Measurement Uncertainty Procedures Revisited: Direct Determination of Uncertainty and Bias Handling
Measurement Uncertainty Procedures Revisited: Direct Determination of Uncertainty and Bias Handling
testing laboratories can use this simplifi- elimination of the split German accredita- (GUM) [1] by ISO in 1993 started a revo-
cation of the accreditation system in the tion system. The efforts must, however, lution in measurement quality assurance.
area of technical goods transport for the be concentrated and concerted. The principles set out in this document
classification of materials, raw materials constitute a coherent and consistent sche-
and products or product certification. Ex- me for evaluating and processing the un-
amples of this are the testing of mineral certainty of measurement results, which
oil and fuels, material analysis of iron References has been missing for a long time. Among
and steel products, of non-iron metals others, this breakthrough is founded on
1. DIN EN 45001 (1989) General criteria
and of lacquers, paints and pigments. the uniform view of uncertainty as lack of
for the operation of testing laborato-
information, and quantification of uncer-
ries, Brussels
tainty by the standard deviation of proba-
2. ISO Guide 25 (1990) General require-
bility distributions expressing the availa-
ments for the competence of calibra-
Conclusion ble information.
tion and testing laboratories, 3rd edn.
Although the GUM methodology is,
Geneva
in principle, applicable to all types and
The accreditation and the confirmed 3. DIN EN 45004 (1995) General criteria
levels of measurement, it soon became
quality assurance of analytical work on a for the operation of different types of
apparent that for practical applications
high level is an important goal of every authorities carrying out inspections.
sectorial guidance documents were
laboratory. However, quality assurance Brussels
needed. The guide “Quantifying Uncer-
must not be done for its own sake. The 4. DIN EN 45011 (1989) General criteria
tainty in Analytical Measurement” [2]
number one goal of every laboratory for authorities certifying products.
published by EURACHEM in 1995 was
must be the “generation” of testing re- Brussels
intended to pave the way for implemen-
sults. An appropriate quality assurance
tation of the GUM methodology in
system must also make sure that the test-
(quantitative) chemical analysis.
ing results are comprehensible and under- Presented at: Analytica Conference 98,
The principles for evaluation and ex-
standable for the customer. In order to Symposium 1 : “Trends of accreditation
pression of measurement uncertainty in
guarantee this a certification of compe- and licensing of laboratories“ Munich,
chemical analysis are now well known, as
tence by independent third parties will be 21–24 April 1998
a result of the workshops organized by
necessary in the future.
EURACHEM in Graz 1994 and in Berlin
The German accreditation system W. Jäger (Y) 7 K. Gerlach
1997. In addition, these principles have
must be simplified and made more effec- Institut Dr. Jäger,
been described and explained in recent
tive in order to make it possible to sup- Ernst-Simon-Strasse 2–4
publications, e.g. by A Williams, Chair-
port both the quality of the analytical 72072 Tübingen, Germany
man of EURACHEM’s Uncertainty
work and the results. Several authorities Tel.: c49-7071-7007-0
Working Group [3], and need not be re-
and organizations are working on the FAX: c49-7071-7007-77
peated here. So far, procedures for uncer-
tainty evaluation have focused on the
step-by-step approach (also called bot-
tom-up approach), where the uncertainty
is calculated from a combination of var-
ious components, relating to building
POLICIES AND CONCEPTS blocks of the overall procedure or to sig-
nificant error sources. This approach re-
quires thorough investigation of the ana-
lytical procedure and proper assessment
Relevant accreditation policies and concepts in EU-, EFTA-, NAFTA- of component uncertainties. Its main
and other regions tools are uncertainty budgets and uncer-
tainty propagation, based on an appro-
priate mathematical model of the analyti-
Accred Qual Assur 3 : 418–422 guides published by ISO and EURA- cal process. Much less attention has been
Q Springer-Verlag 1998 CHEM, were reviewed, and the inventory paid so far to the direct approach (the
of procedures and tools for effective im- top-down approach), where the uncer-
Werner Hässelbarth plementation of these principles was ex- tainty is determined directly by investi-
amined. While the emphasis in the lec- gating the spread of results obtained on
ture was on basic principles, this article samples of known composition. This ap-
Measurement uncertainty presents a more detailed elaboration of proach requires appropriate reference
procedures revisited: one of the main practical procedures out-
lined in the lecture: direct determination
materials or reference analytical methods.
In addition the comparison measurements
Direct determination of uncertainty and handling of bias. have to be performed under appropriate
reproducibility conditions.
of uncertainty and bias Key words Uncertainty 7 Traceability 7 According to the step-by-step ap-
Validation 7 Bias handling proach the uncertainty of the results of
handling an analytical procedure is determined on
the basis of a detailed uncertainty budget
in a series of steps as follows:
Abstract This article is based on a lec- 1. Separate the analytical procedure into
ture presented at the Analytica Confer- Introduction well-designed steps, e.g. sample pre-
ence, where the basic principles for evalu- treatment, measurement and data eval-
ating and expressing the uncertainty of Publication of the “Guide to the Expres- uation.
analytical measurements, as set out in the sion of Uncertainty in Measurement”
419
2. For each step identify and list all these steps are given in the EURA- As an obvious requirement, both ap-
sources of uncertainty, that is, all fac- CHEM Guide [2]. proaches, if properly executed, should
tors that may influence the perform- – Often the model (Eq. 1) will include lead to the same result, that is, there
ance of the step. factors 1Bu(1) and additive terms should be no significant difference be-
3. Make a preliminary estimate of the 0Bu(0) which do not contribute to the tween standard uncertainties determined
contribution of the identified uncer- value of y but do contribute to its un- directly and corresponding standard un-
tainty sources to the uncertainty of the certainty u(y). certainties calculated step-by-step from
target quantity, most often the content – Often the model (Eq. 1) will not be an uncertainty budgets. Therefore, as alrea-
of a specified analyte. algebraic equation but a computer al- dy proposed by Heydorn [6], the direct
4. Decide about which uncertainty contri- gorithm, and the sensitivity coefficients approach can (and should !) be used to
butions merit refined evaluation (sig- according to Eq. (2) will be calculated verify uncertainty budgets. If the actual
nificant contributions) and which can by numerical differentiation instead of variability (standard deviation) of repli-
be neglected (insignificant contribu- differential calculus. cate analytical results agrees with the pre-
tions). As an alternative to the step-by-step ap- dicted standard uncertainty, the uncer-
5. Taking into account the results of pre- proach, as outlined above, in the direct tainty budget is confirmed. Often, howev-
vious steps, design a mathematical approach the analytical procedure is ap- er, the predicted standard uncertainty will
model describing the target quantity of plied to appropriate reference samples, be significantly smaller than the experi-
the analytical procedure, y, as a func- and the results are compared with the mental standard deviation. Then the un-
tion of input parameters xi (ip1, 2, ..., reference values attributed to the refer- certainty budget has to be re-examined
N) associated with the significant un- ence samples. Alternatively, the proce- and corrected for identified errors. Ob-
certainty contributions, e.g. sample dure under investigation and an estab- vious possible errors are:
flow, pressure and temperature, recov- lished reference method are applied in – overlooking major uncertainty contri-
ery rates, measured instrument re- parallel to appropriate samples, and the butions
sponse, response function parameters, results are compared. This comparison – underestimation of major uncertainty
conversion factors and corrections. serves a double purpose: contributions.
(a) By comparing the mean of repeated Of course amendments of uncertainty
ypF(x1, x2, ..., xN). (1) measurements with the corresponding budgets have to be comprehensible. Com-
6. For each significant uncertainty source reference value, analytical bias is de- pletion of an uncertainty budget by an
evaluate the contribution ui(y) to the tected, if significant. In addition an empirical “recovery factor” is certainly
uncertainty of the target quantity, y, as appropriate bias correction is derived. not acceptable.
a standard uncertainty, that is, as a (b) From the spread of results of repeated
standard deviation, either of a series of measurements and the uncertainty of
repeated measurement results (type A the reference values the uncertainty of
the results of the analytical procedure, Direct determination of uncertainty
evaluation), or of a hypothetical distri-
bution expressing the available infor- including bias correction, is calculated.
mation about the respective quantity A more detailed description of this com- For determining the uncertainty of a can-
(type B evaluation). As a rule, ui(y) is parison and its evaluation is given in the didate analytical method, the method is
determined as a product of a sensitivi- next section. applied to appropriate calibration sam-
ty coefficient ci taken from the model, This approach can be applied either ples, and the results are compared with
and the standard uncertainty u(xi) of by an individual laboratory or in an inter- the reference values attributed to the cali-
the respective input quantity: laboratory study. In the first case it is es- bration samples. Alternatively, the candi-
sentially a calibration study. Then it is date method and a reference method, i.e.
ui (y)pciu (xi) where cipiF/ixi . (2) important to ensure that: a method whose uncertainty is known,
– the reference values and their uncer- are applied in parallel to appropriate
7. Consider possible correlations between tainties are well established samples, and the results of the candidate
different uncertainty contributions – the calibration samples are representa- method are compared with those of the
ui(y)and uj(y), determined before, e.g. tive for the range of samples to be ana- reference method. This comparison is
due to use of the same measurement lysed performed and evaluated in a series of
standard. If relevant, estimate the cor- – the variability of measuring conditions three steps as follows:
responding covariance uij(y): in the calibration study covers the var- 1. The measurement results and the cor-
iability in the intended applications. responding reference values are com-
uij(y)pcicj cov(xi, xj) (3) In the second case of an interlabora- pared, taking into account the relevant
8. Calculate the combined standard un- tory study the procedures described in uncertainties. Typically, the difference
certainty u(y) of the target quantity, y, the ISO 5725 series of International between corresponding values is tested
as the root of the sum of squares of Standards [4] should be followed. In this for significance against the expanded
the constituent standard uncertainties case the reproducibility standard devia- uncertainty on that difference, using
and their possible covariances: tion sR provides an estimate of the aver- an appropriate coverage factor.
age uncertainty of the analytical proce- 2. If significant bias has been found, a
dure under investigation. In applications bias correction for the specified meas-
u 2(y)p Au 2i (y)c2 A uij(y) . (4) of methods validated by interlaboratory uring range is derived. For a restricted
i i~j
studies, however, laboratories have to measuring range this can be a bias fac-
Remarks: consider additional individual uncertain- tor or an additive correction term,
– It is understood that a correction is ap- ties, see e.g. Ref. [5]. based on a single-level comparison.
plied to every identified source of sys- If neither suitable reference samples For extended measuring ranges correc-
tematic error, leaving as a contribution nor reference methods are available, the tion curves or correction functions are
to the overall uncertainty budget the comparison may be based on consensus required, based on multi-level compar-
uncertainty of the correction. values instead of reference values, as a isons.
– Generic steps of analytical procedures substitute but by no means as an equival- 3. The uncertainty of the results of future
and uncertainty sources relevant for ent. measurements, including bias correc-
420
smeas certainty, due to expected bias, and com- single squared difference (x–m) 2 is a one-
u(xmeas) p . (14) bine it with the measurement standard shot estimate of the variance s 2. In the
;m
deviation. In this case, as no correction is special case where mp0, a single square
Here smeas is the standard deviation of the applied, we use the symbol xest instead of x 2 is a one-shot estimate of s 2. Now, as-
results of repeated measurements on the xcorr for the estimate of the true quantity sume that for the analytical method un-
test sample. Analogously, the relative under consideration, taking into account der consideration the bias varies at ran-
standard uncertainty ur(xmeas) is ex- the results of bias investigation. Then, dom over the specified range of analyte
pressed in terms of the relative standard keeping with the other notation in the concentration, matrix composition and
deviation srmeas. Sect. Direct determination of uncertainty, measuring conditions, taking values from
If it can be taken for granted that the a distribution of biases with expectation
spread of the results of repeated measur- xestpxmeas (15) zero and variance s 2bias. Then the
ements on the test sample is the same as squared difference (~x 1 –xref) 2, deter-
that on the reference sample, the stand- and the standard uncertainty on xest is
mined at a single reference point, is a
ard deviation smeas can be replaced by the given by
one-shot estimate of the expectation of
standard deviation s of the results of re- u(xest) 2pu(xmeas) 2c(~x 1 Pxref) 2 (16) the squared bias, hence of the bias var-
peated measurements on the reference iance s 2bias.
sample. Analogously, if the spread of the As an ad hoc statistical rationale, this Now it is time to compare the ap-
results of repeated measurements is equation may be justified as follows. proach described above, where significant
known to grow proportionally to the First, we note the basic fact that a single bias is not corrected but added to the un-
measured quantity, the relative standard value x from a probability distribution certainty budget, with the approach in the
deviation srmeas referring to the test sam- with expectation m and variance s 2 is a Sect. Direct determination of uncertainty,
ple, can be replaced by the relative stand- one-shot estimate (or a ”John-Wayne es- where significant bias is corrected, and
ard deviation sr referring to the reference timate”) of the expectation m. Similarly, a the uncertainty on the correction is added
sample.
Finally it has to be noted that if the
same correction is applied to independent
measurement results, the final results in-
cluding bias correction are correlated. In
the case of additive bias correction by
means of a correction term a the corre-
sponding covariance is given by u(a) 2.
Analogously, in the case of multiplicative
bias correction by means of a correction
factor f the corresponding covariance is
given by ur(f) 2.