PRM Quest
PRM Quest
2011 EDITION
U P D AT E D - J A N U A R Y - 2 0 1 3
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PRMIA
ASSOCIATE PRM CERTIFICATE Covers the core concepts of risk management, allowing
non-specialists to interpret risk management information and reports, make critical
assessments, and evaluate the implications and the limitations of such results.
Inin
W W W. P R M I A . O R G
oin thousands of other risk professionals dedicated to advancing the standards of the risk profession worldwide by becoming a Sustaining member of PRMIA. This exclusive membership
provides the highest level of benefits, discounts, and opportunities available. Visit
http://www.prmia.org/membership or email support@prmia.org to become a member or
to learn more.
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finance theory, the financial instruments that provide tools for the mitigation or transfer of risk,
and the financial markets in which instruments are traded and capital is raised.
This Self-Study Guide helps in focusing your study on the key Learning Outcome Statements from each
chapter. These Learning Outcome Statements form the basis for the questions asked during the PRM
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examination. We recommend that you first read the chapter, then review the Learning Outcome Statements, then re-read the chapter with particular emphasis on these points.
We recommend strongly that you do not simply read the Learning Outcome Statements and then try to
find the information about each in the books as a short-cut way of preparing for the exam. Real-life risk
management requires your ability to assemble information from many simultaneous inputs and you
can expect that some exam questions will draw from multiple Learning Outcome Statements.
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Taking the PRM qualification, as well as working as a risk officer, requires a certain amount of mathematical expertise. This is not excessive. Anyone who was passed mathematics studies at advanced high
school level, or who has completed the first year of a university degree in a mathematical-based qualification (physics, economics, engineering, etc) should have no problem with the requirements. For others,
we recommend that they take tuition in the mathematics required and that they focus on this as the
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
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Please remember that the exams of the PRM certification are very challenging.
Overview
p. 1
After all its a higher standard in risk certification and you would expect nothing
p. 4
less. There is no guarantee that using the Self-Study Guide, in combination with
Exam I
p. 4
the reading materials and Sample Exams will give you a passing score. But, they
Exam II
p. 7
should all provide you with assistance in doing your best. We wish you much suc-
Exam III
p. 9
Exam IV
p. 12
Answers
p. 14
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WORD DEFINITIONS
In this guide, we use Command Words. These are similar to those used by the CFA Institute, with a few
additional words, and indicate levels of ability expected from successful candidates on each Learning
Outcome Statement.
Calculate
Characterize
Compare
Construct
Contrast
Deconstruct
Define
Derive
To obtain by reasoning.
Describe
Differentiate
Discuss
Draw
Explain
Identify
List
To enumerate.
Show
State
To express in words.
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O VE RVIEW
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SAMPLE EXAM QUESTIONS
he following sample questions should give you a flavor for the format and content of the actual
exams. They are only part of the length of the actual exams and therefore do not cover all subjects
contained in the detailed content descriptions provided in this Study Guide. Questions on any of the
subjects listed in the Study Guide documents may appear on the actual exam.
1.
Assume you live in a CAPM world and the expected return on the market portfolio is 9%, while the risk free
rate is 3%. If the beta of stock A is 1.3, the expected return on A is:
a) 14.7%
b) 12.9%
c) 10.8%
d) 16.8%
2.
3.
4.
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5.
A fixed income instrument will pay 12-month Libor on a 1,000 Swiss Francs(CHF) face value two times: one
year from today and two years from today (no principal payment). The rates are set in arrears (payments at
the end of a year reflect the Libor rate at the beginning of the year). What is the price of this instrument if
the (zero-coupon) two-year CHF swap curve is a 3% for all maturities?
a) CHF 57.4
b) CHF 1000
c) CHF 1067
d) CHF 67.6
6.
In a long option straddle strategy, where one buys a put and a call simultaneously at the same strike, the
following is true:
a) Delta will be zero, regardless of the level of the spot price
b) Gamma will be the highest at the money and approaching maturity
c) Delta will be near to 1 at the money and approaching maturity
d) Gamma will be zero at the money and approaching maturity
7.
8.
If a dealer sells a security to a customer and the customer pledges to resell that security to the dealer,
the dealer calls the trade:
a) A reverse repo
b) A forward sale
c) A repo
d) A reverse forward
9.
A gas market maker (MM) has agreed to deliver gas at $3/MMBtu 6 months from now. The spot price for
gas is $2.50/MMBtu, the 6 month forward price is $2.75/MMBtu, the interest rate is 6% and storage cost is
$0.03/month per MMBtu. The MM is confident that the price would be $2.70 six months from now. Given
the MMs market view, what is the best strategy for the MM to meet its obligation?
a) Buy on the spot market
b) Buy the forward
c) Do nothing
d) MM is indifferent between c) and b)
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10.
Assume the following price curve for crude oil in bbl and ignore the time value of money.
Month
Price
$21
$22
$23
$24
$25
$26
A customer wants a tailored six month swap with constant volumes but request the fixed price for the last
two months to be set at $20/bbl. What must be the fixed price for the first four months?
a) Not determinable
b) 26.0
c) 23.7
d) None of the above
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1.
Find a linear polynomial p(x) that is a tangent-line approximation for the function: (x) = exp(2x 4)
at the point x0 = 3.
a) 14.778x 36.945
b) 7.389x + 2.718
c) 2.718x
d) 14.778x + 0.018
xex
dx
2.
3.
4.
a) 5.437
b) 26.799
c) 21.285
d) 7.389
1 2
0 0.5
b)
1 -1
0 0.5
1 2
0 2
c)
0.5 -1
0 1
d)
1 -1
0.5 0
5. What can we say about the sum X + Y of two independent normal random variables X and Y:
a) It is normal only if X and Y have the same mean
b) It is always normal
c) It is chi-squared
d) It is chi-squared if X and Y both have mean 0
6. What is the formula for the skewness of a random variable x that has mean and standard deviation ?
2
a) E ([ x ] )
2
4
b) E ([ x ] )
4
3
c) E ([ x ] )
3
4
d) E ([ x ] )
E ([ x ]4)
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7.
8.
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.25 = 0
.25 = 1
.50 = 2
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1.
Under the standard parametric VaR methodology, which of the following assumptions is true?
a) Returns follow a log normal distribution
b) Log returns follow a normal distribution
c) Mean log return is zero for daily VaR
d) All of the above
2.
Under the RiskMetrics cashflow mapping method for interest rates, price volatility is required. The formula
to convert yield volatility (expressed as a percentage of current yield) to price volatility is:
y
Y
a) Price Vol ( ) = Modified Duration (MD) x interest rate (Y) x Yield Vol (y)
b) Price Vol (p ) = MD x
c) Price Vol (p ) = MD x y
d) Price Vol ( p ) = MD x (1 + Y) x q y
3.
For EWMA (Exponentially Weighted Moving Average), using a decay factor of 0.94 and a tolerance level of
1% (i.e. excluding exponential weights below 1%), the effective number of data points used to estimate the
covariance matrix is:
a) 74
b) 150
c) 100
d) 250
4.
The portfolio has one risky bond from company A. Company A is a subsidiary of XYZ and if XYZ defaults
Company A does so too. The probability of default of XYZ is 0.3 and the probability of company A going into
bankruptcy without XYZ defaulting is 0.5. What is the probability of having a default on the risky bond?
a) Cannot be determined
b) 0.60
c) 0.70
d) None of the above
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5.
Assuming independence and a recovery rate of 70%, what is the expected loss on the following portfolio?
Face value of the bond
Probability of Default
Bond A
0.4
Bond B
2,000 EUR
0.3
a) 300 EUR
b) 900 EUR
c) 1,000 EUR
d) None of the above
6.
How is the loss given default incorporated in the CreditMetrics Technical Document?
a) The document does not consider it
b) By a parameterized distribution
c) By a look up table
d) By a constant
7.
8.
What is the one-year transition matrix assuming only two categories [i.e. default (d) and non-default (nd)]
from a portfolio with 300 loans and the following payment history?
a)
10
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
0.7
0.3
b)
0.9
0.1
c)
0.9
0.1
0.1
0.9
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d)
0.3
0.7
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9.
The Merton (1974) model implies that a position in a credit-sensitive bond is equivalent to:
a) A long position in the firms equity and a short position in a risk-free bond
b) A long put and a long call position on the firms assets
c) A long position in a credit-risk-free bond and a short put on the firms assets
d) An up-and-in call on a credit-risk-free bond and a short call on the firms equity
10.
Given a one-year probability of default of 20%, what would be the cumulative probability of default for the
bond for the three years?
a) 45.4%
b) 48.8%
c) 60.5%
d) None of the above
11.
The Bank for International Settlements, Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, has defined Operational
risk as The risk of loss due to inadequate or failed internal processes, people, and systems, or from
external events. This definition excludes:
a) Reputational risk
b) Strategic risk
c) Legal risk
d) a) and b)
12.
The Bank for International Settlements, Basel Committee on Banking Supervision recommends the
operational risk management process at the corporate and business unit levels to be validated by:
a) Audit
b) A committee of the board of directors
c) A designated member of senior management
d) None of the above
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EXAM IV CASE STUDIES, PRMIA STANDARDS OF BEST PRACTICE, CONDUCT AND ETHICS
1.
Which position would have partially hedged Nick Leesons primary option position at Barings?
a) Long futures
b) Short Strangle
c) Long Strangle
d) Total Return Swap
2.
3.
4.
In the Metallgesellschaft case, what was the communication problem between the subsidiary and the
parent company?
a) They did not communicate the loss as soon as it started to kick in
b) They did not communicate the intrinsic bet on the price of gas
c) They did not explain the economics of the strategy
d) They did not explain why they had to buy more future contracts
5.
The strategy of getting creditors to lend money and invest equity in LTCM had the effect of:
a) Increasing transparency to the creditors
b) Reducing leverage
c) Giving LTCM partners a put on the value of the fund
d) No relevant effect as equity and debt offset each other
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6.
7.
8.
9.
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ANSWERS
Exam I
Exam II
Exam III
Exam IV
1. c
1. a
1. c
1. c
2. d
2. b
2. a
2. b
3. b
3. c
3. a
3. d
4. d
4. b
4. d
4. c
5. a
5. b
5. a
5. c
6. b
6. c
6. b
6. b
7. c
7. d
7. a
7. d
8. c
8. c
8. b
8. d
9. c
9. c
9. a
10. d
10. b
10. a
11. d
12. a
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