IHS AUTOMOTIVE

Presentation

Connected Cars: Perspectives to 2025

ihs.com
IHS Automotive Technology
April 27, 2016

Egil Juliussen, Ph.D.

Director Research & Principal Analyst
Egil.Juliussen@IHS.com

© 2016 IHS
 Connected Cars: Perspectives to 2025

 Auto Sales and Motorization

 Infotainment: Growing Platform Importance
 Connected Cars: Opportunities & Threats
 Self-driving Cars vs. Driverless Cars: Revolution
 Summary Perspectives

Egil Juliussen, Ph.D. Director Research & Principal Analyst

© 2016 IHS
Auto Sales by Region
35
Yearly
Auto Sales
30
N. America
25
S. America
W. Europe
20
E/C Europe
#M
China
15
Jp-Kr
India
10
O. A-P
ME/A
5

0
2014 2016 2020 2025
IHS March 2016 light vehicle forecast
© 2016 IHS SOURCE: IHS Automotive
Motorization: Autos In-Use per 1,000 People
900
800
700 USA
600 Brazil
Germany
500 UK
#M
400 Russia
China
300 Japan
200 India
S. Africa
100
0
2005 2010 2015 2020

© 2016 IHS SOURCE: IHS Automotive

 Connected Cars: Perspectives to 2025

 Auto Sales and Motorization

 Infotainment: Growing Platform Importance
 Connected Cars: Opportunities & Threats
 Self-driving Cars vs. Driverless Cars: Revolution
 Summary Perspectives

Egil Juliussen, Ph.D. Director Research & Principal Analyst

© 2016 IHS
 Semiconductor Chip Advances: Auto Impact
2035 Auto Impact
Capabilities • Moore’s Law: 81924X
• DRAM: 2 Tbit
Chip advances will • NAND: 256 Tbit
have tremendous auto 2030 Auto Impact • MCU Speed: 108X
impact even if annual • Moore’s Law: 1024X
• DRAM: 256 Gbit
chip improvements • NAND: 16 Tbit
slow down! • MCU Speed: 36X
2025 Auto Impact
• Moore’s Law: 128X
• DRAM: 64 Gbit
• NAND: 2 Tbit
• MCU Speed: 12X
2020 Auto Impact
• Moore’s Law: 16X
• DRAM: 8 Gbit
• NAND: 256 Gbit
• MCU Speed: 3.5X Take-away:
Automotive System on Chips
2015 Auto Impact (SoC) will have amazing
• Moore’s Law: 1X
• DRAM: 512 Mbit capabilities in a decade or two.
• NAND: 16 Gbit Future software will take full
• MCU Speed: 1X advantage of such capabilities!

© 2016 IHS SOURCE: IHS Automotive

Auto Industry and Software Impact
Every company has a structure similar to phases shown below:
Create Make Market Product Use
• Product idea • Factory control • Product marketing • Payment systems
• Technology R&D • Parts management • Product sales • Customer support
• Product design • Supplier mgmt. • Distribution channels • Warranty & repair
• Product testing • Inventory mgmt. • Delivery logistics • Repeat customers

Software and apps impact all phases of most product

Create Make Market Car Use

• Very expensive • No SW BoM cost • SW=features • Bug-fixing needed
• Long development • Some royalty costs • Features sell cars • SW maintenance
• Difficult testing • Mfg.=SW loading • SW is upgradable • Connected car growth
• Never bug-free • Loading flexibility • Upgradable features • OTA SW updates

Take-away: Lower software development cost is key:

• Re-usable software platforms are needed to lower development costs
• Over-the-air software updates needed for bug fixes & cyber-security
BoM=Bill of Material; SW=Software; OTA=Over-the-Air
© 2016 IHS SOURCE: IHS Automotive
Infotainment: Connected Car vs. Head-Unit
Smart Home Wearables
Mostly via SP Mostly via SP

Head-Units Connected Car

3 main segments 1 or more connections:
• Audio only • Embedded modem
• Display audio • Via Smartphone/MP
• Navigation Driver-Centric
Content OTA
• Internet radio
HMI Tech • Cloud content C-S
• CSD, HUD • Apps
• ICD display Car-Centric Content
• Remote diagnostics
• Speech • OTA software updates
• Gesture • Cyber-security
• VRM

Autonomous Driving
ADAS, SDC, DLC

MP=Mobile Phone; SP=Smartphone; VRM=Vehicle Relationship Management; SDC=Self-Driving Car;

DLC=Driverless Car; OTA=Over-the-Air; C-S=Cyber-Security

© 2016 IHS SOURCE: IHS Automotive

Infotainment Apps: Big Picture
IVI Apps IVI Apps Integrated SP Apps Smartphone
• Downloaded apps • Built-in apps • Apps integration Apps &
• Driver chosen • OEM chosen • OEM chosen Content
• Travel & LBS • Music apps Current Standards Platforms
• Eco apps • Navi-LBS apps • Apple CarPlay • Android
• Social network apps • Telematics apps • Android Auto • iPhone
• Entertainment apps • Search apps • Baidu CarLife • Win Phone 10
• Car-centric apps • CRM apps • Ford AppLink-SDL
• OBDII-based apps • Remote diagnostics • MirrorLink
• UBI apps • OBDII-based apps • SofTec
• SP remote control • Others
IVI HMI Software Platform
• Auto OEM specific
• QNX
IVI Software Platform • GENIVI Linux
• OS Kernel & Middleware • Other Linux
• Microsoft
Hardware Abstraction Layer?
• Equivalent to BIOS in PCs
IVI Hardware Platform
• Atom, ARM, MIPS, others?
IVI HMI Hardware
• Input, Output & Control
© 2016 IHS SOURCE: IHS Automotive
Head-Unit System Trends
Smartphone Navi & LBS
Display Audio are key SP
No-Brand Audio Impact 2021 share: 36%
2015 share: 34% Apps
Navi & Audio
2021 share: 31%
Display Audio Entry
2015 share: 23% Navi
Navi & Audio
2015 share: 22% No-Brand Audio
2021 share: 14%
Branded Audio
Branded Audio 2021 share: 13%
2015 share: 11%
No OEM H-U
No OEM H-U
2015 share: 10%
2021 share: 5%

Audio & Video Audio & Video

2015 share: 0.4% Parked Use Only 2021 share: 0.3%
© 2016 IHS SOURCE: IHS Automotive
Infotainment Portal
Smartphone Apps Integration: Status

CarPlay Android Auto MirrorLink AppLink-SDL

OEMs 16 OEMs 16 OEMs 6 OEMs 2 OEMs
Brands 24 Brands 42 Brands 12 Brands 3 Brands
Key OEMs BMW, Daimler, BMW, Daimler, Daimler Ford
with FCA, GM, FCA, GM, GM Toyota
Availability
Honda, Hyundai, Honda, Hyundai, Honda
Mazda, Mazda, PSA
Mitsubishi, Mitsubishi, Toyota
Nissan, PSA, Nissan, PSA, Volkswagen
Renault, Subaru, Renault, Subaru,
Suzuki, Suzuki,
Volkswagen, Volkswagen,
Volvo Volvo
Car Models 116 122 66 28
SP OS iOS Android Android, Symbian iOS, Android
Apps 30 55 12 12+

SDL=Smart Device Link; SP=Smartphone; OS=Operating System

© 2016 IHS
SOURCE: IHS Automotive
Software Apps & Service Portal
Smartphone Apps Integration: Enabled Autos
160.0 Global Cumulative
Enabled Car Sales
140.0

120.0

100.0
MirrorLink
#M 80.0 Apple CarPlay
Android Auto
60.0
Ford AppLink
40.0
AppLink does not
20.0 include SDL
(Toyota to use)
0.0
2015 2016 2018 2020 2022
Others not included: Baidu CarLife; Abalta Weblink, Airbiquity Choreo, Nuance Dragon
Drive Link, SofTec, UIEvolution Cloud Connect, VNC
© 2016 IHS
SOURCE: IHS Automotive
Software Apps & Service Portal
 Connected Cars: Perspectives to 2025

 Auto Sales and Motorization

 Infotainment: Growing Platform Importance
 Connected Cars: Opportunities & Threats
 Self-driving Cars vs. Driverless Cars: Revolution
 Summary Perspectives

Egil Juliussen, Ph.D. Director Research & Principal Analyst

© 2016 IHS
Connected Car Technologies Overview

Cellular 3G-3.5G 4.5G LTE Advanced

Systems
2G-2.5G 4G LTE 5G
Analog-1G White Space
Unused TV Spectrum
DSRC-V2X
Short- Keyless RF 5.9 GHz band
Range IEEE 802ac/ad
Wireless
Tech Wi-Fi: IEEE 802a/b/g/n
Bluetooth NFC Bluetooth Smart 4.1, 4.2
GPS Mobile TV Competition
Broadcast for data
Signals FM Radio Digital Radio: HD; DAB-DMB going to the
car
AM Radio Satellite Radio

2005 2015 2025

Mobile TV mostly in Japan, Korea & China; Satellite Radio mostly in N. America
© 2016 IHS SOURCE: IHS Automotive
Connected Car Trends: U.S. & EU
U.S. Trends EU Trends
Embedded Leading technology Waiting for eCall to fire up
Telematics Remote diagnostic most valuable Mostly for high-end autos
LTE deployment going fast eCall main app initially
Smartphone Ford success, followed by others Limited success so far
Telematics Will leverage phone projection Success via phone projection
Embedded & Growing rapidly Emerging in most countries
Smartphone Long-term winner Long-term winner
Phone Very important in next 5 years Very important in next 5 years
Projection CarPlay & Android Auto to lead CarPlay & AA to lead
Qs: MirrorLink? AppLink-SDL? Qs: MirroLink? SofTec?
OTA SW Emerging for telematics Emerging for telematics
Update Infotainment OTA is next Mostly luxury brands
Core ECU OTA emerging May lag U.S. by 2-4 years
Cyber Finally getting attention Strong R&D, little deployment
Security OEMs scrambling to catch up Orderly deployment coming
Laws & regulation on the way Laws & regulation expected
AA=Android Auto; OTA=Over-the-Air
© 2016 IHS
SOURCE: IHS Automotive
Software Apps & Service Portal
Connected Car Trends: U.S. & A-P
U.S. Trends AP Trends
Embedded Leading tech approach Leading approach in China
Telematics Remote diagnostic most valuable Weak in most other regions
LTE deployment coming fast LTE emerging first in China
Smartphone Ford success, followed by others Leading approach in Japan
Telematics Will leverage phone projection Future growth in China
Embedded Growing rapidly Grows with Smartphone
& SP Long-term winner Long-term winner in most areas
Phone Very important in next 5 years CP & AA important in Jp & Kr
Projection CarPlay & Android Auto to lead CarLife important in China
Qs: MirrorLink? AppLink-SDL? China Qs: Local AA? ML? SDL?
OTA SW Emerging for telematics OTA to be important in Jp & Kr
Update Infotainment OTA is next Cn: GM, BMW etc. to lead
Core ECU OTA emerging AP may lag U.S. by 3-5 years
Cyber Finally getting attention Getting attention in Jp & Kr
Security OEMs scrambling to catch up Need attention in Cn & In
Laws & regulation on the way Laws & regulation expected

© 2016 IHS
SOURCE: IHS Automotive
Software Apps & Service Portal
Connected Car Trends
No Telematics
2015 share: 45% Hybrid Telematics
2021 share: 30%

Phone HFI Only No Telematics

2015 share: 27% 2021 share: 25%

CE Telematics
2021 share: 18%
Embedded Telematics
Embedded Telematics 2021 share: 16%
2015 share: 12%
Phone HFI Only
CE Telematics
2021 share: 11%
2015 share: 10%
Hybrid Telematics
2015 share: 7% CE Telematics use mobile phone for connection
Global yearly sales share
SOURCE: IHS Automotive
© 2016 IHS
Infotainment Portal
Connected Car Attach Rate
100 % of
Light
90 Vehicle
80 Sales

70 U.S.
60 WE
De
% 50
Cn
40 Jp
30 In
Global
20
10
0
2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

Includes connected car services via embedded modem, Smartphone & both
© 2016 IHS
SOURCE: IHS Automotive
Infotainment Portal
LTE Share: Embedded Telematics Sales

100
90
80
70
60 NA
% 50 WE
AP
40
WW
30
20
10
0
2014 2015 2017 2019 2022
GM’s USA deployment of LTE will kick-start market: GM volume will lower auto-grade LTE chip price
© 2016 IHS SOURCE: IHS Automotive
Who Benefits from Connected Cars?

Segment Benefit Areas

OEMs Cost savings: Remote diagnostics & Remote software upgrades
New revenue from future functional software upgrades
Suppliers Revenue from communication & HMI hardware
Revenue from connected car software: middleware & apps
TSPs Revenue from safety & car-centric services: Base service
Revenue from infotainment-centric services: New opportunities
MNOs Revenue from growing amount of data to and from the car
Revenue from being a TSP and/or content provider
Content Many entertainment categories: music & audio as leaders
Providers Many information categories: LBS-relates as leader
Many new categories emerging
Car Data Mostly TSP-centric data, traffic info & insurance-centric data
Consumption Many new categories emerging: OBDII data, V2X & others
Driver & Cost savings similar to OEMs, higher resale value w/RD history
Passengers Connected car apps value: cost savings, safety & convenience
Access to vast infotainment content portfolios
HMI=Human Machine Interface; TSP=Telematics Service Provider; MNO=Mobile Network Operator
© 2016 IHS SOURCE: IHS Automotive
Automotive Software Mega-Trends
External SP, PC & CE Semiconductor Software Cyber-Security
Factors Products Chip Advances Recalls Threats

SP Apps Connected Hardware ECU HSM

Emerging Integration Car Modularity Domains MCUs
Solutions
ISO 26262 Software Open OTA SW Layers: SW
Software Platforms Source SW Updates Security

Internal Software SW Life- Time to Feature Autonomous

Factors Reliability Cycle Costs Market Obsolescence Driving Tech
SP=Smartphone; CE=Consumer Electronics; HSM=Hardware Security Module; SW=Software;
OTA=Over The Air
© 2016 IHS
SOURCE: IHS Automotive
Software Apps & Service Portal
Auto Software Complexity Path
“Embedded Controllers” “Apps Computers”
• Simple SW control program • Complex operating system
• Fixed middleware 10X-100X Complexity • Computer middleware
• Fixed function app or apps • Industry-specific middleware
• BoM cost minimization • Multiple changeable apps
• LoC* counted in thousands • LoC* counted in millions

IVI H-U IVI H-U IVI H-U

2005 2015 2020

ADAS ADAS SDC

ECUs L2 & L3 L4 & L5
2015 2020 2025
Complex Complex Domain
ECUs ECUs ECUs
2000 2015 2020
Simple Simple
ECUs ECUs
2000 2015
Software Complexity
© 2016 IHS LoC=Lines of Code; SDC=Self-Driving Car SOURCE: IHS Automotive
Infotainment OS Trends

60
IVI OS
Market Share
50

WE-QNX
40 WE-Linux
USA-QNX
% 30 USA-Linux
China-QNX
20 China-Linux
WW-QNX
WW-Linux
10
All H-U &
Telematics
0 Linux versions
2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 included

© 2016 IHS WE=Western Europe; WW=Worldwide SOURCE: IHS Automotive

OTA Software Update Evolution

Core ECU Re-flashing Dealer Re-flash OTA “VPN” OTA &

SW Update At Dealers Recall-Centric Tesla Cyber-Security

Infotainment Re-flashing Apps Feature & OTA & Cyber-

SW Update At Dealers OTA OS FOTA Security

iPhone-Android OTA iPhone Android OTA

Smartphones OS & Apps Update Apps/Security-Centric

SW Patches OTA Monthly OTA: OS & Apps

PCs Magnetic Media Windows XP Security-Centric

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

OTA=Over The Air
© 2016 IHS
SOURCE: IHS Automotive
Software Apps & Service Portal
OTA Software Update Advantages

Key Information Other Information

Cost Dealer cost is $70-100 per OTA could save 50%
Savings software update event IT investment delays ROI
Lower notification costs Electronic notification
Time Quicker preparation time No dealer appointment
Savings Less notification time No mailing expected
Recall 70% dealer recall completion Many unsafe cars on road
Completion OTA should do much better OTA completion? 90%+
Future Value of functional updates Mostly aftermarket now
Business A portion will pay for this Future OEM revenue stream

© 2016 IHS
SOURCE: IHS Automotive
Software Apps & Service Portal
OTA Software Update Segments

What Is Updated OEM Deployment

Infotainment Head-unit apps Toyota, Chrysler
Apps Telematics apps Chrysler brands, Infiniti
Infotainment Telematics software BMW, GM, M-B, Ford
Software Head-unit software Mercedes-Benz
Including operating system Emerging now
Core Auto Powertrain ECU software Public: Tesla* since 2012
ECUs Chassis ECU software Emerging: 2017+
Convenience ECU software Required: 2020+
Navigation Map software Japan OEMs in Japan;
Map POI database BMW, Audi, Tesla & others
Autonomous Driving Map Future AD Map required

*Tesla added hardware for L2-L3 autonomy in model D in November

2014, but software & apps where downloaded in October 2015
Adds new level of future proofing!
© 2016 IHS
SOURCE: IHS Automotive
Software Apps & Service Portal
Over-the-Air Software Update Forecast

45
OTA Auto
40 Sales

35
30
Infotainment SW
25
#M HU Apps
20 Map Updates
TCU Software
15
Core ECU SW
10
5
0
2015 2017 2020 2022 TCU=Telematics
Control Unit
© 2016 IHS SOURCE: IHS Automotive
Auto Cyber-Security: Complacency  Action
Age of Cyber-Security
• Check current systems
• Weakness identification
• Any apps & content
• Best practice  standards
• Every RFQ with cyber-security
• Product portfolio growth
• OEM-T1 expertise acquisition

Proof of Concept Stage Mass Deployment

• White-hat hackers • First for connected cars
• Skills & expertise needed • New system architecture
• Wired connection hacking • Next for control ECUs
• Wireless hacking events • New innovative products
• Combined with OTA
Complacency Stage
• No need for security
• No actual breaches
• Too expensive
• Will not happen to us
2010 2015 2020 2025

© 2016 IHS
SOURCE: IHS Automotive
Infotainment Portal
 Connected Cars: Perspectives to 2025

 Auto Sales and Motorization

 Infotainment: Growing Platform Importance
 Connected Cars: Opportunities & Threats
 Self-driving Cars vs. Driverless Cars: Revolution
 Summary Perspectives

Egil Juliussen, Ph.D. Director Research & Principal Analyst

© 2016 IHS
 Current State of the Art & Announced Plans

5
No details known

4 Limited drive via remote driver control

3 “Autonomous by 2020”
announcements

2
Many incremental and evolutionary steps within Level 2

NHTSA 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

LEVEL OF
AUTOMATION
(L5 = IHS)
IHS Level 4: Fully autonomous with driver controls SOURCE: IHS Automotive
© 2016 IHS
IHS Level 5: Fully autonomous without driver controls
2 Autonomous Driving Strategies

Focus: Level 4 Vehicles Level 5 Vehicles

Autonomy  Self-driving
car mode  Driverless car mode only
Levels  Human driving mode  No driving controls

Business  Traditional
car ownership  Car-as-a-Service
(CaaS)
Models  Car-as-a-Product (CaaP)  Some car ownership

Proponents  Mercedes-Benz  Google, Uber, Lyft, Didi, Ola

 Otherluxury brands  Fleet operators (taxi etc.)
 Volume OEMs  Some OEMs (Ford, GM)

Advantages Fewer accidents Fewer accidents

Time, space & privacy* Mobility to anyone
Evolution from ADAS Mobility to anything

Implications Driver
license for HDC Nodriver license needed
Some degree of CaaS? CaaS for nearly all people

Summary Cars to make drivers better Cars are better than drivers
* Mercedes-Benz SDC positioning
© 2016 IHS
SOURCE: IHS Automotive
Autonomous Driving Portal
Google SDC & DLC Success
Key Information Comments
Highway L4 Cars since 2009 Driven 880K+ miles
Testing-L4 L4: Now driving assertively Inch forward at 4-way stops

L4 City L4: Mostly in Mt. View, CA Driven 620K+ miles

Testing L4: Started in Austin, TX July 2015 (12 cars in Dec)

L5 Pod Initially restricted area tests In Google’s restricted areas

Testing June start in Mt. View (L4 mode) Sep 2015 start in Austin, TX

Restricted NASA Moffett Field (1,000 acres) 60 year lease: Google projects
Testing Castle AF Base, Merced, CA L4 & L5 tests on 100 acres

Vehicles 23 Lexus RX450h SUVs Mt. View-15; Austin-7; Kirkland-1

(Mar 31, 33 Pod cars (L5 or L4 mode) Mt. View-24; Austin-7; Kirkland-2
2016) Total self-driving miles: 1.5M Self-driving miles/week: 12-15K
SDC simulation & modeling 3M miles/day; test new SW

Next Seattle-area & Detroit-area tests Rain, snow & bad weather
Steps Cooperative driving situations 4-way stops is first step
Lower crashes by other drivers SDC external info? What else?

© 2016 IHS SOURCE: IHS Automotive

Google SDC-DLC Software
Key Information Comments
Estimated Better than nearly all drivers—at Faster reaction time, never
Status least in fair weather driving tired, never distracted, superior
Fewer emergencies object tracking capabilities
Know common driver weaknesses From 1.5M miles in SDC mode

Next Finding and learning the once in a Google has active projects to
Focus million events identify such events
Key Other drivers’ negative reaction SDC-DLC follow all laws!
Problems Other cars run into SDC-DLCs SDC driving style too different
Computer ethics? Different views on its impact

Next Cooperative driving situations 4-way stops is first step

Steps Lower crashes by other drivers SDC external info? What else?
Bad weather testing & learning Solutions in due time

Key Question:
How much better than the best drivers will DLC software need to be for deployment?

© 2016 IHS
SOURCE: IHS Automotive
Autonomous Driving Portal
Mobility Implications
Key Information Other Information
Car  Smartphone apps centric  Convenience & availability
Sharing  DLC lowers operating cost  No driver costs
 DLC fleets for car-sharing  Likely first SDC deployment

Car  Fewer cars/household when  USA currently:2.1 cars/HH

Ownership SDCs are fully available  USA projected: 1.2 w/SDCs*
 Higher miles per car year  Quicker replacement rate

Car-as-a-  Worldwide population  2015: 7.32B  2035: 8.74B

Service  People with driver license  2015: 1.13B  2035: 1.9B
Potential  People w/o driver license  2015: 6.2B  2035: 6.8B
 Urban population  2015: 4.1B  2035: 5.7B
 Seniors (65+ years old)  2015: 604M  2035: 1.12B
 Youth (Under 18 years old)  2015: 2.26B  2035: 2.36B

Mass  SDC for last mile service  Tofill mass transit gaps
Transit  SDV for new mass transit  Less cost than mass transit
 SDV as mass transit  Current system competition

© 2016 IHS * UMTRI study, February 2015 SOURCE: IHS Automotive

Autonomous Driving Portal
Autonomous Driving Evolution
Car-as-a Service (CaaS) Era
L5 DLC: No Restricted Small-Scale, Low- CaaS Low- Full
Driver Controls Testing Speed CaaS Speed Dep. Deployment
L4 SDC: With Restricted Testing Small-Scale Volume Full
Driver Control Google, OEMs & T1s Deployment Deployment Deployment

Auto Pilot: Highway

L3
Auto Pilot: Parking
L3
L3 Auto Pilot: Traffic Jam

L2 Traffic Jam Assist

L1 Autonomous Braking

L1 Lane Keep Assist

L1 Adaptive Cruise Control

L0 Driver Assist Warning

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

© 2016 IHS
SOURCE: IHS Automotive Autonomous Driving Portal
 Connected Cars: Perspectives to 2025

 Auto Sales and Motorization

 Infotainment: Growing Platform Importance
 Connected Cars: Opportunities & Threats
 Self-driving Cars vs. Driverless Cars: Revolution
 Summary Perspectives

Egil Juliussen, Ph.D. Director Research & Principal Analyst

© 2016 IHS
 New Auto Industry Competition
Current Competition Future Competition
OS & MW SDC & DLC SW
OTA SW Update SDC Maps
ADAS SW
Auto Industry
Ride Sharing: • Infotainment New EV-based
Smartphone • Cloud Content Auto OEMs
App-based
• Connected Car
• Software-centric
Phone Projection • ADAS  SDC DLC-based
CarPlay, AA, ML CaaS Fleets
• Mobility-centric
• ICE  EV
Virtual Mobility Mobility Service
Telecommuting. for Non-Drivers
E-commerce, etc. & Packages

OS=Operating System; MW=Middleware; OTA=Over-the-Air; ICE=Internal Combustion Engine; SW=Software;

SDC=Self-Driving Car; DLC=Driverless Car; CaaS=Car-as-a-Service; AA=Android Auto; ML=MirrorLink
© 2016 IHS SOURCE: IHS Automotive
Connected Car by 2020+

Wi-Fi, BT Wi-Fi, BT
3G to 4G 3G to 4G Wearable
Devices in Devices Data Plan &
Cloud
OBDII Device AM Device(s) & around Embedded Content
W/wo Wireless W/wo Wireless Car 4.5G
BT 4.2 4.5G
OBDII CAN Wi-Fi Direct

BT Smart 4.2 Smartphone

Auto Embedded Core Auto Infotainment Apps
Wi-Fi or USB Integration
OEM 4.5G (VRM) ECUs ECUs
& Data Plan
V2V
ADAS & Convenience
Other BT 4.2,
AD ECUs ECUs Wi-Fi or Tablet-
Autos DSRC
USB based RSE
V2I BT 4.2 and/or NFC
Roadside
ITS DSRC
Key Smartphone
• Software upgrades via Fob BT 4.2 Apps
Ethernet network to all
ECUs in car? RSE=Rear Seat Entertainment
• Secure, ECU software
distribution system Embedded links: from shared to separate

© 2016 IHS SOURCE: IHS Automotive

 Connected Car Revolution
Capabilities
Connected SDC-DLC
Connected cars are the halfway point • 5G: Gbps
• Secure connections
on a journey from simple and rare • Any apps & content
telematics use, to self-driving cars with • Connections: Required
required, multiple and constant • Car-as-a-Service
connections over secure wireless links

LTE Connected
• 4G LTE: Mbps
• Multiple connections
• Apps & cloud content
• Connections: Common

Telematics
• 1G Analog
• Speed: Kbps
• Safety-Security Connected cars create new
• Available: Rare challenges: cyber-security

2000 2015 2030

Kbps-Mbps-Gbps=Kilo-Mega-Giga bits per second; SDC=Self-Driving Car; DLC=Driverless Car
© 2016 IHS SOURCE: IHS Automotive
 Software-Defined Car Evolution

The car is the most Self-Driving Car

complex product in Connected Car Software-defined car
volume production! Remote SW Upgrades
Software security
Car-as-a-Service
Tesla is
first SW-
Digital Car Era defined
AUTOSAR Platform architecture car
Remote Diagnostics Re-usable software
Software APIs

Analog-Digital Car Era

ECUs Digital control system growth

Next 20 Year HW Improvements

Analog Car Era • MCU performance: 400 times
Analog control systems • Memory chip: 32,000 times
1995 2005 2015 2025 2035
© 2016 IHS SOURCE: IHS Automotive
 Questions?

Egil Juliussen, Ph.D. Research

Director, Principal Analyst,
IHS Automotive Technology
April 27, 2016
egil.juliussen@ihs.com

© 2016 IHS