Inflation Monitor

September 2019
(Old Base: 2007-08)

State Bank of Pakistan

Statistics & DWH Department
ISSN 1992-8327 (print)

ISSN 1992-8335 (online)

The analysis in this document is based on data

 Provided by Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), for domestic inflation

analysis
 Retrieved from IMF & World Bank websites for global inflation analysis

http://www.sbp.org.pk/publications/inflation_Monitor

ii
 Contents Page
1. Inflation in Brief ………………………………………………… 1
2. City- wise Inflation …………………………………….................... 7
3. Income Group- wise Inflation …………………………………………………. 8
4. Weighted Contribution ………………………………………………… 10
5. Inflation Diffusion Index ………………………………………………… 11
6. Domestic Commodity Prices ………………………………………………… 12
7. Global Commodity Prices ………………………………………………… 12
8. Seasonal Adjustment in CPI ………………………………………………... 13
Annexure A
Table A1 CPI Inflation by Groups 17
Table A2 Distribution of Price Changes (YoY) of CPI Basket 17
Table A3 Top and Bottom Fifteen Contributors to CPI Inflation (YoY) 18
Table A3.1 Top and Bottom Fifteen Contributors to CPI Inflation (MoM) 19
Table A3.2 Top Fifteen Contributors to CPI Inflation (YoY) 20
Table A3.3 Top Ten Contributors to CPI Food Inflation (YoY) 21
Table A3.4 Top Ten Contributors to CPI Non-Food Inflation (YoY) 22
Table A4 Distribution of Price Changes (YoY) - Selected CPI Items 23
Table A5 City-wise CPI Inflation by Income Groups 24
Table A6 City- wise CPI Inflation (YoY) 25
Table A7 Income Group-wise Inflation 26
Table A8 SPI Item-wise Price Movements 27
Table A9 Distribution of Price Changes (YoY)-WPI Items 28
Table A10 Consumer Price Index by Major Groups and Composite
Commodities 29-30
Table A11 Wholesale Price Index by Major Groups and Composite Commodities 31-32
Table A12 Price Indices 33
Table A13 International Commodity Prices/ Indices 34
Table A14 CPI Data Series- Original and Seasonally Adjusted 35
Table A15 CPI Food Data Series- Original and Seasonally Adjusted 36
Table A16 CPI Monthly & Average Seasonal Factors 37
Table A17 CPI Food Monthly & Average Seasonal Factors 37
Table A18 CPI Month-on-Month % Change- Original & Seasonally Adjusted 38
Table A19 CPI Food Month-on-Month % Change- Original & Seasonally Adjusted 39
Figure A1 CPI Non-food Inflation 40
Figure A2 Frequency Distribution of Price Changes of CPI Items - YoY 41
Figure A2.1 Frequency Distribution of Price Changes of CPI Items - MoM 42
Figure A3 Frequency Distribution of Price Changes of WPI Commodities - YoY 43
Figure A4 Group- wise/overall Inflation Diffusion Index and Respective/ Overall YoY
Inflation 44
Annexure B Technical Notes 45-48
Inflation Monitor, September 2019

Team

 Muhammad Abdus Salam Joint Director

muhammad.abdussalam@sbp.org.pk

 Mazhar Hussain Sr. Joint Director

mazhar.hussain@sbp.org.pk

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 State Bank of Pakistan

Review

Inflation in Brief

1. Headline CPI inflation (2007-08=100) is recorded at level of 12.5 percent on

year-on-year basis in September 2019 as compared to 11.6 percent in the
previous month and 5.1 percent during corresponding month of last year.

2. CPI inflation on month-on-month basis is recorded at level of 0.8 percent in

September 2019 as compared to 1.4 percent in the previous month and -0.1
percent during corresponding month of last year. Seasonally adjusted month-
on-month CPI inflation is recorded at 0.78 percent in September 2019
compared to 1.34 percent in the previous month.

3. Core inflation (trimmed) on year-on-year basis is recorded at 9.2 percent in

September 2019 as compared to 8.5 percent in the previous month and 5.8
percent during corresponding month of last year.

4. On month-on-month basis, the Core inflation (trimmed) is recorded at 0.5

percent in September 2019 as compared to 0.6 percent in the previous month
and 0.1 percent during corresponding month of last year.

5. CPI Core inflation, Non-food, non-energy (NFNE), on year-on-year basis is

recorded at 8.2 percent in September 2019 and was at same level in the
previous month and 8.0 percent during corresponding month of last year.

6. Core inflation (NFNE) on month-on-month basis recorded at 0.4 percent in

September 2019 as compared to 0.5 percent in the previous month. Core
NFNE inflation was at same level during the corresponding month of last
year.

7. WPI inflation on year-on-year basis recorded at 15.6 percent in September

2019 as compared to 13.6 percent in the previous month and 9.2 percent
during the corresponding month of last year.

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Inflation Monitor, September 2019

8. WPI inflation on month-on-month basis recorded at 0.3 percent in September

2019 as compared to 0.9 percent in the previous month. It was -1.5 percent in
the corresponding month of last year.

9. SPI inflation on year-on-year basis recorded at 19.8 percent in September

2019 as compared to 18.3 percent in the previous month. It was 2.2 percent
in the corresponding month of last year.

10. SPI inflation on month-on-month basis recorded at 1.1 percent in September

2019 as compared to 2.9 percent in the previous month. It was -0.2 percent in
the corresponding month of last year.

1.1 Another Measure of Core Inflation

A new method of permanently excluding the relatively volatile commodities from

CPI basket in Pakistan has been developed by SBP. This is achieved by making use
of trimming approach on historical data of monthly CPI changes to compute a
Relatively Stable Component of CPI (RSC-CPI) as a new measure of core inflation.
This method ensures inclusion of both food and non-food commodities that show
persistent price behavior in Pakistan (see technical notes for details). Developments
in core inflation measured by RSC- CPI for the month of September 2019 are
described below:

11. Core RSC inflation on year-on-year basis is recorded at 10.7 percent in

September 2019 as compared to 10.5 percent in the previous month and 7.0
percent during the corresponding month of last year.

12. Core RSC inflation on month-on-month basis is recorded at 0.5 percent in

September 2019 as compared to 0.6 percent in the previous month and 0.3
percent during the corresponding month of last year.

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 State Bank of Pakistan

Monthly CPI, WPI and SPI data is summarized in the following table.

Table 1.1 Inflation Trends (percent) (Base 2007- 08 = 100)

CPI Inflation Core Inflation
WPI
SPI***
Inflation
Non- Inflation
General Food NFNE* Trimmed RSC**
food
Period
100.00 37.48 62.52 53.52 80.00 67.69 100.00 100.00

YoY MoM YoY MoM YoY MoM YoY MoM YoY MoM YoY MoM YoY MoM YoY MoM

Sep-18 5.1 -0.1 1.3 -0.7 7.7 0.3 8.0 0.4 5.8 0.1 7.0 0.3 9.2 -1.5 2.2 -0.2

Oct-18 6.8 2.3 2.7 1.9 9.6 2.6 8.2 1.1 6.7 0.8 8.7 2.4 13.1 4.2 4.5 3.0

Nov-18 6.5 0.1 1.8 -0.5 9.8 0.5 8.3 0.4 6.7 0.3 8.9 0.4 13.5 0.7 5.3 1.3

Dec-18 6.2 -0.4 0.9 -1.4 9.8 0.2 8.4 0.3 6.9 0.3 9.0 0.2 12.1 -0.9 5.5 -0.1

Jan-19 7.2 1.0 2.4 0.3 10.4 1.4 8.7 1.1 7.7 1.0 9.4 1.0 9.9 -0.2 6.7 0.4

Feb-19 8.2 0.6 5.0 1.4 10.3 0.1 8.8 0.2 7.7 0.2 9.4 0.2 11.0 0.9 10.0 2.2

Mar-19 9.4 1.4 8.4 2.9 10.1 0.5 8.5 0.5 7.9 0.4 9.2 0.4 12.6 1.7 12.0 1.6

Apr-19 8.8 1.3 8.6 1.7 9.0 1.0 7.0 1.0 7.2 0.9 8.0 0.9 13.8 2.3 12.4 1.0

May-19 9.1 0.8 8.7 1.1 9.4 0.6 7.2 0.4 7.5 0.4 8.1 0.4 14.0 1.4 13.1 1.2

Jun-19 8.9 0.4 8.2 0.4 9.3 0.4 7.2 0.3 7.3 0.4 8.4 0.6 12.7 0.3 12.9 1.4

Jul-19 10.3 2.3 9.2 1.5 11.1 2.8 7.8 1.7 8.0 1.7 10.3 2.7 13.5 3.1 14.8 2.2

Aug-19 11.6 1.4 11.9 2.6 11.5 0.6 8.2 0.5 8.5 0.6 10.5 0.6 13.6 0.9 18.3 2.9

Sep-19 12.5 0.8 14.3 1.5 11.4 0.2 8.2 0.4 9.2 0.5 10.7 0.5 15.6 0.3 19.8 1.1

* NFNE is Non-food non-energy ** Relatively Stable Component of CPI *** SPI for all income groups combined

3
4
10
15
20
10
15

-5
0
-5

5
0
5

10

-5
0
5
Sep-18 Sep-18 Sep-18

a: CPI

e: WPI
c: NFNE
Oct-18 Oct-18 Oct-18
Nov-18 Nov-18 Nov-18
Dec-18 Dec-18 Dec-18
Jan-19 Jan-19 Jan-19
Feb-19 Feb-19 Feb-19
Mar-19 Mar-19 Mar-19
Apr-19 Apr-19 Apr-19
May-19 May-19 May-19
Jun-19 Jun-19 Jun-19
Jul-19 Jul-19 Jul-19
Inflation Monitor, September 2019

Aug-19 Aug-19 Aug-19

Sep-19 Sep-19 Sep-19

0
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
0
1
2
3

-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
-3
-2
-1
-3
-2
-1

-5
0
5

-5
0
5
10
15

10

10
15
20

-5
0
5
Sep-18 Sep-18 Sep-18

f: SPI
Oct-18 Oct-18 Oct-18
Nov-18 Nov-18
b: CPI Food

Nov-18
Fig 1.1: Summary of Inflation Trends

Dec-18 Dec-18 Dec-18

Jan-19 Jan-19 Jan-19
d: 20% Trimmed Mean

Feb-19 Feb-19 Feb-19

Mar-19 Mar-19 Mar-19
Apr-19 Apr-19 Apr-19
May-19 May-19 May-19
YoY

Jun-19 Jun-19 Jun-19

Jul-19 Jul-19 Jul-19
Aug-19 Aug-19 Aug-19
MoM

Sep-19 Sep-19 Sep-19

0
1
2
3

0
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4

-3
-2
-1

-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
-4
-3
-2
-1
 10
15
20
25
10
15

-5
-5

0
5
0
5
10
15

-5
0
5
Sep-17
Sep-17

a: CPI

d: WPI
b: NFNE
Nov-17
Oct-17
Jan-18
Nov-17
Mar-18
Dec-17
May-18
Jan-18
Jul-18
Feb-18
Sep-18
Mar-18
Nov-18
Apr-18
Jan-19
May-18
Mar-19
Jun-18
May-19

Jul-19 Jul-18

Sep-19 Aug-18

Sep-18

10
15

-5
0
5

10
15
20
25

-5
0
5
Oct-18
Sep-17

e: SPI
Nov-18
Nov-17
Dec-18
YoY

Jan-18
Jan-19
Mar-18
Feb-19
Fig 1.2:Movements in Price Indices (percent)

May-18
c: 20% Trimmed Mean

Jul-18 Mar-19

Sep-18 Apr-19
Nov-18 May-19
12mma

Jan-19 Jun-19
Mar-19
Jul-19
May-19
Aug-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Sep-19
State Bank of Pakistan

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6
-4
-2
0
2
4

-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
-4
-2
0
2
4
Sep-16
Sep-16

a: CPI

d: WPI
Dec-16

b: NFNE
Mar-17 Nov-16

Jun-17
Jan-17
Sep-17
Dec-17 Mar-17

Mar-18 May-17
Jun-18
Sep-18 Jul-17

Dec-18 Sep-17
Inflation Monitor, September 2019

Mar-19
Nov-17
Jun-19
Sep-19 Jan-18

-4
-2
0
2
4

-4
-2
0
2
4
Mar-18
Sep-16

e: SPI
May-18
Dec-16
Mar-17 Jul-18

Jun-17
Sep-18
Sep-17
Nov-18
c: 20% Trimmed Mean

Dec-17
Fig 1.3:Movements in Price Indices -MoM ( percent)

Mar-18 Jan-19
Jun-18
Mar-19
Sep-18
Dec-18 May-19
Mar-19
Jul-19
Jun-19
Sep-19 Sep-19
 State Bank of Pakistan

Fig 1.4: Trends in Consumer Price Inflation

a: Consumer Price Index b: CPI Inflation (YoY)
270
14
Consumer Price Index (2007-08=100).

260
12
250
10

Percent
240
8
230 6
220 4
210 2
200 0
April
February
September
July

August

December
October

March

February
June
January

May
November

August

December
October

March

April
January

May

June
November
July

September
2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20

c: Inflation Build-up over June MoM Seasonally Adjusted Growth Rates

10 2.5
9
2.0
8
7 1.5
Percent

6
5 1.0
4
3 0.5
2
0.0
1
0 -0.5
April
July

August

February
September

December

March
October

June
January

May
November

October

April

June
July

May
August

November

January

March
September

December

February

2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20

2. City wise Inflation

CPI Inflation on year-on-year basis in federal and provincial capitals of Pakistan

showed mixed trend during September 2019. Among these five cities, the lowest
inflation was observed in Lahore at 9.9 percent while the highest inflation was
observed in Karachi at 15.7 percent (Table A6 of annexure-A).

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Inflation Monitor, September 2019

Table 2.1 City-wise Inflation of Selected Cities (percent)

Sep-18 Aug-19 Sep-19
MoM YoY MoM YoY MoM YoY
Overall CPI -0.1 5.1 1.4 11.6 0.8 12.5

Islamabad 0.2 4.9 1.6 11.2 0.7 11.7

Karachi -0.7 3.8 1.2 12.8 1.9 15.7

Lahore -0.3 4.1 1.7 9.4 0.2 9.9

Peshawar -0.1 6.6 1.6 12.0 0.9 13.1

Quetta -0.3 7.1 1.3 13.7 0.1 14.2

3. Income Group wise Inflation

Income group-wise data shows that the highest income group (above Rs. 35,000)
witnessed higher inflation as compared to other quintiles in non-food group and
income group (Rs. 18,001- 35,000) witnessed higher inflation as compared to other
quintiles in overall CPI during September 2019. The lowest income group (Up to Rs.
8,000) observed lowest inflation in CPI during the month of September 2019 and the
income group (above Rs. 35,000) witnessed lower inflation as compared to other
quintiles in food group during September 2019 (Table A7 of annexure-A).

Table 3.1 Income Group- wise Inflation (YoY) (percent)

General Food Non-food
Income Groups Sep-18 Aug-19 Sep-19 Sep-18 Aug-19 Sep-19 Sep-18 Aug-19 Sep-19

All Groups Combined 5.1 11.6 12.5 1.3 11.9 14.3 7.7 11.5 11.4

Up to Rs. 8,000 3.2 10.7 12.2 0.3 12.3 15.1 6.9 8.9 8.9

Rs. 8,001- 12,000 3.7 11.2 12.5 0.6 12.1 14.8 6.9 10.4 10.3

Rs. 12,001- 18,000 4.1 11.2 12.4 0.9 12.1 14.7 7.1 10.3 10.2

Rs. 18,001- 35,000 4.7 11.8 12.8 1.2 12.2 14.7 7.6 11.5 11.4

Above Rs. 35,000 6.1 12.1 12.7 2.0 11.4 13.7 8.1 12.4 12.2

Note: Computed based on CPI indices of five Income Quintiles released by Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS)

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 State Bank of Pakistan

Fig 3.1: Income Group- wise Inflation

a: CPI Overall Inflation (YoY)

All Groups combined Upto Rs. 8,000 Above Rs. 35,000
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
Dec-18

Aug-19
Oct-18

Apr-19
Jan-19
Nov-18

Feb-19

Sep-19
Sep-18

May-19

Jul-19
Jun-19
Mar-19

b: CPI Food Inflation (YoY)

14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
Dec-18
Oct-18

Aug-19
Apr-19
Jan-19
Nov-18
Sep-18

Sep-19
Feb-19

May-19

Jun-19

Jul-19
Mar-19

c: CPI Non-Food Inflation (YoY)

14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
Apr-19
Sep-18

Feb-19

Sep-19
Jun-19

Jul-19
Mar-19
Dec-18
Oct-18

Aug-19
Jan-19
Nov-18

May-19

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Inflation Monitor, September 2019

4. Weighted Contribution

The weighted contribution of food group in the overall inflation increased to 45.19
percent during September 2019 from 40.54 percent in previous month. It was 10.82
percent during corresponding month of last year.

The weighted contribution of non-food group decreased to 54.81 percent in

September 2019 from 59.46 percent in previous month.

Table 4.1 Weighted Contribution to CPI Inflation (YoY)

Housing, Water,
Clothing & Elect, Gas &
Period Food Footwear Other Fuel Transport Education Others
Sep-18 10.82 10.76 31.34 18.88 13.38 14.81

Oct-18 16.06 8.22 35.92 15.95 7.92 15.94

Nov-18 11.22 9.54 37.56 17.74 7.23 16.70

Dec-18 6.27 10.43 39.55 17.35 7.89 18.50

Jan-19 13.26 8.36 43.58 12.43 6.55 15.81

Feb-19 24.38 7.05 38.18 9.82 5.86 14.72

Mar-19 35.31 6.48 33.22 8.45 3.21 13.33

Apr-19 38.58 5.09 31.02 9.88 3.13 12.30

May-19 38.04 6.04 29.60 11.06 2.95 12.30

Jun-19 36.81 5.91 30.28 10.40 3.01 13.58

Jul-19 35.52 6.02 33.37 9.05 3.24 12.80

Aug-19 40.54 6.15 29.53 8.44 2.94 12.40

Sep-19 45.19 5.84 27.51 7.33 2.06 12.07

10
 State Bank of Pakistan

5. Inflation Diffusion Index

Table 5.1 Inflation Diffusion Index - based on MoM change

Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19

General
45.9 62.4 52.7 53.1 51.3 43.6 58.3 53.2 55.3 47.7 68.2 63.1 59.2

Food & Non-Alcoholic 32.2 54.3 35.0 49.6 62.3 51.8 71.7 44.5 50.0 48.2 65.2 75.0 69.0
Beverages
Alcoholic Beverages & 33.3 100.0 66.7 0.0 66.7 66.7 50.0 50.0 16.7 33.3 66.7 100.0 83.3
Tobacco
Clothing & Footwear
67.8 61.0 79.7 81.4 61.0 42.4 62.7 61.0 74.6 44.1 67.8 62.7 59.3

Housing, Water, Elect,

16.7 75.0 38.9 16.7 41.7 13.9 19.4 44.4 25.0 41.7 88.9 30.6 30.6
Gas & other Fuels
Furnishing & Household
76.8 91.3 91.3 84.1 79.7 84.1 71.0 82.6 82.6 82.6 94.2 87.0 82.6
Equip. Maintenance etc
Health
48.7 69.2 53.8 53.8 48.7 42.1 47.4 61.5 69.2 51.3 64.1 61.5 76.9

Transport
25.6 41.9 39.5 48.8 20.9 9.3 48.8 34.9 46.5 23.3 74.4 41.9 27.9

Communication
8.3 41.7 41.7 0.0 8.3 8.3 16.7 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 16.7 8.3

Recreation & Culture

20.5 35.9 28.2 12.8 17.9 12.8 51.3 51.3 38.5 15.4 17.9 48.7 17.9

Education
68.8 31.3 0.0 25.0 -25.0 0.0 62.5 43.8 0.0 0.0 43.8 62.5 31.3

Restaurant & Hotels

50.0 66.7 66.7 100.0 66.7 66.7 100.0 83.3 66.7 83.3 100.0 66.7 100.0

Miscellaneous
77.1 82.9 71.4 74.3 74.3 71.4 60.0 48.6 77.1 82.9 85.7 65.7 94.3

NFNE
52.7 66.9 58.9 56.5 47.6 42.1 54.3 55.9 58.0 47.3 69.2 60.1 57.1

See annexure B (Technical Notes) for the definition of Inflation Diffusion Index.

11
Inflation Monitor, September 2019

6. Domestic Commodity Prices

Table 6.1 Inflation in Domestic CPI Food Commodities (percent)

Sr. Sep-18 Aug-19 Sep-19
Item YoY MoM YoY MoM YoY MoM
No Unit
1 Wheat 10 Kg 2.93 0.77 10.70 0.17 11.61 1.61
2 Wheat Flour Bag 10 Kg 4.34 0.37 10.54 0.27 12.34 2.00
3 Rice Basmati Sup. Qlty. Kg 12.01 0.39 6.88 0.20 7.40 0.87
4 Pulse Masoor (Washed) Kg. -9.15 -0.19 12.81 0.99 13.54 0.46
5 Pulse Moong (Washed) Kg. -8.19 -0.18 48.42 0.40 49.30 0.42
6 Pulse Mash (Washed) Kg. -22.86 0.69 23.81 1.16 23.21 0.20
7 Pulse Gram Kg. -3.69 2.87 13.41 1.20 13.34 2.81
8 Vegetable Ghee (Loose) Kg. 4.05 0.17 16.81 4.23 19.44 2.43
9 Sugar Refined Kg. -1.27 -1.04 34.29 3.67 35.37 -0.24
10 Milk Fresh (Unboiled) Ltr 4.00 0.00 5.78 0.85 7.29 1.43
11 Tapal Danedar Tea 200 Gm Pkt 11.54 0.59 3.36 0.47 6.42 3.57
12 Beef With Bone Av.Qlty. Kg 10.00 0.14 11.63 1.25 11.90 0.38
13 Mutton Av.Qlty. Kg 12.34 0.22 11.09 0.36 11.40 0.49
14 Chicken Farm Broiler (Live) Kg -4.77 -6.15 53.88 26.62 63.79 -0.10
15 Eggs Farm Doz -5.40 -2.81 -2.46 7.51 -0.37 -0.72
16 Potatoes Kg -19.58 -1.32 22.08 7.73 30.39 5.40
17 Onion Kg -53.05 -10.47 62.54 28.89 95.89 7.90
18 Tomatoes Kg -9.83 -12.03 -18.91 46.07 -20.63 -13.90
19 Ginger Kg 12.50 3.82 50.15 22.13 48.33 2.56
20 Garlic Kg -32.46 -2.08 86.05 8.33 101.51 6.06

7. Global Commodity Prices

Table 7.1 Changes in Major Global Indices (percent)

Sep-18 Aug-19 Sep-19
Item/ Group
YoY MoM YoY MoM YoY MoM
Food 0.2 -1.4 -4.5 -2.5 -1.7 -0.6
Metals -3.2 -2.8 -7.8 -2.2 -4.8 2.0
Energy 38.4 -1.4 -22.1 -6.0 -23.0 4.7
Agricultural -0.9 -1.8 -4.5 -2.7 -1.9 0.0
Cotton 19.2 -1.7 -25.1 -6.3 -21.1 0.7

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 State Bank of Pakistan

8. Seasonal Adjustment in CPI

Seasonal adjustment is the process of estimating and removing the seasonal effects
from a time series after decomposing it into seasonal, trend, cycle and irregular
components. The purpose is to identify the different components of the time series
and thus provide a better understanding of its underlying behavior. Seasonally
adjusted changes are usually preferred for analyzing general price trends in the
economy because they eliminate the effect of changes that normally occur at the
same time and in about the same magnitude every year. Various statistical methods
can be used to decompose a time series into its constituent components. The State
Bank of Pakistan uses X-12- ARIMA Seasonal Adjustment Method for this purpose.

The changes in consumer prices are normally reported in terms of year-on-year and
month-on-month basis. Seasonal adjustment is particularly useful for analyzing
month-on-month changes. The monthly data series of Consumer Price Index (CPI)
from July 2008 to September 2019 has been used for seasonal adjustment analysis.
The seasonal analysis is carried out without taking trading-day or Islamic calendar
month’s effects.

Figure 8.1 reveals that seasonality in CPI has been increasing over the period of last
four years. Average seasonal factors reveal strong seasonality during the calendar
year. There is an upward seasonality during the months from July to December and
downward seasonality in the remaining months of the year. Upward and downward
seasonality is above and below the trend line respectively. It is important to note that
seasonal factors are estimates on historical data and that the future data may not
necessarily show the same pattern of seasonal factors.

13
Inflation Monitor, September 2019

Fig. 8.1 Seasonal Factors of CPI

Seasonal Factors of CPI Average Seasonal Factors of CPI

103 103

102 102

101 101

100 100

99 99

98 98

97 97
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
May-17

May-18

May-19
Mar-17

Mar-18

Mar-19
Sep-16

Sep-17

Sep-18

Sep-19
Jan-17
Nov-16

Jan-18

Jan-19
Nov-17

Nov-18
Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Average 100. 100. 100. 100. 100. 99.5 99.5 99.0 99.1 100. 99.9 99.8

Note: Data Available in Annex Table 16.

Fig. 8.2 Seasonal Factors of CPI Food

Seasonal Factors of CPI Food Average Seasonal Factors of CPI Food

103 103

102 102

101 101

100 100

99 99

98 98

97 97
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Nov-16

Nov-17

Nov-18
May-17

May-18

May-19
Mar-17

Mar-18

Mar-19
Sep-16

Sep-17

Sep-18

Sep-19
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19
Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Average 100.7 101.2 101.2 101.4 101.2 99.35 98.76 97.89 98.55 99.91 99.89 99.90

Note: Data Available in Annex Table 17.

14
 State Bank of Pakistan

Figures 8.3 & 8.4 show that seasonally adjusted series are relatively smoother
than the original series due to the removal of the seasonal variations. The trend
follows the long-term movement in original series, and is smoother than the
original series because some irregular fluctuations have been removed.

Fig. 8.3 Seasonal Plots of CPI

Seasonal Plot- Original Series of CPI Seasonal Plot -Adjusted Series of CPI
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20
280 280
270 270
260 260
250 250
240 240
230 230
220 220
210 210
200 200
190 190
180 180
170 170
160 160
150 150
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Fig. 8.4 Seasonal Plots of CPI (Food)

Seasonal Plot- Original Series of CPI Food Seasonal Plot -Adjusted Series of CPI Food
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20
280 280
270 270
260 260
250 250
240 240
230 230
220 220
210 210
200 200
190 190
180 180
170 170
160 160
150 150
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

15
Inflation Monitor, September 2019
Fig. 8.5 Month-on-Month Percent Changes in CPI
Seasonally adjusted CPI for September 2019 stood at 256.77 MoM % Changes in CPI
Original Series Seasonally Adjusted Series
3
against 257.87 in original series showing a decrease of 1.10 on 2

account of adjustment of upward seasonality in September 2019. 1

-1

Seasonally adjusted CPI food group for September 2019 stood at -2

-3
273.26 against 276.32 in original series showing decrease of 3.07

Nov-18

Apr-19

Jun-19
Dec-18
Oct-18

May-19
Mar-19
Sep-18

Feb-19

Sep-19
Jan-19

Aug-19
Jul-19
on account of adjustment of upward seasonality in September MoM Annualize % Change in CPI
Original Series Seasonally Adjusted Series
40
2019. 30

20

10

Month-on-month change of seasonally adjusted CPI series stood 0

-10

at 1.52% reflecting an increase during September 2019 over -20

-30
previous month and an increase of 1.55% in original series.

Nov-18

Apr-19

Jun-19
Dec-18
Oct-18

May-19
Mar-19
Sep-18

Feb-19

Sep-19
Jan-19

Aug-19
Jul-19
Month-on-month change of seasonally adjusted CPI food group Fig. 8.6 Month-on-Month Percent Changes in CPI Food
series stood at 0.78% reflecting an increase during September MoM % Changes in CPI Food
Original Series Seasonally Adjusted Series
2019 over previous month and an increase of 0.75% in original 4

series. 2

-1
It is important to note that for MoM inflation, seasonally adjusted -2

-3
rates should be considered.
Nov-18

Apr-19

Jun-19
Dec-18
Oct-18

May-19
Mar-19
Sep-18

Feb-19

Sep-19
Jan-19

Aug-19
Jul-19
MoM Annualize % Change in CPI Food
Original Series Seasonally Adjusted Series
50
The most recent annual rate of inflation is usually indicated by 40

annualizing the seasonally adjusted month-on-month rate. 30

20

Annualized rate of CPI inflation in September 2019 10

(corresponding to the seasonally adjusted month-on-month rate) -10

-20

is 9.82 percent.
Nov-18

Apr-19

Jun-19
Dec-18
Oct-18

May-19
Mar-19
Sep-18

Feb-19

Sep-19
Jan-19

Jul-19

Aug-19

16
 State Bank of Pakistan

Annexure A
Table A1: CPI Inflation by Groups (percent)
MoM change YoY change
Weight Sep-18 Aug-19 Sep-19 Sep-18 Aug-19 Sep-19
s 37.5 -0.7 2.6 1.5 1.3 11.9 14.3
I. Food Group
Food & Non- 34.8 -0.8 2.8 1.6 1.1 10.7 13.4
Alcoholic Beverages
Alcoholic Beverages 1.4 0.3 0.7 0.3 3.2 36.8 36.9
& Tobacco
Restaurant & Hotels 1.2 0.3 1.0 1.2 5.3 8.3 9.3
II. Non-Food Group 62.5 0.3 0.6 0.2 7.7 11.5 11.4
Clothing & Footwear 7.6 0.3 1.2 0.4 6.6 8.5 8.7
Housing, Water, 29.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.0 12.7 12.8
Elect, Gas &. other
Fuels
Furnishing & 4.2 0.5 0.9 1.1 6.2 10.7 11.3
Household Equip.
Health
Maintenance etc 2.2 0.7 0.2 1.9 6.0 8.9 10.2
Transport 7.2 0.1 1.5 -0.8 16.6 15.3 14.3
Communication 3.2 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.6 9.0 9.0
2.0 0.1 1.0 0.2 6.8 8.2 8.2
Recreation & Culture
Education 3.9 2.0 0.1 0.2 15.1 7.0 5.2
Miscellaneous 2.8 1.1 2.2 1.2 6.9 14.4 14.5
Headline 100.0 -0.1 1.4 0.8 5.1 11.6 12.5

Table A2: Distribution of Price changes (YoY) of CPI basket

No. of items in each inflation range
Subdued Moderate Double digit
Decrease or increase increase (5% increase
Groups % Total number no change (>0% but but less than (10% or
changes of items (0% or less) <5%) 10%) more)
Sep-19 Sep-18 Sep-19 Sep-18 Sep-19 Sep-18 Sep-19 Sep-18 Sep-19 Sep-18 Sep-19
I. Food Group 14.3 129 129 26 10 52 22 25 41 26 56
Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages 13.4 117 117 26 9 45 21 24 39 22 48
Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco 36.9 6 6 0 1 4 0 0 0 2 5
Restaurant & Hotels 9.3 6 6 0 0 3 1 1 2 2 3
II. Non-Food Group 11.4 348 348 40 31 101 45 136 129 71 143
Clothing & Footwear 8.7 59 59 3 6 18 5 30 34 8 14
Housing, Water, Elect, Gas & other 12.8 36 36 12 2 6 4 11 14 7 16
Fuels
Furnishing & Household Equip. 11.3 69 69 0 1 16 5 45 23 8 40
Maintenance etc
Health 10.2 39 39 4 2 25 10 5 11 5 16
Transport 14.3 43 43 9 5 9 1 8 11 17 26
Communication 9.0 12 12 5 4 5 2 1 2 1 4
Recreation & Culture 8.2 39 39 5 7 13 11 12 8 9 13
Education 5.2 16 16 0 3 0 5 6 4 10 4
Miscellaneous 14.5 35 35 2 1 9 2 18 22 6 10
Overall 12.5 477 477 66 41 153 67 161 170 97 199
Note: Prices of 10 seasonal items were not reported during the month.

17
Inflation Monitor, September 2019

Table A3: Top and Bottom Fifteen Contributors to CPI Inflation (YoY) in September 2019
Top 15 Contributors YoY Change Weighted
Items/ Contributors Weights Sep-18 Sep-19 Contribution
Ranked by Weighted Contribution
1 Gas 1.58 0.00 142.57 12.35
2 House Rent 21.81 7.58 6.20 9.69
3 Cigarettes 1.39 1.25 38.10 5.70
4 Milk Fresh 6.68 4.02 7.08 4.73
5 Chicken 1.36 -4.77 63.79 4.33
6 Motor Fuel 3.03 24.39 22.46 4.32
7 Fresh Vegetables 1.75 -3.71 24.80 4.25
8 Electricity 4.40 0.00 11.33 4.13
9 Onion 0.51 -53.05 95.90 3.85
10 Wheat Flour 4.16 3.78 11.28 3.47
11 Meat 2.43 10.82 11.72 3.12
12 Sugar 1.04 -1.27 35.37 2.54
13 Personal Equipments 0.84 8.42 24.81 2.43
14 Education 3.94 15.14 5.22 2.06
15 Cotton Cloth 1.73 6.98 12.75 1.91
Total 56.67 68.86

Bottom 15 Contributors

Tomatoes
A.1Ranked by Weighted Contribution 0.42 -9.83 -20.63 -0.69
2 Eggs 0.46 -5.40 -0.37 -0.01
3 Gram Whole 0.16 -9.14 -0.52 -0.01
4 Betel Leaves & Nuts 0.02 143.33 -0.48 0.00
5 Kerosene Oil 0.01 37.35 9.63 0.01
6 Medical Equipments 0.01 4.09 11.10 0.01
7 Beans 0.03 1.06 12.85 0.03
8 Marriage Hall Charges 0.08 8.42 4.14 0.03
9 Blades 0.03 4.34 13.63 0.03
10 Mustard Oil 0.10 2.86 7.30 0.04
11 Wheat Product 0.10 0.15 7.45 0.05
12 Gur 0.02 -0.72 34.01 0.07
13 Recreation & Culture 0.86 5.97 1.90 0.08
14 Cereals 0.16 3.45 6.11 0.09
15 Honey 0.04 6.18 18.56 0.10
Total 2.48 -0.18

18
 State Bank of Pakistan

Table A3.1: Top and Bottom Fifteen Contributors to CPI Inflation (MoM) in September
2019
Top 15 Contributors MoM Change Weighted
Items/ Contributors Weights Aug -19 Sep-19 Contribution
Ranked by Weighted Contribution
1 Fresh Vegetables 1.75 7.08 13.40 37.67
2 Milk Fresh 6.68 0.86 1.38 14.54
3 Wheat Flour 4.16 0.75 2.06 10.31
4 Onion 0.51 28.89 7.90 8.57
5 Tea 0.84 0.57 3.08 4.34
6 Doctor (Mbbs) Clinic Fee 0.59 0.00 4.10 4.08
7 Vegetable Ghee 2.07 3.86 1.99 3.58
8 Potatoes 0.45 7.73 5.41 3.32
9 Household Servent 1.04 0.00 1.72 2.79
10 Ready Made Food 1.23 1.04 1.22 2.48
11 Bakery & Confectionary 1.16 0.35 1.66 2.45
12 Cooking Oil 1.75 3.69 1.66 2.39
13 Cotton Cloth 1.73 0.69 0.94 2.35
14 Personal Care 1.49 0.51 1.15 2.29
15 Personal Equipments 0.84 4.62 1.21 2.18
Total 26.30 103.35

Bottom 15 Contributors
Fresh by
A.1Ranked Fruits
Weighted Contribution 1.86 -4.89 -4.84 -12.77
2 Motor Fuel 3.03 2.76 -2.56 -9.21
3 Tomatoes 0.42 46.07 -13.90 -6.42
4 Fish 0.30 0.56 -1.51 -0.56
5 Sugar 1.04 3.67 -0.24 -0.35
6 Eggs 0.46 7.51 -0.72 -0.33
7 Chicken 1.36 26.62 -0.10 -0.17
8 Woolen Readymade Garments 0.40 0.00 0.00 0.00
9 News Papers 0.19 0.00 0.00 0.00
10 Postal Services 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00
11 Electricity 4.40 0.00 0.00 0.00
12 House Rent 21.81 0.00 0.00 0.00
13 Gas 1.58 0.00 0.00 0.00
14 Communication & Apparatus 3.15 0.28 0.00 0.00
15 Recreation & Culture 0.86 1.18 0.00 0.00
Total 40.93 -29.81

19
Inflation Monitor, September 2019

Table A3.2: Top Fifteen Contributors to CPI Inflation (YoY) in September 2019
YoY Change Weighted
Items/ Contributors Weights Sep-18 Sep-19 Contribution
A. Ranked by Percentage Change
Gas 1.58 0.00 142.57 12.35
A.1 Ranked by Weighted Contribution
2 Onion 0.51 -53.05 95.90 3.85
3 Chicken 1.36 -4.77 63.79 4.33
4 Pulse Moong 0.23 -8.19 49.30 0.87
5 Cigarettes 1.39 1.25 38.10 5.70
6 Sugar 1.04 -1.27 35.37 2.54
7 Gur 0.02 -0.72 34.01 0.07
8 Potatoes 0.45 -19.58 30.39 1.01
9 Postal Services 0.07 8.68 27.61 0.17
10 Personal Equipments 0.84 8.42 24.81 2.43
11 Fresh Vegetables 1.75 -3.71 24.80 4.25
12 Pulse Mash (Washed) 0.21 -22.86 23.20 0.35
13 Motor Fuel 3.03 24.39 22.46 4.32
14 Motor Vehicle 0.66 11.44 19.74 0.90
15 News Papers 0.19 10.44 19.63 0.27
Total 13.34 43.41

B. Ranked by Weights
1 House Rent 21.81 7.58 6.20 9.69
A.2 Ranked by Weighted Contribution
Milk Fresh 6.68 4.02 7.08 4.73
3 Electricity 4.40 0.00 11.33 4.13
4 Wheat Flour 4.16 3.78 11.28 3.47
5 Education 3.94 15.14 5.22 2.06
6 Communication & Apparatus 3.15 0.23 8.15 1.17
7 Motor Fuel 3.03 24.39 22.46 4.32
8 Transport Services 2.70 15.39 6.60 1.39
9 Meat 2.43 10.82 11.72 3.12
10 Vegetable Ghee 2.07 3.20 16.25 1.73
11 Fresh Fruits 1.86 2.38 6.56 1.04
12 Fresh Vegetables 1.75 -3.71 24.80 4.25
13 Cooking Oil 1.75 2.55 13.87 1.20
14 Cotton Cloth 1.73 6.98 12.75 1.91
15 Rice 1.58 8.84 6.51 0.71
Total 63.07 44.90

Note: Weighted contribution is estimated by multiplying the weights by the price change of an item; this is then
reported as a share in YoY change in CPI, which is 12.5 percent in September 2019.

20
 State Bank of Pakistan

Table A3.3: Top Ten Contributors to CPI Food Inflation (YoY) in September 2019
YoY Change Weighted
Items/ Contributors Weights Sep-18 Sep-19 Contribution
A. Ranked by Weighted Contribution
1 Cigarettes 1.39 1.25 38.10 5.70
2 Milk Fresh 6.68 4.02 7.08 4.73
3 Chicken 1.36 -4.77 63.79 4.33
4 Fresh Vegetables 1.75 -3.71 24.80 4.25
5 Onion 0.51 -53.05 95.90 3.85
6 Wheat Flour 4.16 3.78 11.28 3.47
7 Meat 2.43 10.82 11.72 3.12
8 Sugar 1.04 -1.27 35.37 2.54
9 Vegetable Ghee 2.07 3.20 16.25 1.73
10 Cooking Oil 1.75 2.55 13.87 1.20
Total 23.16 34.91
B. Ranked by Percentage Change
1 Onion 0.51 -53.05 95.90 3.85
A.2 Ranked by Weighted Contribution
Chicken 1.36 -4.77 63.79 4.33
3 Pulse Moong 0.23 -8.19 49.30 0.87
4 Cigarettes 1.39 1.25 38.10 5.70
5 Sugar 1.04 -1.27 35.37 2.54
6 Gur 0.02 -0.72 34.01 0.07
7 Potatoes 0.45 -19.58 30.39 1.01
8 Fresh Vegetables 1.75 -3.71 24.80 4.25
9 Pulse Mash (Washed) 0.21 -22.86 23.20 0.35
10 Honey 0.04 6.18 18.56 0.10
Total 7.01 23.07
C. Ranked by Weights
1 Milk Fresh 6.68 4.02 7.08 4.73
A.2 Ranked
Wheatby Weighted Contribution
Flour 4.16 3.78 11.28 3.47
3 Meat 2.43 10.82 11.72 3.12
4 Vegetable Ghee 2.07 3.20 16.25 1.73
5 Fresh Fruits 1.86 2.38 6.56 1.04
6 Fresh Vegetables 1.75 -3.71 24.80 4.25
7 Cooking Oil 1.75 2.55 13.87 1.20
8 Rice 1.58 8.84 6.51 0.71
9 Cigarettes 1.39 1.25 38.10 5.70
10 Chicken 1.36 -4.77 63.79 4.33
Total 25.05 30.27
Note: Weighted contribution is estimated by multiplying the weights by the price change of an item; this is then
reported as a share in YoY change in CPI Food, which is 14.3 percent in September 2019.

21
Inflation Monitor, September 2019

Table A3.4: Top Ten Contributors to CPI Non-food Inflation (YoY) in September 2019
YoY Change Weighted
Items/ Contributors Weights Sep-18 Sep-19 Contribution
A. Ranked by Weighted Contribution
1 Gas 1.58 0.00 142.57 12.35
2 House Rent 21.81 7.58 6.20 9.69
3 Motor Fuel 3.03 24.39 22.46 4.32
4 Electricity 4.40 0.00 11.33 4.13
5 Personal Equipments 0.84 8.42 24.81 2.43
6 Education 3.94 15.14 5.22 2.06
7 Cotton Cloth 1.73 6.98 12.75 1.91
8 Transport Services 2.70 15.39 6.60 1.39
9 Household Servent 1.04 5.55 12.35 1.22
10 Communication & Apparatus 3.15 0.23 8.15 1.17
Total 44.23 40.65
B. Ranked by Percentage Change
1 Gas 1.58 0.00 142.57 12.35
2 Postal Services 0.07 8.68 27.61 0.17
3 Personal Equipments 0.84 8.42 24.81 2.43
4 Motor Fuel 3.03 24.39 22.46 4.32
5 Motor Vehicle 0.66 11.44 19.74 0.90
6 News Papers 0.19 10.44 19.63 0.27
7 Motor Vehicle Tax 0.11 0.00 17.56 0.14
8 Plastic Products 0.25 7.61 15.43 0.31
9 Construction Input Items 0.56 9.75 13.99 0.77
10 Blades 0.03 4.34 13.63 0.03
Total 7.33 21.69
C. Ranked by Weights
1 House Rent 21.81 7.58 6.20 9.69
2 Electricity 4.40 0.00 11.33 4.13
3 Education 3.94 15.14 5.22 2.06
4 Communication & Apparatus 3.15 0.23 8.15 1.17
5 Motor Fuel 3.03 24.39 22.46 4.32
6 Transport Services 2.70 15.39 6.60 1.39
7 Cotton Cloth 1.73 6.98 12.75 1.91
8 Gas 1.58 0.00 142.57 12.35
9 Footware 1.55 7.54 5.50 0.53
10 Personal Care 1.49 5.11 7.65 0.96
Total 45.39 38.50

Note: Weighted contribution is estimated by multiplying the weights by the price change of an item; this is then
reported as a share in YoY change in CPI Non-food, which is 11.4 percent in September 2019.

22
 State Bank of Pakistan

Table A4: Distribution of Price Changes (YoY) - Selected CPI Items: September 2019
Groups Decrease or no Subdued increase Moderate increase Double digit increase (10% or more)
change (Greater than 0% but (5% but less than 10%)
less than 5%)
Food & Non-

Tomatoes, Mango Kalmi, Cold Drink (Standard Size), Ice Cream Walls, Wheat Flour Garlic, Onion, Arvi, Cardamom Small Av.Qlty,
Beverages
Alcoholic

Gram Whole Yellow Salt-Powdered (Lahori) Loose, Fine/Superior, Chillies Green, Chicken Farm Broiler (Live), Pulse Moong
Av.Qlty, Lemon, Lady Finger, Rice Basmati Gram Whole Black Av Qlty., (Washed), Ginger, Spinach, Sugar Refined,
Sweetmelon (Garma) 385/386 Pickles Ahmed/Mitchelles Cinamon Loose Av. Qlty, Gur Av.Qlty, Potatoes
Beverages

Betel Nuts Cigarettes Capstan 20,S, Cigarettes Morven

Alcoholic

Tobacco

Gold 20,S, Cigarettes K-20,S, Cigarettes Gold

&

Leaf 20,S, Betel Leaves

Gents Shoe, Art 1109 Socks Nylon (Pakistani), Brassier Sup.Qlty, Pullover Child Shoe Power Lite Bata, Gents Shoes Paul
Servis, Gents Sandal Bata, School Uni. Gents Oxford/Bon, Dopatta Bata, Long Cloth 57" Gul Ahmed/Al Karam,
Clothing &
Footwear

Ladies Spoung Chappal Kameez,Shal.Girls, Tailoring Georgette Av.Qlty, Pullover Shirting Av.Qlty., Underwear Av.Qlty Medium
Bata, Ladies Sandal Bata, Shirt, Shoe Repair Half Sole, Ladies Oxford/Bon, Shirt Boy Size, Tropical Suiting Law.Pur, Heavy Wt
Gents Spoung Chappal Bata, Tailoring Coat-Pant Suit 24"/26" Length, Foot Wear Suiting Law.Pur Av. Qlty, Georgette Av.Qlty,
Sports Shoes Local (Male) Pant Cloth Wash & Wear Av.Qlty
Elect, Gas & other

Cement (Local), Firewood Whole, Cement Kerosene Oil, Mason (Raj) Gas Chrg Over 200 - 300 Mmbtu, Gas Chrg Over
Housing, Water,

Elect.Charges Upto 50 Units Blocks (6"X8"X12"), Wage Rate, Plumber Wage 100 - 200 Mmbtu, Gas Chrg All Over 500
Elect.Charges 01 - 100 Units, Rate, Carpanter Wage Rate, Mmbtu, Gas Chrg Overall/ Combined, Gas Chrg
Fuels

Elect.Charges 101 - 300 Units Timber Shesham Log, Over 300 - 500 Mmbtu, Gas Chrg Up To 100
Electician Wage Rate(P/Day), Cub Mmbtu, Iron Bar (M.S. Bar) 1/2", Synthetic
House Rent For Q-V Enemal Ici, Elect.Charges Above 1000 Units
Washing Machine (Singer) D-Freezer Waves 8 Cft., Dry Cell 1.5 Volt (Local), Synthetic
Tube LightEnemal
PhilipsRobialac,
40 Watt, Elect.Charges 301 -
Tea Set Pak. China
Furnishing &

Maintenance
Household

Electric Blub Energy Saver 14 1000 Units,

Refg. Dawlence 10 Cft., Gizer Wear 21 Pcs,Unskilled Labour
Harpic, Chair Wage Rat,
Shesham Bricks
Wood, Boot
Equip.

(New) Cherry/Kiwi
Ist Class, Sand
50(Black PitStick
Sand), Elect.
etc

Watt, Farshi Dari 12'X9' Large Size 30 Gallon, Phnyle Polish Ml, Non Cooking
Av.Qlty, Marriage Hall Typhone/Finis/Carr 3 Ltr, Charges
Pan, Overall/
Frying Combined,
Pan Steel Bajree,
Avg. Qlty, Thermos
Charges Without Refreshment Matress Single(4"Thick) Starvac 1 Ltr, Washing Soap 250 Gm
Hydryllin Syrup 120 Ml., Ventolin Tab. 2Mg., Sugar Doctor (Mbbs) Clinic Fee, Betnovate-N Ointment 5 Gm, Calpol Syrup 60
Health

Vicks Vaporub/ Balm Test (Random/Fasting), Glycrine Small Bottle, Ecg Ml., Dettol (Medium), Sancos Syrup (50 Ml.),
Saniplast (1 Putty), Ear Drops Charges, Urine Test (Dr) Flagyl Tab. 200 Mg., Trisil Tab., Phenergan
(Cardisporine), Lederplex Charges, Panadol Tab. Syrup 120 Ml., Brufen Tabs 200-Mg.
Air Fare Economy Class., Motor Cycle Service Charges Bus Fare Min (Within City), Car Honda Civic 1500 Cc, Train Fare Ist Slp.101-
Transport

Gas Cylinder S.Size (L.P.G), Car Suzuki 800 Cc (W/O. Ac), 500, Cng, Train Fare Ist Slp. > 500, Train Fare
Plateform Ticket, Cycle Overhauling Charges, A/C Slp > 500K, Train Fare A/C Slp. 1-100,
Motorcycle Yamaha 100 Cc, Bus Fare Max (Within City), Train Fare A/C Slp.101-500, Car Suzuki 1000
Full Tonga Charges Bus Fare Outside City (A/C) Cc, Train Fare Eco. 1-100 Km.
Communic

Postal Envelope For Saudi Fax Charges (Local), Internet Mobile Set Postal Envelope Domestic, Postal Registration
ation

Arabia, U.M.S. Reg Charges Charges Nokia/Sony/Ericsson Av.Qlty, Charges, Telephone Charges Local Call,
Min., Mobile Cell Charges, Telephone Set Av. Qlty Telephone Charges Outside City
T.C.S. Ch. Min.
Weekly "Mag", V.C.P. Urdu Book Ist Year/ Inter, Maths Book Calss V Daily "Nawa-E-Waqt", Daily "Jang", Photostate
Recreation &

Panasonic/Lg/National, Tv English Book Ba/B.Sc, Eng. (T.B.Board), Pakistan Studies Paper 70 Gm, Weekly "Akhbar-E-Jahan", Pen
Culture

Licence Fee Domestic, Book Ist.Yr Complete Set, Book Ba/B.Sc, Paper Fool Ink Dollor 57 Ml Bottle, Pencil Goldfish/Deer,
Video Cassette Blank. Cinema A/C High Class, Scape (27"X17"), English Daily "Dawn", Ball Pen (Local), Urdu Book
Tdk/Sony, T.V. 20" Colored Cable Charges, Video Game Book Class Ix Or X, Urdu Ba/B.Sc, Fountain Pen Hero/Wings/China,
Sony Sega 16 Byte Book Class V (T.B.Board) Exercise Book Lined 80/10
Coaching Fee For Class Ix/ Pvt School Fee Eng.Med Pvt School Fee Eng.Med Mba Tuition Fee, Pvt Eng.Colege Fee (Ist Year),
Education

X, Coaching Charges For (Class-Vi), Govt. College Fee (Class-X), Pvt School Fee Govt. Med. College Fee Mbbs Ist Year, Pvt
Class Xi/ Xii Commerce Ist. Year, Govt. College Fee Eng.Med (Class-I), Pvt School Med.College Fee Mbbs(Ist Year)
Group, Coaching Charges 4Th. Year Fee Eng.Med (Classs-V)
Chicken Biryani Full/Double Cooked Mutton (Av. Hotel), Cooked Dal (Av. Hotel), Tea Prepared
Restaura

Hotels
nt &

Bread Tandoori St. Size (Ordinary), Cooked Beef (Av. Hotel)

Miscellaneo

Toothpaste Macleans 70 Shampoo Sunsilk/Pantene 100 Toothpast Med Size Colgate Gold Tezabi 24 Ct, Silver Tezabi 24 Ct,
Gms Ml, Beauty Parlour Hair Style 70Gms, Wall Clock Quartz Toothpowder Dentonic 90 Gms, Blade Treet
us

Charges Av.Qlty, Blade 7-O-Clock Ordinary (10), Perfume Med.Size

Steel (5) Medora/Broche, Wrist Watch Ladies Citizen

23
Inflation Monitor, September 2019

Table A5: City- wise CPI Inflation by Income Groups, September 2019
Up to Rs: 8000 Rs 8001- 12000
General Food Non-Food General Food Non-Food
MoM YoY MoM YoY MoM YoY MoM YoY MoM YoY MoM YoY
1 Rawalpindi 0.4 11.9 0.3 14.3 0.5 9.4 0.5 11.8 0.3 14.0 0.6 9.6
2 Islamabad 1.7 12.7 1.5 14.6 2.0 10.6 1.1 12.0 0.8 13.5 1.4 10.5
3 Lahore 0.3 10.5 0.3 13.3 0.4 6.8 0.3 10.4 0.2 13.3 0.4 7.0
4 Gujranwala 1.0 11.5 1.8 17.4 0.0 4.8 0.8 11.8 1.4 17.4 0.1 6.1
5 Sialkot 0.5 11.9 1.0 13.7 0.0 9.7 0.3 11.8 0.7 13.4 0.0 10.2
6 Faisalabad 0.4 11.4 0.6 14.4 0.1 8.2 0.3 11.0 0.5 14.1 0.1 8.1
7 Multan 1.0 12.6 1.7 15.7 0.2 9.0 1.0 12.4 1.8 15.5 0.1 9.2
8 Sargodha 0.6 12.7 0.9 15.8 0.3 9.4 0.5 12.5 0.7 15.6 0.3 9.6
9 Bahawalpur 0.9 11.5 1.4 15.3 0.4 7.7 0.6 11.0 0.9 14.6 0.2 7.7
10 Karachi 2.6 15.9 4.9 20.7 -0.3 10.0 2.5 16.3 4.7 20.4 0.0 11.9
11 Hyderabad 2.8 18.0 4.2 19.7 1.0 15.8 2.4 17.7 3.8 18.9 0.8 16.3
12 Sukkur 2.0 15.0 3.4 21.3 0.3 8.3 1.5 14.0 2.8 20.2 0.3 8.2
13 Larkana 3.1 15.2 5.6 21.5 0.4 8.7 2.9 14.7 5.5 21.3 0.5 8.8
14 Peshawar 1.4 13.0 1.5 15.2 1.3 10.7 1.2 12.8 1.4 15.1 1.1 10.8
15 Bannu 0.3 9.1 0.2 10.3 0.4 7.8 0.4 9.0 0.3 10.3 0.4 7.9
16 Quetta 0.1 13.5 0.0 14.6 0.2 12.2 0.2 13.5 0.1 14.3 0.3 12.6
17 Khuzdar 1.5 7.7 1.6 9.5 1.4 5.8 1.3 7.5 1.4 9.8 1.2 5.3
Rs 12001-18000 Rs 18001-35000
General Food Non-Food General Food Non-Food
MoM YoY MoM YoY MoM YoY MoM YoY MoM YoY MoM YoY
1 Rawalpindi 0.6 12.3 0.5 13.9 0.7 11.0 0.6 11.9 0.5 13.5 0.7 10.8
2 Islamabad 1.0 12.2 0.6 13.5 1.3 11.1 1.1 11.9 0.7 13.6 1.3 10.6
3 Lahore 0.3 10.5 0.2 13.0 0.3 8.0 0.2 10.0 0.1 12.8 0.2 7.5
4 Gujranwala 0.7 12.2 1.2 17.2 0.1 7.6 0.6 12.1 1.1 17.2 0.1 7.9
5 Sialkot 0.4 12.1 0.8 13.2 0.0 11.0 0.2 11.8 0.5 13.3 -0.1 10.6
6 Faisalabad 0.2 11.2 0.4 13.8 0.1 8.9 0.1 10.7 0.2 13.8 0.0 8.4
7 Multan 1.0 12.5 1.8 15.5 0.3 9.7 0.9 12.4 1.9 16.1 0.1 9.5
8 Sargodha 0.5 12.2 0.8 15.2 0.2 9.7 0.4 11.6 0.8 15.3 0.1 9.0
9 Bahawalpur 0.4 11.5 0.8 14.8 0.2 8.9 0.2 10.5 0.5 14.8 0.0 7.6
10 Karachi 2.5 17.2 4.6 20.5 0.4 14.1 2.2 16.9 4.4 20.5 0.3 13.8
11 Hyderabad 2.2 18.2 3.5 18.9 0.9 17.4 1.7 17.7 3.0 18.5 0.6 17.0
12 Sukkur 1.3 13.5 2.4 19.8 0.3 8.2 0.9 12.3 1.7 18.1 0.2 7.9
13 Larkana 2.7 14.8 5.1 21.0 0.6 9.9 2.6 13.9 5.3 20.0 0.5 9.4
14 Peshawar 1.1 13.2 1.1 15.0 1.1 11.8 0.9 12.7 0.9 14.9 0.9 11.2
15 Bannu 0.5 9.3 0.6 10.4 0.4 8.3 0.3 9.1 0.2 10.5 0.4 8.1
16 Quetta 0.1 14.6 0.1 14.7 0.2 14.5 0.1 14.4 0.0 15.0 0.1 13.9
17 Khuzdar 1.1 6.7 1.4 8.5 0.9 5.2 1.1 7.0 1.4 7.9 0.9 6.2
Above Rs 35000 Combined
General Food Non-Food General Food Non-Food
MoM YoY MoM YoY MoM YoY MoM YoY MoM YoY MoM YoY
1 Rawalpindi 0.5 11.5 0.4 12.1 0.5 11.2 0.5 11.5 0.4 12.8 0.6 10.7
2 Islamabad 0.7 11.9 0.4 12.0 0.8 11.9 0.7 11.7 0.4 12.3 0.9 11.4
3 Lahore 0.1 9.8 -0.1 11.1 0.2 9.1 0.2 9.9 0.1 12.2 0.2 8.2
4 Gujranwala 0.5 11.7 1.0 17.0 0.3 9.2 0.6 11.9 1.2 17.3 0.2 8.3
5 Sialkot -0.1 11.7 0.1 12.8 -0.1 11.2 0.1 11.7 0.4 13.1 -0.1 10.7
6 Faisalabad 0.0 10.3 0.1 12.2 -0.1 9.5 0.1 10.8 0.3 13.6 0.0 9.0
7 Multan 0.6 11.3 1.8 15.5 0.0 9.3 0.8 11.9 1.8 15.6 0.1 9.4
8 Sargodha 0.2 11.2 0.9 14.0 -0.1 10.1 0.4 11.9 0.8 15.1 0.1 9.9
9 Bahawalpur 0.0 9.6 0.4 12.9 -0.1 8.2 0.3 10.5 0.8 14.4 0.1 8.3
10 Karachi 1.6 15.2 4.0 18.9 0.4 13.3 1.9 15.7 4.3 19.6 0.2 12.9
11 Hyderabad 1.0 18.2 2.3 17.4 0.4 18.6 1.7 17.9 3.1 18.5 0.7 17.4
12 Sukkur 0.4 12.2 1.0 16.0 0.1 10.4 1.1 13.1 2.1 18.6 0.4 9.6
13 Larkana 2.2 13.3 5.1 18.2 0.9 11.2 2.7 14.4 5.3 20.6 1.1 10.7
14 Peshawar 0.6 13.3 0.3 13.5 0.8 13.2 0.9 13.1 0.9 14.6 0.9 12.1
15 Bannu 0.5 9.6 1.1 10.0 0.3 9.4 0.4 9.3 0.4 10.3 0.4 8.7
16 Quetta 0.2 14.5 0.0 14.5 0.2 14.6 0.1 14.2 0.0 14.6 0.2 13.9
17 Khuzdar 0.7 9.2 1.2 8.5 0.4 9.6 1.2 7.6 1.4 8.9 1.1 6.8

24
 State Bank of Pakistan

Table A6: City- wise CPI Inflation (YoY), September 2019

High inflation cities Low inflation cities
City General Food Non-food City General Food Non-food
Hyderabad 17.9 18.5 17.4 Jhang 12.2 14.2 11.1
Bahawalnagar 17.4 20.9 15.3 Multan 11.9 15.6 9.4

Mardan 16.8 13.1 18.7 Sargodha 11.9 15.1 9.9

Abbottabad 16.7 15.4 17.5 Gujranwala 11.9 17.3 8.3

Karachi 15.7 19.6 12.9 Islamabad 11.7 12.3 11.4

Dadu 15.5 21.2 11.7 Sialkot 11.7 13.1 10.7

D. I. Khan 15.4 14.4 16.0 Sahiwal 11.5 15.0 9.6

Wazirabad 14.9 20.3 11.3 Rawalpindi 11.5 12.8 10.7

Larkana 14.4 20.6 10.7 Turbat 11.1 8.1 12.6

Quetta 14.2 14.6 13.9 Faisalabad 10.8 13.6 9.0

Mianwali 13.8 19.8 10.5 Bahawalpur 10.5 14.4 8.3

Mingora 13.8 17.9 11.4 D. G. Khan 10.3 11.5 9.6

Mirpukhas 13.5 15.8 11.9 Lahore 9.9 12.2 8.2

Attock 13.3 13.6 13.2 Bannu 9.3 10.3 8.7

Sukkur 13.1 18.6 9.6 D. M. Jamali 9.0 10.2 8.2

Peshawar 13.1 14.6 12.1 Loralai 8.9 12.0 7.1

R. Y. Khan 13.0 20.1 8.6 Mithi 8.6 13.6 5.6

Muzaffargarh 12.9 15.8 11.1 Khuzdar 7.6 8.9 6.8

Jhelum 12.6 13.3 12.2 Gawadar 7.5 4.8 9.1

Nawabshah 6.4 5.2 7.1

Vehari 5.0 8.7 2.6

Note: High inflation refers to equal or above average inflation, and low inflation refers to below average

25
Inflation Monitor, September 2019

Table A7: Income Group-wise Inflation ( percent)

MoM YoY
Sep-18 Aug-19 Sep-19 Sep-18 Aug-19 Sep-19

Up to Rs. 8000
General -0.2 1.8 1.2 3.2 10.7 12.2

Food -0.6 2.9 1.9 0.3 12.3 15.1

Non-food 0.3 0.5 0.3 6.9 8.9 8.9

Rs. 8001- 12000

General -0.2 1.7 1.0 3.7 11.2 12.5

Food -0.6 2.8 1.7 0.6 12.1 14.8

Non-food 0.3 0.5 0.3 6.9 10.4 10.3

Rs. 12001- 18000

General -0.1 1.6 0.9 4.1 11.2 12.4

Food -0.6 2.8 1.7 0.9 12.1 14.7

Non-food 0.3 0.6 0.2 7.1 10.3 10.2

Rs. 18001- 35000

General -0.1 1.5 0.8 4.7 11.8 12.8

Food -0.7 2.7 1.6 1.2 12.2 14.7

Non-food 0.3 0.6 0.2 7.6 11.5 11.4

Above Rs. 35000

General 0.0 1.2 0.6 6.1 12.1 12.7

Food -0.7 2.4 1.4 2.0 11.4 13.7

Non-food 0.4 0.6 0.2 8.1 12.4 12.2

All income groups

General -0.1 1.4 0.8 5.1 11.6 12.5

Food -0.7 2.6 1.5 1.3 11.9 14.3

Non-food 0.3 0.6 0.2 7.7 11.5 11.4

Note: Computed based on CPI Numbers by Income Quintiles and Commodity Groups released by Pakistan
Bureau of Statistics (PBS)

26
 State Bank of Pakistan

Table A8: SPI Item-wise Price Movements

Prices Percentage change
Sr.No. Items Unit Sep-19 YoY MoM
1 Wheat 10Kg. 370.2 10.6 2.4
2 Wheat Flour Bag 10Kg. 436.3 12.5 2.7
3 Rice Basmati Broken Kg. 81.6 6.4 0.3
4 Rice Irri-6/9 Kg. 60.5 11.5 0.2
5 Bread Plain Med.Size (340-400 Gm.) Each 49.0 14.4 3.1
6 Beef Kg. 419.8 11.8 0.1
7 Mutton Kg. 873.6 10.9 0.8
8 Chicken Live (Farm) Kg. 203.0 71.6 10.9
9 Milk Fresh Litr 93.5 9.3 0.8
10 Curd Kg. 109.5 7.2 1.1
11 Milk Powdered Nido 500G 444.9 15.5 0.4
12 Egg Hen (Farm) Doz. 97.9 2.3 0.5
13 Mustard Oil Kg. 201.1 7.0 1.0
14 Cooking Oil (Tin) 2.5Ltr 569.8 18.6 1.6
15 Veg. Ghee (Tin) 2.5Kg. 544.9 14.7 1.6
16 Veg.Ghee Loose Kg. 183.4 21.7 3.0
17 Bananas Doz. 66.9 0.8 -14.0
18 Masoor Pulse Washed Kg. 126.4 11.1 0.5
19 Moong Pulse Washed Kg. 170.5 49.1 0.1
20 Mash Pulse Washed Kg. 181.8 25.8 0.8
21 Gram Pulse Washed Kg. 132.1 11.0 1.3
22 Potatoes Kg. 41.2 27.8 2.8
23 Onions Kg. 72.0 89.5 12.3
24 Tomatoes Kg. 50.9 -29.7 -8.0
25 Sugar Kg. 75.0 36.4 -0.5
26 Gur Kg. 113.7 32.6 2.6
27 Salt Powdered Loose (Lahori) Kg. 12.5 4.3 0.6
28 Red Chillies Powder Loose Kg. 347.0 2.0 0.5
29 Garlic Kg. 258.1 110.0 0.8
30 Tea (Yellow Lable 200 Gm.) 200Gm. 236.9 16.1 7.9
31 Cooked Beef Plate Each 128.4 12.1 0.8
32 Cooked Dal Plate Each 67.0 8.5 1.1
33 Tea Prepared (Sada) Cup 24.6 13.0 0.5
34 Cigarettes K-2 (20'S) 20'S 76.2 47.3 0.0
35 Long Cloth (Coarse Latha) Mtr. 309.9 32.3 1.2
36 Shirting Mtr. 204.3 14.4 0.1
37 Lawn Mtr. 348.9 21.1 0.1
38 Georgette (Voil Printed) Mtr. 144.8 9.6 0.4
39 Sandal Gents Bata Pair 699.0 0.0 0.0
40 Chappal Spng.Bata (Gents) Pair 199.0 0.0 0.0
41 Sandal Ladies Bata Pair 599.0 0.0 0.0
42 Electric Charges 1-50 Unit 2.0 0.0 0.0
43 Gas Charges Upto 3.3719 Mmbtu 246.3 91.4 0.0
44 Kerosene Litr 131.8 8.6 -1.7
45 Firewood 40Kg 654.8 4.3 0.4
46 Energy Savor 14 Watt Each 177.1 3.4 0.0
47 Washing Soap (200-250 Gm.) Cake 33.2 16.8 1.9
48 Match Box Each 2.6 11.5 1.2
49 Petrol Litr 114.2 21.6 -4.0
50 Diesel Litr 128.1 19.1 -4.0
51 L.P.G.( 11 Kg Cylender.) Each 1285.1 -18.5 2.8
52 Tele. Local Call Call 4.7 18.0 0.0
53 Bath Soap Lifebouy (Standard) Cake 43.9 7.9 2.4
Maximum 110.0 12.3

Median 11.8 0.5

Minimum -29.7 -14.0

27
Inflation Monitor, September 2019

Table A9: Distribution of Price Changes (YoY) - WPI Items: September 2019
Groups Decrease or no change Subdued increase (Greater than Moderate increase Double digit increase
0% but less than 5%) (5% but less than (10% or more)
10%)

Hides And Fur Skins,Raw, Eggs, Dry Fruits, Raw Animal Maize, Unmanufactured Poultry, Stimulant And
Agriculture Forestry
& Fishery Products

Millet/Bajra Material/Wool, Other Oil Seeds, Milk Tobacco, Fresh Fruits, Spice Crops, Edible
From Bovine Animals, Fibre Crops Fuel Wood In Logs Roots/Potatos,
Sorghum/Jowar,
Vegetables, Sugar Crops,
Rice, Cotton Seeds, Pulses,
Wheat, Fish Live Fresh Or
Chilled
Coal Not Aggiomerated Natural Gas Liquified,
Ores & Minerals,
Electricity Gas &

Electrical Energy, Salt &

Pure Sodium Chloride
Water

Towels, Nylon Yarn, Footwears Quilts, Mineral Water, Processed Cotton Yarn, Coffee And Other Leather N.E.C, Sugar
Food Products, Beverages and Tobacco,
Textiles, Apparel and Leather Products

Liquid Milk, Blankets, Beverages, Tea, Chocolate, Fruit Refined, Tobbaco Products,
Woolen Carpets, Sugar Confectionary Juices, Meat Of Animals, Spices, Milk And Cream In
Other Cereal Flour, Solid Form, Vegetable
Hosiery Products, Ghee, Woven Fabrics,
Leather With Out Hairs, Dried Fruits & Nuts, Wheat
Bed Sheets, Other Food Flour, Other Fabrics,
Products, Oil Cakes, Silk Vegetables & Fruit Juices,
And Reyon Fabrics, Ice Ready Made Garments,
Cream, Synthetic Dairy Products N.E.C,
Carpets, Blended Yarn Cotton Fabrics, Vegetable
Oil Refined
Other Transportable Goods

Machinery and Equipments

Coke, Hard Board Insecticised, Timber, Plastic Products, Ceramics And Sanitery, Dying Materials, Auto
except Metal Products,

Matches, Cement, Printing Paper, Soaps & Detergent, Tyres, Motor Sprit, Diesel
Furnace Oil Pesticides Oil, Kerosine Oil,
Fertilizers, Glass Sheets,
Bed Foams, Mobil Oil,
Chemicals, Paints &
Varnishes, Bricks Blocks
And Tiles, Medicines,
Other Glass Articles

Engines And Motors, Vacuum Tractors, Lighting Equipments, Air Conditioners Lathe Machines, Steel Bars
Metal Product Machinery

Pumps, Pig Iron, Concrate Bicycles & Sheets, Motor Cycles,

Mixer, Cultivators, Chuff Cutter Motor Vehicales,
& Equipment

Refrige,Wash& Sew
Mach,Iron,Fan, Electrical
Wires, Pipe Fittings, Radio
And Television, Steel
Products

28
 State Bank of Pakistan

Table A10: Consumer Price Index by Major Groups and Composite Commodities
Index
Items and specification Weights Sep-18 Aug-19 Sep-19

General 100.00 229.12 255.94 257.87

Food & Non-Alcohalic Beverages. 34.83 236.78 264.07 268.40
1 Wheat 0.35 200.51 220.26 223.80
2 Wheat Flour 4.16 212.55 231.75 236.53
3 Wheat Product 0.10 213.99 226.28 229.94
4 Besan 0.15 266.82 284.44 287.21
5 Rice 1.58 199.02 210.49 211.97
6 Cereals 0.16 264.45 278.08 280.60
7 Bakery & Confectionary 1.16 229.45 246.26 250.36
8 Nimco 0.46 261.61 269.64 270.22
9 Meat 2.43 314.34 349.72 351.19
10 Chicken 1.36 143.44 235.18 234.94
11 Fish 0.30 223.09 242.55 238.89
12 Milk Fresh 6.68 287.14 303.28 307.48
13 Milk Product 0.63 278.55 295.45 299.75
14 Milk Powder 0.11 247.39 273.83 276.83
15 Eggs 0.46 194.28 194.97 193.57
16 Mustard Oil 0.10 164.80 175.81 176.83
17 Cooking Oil 1.75 141.62 158.63 161.26
18 Vegetable Ghee 2.07 147.60 168.25 171.59
19 Dry Fruits 0.25 291.02 312.97 315.54
20 Fresh Fruits 1.86 243.78 272.98 259.76
21 Pulse Masoor 0.27 156.97 176.58 178.17
22 Pulse Moong 0.23 217.37 323.18 324.54
23 Pulse Mash (Washed) 0.21 207.73 255.42 255.93
24 Pulse Gram 0.24 265.30 292.48 300.69
25 Gram Whole 0.16 265.65 262.42 264.28
26 Beans 0.03 245.51 275.37 277.06
27 Potatoes 0.47 215.21 266.23 280.62
28 Onion 0.53 226.63 411.47 443.96
29 Tomatoes 0.44 231.71 213.59 183.90
30 Fresh Vegetables 1.68 280.93 309.15 350.59
31 Sugar 1.04 197.47 267.95 267.31
32 Gur 0.02 259.35 337.51 347.56
33 Honey 0.04 352.68 415.24 418.15
34 Sweet Meet 0.25 273.01 291.72 293.35
35 Beverages 1.20 233.14 244.03 246.59
36 Jam, Tomato Ketchup & Pickle 0.25 233.20 250.53 252.16
37 Condiments 0.27 286.64 311.21 314.61
38 Spices 0.54 264.25 294.48 299.46
39 Tea 0.84 307.50 324.56 334.55
Alcohalic Beverages, Tobacco 1.41 314.42 428.89 430.39
40 Cigarettes 1.39 309.50 426.03 427.43
41 Betel Leaves & Nuts 0.02 613.03 602.78 610.07
Clothing & Footwear 7.57 255.36 276.34 277.52
42 Cotton Cloth 1.73 248.90 278.02 280.64
43 Woolen Cloth 0.88 268.05 295.21 296.75
44 Ready Made Garments 0.97 264.55 281.45 281.91
45 Woolen Readymade Garments 0.40 267.54 289.82 289.82
46 Hosiery 0.51 267.72 288.98 290.85
47 Dopatta 0.44 266.54 290.24 290.81
Cont’d

29
Inflation Monitor, September 2019

Table A10: Consumer Price Index by Major Groups and Composite Commodities
Index
Items and specification Weights Sep-18 Aug-19 Sep-19

48 Cleaning & Laundering 0.21 292.02 314.95 318.39

49 Tailoring 0.88 350.43 370.77 371.43
50 Footware 1.55 180.09 189.92 189.99
Housing,Water,Elect,Gas & Other Fuel 29.41 210.82 237.57 237.71
51 House Rent 21.81 206.00 218.77 218.77
52 Construction Input Item 0.56 280.39 318.92 319.63
53 Construction Wage Rate 0.33 268.44 290.23 292.53
54 Water Supply 0.50 189.82 196.05 200.56
55 Electricity 4.40 238.10 265.08 265.08
56 Gas 1.58 158.08 383.45 383.45
57 Kerosene Oil 0.01 272.49 241.67 298.74
58 Fire Wood Whole 0.23 299.07 310.93 312.72
Furnished H.Hold Equip.& Maint. Etc 4.21 243.36 268.03 270.94
59 Furniture 0.33 238.44 265.29 268.82
60 Household Textile 0.65 243.85 260.48 263.35
61 Household Equipment 0.59 193.22 208.88 209.66
62 Utensils 0.32 257.08 289.15 291.41
63 Plastic Products 0.25 229.26 260.59 264.63
64 Washing Soap & Detergent 0.79 245.92 275.08 276.87
65 Sewing Needle & Dry Cell 0.15 221.76 242.52 243.55
66 Household Servant 1.04 271.59 299.97 305.13
67 Marriage Hall Charges 0.08 270.18 280.41 281.37
Health 2.19 226.78 245.21 249.96
68 Drug Medicine 1.27 191.25 211.05 212.51
69 Medical Equipment 0.01 263.71 287.38 292.99
70 Doctor (MBBS) Clinic Fee 0.59 307.89 325.23 338.58
71 Medical Test 0.32 216.89 231.83 233.72
Transport 7.20 204.94 235.99 234.20
72 Motor Vehicle 0.66 197.12 234.27 236.04
73 Motor Vehicle Accessories 0.24 220.60 247.82 249.94
74 Motor Fuel 3.03 182.56 229.44 223.57
75 Mechanical Service 0.46 245.90 262.54 267.28
76 Motor Vehicle Tax 0.11 210.18 247.08 247.08
77 Transport Services 2.70 223.39 237.75 238.13
Communication 3.22 133.78 145.77 145.78
78 Postal Services 0.07 272.45 347.68 347.68
79 Communication & Apparatus 3.15 130.87 141.54 141.54
Recreation & Culture 2.02 210.12 227.00 227.37
80 Recreation & Culture 0.86 137.22 139.83 139.83
81 Text Books 0.57 304.43 327.76 327.83
82 News Papers 0.19 202.94 242.78 242.78
83 Stationery 0.40 236.70 264.24 266.01
Education 3.94 287.41 301.75 302.40
84 Education 3.94 287.41 301.75 302.40
Restaurants And Hotels 1.23 295.86 319.62 323.51
85 Ready Made Food 1.23 295.86 319.62 323.51
Miscellaneous Goods And Services 2.76 267.30 302.58 306.08
86 Personal Care 1.49 242.09 257.64 260.60
87 Cosmetics 0.39 225.61 245.40 247.72
88 Blades 0.03 206.54 230.54 234.70
89 Personal Equipments 0.84 333.26 410.95 415.94

30
 State Bank of Pakistan

Table A11: Wholesale Price Index by Major Groups and Composite Commodities
Index
Items and Specifications Sep-18 Aug-19 Sep-19
General 238.25 274.74 275.49
Agriculture Forestry & Fishery 267.67 291.11 298.77
1 Wheat 205.17 223.19 229.50
2 Maize 228.81 244.68 251.57
3 Rice 181.31 209.04 211.58
4 Sorghum/Jowar 285.95 408.41 422.26
5 Millet/Bajra 261.64 272.95 260.20
6 Vegetables 338.79 387.89 479.03
7 Fresh Fruits 266.54 312.34 291.16
8 Dry Fruits 278.85 291.70 292.20
9 Cotton Seeds 265.99 303.71 307.26
10 Other Oil Seeds 195.43 204.45 204.62
11 Edible Roots/ Potatoes 199.17 306.66 313.46
12 Stimulant And Spice Crops 319.25 481.15 541.61
13 Pulses 231.62 263.87 265.79
14 Sugar Crops 257.62 349.69 349.69
15 Fibre Crops 262.70 258.56 268.80
16 Unmanufactured Tobacco 318.02 347.72 349.31
17 Poultry 143.93 245.06 259.96
18 Milk From Bovine Animals 285.13 292.99 296.45
19 Eggs 201.16 196.46 198.65
20 Raw Animal Material/Wool 176.92 185.60 185.35
21 Hides And Fur Skins, Raw 93.47 59.92 57.49
22 Fuel Wood In Logs 284.65 300.39 300.39
23 Fishes Live Fresh Or Chilled 453.67 506.11 504.65
Ores/Minerals, Gas & Elect. 244.76 352.11 352.17
24 Coal Not Agglomerated 155.29 155.29 155.29
25 Natural Gas Liquefied 214.80 407.52 407.60
26 Salt & Pure Sodium Chloride 271.87 295.35 299.39
27 Electrical Energy 288.00 321.72 321.72
Food, Beverages, Tobacco, Textiles 243.64 272.22 272.15
28 Meat Of Animals 339.60 368.83 369.69
29 Vegetables & Fruit Juices 228.62 257.55 257.55
30 Dried Fruits & Nuts 302.02 344.42 344.42
31 Fruit Juices 188.55 202.70 205.36
32 Vegetable Oil Refined 159.08 175.96 176.84
33 Vegetable Ghee 130.88 149.40 152.14
34 Oil Cakes 240.72 265.98 257.04
35 Processed Liquid Milk 296.67 305.39 308.07
36 Milk And Cream In Solid Form 225.53 261.29 265.87
37 Ice Cream 286.26 300.49 302.60
38 Dairy Products N.E.C 282.17 303.63 314.70
39 Wheat Flour 194.82 213.96 221.49
40 Other Cereal Flour 218.82 235.55 237.39
41 Sugar Refined 207.69 287.15 288.17
42 Chocolate 100.00 109.63 109.63
43 Sugar Confectionary 127.25 128.15 128.15
44 Coffee And Tea 278.46 295.14 305.30
45 Spices 213.13 252.81 253.78
46 Other Food Products 300.74 323.23 323.23
47 Mineral Water 210.16 219.67 219.67
48 Beverages 176.55 181.25 181.25
49 Tobacco Products 319.65 393.80 393.80
50 Cotton Yarn 253.93 287.52 278.41
51 Nylon Yarn 143.99 143.99 143.99
52 Blended Yarn 201.84 214.02 212.52
53 Woven Fabrics 321.49 367.78 367.78
54 Cotton Fabrics 219.87 244.57 244.71
55 Other Fabrics 227.85 253.96 257.38
Cont’d

31
Inflation Monitor, September 2019

Table A11: Wholesale Price Index by Major Groups and Composite Commodities
Index
Items and Specifications Sep-18 Aug-19 Sep-19
56 Silk And Rayon Fabrics 188.81 199.83 199.83
57 Towels 305.52 298.17 298.17
58 Blankets 267.72 277.52 277.52
59 Bed Sheets 256.87 277.23 277.23
60 Quilts 222.32 232.74 232.74
61 Woolen Carpets 196.43 199.40 199.40
62 Synthetic Carpets 131.80 138.98 138.98
63 Hosiery Products 253.68 272.90 274.83
64 Ready Made Garments 204.85 230.61 230.61
65 Leather With Out Hairs 212.68 229.55 229.55
66 Other Leather N.E.C 207.02 443.31 443.31
67 Footwear’s 168.09 168.09 168.09
Other Transportable Goods 213.10 245.25 239.28
68 Timber 240.62 250.12 250.12
69 Printing Paper 172.70 174.76 174.76
70 Hard Board 291.67 291.67 291.67
71 Coke 163.45 163.45 163.45
72 Motor Sprit 156.81 199.07 191.31
73 Diesel Oil 230.43 291.12 276.84
74 Kerosene Oil 222.78 277.28 265.87
75 Furnace Oil 172.10 200.72 173.84
76 Mobil Oil 209.31 235.42 235.42
77 Chemicals 213.09 235.21 238.88
78 Dying Materials 150.72 194.38 194.38
79 Fertilizers 242.31 272.67 280.95
80 Pesticides 312.32 325.56 335.98
81 Insecticides 145.02 150.84 150.84
82 Paints & Varnishes 354.53 391.52 396.48
83 Medicines 180.06 196.75 199.77
84 Soaps & Detergent 193.52 204.45 208.29
85 Auto Tyres 184.52 228.82 229.12
86 Plastic Products 243.75 251.41 251.64
87 Glass Sheets 304.55 351.28 351.28
88 Other Glass Articles 318.10 351.41 351.41
89 Ceramics And Sanitary 243.24 263.26 264.94
90 Bricks Blocks And Tiles 225.43 249.76 250.28
91 Cement 234.41 235.70 237.31
92 Bed Foams 176.50 198.17 199.00
93 Matches 171.36 174.27 174.27
Metal Product Machinery & Equip 187.64 204.16 205.60
94 Pig Iron 128.97 128.97 128.97
95 Steel Bars & Sheets 168.49 206.94 208.35
96 Pipe Fittings 234.48 276.22 276.22
97 Steel Products 183.35 207.30 207.30
98 Engines And Motors 116.98 116.98 116.98
99 Vacuum Pumps 123.69 123.69 123.69
100 Air Conditioners 203.80 223.39 223.39
101 Cultivators 190.66 190.66 190.66
102 Chuff Cutter 153.46 153.46 153.46
103 Tractors 216.82 226.93 226.93
104 Lathe Machines 241.06 348.09 348.09
105 Concrete Mixer 138.83 138.83 138.83
106 Fridge,Wash& Sew Mach, Iron,Fan 229.31 266.02 274.56
107 Electrical Wires 208.22 240.96 245.55
108 Lighting Equipments 174.04 179.06 179.06
109 Radio And Television 140.42 164.81 164.81
110 Motor Vehicles 218.11 262.69 262.69
111 Motor Cycles 134.21 161.98 162.53
112 Bicycles 194.31 196.16 196.16

32
 State Bank of Pakistan

Table A12: Price Indices - Base 2007-08 = 100

CPI WPI SPI *
Period
Overall Food Non-food Overall Food Non-Food
2009-10 128.85 139.05 122.73 135.40 136.85 134.48 139.84
2010-11 146.45 164.10 135.87 164.17 159.26 167.27 164.02
2011-12 162.57 182.20 150.80 181.28 181.32 181.26 178.67
2012-13 174.53 195.18 162.16 194.61 197.21 192.95 189.64
2013-14 189.58 212.74 175.69 210.48 213.04 208.85 208.66
2014-15 198.16 220.20 184.95 209.85 226.22 199.47 212.61
2015-16 203.82 224.78 191.25 207.64 234.69 190.47 216.23
2016-17 212.29 226.59 233.37 216.02 248.74 195.27 220.10
2017-18 220.62 232.95 237.59 223.52 253.34 204.61 223.60
2018-19 236.81 242.61 248.44 250.28 269.48 238.10 240.94

2017 Jun 215.45 234.37 204.11 217.77 248.90 198.02 220.68

Jul 216.19 234.47 205.23 217.24 249.95 196.63 219.28
Aug 216.61 235.38 205.36 217.96 251.05 196.96 219.82
Sep 217.98 238.43 205.72 218.08 252.27 196.39 223.38
Oct 219.61 239.89 207.45 219.41 254.40 197.22 225.15
Nov 220.42 240.79 208.21 220.20 252.83 199.49 226.29
Dec 220.20 239.43 208.67 221.00 253.31 200.49 225.66

2018 Jan 220.27 236.92 210.29 224.99 252.74 207.38 224.13

Feb 219.58 234.31 210.75 224.66 250.56 208.23 222.19
Mar 220.25 233.67 212.21 225.22 251.00 208.52 221.67
Apr 224.25 237.08 216.56 228.07 254.52 211.28 223.13
May 225.40 239.36 217.03 230.98 257.57 214.11 224.51
Jun 226.67 241.35 217.87 234.40 259.86 218.25 228.00
Jul 228.80 242.74 220.45 240.04 263.23 225.32 229.18
Aug 229.27 243.25 220.89 241.93 262.42 228.93 228.72
Sep 229.12 241.65 221.61 238.25 260.81 223.95 228.27
Oct 234.49 246.27 227.43 248.19 266.83 236.36 235.22
Nov 234.75 245.08 228.56 249.92 264.02 240.97 238.35
Dec 233.78 241.70 229.03 247.72 261.58 238.93 238.12

2019 Jan 236.11 242.53 232.26 247.21 263.50 236.87 239.07

Feb 237.61 246.03 232.56 249.44 265.38 239.32 244.35
Mar 240.98 253.20 233.66 253.67 272.71 241.59 248.19
Apr 244.03 257.44 235.99 259.57 280.77 246.11 250.70
May 245.94 260.21 237.39 263.29 285.88 248.95 253.78
Jun 246.82 261.13 238.24 264.15 286.61 249.89 257.34
Jul 252.46 265.16 244.85 272.34 287.18 262.93 263.01
Aug 255.94 272.11 246.25 274.74 290.27 264.89 270.51
Sep 257.87 276.32 246.81 275.49 294.92 263.17 273.54

*: all groups combined

33
Inflation Monitor, September 2019

Table A13: International Commodity Prices/Indices

Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19

Energy
Crude Oil (US$ per barrel) * 59.8 61.5 57.7 60.0

Energy Index (2010 = 100) 73.1 74.9 70.4 73.7

Food
Rice ($/MT) 420.0 416.0 430.0 427.0

Wheat ($/MT) 206.1 196.2 181.1 189.6

Sugar (US cent/ pound)^ 0.28 0.28 0.27 0.26

Palm Oil ($/MT) 552.2 543.9 586.1 580.3

Soybean Oil ($/MT) 742.9 748.2 793.2 779.3

Non-Food Non-Energy
Cotton Outlook 'A' Index #^ 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6

Metal Price Index (2010 = 100) 79.4 80.7 78.9 80.5

Copper ($/MT) 5,882.2 5,941.2 5,709.4 5,759.3

Aluminum ($/MT) 1,756.0 1,797.0 1,740.7 1,753.5

Iron Ore ($ cents/dry MT) 108.9 120.2 93.1 93.1

Tin ($/MT) 19,193.2 17,977.9 16,609.0 16,830.6

Nickel ($/MT) 11,943.9 13,546.3 15,748.6 17,656.9

Zinc ($/MT) 2,601.2 2,446.5 2,273.0 2,331.6

Lead ($/MT) 1,899.7 1,975.6 2,044.6 2,071.9

Uranium ($/MT)@ 24.6 25.4 25.3 25.7

DAP ($/MT) 314.9 307.5 292.9 285.8

Urea ($/MT) 247.5 263.5 262.5 237.8

Source: World Bank for all variables / indices except Uranium which is taken from Cameco (World Largest Uranium
Producer)
@ Data has been taken from Cameco website as it is not available in World Bank dataset.
^ The measurement unit for sugar and Cotton is US cent/ pound in IMF data source, whereas it is US dollar / kg in World bank
dataset. The result of two datasets can be reconciled using conversion formula: 1US $ / kilogram = 45.359237 U.S. cents /
pound
$/MT = US$ per metric tonne.
* Crude Oil (Petroleum), simple average of three spot prices; Dated Brent, West Texas Intermediate, and the Dubai fateh
# Middling 1-3/32 inch staple, liverpool Index "A", average of the cheapest Cts/lb five of fourteen styles, CIF Liverpool
(Cotton Outlook, Liverpool). From January 1968 to May 1981 strict middling 1-1/16 inch staple. Prior to 1968, Mexican 1-
1/16.2/
DAP: Diammonium Phosphate

34
 State Bank of Pakistan

Table 14: CPI Data Series Original and Seasonally Adjusted

Original Series
Period FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20
Jul 201.76 210.08 216.19 228.80 252.46
Aug 202.25 209.46 216.61 229.27 255.94
Sep 202.04 209.88 217.98 229.12 257.87
Oct 203.03 211.57 219.61 234.49
Nov 204.22 212.01 220.42 234.75
Dec 203.06 210.57 220.20 233.78
Jan 203.49 210.94 220.27 236.11
Feb 202.98 211.54 219.58 237.61
Mar 203.28 213.32 220.25 240.98
Apr 206.43 216.30 224.25 244.03
May 205.99 216.33 225.40 245.94
Jun 207.30 215.45 226.68 246.82
Seasonally Adjusted Series
Jul 200.77 209.07 215.19 227.80 251.41
Aug 201.09 208.30 215.49 228.17 254.77
Sep 200.95 208.82 216.95 228.14 256.77
Oct 201.30 209.82 217.84 232.65
Nov 203.03 210.78 219.15 233.43
Dec 203.98 211.47 221.11 234.72
Jan 204.26 211.79 221.22 237.13
Feb 205.08 213.70 221.78 239.91
Mar 205.13 215.26 222.23 242.41
Apr 206.29 216.11 224.02 243.76
May 206.22 216.49 225.48 245.97
Jun 207.70 215.79 226.94 247.05

35
Inflation Monitor, September 2019

Table 15: CPI Food Data Series Original and Seasonally Adjusted
Original Series
Period FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY19
Jul 224.14 234.69 234.47 242.74 265.16
Aug 224.86 232.48 235.38 243.25 272.11
Sep 223.87 232.80 238.43 241.65 276.32
Oct 224.86 234.68 239.89 246.27
Nov 227.55 235.17 240.79 245.08
Dec 223.90 230.69 239.43 241.70
Jan 222.58 228.45 236.92 242.53
Feb 221.07 229.19 234.31 246.03
Mar 222.25 233.47 233.67 253.20
Apr 227.53 237.50 237.08 257.44
May 225.84 237.01 239.36 260.21
Jun 228.95 234.37 241.37 261.13
Seasonally Adjusted Series
Jul 222.41 232.95 232.81 241.13 263.53
Aug 221.98 229.59 232.57 240.50 269.16
Sep 220.98 229.94 235.65 238.95 273.26
Oct 221.52 231.33 236.53 242.81
Nov 224.59 232.18 237.77 242.05
Dec 225.44 232.19 240.94 243.26
Jan 225.04 231.22 240.01 245.90
Feb 225.93 234.17 239.34 251.23
Mar 225.58 236.92 237.09 254.96
Apr 227.89 237.76 237.26 257.54
May 226.38 237.38 239.52 260.20
Jun 229.51 234.70 241.45 261.05

36
 State Bank of Pakistan

Table 16: CPI Monthly & Average Seasonal Factors

Period FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 Average
Jul 100.49 100.48 100.46 100.44 100.42 100.46
Aug 100.58 100.56 100.52 100.48 100.46 100.52
Sep 100.54 100.51 100.47 100.43 100.43 100.48
Oct 100.86 100.83 100.81 100.79 100.82
Nov 100.59 100.58 100.58 100.57 100.58
Dec 99.55 99.57 99.59 99.60 99.58
Jan 99.62 99.60 99.57 99.57 99.59
Feb 98.98 98.99 99.01 99.04 99.00
Mar 99.10 99.10 99.11 99.41 99.18
Apr 100.07 100.09 100.10 100.11 100.09
May 99.89 99.92 99.96 99.99 99.94
Jun 99.81 99.84 99.88 99.91 99.86

Table 17: CPI Food Monthly & Average Seasonal Factors

Period FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 Average
Jul 100.78 100.75 100.71 100.67 100.62 100.70
Aug 101.30 101.26 101.21 101.14 101.10 101.20
Sep 101.31 101.24 101.18 101.13 101.12 101.20
Oct 101.51 101.45 101.42 101.43 101.45
Nov 101.32 101.29 101.27 101.25 101.28
Dec 99.32 99.36 99.37 99.36 99.35
Jan 98.91 98.80 98.71 98.63 98.76
Feb 97.85 97.88 97.90 97.93 97.89
Mar 98.52 98.54 98.56 98.57 98.55
Apr 99.84 99.89 99.93 99.96 99.91
May 99.76 99.84 99.93 100.01 99.89
Jun 99.76 99.86 99.97 100.03 99.90

37
Inflation Monitor, September 2019

Table 18: CPI (Month-on-Month) Original & Seasonally Adjusted

Original Series
Period FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20
Jul 0.43 1.34 0.34 0.94 2.29
Aug 0.24 -0.30 0.19 0.21 1.38
Sep -0.10 0.20 0.63 -0.06 0.75
Oct 0.49 0.81 0.75 2.33
Nov 0.59 0.21 0.37 0.11
Dec -0.57 -0.68 -0.10 -0.41
Jan 0.21 0.18 0.03 1.00
Feb -0.25 0.28 -0.31 0.64
Mar 0.15 0.84 0.31 1.42
Apr 1.55 1.40 1.82 1.27
May -0.21 0.01 0.51 0.78
Jun 0.64 -0.41 0.57 0.36
Seasonally Adjusted Series
Jul -0.29 0.66 -0.28 0.38 1.76
Aug 0.16 -0.37 0.14 0.16 1.34
Sep -0.07 0.25 0.68 -0.02 0.78
Oct 0.17 0.48 0.41 1.98
Nov 0.86 0.46 0.60 0.34
Dec 0.47 0.33 0.89 0.56
Jan 0.14 0.15 0.05 1.02
Feb 0.40 0.90 0.26 1.17
Mar 0.03 0.73 0.20 1.04
Apr 0.57 0.40 0.81 0.56
May -0.04 0.18 0.65 0.91
Jun 0.72 -0.33 0.65 0.44

38
 State Bank of Pakistan

Table 19: CPI Food (Month-on-Month ) Original & Seasonally Adjusted Series
Original Series
Period FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20
Jul 0.13 2.50 0.04 0.57 1.54
Aug 0.32 -0.94 0.39 0.21 2.62
Sep -0.44 0.14 1.29 -0.66 1.55
Oct 0.44 0.81 0.61 1.91
Nov 1.20 0.21 0.37 -0.48
Dec -1.61 -1.90 -0.56 -1.38
Jan -0.59 -0.97 -1.05 0.34
Feb -0.68 0.32 -1.11 1.44
Mar 0.54 1.87 -0.27 2.91
Apr 2.38 1.73 1.46 1.67
May -0.74 -0.21 0.96 1.08
Jun 1.38 -1.11 0.84 0.35
Seasonally Adjusted Series
Jul -0.99 1.50 -0.80 -0.13 0.95
Aug -0.19 -1.44 -0.10 -0.26 2.14
Sep -0.45 0.15 1.32 -0.65 1.52
Oct 0.25 0.61 0.37 1.61
Nov 1.38 0.37 0.52 -0.31
Dec 0.38 0.00 1.33 0.50
Jan -0.18 -0.42 -0.39 1.08
Feb 0.40 1.28 -0.28 2.17
Mar -0.15 1.18 -0.94 1.49
Apr 1.02 0.35 0.07 1.01
May -0.66 -0.16 0.95 1.03
Jun 1.38 -1.13 0.81 0.33

39
Inflation Monitor, September 2019

Figure A1: CPI Non-food Inflation (percent)

YoY 12mma MoM (RHS)
Clothing & Footwear Housing, Water, Elec, Gas and Other Fuels
20 10 20 10
15 15
10 5 10 5
5 5
0 0
0 0
-5 -5 -5 -5
-10 -10
-15 -10 -15 -10

Furnishing & Household Equip. Maintenance etc Health

20 10 20 10
15 15
10 5 10 5

5 5
0 0
0 0
-5 -5 -5
-5
-10 -10
-15 -10 -15 -10

Transport Communication
20 10 20 10
15 15
5 10 5
10
5 5
0 0
0 0
-5 -5 -5
-5
-10 -10
-15 -10 -15 -10

Recreation & Culture Education

20 10 20 10
15 15
10 5 10 5
5 5
0 0
0 0
-5 -5 -5 -5
-10 -10
-15 -10 -15 -10
Nov-17
Jan-18

Nov-18
Jan-19
Sep-17

Sep-18

Sep-19
May-18

May-19
Jul-18

Jul-19
Mar-18

Mar-19
Nov-17
Jan-18

Nov-18
Jan-19
Sep-17

Sep-18

Sep-19
May-18

May-19
Jul-18

Jul-19
Mar-18

Mar-19

40
 Frequency (Counts of items) Frequency (Counts of items)

0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160

0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
<-8
<-8
-8 to -6 -8 to -6
-6 to -4 -6 to -4
-4 to -2 -4 to -2
-2 to 0 -2 to 0
0 to 2 0 to 2
2 to 4

YoY price changes

2 to 4
Frequency (No. of items)

4 to 6 4 to 6
6 to 8 6 to 8
% Cumulative frequency (RHS)

Price intervals %
8 to 10 8 to 10
10 to 12

Price intervals %
10 to 12
12 to 14 12 to 14

12-month ma food price changes

14 to 16 14 to 16
16 to 18 16 to 18
18 to 20 18 to 20
>20 >20

0
0

20
40
60
80
20
40
60
80

100
100

Cumulative Frequency % Cumulative Frequency %

Total items in CPI basket (487), Food items (139) and Non-food items (348)
Frequency (Counts of items) Frequency (Counts of items)

0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160

<-8
<-8
-8 to -6
-8 to -6
-6 to -4
-6 to -4
-4 to -2
Figure A2: Frequency Distribution of Price Changes of CPI Items, September 2019 - YoY

-4 to -2
-2 to 0 -2 to 0
0 to 2 0 to 2
2 to 4 2 to 4
4 to 6 4 to 6
6 to 8 6 to 8
12-month ma price changes

8 to 10 8 to 10
Price intervals %

Price intervals %
10 to 12 10 to 12
12 to 14 12 to 14
12-month ma non-food price changes

14 to 16 14 to 16
16 to 18 16 to 18
18 to 20 18 to 20
>20 >20
0

0
20
40
60
80

20
40
60
80
100

100

Cumulative Frequency % Cumulative Frequency %

State Bank of Pakistan

41
42
Frequency (Counts of items)
Frequency (Counts of items)

0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
<-8
<-8
-8 to -6 -8 to -6
-6 to -4 -6 to -4
-4 to -2 -4 to -2
-2 to 0 -2 to 0
0 to 2 0 to 2
2 to 4 2 to 4
Frequency (No. of items)

4 to 6 4 to 6
6 to 8 6 to 8
% Cumulative frequency (RHS)

Price intervals %
8 to 10 8 to 10

Price intervals %
10 to 12 10 to 12
12 to 14 12 to 14
14 to 16 14 to 16
16 to 18 16 to 18
18 to 20
Inflation Monitor, September 2019

18 to 20
MoM price changes

>20
>20

12-month ma food price changes-MoM

0
20
40
60
80

0
100

20
40
60
80
100
Cumulative Frequency %
Cumulative Frequency %

Total items in CPI basket (487), Food items (139) and Non-food items (348)
Frequency (Counts of items) Frequency (Counts of items)

0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450

<-8
<-8
-8 to -6
-8 to -6
-6 to -4
-6 to -4
-4 to -2
-4 to -2
-2 to 0
Figure A2.1: Frequency Distribution of Price Changes of CPI Items, September 2019 - MoM

-2 to 0
0 to 2
0 to 2
2 to 4
2 to 4
4 to 6
4 to 6
6 to 8
8 to 10 6 to 8
10 to 12 8 to 10

Price intervals %
12 to 14 10 to 12
Price intervals %

14 to 16 12 to 14
16 to 18 14 to 16
18 to 20 16 to 18
>20 18 to 20
>20

0
20
40
60
80
0

100
20
40
60
80

12-month ma non-food price changes-MoM

100

12-month ma price changes-MoM

Cumulative Frequency %
Cumulative Frequency %
 Frequency (Counts of items) Frequency (Counts of items)

0
10
20
30
40
50
0
10
20
30
40
50
<-8
<-8
-8 to -6
-8 to -6
-6 to -4
-6 to -4
-4 to -2
-4 to -2
-2 to 0
-2 to 0
0 to 2 0 to 2
2 to 4

YoY price changes

2 to 4
4 to 6 4 to 6
Frequency (No. of items)

6 to 8 6 to 8

Price intervals %
% Cumulative frequency (RHS)

Price intervals %
8 to 10 8 to 10

12-month ma food price changes

10 to 12 10 to 12
12 to 14 12 to 14
14 to 16 14 to 16
16 to 18 16 to 18
18 to 20 18 to 20
>20 >20

0
20
40
60
80

20
40
60
80
100

100
Cumulative Frequency % Cumulative Frequency %

Frequency (Counts of items) Frequency (Counts of items)

0
10
20
30
40
50
0
10
20
30
40
50

Total commodities in WPI basket (112), Food items (40) and Non-food items (72)
<-8 <-8
-8 to -6 -8 to -6
-6 to -4 -6 to -4
-4 to -2 -4 to -2
-2 to 0 -2 to 0
0 to 2 0 to 2
Figure A3: Frequency Distribution of Price Changes of WPI Commodities, September 2019 - YoY

2 to 4 2 to 4
4 to 6 4 to 6
6 to 8 6 to 8
Price intervals %
12-month ma price changes

8 to 10 8 to 10

Price intervals %
10 to 12 10 to 12
12 to 14 12 to 14
12-month ma non-food price changes

14 to 16 14 to 16
16 to 18 16 to 18
18 to 20 18 to 20
>20 >20
0

0
20
40
60
80

20
40
60
80
100

100

Cumulative Frequency % Cumulative Frequency %

State Bank of Pakistan

43
Inflation Monitor, September 2019

`Figure A4: Group- wise/ Overall Inflation Diffusion Index (IDI) and respective / overall YoY Inflation (percent)

Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages Group Furnishing & Household Equip. Group [4.21%] Recreation & Culture Group [2.02%]
[34.83%]
FNAB-IDI (LHS) Overall-IDI (LHS) FHE-IDI (LHS) Overall-IDI (LHS) RC-IDI (LHS) Overall-IDI (LHS)
FNAB Inflation- YoY Overall Inflation FHE Inflation- YoY Overall Inflation RC Inflation- YoY Overall Inflation
120 35 120 35 120 35
100 30 100 30 100 30
25 25 25
80 80 80
20 20 20
60 15 60 15 60 15
40 10 40 10 40 10
20 5 20 5 20 5
0 0 0 0 0 0
-5 -5 -5
-20 -20 -20
-10 -10 -10
-40 -15 -40 -15 -40 -15
-60 -20 -60 -20 -60 -20

Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco Group [1.41%] Health Group [2.19%] Education Group [3.94%]

ABT-IDI (LHS) Overall-IDI (LHS) H-IDI (LHS) Overall-IDI (LHS) Edu-IDI (LHS) Overall-IDI (LHS)
ABT Inflation- YoY Overall Inflation H Inflation- YoY Overall Inflation Edu Inflation- YoY Overall Inflation

120 40 120 35 120 35

100 35 100 30 100 30
30 25 25
80 80 80
25 20 20
60 20 60 60 15
15
40 15 40 10 40 10
10 5 20 5
20 20
5 0
0 0 0
0 0 -5
-5 -5 -20
-20 -20 -10
-10 -10
-40 -40 -40 -15
-15 -15
-60 -20 -60 -20 -60 -20

Clothing & Footwear Group [7.57%]

Transport Group [7.20%] Restaurant & Hotels Group [1.23%]
CF- IDI (LHS) Overall-IDI (LHS) T-IDI (LHS) Overall-IDI (LHS) RH-IDI (LHS) Overall-IDI (LHS)
CF Inflation- YoY Overall Inflation T Inflation- YoY Overall Inflation RH Inflation- YoY Overall Inflation
120 35 120 35 120 35
100 30 100 30 100 30
25 25 25
80 80 80
20 20 20
60 15 60 15 60 15
40 10 40 10 40 10
20 5 20 5 20 5
0 0 0 0 0
0
-5 -5 -5
-20 -20 -20
-10 -10 -10
-40 -40 -15 -40 -15
-15
-60 -20 -60 -20 -60 -20

Housing, Water, Elect. Gas Group [29.41%]

Communication Group [3.22%] Miscellaneous Group [2.76%]
HWEG-IDI (LHS) Overall-IDI (LHS) Com-IDI (LHS) Overall-IDI (LHS) Misc-IDI (LHS) Overall-IDI (LHS)
HWEG Inflation- YoY Overall Inflation Com Inflation- YoY Overall Inflation Misc Inflation- YoY Overall Inflation

120 35 120 35 120 35

100 30 100 30 100 30
80 25 80 25 80 25
20 20 20
60 15 60 15 60 15
40 10 40 10 40 10
20 5 20 5 20 5
0 0 0 0 0 0
-5 -5 -5
-20 -10 -20 -10 -20 -10
-40 -15 -40 -15 -40 -15
-60 -20 -60 -20 -60 -20
Sep-17

Sep-18

Sep-19

Sep-17

Sep-18

Sep-19

Sep-17

Sep-18

Sep-19
Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-18

Jul-19
Mar-18

Mar-19

Mar-18

Mar-19

Mar-18

Mar-19
Nov-17
Jan-18

Nov-18
Jan-19

Nov-17
Jan-18

Nov-18
Jan-19

Nov-17
Jan-18

Nov-18
Jan-19
May-18

May-19

May-18

May-19

May-18

May-19

Numbers in square brackets show the weights of respective groups in the CPI baskets.

44
 State Bank of Pakistan

Annexure B

Technical Notes

1. All the three measures of inflation, viz. CPI, WPI and SPI are computed by
the following Laspeyres Index formula:
 Pj 
I t   w0j  t j 
j  P0 

Where It is price index, w0j is weight of commodity j in the overall basket,

Pt j is price of commodity j in period t and P0 j is its price in the base year.

2. Base year for all the indices is the year 2007-08.

3. CPI basket contains 487 consumers’ goods; WPI basket contains 463 items;
SPI contains 53 items.

4. YoY inflation is the percent change of an index in a given month over the
index in the same month of the last year. It is computed as follows:
It
t  (  1)  100
I t 12

5. Period average inflation is the percent change of the average index during the
period from July to the given month of a fiscal year over the average index
during the corresponding period of the last year. It is computed as follows:

 t  
  I t i 

 t  t 12 
i 0
 1  100
 
  I t 12 i 
 i 0 

Where v is the serial number of the month of July of current fiscal year in a
given time series.

6. Monthly inflation is the percent change of an index in a given month over the
index in the preceding month. It is computed as follows:

45
Inflation Monitor, September 2019

It
t  (  1)  100
I t 1

7. 12-month moving average inflation (Long-run trend inflation) is the percent

change of 12-month moving average of a price index; it is computed as
follows:
 11 
  I t i 
~ 
 t  11 i 0
 1  100
 
  I t 12 i 
 i 0 
8. Core Inflation is defined as the persistent component of measured inflation
that excludes volatile and controlled prices. It reflects the normal supply and
demand conditions in the economy. Core inflation is computed by the
following three methods:
a) Non-food, Non-energy inflation (NFNE inflation); it is computed by
excluding food group and energy items (kerosene oil, petrol, diesel,
CNG, electricity and natural gas) from the CPI basket.
b) 20% trimmed-mean inflation; it is computed through the following
steps:
i. All CPI items are arranged in ascending order according to
YoY/12-month moving average/monthly/period average
changes in their price indices in a given month.
ii. 20 percent of the items showing extreme changes are
excluded with 10 percent of the items at the top of the list
(corresponding to cumulative weight of 90% or more) and
10 percent of the items at the bottom of the list
(corresponding to cumulative weight of 10 percent or less).
iii. The weighted mean of the changes in price indices of the
rest of the items is core inflation.

c) Relatively Stable Component of CPI (RSC-CPI) developed by State

Bank of Pakistan is a hybrid method based on permanent exclusion
criteria. Volatile price items, to be excluded in the newly proposed
measure RSC-CPI, are identified by analyzing the list and frequency
of commodities that have been trimmed frequently in the past while
computing monthly weighted trimmed mean measure. Commodities

46
 State Bank of Pakistan

that were trimmed out 13 and above times since July 2008 to
February 2013 are selected for permanently excluding from the CPI
basket. This newly developed component includes a mix of both
food and non-food commodities that show persistent price behavior.
Fifty Commodities included comprise relatively stable component
(RSC-CPI) with a weight of 67.69. The detailed methodology of
RSC-CPI and group wise items along their weights can be viewed at
the following link;
http://www.sbp.org.pk/publications/wpapers/2013/wp66.pdf

9. Weighted contribution of different items (or sub-groups) to total inflation is

worked out as below:
Let the overall index (It) is the weighted average of price indexes of
individual items or sub-groups (Iit), i.e.

I t   wi  I it
i

The weighted contribution of a single item (or a sub-group) to overall

inflation is defined as below:

 
Cit   it 12  wi   it 
 t 

Where C it : Contribution of ith item to the overall inflation

I it 12
 it 12  ; i.e. ratio of item’s index to overall index in the
I t 12

reference month

wi : Weights of ith item

 it : Inflation of ith item

 t : Overall inflation

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Inflation Monitor, September 2019

10. Annualized rate of inflation (based on a month-on-month rate ) is computed

as follows
Annualized = ((1+ )12-1) 100

Methodology for Estimating Inflation Diffusion Index for Pakistan

We constructed an index to measure the spread of inflation in the 487 commodities of

the CPI basket. It is based on month-on-month (MoM) change in the prices of these
commodities and can be obtained by estimating what is known as an ‘inflation
diffusion index’ (IDI) as below:

Thus, it is the difference between the share of items with increasing prices (i.e.
depicting inflation) and the share of items with falling prices (i.e. depicting deflation)
in CPI amongst the commodities for which prices have altered or remained constant1.

Based upon commodity level price data from July 2001 to February 2011 we
computed inflation diffusion indices overall (general) CPI basket and for all groups
in CPI basket (except House Rent Index being single item). A simple analysis2
suggests that IDI is a leading indicator for Pakistan’s YoY inflation.

1 We do not observe the prices of certain commodities (like the seasonal items) during certain periods of
time. To calculate the inflation diffusion index we consider the commodities for which prices have been
reported (irrespective of changed or not) during the month under review.
2
Formal test shows one way ‘Granger’ causality from IDI to YoY inflation.
48