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Market Commentary 05.04

The US dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen and solid US jobs data supported expectations the Fed will raise rates. Sterling hit a five-week high versus the euro on a poll showing decreased chances of a UK hung parliament. Australia and UK markets were closed for Easter.
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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
174 views

Market Commentary 05.04

The US dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen and solid US jobs data supported expectations the Fed will raise rates. Sterling hit a five-week high versus the euro on a poll showing decreased chances of a UK hung parliament. Australia and UK markets were closed for Easter.
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKETS CAPITAL MARKETS

CURRENCIES Current Previous Exchanges Current Change


USD / IDR 9,065 9,078 JSX 2,829.996 +52.695
AUD / USD 0.9215 0.9181 Dow Jones 10,927.07 +70.44
USD / JPY 94.35 93.43 COMMODITIES MARKET
EUR / USD 1.3535 1.3497 Commodity Current Change
USD / SGD 1.3980 1.3985 Gold 1,126.50 +12.7
AUD / IDR 8,353 8,334 Oil NYMEX 84.67 +1.19
Monday JPY / IDR 96.08 97.16 Indonesia Government Bond Yield
05 April 2010 12,269
EUR / IDR 12,252 Tenor Current Change
SGD / IDR 6,484 6,491 10 Yr 9.09 -0.01

TREASURY CONTACT FX TECHNICAL


PERSONS: USD/IDR USD/JPY AUD/USD EUR/USD
FX INTERBANK: Intraday Range 9,050 - 9,150 94.00 - 95.00 0.9150 - 0.9250 1.3450 - 1.3600
1 Week Target 9,000 - 9,200 93.50 - 95.50 0.9100 - 0.9300 1.3400 - 1.3650
Lenny Kurniawati 2 Weeks Target 9,000 - 9,200 93.50 - 95.50 0.9100 - 0.9300 1.3400 - 1.3650
Veni Kriswandi
Resistance 2 9,140 95.35 0.9260 1.3640
Resistance 1 9,115 95.00 0.9230 1.3575
Ph: 62–21–5289 7160-5 Support 1 9,050 94.00 0.9180 1.3460
Support 2 9,040 93.30 0.9165 1.3410
TREASURY CLIENT Direction Rangebound Upward Upward Upward
RELATIONSHIP

Indratno
Meike Purwadi
Deasy Rumopa
Helly Jusuf With the dollar squeeze on Friday, downside for the USD/IDR should be limited. Thin
Ivan Soekarma holiday markets should leave the pairing in consolidation around the 9100-handle with
Donny Indra Lukito
Lisda Lemena buoyant equities weighing. Intraday range is seen 9050-9125. High volume of trades in
Gracia Arliyanto the overnight dealt of 9085-9105 with closing at 9075-9100 from opening at 9100-9105.
Paula Wibisono (Surabaya)
Rini Marita Sajoto (Surabaya)
Ellen Suryani (Surabaya)
Weling Wiriyan (Medan)

The dollar firmed to its highest in more than seven months against the yen on today,
PHONE AND FAX NUMBER
extending after generally upbeat jobs data indicates the US economic recovery is on a
Jakarta (62-21) 5296 -1222 solid footing. A solid rise in private sector hiring in the jobs report has led traders to
Fax: (62-21) 52962291 believe the Fed may raise the discount rate again on today when it holds a meeting,
Surabaya (62-31) 3534123 providing support to the dollar. A declaration that China manipulated its currency would
Ext 6291 - 6293
Fax: (62-31) 5315577
trigger negotiations between Washington and Beijing and potentially lead to sanctions if
Bandung (62-22) 4221808 China refused to yield by moving toward a more flexible currency rate. China has
Ext 644 (Franky) amasses huge volumes of foreign reserve in the process of keeping the Yuan’s value
Fax: (62-22) 4221802 pegged to the dollar and its efforts to invest the reserve can cause prices to rise in global
Medan (62-61) 4555630
(direct Weling)
markets. Beijing has kept the Yuan steady since July 2008, after allowing it gradually rise
Fax: (62-61) 4578282 for the previous three years.
ECONOMIC NEWS ACTUAL EXPECT LAST
US Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) (MAR) -55.0% - -77.4%
Reuters dealing: BCOM US Initial Jobless Claims (MAR 27) 439K 440K 445K(R+)
US Continuing Claims (MAR 20) 4662K 4618K 4668K(R+)
US ISM Manufacturing (MAR) 59.6 56.0 56.5
www.commbank.co.id US ISM Prices Paid (MAR) 75.0 67.0 67.0
US Construction Spending (MoM) (FEB) -1.3% -1.5% -0.6%
US Domestic Vehicle Sales (MAR) 9.05M 9.00M 7.91M
PT Bank Commonwealth US Total Vehicle Sales (MAR) 11.77M 12.00M 10.36M
US Average Weekly Hours (MAR) 34.0 33.9 33.9(R+)
Wisma Metropolitan II US Average Hourly Earning (YoY) (MAR) 1.8% 1.9% 2.0%(R+)
3A Floor US Average Hourly Earning (MoM) (MAR) -0.1% 0.2% 0.2%(R+)
Jl. Sudirman 29-31 US Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (MAR) 17K 15K 6K(R+)
Jakarta 12930
US Unemployment Rate (MAR) 9.7% 9.7% 9.7%
Indonesia
US Change in Non-Farm Payrolls (MAR) 162K 184K -14K(R+)
Subsidiary
of Commonwealth
Bank of Australia
! "! # $ % &
Sterling hit a five week high versus the euro, extending the gains, as new poll showed
the chances of a hung parliament decreasing. However, analysts warned structural
issues in the UK economy would hamper investor confidence towards the pound in the
longer term. A poll by Metro/Harris showed the opposition Conservative party with a 10
point lead over the ruling Labor party, which would be enough to give the Conservatives
an overall majority after a general election expected next month. Headline manufacturing
PMI rose more than economist had forecast to its highest level since 1994, when the
economy was also emerging from recession.
Monday UK Market Closed for Easter today.
05 April 2010 ECONOMIC NEWS ACTUAL EXPECT LAST
UK Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAR) 57.2 56.8 56.5(R-)

TREASURY CONTACT
PERSONS: '
Australia Market Closed for Easter today.
FX INTERBANK:

Lenny Kurniawati ECONOMIC CALENDAR


Veni Kriswandi CCY Date GMT NEWS EXPECT LAST
USD 05 Apr 14 : 00 US Pending home Sales (MoM) (MAR) -7.6%
Ph: 62–21–5289 7160-5 USD 05 Apr 14 : 00 US Pending home Sales (YoY) (MAR) 8.8%
USD 05 Apr 14 : 00 US Ism Manufacturing Composite (MAR) 53.3 53.0
AUD 06 Apr 01 : 30 AU ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (MAR) 19.1%
TREASURY CLIENT
RELATIONSHIP

Indratno
Meike Purwadi
Deasy Rumopa AUD/USD MONTHLY CHART
Helly Jusuf
Ivan Soekarma AUD/USD Mar 10 – Apr 10
Donny Indra Lukito
Lisda Lemena
Gracia Arliyanto
Paula Wibisono (Surabaya)
Rini Marita Sajoto (Surabaya)
Ellen Suryani (Surabaya)
Weling Wiriyan (Medan)

PHONE AND FAX NUMBER


Jakarta (62-21) 5296 -1222
Fax: (62-21) 52962291
Surabaya (62-31) 3534123
Ext 6291 - 6293
Fax: (62-31) 5315577
Bandung (62-22) 4221808
Ext 644 (Franky)
Fax: (62-22) 4221802
Medan (62-61) 4555630
(direct Weling)
Fax: (62-61) 4578282

Reuters dealing: BCOM

www.commbank.co.id

PT Bank Commonwealth

Wisma Metropolitan II
3A Floor
Jl. Sudirman 29-31
Jakarta 12930
Indonesia

Subsidiary
of Commonwealth
Bank of Australia
USD/IDR MONTHLY CHART

USD/IDR Mar 10 – Apr 10

Monday
05 April 2010

TREASURY CONTACT
PERSONS:

FX INTERBANK:

Lenny Kurniawati
Veni Kriswandi

Ph: 62–21–5289 7160-5

TREASURY CLIENT
RELATIONSHIP
Source: Bloomberg
Indratno
Meike Purwadi
Deasy Rumopa Disclaimer
Helly Jusuf
Ivan Soekarma
This document is produced by PT Bank Commonwealth Treasury based on information available at the time of
Donny Indra Lukito
publishing. We believe that the information in this report is correct and any opinions, conclusions or
Lisda Lemena
recommendations are reasonably held or made as at the time of its compilation, but no warranty is made as to
Gracia Arliyanto
accuracy, reliability or completeness. PT Bank Commonwealth accepts no liability to any person for loss or
Paula Wibisono (Surabaya)
damage arising from the use of this report. No person should act on the basis of this report without considering
Rini Marita Sajoto (Surabaya)
and if necessary taking appropriate professional advice upon their own particular circumstances.
Ellen Suryani (Surabaya)
Weling Wiriyan (Medan)

PHONE AND FAX NUMBER


Jakarta (62-21) 5296 -1222
Fax: (62-21) 52962291
Surabaya (62-31) 3534123
Ext 6291 - 6293
Fax: (62-31) 5315577
Bandung (62-22) 4221808
Ext 644 (Franky)
Fax: (62-22) 4221802
Medan (62-61) 4555630
(direct Weling)
Fax: (62-61) 4578282

Reuters dealing: BCOM

www.commbank.co.id

PT Bank Commonwealth

Wisma Metropolitan II
3A Floor
Jl. Sudirman 29-31
Jakarta 12930
Indonesia

Subsidiary
of Commonwealth
Bank of Australia

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