ........................................................................................................................................................... 7
MIRANDA TECHNOLOGIES INC. (TSX:MT) ............................................................................................................................................................... 7
RUGGEDCOM INC. (TSX:RCM) .............................................................................................................................................................................. 7
20-20 TECHNOLOGIES INC. (TSX:TWT)................................................................................................................................................................. 7
RADIANT COMMUNICATIONS CORP. (TSXV:RCN) .................................................................................................................................................. 7
CASERIDGE TECHSYS INDEX COMPONENT SUMMARY AS AT FEBRUARY 5, 2010 ................................... 8
M ARKET S ENTIMENT C ASERIDGE T ECH S YS U NIVERSE ......................................................................................................... 9
BULLISH SENTIMENT HAS FALLEN OFF A CLIFF IN THE LAST MONTH, DECLINING FROM 51% TO 33% IN THE LAST THREE WEEKS. BULLISH SENTIMENT IS NOW
BELOW THE 24 WEEK AVERAGE TRENDLINE AND NEAR WHAT WE CONSIDER TO BE THE LONG TERM TRENDLINE. ................................................... 9
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REDKNEE SOLUTIONS, INC. (TSX:RKN) ............................................................................................................................................................... 14
RUGGEDCOM INC. (TSX:RCM) ............................................................................................................................................................................ 14
AEROQUEST INTERNATIONAL LTD. (TSX:AQL) ..................................................................................................................................................... 14
GLV, INC. (TSX:GLV.A) ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 14
PNI DIGITAL MEDIA INC. (TSXV:PN) .................................................................................................................................................................... 14
PNI DIGITAL MEDIA INC. (TSXV:PN) .................................................................................................................................................................... 14
MIGAO CORPORATION (TSX:MGO) ...................................................................................................................................................................... 14
SOFTCHOICE CORP. (TSX:SO) ............................................................................................................................................................................ 14
VECIMA NETWORKS INC. (TSX:VCM) ................................................................................................................................................................... 14
COMMERCIAL SOLUTIONS INC. (TSX:CSA) .......................................................................................................................................................... 14
VECIMA NETWORKS INC. (TSX:VCM) ................................................................................................................................................................... 14
MIGAO CORPORATION (TSX:MGO) ...................................................................................................................................................................... 14
VECIMA NETWORKS INC. (TSX:VCM) ................................................................................................................................................................... 14
ACTIVE CONTROL TECHNOLOGY, INC. (TSXV:ACT) ............................................................................................................................................ 14
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Now that we are in the midst of a market correction: what next? Where do we go from here? For the
answer to this let’s take a look at the charts to see what our GMM model is telling us. Now this might get
technical, so bare with me for a few moments:
0.1 1.3
1.28 1.28
0.08
7.19% 1.2
0.06
0.04 1.1
0.02
1.02
1
0
-1.45%
-0.02
0.9
-0.04 LQA/LTM
0.81 0.8
-0.06 GMM
-0.08
NQA GMM 0.7
-0.1 -10.09%
-0.12 0.6
This chart dates back to May 2008 to provide us with pre-market meltdown and recovery context. Let’s
go through each of the indicators to provide some colour.
February 9, 2010
In purple the GMM is presently at 1.28 – at or above the highs from before the massive market selloff.
This indicator is based on trailing financial statements dated as at early October, 2009. In our model, this
indicator acts as a proxy for the forward gross profit growth rate over the ensuing twelve month period. In
short: as at February 5, 2010 the market is pricing in a 28% increase in gross profits for the period between
October 2009 and October 2010.
The LQA/LTM indicator in light blue shows us the current rolling run rate of gross profits dated as at the
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average date of the trailing financials, which as of today means early October, 2009. This chart shows that
at the end of the third calendar quarter of 2009, aggregate gross profits in the Caseridge TechSys Index
declined by 1.45%. To clarify, this means that annualized gross profits as at the end of the third quarter of
2009 were about 1.5% lower than in the preceding twelve month period.
The NQA GMM indicator in dark blue is a forward looking indicator that is based on consensus analyst
estimates for gross profits and gross margins in the “next quarter”; and which is annualized for the
purposes of our model. This indicator is at 1.02 as at February 5th. This means that the market is fully
pricing in the results of the analysts’ consensus estimates for the next quarter, and then some.
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With that elaboration out of the way, the current jitteriness in the markets is a function of the high
implied gross profit growth rates priced in to the market relative to the declining gross profits in the
trailing quarter. In order for a sustainable market advance, the GMM multiple needs to decline from the
present value of 1.28 to something closer to or below the 1.20 level. This doesn’t necessarily imply a
market decline – it could result from higher gross profits and gross profit growth rates in the December
quarter. Should this be the case, the gross profit growth rate (in light blue in the chart above) will turn
positive and over the course of the year we will likely see gross profit growth rates in excess of 10%. As
these growth rates increase as financial results are released, the GMM should decline, even if the market
stabilizes or valuations improve. For this to happen, gross profit growth rates need to exceed the growth
in enterprise valuations. Further, once the fourth quarter is released and the analysts focus their revisions
on the first and second quarters of 2010, we should see a further decline in the NQA GMM index to below
1.00. We believe that anything below 0.95 would present some strong buying opportunities.
In the final analysis, this market will move as the combination of gross profits and gross margins is
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revealed. The market will begin to advance on a sustainable basis if the GMM declines to below 1.20 as a
result of strong gross profit growth rates. We expect that this will begin once the average age of the
trailing financials moves from October to December. If it doesn’t, then we’re in for some further declines.
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Adam E. Adamou
adamou@caseridge.com
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Caseridge has expanded the TechSys DealBook via the Caseridge TechSys DealBook
Network on LinkedIn. Since going “live” the Caseridge TechSys DealBook Network has grown to one of
the largest targeted network of industry professionals in Canada. If you are looking for connections with
those that are connected, this is the perfect venue for you.
Caseridge is also very active on twitter with real time updates on changes to
the market, news releases and changes in target recommendations. You can follow our feed on twitter at
http://twitter.com/caseridge.
February 9, 2010
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Performance Update: Caseridge Top Picks List 2010:
In the comprehensive list, the Caseridge Top Picks were flat in a significantly negative market, gaining
0.68% on the week (equal weighted) while realizing strong gains on a YTD basis of 7.94%. Analysts were
busy with 8 upgrades to their consensus target prices in the last week. The “GMM Target” represents our
twelve month price target on the listed stock. It featured one downgrade to our target price of Wi-LAN
to $3.00 from our previous target of $3.50.
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Computer Modelling Group Ltd. † TSX:CMG $ 15.10 $20.00► $17.20► 5.23 0.40
Aastra Technologies Ltd. † TSX:AAH $ 29.25 $50.00► $38.71► 4.32 (15.58)
Constellation Software Inc. TSX:CSU $ 39.50 $50.00► $40.89▲ 3.95 7.48
C-Com Satellite Systems Inc. † TSXV:CMI $ 0.31 $0.70 ► NA 3.33 (4.62)
Cangene Corp. TSX:CNJ $ 5.55 $10.00► $10.00► 3.16 8.82
RuggedCom Inc. TSX:RCM $ 20.70 $ 25.00► $ 23.36▲ 2.99 15.26
EXFO Electro Optical TSX:EXF $ 5.56 $6.00► $5.34▲ 2.58 37.97
MOSAID Technologies Inc. TSX:MSD $ 21.66 $ 30.00► $25.95► 2.27 13.88
Miranda Technologies Inc. † TSX:MT $ 4.95 $10.00► $7.20► 1.64 (8.33)
Glentel Inc. TSX:GLN $ 14.64 $25.00► 18.00► 0.83 9.25
Enghouse Systems Ltd. TSX:ESL $ 7.98 $12.00► $8.00► 0.38 (7.21)
Wi-Lan Inc. TSX:WIN $ 2.67 $3.00▼ $4.18► 0.38 1.52
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Wireless Matrix Corp. TSX:WRX $ 1.03 $ 2.00► $1.64► 0.00 0.98
March Networks Corporation TSX:MN $ 4.30 $ 9.00► $5.69► 0.00 7.50
Absolute Software Corporation TSX:ABT $ 6.09 $ 7.00► $ 6.80► (0.16) 16.00
Descartes Systems Group Inc. † TSX:DSG $ 6.29 $7.50► $6.70▲ (0.47) (0.47)
Intermap Technologies Corp. † TSX:IMP $ 1.99 $3.20► $4.47▲ (0.50) 9.34
Sierra Wireless Inc. † TSX:SW $ 11.74 $15.00► 12.04▲ (0.51) 5.01
Vector Aerospace Corporation† TSX:RNO $ 6.12 $10.00► $8.68► (0.65) (0.33)
Icron Technologies Corp. TSXV:IT $ 0.49 $1.00► NA (2.00) 53.13
Carmanah Technologies Corp. † TSX:CMH $ 0.76 $1.20► $1.23► (2.56) (8.43)
CriticalControl Solutions Corp. TSX:CCZ $ 0.75 $ 1.50► NA (2.60) (8.54)
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Hemisphere GPS Inc. TSX:HEM $ 1.00 $1.40► $1.32▲ (3.85) 17.65
Vecima Networks Inc. TSX:VCM $ 7.00 $8.00► $9.33► (6.67) 20.69
Radiant Communications Corp. † TSXV:RCN $ 1.05 $ 3.00► $1.58► (8.70) 5.00
$ 1.20►
TSXV:SER NA
Serenic Corp. $ 0.42 (16.00) (8.70)
AVERAGE 0.68% 7.94%
UR Under
*As of previous week’s stock market close NA = Not Any Review ** ACQUIRED
† Indicates that Caseridge employees or members of their family own or beneficially control shares in the specified companies.
These consensus target prices are based on the target prices of a sample of analysts that we track and we do not necessarily track all of the analysts in the coverage universe
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On a value weighted basis the Top Picks are flat to negative over the last month giving back just under
1% in the last month vs. losses in the 6% to 8% range for the broader benchmarks:
Market View Last Month Return (%) Relative Performance LTM Return (%) Relative Performance
vs. the Top Picks
Caseridge 2010 Top Picks (0.77) NA 76.92 NA
BENCHMARKS
Canadian TechSys Universe (8.00) -8.77% 85.28 +8.36%
S&P/TSX Composite Index (5.59) -6.36% 26.66 -50.26%
Russell 2000 Index (7.13) -7.90% 30.30 -46.62%
Feb-01-2010 Initiation of Miranda Technologies Inc. Scotia Capital Revenue FQ4 34.16 33.66
Coverage (TSX:MT) 2009
Feb-01-2010 Initiation of RuggedCom Inc. (TSX:RCM) Scotia Capital Revenue FY 2010 72.78 72.57
Coverage
Jan-29-2010 Initiation of RuggedCom Inc. (TSX:RCM) Wellington West Capital Revenue FQ3 18.78 18.87
Coverage Markets Inc. 2010
Jan-29-2010 Initiation of RuggedCom Inc. (TSX:RCM) Wellington West Capital Revenue FY 2010 72.78 72.57
Coverage Markets Inc.
Jan-28-2010 Downward 20-20 Technologies Inc. TD Newcrest Capital Inc. Revenue FY 2010 66.67 66.64
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Revision (TSX:TWT)
Jan-27-2010 Downward 20-20 Technologies Inc. National Bank Financial Revenue FQ1 16.38 16.30
Revision (TSX:TWT) 2010
Jan-27-2010 Downward 20-20 Technologies Inc. National Bank Financial Revenue FY 2010 66.67 66.64
Revision (TSX:TWT)
Jan-27-2010 Downward 20-20 Technologies Inc. BMO Capital Markets, Revenue FY 2010 66.67 66.64
Revision (TSX:TWT) Canadian Equity
Research
Jan-22-2010 Initiation of Radiant Communications Corp. PI Financial Corp. Revenue FQ4 NA 7.83
Coverage (TSXV:RCN) 2009
Jan-22-2010 Initiation of Radiant Communications Corp. PI Financial Corp. Revenue FY 2009 NA 30.25
Coverage (TSXV:RCN)
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Caseridge TechSys Index Component Summary as at February 5, 2010
TechSys Universe Summary of Component Companies
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Gross Profit Growth Rate -1.66%▲ (neg)
VALUATION
EV/Revenue 1.75▲
EV/Gross Profit 3.80▲
Gross Margin Multiple (LQA) 1.28▼
Price/Cash Flow: 13.00▲
Notes: 1 All figures are based on averages, excluding the high/low outliers.
2 Percentages and Multiples are based on the averages of the individual
components and not on the averages of the global numbers.
3 Note that the universe is not static and changes over time.
“Cash Flow” is CGBO before working capital changes.
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5 Individual GMM figures are capped at 3X for the purposes of calculating the
global GMM.
6 All dollar figures are in Canadian dollars and in thousands.
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67%
64%
64%
63%
59% 59%
58%
57% 57%
55% 56% 55%
54%
50%
52%
51%
50%
49% 49%
48% 48% 48%
46%
44%
43%
42% 42%
41%
24%
20%
21%
20%
19%
18%
17%
16% 16%
February 9, 2010
3%
2%
Caseridge TechSys DealBook
Bullish sentiment has fallen off a cliff in the last month, declining from 51% to 33% in the last three weeks.
Bullish sentiment is now below the 24 week average trendline and near what we consider to be the long term
trendline. Neutral sentiment gained four points to move to 54% while Bearish sentiment increased three points
to 13%. We believe that a further decline in Neutral sentiment with an increase in the Bearish sentiment closer to
the 20% range is possible. A decline in the Bullish sentiment to below 30% would indicate the start of a
capitulation move that might result in strong buying opportunities.
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Caseridge GMM Tracking and GP Growth Trends
15.00% 1.3
1.28 1.28
1.26
13.27% 1.26
1.22
1.24
1.23
1.21 1.22
1.2
10.00%
1.14 1.13
7.45% 1.13
1.12 7.19%
1.10 1.1
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5.00%
1.06
4.37% 4.53%
1.05
1.02
1.02
0.99 1
0.98
0.96 0.96
0.00% -0.14%
-1.45%
-1.65%
0.90
0.90 0.90 0.9
-2.64% -2.63%
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0.870.88 -3.17%
-3.92%
-4.71%
-5.00%
-5.57% -5.66%
0.8
-6.92%
LTM -7.46%
/LFY
-8.05%
-10.00% -10.09%
P: 416-915-4142
0.7
-15.00% 0.6
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The Gross Margin Multiple (in purple) (“GMM”) declined marginally to 1.28 over the last week while the forward looking
“Next Quarter Annualized” GMM in dark blue (which is based on consensus analyst estimates for gross profits in the next
quarter) closed out the week down at 1.02. The annualized Gross Profit Growth rates (in light blue and yellow) remain negative
as at the end of September. In blue we see that gross profits have declined by 1.65% over the last twelve months (“LTM”) as
compared to the last fiscal year-end (“LFY”). In yellow the chart shows that gross profits have declined by 1.45% when
comparing the last quarter annualized (“LQA”) to the LTM. The next wave of financial releases for the four calendar quarter of
2009 will be the next driver in the valuation of the market with what we believe will be some dramatic shifts in the numbers.
(TSX:DSG)
Dec-8-2009 - Cash N Go Ltd. Hosted Data Transaction -
Solutions Inc. (TSX:HDX)
Dec-8-2009 - Communifx Corporation MDC Partners Inc. (TSX:MDZ.A) -
Dec-8-2009 Feb-1-2010 Xenos Group Inc. (TSX:XNS) Actuate Corporation 33.04
(NasdaqGS:ACTU)
Dec-7-2009 Jan-15-2010 DC Energy Services Inc. Total Energy Services Inc. 42.30
(TSX:TOT)
Dec-3-2009 Dec-3-2009 Pole Position Software GmbH Absolute Software Corporation 14.55
(TSX:ABT)
Dec-1-2009 Dec-1-2009 Firebird Technologies Inc. 5N Plus Inc. (TSX:VNP) -
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Merger/Acquisition Transactions (Last 3 Months)
Announced Date Closed Date Target Buyer/Investors Size ($mm)
Dec-1-2009 - Sanomune Inc. Diamedica Inc. (TSXV:DMA) 7.62
Nov-26-2009 Nov-26-2009 International Datacasting Corp. 1.33
(TSX:IDC)
Nov-23-2009 Nov-23-2009 Sir Royalty Income Fund (TSX:SRV.UN) Retail Dimensions Incorporated 7.13
Nov-17-2009 Dec-1-2009 Cloudwerx Data Solutions Inc. QHR Technologies Inc. 0.40
(TSXV:QHR)
Nov-17-2009 Nov-17-2009 Corel Corporation ESW Capital, LLC 9.93
Nov-11-2009 - Loyalty Access Solutions Corporation Mint Technology Corp. -
(TSXV:MIT)
Nov-11-2009 Nov-11-2009 Matrikon India Matrikon Inc. (TSX:MTK) 0.55
Nov-10-2009 - Nucryst Pharmaceuticals Corporation Westaim Corp. (TSX:WED) 8.11
(NasdaqCM:NCST)
Nov-9-2009 Dec-8-2009 CLINICARE Corporation QHR Technologies Inc. 4.73
(TSXV:QHR)
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Nov-9-2009 Dec-23-2009 Cossette Inc. Mill Road Capital 150.00
Nov-9-2009 Dec-7-2009 Logic Innovations, Inc., Digital Video and International Datacasting Corp. 0.60
Data Broadcast Product Lines (TSX:IDC)
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Jan-18-2010 - Dantherm Power A/S Ballard Power Systems Inc. 7.73
(TSX:BLD),Danfoss Ventures
A/S,Dantherm A/S
(CPSE:DANTH)
Jan-13-2010 - SmartCool Systems Inc. (TSXV:SSC) 0.58
Jan-7-2010 Jan-22-2010 BioteQ Environmental Technologies Inc. Newalta Corporation (TSX:NAL) 3.79
(TSX:BQE)
Dec-23-2009 Dec-23-2009 One Earth Farms Corp. Ag Growth International Inc. 14.28
(TSX:AFN),Alliance Grain Traders
Inc. (TSX:AGT),CAPE Fund
Management Inc.,Capital for
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Aboriginal Prosperity and
Entrepreneurship
Dec-23-2009 Dec-23-2009 TransGaming, Inc. (TSXV:TNG) 8.48
Dec-17-2009 Jan-19-2010 EnWave Corp. (TSXV:ENW) 3.39
Dec-17-2009 - Spectral Diagnostics Inc. (TSX:SDI) BioMS Medical Corp. 18.21
(TSX:MS),Matrix Asset
Management Inc. (TSX:MTA)
Dec-16-2009 Jan-13-2010 Mint Technology Corp. (TSXV:MIT) 0.22
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Note: Canceled transactions are not included in the results. Market View constituent companies that are listed as the seller company
are included in the results.
February 9, 2010
Caseridge TechSys DealBook
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Weekly Events Calendar for the Week ending February 12, 2010
Date/Time Company Name / Subject Event
Feb-08-2010 Cossette Inc. Expected Earnings Release Date
Feb-08-2010 Mediagrif Interactive Technologies Inc. (TSX:MDF) Expected Earnings Release Date
Feb-08-2010 Transition Therapeutics Inc. (TSX:TTH) Expected Earnings Release Date
Feb-08-2010 Xenos Group Inc. (TSX:XNS) Expected Earnings Release Date
Feb-08-2010 12:00 PM SXC Health Solutions, Corp. (NasdaqGS:SXCI) Conference Presentation Call
Feb-08-2010 2:30 PM JDS Uniphase Corp. (NasdaqGS:JDSU) Conference Presentation Call
Feb-09-2010 Cossette Inc. Annual General Meeting
Feb-09-2010 8:00 AM H2O Innovation Inc. (TSXV:HEO) Expected Earnings Release Date
Feb-09-2010 9:00 AM ATS Automation Tooling Systems Inc. (TSX:ATA) Expected Earnings Release Date
Feb-09-2010 9:00 AM Transition Therapeutics Inc. (TSX:TTH) Conference Presentation Call
Feb-09-2010 9:10 AM DragonWave Inc. (TSX:DWI) Conference Presentation Call
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Feb-09-2010 10:00 AM ATS Automation Tooling Systems Inc. (TSX:ATA) Earnings Call
Feb-09-2010 10:30 AM H2O Innovation Inc. (TSXV:HEO) Earnings Call
Feb-09-2010 12:00 PM Cordy Oilfield Services, Inc. (TSXV:CKK) Special/Extraordinary
Shareholders Meeting
Feb-09-2010 5:00 PM Axia NetMedia Corp. (TSX:AXX) Expected Earnings Release Date
Feb-09-2010 5:00 PM Mad Catz Interactive Inc. (AMEX:MCZ) Earnings Call
Feb-09-2010 5:00 PM Mad Catz Interactive Inc. (AMEX:MCZ) Expected Earnings Release Date
Feb-10-2010 Gennum Corporation (TSX:GND) Expected Earnings Release Date
Feb-10-2010 12:55 PM Wireless Matrix Corp. (TSX:WRX) Conference Presentation Call
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Feb-10-2010 3:48 PM Sierra Wireless Inc. (TSX:SW) Expected Earnings Release Date
Feb-10-2010 4:00 PM Axia NetMedia Corp. (TSX:AXX) Earnings Call
Feb-10-2010 5:30 PM Sierra Wireless Inc. (TSX:SW) Earnings Call
Feb-10-2010 6:30 PM Gennum Corporation (TSX:GND) Earnings Call
Feb-11-2010 GLV, Inc. (TSX:GLV.A) Expected Earnings Release Date
Feb-11-2010 7:30 AM Redknee Solutions, Inc. (TSX:RKN) Earnings Call
Feb-11-2010 8:30 AM RuggedCom Inc. (TSX:RCM) Earnings Call
Feb-11-2010 9:00 AM Aeroquest International Ltd. (TSX:AQL) Expected Earnings Release Date
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Feb-11-2010 9:00 AM Redknee Solutions, Inc. (TSX:RKN) Expected Earnings Release Date
Feb-11-2010 9:00 AM RuggedCom Inc. (TSX:RCM) Expected Earnings Release Date
Feb-11-2010 11:00 AM Aeroquest International Ltd. (TSX:AQL) Earnings Call
Feb-11-2010 2:00 PM GLV, Inc. (TSX:GLV.A) Earnings Call
Feb-11-2010 4:00 PM PNI Digital Media Inc. (TSXV:PN) Expected Earnings Release Date
Feb-11-2010 4:30 PM PNI Digital Media Inc. (TSXV:PN) Earnings Call
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Note that the opinions in this report are solely those of the author. The information in this report is gathered from various information
provides that we believe to be reliable. Material errors or omissions are unintentional, and corrections may be forwarded to the author for
correction in a subsequent report. This report is intended only for sophisticated and accredited investors, the recommendations made should
not be acted upon by investors without proper advice and consultation with their investment advisor. Caseridge is not a member of the
Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (IIROC) or of the Toronto Stock Exchange. Caseridge is registered as an Exempt
Market Dealer in Ontario.
This message and any attached or linked material, is for information purposes only, and does not constitute an opinion, advice or a
recommendation regarding any securities referred to therein. Information in this message or any attached or linked material relating to an
offering of securities should be read in conjunction with the prospectus or other offering document for those securities. Caseridge Capital
provides corporate finance advisory services in the areas of new issues, private placements, mergers, acquisitions, valuations and strategic
advisory services.
Caseridge does not directly or indirectly own shares in the companies named in this report, however independently managed mutual funds or
other investment vehicles that may be owned by the author or by Caseridge employees may take positions in companies named in this
report.
February 9, 2010
Caseridge TechSys DealBook
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