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Theory of Change Slides

The document provides an introduction and overview of program logic and theory of change. It outlines the objectives of the training which are to understand the concepts of program logic and theory of change, the basic steps to build a program logic, and how it can be used for program planning, monitoring, and evaluation. It then discusses what program logic is, how it helps articulate the narrative and choice of intervention, and maps out the cause-and-effect relationships between activities, outputs, outcomes and goals. Finally, it addresses how logic models are typically presented and that there is no single right way to document a program logic.

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
97 views34 pages

Theory of Change Slides

The document provides an introduction and overview of program logic and theory of change. It outlines the objectives of the training which are to understand the concepts of program logic and theory of change, the basic steps to build a program logic, and how it can be used for program planning, monitoring, and evaluation. It then discusses what program logic is, how it helps articulate the narrative and choice of intervention, and maps out the cause-and-effect relationships between activities, outputs, outcomes and goals. Finally, it addresses how logic models are typically presented and that there is no single right way to document a program logic.

Uploaded by

Abbey Road
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 34

26/06/2014

Introduction to Program logic and theory of


change
Dr Jess Dart
Bethany Davies

Objectives of the training


 Understand:
 the concept of program logic and theory of change
 the basic steps used to build a program logic

 how program logic can be used in program planning,


building a monitoring framework and for evaluation
planning
 By the end of the course, participants should have
an awareness and/or operational competency in
program logic, its development and use

1
26/06/2014

Overview of program logic

What is program logic?


A powerful thinking tool that helps us :
 consider how outcomes can be achieved

 articulate a clear narrative for the choice of

intervention
 (later) monitor, evaluate and report on progress

2
26/06/2014

What is program logic continued


 Rationale behind a program – a program’s theory
of action
 Program logic maps a series of expected
consequences, not just a sequence of events
 Cause-and-effect relationships between program
activities, outputs, intermediate outcomes, and
ultimate outcomes
 Often requires backwards mapping

Project or program?
 Can be applied at different levels of an
organisations:

 Can be used to think in a systems manner about how


program outcomes might be achieved
 Can be used to map out a single project, or a program
or strategy

3
26/06/2014

How are logic models presented?


 Often as a diagram, accompanied by a supporting
narrative
 Many ways to document a logic model
 Some work from side to side, some go from top to
bottom, and other
 There is no ‘right’ way

4
26/06/2014

Goal: Improved
learning
outcomes.
O1: All girls, boys,
(including those with O2: More 03: Children stay at
disabilities) are able children enrol primary school for
to access early years at primary longer (without
schooling school repeating)

Children School There are


Communities with special The cost of facilities & sufficient
value needs are schooling equipment schools/
education & able to does not are classrooms
demand access & restrict adequate in the right
quality engage in attendance and places
education secure
Engagement Locally relevant &
with the Fee subsidies efficient delivery of
community facilities & equipment

Shared Poverty alleviation Better health and well-being for all Socio-economic development
Development
Goals Reduction in gaps in health
The burden of non-
outcomes between Maternal new born and child Morbidity and mortality resulting from
communicable diseases
rich/poor, men/women, morbidity rates reduced communicable diseases reduced
reduced
urban/rural

Reduction in behaviour Mothers and babies are Safe Less Safe Communicable Spread of
Health Non-communicable
that increases risks of appropriately fed and delivery unwanted abortion disease infectious
Outcomes non-communicable
illness is identified
immunised, grow and and safe pregnanc availabl identified and diseases
and treated
diseases stay healthy pregnancy y e treated curtailed

Intermediate
Development Equitable access to curative, People access
preventative and rehabilitation curative, preventative Quality curative, preventative and
outcomes
services and rehabilitation rehabilitation services available
services
Servic
e
Cross Essential
provide
infection public health
All people People Citizen Physical rs
People Client service for all People Enough control functions:
able to have Health Locally participation infrastructure follow
practice so that people feel Access value and service Complaint by environmenta
physically information seeking available in and supplies ethical
hygiene accepted/welcomed not have providers service professio l health:, food
and and are behaviour services “demanding” available for and
and health and safe regardless limited confidence deployed procedure nalism safety,
financially aware of of and and improving essential best
promotion of age, sex, culture by cost in the across s and disaster
access services on individuals outreach services and health practic
exercise and ability service regions quality management
services offer accountability services e
control and
(profes
systems preparedness
sionali
sm)

Strengthened capacity if MoH systems, policy


Strengthened capacity of sub-national government to meet Strengthened capacity of workforce to
coordination for equitable access to essential health
constituent needs and provide essential health services provide essential health services
services
Health promotion in community
In-service capacity building of health service providers Funding gaps in
Filling gaps in
Empowering of •Supportive supervision from central to sub-national level AOPs and other
Health and hygiene service provision
communities groups to •High quality graduates equipped for best practice ethical service needs
promotion and
own positive health •Investment in training of skilled workforce, especially midwives
awareness raising Private sector provides
practice •Technical capacity building health facility
•Implementation of code of ethics for midwives or MD high end tertiary care
Implementing health promotion strategies •Equitable distribution of health workforce
•Strong collaboration with IPS and service provider
Development Activities (all actors) •Salary reform
•Increase human resources for health to allocate at each health facility (secondary
midwives)
Local authorities meet constituent
needs
Donors •Local authorities work together with key Central Government
stakeholders and structures to meet local •Greater coordination in health planning Private sector is self regulated with
• Donors collaborate and needs • IDPoor for assessing eligibility improved service quality and partnerships
harmonise work to contribute to •Operational community participation • Social health insurance CBHI
RGoC priorities, this requires •Health centre management committee link • HEF standardised - coverage increased and coordination with donors improved
compromise and conceding to council • Policies, protocols for role of all stakeholders in improving quality of health services Private sector
priorities •Functional assignment of different sub- • Drug law and anti-trafficking laws that hinder health services are proposed to be •Need more public private partnerships
• Longer term predictability national governments clarifies NGOs
amended •MoH policy on private sector
• Donors seek mutual •Incentive to council to reach target •Advocacy with and best
• Effective implementation informed by HIS, monitored and reviewed •Regulate for all private sector
accountability for wider concept •UNICEF trial – getting communes to practice for donors
•National budget reflect MoHs prioritisation and planning (MEF) •Transparency – provide more
of capacity development spend of recurrent health services •Innovation, pilots,
• Improve HIS to provide evidence based policy making and analyse data for planning information on its activity
•Provincial SNL have access to and use pioneering - new and
•Government commitment to MCH •Private insurance providers develop
NHIS in planning sensitive practices
• Government policies and money committed more affordable products
•Communes disseminate information • Research and monitoring
• Strengthened monitoring systems focusing on practices and outcomes with feedback •Private insurance providers support for
•Communes Councils pay VHSG for quality improvement public sector service

5
26/06/2014

social protection component


Millennium Development Goals

Resilient men and women of all ages able to withstand economic, political and environmental shocks and individual life-cycle crises

Poverty reduction The poorest 40%, marginalised and All Indonesian people are protected
outcomes All Indonesian people are protected
from chronic poverty through special needs people are from falling into poverty as a result of
universal insurance coverage permanently lifted from chronic economic, political and environmental
poverty shocks

GOI All people 90 – 100% of


effectively accessing effective, targeted
Service level All people have
supporting sustainable beneficiaries
outcomes equitable access to
Premium insurance schemes receive routine temporary assistance in
Beneficiary (health, workplace social times of shocks
Participants accident, aged, assistance
death)
The poorest elderly,
Orphans, Disabled people Children from
progressively identified and poor hhs
Increase in progressively More efficient
Greater supported with cash delivery of
number of voluntary identified and
transfers short-term
workplaces participation supported
providing to attend disaster relief
in
Better workplace purchasing school to SMA
targeting of insurance insurance People moving level
beneficiaries in and out of
poverty
Intermediate identified for
Effective Effective
outcomes inclusion/ Disaster
insurance insurance Demand More efficient
expulsion from relief
products for products Expanded for preparedness
services allocated
all type of for scope of increasingl of response
Effective illness with accident, according to Early warning
Inefficient participation in Inefficient y effective agencies
sanctions equitable aged, Beneficiary nat. disaster of disaster
administration all insurance administration assistance
encouraging hospital disability, targeted indicators occurrence
eliminated (formal/ eliminated programs
compliance class death effectively communicated
informal)
(inc. self effectively
sector Strong
Strong targeting) institution with
Strong institution with People adequate
aware of Effective
institutions Private adequate Effective, regular trained staff,
System for Consolidated Workplaces temporary Criteria to
Outputs with adequate sector, trained staff, conditional cash transfer their rights equipment, Early
allocating and and assistance determine
trained staff, NGOs equipment, and care service to facilities, warning
and integrated communities programs indicators of
equipment, collaborating facilities, programs (scholarships, assistance systems, system
providing effective well (cash/ disaster
facilities, with GOI to systems, orphans, elderly, and GOI operational in place
Premium insurance informed on materials) in threshold
systems, provide operational disabled) underpinned by responsibilit manuals and
Participant programs in insurance place
operational insurance manuals and policy studies y to budget
Cards place benefits
manuals and schemes budget provide it
budget Establish and Develop a
capacitate 2 National and
Establish and Transform BPJS’s work Develop mass Local system
Establish Transform new Empower existing
capacitate new Sustain Workforce to Enable community for
and 9 social implementing natural disaster
implementing and insurance development and determining
capacitate assistance bodies bodies to address
bodies (Health improve programs of workplace and
single programs (Economic crisis, social disasters
implementation Health to commercial awareness
BPJS, Manpower institute into 4 natural and communica-
BPJS) insurance consolidate Insurance campaign, ting disasters
schemes responsible social Disasters)
programs delivery rights to social for Social Ongoing Social Assistance
Social Security assistance Assistance Temporary Disaster Relief

Policy and program improvements Prerequisite institutional processes and arrangements


New policy is created Govt. coordinates Government improves Develop and Grievance processes
An effective Monitoring and
for improved social better to develop and delivery of existing maintain a unified Laws supporting rights
progressive to capture and utilise
evaluation system
GOI data base, including of poor and community feedback
Foundational assistance based on implement integrated social assistance the identification of marginalised people
taxation system
Activities services and programs isolated/ (Constitution, UU40, 13,
evidence programs marginalised 32, 17….) and sanctions
for the poor Institutional arrangements at National,
people, integrated for non-compliance Provincial and local levels
with GIS

When do you use it?


 Ideally developed during the design phase of a
program and then refined as required
 Can also be used with an existing program (i.e.
developed retrospectively) to help clarify the
‘theory in use’

Refer page 16

6
26/06/2014

A dynamic tool
 A program logic model can / should be adapted as
new things are learned
 Core purpose is to help us come to a more fully
shared understanding of how desired outcomes
might best be achieved
 It therefore needs to be refined when new learning
comes to light
 Even when a program logic model is developed
retrospectively as part of an evaluation it really
helps to develop it in a participatory manner

Why use program logic?


Two main reasons :
 As part of a planning process to clarify the logic of
the program intervention - often when the program
is in a stage of development or re-development
 To provide a framework to monitor and evaluate
and report on the performance of a program

7
26/06/2014

Who develops it?

Exercise: Car park logic


 Rules
 Take negative hat off
 Map consequences and not activities

Tips
 Don’t get bogged in the detail
 Its more strategic to work down. Its easier to work up!
 In this case the activity is given, so we work from the bottom up.
 In this example we are developing a retrospective logic model.

8
26/06/2014

Mechanisms
 Caught in the act
 Deterrence
 Natural surveillance
 Memory jogging

Broader goal Goal: Improved learning


outcomes.

O1: All girls, boys, O2: More


03: Children stay at
(including those with children
End-of program primary school for
disabilities) are able to enrol at
outcomes longer (without
access early years primary
repeating)
schooling school

Children with School There are


Communities special needs The cost of sufficient
Intermediate facilities &
value are able to schooling schools/
outcomes equipment
does not classrooms
education & access & are
restrict in the right
demand engage in attendance adequate
quality education and secure places

Locally relevant &


Key activities Engagement with
Fee subsidies efficient delivery of
the community
facilities & equipment

(Foundational)

9
26/06/2014

Specific purposes and use


 For program planning:
 to developing an initial program design
 for strategies
 for target setting
 To develop a more shared understanding of change in
your context
 For program refinement
 To develop a monitoring and evaluation framework
 for meaningful monitoring
 for strategic evaluation studies
 for effective reporting (structure for report)
 for reflection learning and improvement

Outcome Hierarchy Definition of level

Broader goals Broader goals that the program outcomes are expected Hitting the
to contribute towards (usually refer to social, economic or shore
environmental consequences)
End-of Program The desired final result of the program (may be some ripple
outcomes years after the program has finished)
Intermediate outcomes This relates to medium term outcomes that occur as a
result of the outputs, that contribute to the achievement
of program outcomes – generally includes practice and
policy changes
Immediate Things that are a direct result of the influence activity splash
changes(outputs)
Influence activities These are the program activities mostly done to bring
about change behaviour (or disseminate findings).

Foundational These are preliminary activities that occur before any Digging up
activities associated with changing or influencing the rocks
external environment.
Can include planning, research, collecting base line
data and forming partnerships

10
26/06/2014

The human hierarchy!

Building a real program logic

11
26/06/2014

Steps for developing a program logic

1. Clarify higher level outcomes (broader goals and


end of program outcomes)
2. Identify who we need to influence
3. Describe practice changes
4. Consider theories of action
5. Consider program activities
6. Consider engagement principles
7. Interrogate the logic

Clarify end of program outcomes


 In this workshop we assume that much of this thinking has been done
already and that we are mainly clarifying key outcomes
 If you have a totally blank sheet consider:
 conducting a situation (or needs) analysis
 conducting an audit of existing strengths
 consult stakeholders on the key values that need to be preserved/ enhanced/
restored
 prioritisation of key values
 development of conceptual models to understand how threats/risks and drivers
affect the key values or outcomes we wish to enhance
 consider what are the future trends and policy changes that may influence the
outcomes
 conducting a cost-benefit analysis
 consider public-private good

12
26/06/2014

Clarify goals and outcomes


Before we start with the goals and outcomes it can be important
to understand the context and desired future state

 Understand the current state


 what are the root causes, and what are the effects of the problem
 What is already in place
 What is changing in the internal and external context

 What the desired future state (or vision)


 What aspects of this are you aiming to achieve in the next few
years

Drivers
for
change
CURRENT STATE FUTURE STATE

Effects
of Possible
problem Broader
What What is Goals
works Problem already
around in
here “place” What is Possible
Causes of
changing in Outcomes
problem
internal &
external
environment

13
26/06/2014

1. Clarify program outcomes


 What would success look like at the broader level?
 What are the social, economic or environmental outcomes associated
with this?
 Can describe program goals or departmental goals that your program
will contribute towards?
 What is the public benefit from this work?

 Your end – of program outcomes


 Success at this level should describe what your program/ plan is directly
responsible for
 It should represent the unique contribution of your program/ plan
 It should be a stretch to achieve this, something that will encourage
excellence!
 It should be expressed as an end-state

Task
 Take the end–state cloud (workbook p. 2)
 Write up the main ideas as outcomes statements on
A6 paper (one outcome per piece of paper)
 Place a line on the shower curtain
 Divide your cards into those above the line (broader
goals) and those below the line (end of program
outcomes) - and link them
 There is space in your workbook to record this if you
wish (p.3)

14
26/06/2014

Tips for making outcome statements


 They need to be worded as an end-state. Describe
what change will look like. It must say ‘what’ not
‘how’. The ‘how’ is a lower step
 State outcomes succinctly (about 10 words or less)
 Define any specialist terms used in the statements
 Use plain English words in the statement—no
ambiguity
 My mother should understand it!

Steps for developing a program logic

1. Clarify higher level outcomes (broader goals and


end of program outcomes)
2. Identify who we need to influence
3. Describe practice changes
4. Consider theories of action
5. Consider program activities
6. Consider engagement principles
7. Interrogate the logic

15
26/06/2014

Intermediaries and end users


 It is important to distinguish between:
 Who is involved in implementing the program
 Who will help you achieve change
 Who your project is targeting for change

 To help with this distinction, we refer to:


 Intermediaries(‘boundary partners’)
 End users (beneficiaries)

Intermediaries and end users cont.


 Intermediaries are like the players in a relay race - we try
to influence them, so they will influence those we’re really
wanting to see change in:
 They pass the baton on
 We have direct influence over them – we have direct contact
 We rely on them to influence the end users
 Sometimes they are better placed than us to influence end-users
 The end users (beneficiaries) are those at the end of the
relay race
 They’ll hit the goal we’re after, e.g. program outcomes

Your work Intermediaries’ work End goal

16
26/06/2014

Why focus on intermediaries?


 The goal of many projects is associated with long
term outcomes that may be beyond our reach, e.g.
practice changes in clients we don’t meet
 Program logic focuses on practice changes in end
users and shorter term changes in intermediaries
 By differentiating between the two, particularly in
more complex projects, we also help to clarify what
we’re more directly accountable for

Sphere of influence and sphere of


concern

People you People you are


Your work directly trying to reach
program with (boundary (beneficiaries)
partners)

Sphere of influence Sphere of concern

17
26/06/2014

Brainstorm your stakeholders

 Brainstorm the stakeholders in your project


 Write them on post-it notes (only one per post-it)
 Be specific, where helpful (e.g. different government
departments, or units within a department)
 Categorise under the following headings:
 Intermediaries (people we work with)
 End users (people we’re trying to change)
 Interested outsiders (people you need to
tell the story of change to)
(workbook p. 4)

Develop a network map


 Using your workbook (p5) or flipchart paper, try
developing a network map with your stakeholder
groups
 Place your intermediaries and end users on the map
 Draw lines of contact between them, if possible
 Cluster groups of stakeholders where it makes sense
to do so:
 e.g. if you work in the same way with several stakeholders
 If you cluster stakeholders, give each group a title

18
26/06/2014

Steps for developing a program logic

1. Clarify higher level outcomes (broader goals and


end of program outcomes)
2. Identify who we need to influence
3. Describe practice changes
4. Consider theories of action
5. Consider program activities
6. Consider engagement principles
7. Interrogate the logic

TASK: Describe practice changes


What does success would ‘look like’ for your
intermediaries/end-users?
 For each group:

 Describe what they would be DOING differently/


what changes would have occurred in their lives/
practices /policies (workbook p 6)
 Transfer the statements (one per sheet of paper) to the
shower curtain - if you have written a lot, write a
summary title instead of the whole statement

19
26/06/2014

Developing intermediate outcomes


Intermediate outcomes are:
 necessary preconditions to achieve the broader

goals that are mapped out as a part of program


logic mapping
 stepping stones towards the achievement outcomes

 generally medium term

We usually have more opportunity to influence these


intermediate outcomes than the longer term outcomes,
which can be affected by a plethora of factors.

People in Bougainville have access to education,


employment and sufficient income to meet their
families needs

People in the
communities have
the skills and
capacity to
improve their own
lives

Local leaders Local NGOs have


support and the capacity to
understand how foster the
communities can empowerment of
be strengthened their constituents

program team works builds capacity of partners and


leaders

Refer page 24

20
26/06/2014

…continued (shower curtain then


workbook )
 Surfacing your simple program logic:
 Arrange how one outcome relates to another on the
shower curtain – add arrows
 When happy, document in workbook (p7)

 This is a simple logic model!

Steps for developing a program logic

1. Clarify higher level outcomes (broader goals and


end of program outcomes)
2. Identify who we need to influence
3. Describe practice changes
4. Consider theories of action
5. Consider program activities
6. Consider engagement principles
7. Interrogate the logic

21
26/06/2014

Generic theories of action


 To stimulate thinking we offer a number of generic
theories of action - including:
 carrot and the stick
 the persuasion model

 the empowerment model

 direct funding

 partnerships

PERSUASION
LOGIC
(Bennets)

VOLUNTARY
PRACTICE
CHANGE
Intermediate
outcomes =
knowledge,
attitudes, skills,
CHANGES IN KASA aspirations
(Knowledge, attitudes, skills,
aspirations)
HEARTS AND MINDS

DIRECT INDIRECT
Targeted population Environment disseminate to
Capacity building, skills enhancement, broad audience (TV, radio,
training ( usually expert driven, narrow intent) conference, publications)

22
26/06/2014

carrot n’ stick

LONG TERM VOLUNTARY


PRACTICE CHANGE

ATTITUDE Intermediate
CHANGE outcomes =
attitude change

NEW BEHAVIOUR IS
IRRESISTIBLE, EASY,
CONVENIENT, NECESSARY
(Compliance)

DIRECT INDIRECT
(+) Pay, bribe them, etc. (+) Broad scale incentives – easy, attractive,
(-) Restrict, arrest, prohibit convenient
(-) Legislation, policy, guidelines - Mandatory

Social capital / empowerment


NEW PRACTICES
IMPLEMENTED

ENHANCED CAPACITY TO ACT

INCREASED
CONFIDENCE,
SKILLS, SELF- Intermediate
BELIEF, ATTITUDES outcomes =
Increased
New confidence,
New opportunities skills, self belief
relationships and spaces
formed created

DIRECT INDIRECT Environment


Targeted intermediaries Create a learning
Build a supportive network, environment, create new
mentor, nurture self-sufficiency opportunities for networking
(multi purpose in intent) and problem solving

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26/06/2014

Direct funding model

Keep doing it as agreed as


long as funding is provided

Intermediate
Work is done as expected
outcomes =
practices done

DIRECT
Pay people to do something with conditions attached

Partnership model

Shared-outcomes are achieved


together that could not be
achieved alone

Both parties play the


role they commit to Intermediate
outcomes =
healthy
partnerships?
Healthy,
trusting
partnership
Understanding Partnership
each others agreements
non- made
negotiables
and priorities

Dialogue to identify shared priorities between


2 parties

24
26/06/2014

Task
 Examine all the theories of action provided and
consider the advantages and disadvantages of
each
 Decide which one(s) may be most useful for your
program logic

Steps for developing a program logic

1. Clarify higher level outcomes (broader goals and


end of program outcomes)
2. Identify who we need to influence
3. Describe practice changes
4. Consider theories of action
5. Consider program activities
6. Consider engagement principles
7. Interrogate the logic

Refer page 22

25
26/06/2014

Program activities
Two types of activities:
 Influence activities are any activities designed to bring about

aid outcomes. This can include capacity building, grants,


networking, technical assistance
 Foundational activities can be thought of as management

activities, or things that are done to support the influence


activities. They include monitoring and evaluation, contracting,
developing policy, collaborating with other programs etc.

Task
 Write down the activities that could help you achieve
your outcomes
 Use the theories of action to help you think this through
 Distinguish between influence and foundational
activities and arrange on the shower curtains
 Transfer to your workbook (p7)

26
26/06/2014

Steps for developing a program logic

1. Clarify higher level outcomes (broader goals and


end of program outcomes)
2. Identify who we need to influence
3. Describe practice changes
4. Consider theories of action
5. Consider program activities
6. Consider engagement principles
7. Interrogate the logic

Principles
 In addition to developing a logic model reflecting the
cause and effect relationships in a program, sometimes
it is useful to develop a set of “principles” to
accompany the model.
 Some common examples include:
 Working in a partnership
 Considering social inclusion and gender equity in all aspects
of our work
 Coordination with other funders

 Consideration of people with English as a second language.

27
26/06/2014

Steps for developing a program logic

1. Clarify higher level outcomes (broader goals and


end of program outcomes)
2. Identify who we need to influence
3. Describe practice changes
4. Consider theories of action
5. Consider program activities
6. Consider engagement principles
7. Interrogate the logic

Interrogating the logic


 It is traditional to build a logic in a ‘positive’ frame
of mind
 Afterwards we put a critical hat on and “interrogate
the logic”
 Involves exploring what could go wrong and
determining some of key underpinning assumptions
 Criticalanalysis of draft 1
 Identify hindering and helping factors

 Articulate the key assumptions

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26/06/2014

Critical analysis of draft 1- task


 Present logic to fresh group - after presenting basic
context, present your logic!

Check list for critique (p8)


 Is it plausible?

 Are there any miracle leaps?

 Is it simple enough/ yet complex as necessary?

 Outcomes worded as end-states?

 Linkages clear?

 Less than 10 words per statement in clear language?

TASK Factors
For each level of the hierarchy of outcomes:
 consider the factors that might hinder the outcomes

you have listed at each level (risks)


 Write factors down on blue post-it notes and stick to
model
 what activities can you do to mitigate against them?
 Write mitigating activities down on pink post-it notes
and stick to model
 see also workbook page 7 (columns in table)

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26/06/2014

Program assumptions

 When we develop a program logic, we are developing a


theory of how change occurs. In doing so we make a number
of assumptions, e.g.
(A) will happen
(A) → (B)

 Often implied and not expressly stated even though the


success of a program rests on them!
 It’s useful to clearly state the assumptions up-front so we can
interrogate whether or not they are in fact sound or plausible
 We can also research them through our monitoring and
evaluation activities

When do we analyse assumptions?


 Beginning/program design
 To ensure the program has a good chance of being
successful – if not don’t run it/fund it!!
 To prioritise different projects
 Examine existing evidence about what works
 As part of strategic evaluation
 To test unverified assumptions (leaps of faith)
 We don’t always have full knowledge when we commence a
program
 Particularly relevant in pilot programs

30
26/06/2014

Task: Program assumptions


 Stand back from your model - ‘zoom out’
 Consider your overarching assumptions
 Document them, wording them in the positive:
 “We assume that….”
 Rank the plausibility of your assumptions:
 How plausible are they?
 What evidence exists?
 How important is that we investigate this assumption further?

 Document your assumptions on page 8 of your


workbook

Finishing your model


 How to document it?

 How to create a narrative


Step 1 – Articulate the Drivers & the Scope
 What are the overarching drivers for investing in this program – e.g. the problem
definition or opportunity at hand (very briefly)
 Scope - include timeframe, or any other obvious boundaries - e.g. geographic
boundaries or sectoral boundaries.
Step 2 - Describe the Program Logic
 Describe the final outcomes or the vision - what is the ultimate ‘end-state’ we desire.
Then move to the bottom of the program logic model and move up the model,
telling the story of:
 what we are doing

 what that will lead to

 how that will contribute to the highest level outcomes

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26/06/2014

Using program logic

Program logic for design


 Used:
 at beginning of design phase
 to identify gaps in current logic
 at mid-term review to clarify design

 Difference with use in M&E:


 Logicis usually ‘done and dusted’, i.e. a given
 More central and contested in design; more detailed
 Needs to be translated into milestones and workplans
etc.
 Assumptions are used differently

32
26/06/2014

Program logic for design


Task: In organisational ‘groups’ or as individuals:
 Map out your organisational process for project
design projects, from strategy through to project
development
 Identify where you do, or where you might, use
program logic in this process
 Share and discuss on your table
 Report back to whole room:
 Where you currently use it in design and new ideas for
how you might use it

An integrated approach to M&E


Overarching M&E questions: eg: Effectiveness, Appropriateness, Efficiency,

Agreed program logic

Assumptions

What Monitoring (on-going) External evaluation


happened? Monitoring questions/ KPIs studies (discrete) Boundaries of the
(mainly effectiveness) Evaluation questions M&E framework

Answers to our overarching questions


So what?
Program
What now? Learning & Reporting and
adaptation and
dissemination accountability
improvement

Audience & Principles for the


requirements framework

33
26/06/2014

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y

Program logic used to


design/plan the
intervention and/or
Program cycle
describe the
intervention that is
being evaluated
• Development of
targets/KPIs

Collecting monitoring
data against the
Program logic used as program logic model
framework to to determine whether
organise results. we’re on track
Results might imply
the program logic
needs to be changed

Communicate
Program logic can be
results to used as a framework
stakeholders to report on results –
tell the story
and funders

34

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