How To Analyse Stock Using Simple Ratio
How To Analyse Stock Using Simple Ratio
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When it comes to investing in Bse Nse Stocks, analyzing financial statement if not
the most
important element in the fundamental analysis process. At the same time, the
massive amount of numbers in a company's financial statements can be
bewildering and intimidating to many investors. However, through financial ratio
analysis,you will be able to work with these numbers in an organized fashion.
Among the dozens of financial ratios available, we've that are the most
relevant to the investing process and organized them into six main categories as
per the following list:
1 Liquidity Measurement
Ratios.
1a Current
Ratio
1b Quick
Ratio
1c Cash
Ratio
1d Cash Conversion
4 Operating Performance
Ratios
4a- FixedAssetTurnover
2 Profitability Indicator
Ratios.
2d-ReturnOnEquity
2e- Return On Capital
Employed
5b- Free
CashFlow/Operating Cash
Ratio
5d- Dividend
PayoutRatio
3 Debt Ratios.
3a- Overview OfDebt
3b- Debt Ratio
3c-Debt-EquityRatio
3d- Capitalization
3e- Interest Coverage Ratio
3f- Cash Flow To Debt
Ratio
6Investment Valuation
Ratios
6d- Price/Earnings
Ratio
6e- Price/Earnings To
Growth Ratio
6f- Price/Sales
Ratio
6g- Dividend
Yield
6h- Enterprise Valu
Multiple
The current ratio is used extensively in financial reporting. However, while easy to
understand, it can be misleading in both a positive and negative sense - i.e., a
high current ratio is not
necessarily good, and a low current ratio is not necessarily bad (see chart below).
Here's why: Contrary to popular perception, the ubiquitous current ratio, as an
indicator of liquidity, is flawed because it's conceptually based on the liquidation
of all of a company's current assets to meet all of its current liabilities. In reality,
this is not likely to occur.
Investors have to look at a company as a going concern. It's the time it takes to
convert a company's working capital assets into cash to pay its current
obligations that is the key to its liquidity. In a word, the current ratio can be
"misleading."
A simplistic, but accurate, comparison of two companies' current position will
illustrate the weakness of relying on the current ratio or a working capital number
(current assets minus current liabilities) as a sole indicator of liquidity:
--
Company
ABC
Company
XYZ
Current
Assets
$600
$300
Current
Liabilities
$300
$300
Working
Capital
$300
$0
Current
Ratio
2.0
1.0
Company ABC looks like an easy winner in a liquidity contest. It has an ample
margin of current assets over current liabilities, a seemingly good current ratio,
and working capital of $300.
Company XYZ has no current asset/liability margin of safety, a weak current ratio,
liquidity than the current ratio as it removes inventory from the current assets
used in the ratio's formula. By excluding inventory, the quick ratio focuses on the
more-liquid assets of a company.
The basics and use of this ratio are similar to the current ratio in that it gives
users an idea of the ability of a company to meet its short-term liabilities with its
short-term assets. Another beneficial use is to compare the quick ratio with the
current ratio. If the current ratio
is significantly higher, it is a clear indication that the company's current
assets are dependent on inventory.
While considered more stringent than the current ratio, the quick ratio, because of
its accounts receivable component, suffers from the same deficiencies as the
current ratio - albeit somewhat less. To understand these "deficiencies", readers
should refer to the
commentary section of the Current Ratio chapter. In brief, both the quick and
the current ratios assume a liquidation of accounts receivable and inventory as
the basis for measuring liquidity.
While theoretically feasible, as a going concern
a company must focus on the time it takes to convert its working capital assets
to cash - that is the true measure of liquidity. Thus, if accounts receivable,
as a component of the quick ratio, have, let's say, a conversion time of several
months rather than several days, the "quickness" attribute of this
ratio is questionable.
Investors need to be aware that the conventional
wisdom regarding both the current and quick ratios as indicators of a company's
liquidity can be misleading.
The cash ratio is an indicator of a company's liquidity that further refines both
the current ratio and the quick ratio by measuring the amount of cash,
cash equivalents or invested funds there are in current assets to cover current
liabilities.
1c) Liquidity Measurement Ratios: Cash Ratio
The cash ratio is an indicator of a company's liquidity that further refines both
the current ratio and the quick ratio by measuring the amount of cash,
cash equivalents or invested funds there are in current assets to cover current
liabilities.
Formula:Cash Ratio=cash+cash equivalents+Invested Funds / Current Liabilities
The cash ratio is the most stringent and conservative of the three shortterm liquidity ratios (current, quick and cash). It only looks at the most liquid
This liquidity metric expresses the length of time (in days) that a company uses to
sell inventory,
collect receivables and pay its accounts payable. The cash conversion cycle
(CCC) measures the number of days a company's cash is tied up in the the
production and sales process of its operations and the benefit it gets from
payment terms from its creditors. The shorter this cycle, the more liquid the
company's working capital position is. The CCC is also known as the
"cash" or "operating" cycle.
Formula:Cash Conversion Cycle=DIO + DSO -DPO
Where
DIO = Days Inventory Outstanding
DSO =Days Sales Outstanding
DPO= Days Payable Outstanding
Components:
DIO is computed by:
1.
Dividing the cost of sales (income statement) by 365 to get a cost of
sales per day figure;
2.
Calculating the averageinventory figure by adding the year's
beginning (previous yearend amount) and ending inventory figure (both are
(1) cost
of sales per day
739.4
365 = 2.0
(2)
average
inventory 2005
536.0 +
583.7 = 1,119.7
2 = 559.9
(3) days
inventory
outstanding
559.9
2.0 = 279.9
DIO gives a measure of the number of days it takes for the company's inventory to
turn over, i.e., to be converted to sales, either as cash or accounts receivable.
DSO is computed by:
1.
Dividing net sales (income statement) by 365 to get a net sales per
day figure;
2.
Calculating the average accounts receivable figure by adding the
year's beginning (previous yearend amount) and ending accounts
receivable amount (both figures are in the balance sheet) and dividing by 2
to obtain an average amount of accounts receivable for any given year; and
Dividing the average accounts receivable figure by the net sales per day
figure.
(1) net
sales per day
3,286.1
365 = 9.0
(2)
524.8 +
average accounts 524.2 = 1,049 2
receivable
= 524.5
(3) days
sales outstanding
524.5
9.0 = 58.3
DSO gives a measure of the number of days it takes a company to collect on sales
that go into accounts receivables (credit purchases).
DPO is computed by:
1.
Dividing the cost of sales (income statement) by 365 to get a cost of
sales per day figure;
2.
Calculating the average accounts payable figure by adding the year's
beginning (previous yearend amount) and ending accounts payable amount
(both figures are in the balance
sheet), and dividing by 2 to get an average accounts payable amount for
any
given year; and Dividing the average accounts payable figure by the cost of
sales per day figure.
(1) cost
of sales per day
739.4
365 = 2.0
(2)
average accounts
payable
131.6 +
123.6 = 255.2
125.6
(3) days
payable outstanding
125.6
2.0 = 63
DPO gives a measure of how long it takes thecompany to pay its obligations to
suppliers.
CCC computed:
cash conversion cycle for FY 2005 would be computed with these numbers
(rounded):
DIO
280 days
DSO
+58 days
DPO
-63
days
CCC
275
days
Variations:
Often the components of the cash conversion cycle - DIO, DSO and DPO - are
expressed in terms of turnover as a times (x) factor. For example, in the case of
Company, its days inventory
outstanding of 280 days would be expressed as turning over 1.3x annually (365
days 280 days = 1.3 times). However, actually counting days is more literal and
easier to understand when considering how fast assets turn into cash.
An often-overlooked metric, the cash conversion cycle is vital for two reasons.
First, it's an indicator of the company's efficiency in managing its important
working capital assets; second,
it provides a clear view of a company's ability to pay off its current liabilities.
It does this by looking at how quickly the company turns its inventory into sales,
and its sales into cash, which is then used to pay its suppliers for goods and
services. Again, while the quick and current ratios are more often mentioned in
financial reporting, investors would be well advised to measure true liquidity by
paying attention to a company's cash conversion cycle.
The longer the duration of inventory on hand and of the collection of receivables,
coupled with a shorter duration for payments to a company's suppliers, means
that cash is being tied up in inventory and receivables and used more quickly in
paying off trade payables. If this circumstance becomes a trend, it will reduce, or
squeeze, a company's cash availabilities. Conversely, a positive trend in the cash
conversion cycle will add to a company's liquidity.
By tracking the individual components of the CCC (as well as the CCC as a
whole), an investor is able to discern positive and negative trends in a company's
all-important working capital assets and liabilities.
For example, an increasing trend in DIO could mean decreasing demand for a
company's products. Decreasing DSO could indicate an increasingly competitive
product, which allows a company to tighten its buyers' payment terms.
As a whole, a shorter CCC means greater liquidity, which translates into less of a
need to borrow, more opportunity to realize price discounts with cash purchases
for raw materials, and an increased capacity to fund the expansion of the
business into new product lines and
markets. Conversely, a longer CCC increases a company's cash needs and
negates
all the positive liquidity qualities just mentioned.
Current Ratio Vs. The CCC
The obvious limitations of the current ratio as an indicator of true liquidity clearly
establish a strong case for greater recognition, and use, of the cash conversion
cycle in any analysis of a
company's working capital position.
Nevertheless, corporate financial reporting,investment literature and investment
research services seem to be stuck on using the current ratio as an indicator of
liquidity. This circumstance is similar to the financial media's and the general
public's attachment to the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Most investment
professionals see this index as unrepresentative of the stock market or the
national economy. And yet, the popular Dow marches on as the market indicator
of choice.
The current ratio seems to occupy a similar position with the investment
community regarding financial ratios that measure liquidity. However, it will
probably work better for investors to pay more attention to the cash-cycle concept
as a more accurate and meaningful measurement of a company's liquidity.
2 Profitability Indicator Ratios: Introduction
This section of the tutorial discusses the different measures of
corporate profitability and financial performance. These ratios, much like the
operational performance ratios, give users a good understanding of how well the
company utilized its resources in generating profit and shareholder value.
2a)Profitability Indicator Ratios: Profit Margin Analysis
n the income statement,there are four levels of profit or profit margins - gross
profit, operating
profit, pretax profit and net profit. The term "margin" can apply to the absolute
number for a given profit level and/or the number as a percentage of net
sales/revenues. Profit margin analysis uses the percentage calculation to provide
a comprehensive measure of a company's profitability on a historical basis (3-5
years) and in comparison to peer companies and industry benchmarks.
Basically, it is the amount of profit (at the gross, operating, pretax or net income
level) generated by the company as a percent of the sales generated. The
objective of margin analysis is to detect consistency or positive/negative trends in
a company's earnings. Positive profit margin analysis translates into positive
investment quality. To a large degree,
it is the quality, and growth, of a company's earnings that drive its stock price.
Formulas: Gross Profit Margin=Gross Profit/Net Sales (Revenue)
Operating Profit Margin =Operating Profit/Net Sales (Revenue)
PreTaxProfit Margin=PreTax Profit/Net Sales (Revenue)
Net Profit Margin= Net Income/Net Sales (Revenue)
2b) Profitability Indicator Ratios: Effective Tax Rate
The need for investment in current and non-current assets varies greatly among
companies. Capital-intensive businesses (with a large investment in fixed assets)
are going to be more asset heavy than technology or service businesses.
In the case of capital-intensive businesses, which have to carry a relatively large
asset base, will calculate their ROA based on a large number in the denominator
of this ratio. Conversely,
non-capital-intensive businesses (with a small investment in fixed assets) will be
generally favored with a relatively high ROA because of a low denominator
number.
It is precisely because businesses require different-sized asset bases that
investors need to think about how they use the ROA ratio. For the most part, the
ROA measurement should be used historically for the company being analyzed. If
peer company comparisons are made, it is
imperative that the companies being reviewed are similar in product line and
business type. Simply being categorized in the same industry will not
automatically make a company comparable. Illustrations (as of FY 2005) of the
variability of the ROA ratio can be found in such companies as General Electric,
2.3%; Proctor & Gamble, 8.8%; and Microsoft, 18.0%.
As a rule of thumb, investment professionals like to see a company's ROA come
in at no less than 5%. Of course, there are exceptions to this rule. An important
one would apply to banks, which strive to record an ROA of 1.5% or above.
2d) Profitability Indicator Ratios: Return On Equity
This ratio indicates how profitable a company is by comparing its net income to
its average shareholders' equity. The return on equity ratio (ROE) measures how
much the shareholders
earned for their investment in the company. The higher the ratio percentage, the
more efficient management is in utilizing its equity base and the better return is to
investors.
Formula:Return On Equity=Net Income/Average ShareHolders Equity
Widely used by investors, the ROE ratio is animportant measure of a company's
earnings performance. The ROE tells common shareholders how effectively their
money is being employed. Peer company, industry and overall market
comparisons are appropriate; however, it should be recognized that there are
variations in ROEs among some types of businesses. In
general, financial analysts consider return on equity ratios in the 15-20% range
as representing attractive levels of investment quality.
While highly regarded as a profitability indicator, the ROE metric does have a
recognized weakness. Investors need to be aware that a disproportionate amount
Formula:Operating Cycle(Days)=DIO+DSO-DPO
DIO=Days Inventory Outstanding
DSO=Days sales Outstanding
DPO=Days Payable Outstanding
DIO is computed by:
1.
Dividing the cost of sales (income statement) by 365 to get a cost of
sales per day figure;
2.
Calculating the average inventory figure by adding the year's
beginning (previous yearend amount) and ending inventory figure (both are
in the balance sheet) and dividing by
2 to obtain an average amount of inventory for any given year; and
3.
Dividing the average inventory figure by the cost of sales per day
figure.
DSO is computed by:
1.
Dividing net sales (incomestatement) by 365 to get net sales per day
figure;
2.
Calculating the average accounts receivable figure by adding the
year's beginning (previous yearend amount) and ending accounts
receivable amount (both figures are in
the balance sheet) and dividing by 2 to obtain an average amount of
accounts receivable for any given year; and Dividing the average accounts
receivable figure by the net sales per day figure.
DPO is computed by:
Dividing the cost of sales (income statement) by 365 to get a cost of sales
per day figure;
little cash from these profits. For example, if a company makes a ton of sales on
credit, they will look profitable but haven't actually received cash for the sales,
which can hurt their financial health since they have obligations to pay.
The ratios in this section use cash flow compared to other company metrics to
determine how much cash they are generating from their sales, the amount of
cash they are generating free and clear, and the amount of cash they have to
cover obligations. We will look at the
operating cash flow/sales ratio, free cash flow/operating cash flow ratio and cash
flow coverage ratios.
5a)Cash Flow Indicator Ratios: Operating Cash Flow/Sales Ratio
Thisratio, which is expressed as a percentage, compares a company's operating
cash flow to its net sales or revenues, which gives investors an idea of the
company's ability to turn sales into cash.
It would be worrisome to see a company's sales grow without a parallel growth in
operating cash flow. Positive and negative changes in a company's terms of sale
and/or the collection experience of its accounts receivable will show up in this
indicator.
Formula:OCF/Sales Ratio=Operating cash Flow/Net Sales(Revenue)
The statement of cash flows has three distinct sections, each of which relates to
an aspect of a company's cash flow activities - operations, investing and
financing. In this ratio, we use the
figure for operating cash flow, which is also variously described in financial
reporting as simply "cash flow", "cash flow provided by operations", "cash flow
from operating activities" and "net
cash provided (used) by operating activities".
In the operating section of the cash flow statement, the net income figure is
adjusted for non-cash charges and increases/decreases in the working capital
items in a company's current assets and liabilities. This reconciliation results in
an operating cash flow figure, the foremost source of a company's cash
generation (which is internally generated by its operating activities).
The greater the amount of operating cash flow, the better. There is no standard
guideline for the operating cash flow/sales ratio, but obviously, the ability to
generate consistent and/or improving percentage comparisons are positive
investment qualities.
5b) Cash Flow Indicator Ratios: Free Cash Flow/Operating Cash Flow Ratio
The free cash flow/operating cash flow ratio measures the relationship between
free cash flow and operating cash flow.
Free cash flow is most often defined as operating cash flow minus capital
expenditures, which, in analytical terms, are considered to be an essential outflow
of funds to maintain a company's
competitiveness and efficiency.
The cash flow remaining after this deduction is considered "free" cash flow, which
becomes available to a company to use for expansion, acquisitions, and/or
financial stability to weather difficult market conditions. The higher the percentage
of free cash flow embedded in a
company's operating cash flow, the greater the financial strength of the company.
Formula:FCF/OCF Ratio=Free Cash Flow(Operating Cash Flow-Capital
Expenditure)/Operating cash Flow
5c)Cash Flow Indicator Ratios:Cash Flow Coverage Ratio
This ratio measures the ability of the company's operating cash flow to meet its
obligations including its liabilities or ongoing concern costs.
The operating cash flow is simply the amount of cash generated by the company
from its main operations, which are used to keep the business funded.
The larger the operating cash flow coverage for these items, the greater the
company's ability to meet its obligations, along with giving the company more
cash flow to expand its business, withstand hard times, and not be burdened by
debt servicing and the restrictions typically
included in credit agreements
Formulas:Short Term Debt Coverage=Operating Cash Flow/Short-term Debt
Capital Expenditure Coverage=Operating cash Flow/Capital Expenditures
Divident Coverage=Operating Cash Flow/Cash Dividents
CAPEX+Cash Divident Coverage=Operating Cash flow/Capital Expenditure+cash
Dividents
The short-term debt coverage ratio compares the sum of a company's short-term
borrowings and the current portion of its long-term debt to operating cash flow.
income per share. In the case of the latter, companies with outstanding warrants,
stock options, and convertible preferred shares and bonds would report diluted
earnings per share in addition
to their basic earnings per share.
The concept behind this treatment is that if converted to common shares, all these
convertible securities would increase a company's shares outstanding. While it is
unlikely for any or all of these items to be exchanged for common stock in their
entirety at the same time,
conservative accounting conventions dictate that this potential dilution (an
increase in a company's shares outstanding) be reported. Therefore, earnings per
share come in two varieties - basic and diluted (also referred to as fully diluted).
An investor should carefully consider the diluted share amount if it differs
significantly from the basic share amount. A company's share price could suffer if
a large number of the option holders of its convertible securities decide to switch
to stock.
For example, let's say that XYZ Corp. currently has one million shares
outstanding, one million in convertible options outstanding (assumes each option
gives the right to buy one share), and the company's earnings per share are $3. If
all the options were exercised (converted), there would be two million shares
outstanding. In this extreme example, XYZ's earnings per share would drop from
$3 to $1.50 and its share place would plummet.
While it is not very common, when companies sell off and/or shut down a
component of their operations, their earnings per share (both basic and diluted)
will be reported with an additional qualification, which is presented as being
based on continuing and discontinued operations.
The absolute dollar amounts for earnings, sales, cash flow and book value are
worthwhile for investors to review on a year-to-year basis. However, in order for
this data to be used in calculating investment valuations, these dollar amounts
must be converted to a per-share
basis and compared to a stock's current price. It is this comparison that gives rise
to the common use of the expression "multiple" when referring to the relationship
of a company's stock price (per share) to its per-share metrics of earnings, sales,
cash flow and book value. These so-called valuation ratios provide investors with
an estimation, albeit a simplistic one, of whether a stock price is too high,
reasonable, or a bargain as an investment opportunity.
Lastly, it is very important to once again to remind investors that while some
financial ratios have general rules (or a broad application), in most instances it is
a prudent practice to look at a company's historical performance and use peer
company/industry comparisons to
put any given company's ratio in perspective. This is particularly true of
investment valuation ratios. This paragraph, therefore, should be considered as
an integral part of the discussion of each of the following ratios.
6b)Investment Valuation Ratios: Price/Book Value Ratio
A valuation ratio used by investors which compares a stock's per-share price
(market value) to its book value (shareholders' equity). The price-to-book value
ratio, expressed as a multiple (i.e. how many times a company's stock is trading
per share compared to the company's book value per share), is an indication of
how much shareholders are paying for the net assets of a company.
The book value of a company is the value of a company's assets expressed on the
balance sheet. It is the difference between the balance sheet assets and balance
sheet liabilities and is an estimation of the value if it were to be liquidated.
The price/book value ratio, often expressed simply as "price-to-book", provides
investors a way to compare the market value, or what they are paying for each
share, to a conservative measure of the value of the firm.
cost that its book value is of limited use. Outside the United States, some
countries' accounting standards allow for the revaluation of the property, plant
and equipment components of fixed assets
in accordance with prescribed adjustments for inflation. Depending on the age of
these assets and their physical location, the difference between current market
value and book value can be substantial, and most likely favor the former with a
much higher value than the latter.
Also, intellectual property, particularly as we progress at a fast pace into the socalled "information age", is difficult to assess in terms of value. Book value may
well grossly undervalue these kinds of assets, both tangible and intangible.
The P/B ratio therefore has its shortcomings but is still widely used as a valuation
metric. It is probably more relevant for use by investors looking at capitalintensive or finance-related businesses, such as banks.
In terms of general usage, it appears that the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is firmly
entrenched as the valuation of choice by the investment community. (Skip ahead
to the P/E chapter here.)
6c ) Investment Valuation Ratios: Price/Cash Flow Ratio
The price/cash flow ratio is used by investors to evaluate the investment
attractiveness, from a value standpoint, of a company's stock. This metric
compares the stock's market price to the amount of cash flow the company
generates on a per-share basis.
This ratio is similar to the price/earnings ratio, except that the price/cash flow ratio
(P/CF) is seen by some as a more reliable basis than earnings per share to
evaluate the acceptability, or lack thereof, of a stock's current pricing. The
argument for using cash flow over earnings is that the former is not easily
manipulated, while the same cannot be said for earnings, which, unlike cash flow,
are affected by depreciation and other non-cash factors.
Formula:Price/Cash Flow Ratio=Stock Price per share/Operating Cash Flow per
share
6d ) Investment Valuation Ratios: Price/Earnings Ratio
The price/earnings ratio (P/E) is the best known of the investment valuation
indicators. The P/E
ratio has its imperfections, but it is nevertheless the most widely reported and
used valuation by investment professionals and the investing public. The financial
reporting of both companies and investment research services use a
basic earnings per share (EPS) figure divided into the current stock price to
calculate the P/E multiple (i.e. how many times a stock is trading (its
price) per each dollar of EPS).
It's not surprising that estimated EPS figures are often very optimistic during bull
markets, while reflecting pessimism during bear markets. Also, as a matter of
historical record, it's no secret that the accuracy of stock analyst earnings
estimates should be looked at skeptically by
investors. Nevertheless, analyst estimates and opinions based on forward-looking
projections of a company's earnings do play a role in BSe nse stock-pricing
considerations.
Historically, the average P/E ratio for the broad market has been around 15,
although it can fluctuate significantly depending on economic and market
conditions. The ratio will also vary widely among different companies and
industries.
Formula:Price/earnings Ratio=Stock Price per share/Earnings Per share(EPS)
The basic formula for calculating the P/E ratio is fairly standard. There is never a
problem with the numerator - an investor can obtain a current closing stock price
from various sources, and
they'll all generate the same dollar figure, which, of course, is a per-share
number. However, there are a number of variations in the numbers used for the
EPS figure in the denominator. The most commonly used EPS dollar figures
include the following:
Basic earnings per share - based on the past 12 months as of the most
recent reported
quarterly net income. In investment research materials, this period is often
identified as trailing twelve months (TTM). As noted previously, diluted earnings
per share could also be used, but this is not a common practice. The term "trailing
P/E" is used to identify a P/E ratio calculated on this basis.
The Value Line Investment Survey's combination approach - This wellknown and
respected independent stock research firm has popularized a P/E ratio that uses
six months of actual trailing EPS and six months of forward, or estimated, EPS as
its earnings per share component in this ratio.
Cash Earnings Per Share - Some businesses will report cash earnings per
share,
which uses operating cash flow instead of net income to calculate EPS.
Components:
Market Capitalization
$16,712
($67.44 x 247.8 MM)
--
--
Debt
82
Minority Interest
--
$16,796
Enterprise Value
$16,563
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