Theory of Change Slides
Theory of Change Slides
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intervention
(later) monitor, evaluate and report on progress
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Project or program?
Can be applied at different levels of an
organisations:
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Goal: Improved
learning
outcomes.
O1: All girls, boys,
(including those with O2: More 03: Children stay at
disabilities) are able children enrol primary school for
to access early years at primary longer (without
schooling school repeating)
Shared Poverty alleviation Better health and well-being for all Socio-economic development
Development
Goals Reduction in gaps in health
The burden of non-
outcomes between Maternal new born and child Morbidity and mortality resulting from
communicable diseases
rich/poor, men/women, morbidity rates reduced communicable diseases reduced
reduced
urban/rural
Reduction in behaviour Mothers and babies are Safe Less Safe Communicable Spread of
Health Non-communicable
that increases risks of appropriately fed and delivery unwanted abortion disease infectious
Outcomes non-communicable
illness is identified
immunised, grow and and safe pregnanc availabl identified and diseases
and treated
diseases stay healthy pregnancy y e treated curtailed
Intermediate
Development Equitable access to curative, People access
preventative and rehabilitation curative, preventative Quality curative, preventative and
outcomes
services and rehabilitation rehabilitation services available
services
Servic
e
Cross Essential
provide
infection public health
All people People Citizen Physical rs
People Client service for all People Enough control functions:
able to have Health Locally participation infrastructure follow
practice so that people feel Access value and service Complaint by environmenta
physically information seeking available in and supplies ethical
hygiene accepted/welcomed not have providers service professio l health:, food
and and are behaviour services “demanding” available for and
and health and safe regardless limited confidence deployed procedure nalism safety,
financially aware of of and and improving essential best
promotion of age, sex, culture by cost in the across s and disaster
access services on individuals outreach services and health practic
exercise and ability service regions quality management
services offer accountability services e
control and
(profes
systems preparedness
sionali
sm)
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Resilient men and women of all ages able to withstand economic, political and environmental shocks and individual life-cycle crises
Poverty reduction The poorest 40%, marginalised and All Indonesian people are protected
outcomes All Indonesian people are protected
from chronic poverty through special needs people are from falling into poverty as a result of
universal insurance coverage permanently lifted from chronic economic, political and environmental
poverty shocks
Refer page 16
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A dynamic tool
A program logic model can / should be adapted as
new things are learned
Core purpose is to help us come to a more fully
shared understanding of how desired outcomes
might best be achieved
It therefore needs to be refined when new learning
comes to light
Even when a program logic model is developed
retrospectively as part of an evaluation it really
helps to develop it in a participatory manner
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Tips
Don’t get bogged in the detail
Its more strategic to work down. Its easier to work up!
In this case the activity is given, so we work from the bottom up.
In this example we are developing a retrospective logic model.
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Mechanisms
Caught in the act
Deterrence
Natural surveillance
Memory jogging
(Foundational)
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Broader goals Broader goals that the program outcomes are expected Hitting the
to contribute towards (usually refer to social, economic or shore
environmental consequences)
End-of Program The desired final result of the program (may be some ripple
outcomes years after the program has finished)
Intermediate outcomes This relates to medium term outcomes that occur as a
result of the outputs, that contribute to the achievement
of program outcomes – generally includes practice and
policy changes
Immediate Things that are a direct result of the influence activity splash
changes(outputs)
Influence activities These are the program activities mostly done to bring
about change behaviour (or disseminate findings).
Foundational These are preliminary activities that occur before any Digging up
activities associated with changing or influencing the rocks
external environment.
Can include planning, research, collecting base line
data and forming partnerships
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Drivers
for
change
CURRENT STATE FUTURE STATE
Effects
of Possible
problem Broader
What What is Goals
works Problem already
around in
here “place” What is Possible
Causes of
changing in Outcomes
problem
internal &
external
environment
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Task
Take the end–state cloud (workbook p. 2)
Write up the main ideas as outcomes statements on
A6 paper (one outcome per piece of paper)
Place a line on the shower curtain
Divide your cards into those above the line (broader
goals) and those below the line (end of program
outcomes) - and link them
There is space in your workbook to record this if you
wish (p.3)
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People in the
communities have
the skills and
capacity to
improve their own
lives
Refer page 24
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direct funding
partnerships
PERSUASION
LOGIC
(Bennets)
VOLUNTARY
PRACTICE
CHANGE
Intermediate
outcomes =
knowledge,
attitudes, skills,
CHANGES IN KASA aspirations
(Knowledge, attitudes, skills,
aspirations)
HEARTS AND MINDS
DIRECT INDIRECT
Targeted population Environment disseminate to
Capacity building, skills enhancement, broad audience (TV, radio,
training ( usually expert driven, narrow intent) conference, publications)
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carrot n’ stick
ATTITUDE Intermediate
CHANGE outcomes =
attitude change
NEW BEHAVIOUR IS
IRRESISTIBLE, EASY,
CONVENIENT, NECESSARY
(Compliance)
DIRECT INDIRECT
(+) Pay, bribe them, etc. (+) Broad scale incentives – easy, attractive,
(-) Restrict, arrest, prohibit convenient
(-) Legislation, policy, guidelines - Mandatory
INCREASED
CONFIDENCE,
SKILLS, SELF- Intermediate
BELIEF, ATTITUDES outcomes =
Increased
New confidence,
New opportunities skills, self belief
relationships and spaces
formed created
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Intermediate
Work is done as expected
outcomes =
practices done
DIRECT
Pay people to do something with conditions attached
Partnership model
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Task
Examine all the theories of action provided and
consider the advantages and disadvantages of
each
Decide which one(s) may be most useful for your
program logic
Refer page 22
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Program activities
Two types of activities:
Influence activities are any activities designed to bring about
Task
Write down the activities that could help you achieve
your outcomes
Use the theories of action to help you think this through
Distinguish between influence and foundational
activities and arrange on the shower curtains
Transfer to your workbook (p7)
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Principles
In addition to developing a logic model reflecting the
cause and effect relationships in a program, sometimes
it is useful to develop a set of “principles” to
accompany the model.
Some common examples include:
Working in a partnership
Considering social inclusion and gender equity in all aspects
of our work
Coordination with other funders
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Linkages clear?
TASK Factors
For each level of the hierarchy of outcomes:
consider the factors that might hinder the outcomes
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Program assumptions
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Assumptions
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Collecting monitoring
data against the
Program logic used as program logic model
framework to to determine whether
organise results. we’re on track
Results might imply
the program logic
needs to be changed
Communicate
Program logic can be
results to used as a framework
stakeholders to report on results –
tell the story
and funders
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