IB - MATH HL PROBABILITY

1. [Maximum mark: 7]
Events A and B are such that P(A) = 0.3 and P(B) = 0.4.

(a) Find the value of P(A  B) when

(i) A and B are mutually exclusive;
(ii) A and B are independent. [4 marks]
(b) Given that P(A  B) = 0.6, find P(A | B). [3 marks]

2. [Maximum mark: 6]
In a population of rabbits, 1 % are known to have a particular disease. A test is
developed for the disease that gives a positive result for a rabbit that does have
the disease in 99 % of cases. It is also known that the test gives a positive result for a
rabbit that does not have the disease in 0.1 % of cases. A rabbit is chosen at random
from the population.
(a) Find the probability that the rabbit tests positive for the disease. [3 marks]
(b) Given that the rabbit tests positive for the disease, show that the probability that
the rabbit does not have the disease is less than 10 %. [3 marks]

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3. [Maximum mark: 7]
Two players, A and B, alternately throw a fair six–sided dice, with A starting, until one
of them obtains a six. Find the probability that B obtains the first six.

4. [Maximum mark: 10]

The probability distribution of a discrete random variable X is defined by

 3
P(X = x) = k   , x = 0, 1, 2, 3.
 x
(a) Find the value of k [3 marks]
(b) Find E ( X ) [2 marks]
(c) Find Var (X ) [3 marks]
(d) Find the median. [2 marks]

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5. [Maximum mark: 16]
A random variable has a probability density function given by
kx(2 − x), 0  x  1
f ( x) = 
 k 1 x  2
3
(a) Show that k =
5
[2 marks]
(b) Find P( X  0.5)
(c) Find E ( X ) [2 marks]
[3 marks]
(d) Find Var (X )
[3 marks]
(e) Find the median.
[3 marks]
(f) Find the interquartile range.
[3 marks]

6. [Maximum mark: 6]
Find E ( X 2 ) in each of the following cases

(a) X follows B(10,0.3) [2 marks]

(b) X follows N(10,0.3) [2 marks]
(c) X follows Po(10) [2 marks]

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7. [Maximum mark: 6]
4
A biased coin is weighted such that the probability of obtaining a head is .
7
The coin is tossed 6 times and X denotes the number of heads observed.
P ( X = 3)
(a) Find analytically the value of the ratio . [3 marks]
P ( X = 2)
(b) Find the probability that more heads than tails are observed. [3 marks]

8. [Maximum mark: 8]
The fish in a lake have weights that are normally distributed with a mean of 1.3 kg
and a standard deviation of 0.2 kg.

(a) Determine the probability that a fish that is caught weighs less than 1.4 kg. [1 mark]

(b) 25% of the fish weigh more than a. Find the value of a. [2 marks]
(c) John catches 6 fish. Calculate the probability that at least 4 of the fish weigh
more than 1.4 kg.
[3 marks]
(d) Determine the probability that a fish that is caught weighs less than 1 kg, given
that it weighs less than 1.4 kg. [2 marks]

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9. [Maximum mark: 5]
The speeds of cars at a certain point on a straight road are normally distributed
with mean µ and standard deviation σ. 15% of the cars travelled at speeds greater
than 90 km h–1 and 15 % of them at speeds less than 50 km h–1. Find µ and σ.

10. [Maximum mark: 7]

Mr. Lee is planning to go fishing this weekend. Assuming that the number of fish
caught per hour follows a Poisson distribution with mean 0.6, find

(a) the probability that he catches at least one fish in the first hour; [2 marks]
(b) the probability that he catches exactly three fish if he fishes for four hours; [2 marks]

(c) the number of complete hours that Mr Lee needs to fish so that the probability of

catching more than two fish exceeds 80 %. [3 marks]

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11. [Maximum mark: 6]
The random variable X follows a Poisson distribution with mean λ.
(a) Find λ if P(X < 2) = 0.123. [4 marks]
(b) With this value of λ, find P(0 < X < 9). [2 marks]

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12. [Maximum mark: 16]

Tim throws two identical fair dice simultaneously. Each die has six faces: two
faces numbered 1, two faces numbered 2 and two faces numbered 3. His score
is the sum of the two numbers shown on the dice.
(a) (i) Calculate the probability that Tim obtains a score of 6.
(ii) Calculate the probability that Tim obtains a score of at least 3.
[3 marks]

Tim plays a game with his friend Bill, who also has two dice numbered in the same
way. Bill’s score is the sum of the two numbers shown on his dice. [4 marks]
(b) (i) Calculate the probability that Tim and Bill both obtain a score of 6.
(ii) Calculate the probability that Tim and Bill obtain the same score.

(c) Let X denote the largest number shown on the four dice.
16
(i) Show that P(X ≤ 2) = .
81 [5 marks]
(ii) Copy and complete the following probability distribution table.

x 1 2 3 [4 marks]

1
P(X = x)
81

(iii) Calculate E(X)

(d) Given that X = 3, find the probability that the sum of the numbers shown on the
four dice is 8.