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The
Rhodes
Cook
Letter
July 2018
 The Rhodes Cook Letter
JULY 2018 / VOL. 18, NO. 3
(ISSN 1552-8189)

Contents
I. In the Shadow of Trump. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
Chart: Selected 2018 Trump Primary Endorsements. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
Chart & Line Graph: Trump’s Presidential Approval Rating Compared to
Other Recent Presidents. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
Chart: & Line Graph: Trump’s Presidential Approval Rating by Party:
Republicans Stay Loyal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

II. Primary Charts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

Chart & Map: The Summer Primaries. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
Chart & Line Graph: Incumbent Congressional, Gubernatorial Primary
Losers since 2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
Chart: 2018 Primaries: Incumbent Losers and Notable Challenges. . . . . . 10
Chart & Map: 2018 Battle of the Primary Ballots: Based on
Gubernatorial Turnout in Six of the Largest States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

III. 2017-18 Special Elections. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

Chart: 2017-18 Special Senate, House Election Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
Chart: The Changing Composition of the 115th Congress . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

IV. For the Record. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

Chart & Maps: What’s Up in 2018 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

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The Rhodes Cook Letter • July 2018 2

 2018: In the Shadow of Trump
I t is safe to say that no president in our history has thrown himself into a midterm election
as fully and forcefully as Donald Trump.
He has already indicated his intention to campaign “six or seven days” per week this fall for
embattled Republican congressional candidates. That is far more than earlier presidents, who
placed the emphasis on governing during a midterm election year and making only sporadic
appearances on the campaign trail.
Yet the biggest difference between Trump and his predecessors is happening now, as the
incumbent throws himself into his party’s primaries as no other president ever has. Tweets,
campaign rallies, recorded telephone messages have all been used to promote candidates he
favors and defame those he opposes. Earlier White House occupants basically kept out of the
nominating process in midterm years, preferring to risk neither their political capital or be
viewed as a divisive force by their party. Any presidential involvement in the primaries was
generally limited.
Dwight D. Eisenhower was adamant about keeping an arms-length from intraparty contests. “I
have always refused in advance of any primary or any selection of (a) Republican candidate for
any office to intervene in any way,” said Ike in 1958, “and I wouldn’t want to be used directly
or indirectly in such a campaign.”
Nearly a quarter century later, Ronald Reagan was just as adamant. He “literally would not
support his own daughter in a primary because he felt so strongly that the party and president
should not take sides,” former Republican National Committee Chairman Haley Barbour once
observed. Maureen Reagan finished fifth in the 1982 California GOP Senate primary.
On the Democratic side, the presidential involvement in congressional primaries was by
and large similarly limited. In his lone midterm election in 1962, John F. Kennedy made a
controversial endorsement of the embattled chairman of the House Public Works Committee,
Charles A. Buckley of New York. Kennedy announced his support for Buckley in a letter,
putting himself at odds with New York City Mayor Robert Wagner, Eleanor Roosevelt, and
the reform wing of the state Democratic Party. With JFK’s help, Buckley narrowly won
renomination for a 15th term. Fortunately for the Democrats, the race did not leave lasting
scars, since it was widely understood that it would be Buckley’s last term.
But the one place where Kennedy might have been expected to get visibly involved but did
not was in the campaign of his 30-year-old brother, Edward, for the president’s old Senate
seat in Massachusetts. JFK and his allies provided Teddy with plenty of aid behind the scenes,
but the president was careful to take a hand-off attitude in public. The younger Kennedy was
nominated and elected by decisive margins.
As for Trump, he has flaunted his hands-on role, using his overwhelming popularity within the
Republican Party to endorse candidates across the country and up and down the ballot – at the
Senate, House, and gubernatorial levels (as well as for lesser elective offices). Sometimes he has
forcefully opposed a candidate who he viewed as either unfriendly or unelectable. Much more
often he has directly backed a candidate who he has seen as both friendly to him and electable
in November. And then there have been the Trump primary endorsements that appeared to
have a guileful quality to them. In advance of the primary in Texas, the president tweeted his
support of state Land Commissioner George P. Bush, the son of Trump’s foil from the 2016
Republican presidential campaign, Jeb Bush.

The Rhodes Cook Letter • July 2018 3

In Utah, Trump threw his backing behind another one-time critic, Mitt Romney, the 2012
Republican presidential candidate who entered the Senate race to succeed the retiring Orrin
Hatch. Back in 2016, Romney had intimated that Trump was unfit for office, saying: “Think of
Donald Trump’s personal qualities, the bullying, the greed, the showing off, the misogyny, the
absurd third-grade theatrics."
South
Selected 2018 Trump Primary Endorsements 45%
Over the years, presidents have rarely ventured very far into the realm of congressional and gubernatorial
primaries. There has often been concern that such involvement may not look presidential or could cost the
occupant of the White House political capital if his candidate should lose. Until now, Democrat Franklin
D. Roosevelt had been the most proactive president in trying to reshape the nature of his party through
the primary process. In the midterm election of 1938, he sought to purge a dozen Democratic members of
Congress, but succeeded in denying renomination to only one of them. Such a poor track record served as
a powerful warning to FDR’s successors not to get too engaged in congressional or gubernatorial primaries.
That is, until 2018, with President Donald Trump jumping into the Republican nominating process with gusto.
He opposed a few big-name candidates - Rep. Mark Sanford of South Carolina and controversial West Virginia
Senate entry Don Blankenship come quickly to mind - but Trump has mainly offered friendly candidates his
endorsement. To be sure, the list below is a selective one. But in basically every race cited, Trump has gotten
the result he has wanted.

Senate Current Trump Primary

State
Candidate Position Position Outcome for Candidate
Lou Barletta U.S. Representative Pa. For Won
John Barrasso Incumbent Wyo. For (Primary - Aug. 21)
Marsha Blackburn U.S. Representative Tenn. For (Primary - Aug. 2)
Don Blankenship Ex-coal baron W.Va. Against Lost
Deb Fischer Incumbent Neb. For Won
Dean Heller Incumbent Nev. For Won
Jim Renacci U.S. Representative Ohio For Won
Mitt Romney Ex-Governor (MA) Utah For Won
Roger Wicker Incumbent Miss. For Won
Gubernatorial Current Trump Primary
State
Candidate Position Position Outcome for Candidate
John Cox Businessman Calif. For Qualified for Nov. ballot#
Ron DeSantis U.S. Representative Fla. For (Primary - Aug. 28)
Brian Kemp GA Secretary of State Ga. For Won Runoff
Henry McMaster Incumbent@ S.C. For Won Runoff
Bill Schuette MI Attorney General Mich. For (Primary - Aug. 7)
House Current Trump Primary
State
Candidate Position Position Outcome for Candidate
Dan Donovan Incumbent N.Y. 11 For Won
Martha Roby Incumbent Ala. 2 For Won Runoff
Mark Sanford Incumbent S.C. 1 Against Lost
Note: A pound sign (#) indicates that Republican John Cox finished second in California’s “top two” primary
and qualified for the November gubernatorial primary. The icon “@” denotes that Henry McMaster is an
unelected incumbent, taking office in early 2017 when Gov. Nikki Haley (R) left to become ambassador to the
United Nations.
Source: This selective list of Republican primary endorsements this year by President Donald Trump was
compiled from articles in The New York Times, The Washington Post, and other reliable news sources.

The Rhodes Cook Letter • July 2018 4

And in Alabama, Trump endorsed another critic from two years ago, Rep. Martha Roby, before
her runoff against a former Democratic congressman. In the fall of 2016, she had lambasted
Trump after release of the Access Hollywood tapes, saying that his language was “unacceptable”
and that she could not vote for him. “I cannot look my children in the eye and justify my vote
for a man who promotes and boasts about sexually assaulting women."
After the 2016 election, both Roby and Romney toned down their criticism of Trump, with
Romney even being publicly considered for secretary of state in the Trump administration.

Trump's Presidential Approval Rating

Compared to Other Recent Presidents
Trump's job approval rating in the Gallup Poll compared to other recent presidents at
six-month intervals from the start of their administrations to 18 months in office

Trump Reagan H.W. Bush Clinton W. Bush Obama

100%-

80%-

60%-

40%-

20%-

0%-
Immediate 6 Months 12 Months 18 Months
Post-Inauguration

Even before Donald Trump was inaugurated president in January 2017, it seemed as though most Americans had
already made up their minds about what they thought of him. As a result, there was no honeymoon for Trump
like there has been for other recent presidents, but no collapse into the netherworld of polling either. Trump's job
approval rating over his first 18 months in office has stayed within a comparatively narrow range percentagewise
- from the mid-30s to the mid-40s, and he is the first president since the end of World War II not to have reached
50% in the Gallup Poll at least one time in the first year and a half of his presidency. Yet his mid-July 2018
approval rating of 42% is the same as Ronald Reagan's and Bill Clinton's 18 months into their presidencies, and
only 3 percentage points behind that of Barack Obama.
Comparison of Trump's job approval rating in the Gallup Poll with other recent presidents at six-month
intervals from the start of their administrations to 18 months in office.
Immediate 6 12 Change from start of
President Post-Inauguration 18 Months
Months Months presidency to 18 months in
Donald Trump (2017-18) 45% 37% 36% 42% - 3%
Ronald Reagan (1981-82) 51% 60% 47% 42% - 9%
George H.W. Bush (1989-90) 51% 66% 80% 60% + 9%
Bill Clinton (1993-94) 58% 41% 54% 42% - 16%
George W. Bush (2001-02) 57% 56% 84% 69% + 12%
Barack Obama (2009-10) 67% 56% 49% 45% - 22%
Note: Donald Trump's presidential job approval ratings featured in the chart above are from weekly Gallup Polls
covering the following dates: Jan. 20-29, 2017; July 17-23, 2017; Jan. 15-21, 2018; and July 16-22, 2018. Job approval
ratings for his recent predecessors (starting with Ronald Reagan) were taken at similar points in their presidencies.
Sources: The Gallup Poll.

The Rhodes Cook Letter • July 2018 5

Ultimately, all three candidates this year, including George P. Bush, won their nominating
contests with ease.
Since his ill-starred endorsement of interim Senator Luther Strange in last year’s Alabama
special Senate election that the GOP lost, Trump has had one success after another in the
Republican primaries. Even two high-riding candidates he forcefully opposed both lost. The
first, controversial former coal baron Don Blankenship advertised himself in this May’s West
Virginia Senate primary as “Trumpier than Trump.” But Blankenship was dismissed by the
president as unelectable with two words, “Remember Alabama,” and finished a distant third in
the Republican field.
(Continued on Page 9)

Trump Presidential Approval Rating by Party:

Republicans Stay Loyal
Eighteen months into his presidency, Donald Trump’s job approval rating has stayed tepid among independents
and nearly infinitesimal among Democrats. But support for Trump among the Republican rank and file has
remained close to unanimous. That has helped to keep nearly all of the GOP members of Congress publicly in
lockstep with the president, while enabling Trump to think, talk, and act outside the box that his presidential
predecessors have normally stayed
within. Trump has exercised Trump’s presidential job approval rating in the Gallup Poll
an outsized role in this year’s
Republican primaries, favoring
some candidates, opposing others,
Republican Democrat Independent Overall
and generally shaping his party’s
field of candidates more than any
previous president. The Gallup 100%-
Poll is used here because of its
long track record in measuring 80%-
presidential approval ratings back
to the 1930s. Their surveys are
used to show Trump’s approval 60%-
ratings among Republicans,
Democrats, and independents, 40%-
as well as among citizens overall
at six-month intervals. They start 20%-
with the president’s inauguration
in January 2017 and extend to
0%-
mid-July 2018, when he held his Post-
controversial summit in Helsinki 6 months 12 months 18 months
Inauguration
with Russian President Vladimir ( July 2017) ( Jan. 2018) ( July 2018)
( Jan. 2017)
Putin.

Trump’s presidential job approval rating in the Gallup Poll at six-month intervals
from the start of his administration to July 2018.
Post-Inauguration 6 months 12 months 18 months Change
( Jan. 2017) ( July 2017) ( Jan. 2018) ( July 2018) ( Jan. ‘17-July ‘18)
Overall 45% 37% 36% 42% - 3%
Republicans 89% 86% 81% 85% - 4%
Independents 42% 31% 31% 37% - 5%
Democrats 13% 8% 5% 11% - 2%
Note: Donald Trump’s presidential job approval ratings featured in the chart above are from weekly Gallup
Polls covering the following dates: Jan. 20-29, 2017; July 17-23, 2017; Jan. 15-21, 2018; and July 16-22, 2018.
Source: The web site of the Gallup Poll.

The Rhodes Cook Letter • July 2018 6

 The Summer Primaries

States with governor, Senate and House primaries

States with gubernatorial and House primaries
States with Senate and House primaries
R State with gubernatorial primary only
R State with a runoff

The 2018 primary season ends with a flurry of contests that will take place from early August to mid-September.
Twenty states will finish their nominating process in this period, including two of the nation's most populous,
Florida and Michigan, as well as several medium-sized states - Arizona, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri,
Tennessee, Washington, and Wisconsin. Washington will hold an all-party "top two" primary similar in format
to that held in California on June 5. In addition, New York will hold a primary for state offices on Sept. 13, two
and a half months after the Empire State held its congressional primaries. The September balloting will feature a
Democratic gubernatorial primary between incumbent Andrew Cuomo and actress Cynthia Nixon, a star of the
late TV series, "Sex and the City."

Date State House Seats Senators Governors

August 2 Tennessee 9 X X
Kansas 4 X
Michigan 14 X X
August 7
Missouri 8 X
Washington 10 X
August 11 Hawaii 2 X X
Connecticut 5 X X
Minnesota 8 XX X
August 14
Vermont 1 X X
Wisconsin 8 X X
Alaska 1 X
August 21
Wyoming 1 X X
Arizona 9 X X
August 28 Florida 27 X X
Oklahoma Runoff 5 X
September 4 Massachusetts 9 X X
September 6 Delaware 1 X
New Hampshire 2 X
September 11
Rhode Island 2 X X
September 13 New York* X
Note: "XX" indicates Minnesota has two Senate races this year, a regularly scheduled one involving
Democratic incumbent Amy Klobuchar, the other a special election for the seat vacated by Al Franken
early this year that is currently held by Democrat Tina Smith. An asterisk (*) denotes New York held its
congressional primaries on June 26; the Sept. 13 primary will be for state offices only.
Sources: Federal Election Commission and the National Conference of State Legislatures for 2018 primary dates.

The Rhodes Cook Letter • July 2018 7

 Incumbent Congressional, Gubernatorial
Primary Losers Since 2000
House members defeated in primaries since 2000
Senators defeated in primaries since 2000
Governors defeated in primaries since 2000

13-
12-
11-
10-
9-
8-
7-
6-
5-
4-
3-
2-
1-
0-
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Since the turn of the century, 48 House members, seven senators, and five governors have lost their bids for renomination.
That is an average of nearly five House members who have lost their primaries in each election cycle since 2000, but less
than one governor and one senator. Through July, just over halfway through the 2018 primary season, three House members
had lost primaries as well as one senator. The House casualties were Republicans Robert Pittenger of North Carolina and
Mark Sanford of South Carolina, as well as Democrat Joseph Crowley of New York. The lone senator to lose an intraparty
contest this election cycle has been Luther Strange of Alabama, who was appointed to his seat in early 2017 and lost his bid
to hold it later in the year in the Republican runoff portion of a special election.

Incumbents Denied
Incumbents Denied Nomination
Nomination
Election (by name)
(by number)
House Senate Governors Senators Terms Governors Terms
2000 3 0 0 - -
Bob Smith (R-N.H.)
2002 8 1 0 2 -
(lost to John E. Sununu)
Bob Holden (D-Mo.)
1
(lost to Claire McCaskill)
2004 2 0 2 -
Olene Walker (R-Utah)#
@
(lost to Jon Huntsman)
Frank Murkowski
Joe Lieberman (D-Conn.)*
2006 2 1 1 3 (R-Alaska) 1
(lost to Ned Lamont)
(lost to Sarah Palin)
2008 4 0 0 - -

The Rhodes Cook Letter • July 2018 8

 Incumbents Denied
Incumbents Denied Nomination
Nomination
Election (by name)
(by number)
House Senate Governors Senators Terms Governors Terms
Robert Bennett (R-Utah)#
3
(lost to Mike Lee)
Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska)* Jim Gibbons (R-Nev.)
2010 4 3 1 1 1
(lost to Joe Miller) (lost to Brian Sandoval)
Arlen Specter (D-Pa.)
5
(lost to Joe Sestak)
Richard Lugar (R-Ind.)
2012 13 1 0 6 -
(lost to Richard Mourdock)
Neil Abercrombie
2014 4 0 1 - (D-Hawaii) 1
(lost to David Ige)
2016 5 0 0 - -
2018 Luther Strange (R-Ala.)
3 1 (S) 0 @ -
(through July) (lost to Roy Moore)
Note: "(S)" indicates a special election that was held in 2017. An asterisk (*) denotes that the incumbent was reelected on
a third party ballot line or as a write-in candidate. A pound sign (#) denotes that the incumbent was denied renomination
at the Republican state convention. The icon "@" indicates that the incumbent was unelected and was engaged in their first
election to hold the Senate seat or governorship.
Source: Editions of America Votes (CQ Press, an imprint of SAGE) for incumbent congressional and gubernatorial primary
or convention losers from 2000 through 2016; the web site of the Alabama secretary of state for information regarding the
state's 2017 special Senate election.

(Continued from Page 6)

The other candidate that Trump opposed, Rep. Mark Sanford of South Carolina, was the victim
of a hostile tweet by Trump just hours before the polls closed for the June 12 Republican
primary. The tweet disparaged Sanford and elevated his opponent, state Rep. Katie Arrington,
who won the primary.
The result reinforced a basic theme of this year’s Republican primaries: support Trump and
win, oppose him and lose. Few GOP candidates are taking the latter option, as Republican
candidates trip over themselves to win a Trump endorsement or at least to identify themselves
as closely as they can with the president.
An irony of the situation is that many of Trump’s endorsements have gone to incumbents in
spite of the president’s sometimes heated anti-establishment rhetoric. Case in point: Nevada.
Embattled Republican Sen. Dean Heller faced the prospect of a primary challenge from Danny
Tarkanian, the son of the legendary former Nevada-Las Vegas (UNLV) basketball coach. But the
Trump White House weighed in to clear the primary for Heller by nudging Tarkanian out of the
Senate race and into a House contest.
Before Trump, the president most engaged in his party's midterm primaries was Franklin D.
Roosevelt, By 1938, FDR was annoyed by growing congressional opposition to his New Deal
agenda as well as his controversial 1937 effort to enlarge the Supreme Court, and decided to
seek the defeat of unfriendly Democrats in both houses in the midterm election the following
year.
Nine senators and three representatives were targeted by FDR for purging, with the manner
and degree of presidential intervention varying. Direct and open opposition was reserved for a
few special targets, such as Sen. Walter F. George of Georgia, a powerful player among the large
bloc of Southern Democrats in Congress that opposed much of the New Deal agenda.

(Continued on Page 11)

The Rhodes Cook Letter • July 2018 9
 2018 Primaries: Incumbent Losses and
Notable Challenges
With the 2018 primary season more than half over, the total number of congressional and gubernatorial
incumbents that have been denied renomination stands at a paltry three - no senators, no governors, and three
House members. Most of the limited competition through July has been on the Republican side, where President
Trump has shown his dominance over the party. In South Carolina, for instance, just hours before the polls closed
on June 12, Trump tweeted his opposition to Rep. Mark Sanford and his support of the incumbent’s lesser known
challenger. Sanford was defeated. On Staten Island, Trump backed Republican Rep. Dan Donovan over former
Rep. Michael Grimm, who had been forced out of office in 2015 for pleading guilty to tax fraud. He still remained
popular among many rank-and-file GOP voters, but with Trump's backing, Donovan won the June 26 Republican
primary easily. Meanwhile, the Democratic infighting between progressives and the party establishment has
broken out in several places. In two of the most prominent races, Democratic Rep. Dan Lipinski of Chicago barely
survived a challenge from his left. But in New York City, a progressive grass-roots newcomer, Alexandria Ocasio-
Cortez, scored the upset of the primary season by beating one of the Democratic leaders in the House, Caucus
Chairman Joseph Crowley. Overnight, the win made Ocasio-Cortez a national figure and a hero of progressives
everywhere. But her triumph was achieved in a primary that drew less than 30,000 voters. In the chart below,
“Notable Challenges” are those where the incumbent won with less than two-thirds of the primary vote.

Nominated with less than two-thirds of the primary vote (66.7%)

GOVERNORS
Current % of Primary Victory ‘16 Pres. Vote
Incumbent
Term (Runoff) Vote Margin in State
NOTABLE CHALLENGES
42.3%
Henry McMaster (R-S.C.) @ Beat John Warren in runoff by 7% Trump by 14%
(53.6%)
Bruce Rauner (R-Ill.) 1 51.5% Beat Jeanne Ives by 3% Clinton by 17%
Kay Ivey (R-Ala.) @ 56.1% Beat Tommy Battle by 31% Trump by 28%
SENATOR
Current % of Primary Victory ‘16 Pres. Vote
Incumbent
Term (Runoff) Vote Margin in State
NOTABLE CHALLENGES
Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) 2 62.1% Beat Lisa McCormick by 24% Clinton by 14%
REPRESENTATIVES
Current % of Primary Victory ‘16 Pres. Vote
Incumbent
Term (Runoff) Vote Margin in District
DEFEATED (3)
Lost to Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Joseph Crowley (D-N.Y. 14) 10 42.5% Clinton by 57%
by 15%
Robert Pittenger (R-N.C. 9) 3 46.2% Lost to Mark Harris by 2% Trump by 12%
Mark Sanford (R-S.C. 1) 5 46.5% Lost to Katie Arrington by 4% Trump by 14%
NOTABLE CHALLENGES
39.0%
Martha Roby (R-Ala. 2) 4 Beat Bobby Bright in runoff by 36% Trump by 31%
(68.0%)
Walter B. Jones (R-N.C. 3) 12 43.0% Beat Phil Law by 14% Trump by 23%
Dan Lipinski (D-Ill. 3) 7 51.1% Beat Marie Newman by 2% Clinton by 15%
Yvette Clarke (D-N.Y. 9) 6 51.9% Beat Adem Bunkeddeko by 4% Clinton by 69%
Doug Lamborn (R-Colo. 5) 6 52.2% Beat Darryl Glenn by 32% Trump by 24%

The Rhodes Cook Letter • July 2018 10

 REPRESENTATIVES (continued)
Current % of Primary Victory ‘16 Pres. Vote
Incumbent
Term (Runoff) Vote Margin in District
NOTABLE CHALLENGES
Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla. 2) 3 54.1% Beat Jarrin Jackson by 29% Trump by 50%
Lloyd Smucker (R-Pa. 11)* 1 58.5% Beat Chester Beiler by 17% Trump by 6%*
Carolyn Maloney (D-N.Y. 12) 13 58.8% Beat Suraj Patel by 18% Clinton by 69%
Larry Buchson (R-Ind. 8) 4 59.7% Beat Richard Moss by 33% Trump by 33%
Barbara Comstock (R-Va. 10) 2 60.7% Beat Shak Hill by 21% Clinton by 10%
Mo Brooks (R-Ala. 5) 4 61.3% Beat Clayton Hinchman by 23% Trump by 33%
Mike Quigley (D-Ill. 5) 4 62.5% Beat Sameena Mustafa by 38% Clinton by 46%
Eddie Bernice Johnson
13 63.6% Beat Barbara Caraway by 41% Clinton by 61%
(D-Texas 30)
Dan Donovan (R-N.Y. 11) 1 63.9% Beat Michael Grimm by 28% Trump by 9%
Brendan Boyle (D-Pa. 2) 2 64.6% Beat Michele Lawrence by 29% Clinton by 33%*
Tom Cole (R-Okla. 4) 8 64.7% Beat James Taylor by 29% Trump by 38%
John Carter (R-Texas 31) 8 65.5% Beat Mike Sweeney by 31% Trump by 13%
Adrian Smith (R-Neb. 3) 6 65.7% Beat Kirk Penner by 40% Trump by 54%
Note: All results are official, except for Indiana and New York. They are nearly complete but unofficial. Results
from both states are nearly complete but unofficial. The icon “@” denotes an unelected incumbent. An asterisk
(*) indicates that the congressional district lines were changed in Pennsylvania for the 2018 election. The district
numbers are those in effect for this year. The presidential vote results are from the districts that the incumbents
were elected to serve in 2016. Current term refers to which full term in office the incumbent is serving.
Sources: The 2018 primary vote percentages are based on official returns posted on state election web sites.
The current term of each incumbent is from The Almanac of American Politics 2018 (National Journal/Columbia
Books & Information Services). The 2016 presidential vote by congressional district is from the same source.

(Continued from Page 9)

Appearing on the same platform with George in a small town in central Georgia, FDR threw
down the gauntlet. He felt “impelled,” he said, “to make it clear that on most public questions
he (George) and I do not speak the same language. And he urged support for one of George’s
primary challengers.
George, though, prevailed in the primary while Roosevelt’s choice finished a distant third. Of
the entire group targeted by FDR, only Rep. John J. O’Connor of New York, the chairman of the
House Rules Committee, was a primary loser.

The Importance of Republican Support

O ne of Trump’s greatest successes has been to garner virtually unanimous support from
Republican voters. It has enabled him to dominate the political scene in spite of an overall
job approval rating that has been decidedly mediocre since his inauguration.
Before Trump, presidents were judged almost exclusively on their overall approval ratings, less
so on how they were viewed by independents and voters in the two major parties.
But Trump has been able to reverse that, using an approval score approaching 90% among
Republicans to build a firewall of sorts around his presidency. As long as the GOP controls
Congress, and Republican voters keep pressuring their representatives to remain loyal to the
president, the White House has been able to “let Trump be Trump.”

The Rhodes Cook Letter • July 2018 11

That covers his actions on both the national and international stages, as well as his efforts to
mold the GOP into a pro-Trump entity.
Good things, however, rarely come in the fall to presidents with overall midterm year job
approval ratings in the low-to-mid 40s, which is where Trump has found himself of late.
Republicans lost 26 House seats in 1982 when Ronald Reagan’s July approval score stood at
42%. Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, who were at 42 percent and 45 percent job approval
in the Gallup Poll in July 1994 and July 2010, respectively, each saw the year end in electoral
disaster for the Democrats. The president’s party lost the House in 2010 and both the House
and the Senate in 1994.
Trump is the first president since World War II who has not reached a job approval score of at
least 50 percent in the Gallup Poll by this point in his presidency. Nonetheless, he is wielding
considerable influence in the 2018 primaries. In the past, a succession of sub-50% scores
have often been interpreted to mean that the White House had little political capital and was
struggling to remain relevant. But that is not the case now. Trump’s strong Republican support
has enabled him to act without restraint as the riveting central figure of the 2018 campaign.
One of the most unusual aspects of Trump’s approval ratings has been that they have changed
very little since his inauguration in January 2017. Most presidents have a post-inaugural
“honeymoon” period that lasts several months before they gradually begin to lose ground.
Obama, for example, began his presidency in January 2009 with an approval rating of 67
percent. He stayed above 60 percent until June 2009, and did not fall below 50 percent until
that November.
The controversial Trump did not have a honeymoon. He began his presidency with an overall
Gallup approval rating of 45%, hit his nadir of 35% in the late summer and fall of 2017, before
rebounding to 45% again in mid-June 2018 when the news was dominated by his meeting with
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. That score, however, did not last, as Trump fell back to 42%
in the Gallup Poll by the time he reached the 18-month mark of his presidency in mid-July. As
the end of July neared, he was down to 40%.
Throughout his presidency, Trump’s overall approval ratings have reflected consistently high
support among Republicans, infinitesimal approval among Democrats, and a score among
independents that is usually closer to the Democrats than the Republicans. Case in point:
the July 16-22, Gallup Poll, which showed the president with 85 percent job approval among
Republicans, 37% among independents, and 11% among Democrats.
These numbers show a very high degree of polarization in the political process, and arguably
means that in terms of the 2018 midterm elections, Trump is at the height of his effectiveness
now when the Republican primaries are in full swing. In the fall campaign, the president’s
involvement could very well be a mixed bag. He could be of value to the GOP in rallying
the Republican base, but also will be a lightning rod for the Democratic opposition, which is
already well energized and happy to make the 2018 election a referendum on Donald Trump.
Normally historical precedents help to define what may lie ahead. But this first national election
since Trump’s victory two years ago has a bit of mystery to it. It remains to be seen whether
the November balloting will see a continuation of the usual midterm trend with losses by the
president’s party or will be the start of a new, less predictable era that Trump has instigated.

Note: Portions of this piece appeared in a blog for the Voting and Elections Collection of SAGE Publications.

The Rhodes Cook Letter • July 2018 12

 2018 Battle of the Primary Ballots: Based on
Gubernatorial Turnout in Six of the Largest States
Over the course of recent elections, the term “enthusiasm gap”
has worked its way into the political vernacular. It describes
the advantage that one party has over the other in the number
of passionate voters that are ready to vote. Clues as to which
party has the most enthusiasm going into the November election
have been evident in recent years in the primary balloting. The
Republicans drew the most primary votes in 2010 and 2014
(based almost always on the statewide office that registered the
highest primary vote in each state, whether governor or senator).
The GOP went on to win the House in 2010 and the House and
the Senate in 2014. When looking at six of the nation’s most
populous states that have already held their primaries thus far
this year, both parties have won far more primary votes in these
states than 2014. But this time, the Democrats are well ahead in Populous states where Democrats have
the aggregate big-state gubernatorial tally. To be sure, each party had the larger gubernatorial primary
has drawn the higher primary vote total in 2018 in three of these turnout in 2018
states – California, Illinois, and Pennsylvania by the Democrats, Populous states where Republicans have
and Georgia, Ohio, and Texas by the Republicans. But Democrats had the larger gubernatorial primary
took 55% of the gubernatorial primary vote in these six states this turnout in 2018
year, while Republicans boasted an aggregate 52% in the same
half dozen in 2014.
2018 Primary Turnout by Party
% of D-R Primary Vote
Total Dems. Reps. Plurality
Dem. Rep.
California (*) 6,869,649 4,350,513 2,519,136 D 1,831,377 63% 37%
Georgia 1,162,530 555,089 607,441 R 52,352 48% 52%
Illinois 2,046,710 1,324,548 722,162 D 602,386 65% 35%
Ohio 1,523,755 688,788 834,967 R 146,179 45% 55%
Pennsylvania 1,487,124 749,812 737,312 D 12,500 50% 50%
Texas 2,571,564 1,022,558 1,549,006 R 526,448 40% 60%
TOTAL 15,661,332 8,691,308 6,970,024 D 1,721,284 55% 45%
2014 Primary Turnout by Party
% of D-R Primary Vote
Total Dems. Reps. Plurality
Dem. Rep.
California (*) 4,121,778 2,391,793 1,729,985 D 661,808 58% 42%
Georgia 900,461 304,243 596,218 R 291,975 34% 66%
Illinois 1,267,028 447,318 819,710 R 372,392 35% 65%
Ohio 999,924 440,253 559,671 R 119,418 44% 56%
Pennsylvania 1,218,474 845,009 373,465 D 471,544 69% 31%
Texas 1,891,889 554,014 1,337,875 R 783,861 29% 71%
TOTAL 10,399,554 4,982,630 5,416,924 R 434,294 48% 52%
Note: An asterisk (*) indicates that California ran a unique gubernatorial primary in both 2014
and 2018, in which candidates ran together on a single ballot and the two leading candidates,
regardless of party, qualified for the November election. The Democratic and Republican primary
total for governor in both years reflects the number of votes cast for all of the Democratic and all
of the Republican candidates. Votes for independent and third party candidates in the California
gubernatorial primary were not included in the overall tally in either year.
Sources: The 2014 Democratic and Republican gubernatorial primary turnouts are from America
Votes 31 (CQ Press, an imprint of SAGE), while official 2018 primary turnouts for the two major
parties are from the election web sites of the various states involved.

The Rhodes Cook Letter • July 2018 13

 2017-18 Special Senate, House Election Results
The 2017-18 special congressional election season is winding down, with national attention moving to the year's
primary contests and other events that are helping to define this raucous political season. The latest special House
election held June 30 in the Texas 27th District drew less than 40,000 voters, the lowest turnout for any of the
nine special House elections contested since President Trump's inauguration. Republican Michael Cloud easily
defeated Democrat Eric Holguin in the all-party balloting in the GOP-oriented district, 55% to 32%, with 7% for other
Democratic candidates, 5% for other Republican entries, and 1% combined for a pair of independent candidates and
a Libertarian entry. The Texas special election was held on short notice, less than three months after GOP Rep. Blake
Farenthold resigned under pressure for sexual missteps. Describing it as an "emergency special election," Texas'
Republican Gov. Greg Abbott ostensibly scheduled the "snap" election to make sure the Gulf coast district, battered
last year by Hurricane Harvey, would have only a small break in representation. Abbott then endorsed Cloud, a one-
time Victoria County Republican chairman. Next up on the special election front: a contest in the Columbus-area
Ohio 12th District Aug. 7 for the seat vacated by Republican Rep. Pat Tiberi in January. It is a Republican-leaning
district, carried by Trump in 2016 by 11 percentage points.
SPECIAL SENATE ELECTION
‘17 Candidates Special Election Result
Outgoing ‘16 Presidential
State Election
Incumbent Democrat Republican Turnout Dem. Rep. Other Result in State
Date
Luther Strange Doug Jones
Alabama Dec. 12 Roy Moore 1,348,720 50% 48% 2% Trump by 28%
(R)* (W)
SPECIAL HOUSE ELECTIONS
‘17-18 Candidates Special Election Results
Outgoing ‘16 Presidential
District Election
Incumbent Democrat Republican Turnout Dem. Rep. Other Result in District
Dates
Mike Pompeo April 11, James Ron Estes
Kansas 4th 122,594 46% 52% 2% Trump by 27%
(R) 2017 Thompson (W)
Montana Ryan Zinke May 25, Greg
Rob Quist 381,425 44% 50% 6% Trump by 20%
At-Large (R) 2017 Gianforte (W)
California Xavier Becerra June 6, Jimmy
-# 43,179 59% - - Clinton by 72%
34th (D) 2017 Gomez (W)
June 20, Karen Handel
Georgia 6th Tom Price (R) Jon Ossoff 260,316 48% 52% - Trump by 1%
2017 (W)
South Mick June 20, Archie Ralph
88,316 48% 51% 1% Trump by 18%
Carolina 5th Mulvaney (R) 2017 Parnell Norman (W)
Jason Chaffetz Nov. 7, John Curtis
Utah 3rd Kathie Allen 147,796 26% 58% 16% Trump by 23%@
(R) 2017 (W)
Pennsylvania Tim Murphy March 13, Conor Lamb
Rick Saccone 228,830 49.9% 49.5% 1% Trump by 20%
18th (R) 2018 (W)
Trent Franks April 24, Hiral Debbie Lesko
Arizona 8th 183,343 48% 52% - Trump by 21%
(R) 2018 Tipirneni (W)
Blake June 30, Michael
Texas 27th Eric Holquin 36,291 32% 55% 13% ^ Trump by 24%
Farenthold (R) 2018 Cloud (W)
Note: In the chart below, "(W)" indicates the winner of the special election. An asterisk (*) denotes that Luther Strange was initially
appointed to the Senate seat in Alabama held by Republican Jeff Sessions, who resigned in early 2017 to become U.S. attorney
general. Strange, however, lost the Republican Senate nomination to former Alabama Chief Justice Roy Moore, who then lost
to Democrat Doug Jones. A pound sign (#) indicates that the special election in the heavily Democratic California 34th District
pitted two Democrats against each other, with Jimmy Gomez defeating Robert Anh, 59% to 41% in the decisive round of voting.
In the Texas 27th, candidates from all parties ran together on a single ballot, which Republican Michael Cloud won in the first
round. The Democratic and Republican vote percentages reflect those of the front-runner in each party. The icon "^" indicates that
the "Other" vote percentage represents the total for the other Democratic and Republican candidates, as well as those that ran
as independents or third party entries. Third party candidates were not a significant factor in any of the 2017 special elections,
although in the Utah 3rd District, Jim Bennett - the son of former Republican Sen. Robert Bennett - ran on the ballot line of the
United Utah Party and received 9% of the vote. The 2016 presidential election margin in Alabama and all congressional districts
with special elections in 2017-18 measures the difference in vote percentage between the two major party candidates, with the
exception of the Utah 3rd District. There, the runner-up was independent Evan McMullin. The presidential victory margin in the
Utah district is denoted by the icon "@."
Sources: Returns for the 2017-18 special House and Senate elections are from the election web sites of states involved. All results
are official, with the exception of the special elections in the Arizona 8th and Texas 27th districts, where the returns are nearly
complete but unofficial. The 2016 presidential election margins by congressional district are from The Almanac of American
Politics 2018 (National Journal/Columbia Books & Information Services).

The Rhodes Cook Letter • July 2018 14

 The Changing Composition of the 115th Congress
In 2017, much of the upheaval in Congress and the governorships was a product of the Trump administration tapping
Republican ranks to fill key Cabinet and federal agency positions. In 2018, however, many of the changes have been
triggered by questionable sexual ethics by the politicians involved. The most recent example came in Missouri, where
Republican Eric Greitens resigned the governorship in early June under threat of impeachment. He was in hot water
for allegedly attempting to blackmail a mistress and improperly raising campaign funds for his 2016 gubernatorial
race from a charity donor list. A former Navy SEAL who had worked at one time with Mother Teresa, Greitens was
considered a rising star in the GOP. He won the Missouri governorship two years ago by nearly 6 percentage points.
That was well behind Trump's 19-point rout of Hillary Clinton in the "Show Me" state, but well above Sen. Roy Blunt's
modest 3-point reelection victory. Greitens has been succeeded by his lieutenant governor, Michael Parson.
HOUSE OF
SENATE
Date and Event REPRESENTATIVES
Dems. Reps. Vac. Dems. Reps. Inds.
2016 ELECTION (Nov. 4) 194 241 46 52 2
Jan. 23, 2017 - Rep. Mike Pompeo (R-Kan. 4) resigns to become
194 240 1
director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA).
Jan. 24, 2017 - Rep. Xavier Becerra (D-Calif. 34) resigns to
193 240 2
become California Attorney General.
Feb. 8, 2017 - Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.) resigns to become Attorney
General in the Trump administration. The following day, AL 46 52 2
Attorney General Luther Strange (R) is sworn in as his successor.
Feb. 10, 2017 - Rep. Tom Price (R-Ga. 6) resigns to become
193 239 3
secretary of health and human services.
Feb. 16, 2017 - Rep. Mick Mulvaney (R-S.C. 5) resigns to become
193 238 4
director of the Office of Management and Budget (O.M.B.).
March 1, 2017 - Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Mont. AL) resigns to become
193 237 5
secretary of the interior.
April 11, 2017 - Ron Estes (R) wins special election in Kansas
193 238 4
4th District.
May 25, 2017 - Greg Gianforte (R) wins special election in
193 239 3
Montana At-Large District.
June 6, 2017 - Jimmy Gomez (D) wins special election in
194 239 2
California 34th District.
June 20, 2017 - Karen Handel (R) wins special election in Georgia
6th District; Ralph Norman (R) wins special election in South 194 241
Carolina 5th District.
June 30, 2017 - Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-Utah 3) resigns and
194 240 1
becomes a contributor on Fox News.
Oct. 21, 2017 - Rep. Tim Murphy (R-Pa. 18) resigns after it was
disclosed that the anti-abotion congressman told a mistress to 194 239 2
terminate a possible pregnancy.
Nov. 7, 2017 - John Curtis (R) wins special election in Utah 3rd
194 240 1
District.
Dec. 5, 2017 - Rep. John Conyers (D-Mich. 13) resigns after
multiple women who served on his staff accuse him of sexual 193 240 2
harassment.
Dec. 8, 2017 - Rep. Trent Franks (R-Ariz. 8) resigns after it was
disclosed that he talked to multiple young women on his staff 193 239 3
about surrogacy.
Dec. 12, 2017 - Doug Jones (D) wins Alabama special Senate
47 51 2
election.
Jan. 2, 2018 – Sen. Al Franken (D-Minn.) resigns after a number
of women accuse him of inappropriately touching them. The
47 51 2
following day, Lt. Gov. Tina Smith (D-Minn.) is sworn in as his
successor.

The Rhodes Cook Letter • July 2018 15

 HOUSE OF
SENATE
Date and Event REPRESENTATIVES
Dems. Reps. Vac. Dems. Reps. Inds. Vac.
2016 ELECTION (Nov. 4) 194 241 46 52 2
Jan. 15, 2018 – Rep. Pat Tiberi (R-Ohio 12) resigns to become
193 238 4
president of the Ohio Business Roundtable.
March 13, 2018 - Conor Lamb (D) wins special election in
194 238 3
Pennsylvania 18th District.
March 16, 2018 - Rep. Louise Slaughter (D-N.Y. 25) dies at age 88
193 238 4
after suffering complications from a fall.
April 1, 2018 - Sen. Thad Cochran (R-Miss.) resigns at age 80 due
47 50 2 1
to failing health.
April 6, 2018 - Rep. Blake Farenthold (R-Texas 27) resigns as
House Ethics Committee has him in their sights for sexual
193 237 5
harassment and improper use of federal funds to pay a female
staffer he allegedly harassed.
April 9, 2018 - Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-Miss.) sworn in to fill
47 51 2
vacancy created by Sen. Thad Cochran's resignation.
April 23, 2018 - Rep. Jim Bridenstine (R-Okla. 1) resigns to
become administrator of the National Aeronautic and Space 193 236 6
Administration (NASA).
April 24, 2018 - Debbie Lesko (R) wins special election in Arizona
193 237 5
8th District.
April 27, 2018 - Rep. Pat Meehan (R-Pa. 7) resigns after reports
that he had paid a secret settlement to a member of his staff
193 236 6
who had accused him of harassment, drawing a House Ethics
Committee probe.
May 12, 2018 - Rep. Charlie Dent (R-Pa. 12) resigns in frustration
193 235 7
with the declining influence in Congress of centrists like himself.
June 30, 2018 - Michael Cloud (R) wins special election in Texas
193 236 6
27th District.

….. AND THE GOVERNORSHIPS

Dems. Reps. Inds.
2016 GENERAL ELECTION (Nov. 8) 16 33 1
Jan. 24, 2017 - Gov. Nikki Haley (R) resigns to become ambassador to the United Nations.
16 33 1
She is succeeded by Lt. Gov. Henry McMaster (R).
April 10, 2017 - Gov. Robert Bentley (R-Ala.) resigns under threat of impeachment for using
16 33 1
public funds to hide an affair with a former top aide. He is succeeded by Lt. Gov. Kay Ivey (R).
May 24, 2017 - Gov. Terry Branstad (R-Iowa) resigns to become ambassador to China. He is
16 33 1
succeeded by Lt. Gov. Kim Reynolds (R).
Aug. 3, 2017 - Gov. Jim Justice switches his party affiliation from Democratic to
15 34 1
Republican.
Nov. 7, 2017 - Phil Murphy (D) wins governorship in New Jersey, while Lt. Gov. Ralph
Northam (D) wins in Virginia. (Results produce a Democratic pick up of one 16 33 1
governorship, in New Jersey.)
Jan. 31, 2018 - Gov. Sam Brownback (R-Kan.) resigns to become ambassador at-large for
16 33 1
international religious freedom. He is succeeded by Lt. Gov. Jeff Colyer (R).
June 1, 2018 - Gov. Eric Greitens (R-Mo,) resigns under threat of impeachment, while
charges swirl that he sought to blackmail a mistress and improperly used a veterans charity 16 33 1
donor list to raise campaign funds. He is succeeded by Lt. Gov. Michael Parson (R).
Note: “Vac.” stands for Vacancy. Changes are as of July 31, 2018.

The Rhodes Cook Letter • July 2018 16

 What's Up in 2018
Republican Democrat Independent
* States with an open Gubernatorial or Senate race

2 States with two Senate races

Governorships Senate Seats
up in 2018 up in 2018

* * * 2

** ** * ** *
*
* * ** * 2 *
*
The 2018 midterm elections are arguably the most consequential since 1994, when Republicans won both houses of Congress
in the same election for the first time in 42 years. This time it is the Republicans who are on the spot. The midterms are
widely viewed as the first nationwide referendum on the controversial presidency of Donald Trump, and will determine the
strength of the Democratic resistance in the years that immediately follow. In addition, gubernatorial and state legislative races
in 2018 will play a significant role in many states in determining partisan control of the redistricting process to take place
in the wake of the 2020 census. Altogether, more than one-third of all Senate seats are up this year, nearly three-fourths of
the governorships, and all of the seats in the House of Representatives. Democrats are on the defensive in the Senate (where
the vast majority of seats up are theirs), while the situation is reversed at the state level (where Republicans dominate the
governorships and state legislatures).
Seats Up in '18
‘16 Presidential House Seats
Governors Senators
Vote Dem. Rep.
State of Play Clinton by 2% 193 236 36 (26 R, 9 D, 1 Ind.) 35 (24 D, 9 R, 2 Inds.)
NORTHEAST
Connecticut Clinton by 14% 5 Dan Malloy (D) - OPEN Chris Murphy (D)
Delaware Clinton by 11% 1 Tom Carper (D)
Maine Clinton by 3% 1 1 Paul LePage (R) - OPEN Angus King (Ind.)
Maryland Clinton by 26% 7 1 Larry Hogan (R) Ben Cardin (D)
Massachusetts Clinton by 27% 9 Charles Baker (R) Elizabeth Warren (D)
New Hampshire Clinton by 0.3% 2 Chris Sununu (R)
New Jersey Clinton by 14% 7 5 Robert Menendez (D)
New York Clinton by 22% 17 9 Andrew Cuomo (D) Kirsten Gillibrand (D)
Pennsylvania Trump by 0.7% 6 10 Thomas Wolf (D) Bob Casey (D)
Rhode Island Clinton by 16% 2 Gina Raimondo (D) Sheldon Whitehouse (D)
Vermont Clinton by 26% 1 Phil Scott (R) Bernie Sanders (Ind.)
West Virginia Trump by 42% 3 Joe Manchin (D)
58 29
MIDWEST
Illinois Clinton by 17% 11 7 Bruce Rauner (R)
Indiana Trump by 19% 2 7 Joe Donnelly (D)
Iowa Trump by 9% 1 3 Kim Reynolds (R)@
Kansas Trump by 21% 4 Jeff Colyer (R)@
Michigan Trump by 0.2% 4 9 Rick Snyder (R) - OPEN Debbie Stabenow (D)

The Rhodes Cook Letter • July 2018 17

 Seats Up in '18
‘16 Presidential House Seats
Governors Senators
Vote Dem. Rep.
State of Play Clinton by 2% 193 236 36 (26 R, 9 D, 1 Ind.) 35 (24 D, 9 R, 2 Inds.)
MIDWEST Cont.
Amy Klobuchar (D)/
Minnesota Clinton by 2% 5 3 Mark Dayton (D) - OPEN
Tina Smith (D)@
Missouri Trump by 19% 2 6 Claire McCaskill (D)
Nebraska Trump by 25% 3 Pete Ricketts (R) Deb Fischer (R)
North Dakota Trump by 36% 1 Heidi Heitkamp (D)
Ohio Trump by 8% 4 11 John Kasich (R) - OPEN Sherrod Brown (D)
South Dakota Trump by 30% 1 Dennis Daugaard (R) - OPEN
Wisconsin Trump by 0.7% 3 5 Scott Walker (R) Tammy Baldwin (D)
32 60
SOUTH
Alabama Trump by 28% 1 6 Kay Ivey (R)@
Arkansas Trump by 27% 4 Asa Hutchinson (R)
Florida Trump by 1% 11 16 Rick Scott (R) - OPEN Bill Nelson (D)
Georgia Trump by 5% 4 10 Nathan Deal (R) - OPEN
Kentucky Trump by 30% 1 5
Louisiana Trump by 20% 1 5
Roger Wicker (R)/
Mississippi Trump by 18% 1 3
Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)@
North Carolina Trump by 4% 3 10
Oklahoma Trump by 36% 4 Mary Fallin (R) - OPEN
South Carolina Trump by 14% 1 6 Henry McMaster (R)@
Tennessee Trump by 26% 2 7 Bill Haslam (R) - OPEN Bob Corker (R) - OPEN
Texas Trump by 9% 11 25 Greg Abbott (R) Ted Cruz (R)
Virginia Clinton by 5% 4 7 Tim Kaine (D)
40 108
WEST
Alaska Trump by 15% 1 Bill Walker (Ind.)
Arizona Trump by 4% 4 5 Doug Ducey (R) Jeff Flake (R) - OPEN
California Clinton by 30% 39 14 Jerry Brown (D) - OPEN Dianne Feinstein (D)
Colorado Clinton by 5% 3 4 John Hickenlooper (D) - OPEN
Hawaii Clinton by 32% 2 David Ige (D) Mazie Hironi (D)
Idaho Trump by 32% 2 C.L. “Butch” Otter (R) - OPEN
Montana Trump by 20% 1 Jon Tester (D)
Nevada Clinton by 2% 3 1 Brian Sandoval (R) - OPEN Dean Heller (R)
New Mexico Clinton by 8% 2 1 Susana Martinez (R) - OPEN Martin Heinrich (D)
Oregon Clinton by 11% 4 1 Kate Brown (D)
Utah Trump by 18% 4 Orrin Hatch (R) - OPEN
Washington Clinton by 16% 6 4 Maria Cantwell (D)
Wyoming Trump by 46% 1 Matt Mead (R) - OPEN John Barrasso (R)
63 39
Sources: The partisan number of House seats in each state is as of July 31, 2018, and reflects six vacancies. Four are formerly
Republican seats: two in Pennsylvania, and one each in Ohio and Oklahoma. Two are formerly Democratic seats, one in
Michigan and one in New York. The icon "@" indicates that the present officeholder assumed his or her seat after 2016.

The Rhodes Cook Letter • July 2018 18