Safal Niveshak Stock Analysis Excel (Ver. 4.

www.safalniveshak.com

HOW TO USE THIS SPREADSHEET

Step 1 - This spreadsheet works only on Screener.in. The first step is to create a free account here - https://www.screener.in/re
Step 2 - After creating your account, while you are logged in to Screener.in website, visit this page - https://www.screener.in/ex
Step 3 - Visit the home page of Screener.in and choose a company of your choice. Once you do that, you will see details of you
financial statement table called "Quarterly Results" and click on "View Consolidated". Now, all data you see for this company wi

Step 4 - Scroll back to the top of the page, and you will see a button "Export to Excel" on the right side. Click the button and the
the exact format as "Safal Niveshak's Stock Analysis Excel Ver. 4.0". Now onwards, any excel you export for any company on S
Step 5 - Email me your love and testimonial for helping you with this excel. :-)

IMPORTANT INSTRUCTIONS
1. Ensure that the company whose data you are downloading has numbers at least starting from FY08 (March 2008). This is be
from, say, FY10, you will see incorrect data for FY08 and FY09 (which will be of Hero Motocorp on whose financials I have crea

2. All financial data of your chosen company will be automatically updated in the sheet you download, except "Cash and Bank"
figures, which you must update manually from the company's annual reports. Don’t forget to make these changes as these num
3. You may update the sheet and add your own analysis, formulae etc. and then upload again to Screener.in site using the Step
"Data Sheet" because this will cause errors in your future downloads.
4. DON’T touch any cell except the black ones, where you are required to update the numbers manually from Annual Reports (j
the growth assumptions etc.
4. I have added Comments and Instructions wherever necessary so as to explain the concepts. Read those carefully before wo
5. This sheet is not a replacement of the work required to read annual reports as part of the analysis process. So please do tha
some discrepancy in numbers (though rare), but you will know this only when you read annual reports.
6. I could not find a bug/errors in this spreadsheet, but if you notice some, please email me at - vishal@safalniveshak.com - and
7. I will keep on updating the sheet from time to time and will update the same on the website. I invite you to share your feedba
together.
8. This excel won't work for banking and financial services companies.

Note: All data is sourced from Screener.in

 Safal Niveshak Stock Warning! Excel can be a wonder
a deadly weapon if you wish to
Analysis Excel (Ver. 4.0) careful of what you are getting
garbage out. And if you need the
a given stock, you mu
www.safalniveshak.com
Basic Company Details
Parameters Details
Company BAJAJ AUTO LTD
Current Stock Price (Rs) 3,008 Remember! Focus on decisions
Face Value (Rs) 10.0 evidence
No. of Shares (Crore) 28.9
Market Capitalization (Rs Crore) 87,046

Key Financials - Trend

Parameters Details
Sales Growth (9-Year CAGR) 12.9% Please! It's your money. Please
cause you to lose it all! I've desi
Profit Before Tax Growth (9-Year CAGR) 24.8% but you alone are responsible f
Net Profit Growth (8-Year CAGR) 25.8% ever after! I am not a sadist w
Average Debt/Equity (5-Years, x) 0.0 analyzing companies on your
instead of a map, for you can c
Average Return on Equity (5-Years) 25.6%
A
Average P/E (5-Years, x) 19.4
Latest P/E (x) 18.5
 Excel can be a wonderful tool to analyze the past. But it can be
y weapon if you wish to use it to predict the future! So be very
of what you are getting into. Here, garbage in will always equal
out. And if you need the excel to tell you what you must do with
a given stock, you must not use this tool anyways.

er! Focus on decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming

evidence. Calculate. Pray!

It's your money. Please don't blame me if results of this excel

u to lose it all! I've designed this excel to aid your own thinking,
alone are responsible for your actions. I want to live peacefully
fter! I am not a sadist who wants you to do the hard work by
ng companies on your own. But I'd rather give you a compass
of a map, for you can confuse map with territory and lose it all.
All the best!
 Buffett Checklist - Read, Remember, Follow!
Source - Buffettology by Mary Buffett & David Clark
Parameter

Consumer monopoly or commodity?

Understand how business works

Is the company conservatively financed?

Are earnings strong and do they show an

upward trend?

Does the company stick with what it

knows?

Has the company been buying back its

shares?

Have retained earnings been invested

well?

Is the company’s return on equity above

average?

Is the company free to adjust prices to

inflation?
Does the company need to constantly
reinvest in capital?

Conclusion

Never Forget
 Buffett Checklist - Read, Remember, Follow!
Source - Buffettology by Mary Buffett & David Clark
Explanation

Seek out companies that have no or less competition, either due to a patent or brand name or similar intangible that
makes the product unique. Such companies will typically have high gross and operating profit margins because of their
unique niche. However, don't just go on margins as high margins may simply highlight companies within industries with
traditionally high margins. Thus, look for companies with gross, operating and net profit margins above industry norms.
Also look for strong growth in earnings and high return on equity in the past.

Try to invest in industries where you possess some specialized knowledge (where you work) or can more effectively
judge a company, its industry, and its competitive environment (simple products you consume). While it is difficult to
construct a quantitative filter, you should be able to identify areas of interest. You should "only" consider analyzing
those companies that operate in areas that you can clearly grasp - your circle of competence. Of course you can
increase the size of the circle, but only over time by learning about new industries. More important than the size of the
circle is to know its boundaries.

Seeks out companies with conservative financing, which equates to a simple, safe balance sheet. Such companies
tend to have strong cash flows, with little need for long-term debt. Look for low debt to equity or low debt-burden ratios.
Also seek companies that have history of consistently generating positive free cash flows.

Rising earnings serve as a good catalyst for stock prices. So seek companies with strong, consistent, and expanding
earnings (profits). Seek companies with 5/10 year earnings per share growth greater than 25% (along with safe
balance sheets). To help indicate that earnings growth is still strong, look for companies where the last 3-years
earnings growth rate is higher than the last 10-years growth rate. More important than the rate of growth is the
consistency in such growth. So exclude companies with volatile earnings growth in the past, even if the "average"
growth has been high.

Like you should stock to your circle of competence, a company should invest its capital only in those businesses within
its circle of competence. This is a difficult factor to screen for on a quantitative level. Before investing in a company,
look at the company’s past pattern of acquisitions and new directions. They should fit within the primary range of
operations for the firm. Be cautious of companies that have been very aggressive in acquisitions in the past.

Buffett prefers that firms reinvest their earnings within the company, provided that profitable opportunities exist. When
companies have excess cash flow, Buffett favours shareholder-enhancing maneuvers such as share buybacks. While
we do not screen for this factor, a follow-up examination of a company would reveal if it has a share buyback plan in
place.

Seek companies where earnings have risen as retained earnings (earnings after paying dividends) have been
employed profitably. A great way to screen for such companies is by looking at those that have had consistent
earnings and strong return on equity in the past.

Consider it a positive sign when a company is able to earn above-average (better than competitors) returns on equity
without employing much debt. Average return on equity for Indian companies over the last 10 years is approximately
16%. Thus, seek companies that earn at least this much (16%) or more than this. Again, consistency is the key here.

That's what is called "pricing power". Companies with moat (as seen from other screening metrics as suggested above
(like high ROE, high grow margins, low debt etc.) are able to adjust prices to inflation without the risk of losing
significant volume sales.
Companies that consistently need capital to grow their sales and profits are like bank savings account, and thus bad
for an investor's long term portfolio. Seek companies that don't need high capital investments consistently. Retained
earnings must first go toward maintaining current operations at competitive levels, so the lower the amount needed to
maintain current operations, the better. Here, more than just an absolute assessment, a comparison against
competitors will help a lot. Seek companies that consistently generate positive and rising free cash flows.

Sensible investing is always about using “folly and discipline” - the discipline to identify excellent businesses, and wait
for the folly of the market to drive down the value of these businesses to attractive levels. You will have little trouble
understanding this philosophy. However, its successful implementation is dependent upon your dedication to learn and
follow the principles, and apply them to pick stocks successfully.

Focus on decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming evidence.

 Balance Sheet
BAJAJ AUTO LTD
Rs Cr Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18
Equity Share Capital 145 145 289 289 289 289 289 289 289 289
Reserves 1,668 2,572 4,518 5,792 7,776 9,878 10,806 13,731 17,567 20,136
Borrowings 1,595 1,361 347 150 116 59 112 118 120 121
Other Liabilities 2,623 3,056 4,024 4,933 4,495 5,228 4,895 3,230 3,830 4,798
Total 6,031 7,134 9,179 11,165 12,676 15,454 16,103 17,368 21,806 25,344

Net Block 1,914 1,812 1,855 1,920 2,355 2,660 2,448 2,026 2,002 1,878
Capital Work in Progress 22 42 70 42 294 144 255 52 42 56
Investments 1,423 3,445 4,211 4,473 6,059 8,448 8,985 11,067 15,477 18,895
Other Assets 2,672 1,835 3,043 4,731 3,968 4,203 4,415 4,223 4,285 4,515
Total 6,031 7,134 9,179 11,165 12,676 15,454 16,103 17,368 21,806 25,344

Working Capital 49 -1,221 -981 -202 -527 -1,025 -481 993 455 -283
Debtors 281 239 339 402 734 796 717 718 953 1,492
Inventory 372 458 576 704 644 641 814 719 728 743
Cash & Bank** 4,735 3,367 3,190 3,393 2,605 3,546 4,739 5,829
** Manually enter this number; Convert to Rs Crore if not already done in the Annual Reports; Use Cash+Bank+Current Investments from Consolidated Balance Sheet in Annual Reports

Debtor Days 12 8 8 7 13 14 12 12 16 22
Inventory Turnover 23 25 29 28 31 31 27 31 30 34
Fixed Asset Turnover 4.4 6.4 8.9 10.2 8.5 7.6 8.8 11.2 10.9 13.4
Debt/Equity 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Return on Equity 29% 58% 71% 48% 37% 31% 25% 29% 23% 21%
Return on Capital Employed 24% 56% 86% 64% 52% 45% 36% 40% 31% 29%
 Profit & Loss Account / Income Statement
BAJAJ AUTO LTD
Rs Cr Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Trailing
Sales 8,446 11,543 16,429 19,595 20,042 20,158 21,614 22,587 21,767 25,165 29,614
% Growth YOY 37% 42% 19% 2% 1% 7% 4% -4% 16%
Expenses 7,811 9,576 13,287 15,963 16,456 16,068 17,742 17,816 17,365 20,410 24,495
Material Cost (% of Sales) 76% 71% 72% 73% 72% 69% 69% 66% 67% 69% Check for wide fluctuations in key
Power and Fuel 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% expense items. For manufacturing
Other Mfr. Exp 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% firms, check their material costs etc. For
Employee Cost 6% 5% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 5% 4% services firms, look at employee costs.
Selling and Admin Cost 6% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 4% 3% 3%
Operating Profit 635 1,967 3,142 3,631 3,586 4,090 3,872 4,771 4,401 4,755 5,119
Operating Profit Margin 8% 17% 19% 19% 18% 20% 18% 21% 20% 19% 17%
Other Income 324 459 1,406 502 797 682 425 1,199 1,473 1,471 1,845
Other Income as % of Sales 3.8% 4.0% 8.6% 2.6% 4.0% 3.4% 2.0% 5.3% 6.8% 5.8% 6.2%
Depreciation 131 137 124 147 168 181 267 307 307 315 293
Interest 22 7 2 23 1 1 6 1 1 1 4
Interest Coverage(Times) 38 339 1,851 175 3,542 5,599 621 5,393 3,976 4,512 1,486
Profit before tax (PBT) 807 2,282 4,421 3,964 4,214 4,590 4,023 5,662 5,565 5,909 6,666
% Growth YOY 183% 94% -10% 6% 9% -12% 41% -2% 6%
PBT Margin 10% 20% 27% 20% 21% 23% 19% 25% 26% 23% 23%
Tax 286 701 1,006 1,020 1,229 1,420 1,271 1,618 1,508 1,714 1,972
Net profit 521 1,581 3,415 2,944 2,985 3,170 2,752 4,044 4,057 4,195 4,695
% Growth YOY 204% 116% -14% 1% 6% -13% 47% 0% 3%
Net Profit Margin 6% 14% 21% 15% 15% 16% 13% 18% 19% 17% 16%
EPS 18.0 54.6 118.0 101.7 103.2 109.5 95.1 139.8 140.2 145.0 162.2
% Growth YOY 204% 116% -14% 1% 6% -13% 47% 0% 3%
Price to earning 17.6 18.9 12.3 16.2 17.1 18.4 21.4 17.7 20.2 19.5 18.5
Price 318 1,034 1,448 1,651 1,765 2,013 2,035 2,474 2,833 2,833 3,008
Dividend Payout 59.4% 36.2% 33.5% 42.7% 41.6% 42.8% 47.8% 39.2% 39.0% 41.2%
Market Cap 9,191 29,918 41,887 47,761 51,069 58,239 58,872 71,599 81,984 81,981
Retained Earnings 211 1,008 2,271 1,687 1,744 1,813 1,436 2,459 2,474 2,469
Buffett's $1 Test 4.1

TRENDS: 10 YEARS 7 YEARS 5 YEARS 3 YEARS

Sales Growth 12.9% 6.3% 4.7% 5.2%
PBT Growth 24.8% 4.2% 7.0% 13.7%
PBT Margin 21.3% 22.4% 23.1% 24.7%
Price to Earning 17.9 18.7 19.4 19.2

Check for long term vs short term trends here. Check if the growth over
past 3 or 5 years has slowed down / improved compared to long term (7
to 10 years) growth numbers.
 Cash Flow Statement
BAJAJ AUTO LTD
Rs Cr Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Total
Cash from Operating Activity (CFO) 329 2,564 1,639 3,246 2,218 3,502 2,114 3,690 3,267 4,328 26,897
% Growth YoY 680% -36% 98% -32% 58% -40% 75% -11% 32%
Cash from Investing Activity -173 -1,935 -627 -850 -1,394 -2,072 -380 -68 -3,610 -1,954 -13,063
Cash from Financing Activity -84 -664 -871 -1,462 -1,445 -1,496 -1,644 -3,384 -190 -1,885 -13,126
Net Cash Flow 71 -35 141 934 -621 -66 90 238 -532 488 708
CFO/Sales 4% 22% 10% 17% 11% 17% 10% 16% 15% 17%
CFO/Net Profit 63% 162% 48% 110% 74% 110% 77% 91% 81% 103%
Capex** 315 212 364 565 607 937 1,156 1,638 1,238 824
FCF 14 2,353 1,275 2,681 1,611 2,565 958 2,052 2,029 3,504 19,041
Average FCF (3 Years) 2,528
FCF Growth YoY 17198% -46% 110% -40% 59% -63% 114% -1% 73%
FCF/Sales 0% 20% 8% 14% 8% 13% 4% 9% 9% 14%
FCF/Net Profit 3% 147% 37% 88% 51% 76% 32% 51% 50% 83%

** Manually enter this number;

Convert to Rs Crore if not already
done in the Annual Reports; Use
"Capital expenditure" number
shown under "Cash Flow from
Investing Activities" segment of
Consolidated Cash Flow Statement
available in the Annual Reports
 Key Ratios
BAJAJ AUTO LTD
Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17
Sales Growth 36.7% 42.3% 19.3% 2.3% 0.6% 7.2% 4.5% -3.6%
PBT Growth 182.8% 93.7% -10.4% 6.3% 8.9% -12.4% 40.7% -1.7%
Net Profit Growth 203.6% 116.0% -13.8% 1.4% 6.2% -13.2% 47.0% 0.3%
Dividend Growth 81.8% 100.0% 12.5% 0.0% 11.1% 0.0% 10.0% 0.0%
Operating Cash Flow Growth 680.1% -36.1% 98.0% -31.7% 57.9% -39.6% 74.6% -11.5%
Free Cash Flow Growth ### -45.8% 110.3% -39.9% 59.2% -62.7% 114.2% -1.1%

Operating Margin 7.5% 17.0% 19.1% 18.5% 17.9% 20.3% 17.9% 21.1% 20.2%
PBT Margin 9.6% 19.8% 26.9% 20.2% 21.0% 22.8% 18.6% 25.1% 25.6%
Net Margin 6.2% 13.7% 20.8% 15.0% 14.9% 15.7% 12.7% 17.9% 18.6%

Debtor Days 12.1 7.5 7.5 7.5 13.4 14.4 12.1 11.6 16.0
Inventory Turnover 22.7 25.2 28.5 27.8 31.1 31.4 26.5 31.4 29.9
Fixed Asset Turnover 4.4 6.4 8.9 10.2 8.5 7.6 8.8 11.2 10.9
Debt/Equity 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Debt/Assets 26.5% 19.1% 3.8% 1.3% 0.9% 0.4% 0.7% 0.7% 0.5%
Interest Coverage (Times) 37.9 339.1 ### 174.9 ### ### 620.9 ### ###
Return on Equity 28.7% 58.2% 71.0% 48.4% 37.0% 31.2% 24.8% 28.8% 22.7%
Return on Capital Employed 24.3% 56.1% 85.8% 64.0% 51.5% 44.9% 36.0% 40.1% 31.0%
Free Cash Flow (Rs Cr) 14 2,353 1,275 2,681 1,611 2,565 958 2,052 2,029
Mar/18
15.6%
6.2%
3.4%
9.1%
32.5%
72.6%

18.9%
23.5%
16.7%

21.6
33.9
13.4
0.0
0.5%
###
20.5%
28.8%
3,504
What to look for?
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher isn't always better, esp. when the company is generating high ROE, which means the management is allocating capital
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency

Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry

Lower/reducing is better. Compare with industry peer(s)

Higher/rising is better. Compare with industry peer(s)
Higher/rising is better. Compare with industry peer(s)
Nil / lower than 0.5 / reducing is better
Lower is better
Look for number > 5
Look for number > 20%. Also check if the debt is low/nil. Compare with industry peer(s)
Look for number > 20%. Also check if the debt is low/nil. Compare with industry peer(s)
Look for positive and rising numbers. If the company consistently generates negative FCF over say 10 years, avoid it.
30% Profit Margin Capital Alloc
100%
Check for a rising trend and
25% 80% Numbers > 20% long term a
has zero/marginal debt. Com
20%
60%
15%
40%
10%
5% Check for a rising trend and/or consistency. 20%
Compare with a close competitor
0% 0%
Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17 Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan

Operating Margin PBT Margin

Net Margin ROE

30,000
Revenue Revenue and Pro
250%
Check for a rising trend. Check for a ris
25,000 Compare grow
200%
20,000 150%
15,000 100%
10,000 50%
5,000 0%
Jan/10 Jan/12
- -50%
Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17 Revenue Growth
Net Profit Grow

7,000 Profit Over Time Operating and

5,000 Check
Check for a rising trend. for positive numbe
6,000 which are rising over tim
4,000
5,000
4,000 3,000
3,000 2,000
2,000
1,000
1,000
- -
Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17 Jan/09 Jan/11 Ja

PBT Net Profit Operating Cash Flo

Data for Charts (Please don't touch any number below)
Margins
Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17
Operating Margin 8% 17% 19% 19% 18% 20% 18% 21% 20%
PBT Margin 10% 20% 27% 20% 21% 23% 19% 25% 26%
Net Margin 6% 14% 21% 15% 15% 16% 13% 18% 19%

Management Effectiveness
Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17
ROE 29% 58% 71% 48% 37% 31% 25% 29% 23%
ROCE 24% 56% 86% 64% 52% 45% 36% 40% 31%

Revenue & Profit Growth

Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18
Revenue Growth 37% 42% 19% 2% 1% 7% 4% -4% 16%
PBT Growth 183% 94% -10% 6% 9% -12% 41% -2% 6%
Net Profit Growth 204% 116% -14% 1% 6% -13% 47% 0% 3%

Revenue & Profit

Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17
Revenue 8,446 11,543 16,429 19,595 20,042 20,158 21,614 22,587 21,767
PBT 807 2,282 4,421 3,964 4,214 4,590 4,023 5,662 5,565
Net Profit 521 1,581 3,415 2,944 2,985 3,170 2,752 4,044 4,057

Cash Flows
Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17
Operating Cash Flow 329 2,564 1,639 3,246 2,218 3,502 2,114 3,690 3,267
Free Cash Flow 14 2,353 1,275 2,681 1,611 2,565 958 2,052 2,029
%
Capital Allocation Quality
Check for a rising trend and/or consistency.
Numbers > 20% long term are good. Also check if the company
% has zero/marginal debt. Compare with a close competitor Note: Please ignore the dates
% on the X-axis. The figures are
for/as on the year ending date,
% which for most Indian
companies would be 31st
% March of that year

%
Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17

ROE ROCE

% Revenue and Profit Growth (YoY)

Check for a rising trend and/or low volatility.
Compare growth rates with a close competitor.
%

%
Jan/10 Jan/12 Jan/14 Jan/16 Jan/18
%
Revenue Growth PBT Growth
Net Profit Growth

Operating and Free Cash Flow

0 Check for positive numbers and
which are rising over time.
0
0
0
0
-
Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17

Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow

Mar/18
19%
23%
17%

Mar/18
21%
29%

Mar/18
25,165
5,909
4,195

Mar/18
4,328
3,504
 Common Size P&L
Rs Cr Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Sales 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Raw Material Cost 76% 71% 72% 73% 72% 69% 69% 66% 67% 69%
Change in Inventory 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Power and Fuel 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0%
Other Mfr. Exp 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2%
Employee Cost 6% 5% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 5% 4%
Selling and Admin Cost 6% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 4% 3% 3%
Other Expenses 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 2% 2%
Operating Profit 8% 16% 18% 18% 18% 20% 17% 22% 20% 19%
Other Income 4% 4% 9% 3% 4% 3% 2% 5% 7% 6%
Depreciation 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Interest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Profit Before Tax 10% 20% 27% 20% 21% 23% 19% 25% 26% 24%
Tax 3% 6% 6% 5% 6% 7% 6% 7% 7% 7%
Net Profit 6% 14% 21% 16% 16% 17% 14% 18% 19% 17%
Dividend Amount 4% 5% 7% 7% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7%

Common Size Balance Sheet

Rs Cr Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Equity Share Capital 2% 2% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1%
Reserves 28% 36% 49% 52% 61% 64% 67% 79% 81% 79%
Borrowings 26% 19% 4% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 0%
Other Liabilities 43% 43% 44% 44% 35% 34% 30% 19% 18% 19%
Total Liabilities 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Net Block 32% 25% 20% 17% 19% 17% 15% 12% 9% 7%
Capital Work in Progress 0% 1% 1% 0% 2% 1% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Investments 24% 48% 46% 40% 48% 55% 56% 64% 71% 75%
Other Assets 44% 26% 33% 42% 31% 27% 27% 24% 20% 18%
Total Assets 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Receivables 5% 3% 4% 4% 6% 5% 4% 4% 4% 6%
Inventory 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 4% 5% 4% 3% 3%
Cash & Bank 2% 2% 3% 15% 4% 3% 4% 5% 1% 3%
 A common-size financial statement is displays line
items as a percentage of one selected or common
figure. Creating common-size financial statements
makes it easier to analyze a company over time and
compare it with its peers. Using common-size
financial statements helps investors spot trends that
a raw financial statement may not uncover.
 Dhandho Intrinsic Value Calculation
Read the book - The Dhandho Investor by Mohnish Pabrai

BAJAJ AUTO LTD BAJAJ AUTO LTD

Dhandho IV - Lower Range Dhandho IV - Higher Range
Year FCF (Rs Cr) PV of FCF (Rs Cr) Assumed FCF Growth Year
0 Excess Cash (Latest) 5,829 Year 1-3 15% 0 Excess Cash (Latest)
1 FY18 2,908 2,596 Year 4-6 10% 1 FY18
2 FY19 3,344 2,666 Year 7-10 5% 2 FY19
3 FY20 3,845 2,737 Discount Rate 12% 3 FY20
4 FY21 4,230 2,688 4 FY21
5 FY22 4,653 2,640 Last 5-Years' CAGR 5 FY22
6 FY23 5,118 2,593 Sales 5% 6 FY23
7 FY24 5,374 2,431 PBT 7% 7 FY24
8 FY25 5,643 2,279 FCF 17% 8 FY25
9 FY26 5,925 2,137 9 FY26
10 FY27 6,221 2,003 10 FY27
10 62,210 20,030 10
Intrinsic Value 50,627 Intrinsic Value
Current Mkt. Cap. 87,046 Current Mkt. Cap.
Premium/(Discount) to IV 72% Premium/(Discount) to IV

Note: See explanation of this model here

P.S. In case of companies earning negative FCF, where this model will not work, you must use a normalized positive FCF as
starting number. This number is your assumption of FCF the business will earn in a normal year, without capex. Check the his
this business while arriving at your assumption, and use your judgment wisely without twisting the model to fit your version of
Calculation
by Mohnish Pabrai

BAJAJ AUTO LTD

Dhandho IV - Higher Range
FCF (Rs Cr) PV of FCF (Rs Cr) Assumed FCF Growth
Excess Cash (Latest) 5,829 Year 1-3 20%
3,034 2,709 Year 4-6 15%
3,641 2,902 Year 7-10 10%
4,369 3,110 Discount Rate 12%
5,024 3,193
5,778 3,279
6,645 3,366
7,309 3,306
8,040 3,247
8,844 3,189
9,728 3,132
145,924 46,984
Intrinsic Value 84,246
Current Mkt. Cap. 87,046
Premium/(Discount) to IV 3%

ust use a normalized positive FCF as the

al year, without capex. Check the history of
sting the model to fit your version of reality.
 Ben Graham Formula (Low Range) Ben Graham Formula (High Range)
Company Name BAJAJ AUTO LTD Company Name
Year Ended Mar/18 Year Ended

Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore) 3,643.5 Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore)
PE Ratio at 0% Growth 8.5 PE Ratio at 0% Growth
Long-Term Growth Rate 3.5 Long-Term Growth Rate

Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore) 56,622 Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore)
Current Market Cap (Rs Crore) 87,046 Current Market Cap (Rs Crore)

EXPLANATION
Ben Graham's Original Formula: Value = EPS x (8.5 + 2G)
Here, EPS is the trailing 12 month EPS, 8.5 is the P/E ratio of a stock with 0% growth and g is the growth rate for the next 7-10

Ben Graham's Revised Formula: Value = [EPS x (8.5 + 2G) x 4.4] / Y

Here, 4.4 is what Graham determined to be his minimum required rate of return. At the time of around 1962 when Graham was

Note: I have used Graham's original formula in the above calculations

m Formula (High Range)
BAJAJ AUTO LTD
Mar/18

3,643.5
8.5
7.0

82,274
87,046

g is the growth rate for the next 7-10 years

e of around 1962 when Graham was publicizing his works, the risk free interest rate was 4.4% but to adjust to the present, we divide this nu
e present, we divide this number by today’s AAA corporate bond rate, represented by Y in the formula above.
 Dicounted Cash Flow Valuation
BAJAJ AUTO LTD

Initial Cash Flow (Rs Cr) 2,528 57,555

87,046
Years 1-5 6-10 66%
FCF Growth Rate 15% 12%
Discount Rate 12%
Terminal Growth Rate 2%

Net Debt Level (Rs Cr) (5,708)

Year FCF Growth Present Value

1 2,908 15% 2,596
2 3,344 15% 2,666
3 3,845 15% 2,737
4 4,422 15% 2,810
5 5,085 15% 2,886
6 5,696 12% 2,886
7 6,379 12% 2,886
8 7,144 12% 2,886
9 8,002 12% 2,886
10 8,962 12% 2,886

Final Calculations
Terminal Year 9,141
PV of Year 1-10 Cash Flows 28,122
Terminal Value 29,433
Total PV of Cash Flows 57,555
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 87,046

Note: See explanation of DCF here

Valuation

DCF Value (As calculated in cell B29)

Current Market Cap
DCF as % of Current Mkt Cap
 Expected Returns Model
BAJAJ AUTO LTD
Particulars Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15
Net Profit (Rs Crore) 536 1,597 3,455 3,049 3,133 3,380 3,026
Net Profit Margin 6% 14% 21% 16% 16% 17% 14%
Return on Equity 29% 58% 71% 48% 37% 31% 25%

Calculations (Enter values only in black cells)

Estimated CAGR in Net Profit over next 10 years 12%
Estimated Net Profit after 10 years (Rs Cr) 13,103
Current P/E (x) 20.6
Exit P/E in the 10th year from now (x, Estimated) 20.0
Esti. Market Cap (10th year from now; Rs Cr) 262,068
Cost of Capital/Discount Rate 12%
Discounted Value (Rs Cr) 84,379
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 87,046

Note: See explanation of this model here

el
Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 CAGR (9-Yr) CAGR (5-Yr)
4,061 4,079 4,219 26% 6%
18% 19% 17%
29% 23% 21%
 Intrinsic Value Range
BAJAJ AUTO LTD
Lower Higher Remember! Give importance to a stock's valuations / fair v
Dhandho 50,627 84,246 only "after" you have answered in "Yes" to these two quest
Ben Graham 56,622 82,274 (1) Is this business simple to be understood? and (2) Ca
DCF 57,555 understand this business?
Expected Return 84,379
Don't try to quantify everything. In stock research, the less
Current Market Cap. 87,046 mathematical you are, the more simple, sensible, and usefu
be your analysis and results. Great analysis is generally "b
of-the-envelope".
Explanation: Considering the above
range, we can say that Hero Moto's IV Also, your calculated "fair value" will be proven wrong in
range is between Rs 55,000 crore to Rs future, so don't invest your savings just because you fall in
95,000 crore. It's a big range, but that's with it. Don't look for perfection. It is overrated. Focus o
fine (who is looking for precision?). Now, decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming eviden
if the current market cap is within this IV
range, it makes the stock
reasonably/attractively priced. If the
current market cap is higher then the
higher value of the range, it makes it
overpriced. But remember, these are just
numbers!
 importance to a stock's valuations / fair value
ave answered in "Yes" to these two questions -
ness simple to be understood? and (2) Can I
understand this business?

fy everything. In stock research, the less non-

are, the more simple, sensible, and useful will
and results. Great analysis is generally "back-
of-the-envelope".

lated "fair value" will be proven wrong in the

vest your savings just because you fall in love
ook for perfection. It is overrated. Focus on
outcomes. Look for disconfirming evidence.
BAJAJ AUTO LTD
SCREENER.IN
Narration Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18
Sales 6,055 5,067 4,897 5,442 6,580 6,388 6,773 7,419 8,012 7,409
% Growth YOY 9% 26% 38% 36% 22% 16%
Expenses 4,760 4,023 3,992 4,504 5,282 5,139 5,458 6,139 6,645 6,254
Operating Profit 1,294 1,044 905 938 1,297 1,249 1,316 1,280 1,367 1,155
Other Income 422 371 355 339 379 270 462 332 461 590
Depreciation 77 77 76 75 77 75 88 70 72 63
Interest 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4
Profit before tax 1,638 1,338 1,184 1,201 1,599 1,444 1,689 1,542 1,757 1,678
PBT Margin 27% 26% 24% 22% 24% 23% 25% 21% 22% 23%
% Growth YOY -2% 8% 43% 28% 10% 16%
Tax 438 361 322 364 406 431 514 500 500 457
Net profit 1,201 977 862 837 1,194 1,013 1,175 1,042 1,257 1,221
% Growth YOY -1% 4% 36% 25% 5% 20%
OPM 21% 21% 18% 17% 20% 20% 19% 17% 17% 16%
COMPANY NAME BAJAJ AUTO LTD
LATEST VERSION 2.10 PLEASE DO NOT MAKE ANY CHA
CURRENT VERSION 2.10

META
Number of shares 28.94
Face Value 10
Current Price 3008.15
Market Capitalization 87045.94

PROFIT & LOSS

Report Date Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14
Sales 8446.03 11543.16 16429.09 19594.65 20041.99 20158.29
Raw Material Cost 6459 8142.9 11901.35 14211.67 14401.19 13895.8
Change in Inventory -2.57 39.09 98.19 85.65 -32.35 12.57
Power and Fuel 60.92 70.35 86.79 102.09 121.57 106.37
Other Mfr. Exp 131.42 143.73 167.27 226.04 261.26 530.42
Employee Cost 543.39 589.42 484.73 525.46 622.21 701.66
Selling and admin 484.91 510.33 578.52 736.41 771.55 566.47
Other Expenses 128.4 158.71 166.81 247.31 246.23 279.84
Other Income 323.99 459.45 1405.78 501.83 797.13 681.81
Depreciation 130.62 137.41 123.89 146.73 167.81 181.32
Interest 21.89 6.75 2.39 22.79 1.19 0.82
Profit before tax 821.32 2297.77 4437.97 4013.06 4276.61 4654.87
Tax 285.98 700.83 1006.29 1019.66 1228.52 1420.47
Net profit 535.79 1597.22 3454.89 3048.62 3132.69 3380.28
Dividend Amount 318.3 578.72 1157.48 1302.16 1302.16 1446.85

Quarters
Report Date Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17
Sales 6054.52 5066.89 4897.32 5442.37 6579.91 6387.64
Expenses 4760.06 4022.88 3992.38 4504.44 5282.44 5138.73
Other Income 421.66 371.39 355.06 338.52 379.08 270.11
Depreciation 76.95 77.17 75.7 75.26 76.97 74.68
Interest 0.68 0.26 0.24 0.24 0.47 0.3
Profit before tax 1638.49 1337.97 1184.06 1200.95 1599.11 1444.04
Tax 437.77 361.15 321.82 364.2 405.53 430.9
Net profit 1200.72 976.82 862.25 836.74 1193.58 1013.16
Operating Profit 1294.46 1044.01 904.94 937.93 1297.47 1248.91

BALANCE SHEET
Report Date Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14
Equity Share Capital 144.68 144.68 289.37 289.37 289.37 289.37
Reserves 1668.11 2572.25 4517.85 5792.35 7775.93 9877.89
Borrowings 1595.36 1361.03 347.44 150.47 115.58 59.19
Other Liabilities 2622.89 3056.35 4024.09 4933.23 4494.85 5227.7
Total 6031.04 7134.31 9178.75 11165.42 12675.73 15454.15
Net Block 1913.61 1812.33 1855.21 1920.03 2355.41 2659.62
Capital Work in Progress 22.06 41.52 69.86 41.65 293.55 144.06
Investments 1423.19 3445.23 4210.92 4472.78 6058.92 8447.77
Other Assets 2672.18 1835.23 3042.76 4730.96 3967.85 4202.7
Total 6031.04 7134.31 9178.75 11165.42 12675.73 15454.15
Receivables 280.94 238.52 338.74 401.93 734.33 796.21
Inventory 371.76 458.39 576.25 703.61 643.96 641.21
Cash & Bank 142.64 107.3 247.54 1659.84 566.51 500.9
No. of Equity Shares 144683510 144683510 289367020 289367020 289367020 289367000
New Bonus Shares 144683510
Face value 10 10 10 10 10 10

CASH FLOW:
Report Date Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14
Cash from Operating Activity 328.68 2564.08 1639.37 3246.27 2218.3 3501.71
Cash from Investing Activity -173.01 -1935.04 -627.03 -849.78 -1394.43 -2072.26
Cash from Financing Activity -84.27 -664.38 -870.93 -1462.36 -1444.69 -1495.69
Net Cash Flow 71.4 -35.34 141.41 934.13 -620.82 -66.24

PRICE: 317.618889 1033.9281 1447.5474 1650.53 1764.835 2012.6289

DERIVED:
Adjusted Equity Shares in Cr 28.94 28.94 28.94 28.94 28.94 28.94
DO NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THIS SHEET

Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18

21614.27 22586.52 21766.68 25164.92
14907.89 14993.41 14667.83 17400.41
56.46 -63.45 43.68 -9.68
114.8 120.66 96.46 100.26
655.78 644.19 547.54 550.16
866.42 883.42 997.39 1069.48
742.46 832.25 702.17 855.93
511.26 278.25 397.7 424.26
424.73 1199.19 1472.7 1470.71
267.46 307.16 307.29 314.8
6.49 1.05 1.4 1.31
4082.95 5678.89 5587.55 5933.41
1271.05 1617.65 1508.07 1714.47
3025.63 4061.24 4079.49 4218.95
1446.85 1591.54 1591.54 1736.22

Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18

6773.3 7419.29 8011.84 7409.36
5457.67 6138.82 6644.6 6254.01
461.87 331.9 461.32 589.59
87.89 69.97 71.51 63.38
0.3 0.31 0.31 3.57
1689.31 1542.09 1756.74 1677.99
513.84 500.32 500.17 457.22
1175.47 1041.78 1256.57 1220.77
1315.63 1280.47 1367.24 1155.35

Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18

 289.37 289.37 289.37 289.37
10805.95 13730.94 17567.2 20135.87
112.35 117.86 119.9 120.77
4895.12 3229.52 3829.72 4797.86
16102.79 17367.69 21806.19 25343.87
2448.03 2025.67 2001.79 1878.33
254.94 52.24 42.17 56.47
8985.25 11067.23 15477.04 18894.57
4414.57 4222.55 4285.19 4514.5
16102.79 17367.69 21806.19 25343.87
716.96 717.93 953.29 1491.87
814.15 719.07 728.38 742.58
592.74 867.03 301.36 792.66
289367020 289367020 289367020 289367020

10 10 10 10

Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18

2113.8 3689.85 3267.36 4327.84
-379.66 -67.52 -3609.68 -1954.48
-1644.18 -3384.08 -190.09 -1885.26
89.96 238.25 -532.41 488.1

2034.52 2474.32368 2833.23421 2833.11667

28.94 28.94 28.94 28.94

How to use it?
You can customize this workbook as you want.
You can add custom formating, add conditional formating, add your own formulas… do ANYTHING.
Please don't edit the "Data Sheet" only.

After customization, you can upload this back on Screener.

Upload on: https://www.screener.in/excel/

Download your customized workbooks now onwards.

Now whenever you will "Export to excel" from Screener, it will export your customized file.

TESTING:
This is a testing feature currently.
You can report any formula errors on the worksheet at: screener.feedback@dalal-street.in
… do ANYTHING.

dalal-street.in