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Forecast Ets Example

This document contains historical monthly passenger data for an airport from January 2009 to September 2013. It uses the FORECAST.ETS functions to forecast passenger traffic from the historical data through September 2015, generating a forecast value along with upper and lower confidence bounds. There is an accompanying line chart that displays the forecast.

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kksun
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179 views18 pages

Forecast Ets Example

This document contains historical monthly passenger data for an airport from January 2009 to September 2013. It uses the FORECAST.ETS functions to forecast passenger traffic from the historical data through September 2015, generating a forecast value along with upper and lower confidence bounds. There is an accompanying line chart that displays the forecast.

Uploaded by

kksun
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 18

Forecast based on a historical ti

Date Airport Passengers Forecast (Airport Passengers)


Jan-09 2,644,539
Feb-09 2,359,800
Mar-09 2,925,918
Apr-09 3,024,973
May-09 3,177,100
Jun-09 3,419,595
Jul-09 3,649,702
Aug-09 3,650,668
Sep-09 3,191,526
Oct-09 3,249,428
Nov-09 2,971,484
Dec-09 3,074,209
Jan-10 2,785,466
Feb-10 2,515,361
Mar-10 3,105,958
Apr-10 3,139,059
May-10 3,380,355
Jun-10 3,612,886
Jul-10 3,765,824
Aug-10 3,771,842
Sep-10 3,356,365
Oct-10 3,490,100
Nov-10 3,163,659
Dec-10 3,167,124
Jan-11 2,883,810
Feb-11 2,610,667
Mar-11 3,129,205
Apr-11 3,200,527
May-11 3,547,804
Jun-11 3,766,323
Jul-11 3,935,589
Aug-11 3,917,884
Sep-11 3,564,970
Oct-11 3,602,455
Nov-11 3,326,859
Dec-11 3,441,693
Jan-12 3,211,600
Feb-12 2,998,119
Mar-12 3,472,440
Apr-12 3,563,007
May-12 3,820,570
Jun-12 4,107,195
Jul-12 4,284,443
Aug-12 4,356,216
Sep-12 3,819,379
Oct-12 3,844,987
Nov-12 3,478,890
Dec-12 3,443,039
Jan-13 3,204,637
Feb-13 2,966,477
Mar-13 3,593,364
Apr-13 3,604,104
May-13 3,933,016
Jun-13 4,146,797
Jul-13 4,176,486
Aug-13 4,347,059
Sep-13 3,781,168 Err:509
Oct-13 #NAME?
Nov-13 #NAME?
Dec-13 #NAME?
Jan-14 #NAME?
Feb-14 #NAME?
Mar-14 #NAME?
Apr-14 #NAME?
May-14 #NAME?
Jun-14 #NAME?
Jul-14 #NAME?
Aug-14 #NAME?
Sep-14 #NAME?
Oct-14 #NAME?
Nov-14 #NAME?
Dec-14 #NAME?
Jan-15 #NAME?
Feb-15 #NAME?
Mar-15 #NAME?
Apr-15 #NAME?
May-15 #NAME?
Jun-15 #NAME?
Jul-15 #NAME?
Aug-15 #NAME?
Sep-15 #NAME?
a historical time series
Lower Confidence Bound (Airport Passengers)
Err:509
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
eries
Upper Confidence Bound (Airport Passengers)

1 This example contains sa


passenger data for an air
2009 - September 2013.

If you scroll down, beginn


2 see how we used FORECA
calculate the forecast pas
through September 2015
Or click the button >

There is an accompanyin
3 displaying forecast traffic

Review the FORECASTING


4 on support.office.com by
Err:509
Forecast (Airport Passengers)
#NAME?
#NAME?
C
Column C uses the FORECAST.ETS
#NAME? function. See cell C61.
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
For the same data and date ranges, FOREC
#NAME? data.
#NAME?
The FORECAST.ETS.STAT function finds a
#NAME?
date ranges. In this example, the 3rd argu
#NAME? ETS algorithm. The 4th parameter can be 1
#NAME? positive integer to specify the length of the
searonality calculation (same as if you set i
#NAME?
#NAME? Seasonality & STAT
#NAME? Seasonality:
#NAME? STAT:
#NAME?
#NAME? Forecast chart
#NAME? >
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
This example contains sample monthly
passenger data for an airport from January
2009 - September 2013.

If you scroll down, beginning in row 61 you'll


see how we used FORECAST.ETS functions to
calculate the forecast passenger traffic
through September 2015.
Or click the button >

There is an accompanying line chart


displaying forecast traffic

Review the FORECASTING function reference


on support.office.com by clicking this box.
st (Airport Passengers) Lower Confidence Bound (Airport Upper Confidence Bou
D Passengers) E Passengers)
C uses the FORECAST.ETS
n. See cell C61. Column D uses the Column D uses the
FORECAST.ETS.CONFINTfunction. See cell FORECAST.ETS.CONFINTf
D61. cell E61.

e data and date ranges, FORECAST.ETS.SEASONALITY finds the seasonality detected in the

AST.ETS.STAT function finds a specific stat from the ETS algorithm for a given set of data and
In this example, the 3rd argument (1) tells the function to return the Alpha parameter of the
m. The 4th parameter can be 1 to calculate the seasonality, 0 to use no seasonality, or a
ger to specify the length of the seasonal pattern. In this example, it refers to J48, which is the
alculation (same as if you set it to 1).

y & STAT
12 =FORECAST.ETS.SEASONALITY($B$4:$B$60,$A$4:$A$60,1,1)
0.251 =FORECAST.ETS.STAT($B$4:$B$60,$A$4:$A$60,1,J48,1,1)
Upper Confidence Bound (Airport
Passengers)

Column D uses the


FORECAST.ETS.CONFINTfunction. See
cell E61.

ed in the

data and
er of the
ra
h is the

A$4:$A$60,1,1)
0,1,J48,1,1)
Forecast based on a historical ti
Airport Pa

Airport Passengers Forecast (Airport Passengers) Lower


storical time series
Airport Passenger Forecasting

port Passengers) Lower Confidence Bound (Airport Passengers) Upper Confidence Bound (Airport Passengers)
< Home

Airport Passengers)

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