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Dry Bulk Ship Planning Service (DSPS) : (1) Economic Assumptions (2) Cargo Demand (3) Supply Response

The document describes MSI's Dry Bulk Ship Planning Service (DSPS), which consists of two products: (1) an interactive Excel-based forecasting model providing historic and forecasted data on over 2,000 dry bulk market time series, and (2) quarterly reports analyzing medium-term market developments and risks. The model forecasts dry bulk cargo demand and supply, vessel operating costs, market balances of fleet capacity and cargo demand, freight rates, and values of dry bulk vessels of different sizes. It allows users to evaluate vessel cash flows, returns, and breakeven points against alternative market scenarios.

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52 views6 pages

Dry Bulk Ship Planning Service (DSPS) : (1) Economic Assumptions (2) Cargo Demand (3) Supply Response

The document describes MSI's Dry Bulk Ship Planning Service (DSPS), which consists of two products: (1) an interactive Excel-based forecasting model providing historic and forecasted data on over 2,000 dry bulk market time series, and (2) quarterly reports analyzing medium-term market developments and risks. The model forecasts dry bulk cargo demand and supply, vessel operating costs, market balances of fleet capacity and cargo demand, freight rates, and values of dry bulk vessels of different sizes. It allows users to evaluate vessel cash flows, returns, and breakeven points against alternative market scenarios.

Uploaded by

AdemEskici
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Dry Bulk Ship Planning Service (DSPS)

MSIs Dry Bulk Ship Planning Service (DSPS) consists of two distinct yet complementary products:
(1) The DSPS Forecasting Model is a fully interactive menu-driven Excel-based modelling system, providing easy access to historic and forecasted data for
over 2,000 key dry bulk market annual timeseries. It is a powerful analysis and simulation tool that enables the use of alternative assumptions to test market
sensitivities and primary risks by modifying a wide range of macroeconomic, supply and demand inputs, and users can evaluate specific vessel cash flows,
NPV, IRR and payback against both MSI and user-generated market scenarios.
(2) The DSPS model lays the foundation for the 70-80 page quarterly DSPS Market Reports, which provide a comprehensive, independent guide to mediumterm market developments, complementing historical and forecast data with in-depth text and charts highlighting and analysing market dynamics and risks.

MSI Sector Forecasting Model Flow

(1) Economic Assumptions

(6) Vessel Operating Costs

(9) Valuation Model

Tel: +44 (0)20 7940 0070

(2) Cargo Demand

(3) Supply Response

(Consumption, Production, Trade)

(Contracting, Scrapping, etc)

(5) Trading Efficiencies


(Speed, Ports, Canals)

(7) Market Balances

(4) Fleet Availability

(Employment Rate, Earnings, Prices)

(Deliveries, Storage, etc)

(8) Shipbuilding Model


(Capacity, Productivity, Costs, Prices)

Email: info@msiltd.com

Dry Bulk Ship Planning Service (DSPS)


Standard Model and Report Content

On Demand / Consultancy Services


(1) Economic Assumptions

Economic assumptions driving the DSPS model forecast include:


- GDP development
- Commodity prices
- Inflation
- Industrial production
- Foreign exchange rates
- Interest rates
- Population trends

High case / low case and scenario building support


Detailed breakdown of shorter-term economic variables used in forecasting (e.g.
housing starts, personal consumption, money supply, inventories)

(2) Cargo Demand


Steel and iron ore demand components broken down by region:
- Steel use intensity
- Steel consumption
- Iron ore consumption
- Crude steel production
- Steel net exports
- Iron ore exports
- EAF share of production - Iron ore production
- Iron ore imports

High frequency data feeds for historical seaborne commodity trade, covering imports, exports and bilateral trades based on a range of sources such as customs
data, port data and vessel movements data.

Iron ore bilateral seaborne trade routes from:


- Australia
- Other Asia
- Brazil
- Other L America
- Canada
- Scandinavia
- India
- S Africa

Regional analysis of key producing and consuming regions and factors influencing
commodity supply and demand.

- Venezuela
- W Africa

Coal demand components broken down by region:


- Electricity generation by fuel type
- Coal imports
- Coal production
- Coal demand by end use
- Coal exports
Coal bilateral seaborne trade routes from:
- Australia
- Colombia
- Canada
- Indonesia
- China
- Poland

Tel: +44 (0)20 7940 0070

Timeseries data on historical regional cargo disposition (consumption broken down


by industry, production, imports, exports, stock changes)

Major swing factors summarising the primary drivers for bulker demand and unpicking key drivers with the largest potential impact on future trade based on volatility of trade.
Analysis of the impact on infrastructure developments (eg ports, canals) on cargo
trades.

- Russia
- S Africa
- USA

Email: info@msiltd.com

Dry Bulk Ship Planning Service (DSPS)


Standard Model and Report Content

On Demand / Consultancy Services

Grain and soya demand components broken down by region:


- Area harvested
- Production
- Exports
- Harvest yield
- Consumption
- End-year stocks
- Per capita use
- Imports
- Soyabean crush
Grain and Soyabean/meal bilateral seaborne trade routes from:
- Argentina
- Europe
- USA
- Brazil
- Former Soviet Union
- Canada
- Oceania
Minor bulk commodities by cargo type:
- Steel scrap
- Zinc ore
- Pig iron
- Lead ore
- Steel semis
- Copper ore
- DRI / HBI
- Bauxite
- Pet coke
- Alumina
- Cement
- Salt
- Manganese ore
- Quarry products
- Nickel ore
- Other minerals
- Chrome ore
- Potash

Trade forecast scenario analysis based on factors such as changing commodity


prices, mining capacity expansions, government policy, weather changes.
Impact analysis of changing cargo trades on vessel Dwt demand by size bracket,
incorporating cargo volumes, distance travelled, vessel speeds, port delays and ballast patterns.
Vessel benchmarking comparing the historical employment trends of a specific
asset against its cohort fleet, in terms of employment patterns, utilisation, speed,
days in port etc.

- Sulphur
- Manuf. fertilisers
- Phosrock
- Sugar
- Oilseed / meal
- Rice
- Tapioca
- Forest products

Analysis of vessel movements data to identify key routes and key growth routes by
cargo by ship size.

Minor bulk bilateral seaborne trade routes (total cargo carried in bulk) from:
- Africa
- Europe
- N America
- Asia
- L America
- Oceania

(3) Supply Response


Standard fleet segments covered:
- 10-40k Dwt
- 40-65k Dwt
- 120k+ Dwt
- Total fleet (10k+ Dwt)
Supply variables covered by segment:
- Newbuilding orders
- Newbuilding cancellations
- Vessel deletions
- End-year Fleet
- Fleet age profile

Tel: +44 (0)20 7940 0070

- 65-120k Dwt

Timeseries data of historical and forecast contracting, deliveries, scrapping, fleet


age profiles and orderbook.
Cohort fleet analysis for specific assets, incorporating factors such as physical characteristics, location of build etc, and comparison of existing ships vs orderbook.

- Newbuilding slippage Supply-side scenario analysis based on quantitative metrics related to future con- End-year orderbook
tracting, scrapping, delivery slippage and cancellations, and vessel/contract conversions.

Email: info@msiltd.com

Dry Bulk Ship Planning Service (DSPS)


Standard Model and Report Content

On Demand / Consultancy Services


(4) Fleet Availability
Assessment of bulkers on orderbook and potential for cancellation based on yard
and/or owner

Fleet availability by vessel segment:


- Newbuilding vessel deliveries
- Fleet deployed in Chinese coastal trade
- Combi carriers employed in dry bulk vs oil trade
- Average annual available capacity

Deliveries disaggregated by design and shipyard


Map orderbook to potential replacement tonnage requirements (based on owner
and age profile of their fleet)
New niche sectors (Ultramax, Newcastlemax etc) and sectors/cargoes/trades they
compete in and for

(5) Trading Efficiencies


Potential for slow steaming and impact on market employment and timecharter
rates.

Trading efficiencies by vessel segment:


- Vessel design and trading speed
- Vessel operating days
- Vessel ballast ratios
- Port time by region (split by cargo type)
- Suez / Panama Canal transit restrictions
- Required Dwt demand by trade (split by cargo type)

Sensitivity analysis for port congestion by region by cargo

(6) Vessel Operating Costs


Vessel operating costs broken down by component and vessel size:
- Crewing
- Repair & Maintenance
- Lubes & Stores
- Insurance
- Administration / overhead

Tel: +44 (0)20 7940 0070

Peer group analysis / benchmarking of client vessel operating costs

Email: info@msiltd.com

Dry Bulk Ship Planning Service (DSPS)


Standard Model and Report Content

On Demand / Consultancy Services

(7) Market Balances


Dry bulk market supply and demand balances by fleet segment:
- Total required Dwt demand (split by cargo type)
- Average annual available Dwt capacity
- Employment rate (%)

Sensitivity analysis of aggregate demand / supply growth on timecharter rates.

1-year T/C rates by vessel size/type:


- 30/35k Dwt
- 40/55k Dwt
- 65/75k Dwt
- 110/130k Dwt
- 150/180k Dwt
- T/C rates for Eco vessels can be found in the model only.

Sensitivity analysis on asset pricing based on newbuilding prices, scrap prices, vessel life expectancy, macroeconomic/demand scenarios and supply side responses

Newbuilding, secondhand (5 / 10 / 15 / 20-year old) and scrap values by vessel size/type:


- 30/35k Dwt
- 40/55k Dwt
- 65/75k Dwt
- 110/130k Dwt
- 150/180k Dwt
- Asset values for Eco vessels can be found in the model only.

Assessment of price / quality differentials between different tiers of yards.

Fixture Analysis (size of stems by cargo, key charterers, upsizing of cargoes).


Voyage cost modelling

Historical transaction analysis, incorporating market liquidity assessments.


Cash flow analysis on potential newbuilding investments.
Assessment of impact of yard quality on secondhand prices / earnings.

Analysis of potential premiums / discounts between new, fuel efficient eco ships.
Overview of key regulatory issues.

The DSPS Model contains a powerful vessel valuation tool that allows users
to evaluate specific vessels, including asset values, cash flows, NPV, IRR and
payback against both MSI and user-generated market scenarios.

(8) Shipbuilding Model


MSI's Shipbuilding Model (SHIPS) is a fully interactive, menu-driven Excel-based modelling system, forecasting newbuilding contracting volumes and prices across all shipping
sectors. Further information about this service can be found here: link

Tel: +44 (0)20 7940 0070

Email: info@msiltd.com

Dry Bulk Ship Planning Service (DSPS)


DSPS Valuation Model Input Screenshot

DSPS Valuation Model Output Data Fields

1.REFERENCE DATA FOR A #### DWT VESSEL


Newbuilding Contracting Price ($ Mn)
0 Year Old Price ($ Mn)

15 Year Old Price ($ Mn)

5 Year Old Price ($ Mn)

20 Year Old Price ($ Mn)

10 Year Old Price ($ Mn)

Scrap Price ($ Mn)

1Yr T/C Rate ($ k/Day) - Modern Vessel

Operating Costs ($ k/Day) - Modern Vessel

2.PROJECT DATA FOR: ####


Age (Years)

Resale Value

Depreciated Value
(i) COST FORECASTS ($ Mn/pa)
Crew

Repair & Maintenance

Lubes & Stores

Administration

P & I Insurance

Total Operating Cost

H & M Insurance
(i) EARNINGS COMPONENTS
Vessel Resale ($ Mn)

Op. Costs ($ k/Day)

Offhire (Days/Year)

User Cost of Capital (%)

1 Yr T/C Rate ($ k/Day)


(ii) INCOME/EXPENSE ($ Mn/pa)
Operating Revenues
(-)Operating Expenses

(+)Vessel Resale

(=)Operating Profit

(=)Net Cash Flows

(-)Capital Outlay

Cumulative Balance
(iii) FINANCIAL RATIOS

Price to Earnings

NPV by Year ($Mn)

IRR by Year

Tel: +44 (0)20 7940 0070

Email: info@msiltd.com

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