Scribd
Upload
94 views33 pages

Debris Flow Modelling

This document summarizes debris flow modelling techniques used to assess landslide hazards. It describes: 1) Key stages in debris flow modelling including software selection, building a site-specific back analysis database from past landslide case studies, identifying source areas and flow paths, selecting rheological models, and running analytical models. 2) Methods for debris flow modelling including empirical angle of reach approaches and detailed analytical modelling using software like GEO-DMM and DAN-W. 3) The importance of developing a site-specific back analysis database from detailed investigation of past landslide cases to calibrate modelling parameters and conduct sensitivity analysis of potential scenarios.

Uploaded by

Tony Chan
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
94 views33 pages

Debris Flow Modelling

This document summarizes debris flow modelling techniques used to assess landslide hazards. It describes: 1) Key stages in debris flow modelling including software selection, building a site-specific back analysis database from past landslide case studies, identifying source areas and flow paths, selecting rheological models, and running analytical models. 2) Methods for debris flow modelling including empirical angle of reach approaches and detailed analytical modelling using software like GEO-DMM and DAN-W. 3) The importance of developing a site-specific back analysis database from detailed investigation of past landslide cases to calibrate modelling parameters and conduct sensitivity analysis of potential scenarios.

Uploaded by

Tony Chan
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 33

Debris Flow Modelling

Stuart Millis
Senior Engineering Geologist
Ove Arup & Partners Hong Kong Limited

Debris Flows
A landslide in which the landslide debris moves by
the dominant mechanism of slurry flow. (GEO, 2003)
Constitute one of the biggest natural terrain hazards
due to their high mobility and impact forces
Therefore need to be able to assess the likely runout path and distance in order to define the
vulnerability of facilities at the catchment toe.

Some Notable Examples of Debris Flows


Tsing Shan
Sham Tseng San Tsuen
Lei Pui Street
Fei Ngo Shan
7 June 2008 landslides on North Lantau

Tsing Shan September 1990

Source Volume 2,000m3 (initiated by a trigger failure


of a few 100s m3)
Total Volume Involved 19,000m3
Angle of Reach 21o
Estimated landslide velocities of 16.5 m/s
Massive Entrainment of Debris
Catchment had high Channelisation Ratio
Occurred during unexceptional rainstorm (136mm in
5 hours & return period <2 years)

Tsing Shan September 1990

Sham Tseng San Tsuen August 1999

1 Fatality
Multiple Source Areas
Main Source Area 600m3
Maximum Active Volume in drainage line 480m3
Travel Angle 24o
Catchment had an extremely high Channelisation
Ratio
Little to no entrainment of debris
Occurred during rainstorm with a return period of
49 years
Sham Tseng San Tsuen August 1999

Lei Pui Street September 2001

Source Volume 250m3


Maximum Active Volume 780m3
Travel Angle 23o
Peak landslide velocity of about 14 m/s
Entrainment exacerbated due to source debris
cascading over cliff
Started as open slope failure but became
channelised in lower portion
Catchment had moderate Channelisation Ratio
Rainfall return period of 14 years

Lei Pui Street September 2001

Fei Ngo Shan August 2005

Source Volume 3,350m3


Very limited entrainment of additional material with
Total Volume of about 4,025m3
Travel Angle 22o
Peak landslide velocity of about 19 m/s
Started as open slope failure but became
channelised in mid-to-lower portion
Catchment had moderate Channelisation Ratio
Rainfall return period of about 50 years
Fei Ngo Shan August 2005

Yu Tung Road, N. Lantau 7 June 2008

Source Volume 3,000m3


Additional debris entrainment within drainage
channel
Started as open slope failure just above the head of
a drainage line
Catchment had high Channelisation Ratio
Resulted in road closure for several months
Rainfall return period of about 1,000 years
Currently undergoing detailed study

Yu Tung Road, N. Lantau 7 June 2008

North Lantau 7 June 2008

North Lantau 7 June 2008

North Lantau 7 June 2008

Key Stages in Debris Flow Modelling


Software selection
Building a site-specific database (back analysis)
Review of other similar sites (if no site-specific back
analysis can be conducted)
Identification of Landslide Source Areas
Determination of Debris Flow Paths
Selection of Rheological Models
Debris Flow Modelling

Empirical Approach
Angle of Reach Approach
Crown

= fahrbschung
(Travel Angle)

Toe

Typically assessed based on area specific


case histories

Empirical Approach
Relatively crude approach
Useful for Initial Screening Stage but now largely
superseded by Analytical Software for detailed studies
20 Degree Angle of Reach
from Catchment Crest

Study Area

Analytical Software
GEO DMM
Spreadsheet format model developed by the GEO
Pseudo three-dimensional analysis
Available from GEO for work on Government Projects
Channelised Debris Flow at Lei Pui Street (GEO, 2004)

10

Analytical Software
DAN-W
Commercial software developed by Oldrich Hungr
Pseudo three-dimensional analysis
Available from http://www.clara-w.com/DANWRunoutAnalysis.html
Channelised Debris Flow at Lei Pui Street

Analytical Software
Flo-2D
Two-dimensional (plan view)
commercial software designed
primarily for Flood Risk
Assessment
Also found to model well highly
saturated debris flows / floods
Available from
http://www.flo-2d.com/index.htm

Fu Yung Shan Tsuen (GEO)

11

Site Specific Databases Back Analysis


Key information needed for Back Analysis:

Landslide source location


Landslide source volumes
Debris flows path vertical elevation, width and extent
Mass balance of landslide
Landslide rheology open hillslope or channelised debris flow?
If possible, landslide superelevation at various points along runout trail to allow velocity calculation

Information primarily gathered from Field Mapping


(recent failures) and historical records such as GEO
Landslide Investigation Reports

Input Data Source & Vertical Profile

300

Source Area

Toe of Run-out Trail

250

200
300

400

500

12

Input Data Debris Path & Mass Balance


Record details of the Channel Profile
Long-section along entire length
Series of channel cross-sections
Nature and thickness of any debris within channel base / levees

Estimate the Channelisation Ratio


Width (W) to Depth (D) Ratio of the Cross-section
Channelisation typically occurs at <5 (Hungr, 1984)
W

Input Data Debris Path & Mass Balance


Record debris entrainment and deposition
thickness along the run-out trail

13

Input Data Debris Path & Mass Balance


As well as cross sectional profiles of channel and
debris along the channel length

Input Data Debris Path & Mass Balance


Velocity check for back analysed failures based on
the Superelevation (Johnson & Rodine, 1984)
Allows comparison of actual vs computed velocity

Debris

14

Input Data Debris Path & Mass Balance

Selection of Rheological Model


Frictional Model

Suitable for modelling open


hillslope Debris Flows with
moderate saturation

Voellmy Model

Suitable for modelling:


- Channelised Debris Flows
- Highly saturated open hillslope
Debris Flows / Floods

15

Selection of Rheological Model


Most Channelised Debris Flows
initiate from open hillslope
sources
More than one model may be
required for a single landslide

Open Hillslope
(Frictional Model)

Channelised Debris Flow


(Voellmy Model)

Not all software packages allow


this to be modelled

Site Specific Databases


Dependant on the
number of past
failures within, or
in close proximity,
to the study site

Abundant landslide history


allowing determination of sitespecific input parameters

Some sites are


better suited to
this than others.

16

Debris Flow Modelling Building the Model


Run-out Path Long Section Run-out Path Width / Profile

Debris Flow Modelling Building the Model

Key Variable to Assess Debris Mobility

often similar to the Travel


Angle of the Landslide

17

Debris Flow Modelling Building the Model

Key Variables to Assess Debris Mobility

The higher this number is, the


more liquid the flow becomes

Debris Flow Modelling Running the Model

18

Maximum observed run-out of landslide

Maximum observed run-out of landslide

19

Maximum observed run-out of landslide

Maximum observed run-out of landslide

20

Maximum observed run-out of landslide

Maximum observed run-out of landslide

21

Maximum observed run-out of landslide

Maximum observed run-out of landslide

22

Model Checking / Calibration


Debris distribution
Volume Estimates from Field Mapping

Debris Thickness Estimates from Run-out Modelling

23

Model Checking / Calibration


Landslide velocity
Velocity Estimates from
Debris Mobility Modelling

Velocity Estimates
from Superelevation

Model Checking / Calibration


Landslide duration (not often available.)

24

Back Analysis
Analyse as many local
failures as possible to
build a site-specific
database of modelling
parameters

Back Analysis
These then form the basis for sensitivity analysis of
potential landslide run-out scenarios:
Upper Bound 34.5 degrees
Average 31.5 degrees
Lower Bound 28 degrees

25

Alternatives to Back Analysis


For sites with no or limited cases
for back analysis:
Refer to published guidelines such as
Figure 21 of GEO Report 104
Note: this may result in a somewhat
conservative assessment
Review past studies and published data
for other sites in the vicinity of the site in
order to develop the range of sensitivity
analysis based on sound engineering
judgement
i.e. Ayotte & Hungr, 1998
GEO Report 174
Landslide Investigation Reports etc.

Alternatives to Back Analysis


Empirical correlations of Travel Angle and Source
Volume (GEO Report 174)

26

Modelling Potential Landslide Hazards


Identification of probable source areas
Based upon the hazard model developed for the site

Modelling Potential Landslide Hazards


Determination of debris run-out path
Typically developed in GIS using a flow path analysis tool
Assessment will only be as good as the survey data used for the
Digital Terrain Model
Flow path Assessment for Luk Keng NTHS

27

Modelling Potential Landslide Hazards


Determination of probable debris flow width
Based upon field mapping and judgement
Include allowance for all entrainable material

Modelling Potential Landslide Hazards


Estimation of Channel Yield
Rate (Y) to determine
entrainable volume

1
2
3

Quantity of debris in m3 per m of


path length removable by a debris
flow (Hungr, 1984)
Channel divided into segments
(reaches) of approximately similar
character in order to estimate

Wi

Incremental volume
for reach i:
8

Vi = Yi.di.Wi
Erosion

di

28

Modelling Potential Landslide Hazards


Build analytical model

Modelling Potential Landslide Hazards


Conduct Sensitivity Analysis
Upper Bound Case

Debris remains confined within hillside area and doesnt affect


any down slope facilities

29

Modelling Potential Landslide Hazards


Conduct Sensitivity Analysis
Worst Case

Nearly all of the debris reaches the toe of the hillside and could
thus affect any facilities / people using that area

Modelling Potential Landslide Hazards

30

Modelling Potential Landslide Hazards


Check findings against correlations of Travel Angle
and Source Volume (GEO Report 174)

24 o

Back Analysed Data previously presented


500 m3 Design Event

Using the Modelling Data


Insert Observation Point at probable location of
any Hazard Mitigation Works
Use this data to determine impact forces and debris
thickness / vertical run-up distance (GEO Report 104 refers)
Observation Point

31

Future Advances
Use of LiDAR data for better definition of slope /
channel morphology

Future Advances
Development and application of three-dimensional
modelling software

GEO 3D-DMM

DAN-3D

32

Some Useful References


GEO Report 104 (2000) Review of Natural Terrain Landslide
Debris Resisting Barrier Design + other GEO Reports:
http://www.cedd.gov.hk/eng/publications/geo_reports/index.htm

Hungr (1995) A Model for the Run-out Analysis of Rapid Flow


Slides, Debris Flows and Avalanches
Hungr & Evans (1997) A Dynamic Model for Landslides with
Changing Mass
Ko & Kwan (2006) Application of Debris Mobility Modeling in
Landslide Risk Assessment in Hong Kong
Kwan & Ko (2008) Mobility Assessment of Debris Floods
Recent Advancement
Ayotte & Hungr (1998) Run-out Analysis of Debris Flows and
Debris Avalanches in Hong Kong

Thank You

33

You might also like

pFad - Phonifier reborn

Pfad - The Proxy pFad of © 2024 Garber Painting. All rights reserved.

Note: This service is not intended for secure transactions such as banking, social media, email, or purchasing. Use at your own risk. We assume no liability whatsoever for broken pages.


Alternative Proxies:

Alternative Proxy

pFad Proxy

pFad v3 Proxy

pFad v4 Proxy