SPECULATIVE BUBBLES AND FINANCIAL CRISES

Valentina FETINIUC75
Luchian IVAN76
Sergiu GHERBOVEŢ77

Abstract
The speculative bubble can be defined as the trade in high volumes at prices that are considerably
at variance with intrinsic values of certain assets. The burst of speculative bubble can cause
financial crisis in specific form created by situation of investment process dysfunction, when
investors looking for investment refuges and refuse usual investment opportunities. This
phenomenon can be a substantial basis of liquidity crisis and general financial crisis. Therefore is
very important for regulation authorities to take in to account the possibility of this type of crisis to
elaborate specific measures to prevent and reduce the consequences.
Keywords: bubble, crisis, asset, price, factors
JEL classification: G11, G12, G15
Introduction
The term bubble in the economic sense is treated in the literature variously. According to Bill
Conerly (2013), “a bubble is a run-up in the price of an asset that is not justified by the fundamental
supply and demand factors for the asset that can occur in any traded commodity or financial
instrument.” From the other hand, Farlex Financial Dictionary (2012) treats bubble as a in which
prices for securities, especially stocks, rise far above their actual value. This trend continues until
investors realize just how far prices have risen, usually, but not always, resulting in a sharp decline.
Bubbles usually occur when investors, for any number of reasons, believe that demand for the
stocks will continue to rise or that the stocks will become profitable in short order. Both of these
scenarios result in increased prices. (Farlex Financial Dictionary, 2012)
The literature demonstrates the existence of several types of bubbles (Pettinger, 2013): market
bubble, commodity bubble, stock market bubble, credit bubbles, economic boom / bubble. Bubbles
can occur in any traded commodity or financial instrument. Bill Conerly (2013) suggests a partial list
of past bubbles:
Commodities: gold, sugar, coffee, cotton, wheat
Debt: various government bonds
Stocks: South Sea Company, British East India Company, Dutch East India Company, various
banks, railroad shares, conglomerates, new issues, high tech stocks
Real Estate: Mines, raw land (France, Austria, Germany, Florida, Arizona), hotels, office buildings,
single family homes, mines
Derivatives: commodity futures, stock puts and calls, collateralized debt obligations, credit default
swaps
In most cases the experts are willing to link financial crisis triggered a generalized type of bubbles.
It is speculative bubbles, which in simple form can be designed as a speculative bubble is a social
epidemic whose contagion is mediated by price movements. (Shiller, 2012) Also, the essence of
speculative bubbles can be express by definition of Tejvan Pettinger (2013), who believe that it
“typically refer to a situation where assets or financial instruments see a rapid increase in price – an
increase in price which is driven by speculative demand and unsustainable in the long run.”
From another point of view, speculative bubble is a spike in asset values within a particular
industry, commodity, or asset class. A speculative bubble is usually caused by exaggerated

75
International Institute of Management IMI-NOVA, Chisinau, Republic of Moldova
76
International Institute of Management IMI-NOVA, Chisinau, Republic of Moldova
77
National Institute for Economic Research, Academy of Sciences of Moldova, Chişinău, Republic of Moldova
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expectations of future growth, price appreciation, or other events that could cause an increase in
asset values. This drives trading volumes higher, and as more investors rally around the
heightened expectation, buyers outnumber sellers, pushing prices beyond what an objective
analysis of intrinsic value would suggest. (Speculative bubble, n.d.)
In the discussed context, it is interesting that some authors define speculative and financial bubbles
interchangeably:
financial bubbles are “movements in the price, apparently unjustified by information available at
the time, taking the form of a rapid increase followed by a burst or at least a sharp decline”.
(Dimitriadi, 2004, p. 2627)
a situation where there is a relatively high level of trading activity on a particular asset class at
price levels that are significantly higher than their intrinsic values. (Gallant, 2009)
Also significant is the statement that a bubble occurs when certain investments are bid up to prices
that are far too high to be sustainable in the long run.
Examples of Bubbles (Pettinger, 2013):
Tulip mania of 1630s. When the price of tulips rose to over 500 times their previous price before
collapsing when buyers stopped entering the market.
South Sea Bubble 1711-1720. A company set up to profit from British trade with South America.
The price of shares rose rapidly, but with the company failing to make any real profit, share
prices collapsed in 1720 and returned to pre-issue levels.
1920s credit and housing bubble in U.S. In the 1920s, there was a rapid growth of credit in the US.
This financed a boom in house building and also a boom in the stock market. This rise in credit
and share prices came to an abrupt end in 1929 with prices crashing.
Dot Com Bubble. A rapid growth in the share value of internet shares in 1997-2000.
Credit bubble of 2000s, which saw a rise in asset prices and bank lending.
2005-2009 housing bubble, which is an economic bubble affecting many parts of the United States
and other countries.
Bitcoin bubble - the latest bubble created by Bitcoin - a digital currency that has increased in value
by 900% over the last six months of 2013.
Studies of the concerned field show a specific range of the bubbles, which in general can be
rational, intrinsic and contagious. (Stock market bubble, n.d.)
Rational bubbles are formed in the market value of the asset deviation from the fundamental value
that the counter of the lack of arbitration.
A rational bubble implies a self confirmed belief that the price of an asset depends on the
information that include variables or parameters that are not part of the fundamentals of the market.
The literature shows that if market fundamentals are economically interesting, it is expected that
rational bubbles can be explosive and implosive. Further arguments based on existing literature
shows that the trend of maximizing utility requires finite limits on asset prices and therefore
opposes both explosive and implosive rational expectations of price developments, except
implosion worth the money.
The theoretical analysis of rational bubbles expands in two directions.
The first demonstrates that although demand response to current stock of assets at the current
price depends on fluctuations in the fundamental characteristics of the market. Such a response
would explode or implode even faster a rational bubble. The rational bubble explosion or implosion
is proof of the assumption that the stock of assets evolve independently.
The second, more important, shows that the present analysis examines the beginning of bubble
rationally and shows that for reasonable bubble negative such as a bubble inflation sound to begin
the formation of a positive rational bubbles, would also be likely positive. In particular, the absolute
value of the initial set of potential negative rational bubble can not exceed the estimated initial
potential positive rational bubble. This result dramatically expands the theoretical basis for the
prevention of rational bubbles. In particular, from rational utility maximization rule is out deflationary
bubbles and also contrary to the beginning of a rational inflationary bubble. (Behzad, Herschel,
1985, p. 16)
Intrinsic bubbles derived from exogenous economic fundamentals and none other factors. Unlike
the most popular examples of rational bubbles, intrinsic bubbles provide a plausible account of
deviations from the empirical evaluation based on present value. Their potential explanation comes

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in part from their ability to generate persistent deviations that occur relatively stable over long
periods. (Kenneth, Maurice, 1989, p. 3-19)
Contagious bubbles are formed on the markets of countries moving the markets of other countries.
The main objectives of the research in the bubbles were the following:
Highlighting the essence of speculative bubbles;
Detecting peculiarities of their swelling and break mechanisms;
Demonstrating the link between speculative bubbles and financial crises.
Description of the problem

Speculative bubbles are considered temporary market conditions resulting from excessive
demands on the market along with an unfounded increase in the price level of the market. Sensing
a growing trend of prices, purchasing investors creates massive pressure in order to participate in
market profitability. (Bulele speculative , n.d.) These bubbles are usually followed by rapid sales
and prices when starting to decline. Generally a bubble grows slowly, moving gradually to the
climax over a period of several years. After the bubble peaked prices begin to fall and panicked
selling investors create massive pressures leading to a accelerated fall of market prices. Regarding
stock markets financial analysts believe that stock is in a bubble when the stock rates affect the
economy more than exchange rates affect the economy. This can be considered a common feature
of all bubbles in history. Bubbles are a type of investment phenomenon that demonstrates the
fragility of investor psychology. Investors put their hopes so high that they exceed the stock courses
any rational reflection of the real value of those securities. Early that bubbles have no substance at
some point they "bust" and the money invested in these shares is dissipated in the wind. (Bulele
speculative , n.d.)
Using Minsky's concepts can be outlined five stages of a speculative bubble (5 Steps Of A Bubble,
n.d.):
1.Displacement: This stage begins when investors become "lovers" of a new paradigm, and
innovative new technology or interest rates that reached a historic low.
2.Boom: prices start to rise slowly at first due to the movement of investor interest. But gradually,
the growth rate starts to rise, as more and more investors enter the market, thus establishing
the conditions for creating the boom. During this phase, the asset becomes more and more
attention in the media, which contributes to increase the number of interested investors.
Appears then fear not rate players what they think is an opportunity that comes once in life,
feeling that helps to increase even further the number of participants.
3.Euphoria: at this stage, any trace of caution is set aside so that asset price increases very much
in a very short period. Theory of "biggest loser" is available here as possible. Prices start
reaches ridiculous. During this phase, in order to be justified these astronomical prices, are
thrown to the so-called new systems of measurement of value.
4.Profit taking: this stage begins even during the phase of euphoria. Thus, investors who foresee
what will follow beginning to sell and collect huge profits. But estimating the exact time, the
bubble will burst is extremely difficult and dangerous. This break could be caused by a minor
event, but once produced this phenomenon is irreversible.
5.Panic: at this stage, prices start to come down as quickly as they rose. Investors and speculators,
all, want to escape as quickly and at any price the assets, which were in love until recently.
Offer growing rapidly, far exceeds demand, and the inevitable happens.
A basic characteristic of bubbles is the suspension of disbelief by most participants during the
"bubble phase." There is a failure to recognize that regular market participants and other forms of
traders are engaged in a speculative exercise which is not supported by previous valuation
techniques. Also, bubbles are usually identified only in retrospect, after the bubble has burst. In
most cases, an asset price bubble is followed by a spectacular crash in the price of the securities.
In addition, the damage caused by the bursting of a bubble depends on the economic sector/s
involved, and also whether the extent of participation is widespread or localized. (5 Steps Of A
Bubble, n.d.)
Bubbles can be damaging to the wider economy, especially if it is a key market, such as housing or
the stock market. A stock market crash can cause a loss of confidence and lower spending.
(Pettinger, 2013)

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Moreover, a serious problem is the fact that financial bubbles have a tendency to gain ever greater
proportions, moving locally on the international level. And then the "bursting" the systemic crisis
takes place two times. First of all is the onset of turbulence by speculation, whose power has grown
through new financial instruments. Then shock wave propagation occurs in the whole planetary
financial system. This is achieved by spreading contagion because financial markets are highly
interconnected. Based on modern means of communication, information is broadcast almost
immediately from one end to another planet. Each market is influenced by the information common
to all markets. Reactions of operators in a market considered directories are immediately passed
on to other financial markets. This process of propagation and chain repercussions behavior is
amplified by "contagion via mimicry", very common in financial markets. Traders do not base their
decisions on their own criteria, but considering those of others. The events that have no connection
with the financial situation of a country or company can cause a crisis here. (Păun, 2003, p. 28)
Methodology and data sources

Research carried out in the first place was based on the descriptions formation and bursting of over
20 bubbles from different countries contained in various bibliographic sources. After was examined
the existing theoretical concepts and analysts comments on the bubbles. Following was performed
generalization and synthesizing of basic ideas and formulate hypotheses on speculative bubbles
mechanisms, which were tested with the public databases dialing accessible specialized sites on
the Internet. Obtained results were presented in this article.
Results obtained

For the beginning, have been generalized and synthesized main causes of specualtive bubbles:
1. Interest rates
The level of interest rates has a major impact on market mechanisms of financial market and
therefore it becomes an important tool in management training and bursting bubbles.
Radical reduction of interest rates by the monetary authorities of the country usually aims to
stimulate economic growth by increasing the volume of lending.
But along with this, the following processes occur:
•Substantial increase in demand for loans, which may result effectof overcrediting;
•Increasing loan volumes increase the liquidity of the market, which increases the demand volume
of assets traded in the market;
•Reducing lending rates causes lower interest rates on deposits, which has the effect of increasing
demand for alternative investment opportunities.
In the complex, these effects lead to the appearance of new specualtive bubbles and / or stimulate
existing ones. Raising radical interest rates may cause bursting financial bubbles and if the process
now grew, bursting can produce a financial crisis.
2. Liquidity
Excess of liquidity, for example, generated by lax lending policies, prices of certain sectors leads to
inflammation processes, then leading to the collapse of the market.
Increase of liquities exceeds usually gradually and in significant volume of available financial
instruments inevitably leads to the phenomenon of "hot money", which consists in increasing
market competition among investors for placing money excess, which leads to higher prices assets
traded in the market and the gradual reduction of profitability of investments. Thus, high levels of
liquidity generate excessive risk capital allocations in some sectors and speculative bubbles.
3. Psychological factors
Bubbles phenomenon can be explained by the investment psychology and its negative effects.
Often economy slump recorded in various causes such as political or economic instability, natural
disasters, war, etc. All these can not be controlled by the individual investor. However turbulence in
financial markets is often linked to investor’s psychology. Many times the losses of investors on the
stock markets because they are subjective and influenced decisions they take. One of common
errors made by investors everywhere is the fact that their investment decisions are the result of so-
called "group mentality" in accordance with the decisions of others celorlalţi. The dependence

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regarding investment often occurs on stock echange market. Such market problems often stops
investors invest according to their own strategies and accurate evidence-based, and prefer to follow
the path imposed by other investors. According to behavioral finance with as little as an investor
knows the easier it is for it to be affected by the "group mentality." The more ignorant investors
entering the panic quickly thus creating prerequisites for true stock collapse.
We can distinguish two actions caused the "group mentality":
- panic buying: when investors observe a share price increase and without waiting for the share
they buy in the hope of significant profits. They forget to study the "folder" that company and guides
the strategy according to the general opinion of other investors. Trap the fall itself those investors is
limited to the idea that to the extent that an investment seems too profitable to be true, it probably
is.
- panic selling: is the time the speculative bubble that caused the growth of the market unfounded
"break" and investors trying to reduce their losses as much as possible by selling shares. Pressure
to sell shares will only lead to the stock market collapse.
Another problem is psychological extrapolation, which is to design for the future of historical data,
leading to the assumption that prices will increase in the future permanently. Investors usually
extrapolate the future profitability of investments in certain assets, leading to price increases and
the risk of these assets, hoping that they will sell at higher prices. But raising asset prices lead to
too low investment return to the desired placement investors, which requires it to sell assets and
then begin falling prices.
4. Moral hazard
Banks and other companies as financial intermediaries generally have a tendency to behave
irresponsibly. They display a penchant exuberant in their investment decisions, most often taking
huge risks, as the expected profits. It is observed that these institutions have reduced their equity
ratios to extremely low levels, generally less than 10%. As liquidity is economic buffer losses,
financial firms are particularly vulnerable as their margins are lower liquidity. If so vulnerable firms
dominate the market - as is currently the case - then there are high chances of contagion as the
liabilities of any company are often the assets of another. Bankruptcy of one of such large
companies can then trigger a domino effect, subsequent bankruptcies. The entire financial market
dissolves. While economists agree on this basic, the more strongly they disagree about its causes
and remedies. Some seem to believe that the investment decision irresponsible inclination is as
natural as bad weather or death. Financial markets are unstable by nature, because the agents in
these markets would benefit from superior knowledge compared to those of their customers
("information asymmetry") and can enrich their behalf. (Hülsmann)
5. Financial innovations
For the addressed purposes product innovations particularly manifests in the securities market. These
often facilitate access to finance for business issuers, given that the outcome of innovation, securities
become more attractive to investors.
The innovation activity in the securities market can be viewed from two perspectives: from the point of
view of financial market participants innovations serve to optimize financial flows, but can also lead to
increased number of issuers listed above, which may cause the macro economic crisis-even level.
In addition, the emergence of innovations leads to greater interdependence of financial markets
that some non essential crisis phenomenon leads to manifestations on others analog.
6. Other possible causes
Some experts explain specualtive bubbles in connection with inflation and bubbles, in turn, can
cause inflation. There are theories that promote the idea of chaotic bubbles that may occur in
critical situations, the result of the superposition of several economic factors. Other experts say that
bubbles are inevitable consequences specualtive irrational valuation of assets (unconfirmed by
fundamentals). (Chaotic bubble, n.d.)
Based on observation which backed up by 500 years of economic history Jean-Paul Rodrigue
inferred standard evolutionary scenario of a speculative bubble (Figure 1), which is confirmed by
example of South Sea Company Bubble (Figure 2) and Bitcoin Bubble (Figure 3).

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 Figure 1. Main Stages in Bubble
Source: (Rodrigue)

Figure 2. South Sea Company Bubble

Source: (Colombo, 2012)

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 Figure 3. Bitcoin price chart Source: Colombo (2013)
Tests have demonstrated that this model illustrates a unique process, if the intrinsic value of the
underlying asset bubbles tend not increase or diminish.
If the intrinsic value of the asset has a tendency to increase, then we can see trends that repeatedly
shape bubbles.
An example can be presented in the international market of gold (Figure 4). Continued growth in
demand for gold for industrial needs and exhausted traditional gold layers provide an increasing
trend of intrinsic value of gold and a basic upward trend. Meanwhile, the use of gold as investment
shelter (especially during financial crises) and speculative tool generates bubbles, the last of which
recently broke.
A similar process we see on the stock market the United States expressed the dynamics of Dow
Jones Industrial Average Index (Figure 5). Thus, in 2009 we witnessed the formation of a major
financial bubble.
Also, as a consequence of the process of financial internationalization and globalization can be
highlighted specualtive bubbles from different countries, which have made and broken almost
simultaneously.

Figure 4. The dynamics of world prices of ounces of gold from 1973 to 2014 (USD)
Source: http://therealasset.co.uk
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 Figure 5. The dynamics of Dow Jones Industrial Average Index from 1995 to 2014
Source: http://www.marketwatch.com
As an example, can be presented bubbles formed on the stock markets of the USA, France and
Canada in the period of 1995-2003 years (Figure 6).

Figure 6. The dynamics of Stock Indexes from 1980 to 2006

Source: Gurova (2006)
As you can see, there is a positive correlation between Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P/TSX
Composite, NASDAQ and CAC indexes.
Some financial bubbles, which are produced financial crisis, could cause by contagion effect the
bubbles bursting on other markets. For example, the bubbles break from Asian countries and the
international financial crisis in 1997 was one of the factors caused the collapse of the Government
securities market and financial crisis in the Russia in August 1998. These events were one of the
causes of Government securities market falling in Moldova in October 1998.
Studies have demonstrated the enormous importance of market makers and central authorities’
activities in the evolution of speculative bubbles. For example, according to some theories, swelling
and bursting stock market bubble in the USA in 1929 was organized by major American bankers by
margin trade financing finance period of 1927 to 1929 and withdrawn from the market on the eve of
the financial crisis.
Meanwhile, efforts are remarkable financial, economic, administrative and political authorities to
maintain the US's Government Debt bubble that began to form in the early 2000s (Figure 7).
Contrary to the expectations of many experts, in 2012 there had been no breaking the bubbles, but
on the contrary, its growth occurs far.
Following research has established that one of the consequences of the financial bubble bursting is
financial crisis generation. Especially, it can be one of its forms - investment crisis, wich represents
a deadlock situation in developing investment process is driven by the refusal of investors to make
investment opportunities, or lack thereof, and for other specific reasons.

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Investment crisis usually leads to financial market liquidity crisis that precedes, in turn, general
financial crises. Substantial reduction in financial market liquidity often leads to radical loss financial
assets, which are considered by many experts financial crisis. (Financial crisis, n.d.)

Figure 7. US Total Government Debt from 1900 to 2014 (percent GDP)

http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/spending_chart_1900_2019USp_XXs1li111mcn_H0t_US_
Total_Government_Debt
In turn, liquidity dynamics can be characterized by the following (Lobanov, Chugunov, 2003, p. 307-
308):
Liquidity concentration. Markets which are traded instruments can replace each other often
liquidity is concentrated on a small number of active and at the same time, other assets remain
essential less liquid.
Liquidity disappearance on the market. Typically, the concentration of liquidity in one market leads
to the liquidity disappearance on other markets.
Flight to liquidity. This can be considered the migration of liquidity in the markets, which, as
expected, will maintain sufficient liquidity even in times of crisis. If a phenomenon such market
participants are willing to pay a higher premium than usual to invest resources in such assets.
The phenomenon of "runaway liquidity" is usually part of a larger process of flight to quality, as
market participants pay a higher premium for assets that have a lower risk of all forms (and
primarily of the crediting ) times, and observed on the market crisis.
As shown, market liquidity is strongly influenced by investor sentiment and, in our opinion, and
liquidity crises are often caused by seizures investment.
Usually crises resulting investment relatively quickly, but they can exist in a dormant state and not
be so visible, slowly damaging the normal functioning of financial markets and undermining the
foundations of economic growth of the country.
Conclusions
Bubbles are an indispensable element of modern financial system. The research results show
predictable behavior of bubbles, which, to some extent, allows forecasting the financial crisis, which
can serve as an informational support for setting operating strategies for speculators and investors,
and regulators measures of public authorities. At the same time, it should be taken into account
peculiarities of certain types of speculative bubbles and basic behavior of market operators.
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