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HW 3

This document contains solutions to homework exercises from a probability concepts course. It includes solutions to problems on independent events, dice rolls, blood types, seating arrangements, binomial distributions, and betting games. The solutions use concepts like probability, combinations, permutations, and the binomial theorem to calculate probabilities of various outcomes.

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Rushil Surapaneni
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64 views3 pages

HW 3

This document contains solutions to homework exercises from a probability concepts course. It includes solutions to problems on independent events, dice rolls, blood types, seating arrangements, binomial distributions, and betting games. The solutions use concepts like probability, combinations, permutations, and the binomial theorem to calculate probabilities of various outcomes.

Uploaded by

Rushil Surapaneni
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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STAT 134 Concepts of Probability

Homework 3 Solutions
Exercise 1.6.4
1 9 1
a) Since the events are independent, we have P (jackpot) = 20
= 2093 .
20 20
1 11 1
19 9 1
353
1 9 19
b) P (two bells but not jackpot) = 20 20 20 + 20 20 20 + 20 20 20 = 203 .
c) For a 3-1-3 machine:
3 1 3
= 2093 ;
P (jackpot) = 20
20 20
3 1 17
3 19 3
1 3
P (two bells but not jackpot) = 20
+ 20
+ 17
= 273
.
20 20
20 20
20 20 20
203
Thus the two machines have the same chance of winning a jackpot. But the 1-9-1 machine
encourages one to play, since it seems to be close to a jackpot more frequently.
Exercise 1.6.6
a)
p1 = 0;
p2 = 6 16 61 = 16 ;
p3 = 6 2
p4 = 6 3
p5 = 6 4
p6 = 6 5
p7 = 6 6

151
;
666
1541
;
6666
15431
;
66666
154321
;
666666
1543211
;
6666666

Since a die has only six numbers on it, there is no need to roll more than seven times.
Therefore: p8 = p9 = = 0.
b) p1 + p2 + + p10 = 1 as one must stop before the eighth roll and the events determining
p1 , p2 , ... are mutually exclusive.
c) Just compute p2 + + p7 and see if it is equal to one.
Review 1.10
a)
P (same type) = P (both A) + P (both B) + P (both AB) + P (both O).
P (both A) = P (A)2 = 0.422 ;
P (both B) = P (B)2 = 0.12 ;
P (both AB) = P (AB)2 = 0.042 ;
P (both O) = P (O)2 = 0.442 .
Thus P (same type) = 0.422 + 0.12 + 0.042 + 0.442 = 0.3816. And so P (different types) =
1 0.3816 = 0.6814.
b)

P (1) =
=
=
P (2) =
=

P (all A or all B or all AB or all O)


P (A)4 + P (B)4 + P (AB)4 + P (O)4
0.424 + 0.14 + 0.044 + 0.444 = 0.0687.
P (pattern XXYY) + P (pattern XXXY)
(0.422 0.12 + 0.422 0.042 + 0.422 0.442 + 0.12 0.042 + 0.12 0.442 + 0.042 0.442 ) 6
+(0.423 (1 0.42) + 0.13 (1 0.1) + 0.043 (1 0.04) + 0.443 (1 0.44)) 4
= 0.5973.
P (4) = 4!(0.42)(0.1)(.04)(0.44) = 0.01774.
P (3) = 1 P (1) P (2) P (4) = 1 0.5973 0.0687 0.01774 = 0.3163.

Review 1.16
a) Student 1 can choose any of the remaining n 1, student 2 can choose any of the eligible
n 2, student 3 can choose any of the eligible n 2 except student 1, student 4 can choose
any of the eligible n 2 except student 1 and 2, and so on. Thus
pr =

nr
n1 n2 n3 n4


.
n1 n2 n2 n2
n2

b) Taking log of pr and making use of the approximation log(1 + z) z for small z:
1
2
log(pr ) = log(1 n2
) + log(1 n2
) + + log(1
(r2)
2
1
n2 + n2 + + n2
1
= n2
(r2)(r1)
.
2

Thus if n = 300 and r = 30,


log(p30 )

28 29
= 1.3624.
298 2

So p30 e1.3624 = 0.256.


Exercise 2.1.4

P (3 sixes in the 8 rolls) = 83 ( 16 )3 ( 56 )5 .
P (3 sixes in the 8 rolls and 2 sixes in the first 5 rolls)
= P (2
 sixes in the
 first 5 rolls and 1 six in the last 3 rolls)
= 52( 61)2 ( 56 )3 31 61 ( 56 )2
= 52 31 ( 16 )3 ( 56 )5
P (2 sixes in the first 5 rolls|3 sixes in the 8 rolls)
and 2 sixes in the first 5 rolls)
= P (3 sixes in theP 8(3rolls
sixes in the 8 rolls)
(5)(3)
= 281
(3)
Exercise 2.1.8
if np + p < 1 then the most likely number of success is zero.

r2
)
n2

if np + p = 1 then the most likely numbers of success is zero and one.


if np + p > 1 then the most likely number of success is bigger than or equal to one.
Hence the most likely number is zero if and only if np + p 1 and so the largest such p is
1
.
n+1
Exercise 2.1.10

n
P (k 1 heads) = k1
(1/2)n

P (k heads) = nk (1/2)n

P (k 1 or k heads) = P (k heads) + P (k 1 heads) = ( nk +
(n)
k
a) P (k 1 heads|k 1 or k heads) = n +k1 n = n+1
.
(k ) (k1)
(n)
.
b) P (k heads|k 1 or k heads) = n +k n = nk+1
n+1
(k ) (k1)

n
k1

)(1/2)n .

Exercise 2.1.12
a)
P (exactly 8 bets)
= P (wins
at the 8th bets, and has won 4 out of the previous sever bets)

= 74 (18/38)4 (20/38)3 (18/38) = 0.1217.
b)
5
P (exactly 5 bets) = (18/38)
= 0.0238;

5
P (exactly 6 bets) = 4(18/38)4 (20/38)1 (18/38) = 0.0628;
P (exactly 7 bets) = 64 (18/38)4 (20/38)2 (18/38) = 0.099;
So:
P (at least 9 bets)
= 1 P (at most 8 bets)
P
.
= 1 8i=5 P (exactly i bets)
= 1 0.0238 0.0628 0.099 0.1217 = 0.6927.

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