VALUATION OF BONDS AND

SHARES
 Introduction
• Assets can be real or financial; securities like shares and bonds
are called financial assets while physical assets like plant and
machinery are called real assets.

• The concepts of return and risk, as the determinants of value,

are as fundamental and valid to the valuation of securities as
to that of physical assets.

• Efficient capital market implies a well-informed, properly

functioning capital market.

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 Concept of Value
• Book Value- Book value per share is determined as
net worth divided by the number of shares
outstanding. Book value reflects historical cost,
rather than value.
• Replacement Value- Replacement value is the
amount that a company would be required to spend
if it were to replace its existing assets in the current
condition.

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 Concept of Value
• Liquidation Value- Liquidation value is the amount
that a company could realise if it sold its assets, after
having terminated its business.
• Going Concern Value- Going concern value is the
amount that a company could realise if it sold its
business as an operating business.
• Market Value- Market value of an asset or security is
the current price at which the asset or the security is
being sold or bought in the market.

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 Features of a Bond
• Long-term debt instrument or security.
• Can be secured or unsecured.
• Interest Rate or coupon rate is fixed
• Face Value or par value of Rs 100 or Rs 1,000, and interest is
paid on face value.
• Maturity is fixed.
• Redemption value - may be redeemed at par or premium.
• Market Value- may be different from par value or redemption
value as it is traded in the market.

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 Bond Indentures
• Contract between the company and the bondholders
and includes
• The basic terms of the bonds
• The total amount of bonds issued
• A description of property used as security, if applicable
• Sinking fund provisions
• Call provisions
• Details of protective covenants

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 Types of Bonds
• Bonds with maturity
• Pure discount bonds -The bond discount is the
difference between the par value and the selling
price.
• Perpetual bonds

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 Bond with Maturity

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 Example

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 Yield to Maturity

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 Current Yield
• Current yield is the annual interest divided by the
bond’s current value.
• Example: The annual interest is Rs 60 on the current
investment of Rs 883.40. Therefore, the current rate
of return or the current yield is: 60/883.40 = 6.8 per
cent.
• Current yield does not account for the capital gain or
loss.

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 Yield to Call

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 Bond Value and Amortisation of
Principal

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 Example
• Suppose the government is proposing to sell a 5-year
bond of Rs 1,000 at 8 per cent rate of interest per
annum. The bond amount will be amortised (repaid)
equally over its life. If an investor has a minimum
required rate of return of 7 per cent, what is the
bond’s present value for him?

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 Example

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 Bond Values and Semi-annual Interest Payments

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 Example

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 Pure Discount Bonds
• Pure discount bond do not carry an explicit rate of
interest.
• It provides for the payment of a lump sum amount at
a future date in exchange for the current price of the
bond.
• The difference between the face value of the bond
and its purchase price gives the return or YTM to the
investor.

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 Pure Discount Bonds

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 Pure Discount Bonds

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 Example

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 Perpetual Bonds
• Perpetual bonds, also called consols, has an
indefinite life and therefore, it has no maturity
value. Perpetual bonds or debentures are
rarely found in practice.

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 Example

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Bond Values and Changes in Interest Rates
• The value of the bond
declines as the market
interest rate (discount rate)
increases.
• The value of a 10-year, 12
per cent Rs 1,000 bond for
the market interest rates
ranging from 0 per cent to
30 per cent is shown in the
figure.

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Bond Maturity and Interest Rate Risk
• The intensity of interest rate risk
would be higher on bonds with
long maturities than bonds with
short maturities.

• The differential value response to

interest rates changes between
short and long-term bonds will
always be true. Thus, two bonds
of same quality (in terms of the
risk of default) would have
different exposure to interest
rate risk.
Bond Value at Different Interest Rates

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 Bond Maturity and Interest Rate Risk

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 Bond Duration and Interest Rate Sensitivity

• The longer the maturity of a bond, the higher will be its

sensitivity to the interest rate changes. Similarly, the price of a
bond with low coupon rate will be more sensitive to the
interest rate changes.
• The bond’s price sensitivity can be more accurately estimated
by its duration. A bond’s duration is measured as the weighted
average of times to each cash flow (interest payment or
repayment of principal).

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 Duration of Bonds
• Let us consider two bonds with five-year maturity.
• The 8.5 per cent rate bond of Rs 1,000 face value has a current market
value of Rs 954.74 and a YTM of 10 per cent, and the 11.5 per cent rate
bond of Rs 1,000 face value has a current market value of Rs 1,044.57 and
a yield to maturity of 10.6 per cent.
• Next we find out the proportion of the present value of each flow to the
value of the bond.
• The duration of the bond is calculated as the weighted average of times to
the proportion of the present value of cash flows.

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 Volatility

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 The Term Structure of Interest Rates

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 The Term Structure of Interest Rates
• The upward sloping yield curve implies that the long-term
yields are higher than the short-term yields. This is the normal
shape of the yield curve, which is generally verified by
historical evidence.

• Many economies in high-inflation periods have witnessed the

short-term yields being higher than the long-term yields. The
inverted yield curves result when the short-term rates are
higher than the long-term rates.

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 The Expectation Theory
• The expectation theory supports the upward sloping yield
curve since investors always expect the short-term rates to
increase in the future.

• This implies that the long-term rates will be higher than the
short-term rates.

• But in the present value terms, the return from investing in a

long-term security will equal to the return from investing in a
series of a short-term security.

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 The Expectation Theory
• The expectation theory assumes
• capital markets are efficient
• there are no transaction costs and
• investors’ sole purpose is to maximize their returns
• The long-term rates are geometric average of current and
expected short-term rates.
• A significant implication of the expectation theory is that
given their investment horizon, investors will earn the
same average expected returns on all maturity
combinations.
• Hence, a firm will not be able to lower its interest cost in
the long-run by the maturity structure of its debt.

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 The Liquidity Premium Theory
• Long-term bonds are more sensitive than the prices
of the short-term bonds to the changes in the market
rates of interest.
• Hence, investors prefer short-term bonds to the long-
term bonds.
• The investors will be compensated for this risk by
offering higher returns on long-term bonds.
• This extra return, which is called liquidity premium,
gives the yield curve its upward bias.

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 The Liquidity Premium Theory
• The liquidity premium theory means that rates on long-term
bonds will be higher than on the short-term bonds.
• From a firm’s point of view, the liquidity premium theory
suggests that as the cost of short-term debt is less, the firm
could minimize the cost of its borrowings by continuously
refinancing its short-term debt rather taking on long-term
debt.

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 The Segmented Markets Theory
• The segmented markets theory assumes that the
debt market is divided into several segments based
on the maturity of debt.
• In each segment, the yield of debt depends on the
demand and supply.
• Investors’ preferences of each segment arise because
they want to match the maturities of assets and
liabilities to reduce the susceptibility to interest rate
changes.

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 The Segmented Markets Theory
• The segmented markets theory approach assumes
investors do not shift from one maturity to another in
their borrowing—lending activities and therefore, the
shift in yields are caused by changes in the demand
and supply for bonds of different maturities.

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 Default Risk and Credit Rating
• Default risk is the risk that a company will default on
its promised obligations to bondholders.
• Default premium is the spread between the
promised return on a corporate bond and the return
on a government bond with same maturity.

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Crisil’s Debenture Ratings

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 Valuation of Shares
• A company may issue two types of shares:
• ordinary shares and
• preference shares
• Features of Preference and Ordinary Shares
• Claims
• Dividend
• Redemption
• Conversion

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 Valuation of Preference Shares

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Value of a Preference Share-Example

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 Valuation of Ordinary Shares
• The valuation of ordinary or equity shares is relatively
more difficult.
• The rate of dividend on equity shares is not known; also,
the payment of equity dividend is discretionary.
• The earnings and dividends on equity shares are generally
expected to grow, unlike the interest on bonds and
preference dividend.

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 Dividend Capitalisation

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 Example- Single Period Valuation

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 An under-valued share has a market price
less than the share’s present value.

An over-valued share has a market price

higher than the share’s present value.

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 Multi-period Valuation

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 Multi-period Valuation

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 Growth in Dividends
• Earnings and dividends of most companies grow over
time, at least, because of their retention policies.

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 Normal Growth
• If a totally equity financed firm retains a constant
proportion of its annual earnings (b) and reinvests it
at its internal rate of return, which is its return on
equity (ROE), then it can be shown that the dividends
will grow at a constant rate equal to the product of
retention ratio and return on equity; that is,
g = b × ROE.

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 Normal Growth: Example

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 Perpetual Growth Model

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 Perpetual Growth Model
It is based on the following assumptions:
• The capitalization rate or the opportunity cost of capital must
be greater than the growth rate, (ke >g), otherwise absurd
results will be attained. If ke= g, the equation will yield an
infinite price, and if ke < g, the result will be a negative price.
• The initial dividend per share, DIV1, must be greater than zero
(i.e., DIV1 > 0).
• The relationship between ke and g is assumed to remain
constant and perpetual.

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 Example: Perpetual Growth

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 Super-normal Growth
• The dividends of a company may not grow at the same
constant rate indefinitely. It may face a two-stage growth
situation.
• In the first stage, dividends may grow at a super-normal
growth rate when the company is experiencing very high
demand for its products and is able to extract premium from
customers.
• Afterwards, the demand for the company’s products may
normalize and therefore, earnings and dividends may grow at
a normal growth rate.

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 Super-normal Growth
The share value in a two stage growth situation can be
determined in two parts.

• First, we can find the present value of constantly growing

dividend annuity for a definite super-normal growth period.

• Second, we can calculate the present value of constantly

growing dividend, indefinitely (in perpetuity), after the super-
normal growth period.

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 Example: Super-normal Growth

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 Example: Super-normal Growth

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 Example: Super-normal Growth

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 Example: Super-normal Growth

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 Firm Paying no Dividends
• Companies paying no dividends do command positive market
prices for their shares since the price today depends on the
future expectation of dividends.

• The non-payment of dividends may not last forever.

• Shareholders hold shares of such companies because they

expect that in the final analysis dividends will be paid, or they
will be able to realize capital gains.

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 Earnings Capitalisation
• Under two cases, the value of the share can be
determined by capitalising the expected earnings:
• When the firm pays out 100 per cent dividends; that is, it
does not retain any earnings.
• When the firm’s return on equity (ROE) is equal to its
opportunity cost of capital.

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 Equity Capitalisation Rate

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 Caution in Using Constant-Growth Formula

• Estimation errors
• Unsustainable high current growth
• Errors in forecasting dividends

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 EQUITY CAPITALIZATION RATE

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 Example: Equity Capitalization Rate

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 Linkages Between Share Price, Earnings And
Dividends
• Investors may choose between growth shares or income shares.
• Growth shares are those, which offer greater opportunities for capital
gains.
• Dividend yield (i.e. dividend per shares as a percentage of the market
price of the share) on such shares would generally be low since companies
would follow a high retention policy in order to have a high growth rate.
• Income shares are those that pay higher dividends, and offer low
prospects for capital gains.
• Those investors who want regular income would prefer to buy income
shares, which pay high dividends regularly. On the other hand, if
investors desire to earn higher return via capital gains, they would prefer
to buy growth shares. They would like a profitable company to retain its
earnings in the expectation of higher market price of the share in the
future.

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 Example: Linkages Between Share Price,
Earnings And Dividends

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 Example: Linkages Between Share Price,
Earnings And Dividends

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 Example: Linkages Between Share Price,
Earnings And Dividends

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 Price-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: How Significant?

• P/E ratio is calculated as the price of a share divided

by earning per share.
• Some people use P/E multiplier to value the shares of
companies.
• Alternatively, you could find the share value by
dividing EPS by E/P ratio, which is the reciprocal of
P/E ratio.

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