Coming Great Depression
Coming Great Depression
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Financial markets today are vastly different from what
they were one cycle of Pluto ago, for now huge sums of money
can be made instantaneously by wire-transfer bets on currency
ratios and a variety of derivatives. These trades make huge
dollar profits but do not produce real wealth. The loss of the
distinction between paper money and concrete wealth creates
a few super-rich, many poor, and crumbling infrastructure.
"Paper profits" evaporate in a wink when stocks crash.
Concrete wealth--valuable things--endure though good times
and bad.
Overall Projection
The dot.com bull market ended and a long, protracted
bear market began when Pluto came within a 10 degree orb of
an opposition to the US Mars (April 2000) and this long bear
market will segue into an economic winter lasting till 2019 or
longer, depending on how wisely we respond to Pluto's demand
for radical reforms. The Pluto-slow gradualness of this
worsening economic situation will, I think, seem more like
bringing water to a boil slowly--as compared to the last great
depression which boiled quickly. The frog will cook instead of
leap. Following the Saturnian Crash of 1929, the economy was
wrecked in three years. I expect it will take from April 2000 till
2015 for this Pluto cycle depression to hit bottom.
The only previous time stocks dropped more than three
years in a row was 1932, during the worst years of the last
great depression. Pluto's orbit averages 248 years. It hasn't
been where it now is since the 1750s-1760s.
It's not "written in the stars" that we'll have another
great depression. What's likely is that prevailing beliefs will
cause resistance to Pluto's inevitable change, and this will
drive the economy into the first great depression of the new
century.
I look for this to unfold in three stages: 1) a long bear
stock market, 2) a deflation of real estate prices, and 3) the
euro replacing the dollar as the currency of choice for
international trade.
Gaps and Bubbles
Historically, new record wealth gaps concurrent with
speculative bubbles have preceded great depressions.
Bubbles don't burst in a day or a week; they usually take years
to deflate. Since the tech bubble popped in 2000, real estate
has been seen as propping up the overall economy. The
bursting of the tech bubble "disappeared" $5 trillion of assets
but housing prices have risen and interest rates dropped, and
now around 60 percent of homeowners have mortgage
indebtedness at or exceeding 80 percent of the value of their
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homes. Home prices are at record levels, creating a real
estate bubble. The bursting of the stock bubble impacted
mainly the wealthy few. The bursting of the real estate bubble
will impact the middle class and working poor.
"The United States has had a real estate cycle of roughly
18 years, starting as early as 1800...Historical data from the
US, Great Britain, Germany and other countries have shown
that real estate booms have preceded major depressions." (1)
This 18-year real estate cycle, noticed in the US and
elsewhere, corresponds to the cycles of the Moon's Nodes.
When the North Node moves through Capricorn, real estate
activity contracts. About 9 years later when it travels through
Cancer (opposite Capricorn) real estate prices rise and
sometimes boom into speculative bubbles. The backwardmoving North Node left Cancer and entered Gemini in October
2001, indicating the boom has peaked and we're now in the
early stages of real estate's down cycle. We can expect the
housing market to deflate during this phase of the Node's 18.6
year cycle, bottoming by 2010.
Upside Down Dow
My method of interpreting the astro-economic stock
market indicators suggests the first two decades of the 21st
Century will appear, in retrospect, like an upside down Dow
chart of the 1980s and 1990s. During those two decades, the
Dow went dramatically up with but a few brief stumbles, most
notably the crash of '87. My surmise is the Dow is now going
to go down steadily, with a few sharp up moves that quickly
peter out, much as the drops of the '80s and '90s quickly
recovered. I foresee this downward trend continuing till at
least 2015; beyond that it will depend on how we collectively
react.
As I write this, the next danger season for the financial
markets is February 24, 2003, give or take a week on either
side, when stocks are likely to take a nose dive, followed by
another in March. In Chart 1 for this date, notice that the US
Mars/Neptune square is afflicted by a conjunction of transiting
Mars, Moon and Pluto in Sagittarius, opposite transiting
Saturn, stationary at 22 Gemini, conjunct the US Mars. The
Saturn-Pluto opposition is triggered by Mars and the Moon.
Pluto, by itself, can be expected to exert downward pressure
on stocks. Crashes can be expected when Pluto's position is
triggered by other transiting planets. In February, those
others will be Mars and Saturn, and briefly the Moon.
By the end of March, (see Chart 2) the Saturn-Pluto
opposition will still be afflicting the US Mars-square-Neptune,
while Mars and Chiron in Capricorn (opposite the US Sun) will
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be squaring the Sun and Mercury in Aries (opposite the US
Saturn) creating a brief grand cross with the US Sun-squareSaturn--it will culminate and part quickly this time because all
the planets involved, except Chiron, move on quickly. Coming
on the heels of the late February aspects, I think we can
expect a mood of anxiety to continue, especially if there is war
in Iraq. November through December, a Mars-Jupiter
opposition will join Venus conjunct Pluto to depress stocks,
while an opposition of Chiron and Saturn will "hit" the US Sunsquare-Saturn: another danger time.
Autocracy Vs. Democracy
Keep in mind that the next two decades, as indicated by
Pluto's transit, will be about the worldwide struggle between
old and new, autocracy and democracy: the imbalance created
by top-down command-and-control corporate-dominated
governments. Those who profit from the fruits of mankind's
labors may feel compelled to perpetrate the most horrendous
conflicts in history to protect what they believe is God's will,
i.e. their wealth and power. It's guns at high noon between old
and new, and high noon is likely to peak at the winter solstice
of 2012, the Mayan 13 baktun or Great Cycle. I'll come back to
this.
Driving occasional upswings through 2003 will be Uranus
and Neptune in Aquarius, forming a 120-degree trine to Uncle
Sam's natal Uranus and Mars in Gemini. Don't look for a
sustained recovery, though, because Uranus will move beyond
this trine in the spring of 2003, turn retrograde, then
enter Pisces in January 2004 and be within orb of an
opposition to Sam's natal Neptune by June 2004. The last
time Uranus moved opposite Sam's natal Neptune, we had the
crash of 1920 and a depression, although not a great
depression. (It was when Uranus moved out of Pisces into
Aries opposite Sam's Saturn that the great depression of the
1930s struck).
Corporate Fiefdoms
Even before Uranus moves opposite natal Neptune, the
predominant direction for stock prices is likely to be down
because of Pluto's long affliction to the US Mars-squareNeptune, while the other planets, especially Mars, Jupiter
and Saturn, periodically trigger Pluto's pressure. The
efforts of bankers and bureaucrats to prop up stock prices
will be foiled by Pluto opposite where it was during the
1890s and first decade of the 20th Century: Look for reruns
of the Panics of 1893, 1903 and 1907. Maybe some audacious
politician will appear to play the kind of role Teddy
Roosevelt played earlier in the 20th Century, reforming the
system, but don't count on it. An empire of corporate
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fiefdoms is much stronger today than it was back then. This
corporate empire now owns and controls our politicians via
campaign contributions and lobbyists. No longer does the US
government control corporations; it now cooperates with them
to plunder the public.
2004
Jupiter will turn retrograde January 4, 2004 at 18
Virgo and by late February its conjunction with the US
Neptune will be out of orb. At the same time, Pluto's
affliction from Sagittarius will tighten its orb and by the
end of February be almost exactly opposite the US Mars and
thus also tightly square the US Neptune. By end of April
2004, Jupiter will be out of aspect but Mars will have moved
into Gemini and be conjunct the US Mars with Pluto at 21
Sagittarius nearly precisely opposite, indicating another
hurricane season for stocks. Jupiter will turn direct in
May 2004 and form an exact conjunction to the US Neptune
during the summer of 2004. Stocks can be expected to
continue down this year, with brief up moves.
Tempestuous Election
As the presidential campaign of 2004 is turning into
its homestretch in August (see Chart 3) Jupiter and Pluto
afflict Sam's Mars-Neptune, then in mid-September, Warrior
Mars will conjunct Sam's natal Neptune. On the outer wheel
of Chart 3 notice that Mars, Sun and Jupiter are conjunct
the US Neptune, forming a T square with natal Mars and
transiting Pluto at 19 Sagittarius. The presidential
election of 2004 is likely to be even more tempestuous than
the one in 2000. Will we be ready by then to investigate
charges that computerized voting machines are being rigged
by neo-cons? (2)
By elections in November 2004, Pluto is within 1 degree
of a precise opposition to Uncle Sam's financially sensitive
Mars. This will form a tight T square with Sam's Neptune in
Virgo. The exactness of this aspect suggests intense
trouble on Wall Street. Pluto is famous for dredging up
corruption, so we can look for the second act of the Enron
(et al.) scandals of 2001-2002. A bumper crop of rotten
apples are ready to fall as Pluto's opposition to the US
Mars tightens.
The Neo-Con Belief
The neo-conservative belief was put succinctly by The
Economist Magazine (3): "Enron showed that there is no
substitute for constant scrutiny and questioning. In the
end, if investors are ready to suspend disbelief when
confronted by companies with inflated numbers and
implausible business plans, no amount of regulation can save
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them. For prudent investors, the price of the market place
has to be eternal vigilance."
In other words, Mr. and Ms. Investor, your government
is not going to protect you from predatory corporate
executives and their good-old-boy accountant friends. Your
government is not going to stop the plundering, it's going
to facilitate it. The mission of corporate public relations
experts is to misinform.
I call President George Bush an agent of Pluto because,
serving a core constituency of wealthy conservatives,
Christian fundamentalists and Israeli lobbyists, he
facilitates the disintegration into social chaos Pluto's
present position indicates. As I write this, it looks like
Bush and co. may have our friends in the military mired in
Baghdad fighting urban guerillas while we consumers further
enrich oil companies by high prices at gas pumps during
2003. Bush is widely seen as one brick short of a full
load, but he is surrounded by good church-goers with high
IQ's and the ethics of cornered alley cats. What they have
most to fear is the rising euro replacing the dollar. (4)
Iraq, besides being seen as a threat to Israel,
switched to euros in November 2000 and made an extra profit
on oil sales as the euro rose about 20 percent. Both Russia
and China have recently switched some bank reserves from
dollars to euros. If this trend continues, euros will
replace dollars as the currency of international trade-which, in turn, will add greatly to the woes of falling
stocks and real estate.
"Once the dollar has come to the end of its useful
life, it will be cast aside without concern or care for your
life savings, your well being, or the well being of any of
your investments. This is a cycle that repeats itself over
and over with governments and fiat currencies." (5)
2005-2006
If our first and only court-appointed president wins
the election of 2004 (or his beneficiaries find reason to
declare Martial Law), the social disintegration will
accelerate dramatically. No matter who is in the White
House by 2005, Pluto's sojourn through late Sagittarius into
early Capricorn indicates a critical need for economic
reform. Excess wealth creates hubris-caused brain damage,
disabling wealthy sufferers from perceiving that money is
the life blood of the whole economic corpus. Their greed is
like a snake devouring its own tail.
In the last great depression, it was Saturn moving
through late Sagittarius into Capricorn (and into a square
with Uranus) which coincided with millions of Americans
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losing their life savings when banks went down. This time,
instead of banks failing, investment funds will disappear
trillions of pension dollars and life savings. By 2005-06,
expect Wall Street insides to be doing that neo-con dance
called, "Take the money and run."
Correlating with Pluto's affliction, we can expect the
coming great depression to be more long-lasting than the
previous four (1930s, 1870s, 1840s, 1780s) coinciding with
Saturn in mid-Capricorn. Pluto's last trip through this
area coincided with the chaotic years leading up to the
American Revolution of 1776, and the one before that
coincided with the chaos of imported diseases which
decimated whole nations of native Americans in the early
1500s.
2007
Pluto, Mars and Jupiter will be the primary stock
market influences. Mars will make exact hits in January,
June and September. Jupiter will come within orb of an
opposition to the US Mars in February and be precisely
opposite by November 7. Pluto in late Sagittarius will
probably bring squabbling among protectors of the status
quo: the brightest may want to tweak the system in order to
save it, but the bullies will probably prevail.
2008
For all this year and into the summer of 2009, Uranus
will move opposite the US Neptune. Pluto, as shown in Chart
4, will briefly square Uranus, then separate and flirt.
Uranus was opposite Sam's Neptune for the Crash of 1920;
this time its effects will be made more powerful by its
square to Pluto. Meanwhile Mars will make direct hits in
August and December.
Notice on Chart 4 for August 1, 2008 that Uranus at 22
Pisces and Pluto at 28 Sagittarius are within orb of a
square. Mars at 18 Virgo is conjunct the US Neptune,
opposite Uranus, square Pluto. This creates a grand cross
pattern affliction to the US Mars/Neptune square, which
indicates a major wipeout for stocks.
Uranus and Mars Afflict
2009: Retrograde Pluto will be temporarily out of
aspect to Uranus but transiting Uranus and Mars will afflict
Sam's Mars/Neptune square for much of this year. Mars and
Uranus are the most militant influences in the Solar System
and, in our time, symbolize the mightiest military the world
has ever known, pitted against individual saboteurs armed
with weapons of mass destruction: a giant whacking a
hornet's nest with a colossal sledge hammer.
2010
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Jupiter will move into opposition to Sam's Neptune in
April, while Mars will be precisely afflicting in July and
November. Pluto will again back out of its square to Uranus
temporarily. This will also mark the nadir of the North
Node's real estate cycle. The world economy is likely to be
sunk in unexpected (Uranus) anxieties by 2011.
The Mayan Calendar cites the Winter Solstice of 2012 as
the completion of a cycle lasting roughly 5,128 of our
years, called the 13 baktun. The Lunation on this day will
afflict Uncle Sam's Mars-square-Neptune. Some have
interpreted this date as "the end of the world." Don't take
that literally. It's more likely that we humans will begin
the process of acquiring a new perception of our situation
here on planet Earth. It was about 5,100 years ago that
mankind developed the ability to communicate spoken language
with written symbols, an advance over hieroglyphics.
Mayan Great Cycle
From a Western astrological perspective, what's most
fascinating is that the Mayan Great Cycle coincides with the
Uranus-Pluto square and grand cross to the US Sun-squareSaturn. All three--the Maya 13 baktun, the affliction of
the Lunation to the US Mars-square-Neptune, and the grand
cross affliction by Uranus and Pluto to the US Sun-squareSaturn--portend radical changes.
In Mayan mythology, the Cosmic Mother gives birth to
the Father of Earthly creation. The Maya symbolized the
Milky Way's dark rift as the Cosmic Mother's vagina through
which is born the First God of our world. John Major
Jenkins points out that "the slow process by which the
Winter Solstice Sun comes to conjoin the dark rift of the
Milky Way is a function of a phenomenon known as the
procession of the equinoxes. This involves the slow
wobbling of the Earth's axis, which causes the stellar frame
to slowly shift. To observers on Earth, it causes the
position of the Winter Solstice Sun to slowly move in
relation to celestial background features such as the Milky
Way. A full cycle is completed in roughly 26,000 years."
Mayan Astrologers
The books and articles of John Major Jenkins are a good
source for more information about Mayan astrologers. "When
it came to mathematics, time and calendars, the Maya were
geniuses. Believing that time repeated itself in cycles,
they devised two calendars, one ritualistic, which was used
for religious celebrations and astrological predictions, and
the other a solar calendar."
As shown on Chart 5 for Winter Solstice 2012, the SunMoon conjunction at 21 Sagittarius is within minutes of an
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exact opposition to Uncle Sam's Mars-square-Neptune.
Mercury at 3 Sagittarius opposite Jupiter at 9 Gemini are
both square Chiron and Neptune in early Pisces, creating a T
square to the US Uranus. The big news, however, is that
Pluto at 8 Sagittarius has moved into 7 degree orb of an
opposition to the US Sun-square-Saturn. Uranus at 4 Aries
is not yet within orb of an opposition to the US Saturn, but
its forward motion will soon bring it there.
Whatever else the cyclical Uranus-Pluto square of 2012
brings, it's likely to have us collectively asking, What is
the economy for? The enrichment of a few, or the well-being
of all?
2014-2015
By 2014, (see Chart 6) what I call "the great depression
grand cross" will be culminating. Mars and Jupiter will have
become part of this grand cross, with Mars at 11 Libra conjunct
the US Saturn, and Jupiter at 14 Cancer conjunct the US Sun.
Note on the chart for this time that Pluto will be at 13
Sagittarius, almost precisely square Uranus at 14 Aries,
putting both tightly opposite the US Sun and Saturn. UranusPluto squares have marked major turning points in American
history going back to the first colony at Jamestown in the early
1600s. More about this below.
By 2014 or 2015, expect the world economy to have gone
through a radical reformation (along with other aspects of our
lives, such as environmental awareness, religion and politics).
Pluto's full range of effects usually manifest in its wake: it's
after Pluto has moved out of a major aspect like this that the
full impact is realized. So if the world economy has not been
transformed by 2015, expect radical change to be underway.
In April 2015 (see Chart 7) an eclipse will join the UranusPluto grand cross with the Sun opposite and the Moon conjunct
the US Saturn. Also notice that T Saturn in Sagittarius is
square T Neptune in Pisces, opposite and square the US
Uranus in Gemini, impacting Uncle Sam's relations with the
world community.
Specifically what radical changes will happen are not
possible to predict because it depends on how we collectively
respond, which depends on the prevailing belief by then.
However, traditional astrology teaches that harsh angles bring
changes that put into balance what is out of balanced.
Economically, the big imbalance now is the horrendous
disparity between the wealthy few and the starving many.
Blowback
The two forces poised to clash are corporate autocracy
and political democracy. What we have now is really
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plutocracy disguised as democracy, for it is the rich few who
control governance. Capitalism, as Karl Marx pointed out,
makes the rich richer and the poor poorer.
Notice on the evening news that it's the poor who are
slaughtered by militaries with weapons bought by US "foreign
aid"--our tax dollars at work. From Palestine to the jungles of
Colombia, it's refugees and impoverished peasants who are
bombed, sprayed and gunned down. The message is clear:
those who do not profit the American Corporate Empire are
expendable. Action creates reaction: sooner or later we'll get
the blowback.
A reformation and further refinement of democracy is the
obvious answer to this imbalance. But that will bring what
conservative protectors of the status quo fear most: a
redistribution of wealth. Wealthy conservatives control
politicians, who in turn control the military.
Uranus-Pluto History
I base this forecast on the past history of Uranus-Pluto
squares. The previous one coincided with the great depression
of the 1930s. The one before that coincided with the great
depression of the 1870s, and the one before that the landmark
events of 1820-21. Pluto was in Sagittarius square Uranus in
Pisces during the French and Indian War, which led to the
social upheavals culminating in the American Revolution of
1776. During the Uranus-Pluto square of the 1670s, an event
called Bacon's Rebellion occurred in the Colony of Virginia:
African slaves and English indentured servants burned down
Jamestown. During the early years of the Jamestown Colony,
the Uranus-Pluto square of 1619 coincided with the
introduction of African slaves into what would become the
USA.
The Uranus-Pluto square upcoming will make seven direct
hits between 2012 and 2015. Before that, beginning in 2008,
it will move in and out of a 7 degree orb, then will linger within
orb till 2019. Unless my research is faulty, one has to go back
to before the birth of Christ to find a Uranus-Pluto square as
long-lasting as this.
On Chart 8 for January 2019, notice that Uranus at 28
Taurus is parting from a beneficent trine to Pluto at 21
Capricorn. Meanwhile, Saturn has moved to 14 Capricorn
square Mars at 15 Aries to form the great depression grand
cross with the US Sun-square-Saturn. If we have collectively
succeeded in reforming our economic system by this point,
we'll breeze through this period without major angst, for Mars
will move swiftly beyond this square. Because of the affliction
to Uncle Sam's Mars/Neptune square by Neptune, Venus and
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the Moon on this day, one final adjustment may be needed to
whatever new financial system has arisen by this time. On the
other hand, if we have not addressed the wealth imbalance by
2019, we might experience the kind of great depression which
followed the American Revolution, when the paper money paid
soldiers became worthless.
Summary
We are embarked on a stormy economic sea now, headed
into worse. How much worse depends on how we collectively
respond to the symphony of synchronicities brought by, first,
Pluto's long affliction of the US Mars/Neptune square, and then
by the great depression grand cross formed by Uranus and
Pluto to the US Sun/Saturn square. By 2010, the real estate
cycle will be bottoming out, and the euro may have replaced
the dollar in international trade, which could cause what one
wag called "the Mexification of the USA."
We can avoid the worst by changing the economic system
so that it spreads the wealth, but that's not likely. Suggesting
to true-believer conservatives that the present economic
system must change is like telling the Pope there was no
immaculate conception. Belief trumps evidence: Protectors of
the status quo aren't likely to allow the evidence to alter their
beliefs, and they control our military. Silver-spoon guys are
educated to glorify Empire. They like to compare modern
America to ancient Rome. My point is that they have come to
empire-building too late in the evolution of humankind.
The approximately 250-year Pluto cycle dooms protectors
of the status quo in any case because change is the only
constant. Pluto will have had its way by 2020. Let's hope that
our collective common sense will take us swiftly through the
worst.
Coming out of the last great depression, following W.W.II,
an economic period called the Virtuous Circle was created,
along with social reforms (unemployment compensation, social
security, the GI Bill, etc.) which greatly lifted the well-being of
the general population. It was called the Virtuous Circle
because there was a balance between the competing interests
of wealthy investors, management, and workers/consumers.
There was an awareness of economic interdependence.
Although harsh planetary angles formed during this period,
stock markets didn't crash and the overall economy sailed on
without major disruption. Now conservatives are undoing the
socially-beneficial legislation created then, making us more
vulnerable to the next cyclical economic downturn.
I have not touched upon such impending catastrophes as
global warming and environmental degradation. But I would
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like to mention this: If we return to the beliefs of the original
Americans and perceive the Great Capitalist as Mother Earth,
we'll launch ourselves into a new level of peace and prosperity.
If we all work for Mother Earth, she'll reward us with big
paydays and plenty of time to party and philosophize.
Endnotes:
1. "Real Estate Business Cycles: Henry George's Theory of the
Trade Cycle," by Fred E. Foldvary, Latvia University of
Agriculture, Presented at the Lafayette College Henry George
Conference, June 13, 1991.
2. See www.fingerfolk.com/fraudalerts.
3. The Economist Magazine, November 21, 2002.
4. "The Real But Unspoken Reasons for the Iraq War" by W.
Clark, Independent Media Center, www.indymedia.org:8081.
5. "Pop Goes the Bubble - Part III. Sell Dollars, Buy Gold Now,"
by M. A. Nystrom, January 23, 2003, www.depression2tv.
Chart 1
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Chart 2
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Chart 3
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Chart 4
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Chart 5
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Chart 6
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Chart 7
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Chart 8