A. Circular Flow of Income: Unit Two
A. Circular Flow of Income: Unit Two
( From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Circular_flow_of_income.JPG )
C. Macroeconomic Measurement
1. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The most closely watched statistic, GDP is the aggregate
output (the total market value of all final goods and services produces in a nation in a year). GDP
is not a measure of the number of goods and services produces, but rather the market value. It
measures (depending on the calculation method used) either the total income of everyone in the
United States or the total expenditures of everyone in he United States. Both values should be
equal.
The total expenditures of the U.S. can be calculated using the formula:
C + I + G + NX = GDP
Where C is consumption, I is investment, G is government spending, and NX is net exports.
Consumption measures households contribution to GDP. It includes spending on goods and
services, taxes (income, ad valorem, property, etc), and savings. Investment measures to
contribution of businesses and firms to GDP. This value includes salaries, resources, capital
goods (equipment), profit, and interest. Government spending describes the governments
spending, and encompasses all government purchases. Net exports measures the portion of GDP
attained from the foreign sector. This figure is determined by subtracting what we buy (import)
from what we sell (export). Therefore, if the U.S. imports more than she exports, the net exports
value will be negative.
The total income of everyone in the U.S. can be calculated using the formula:
Compensation of employees (wages, pensions, etc.) + rents (any use of buildings) + interest +
proprietors income (profit) + corporate profits + indirect business taxes (tariffs) + consumption
of fixed capital (depreciation) + net foreign factor (overseas business) = GDP
Either way GDP is calculated, it does not include illegal purchases, transfer payments (Social
Security checks, welfare payments, veterans payments, disability), the stock market, or second
hand sales (used cars and used houses).
GDP should not be the ultimate measure of success because it does not include nonmarket
activities (subsistence farming), leisure hours vs. work hours, quality improvements,
underground activities, the effect on the environment, composition and distribution of output,
and noneconomic sources of well-being (the crime rate, birth rate, etc.).
2. Economic Growth economic growth is measured as the percent increase in real GDP
(GDPr). Real GDP is not the same as nominal GDP, which is the named GDP. Real GDP is
nominal GDP after it has been adjusted for inflation. Real GDP can be calculated using the
formula: Real GDP = Nominal GDP/Price Index
3. Price Level Price Level is also known as price index. Price index measures the cost of goods
and services in an area at a certain time. Various price indexes can be used to compare how
prices change over time and regions. This value can be calculated using the formula:
Price Index = (Cost in Target Year/Cost in Base Year) x 100
4. Employment Employment is measured using the civilian unemployment rate, which is
derived from a national survey. The survey encompasses some 60,000 households and the
monthly employment status of its inhabitants over age 16 (the adult population). The survey
consists of three categories: employed, unemployed, and not in the labor force. One might be
classified as unable not in the labor force because of old age, inability to work, or choosing to
not work. The unemployed and employed constitute the labor force.
(http://www.oph.gov.au/images/upload/personalitieshoward1.gif)
2. Different price indexes- Inflation is most commonly measured by the Consumer Price Index
(CPI). This index is created by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) each month and year. The
government then reports the CPI rates to adjust income tax brackets and Social Security benefits.
The CPI takes the top 300 goods and services purchased by the common urban consumer in
American to find the current general price level. These goods and services are know as the
market basket. The expense pattern of the common consumer is measured over the course of
one year. As price levels and inflation percentages fluctuate from year to year, different price
indexes are reported.
Price indexes are measured with this formula.
Price index = (Cost of Market Basket in Target Year / Cost in Base Year) x 100
The total cost is calculated by multiplying the number of units of the goods and services in the
market basket by the price of each good or service.
Below is the United States Consumer Price Index from September 2006 to March 2007. Note the
types of goods and services that make up the market basket.
(http://www.usa.xorte.com/0,4,US-Consumer-Price-Index-in-March-2007,1274.html)
3. Nominal vs. real quantities- Nominal income is the amount of dollars received by a consumer
through wages, rent, profits, or interest. Real income is expressed as the amount of goods or
services that can be bought with the amount of nominal income obtained. Due to different prices
levels, real income is forced to be adjusted by inflation. The quantity of goods or services
received is a direct example of the purchasing power of the dollar in an economy.
Real income = [nominal income] / [price index (in hundredths)]
Real income will remain the same while nominal income and the price index rise together at
same rate.
In the Graph below, the Real and Nominal Price Indexes from 1862 to 1992 are shown. The
darker/thicker line represents the Real. The lighter/skinnier line represents the Nominal.
[[Unit Two|]]
(http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2005/09/index.html)
Source:
Economics: Principles, Problems, and Policies (McConnell & Brue)
E. Unemployment
1. Unemployment rate
The unemployment rate is the percentage determined by dividing the total number of employable
people looking for jobs by the total number of employable people. This percentage is determined
monthly in a survey by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The current rate of unemployment for the
United States is 4.7%, which means that about 7.2 million people in our country are unemployed
of a possible 146.7 million. Below is a graph of the change in U.S. unemployment since 1948.
3. Types of unemployment
Unemployment is when a person has no job, is available to work, and is actively searching for a
new job.
There are three main types of unemployment:
1. Frictional Unemployment - Frictional unemployment is when a person is in between jobs and
is searching for a new job. An example is a law school graduate who is looking for a private firm
to join.
2. Structural Unemployment - This type of unemployment occurs when a person does not have
the correct skill set for a job. An example is a pizza delivery person who is laid off when a
teleporter is invented (hopefully soon). This person cannot get another job if his/her only skill is
to deliver pizza.
3. Cyclical Unemployment - A person is laid off or cannot get a job due to a downturn in the
economic cycle (hence the name). The employer cannot afford the employee because there is not
enough demand for a good or service. An example is a laid off auto worker when the economy is
in a recession.
For more information on the latest unemployment rate or rate of labor force participation visit
the Bureau of Labor Statistics at: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
Are you unemployed and on the hunt for a job? Maybe you could use a few tips!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oqFfivzcmcw&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GniH_akPvKQ&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IcqCLdZtKh0&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U35CVFbtOs4
F. Business Cycles
Business cycles are also referred to as economic cycles and they help explain the fluctuations in
the economy. Economists can also use business cycles to predict the future economic conditions
by analyzing trends. Periods of economic prosperity and growth are displayed by a peak on the
business cycle and periods of economic stagnation or recession are displayed by a trough.
1. Phases of the business cycle - the business cycle really has 4 phases: the contractionary phase,
the trough, the expansionary phase, and the peak. As displayed in the picture, when real GDP
declines, the economy experiences a contraction (or recession). At the lowest point of the
economy, the business cycle hits a trough. The economy then starts to recover and grow, which is
referred to as expansion. The peak of expansion is when the economy is at it's greatest strength
and this is called the peak. these cycles repeat in varying ways due to varying variables.
2. Definition of recession - A recession is often mixed up with a depression and the terms are
very similar. A recession is two consecutive periods of decline in real GDP. A depression is a
drawn out recession with severe decline.
user-14387
Economics Game
Lindsey08 Jan 2, 2008
help the economist!
http://www.mindjolt.com/game.jsp?gameKey=Z7Q4KVU0GUZ5MPTL
With the rising cost of milk, eggs, meat and produce contributing to the biggest jump in food
prices in 17 years, consumers are starting to feel the pinch.
Some shoppers, already dealing with falling home values and rising fuel costs, are finding
creative ways to save, opting for cheaper ingredients and private-label goods and leaning more
heavily on discount grocers. And restaurant diners, who have been eating out less frequently, will
likely face even higher prices on menus.
For Christmas dinner, Karen Littleton, a 54-year-old freelance writer in San Antonio, says she
bought a huge salmon fillet at discount retailer Costco Wholesale Corp. rather than an "exquisite
fish," such as Chilean sea bass, from a local grocery store.
She says she loves to prepare gourmet dishes, but "I'm using cheaper foods and having to be
more imaginative with how I put them together. ... I used to use eight or 10 ingredients in just a
sauce, but those days are over."
Many of the price increases seem small on a per-item basis. The average retail price of a dozen
eggs went up 38% to $1.86 in November from a year earlier; a gallon of milk rose 30% to $3.90;
and whole-wheat bread rose 12% to $1.78 per pound, meaning a 24-ounce loaf of bread now
costs, on average, $2.67. But the costs can add up on a weekly grocery bill. Overall, food prices
as measured by the consumer price index rose at a 5.3% seasonally adjusted annual rate through
November, compared with a 2.4% rise for all of 2006. That is the biggest increase since 1990.
Food prices are rising for a number of reasons. A growing middle class in Latin America and
Asia can afford more meat and milk, which has driven up demand for grain to feed cattle and
hogs. A drought in Australia in 2006 reduced the supply of milk available to Asia, further
pushing up the cost. Rising global demand for U.S. wheat and poor harvests in other wheatproducing countries caused wheat prices to soar to record levels last year.
Demand for grain-derived ethanol, driven by government incentives, has helped push up corn
and soybean prices, which in turn have raised the cost of many products derived from those
crops, such as oils and high-fructose corn syrup, a sweetener used in everything from soft drinks
to ketchup. To top it off, rising fuel costs are making it more expensive to transport food from the
producers to stores and restaurants.
'Everything's Going Up'
"Between weather conditions, fuel charges and labor, everything's going up," says Sandy Levine,
vice president of Carnegie Deli in New York, which will be raising prices on several menu items
this year. A slice of cheesecake will cost $8.50, up from $8, and coleslaw will cost $4.50 instead
of $4. The deli processes its own meat, but with produce, Mr. Levine says, "I can't buy direct. It
has to be trucked across the country from California or Florida."
For the past several months, food manufacturers including General Mills Inc. of Minneapolis and
Sara Lee Corp. of Downers Grove, Ill., have been passing along their higher costs to retailers,
which in turn have been passing them along to consumers. In addition to basics like bread,
cereal, cheese and eggs, nonessentials such as chewing gum, chocolate and ice cream also have
become more expensive.
Last week, an 18-ounce box of Kellogg's Corn Flakes cost $4.29 at an Albertsons in Lake
Havasu City, Ariz. The same box at a nearby Safeway cost $3.79, while it cost $3.43 at a nearby
Smith's, a chain owned by Kroger Co. Each store offered an in-house brand, which varied in
price across the three stores from $1.89 to $2.79. Other private-label goods were priced at a
significant discount. A 7.25-ounce box of Kraft Macaroni and Cheese Premium Thick 'n Creamy
cost $1.69 at Smith's, while the store-brand competitor made by Kroger cost 49 cents.
Phyllis Hoag, an interior-design consultant shopping last week at a Smith's in Lake Havasu City,
said she now plans many of her family's meals around what's on sale. After reviewing the weekly
specials, she scooped up six T-bone steaks for $3.99 a pound. "Usually they're $9.99," Ms. Hoag,
47, said as she pushed her cart down the pasta aisle. "I just try to shop with ads and stock my
cupboards with dry goods that are on really good deals."
Passing Along Increases
Some large conventional supermarket chains such as Kroger and Safeway Inc., which have
passed along most of the price increases in food products, say they haven't felt a negative impact
on their sales. "In our view, periods of modest inflation [are] a positive for our business, because
inflation tends to improve sales," Kroger CEO David Dillon told analysts in December.
And not all food items have gone up in price: The average price of red delicious apples remained
flat, as did the price of malt beverages. But food analysts are predicting that the prices of most
food products are likely to continue to rise throughout 2008.
Carol Skusek, a mother of two teenage boys in Temecula, Calif., says she is buying cheaper cuts
of meat to pare her grocery bill. "If I buy a chuck roast instead of a rump roast and just cook it
longer in some sort of broth, it's just as tender," says Ms. Skusek, 47. She shops at a nearby
Stater Bros. grocery store just before it closes at 11 p.m., when butchers often slash the price of
meat that is near its sell-by date rather than throw it away. "I recently got hamburger for 99 cents
a pound, and it's normally over $3 a pound," she said. She is also shopping more at a discount
grocer, WinCo Foods.
That shift appears to be helping Wal-Mart Stores Inc., which recently said its rate of food
inflation is lower than that of the rest of the grocery industry. During an earnings conference call
in November, Eduardo Castro-Wright, chief executive of Wal-Mart's U.S. business, told
investors: "Our grocery business, including pharmacy, was strong throughout the quarter, and
Supercenter food sales grew by more than 13%."
Restaurants have had a hard time passing along price increases because consumers already had
cut back on dining out due to rising gasoline prices and declining home values.
Burger King Corp. raised its prices 1% in July. McDonald's Corp. said in October it raised prices
by about 3.5% during the previous year and will continue to adjust for higher dairy and chicken
costs. Some McDonald's franchisees have raised prices of items on the company's Dollar Menu
above the $1 mark. At one Chicago restaurant, for example, that menu has been renamed "Dollar
Menu & More," and includes a $1.29 double cheeseburger and $1.49 chicken snack wrap.
Angel Crawford, a 49-year-old Chicago resident, says she visits McDonald's every day for
breakfast and other meals but has been staying away from the higher-priced items on the Dollar
Menu & More section. "I don't buy them because they went up," she says.
$12.99 for Chicken Wings
Wing Zone Franchise Corp., a chain of 103 restaurants in the Southeast, instituted an 8% price
increase in August and will try not to raise prices again during the first six months of 2008.
"There isn't a single product in our restaurant that hasn't gone up in cost from the vendor," says
Wing Zone founder and CEO Matt Friedman.
Now, an order of 20 chicken wings costs $12.99 instead of $11.99 -- and that has cost Mr.
Friedman some customers. Between September and December, Wing Zone saw its customer
count go down by 2% to 3%.
Federal Reserve a freer hand to reduce short-term interest rates to prevent a broader recession.
The Fed has already lowered its target short-term interest rate three times since September to
4.25% from 5.25%.
But its choices are getting harder by the day. Minutes from the Fed's December meeting, released
yesterday, noted that even as policy makers acknowledged the potential need for more rate cuts,
some worried that increases in commodity prices "may put renewed upward pressure on
inflation." Even though the U.S. economy is weak, demand for commodities is strong outside the
U.S.
The ISM's report underscored the dilemma. Even as customer orders shrank, many
manufacturers had to pay their own suppliers more. While 43% of manufacturers reported they
paid higher prices last month; only 7% said prices fell. One chemical producer reported "a large
volume of price increase notices," while a metals company said "higher raw material prices are
squeezing margins."
"The signs are pretty persuasive that we have an inflation problem," says James Grant, editor of
Grant's Interest Rate Observer.
Investors still don't seem to think this will tie the Fed's hands. Futures markets showed investors
now seem assured of another rate cut in January. A steeper run in oil and gold prices, however,
might eventually change their minds.
Monsanto Is Beneficiary of Price Boom in Grains
Oil and gold aren't the only commodities shooting up. Grain prices have also surged, largely due
to rising demand for corn-based ethanol, the gasoline substitute.
That's been a boon for chemical and fertilizer makers, the best-performing sector in the Standard
& Poor's 1500 index in 2007. It rose 108%.
Today's fiscal first-quarter earnings report by Monsanto will be an early look at one of the
stronger performers in the sector. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial expect the seed and
chemical maker to post earnings excluding some one-time items of 35 cents a share, more than
doubling last year's 16-cent profit.
Monsanto has enjoyed big growth in its DeKalb corn seed line, which captured 23% of the North
American seed market in 2007, up from 10% in 2001, according to Morningstar. Corn prices
were up 15% in December from a year earlier. The federal government's latest energy bill
broadens mandates for ethanol production.
This makes Monsanto one stock that is benefiting from pressures hurting the rest of the market.
It also makes it a place to look for signs of the next big market bubble.
over burdened by debt, they declare bankruptcy, introducing uncertainty to the creditors and
robbing them of their rightful income.
Somehow it is difficult to feel compassion for the "rich creditors" but everyone with a bank
account is a creditor. How would you like it if someone who owed you money failed to pay you
back? Or you were never sure if you would be able to take your money out of the bank? What
would this uncertainty do? You would probably be less likely to put money in. Banks feel the
same way, if the chances of being repaid decrease they are less likely to make loans and that
decreases the health of the overall economy.
Rapidly falling or rising inflation is usually a sign of a suffering economy with high
unemployment and a lack of spending power (i.e. recession/ depression). But it is the change that
is the problem not the altitude (or lack of it).
The Historical Inflation Rates show that even when we have had price deflation (falling prices)
the country has been prosperous if the reason for the falling prices is that goods are being
produced so economically that prices can fall and producers can still make a profit. This
generally occurs after major productivity enhancements like the invention of the assembly line or
the completion of the transcontinental railroad.
Disinflationary pressures in the late 1990s and early 2000s were most likely the result of cheap
productive capacity in China and other former communist countries coupled with the
deflationary forces of the 9/11 attack and the stock market crash.
Discussion Reply
This article posted on www.inflationdata.com discusses the many sides to inflation. The writer
first informs the reader that only changing and unsteady inflation rates create uncertainty in an
economy. Overall and gradual rises in inflation actually prevent uncertainty. Decreasing levels of
inflation often force consumers to become financially savvy with their debts. On the other hand,
inflation tends to promote debt. Consumers can then pay off their loans with less money than
they originally owed. As a result, real income is redistributed to borrowers (away from banks and
others holding loans).
Unanticipated inflation is inflation that surpasses the original predicted level. When this occurs,
fixed-income recipients, savers, and creditors are at a loss. Fixed income receivers are hurt when
their real income decreases as inflation increases. Most commonly affected by this process are
retirees. Land lords receiving payments from renters are also at a loss when their fixed renter
rates remain the same while inflation occurs. Workers on fixed salaries are also greatly affected.
Suddenly, their income becomes less valuable, and they can no longer make certain purchases
with rising prices.
Savers are also affected when unanticipated inflation occurs. As inflation lowers the value of the
dollar, the money that has been put away weakens in value also. As a safety cushion, the money
will be fine as long as the rate of inflation does not exceed the interest rate set to the money.
Creditors are just another group affected by unanticipated inflation. Over time, the borrower will
be paying off the debt with a less valuable dollar then the lender had loaned them. Therefore,
creditors are receiving less money then they had originally allowed to be borrowed. Flexibleincome receivers are one of the few that are either unaffected or helped due to inflation. Real
income can be increased when strong product demands and labor shortages occur.
Anticipated inflation is safer for the economy as a whole. When consumers, fixed-income
receivers, savers, creditor, and debtors can see where the inflation rates are heading, money can
be secured. Before an anticipated inflation occurs, lenders can adjust the interest rates on the
loans made to their borrowers.
Deflation is the lowering of the price level. The value of the dollar is raised. Instead of falling
during inflation, real incomes are greater than before. The purchasing power of the dollar
increases, and more money can be spent on goods and services.
I'm awesome
peytonrocks Jan 2, 2008
I put this in unit two because I thought it kind of measured our economic achievement. The US
has become so successful that kitchens are hardly functionary anymore. People just use precooked Costco meals (my family) or cholesterol-raising McDonalds. It's awesome. No more
wasting ridiculous amounts of time on cooking dinner. Now we can watch Oprah at 4 AND Dr.
Phil at 5 instead of cooking. Kitchens used to be all about big stoves and such where women
toiled over cooking meals. Now everything is about looks. I mean, I think stainless steel
refridgerators and dishwashers look lovely. Pretty much the only time anyone cooks is either for
fun (Rachel Ray) or because they don't use electricity (Amish people). It's incredible. I no longer
even have to cook maceroni on the stove. I can pop a bowl of easy mac in the microwave and
have it to eat 3 minutes later. Same with jello. Just mix the powder with water and POW you
have jello. Or better yet, you can go to Taco Bell and order 12 tacos for 70 cents each and not do
anything.
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