Election Prediction Sheet

Due: Wednesday, November 2, 2016 / Thursday, November 3, 2016

State Presidential Election Prediction:

Copy and paste the table if you have multiple states
Candidate (Party) Hillary Clinton (Dem) Donald Trump (Rep) Gary Johnson (Lib)
Popular Vote Count 2,106,945 1,617,833 37,624
Pop. Vote % 56% 43% 1%

Congressional Election Predictions

Copy and paste as many tables as you need
State, District New Jersey, 1
Candidate (Party) Donald Norcross (D) Bob Patterson (R) Bill Sihr (L)
Popular Vote % 56% 43% 1%
Popular Vote Count 99,308 76,254 1,773

State, District New Jersey, 2

Candidate (Party) David Cole (D) Frank LoBiondo (R) John Ordile (L)
Popular Vote % 35% 65% --
Popular Vote Count 63,095 117,177

State, District New Jersey, 3

Candidate (Party) Jim Keady (D) Tom MacArthur (R) Lawrence Berlinski Jr. (Constitution Party)
Popular Vote % 43% 55% 2%
Popular Vote Count 80,024 102,356 3,722

State, District New Jersey, 4

Candidate (Party) Lorna Phillipson (D) Chris Smith (R) Jeremy Marcus (L)
Popular Vote % 70% 30% --
Popular Vote Count 129,871 222,636

State, District New Jersey, 5

Candidate (Party) Josh Gottheimer (D) Scott Garrett (R) Claudio Belusic (L)
Popular Vote % 43% 55% 1%
Popular Vote Count 74,542 95,344 1,733
 State, District New Jersey, 6
Candidate (Party) Frank Pallone (D) Brent Sonnek-Schmelz (R) Judy Shamy (L)
Popular Vote % 60% 39% 1%
Popular Vote Count 135,667 88,184 2,261
 Crystal Ball Final Predictions

In order to predict the presidential and congressional election outcomes in New Jersey, I

had to look at various sources to accumulate facts and quotes. The first step was recording the

statistical data on the demographics and previous election outcomes for the state and the districts.

I looked at the demographic groups associated with each candidate and political party

(Democratic and Republican). I also observed media sources and key issues in the state, and

broke it down into what each district considers important and relevant. Using voter turnout in

previous elections, the demographics, and election outcomes of the past, I was able to make

predictions on the total popular vote and percentages for each political party for each of the

congressional districts. After combining all the districts, I was able to predict the overall state

predictions for the presidential election.

Demographic Factors

Two demographic factors that will influence the presidential election in New Jersey are

race and education. In the state of New Jersey, approximately 30% of the population are made up

of African Americans and Hispanics (US Census). Although it seems like a low percentage, the

population of minorities in New Jersey is constantly increasing and is much greater compared to

other states (Maciag). This population of minorities has resulted in the favorability of

Democratic candidates for the past 4 presidential elections (Federal Elections 2000).

It is evident that district 4 and 5 are Republican districts, with both republican majority in

the congressional and presidential elections (Ballotpedia). Clinton and Trump demographic

trends show that white citizens are more likely to vote Republican (Alcantara), and district 4 and
5 both have an approximately 80% white population (US Census). This results in these districts

favoring Trump, while the other 4 districts will most likely vote for Clinton based on their high

minority population. District 2 and 3 both have a republican majority in the congressional

election, and democratic majority in the presidential election. This may have occurred due to

gerrymandering, where Republicans manipulated the boundaries of the districts to gain power in

the congressional elections.

In District 2 and 3, it is very possible that this election will follow the same trend as

previous presidential and congressional elections. This means that Frank Lobiondo (2) and Tom

MacArthur (3) are likely to win. In both these districts, approximately 40% of people 25 years

and over have a high school diploma or less. The Washington Post demographic trends show that

these people are likely to be independents, or are slightly toward Clinton (Alcantara). These

independents are also likely to vote for Clinton because 30% of these districts are made up of

African Americans and Hispanics, two minority groups.

Key Issues

Two key issues that will influence presidential voting in the districts of New Jersey are

immigration and racial relations. The candidate stance and Party Platform will highly influence

the outcomes of the presidential and congressional races. These issues are currently extremely

divided between the two political parties, and are influencing the voters opinion on both

candidates.

District 4 and 5 both are extremely Republican and have a large white population (US

Census), which makes them less concerned with the issue of immigration. New Jersey media

follows the democratic ideology of immigration, which is apparent in the news articles and the
demographic groups. According to I've witnessed horrors of Syrian war - I'm proud to welcome

refugees to NJ, I also will continue my efforts to report on the crisis abroad, and to prompt our

leaders to promote safe and effective public policies that will welcome Syrians refugees (The

Star-Ledger). This shows that New Jersey citizens support the promotion of immigration, with

Democratic favorability in the presidential election. District 1 and 6 have a strong Democratic

trend in the congressional election and it is likely that their view on immigration is a large factor

that will sway their vote toward Donald Norcross (1) and Frank Pallone (6).

The two underclasses, the black underclass and the white underclass have completely

different approaches to politics, causing a huge rift between the liberal and conservative

ideologies on racial relations (Vance). Districts with a higher population of minorities, especially

1 and 6, are more likely to be concerned with racial relations. Democrats are strongly

committed to enacting comprehensive immigration reform that supports our economic goals and

reflects our values as both a nation of laws and a nation of immigrants (Gurfinkel). This shows

that these districts will support Clinton, and their democratic congressional candidate. Although

many districts will support the republican congressional candidate due to their high population of

white Americans, previous presidential elections have shown their support for Democratic

candidates for presidency (Ballotpedia).

Voter Turnout

Overall, voter turnout in New Jersey has decreased in presidential and congressional

elections, because many people are fed up with the government (Johnson). However, the

decrease in voters ages 18-24 is much steeper than the decrease in voters ages 65+ (US Census).

This will result in a Republican majority in most of the districts, because people of older age are
more likely to vote with a conservative ideology (Alcantara). However, although there will be

more Republican favorability in the congressional election, the gender will also impact the

elections. Male and female voter turnout have decreased at an almost constant rate through the

past few elections (Ballotpedia), however, all six districts have a slightly larger percentage of

females than males (US Census). Females are more likely to be liberal, and also are more likely

to vote for Clinton because of her democratic ideology (Alcantara).

Congressional Elections

The race demographics in District 1 and 4 will affect the congressional and presidential

elections. In District 1, about 67% of the population is white, while almost 30% of the population

is made up of African Americans and Hispanics. However in District 4, 85% of the population is

white while about 15% of the population are made up of African Americans and Hispanics (US

Census). The large population of white people versus the large population of minorities show the

contrasting majorities in the congressional elections. In District 1, the Democratic candidate has

won by a 60:30 majority for the past 3 elections, while in District 4, the Republican candidate

has won by a 60:30 majority (Ballotpedia). The contrast between republican and democratic

winners in the congressional elections has resulted in the presidential elections being won by a

small margin in many of the districts, such as District 4. Minorities tend to favor Democrats

because their platform believes in ending the unjust practice of racial profiling in America (On

The Issues). The majority of white citizens in some states and minorities in other states has

resulted in strong Republican majority and strong Democratic majority in congressional

elections, but has also resulted in presidential elections being of very close margin.
 The given evidence on New Jerseys statistical data, past election results, and media

sources show that Hillary Clinton is likely to win the election, but not by an extremely large

margin. It is also probable that District 1,4, and 6 will have Democratic congressional candidates,

while District 2,3 and 5 will have Republican congressional candidates. Although the districts

will be split in congressional candidates, the demographic groups in New Jersey as well as

previous presidential elections show that the Democratic candidate, Clinton, is much more likely

to win. The New Jersey Newspaper, The Star Ledger, shows the negativity towards Trump and

the key issues which support the Democratic platform. This compilation of information verifies

the prediction that Hillary Clinton will win the presidential election in New Jersey.

Works Cited
Alcantara, Chris. Clinton and Trumps Demographic Tug of War. The Washington Post, 16

Oct. 2016. www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/2016-election/the-demographic-

groups-fueling-the-election/ Accessed 1 Nov. 2016

Federal Elections 2000. www.fec.gov/pubrec/fe2012/2012pres.pdf. Accessed 1 Nov. 2016

Gurfinkel, Michael. Immigration Updates. Law Offices of Michael K. Gurfinkel,

www.gurfinkel.com/imm_updates152.htm Accessed 1 Nov. 2016

Ive Witnessed Horrors of Syrian War - Im Proud to Welcome Refugees to N.J. The Star-

Ledger, 10 Oct. 2016.

http://www.nj.com/opinion/index.ssf/2016/10/ive_witnessed_horrors_of_syrian_war_-

_im_proud_to.html Accessed 1 Nov. 2016

Johnson, Brent. Why N.J. Has Seen Historic Lows in Voter Turnout Recently. The Star-

Ledger, 30 Dec. 2014.

www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2014/12/why_njs_voter_turnout_has_reached_historic_lo

ws.html Accessed 1 Nov. 2016

Maciag, Mike. A State-by-State Look at Growing Minority Populations. Governing: The

States and Localities, 25 June 2015. www.governing.com/topics/urban/gov-majority-

minority-populations-in-states.html Accessed 1 Nov. 2016

On The Issues. Democratic Party on Civil Rights. On The Issues, 1 Jan. 2016.

www.ontheissues.org/Celeb/Democratic_Party_Civil_Rights.htm Accessed 1 Nov. 2016

United States Census Bureau. American Fact Finder,

www.factfinder.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/community_facts.xhtml Accessed 1 Nov.

2016
United States Congressional Delegations from New Jersey. Ballotpedia,

www.ballotpedia.org/United_States_House_of_Representatives Accessed 1 Nov. 2016

Vance, J.D. Why Race Relations Got Worse. National Review, 29 Aug. 2016.
www.nationalreview.com/article/439431/race-relations-getting-worse-america-why Accessed 1
Nov. 2016