INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SCIENTIFIC & TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH VOLUME 4, ISSUE 12, DECEMBER 2015 ISSN 2277-8616

Decline Curve Analysis In East Almabrouk Field-

Case Study
Alfitouri Ibrahim Jellah, Mohamed Almabrouk Alhashi

Abstract: Production decline analysis is the analysis of the past trends of declining production performance, that is, rate versus time and rate versus
cumulative production plots, for wells and reservoirs. In petroleum industry there are four methods to evaluate the reserves such as volumetric, material
balance, numerical simulation and decline curve analysis. Decline curve analysis has been used to provide a best-fit equation for series of data point by
least squares method. This method has been proved useful for decline curve analysis in order to estimate the initial decline rate (D), initial rate (qi) and
the hyperbolic exponent (b), which can be used to plot the declining rate versus time after calculating the future rate at any desired time and calculating
the reserves from certain time to an economic.

Index Terms: Analysis, Curve, Decline, Estimate, Production, Rate, Reserves.

————————————————————

1 INTRODUCTION
In this work, type of reservoir decline will be investigated, in
order to estimate the remaining reserves, total reserves; the
productive life of wells or reservoir, and the future flow rate of
the East Central Mabruk Field wells will be predicted. The
selected production intervals are long enough so that the data
will be sufficient to give good and reliable results. The
production data points for each interval are analyzed
separately to evaluate the effect of the change in the
production and reservoir conditions on the remaining reserves.
In this study production decline curve was analyzed for five
producing wells. Production decline analysis is a traditional
means of identifying well production problems and predicting
well performance and life based on real production data. It
uses empirical decline models that have little fundamental Figure (1): Decline curve–rate/time (exponential, harmonic,
justifications. These models include; and hyperbolic).
 Exponential decline (constant fractional decline),
 Harmonic decline, and 2 RESERVOIR DESCRIPTION
 Hyperbolic decline.
2.1 East Central Mabruk (ECM) Reservoir
These three models as shown in figure (1.1) are related Almabrouk field was discovered in 1999 by the well A-03,
through the following relative decline rate equation (Arps, which was put on production on 1999.The field stopped
1945). producing on the end of July 2013 due to SEDRA PORT
STRIK and resumed production on 24th September 2014. As
of December 31st 2014, ECM average production rate 244
bbl/day. As West Mabruk, this reservoir is highly
Eq. (1) heterogeneous. Following the results of the 2005 wells, the
development strategy has been re-examined. This has
involved heavy data acquisition and modeling programs.
Where b and d are empirical constants to be determined However, uncertainties remain, mainly on the detailed
based on production data. mapping of reservoir bodies and on the impact of
faults/fractures on sweep efficiency. These uncertainties will
be reduced by drilling and field observation. The approach to
follow these steps started from beginning 2008, and is
summarized below:
 First, to demonstrate water injection feasibility and
effectiveness by an injection test with four pilot
injector wells: two supporting A-07 and two supporting
A-84. Each time, two directions of sweep will be
tested, along and perpendicular to the field extent and
______________________________ main fracture direction.
 Then, following the analysis of these pilots, the water
 Alfitouri Jellah is currently the head of Oil & Gas injection scheme using a step out strategy, will be
Engineering Department, Azzaytuna University Bani- progressively adapted to the results.
Walid/Libya, PH-00218-92-7345906.
 E-mail: aimj_2100@yahoo.com There are four pilot injector wells were already drilled and
started injection on 2013 (A135i, A136i, A140i and A141i). A
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INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SCIENTIFIC & TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH VOLUME 4, ISSUE 12, DECEMBER 2015 ISSN 2277-8616

pressure acquisition campaign already performed, before the WHIP. A135 has 0 psi WHIP could be due to the fracture area
start of the injection in order to get a clear baseline. as the well is near to the fault. Later on, in the mid of 2013
another two wells were added to the ECM injection pilot (A140i
2.1 East Central Mabruk (ECM) Reservoir Summary and A141i).
Below is a brief comparison of 2013 and 2014 performance
and production data up to the end of the year:

Performance and Production

2013 2014 Unit
Data
Average Oil Rate 771 244 STB/D
Water Cut 4.7 4 %
GOR 70 70 SCF/STB
Oil Produced 281.512 89.21 MSTB
Water Produced 13.925 3.763 MBBL

Table (1): Reservoir Performance and Production Data

Basic Reservoir Data Parameter Unit

Discovery Well A-03 ** Figure (2): A135i and A136i Injection Rate Performance
Date of First Production 1999 **
Original OWC NA ft S.S 3 METHODOLOGY
Current OWC NA ft S.S.
Well Spacing 1,391 Acres
As demonstrated in this document, the numbering for sections
Average Reservoir Depth 3,300 ft/GL upper case Arabic numerals, then upper case Arabic
Datum Level 2,530 ft S.S. numerals, separated by periods. Initial paragraphs after the
Original BHP 1,225 psia section title are not indented. Only the initial, introductory
Current BHP 600 psia paragraph has a drop cap. The only software used In this work
was Microsoft EXCEL following procedure was followed:
Table (2): Basic Reservoir Data 1.The production history of the field as well as the wells
was collected.
Rock Properties Value Unit 2.The production history was plot as a flow rate versus time
Formation Mabruk -- for each well and for the reservoir.
Lithology Limestone -- 3.Then, the decline intervals were selected to perform the
Porosity 20 % DCA.
Water Saturation 45 % 4.The DCA was repeated under three scenarios: all data
Rock Compressibility 4.00E-06 psi-1
points were considered, averaging the data points and
screening the data points.
Table (3): Rock Properties  Assume a certain value for (b) (e.g. 0).
 Using the equations of the Least Squares
Reservoir Data Value Unit methods given in Equations (2.21) and (2.22),
Original Net Thickness 45 ft evaluate (ai) and (qi).
Area @ Original OWC NA Acres
 Write the production decline equation using the
Bulk Reservoir Volume 3,400E06 m3
Production Area 23645 Acres values of (ai) and (qi) calculated in step (2) and
Initial Gross Pay 60 ft the assumed value of (b).
Porosity 20 %  Substitute the original data values of (t) in the
Water Saturation 49.5 % equation and evaluate the “calculated rate, (q)”.
Oil Gravity 34 °API  Calculate the sum of squares of the
discrepancies between the calculated rate values
Table (.4): Reservoir Data Summary n

∑(q cal qk)2

2.2 East Central Mabruk: Reservoir Management and measured rate values, i.e. k =1
East Central Mabruk field average oil rate since 1st of January  Repeat steps (1-5) for different values of (b),
2014 up to 31st of December 2014 is 244 bbl/day with ~4 % preferably increments of (0.1) and calculate the
water cut. The production rate is below the potential because sum of the squares of the discrepancies in each
the production duration is less than three months. The case.
pressure measurements on East Central Mabruk have been  Compare the sum values calculated, and choose
taken as SGS and XPT in DSE development wells while the least sum. This will define the most
crossing the Mabruk formation. The depletion trend is appropriate values of (b), (qi) and (ai) which can
consistent throughout the East Central Mabruk wells area be used for reserve calculation and future
except A55 (ECM suspended well, far to the South) which is prediction
out of the trend with high pressure. The pressure points are 5. The results were interpreted and plotted in figures from
dispersed due to the low reservoir permeability. The pilot (1 to 24).
injection started in January, 4th 2013 with two wells (A135Hi 6. The effect of operations done on the selected wells was
and A136Hi). The average water injection in A135Hi is 943 studied.
bwpd with 0 psi WHIP and A136Hi is 834 bwpd with 1110 psi
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Decline Type Harmonic

b= 1.00
qi = 278.41 bpd
ai = 0.223494 / year
qcal. at end of Period 177.58 bpd

Figure (3): Production History Raw Data

4 RESULTS ANALYSIS & DISCUSSION Figure (5): Well A03 -Decline Period (1) Semi-Log Plot.

WELL A03_PRODUCTION DECLINE ANALYSIS

Decline curve analysis was applied on production data of Well
A03. The production history was divided into two main periods:
 Period (1): for time from 31st of December 1999 to
31st of May 2001.
 Period (2): for time from 31st of December 1999 to
31st of May 2003.

Then DCA technique was applied in order to determine decline

type, decline factor and initial decline rate which are then used
to determine other evaluation parameters such total reserves,
remaining reserves and abandonment time. Calculations and
results are shown in the following figures and tables.

Figure (6): Well A03 - Decline Period with Forecast.

Well Name A03

Period of Analysis Period
From To
Period
31/12/98 31/05/01
Decline Type Harmonic
b= 1.00
qi = 278.41 bpd
ai = 0.223494 / year
q cal. at end of Period 177.58 bpd
Np at end of Period 200,911 bbl
Assumed qe 50 bpd
Remaining Reserves 576,658 bbl
Total Reserves 777,569 bbl
time 31.58 years

Figure (4): Well A03, Oil Production History. Table (0): Well A03 Period Production Decline Analysis
Results

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WELL A07_PRODUCTION DECLINE ANALYSIS

Well Name A07

Period of Analysis 1

From From
Period
31/05/99 30/04/00

Decline Type Harmonic

b= 1.00

qi = 603.98 603.98

ai = 0.141905 0.141905

q cal. at end of Period 227.38 227.38

Np at end of Period 1,656,553 1,656,553 Figure (3): Well A07 Production History Plot - Forecast
Assumed qe 50 50
WELL A58_PRODUCTION DECLINE ANALYSIS
Remaining Reserves 2,354,595 2,354,595

Total Reserves 4,011,148 4,011,148 Well Name A58

Time 128.9306053 128.9306053 Period of Analysis 1

From From
Table (1): Results of Well A07 Decline Period . Period
31/10/07 31/07/09

Decline Type Harmonic

b= 1.00

qi = 224.82 224.82

ai = 0.7384695 0.7384695

q cal. at end of Period 109.92 109.92

Np at end of Period 668,719 668,719

Assumed qe 50 50

Remaining Reserves 87,593 87,593

Total Reserves 756,312 756,312

Time 4.796325092 4.796325092

Figure (7): Well A07 Oil Production History, Monthly.

Table (7): Results of Well A58Decline Period

Figure (2): Well A07 Decline Period (1) (Semi-Log)

Figure (4): Well A58 Oil Production History, Monthly

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WELL A101H_PRODUCTION DECLINE ANALYSIS

Well Name A101H

Period of Analysis First Period

From From
Period
31/01/05 31/01/05

Decline Type Harmonic

b= 1.00

qi = 421.34 421.34

ai = 0.3839532 0.3839532

q cal. at end of Period 238.40 238.40

Np at end of Period 252,081 252,081

Figure (11): Well A58 Oil Production History Decline Period Assumed qe 50 50

Remaining Reserves 626,049 626,049

Total Reserves 878,130 878,130

ta 34.28058806 34.28058806

Table (8): Results of Well A101 Decline Period

Figure (125): Well A58 Oil Production History Decline Period

(Semi-Log)

Figure (6): Well A101H Oil Production History ,Monthly

Figure (13): Well A58 Production History Plot - Forecast

Figure (15): Well A101H Oil Production History Decline

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Figure (7): Well A101H Oil Production History Decline Period Figure (18) Well A84H Oil Production History ,Monthly
(Semi-Log)

Figure (199): Well A84H Oil Production History Decline

Figure (178): Well A101H Production History Plot - Forecast

WELL A84_PRODUCTION DECLINE ANALYSIS

Well Name A84 H

Period of Analysis First Period
From From
Period
31/05/00 31/05/00
Decline Type Harmonic
b= 1.00
qi = 1,257.96 1,257.96
ai = 0.2661211 0.2661211
q cal. at end of Period 555.79 555.79
Np at end of Period 2,123,049 2,123,049
Assumed qe 50 50
Remaining Reserves 4,158,150 4,158,150 Figure (20): Well A84H Oil Production History Decline Period
(Semi-Log)
Total Reserves 6,281,199 6,281,199
ta 227.6879041 227.6879041

Table (9): Results of Well A84 Decline Period.

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York: McGraw-Hill, 1981.

[6] Cutler, W.W., Jr: '' Estimation of underground oil reserves by well
production curves. '' USBM Bull, 228 (1924).

[7] Urayet A. A.: ''Oil Property Evaluation'' Al-Fateh University,

Tripoli, 1998.

[8] Arps, J. J.: "Estimation of primary oil Reserves", Trans., AIME

(1956).

Figure (21): Well A84H Production History Plot - Forecast

3. CONCLUSION
The main Conclusions of this project can be summarized
as follows:
1. The value of reservoir factor (b) is almost equal to one
which means the reservoir is working as volumetric;
solution gas drives mechanism.
2. It was noticed that the value of reservoir factor (b)
differs from one well to the other within the reservoir,
this is a result of that the some of the wells are far
from the injector wells.
3. The wells which located near to the water injection
wells have a value of (b) equal to zero which mean
the water injection project was successful.
4. The other factors effected in production decline
analysis including (b) factor, or (reservoir factor) are:
 Human factors.
 Production conditions.
5. The degree of uncertainty is inversely proportional to
the duration of the production decline range.
Consequently, the problem of uncertainty is most
evident at the start of the production period (i.e.
decline period < 2years).
6. The major gradual decline in the production rate of
wells caused by rapid decrease in the reservoir
pressure.

Acknowledgment
The authors wish to thank Almabrouk Company (TOTAL-
Libya) for providing the data required to complete this work.

REFERENCES
[1] Barry K. Vansandt et al. "Gaudiness for application definitions for
oil and gas

[2] 4. Fundamental Principles of Petroleum Reservoir B.F. Towler.

Society of Petroleum Engineers Inc Engineering:

[3] Folkert Brons, "On the Use and Misuse of Production Decline
curve," API paper 801-39E (1963).

[4] Arps, J. J.: "Analysis of Decline Curves," Trans., AIME (1944).

[5] Nind, T.E.W. Principles of Oil Well Production, 2nd edition. New
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