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Mathematicalmethods Lecture Slides Week8 NumericalMethods

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63 views48 pages

Mathematicalmethods Lecture Slides Week8 NumericalMethods

NumericalMethods

Uploaded by

eric
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 48

AMATH 460: Mathematical Methods

for Quantitative Finance


8. Numerical Methods
Kjell Konis
Acting Assistant Professor, Applied Mathematics
University of Washington
Kjell Konis (Copyright 2013)

8. Numerical Methods

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Outline
1

Implied Volatility

Bisection Method

Newtons Method

Newtons Method for n Dimensional Nonlinear Problems

Lagranges Method + Newtons Method

Another Lagranges Method Example

Maximum Expected Returns Optimization

Kjell Konis (Copyright 2013)

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Outline
1

Implied Volatility

Bisection Method

Newtons Method

Newtons Method for n Dimensional Nonlinear Problems

Lagranges Method + Newtons Method

Another Lagranges Method Example

Maximum Expected Returns Optimization

Kjell Konis (Copyright 2013)

8. Numerical Methods

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Implied Volatility
The Black-Scholes formula for the price of a European call option
C = Se q(T t) (d1 ) Ke r (T t) (d2 )
where
d1 =

log

 
S
K

+ r q + 2

T t

(T t)

d2 = d1 T t

The maturity T and strike price K are given


When option is traded, spot price S and option price C are known
Assume risk-free rate r is constant and q known
Only value that is not known is the volatility
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Implied Volatility
The implied volatility problem is to find so that the Black-Scholes
price and the market price are equal
If S, K , q, r , T , and t are known, consider
f () = Se q(T t) (d1 ) Ke r (T t) (d2 ) C
Finding the implied volatility boils down to solving the nonlinear
problem
f () = 0
Problem can be solved numerically
For example, plot f () and see where it is equal to zero

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Implied Volatility
R function to compute Black-Scholes call price
bsc <- function(S, T, t, K, r, s, q) {
d1 <- (log(S/K)+(r-q+0.5*s2)*(T-t))/(s*sqrt(T-t))
d2 <- d1-s*sqrt(T-t)
S*exp(-q*(T-t))*pnorm(d1)-K*exp(-r*(T-t))*pnorm(d2)
}
Since R treats all variables as vectors
> bsc(50, 0.5, 0.0, 45, 0.06, 0.2, 0.02)
[1] 6.508365
> bsc(50, 0.5, 0.0, 45, 0.06, c(0.15, 0.2, 0.25), 0.02)
[1] 6.119266 6.508365 6.986157
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Implied Volatility
Suppose the option sold for $7, find
Plot f () over a range of values and see where it crosses the x axis
> sigmas <- seq(0.05, 0.5, by = 0.01)
> fsig <- bsc(50, 0.5, 0.0, 45, 0.06, sigmas, 0.02) - 7

f()
1

> plot(sigmas, fsig, type = "l")

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

The implied volatility is implied = 0.25


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Implied Volatility

To compute implied , had to evaluate Black-Scholes formula 46 times


Computed answer still not very precise
> bsc(50, 0.5, 0.0, 45, 0.06, 0.25, 0.02) - 7
[1] -0.013843
Goal: compute implied to within a pre-specified tolerance with
minimum number of function evaluations
Methods are called nonlinear solvers

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Outline
1

Implied Volatility

Bisection Method

Newtons Method

Newtons Method for n Dimensional Nonlinear Problems

Lagranges Method + Newtons Method

Another Lagranges Method Example

Maximum Expected Returns Optimization

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Bisection Method

Let f be a continuous function defined on the interval [a, b]


If f (a) and f (b) have different signs, intermediate value theorem says
there is x (a, b) such that f (x ) = 0
Bisection method
1

Compute f (c) where c = 21 (a + b) is the midpoint of [a, b]

If sign f (c) = sign f (a) , let a := c, otherwise let b := c

Goto 1

Repeat steps 13 until |b a| is smaller than a pre-specified tolerance

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Example: Bisection Method

f()
1

f(b)

f(a)
0.1

f(c)

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

Let a = 0.1, b = 0.3; f (0.1) < 0 and f (0.3) > 0


Let c = 12 (a + b) = 0.2; f (0.2) < 0
Since sign f (0.2) = sign f (0.1) , let a := 0.2


Each step preserves sign f (a) = sign f (b) , cuts interval in half


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Bisection Method: R Implementation


Implementation of the bisection method for a function of one variable
No error checking
bisection <- function(f, a, b, tol = 0.001) {
while(b-a > tol) {
c <- (a+b)/2
if(sign(f(c)) == sign(f(a)))
a <- c
else
b <- c
}
(a+b)/2
}

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Example: Bisection Method


Write f () as a function of one variable
fsig <- function(sigma)
bsc(50, 0.5, 0.0, 45, 0.06, sigma, 0.02) - 7
Use bisection to solve f () = 0
> bisection(fsig, 0.1, 0.3)
[1] 0.2511719
Check computed solution
> bsc(50, 0.5, 0.0, 45, 0.06, 0.2511719, 0.02)
[1] 6.998077
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Outline
1

Implied Volatility

Bisection Method

Newtons Method

Newtons Method for n Dimensional Nonlinear Problems

Lagranges Method + Newtons Method

Another Lagranges Method Example

Maximum Expected Returns Optimization

Kjell Konis (Copyright 2013)

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Newtons Method
Commonly used method for solving nonlinear equations
Again, want to find x so that f (x ) = 0
Assumptions
f (x ) is differentiable
Starting point x0
Idea: approximate f (x ) with a first order Taylor polynomial around xk
f (x ) f (xk ) + (x xk )f 0 (xk )
Want to choose xk+1 so that f (xk+1 ) = 0
f (xk ) + (xk+1 xk )f 0 (xk ) = f (xk+1 ) 0
Leads to the recursion
xk+1 = xk
Kjell Konis (Copyright 2013)

f (xk )
f 0 (xk )

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Illustration: Newtons Method

f(x0)

f(x1)

f(x2)

x*

x3

x2

x1

x0

Newtons method produces a sequence {xk } that converges to x


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Analysis: Newtons Method


Consider an order 1 Taylor polynomial around xk evaluated at x
0 = f (x ) = f (xk )+(x xk )f 0 (xk )+

(x xk )2 00
f (k )
2

k [x , xk ]

f (xk )
f 00 (k )

+
(x

x
)
=

(x xk )2
k
f 0 (xk )
2f 0 (xk )
x xk+1 =

f 00 (k )
(x xk )2
2f 0 (xk )

f 00 (k ) 2

2f 0 (xk ) k
are bounded on the interval where the solver is active

00
f (k )
2


|k+1 | M |k |
M = max 0
2f (xk )
k+1 =

If f 0 and f 00

Newtons method converges quadratically


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Caveats
Quadratic convergence not guaranteed
Need good starting point + well-behaved function
It gets worse: convergence not guaranteed
In particular, algorithm may cycle
For example: sin(x ) = 0 between 2 and
There is an xk such that
xk+1 = xk

sin(xk )
= xk
cos(xk )

What happens in the next iteration?


xk+2 = xk+1

sin(xk+1 )
sin(xk )
sin(xk )
= xk
= xk +
cos(xk+1 )
cos(xk )
cos(xk )

= xk
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Outline
1

Implied Volatility

Bisection Method

Newtons Method

Newtons Method for n Dimensional Nonlinear Problems

Lagranges Method + Newtons Method

Another Lagranges Method Example

Maximum Expected Returns Optimization

Kjell Konis (Copyright 2013)

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Newtons Method for n Dimensional Nonlinear Problems


Let F : Rn Rn have continuous partial derivatives
Want to solve n-dimensional nonlinear problem
F (x ) = 0
Recall that the gradient of F is the n n matrix

F1
x1 (x )

F2 (x )
x1
D F (x ) =

..

Fn
x1 (x )

F1
x2 (x )

F2
x2 (x )

..
.

..

Fn
x2 (x )

F1
xn (x )

F2
(x
)

xn

..

Fn
xn (x )

Taylor polynomial for F (x ) around the point xk


F (x ) F (xk ) + D F (xk )(x xk )
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Newtons Method for n Dimensional Nonlinear Problems


To get Newtons method, approximate F (xk+1 ) by 0
0 F (xk ) + D F (xk )(xk+1 xk )
Solving for xk+1 gives the Newtons method recursion


xk+1 = xk D F (xk )

1

F (xk )

Need stopping condition, e.g., for > 0




1


F (xk ) <
D F (xk )

Similar to univariate version, have quadratic convergence for xk


sufficiently close to x
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Algorithm
Need starting point x0
If D F (xk ) is nonsingular, can compute xk+1 using the recursion


xk+1 = xk D F (xk )

1

F (xk )

To avoid computing inverse of D F (xk ) , let




u =

1

D F (xk ) u =



D F (xk )

F (xk )
1

D F (xk ) D F (xk )

F (xk ) = F (xk )

Algoroithm: (starting from x0 , tolerance > 0)


1
Compute F (xk ) and D F (xk )


2
Solve the linear system D F (xk ) u = F (xk )
3
Update xk+1 = xk u
4
If kuk < return xk+1 , otherwise goto 1
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Example
Let g(x , y ) = 1 (x 1)4 (y 1)4
Local maximum at (1, 1) = critical point at (1, 1)
Gradient of g(x , y )


F (x , y ) = D g(x , y )

T

= 4(x 1)3

4(y 1)3

T

Gradient of F (x , y )

2
12(x 1)

D F (x , y ) =

0
12(y

1)2

Use R to compute solution


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Example: R Implementation
First, need functions for F (x , y ) and its gradient
F <- function(x, y)
c(4*(x - 1)3, 4*(y - 1)3)
DF <- function(x, y)
diag(c(12*(x - 1)2, 12*(y - 1)2))
Need starting point:

x <- c(0, 0)

Do 25 Newton iterations
for(i in 1:25)
x <- x - solve(DF(x[1], x[2]), F(x[1], x[2]))
Result
[1] 0.9999604 0.9999604
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Outline
1

Implied Volatility

Bisection Method

Newtons Method

Newtons Method for n Dimensional Nonlinear Problems

Lagranges Method + Newtons Method

Another Lagranges Method Example

Maximum Expected Returns Optimization

Kjell Konis (Copyright 2013)

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Lagranges Method
Lagranges method for solving constrained optimization problems
Need to find the critical points of the Lagrangian
Easy in certain cases: minimum variance portfolio (solve linear
system)
Difficult when system is nonlinear: maximum expected return
portfolio

Revisit the example from the Lagranges method slides


max/min:
subject to:

Kjell Konis (Copyright 2013)

4x2 2x3
2x1 x2 x3 = 0
x12 + x22 13 = 0

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Newtons Method
Lagrangian
G(x , ) = 4x2 2x3 + 1 (2x1 x2 x3 ) + 2 (x12 + x22 13)
T

Set F (x , ) = D G(x , )


= 0 and solve for x and


set

4 + 22 x1 = 0
set
6 + 22 x2 = 0
set
2 1 = 0
set
2x1 x2 x3 = 0
set
x12 + x22 13 = 0
Nonlinear equation to solve
4 + 22 x1

6 + 22 x2

F (x , 2 ) =

2x1 x2 x3
x12 + x22 13

Kjell Konis (Copyright 2013)

22
0
0 2x1
0 2
0 2x2

2
D F (x , 2 ) =

2 1 1
0
2x1 2x2
0
0

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R Implementation of Newtons Method


R function for evaluating the function F
F <- function(x)
c(-4+2*x[4]*x[1],
6+2*x[4]*x[2],
2*x[1]-x[2]-x[3],
x[1]2+x[2]2-13)
R function for evaluating the gradient of F
DF <- function(x)
matrix(c(2*x[4],
0,
0, 2*x[1],
0, 2*x[4], 0, 2*x[2],
2,
-1, -1,
0,
2*x[1], 2*x[2], 0,
0),
4, 4, byrow = TRUE)
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R Implementation of Newtons Method

Starting point
x <- rep(1, 4)
15 Newton iterations
for(i in 1:15)
x <- x - solve(DF(x), F(x))
Code for Newton iterations very simple!

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Trace of Newtons Method


Recall solutions: (2, 3, 7, 2, 1) and (2, 3, 7, 2, 1)
x1
x2
x3
lambda2
0
1.000000 1.000000
1.000000 1.00000000
1
6.250000 1.250000
11.250000 -3.25000000
2
3.923817 1.830917
6.016716 -0.88961538
3
1.628100 5.180972
-1.924771 -0.01078146
4 -247.240485 81.795257 -576.276226 -0.41960973
5 -121.982204 45.928353 -289.892761 -0.22067419
6
-57.679989 31.899766 -147.259743 -0.13272296
7
-22.882945 26.924965 -72.690855 -0.11474286
8
-8.779338 15.966384 -33.525061 -0.15812161
9
-6.263144 7.360141 -19.886430 -0.27312590
10
-2.393401 5.191356
-9.978158 -0.48808187
11
-2.715121 3.147713
-8.577955 -0.77002329
12
-1.941247 3.135378
-7.017871 -0.95609045
13
-2.006288 2.999580
-7.012156 -0.99823214
14
-1.999995 3.000010
-7.000000 -0.99999694
15
-2.000000 3.000000
-7.000000 -1.00000000
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Convergence Rate

600

100

10

15

Iteration

Kjell Konis (Copyright 2013)

10

300

400

log( xk x* )

200

xk x*

500

10

15

Iteration

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Observations
From a given starting point, Newtons method converges (if it
converges) to a single value x
Starting at (1, 1, 1, 1), computed solution (2, 3, 7, 1)
For this particular problem, know there are 2 critical points
Try another starting point
x <- -rep(1, 4)
for(i in 1:15)
x <- x - solve(DF(x), F(x))
Solution: (2, 3, 7, 1)
In general, will not know the number of critical points
Need additional information about the problem
Multiple starting points
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Outline
1

Implied Volatility

Bisection Method

Newtons Method

Newtons Method for n Dimensional Nonlinear Problems

Lagranges Method + Newtons Method

Another Lagranges Method Example

Maximum Expected Returns Optimization

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Example: Lagranges Method


Homework 7 asked why is it difficult to find the critical points of the
Lagrangian for the following optimization problem
minimize:
subject to:

3x1 4x2 + x3 2x4


x22 + x32 + x42 = 1
3x12 + x32 + 2x42 = 6

Lagrangian
F (x , ) = 3x1 4x2 + x3 2x4
+ 1 (x22 + x32 + x42 1)
+ 2 (3x12 + x32 + 2x42 6)
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Example: Lagranges Method


Gradient of Lagrangian
3 + 62 x1

4
21 x2

1 + 2 x + 2 x

T

1 3
2 3
G(x , ) = D F (x , ) =

2 + 21 x4 + 42 x4

x22 + x32 + x42 1


3x12 + x32 + 2x42 6
Gradient of G

62
0
0
0
0
6x1
0
21
0
0
2x2 0

0
0
21 + 22
0
2x3 2x3

D G(x , ) =

0
0
0
21 + 42 2x4 2x4

0
2x2
2x3
2x4
0
0
6x1
0
2x3
4x4
0
0

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R Implementation
Function to compute G(x , )
G <- function(x)
c(3 + 6*x[6]*x[1], -4 - 2*x[5]*x[2],
1 + 2*x[5]*x[3] + 2*x[6]*x[3],
-2 + 2*x[5]*x[4] + 4*x[6]*x[4],
-x[2]2 + x[3]2 + x[4]2 - 1,
3*x[1]2 + x[3]2 + 2*x[4]2 - 6)

Function to compute D G(x , )


DG <- function(x) {
grad <- matrix(0, 6, 6)
grad[1,] <- c(6*x[6], 0, 0, 0, 0, 6*x[1])
grad[2,] <- c(0, -2*x[5], 0, 0, -2*x[2], 0)
grad[3,] <- c(0, 0, 2*x[5] + 2*x[6], 0, 2*x[3], 2*x[3])
grad[4,] <- c(0, 0, 0, 2*x[5] + 4*x[6], 2*x[4], 2*x[4])
grad[5,] <- c(0, -2*x[2], 2*x[3], 2*x[4], 0, 0)
grad[6,] <- c(6*x[1], 0, 2*x[3], 4*x[4], 0, 0)
grad
}
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Newtons Method
Starting point
x <- c(1, -1, 1, -1, 1, -1)
Newton iterations
for(i in 1:25)
x <- x - solve(DG(x), G(x))
Numeric solution
> x
[1]
[5]

0.4067205 -2.0091498
0.9954460 -1.2293456

2.1376693 -0.6834125

That is
0.4067205
2.0091498

xc =

2.1376693
0.6834125

Kjell Konis (Copyright 2013)

"

0.9954460
c =
1.2293456

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Analysis
Does the point (xc , c ) correspond to a minimum or a maximum?
Value of objective at (xc , c )
f <- function(x) 3*x[1] - 4*x[2] + x[3] - 2*x[4]
> f(x)
[1] 12.76125
Rewrite Lagrangian with fixed multipliers (for feasible x )
f (x ) = F (x , c ) = 3x1 4x2 + x3 2x4
+ 0.9954460 (x22 + x32 + x42 1)
1.2293456 (3x12 + x32 + 2x42 6)
Constrained min/max f (x ) min/max F (x , c )
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Analysis
Already know xc is a critical point of F (x , c )
xc minimum if D 2 F (xc , c ) positive definite
xc maximum if D 2 F (xc , c ) negative definite
Already have D 2 F (xc , c ), upper-left 4 4 block of D G(xc , c )
> round(DG(x), digits = 3)
[,1]
[,2]
[,3]
[,4]
[,5]
[,6]
[1,] -7.376 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 2.440
[2,] 0.000 -1.991 0.000 0.000 4.018 0.000
[3,] 0.000 0.000 -0.468 0.000 4.275 4.275
[4,] 0.000 0.000 0.000 -2.926 -1.367 -1.367
[5,] 0.000 4.018 4.275 -1.367 0.000 0.000
[6,] 2.440 0.000 4.275 -2.734 0.000 0.000

Follows that xc corresponds to a maximum


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Outline
1

Implied Volatility

Bisection Method

Newtons Method

Newtons Method for n Dimensional Nonlinear Problems

Lagranges Method + Newtons Method

Another Lagranges Method Example

Maximum Expected Returns Optimization

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Maximum Expected Returns Optimization


Recall:
Portfolio weights: w = (w1 , . . . , wn )
Asset expected returns: = (1 , . . . , n )
Asset returns covariance matrix: (symmetric, positive definite)
Want to maximize expected return subject to constraint on risk
maximize:
subject to:

T w
eTw = 1
w T w = P2

Linear objective, linear and quadratic constraints


Lagrangian
F (w , ) = T w + 1 (e T w 1) + 2 (w T w P2 )
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Maximum Expected Returns Optimization


Gradient of the Lagrangian
D F (w , ) = T + 1 e T + 22 w T


w T w P2

eTw 1

Solve to find critical point


+ 1 e + 22 w

T

eTw 1
G(w , ) = D F (w , ) =
=0
w T w P2

Gradient of G
22 e 2w

0
0
D G(w , ) = e T
2(w )T 0
0

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Example
Vector of expected returns
= (0.08, 0.10, 0.13, 0.15, 0.20)
Asset returns covariance matrix
0.019600 0.007560
0.012880
0.008750 0.009800
0.007560
0.032400
0.004140
0.009000
0.009450

0.052900
0.020125
0.020125
= 0.012880 0.004140

0.008750 0.009000
0.020125
0.062500 0.013125
0.009800
0.009450
0.020125 0.013125
0.122500

Target risk: P2 = 0.252 = 0.0625


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R Implementation
Definition of G(w , )
+ 1 e + 22 w

eTw 1
G(w , ) =

w T w P2

Function to compute G(w , )


G <- function(x, mu, Sigma, sigmaP2)
{
n <- length(mu)
c(mu + rep(x[n+1], n) + 2*x[n+2]*(Sigma %*% x[1:n]),
sum(x[1:n]) - 1,
t(x[1:5]) %*% Sigma %*% x[1:5] - sigmaP2)
}
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R Implementation
Gradient of G
22 e 2w

0
0
D G(w , ) = e T
2(w )T 0
0

Function to compute D G(w , )


DG <- function(x, mu, Sigma, sigmaP2)
{
n <- length(mu)
grad <- matrix(0.0, n+2, n + 2)
grad[1:n, 1:n] <- 2*x[n+2]*Sigma
grad[1:n, n+1] <- 1
grad[1:n, n+2] <- 2*(Sigma %*% x[1:5])
grad[n+1, 1:n] <- 1
grad[n+2, 1:n] <- 2*t(x[1:5]) %*% Sigma
grad
}
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8. Numerical Methods

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R Implementation
From starting point
> x <- c(rep(0.5, 5), 1, 1)
> x
[1] 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.0 1.0
Newton iterations
> for(i in 1:25)
x <- x - solve(DG(x, mu, Sigma, 0.252),
G(x, mu, Sigma, 0.252))
Numerical solution
> x
[1] -0.39550317 0.09606231 0.04583865
[5] 0.54372203 -0.09200813 -0.85714641
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Analysis
Recall: upper-left n n block of D G(w , c ) Hessian of F (w , c )
> DG(x, mu, Sigma, sigmaP2)[1:5, 1:5]
[,1]
[,2]
[,3]
[,4]
[,5]
[1,] -0.03360 0.01296 -0.02208 -0.01500 0.0168
[2,] 0.01296 -0.05554 0.00710 0.01543 -0.0162
[3,] -0.02208 0.00710 -0.09069 -0.03450 -0.0345
[4,] -0.01500 0.01543 -0.03450 -0.10714 0.0225
[5,] 0.01680 -0.01620 -0.03450 0.02250 -0.2100
Can check second order condition by computing eigenvalues
> eigen(DG(x, mu, Sigma, sigmaP2)[1:5, 1:5])$values
[1] -0.02024 -0.05059 -0.05806 -0.14445 -0.22364
Computed w is a constrained maximum
> t(x[1:5]) %*% mu
[1] 0.1991514
Kjell Konis (Copyright 2013)

8. Numerical Methods

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http://computational-finance.uw.edu

Kjell Konis (Copyright 2013)

8. Numerical Methods

48 / 48

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