NRB - Working - Paper NRB WP 04 Apr - 2008 PDF
NRB - Working - Paper NRB WP 04 Apr - 2008 PDF
NRB Working Paper
Bhubanesh Pant
Research Department
April 2008
The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not
necessarily represent those of the NRB. Working Papers describe research work by the
author(s) and are published to elicit further comments.
Abstract
The potential for remittances to reduce poverty and economic vulnerability, improve
family welfare and stimulate economic development has been of special interest to the
governments everywhere. For this to take place, the formulation and implementation of
effective remittance-augmenting policies and strategies is the core. This paper thus looks
at the different policies initiated by some countries. Policy alternatives for Nepal are
then suggested for mobilizing remittances for productive use.
2
Contents
Page
I. Background 4
V. Nepal's Experiences 9
VII. Conclusions 13
References 14
3
I. BACKGROUND
Migrant remittances represent the most direct, immediate and far reaching benefit to
migrants and their countries of origin. They are a more constant source of income to
developing countries than official development assistance, foreign direct investment and
other private flows. Moreover, the emergence of remittances as a new strategy for
poverty alleviation in developing countries has spurred multilateral institutions,
international organizations, and national governments, among others, to seriously study,
identify and implement measures on how these inflows could be maximized and then
harnessed for the development of migrants’ countries of origin.
The term “remittances” basically refer to the transfers, in cash or in kind, from a migrant
to household residents in the country of origin. The IMF considers a wider definition and
incorporates three categories, that is, a) workers' remittances or transfers in cash or in
kind from migrants to resident households in the country of origin, b) compensation to
employees or the wages, salaries and other remuneration, in cash or in kind, paid to
individuals who work in a country other than where they legally reside and c) migrant
transfers which denote capital transfers of financial assets made by migrants as they
move from one country to another and stay for more than one year. As stated in the BOP
Manual (5th edition, 1993): "Workers' remittances covers current transfers by migrants
who are employed in new economies and considered residents there. (A migrant is a
person who comes to an economy and stays, or is expected to stay, for a year or more).
Workers' remittances often involve related persons. Persons who work for and stay in
new economies for less than a year are considered non-residents; their transactions are
appropriate mainly to the component for compensation of employees."1 The Nepal Rastra
Bank (NRB), the country’s central banking authority, follows the IMF Manual in
recording remittances or migrant transfers in its BOP computation.
Since the end of the 1990s, there has been a renewed interest in the financial resources
that migrants send back to their countries of origin due to the potential contribution to the
economic development of the receiving regions. It is generally acknowledged that
foreign remittances, whether channeled through formal or informal modes from host
countries to receiving countries, contribute positively towards the economic development
both at the household level and country level, although remittances through formal
channels are more amenable to policy interventions and are generally believed to have
greater developmental impacts.
The rest of this paper is planned as follows. The next section examines the recent trends
in global remittances followed by the impact on the economy of migrants' home
countries. Some general policy measures for employing remittances into productive use
are adumbrated followed by the case of South Asia. Part V discusses the impact of
remittances on the Nepalese economy and the policy arrangements initiated so far for
attracting more remittances through the official channel while Part VI spells out some
policy alternatives for mobilizing remittances and using them productively.
1
For details, see IMF (1993), p. 75.
4
II. TRENDS AND IMPACT
Remittances can generate a positive effect on the economy thorough various channels
such as savings, investment, growth, consumption, and poverty and income distribution.
At the national level, remittances contribute significantly to GDP. Remittances can also
contribute to stability by lowering the probability of current account reversals. Since they
are a cheap and stable source of foreign currencies, remittances are likely to stem investor
panic when international reserves are taking a downward trend or external debt is rising.3
At the community level, remittances create multiplier effects in the domestic economy,
producing employment opportunities and spurring new economic and social
infrastructure and services, especially where effective structures and institutions have
been set up to pool and direct remittances. Where these have been set up and
encouraged, and where the state is cooperative, remittances can bring about a change,
especially in remote rural areas.
Remittances have been found to rise when the recipient economy incurs a downturn in
activity or macroeconomic shocks owing to financial crisis, natural disaster, or political
conflict. By making up for foreign exchange losses due to these shocks, remittances may
smooth consumption and thus play a part in maintaining the economic stability of
recipient countries.4
The poverty reducing and income distribution effect of remittances is also significant.
This case is based on the fact that the recipients of remittances are often low-income
families whose offspring left the country to work abroad.
2
In real terms, however, remittance flows to developing countries are expected to fall from 2 percent of
GDP in 2007 to 1.8 percent in 2008. After many years of strong growth, remittance flows to developing
countries began to slow down in the third quarter of 2008. This slowdown is expected to deepen further in
2009 owing to the global financial crisis, though the exact magnitude of the growth moderation is hard to
estimate largely due to the uncertainties about global growth, commodity prices and exchange rates. For
details, see Ratha et. al (2008)
3
These beneficial impacts are particularly strong for countries where remittances are above 3 percent of
GDP as illustrated by Bugamelli and Paterno (2006).
4
The benefits of remittances in terms of providing a cushion to the economy in the perspective of
macroeconomic shocks are highlighted in Agunias (2006).
5
Remittances assist in augmenting national income by providing foreign exchange and
raising national savings and investment as well as by providing hard currency to finance
essential imports hence curtailing any BOP crisis.5 Since they bear no interest, do not
have to be repaid, and their utilization is not tied to specific investment projects with high
import content, they have a more positive effect on BOP than other monetary flows such
as direct investments or loans.
Some studies have illustrated that remittances can have a deleterious impact on national
economic growth in the medium and longer term.6 Remittances can fuel inflation,
disadvantage the tradable sector by appreciating the real exchange rate, and reduce labor
market participation rates as receiving households opt to live off of migrants’ transfers
rather than by working. Moreover, remittances’ contribution to growth and poverty might
reduce the incentives for implementing sound macroeconomic policy or to institute any
needed structural reforms.
Some also argue that remittances do little to stimulate development in the countries of
origin. A few studies undertaken relating to the uses of remittances show that savings
produced by remittances are frequently directed to purchases of non-productive assets.7
Remittances were also seen to increase dependency. These inflows are quite volatile
since countries that depend too much on them may face economic shocks when the flow
is disrupted.8
There are many policy instruments the government can use to improve development
impact of remittances and enhance the flow of remittances through the formal channel.
Which policy instruments the government selects depends on the desired goal it intends
to achieve. First, if the government’s objective is to capture a portion of remittances for
development purposes, then the policy instrument will be to impose taxes or levies on
remittance transfers, or to explore voluntary check-off for charitable purposes. But,
taxing remittances may be counterproductive.9 Second, if the government's objective is to
stimulate transfers through formal channels and to stimulate capital availability, then the
5
This aspect is delineated in Buch et. al (2002).
6
. For details, see Oxfam Novib (2006).
7
Evidences from microeconomic surveys demonstrate that purchases of land, housing and other real assets,
are the most common uses of remittances in the country of origin. In some instances this led to ballooning
prices of these real assets.
8
The Gulf war, for instance, put Jordan, Sudan and Yemen, among others, in difficulty owing to the
massive return of emigrants. For details, see El-Sakka (1997).
9
Taxing remittances may be counterproductive from an economic standpoint as this could redirect
remittances from the formal channels to the informal channels, thus, worsening the balance of payments.
6
policy instruments should focus on the sale of remittance bonds, opening of foreign
currency accounts, premium interest rate accounts, promoting transfers through
microfinance institutions, promoting financial literacy, and banking the unbanked.
Foreign currency accounts and bonds have proven to be viable means of raising funds.
This should be targeted at the diasporas' middle-to-upper income members.10
Moreover, if the goal is to stimulate investment of remittances then the government needs
to reach out to remittance receivers through micro finance infrastructures. The
government could also reach out to its migrants abroad through migrants’ service
bureaus, and tax breaks on imported capital goods by migrants.
Since a long time, governments of migrants’ home countries have employed a large
variety of policy measures that target different elements in the system. Multilateral
agencies such as the World Bank and the IMF and bilateral development agencies such as
the DFID of the UK have also examined different policy options and recommendations.
A list of policy measures based on this array of experiences is delineated in Table 1.
Table 1
Policy Measures to Enhance the Development Impact of Remittances
Objective Measure
Capturing a share of remittances for Taxation of emigrants
development purposes Duties or levies on remittance transfers
Voluntary check-off for charitable purposes (or transfer forms)
Stimulating transfers through formal Remittance bonds
channels and/or stimulating capita Foreign currency accounts
availability Premium interest rate accounts
Promoting/enabling transfers through microfinance institutions
(MFIs)
Promoting financial literacy/banking the unbanked
10
For example, India and Pakistan maintain interest rates on foreign currency accounts that are higher than
domestic or Euro-currency deposits.
7
IV. POLICIES IN SOUTH ASIA
It is growingly acknowledged in South Asia that foreign labor migration helps promote
national economic growth, eases the pressure of unemployment, brings in much-needed
foreign exchange through remittances and increases consumption, savings and investment
at both the household and macro levels.
The Governments of Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka have devised a legal
framework encouraging their citizens to send foreign remittances into their countries of
origin. Generally, the non-resident citizens of these countries are granted the following
facilities, among others: a) maintenance of bank accounts in both foreign and local
currencies without tax implications; b) investments in securities/shares, and deposits with
local firms/companies; and c) investments in immovable properties in the respective
countries.
Because of these and other facilities provided to their respective non-resident citizens,
these countries have been able to attract enormous remittances from their respective non-
resident citizens. A case in point is India where it was the largest recipient in 2006 with
$24.5 billion, followed by Mexico at $24.2 billion and China with $21bn.11
Migrant workers, particularly from India and Pakistan, have introduced products,
especially food items, in the host countries. These products are now regularly exported to
these countries and have become a permanent source of revenue for local exporters.
The Government of India has devised better incentives for its expatriates abroad to send
and invest money in India’s growing economy. It has also eased regulations and controls,
and eliminated the black-market premium on the rupee and has created convenient
remittances services. The Indian and international banks have systematically shifted some
remittances from the informal “hawala” channels to formal channels. Indians abroad have
also responded to several attractive deposit schemes and bonds offered at home.
To attract investment from remittances, different types of bonds have been issued by the
Government of Bangladesh. These include Wage Earners' Development Bond, US Dollar
Investment Bond and US Dollar Premium Bond.12
In Sri Lanka, on the other hand, the Government has attempted to encourage investment
and long-term financial planning by return migrant workers by offering different types of
credit schemes. The credit schemes do not focus solely on investment but also cater to
other identified needs of migrant workers, making them more realistic in application.
Most of the South Asian Governments have established special institutions such as
migrant workers welfare funds and appointed community welfare officers/attaché in
embassies in the receiving countries to promote and protect the interest of migrant
workers.
11
These data are taken from Yee (2007) based on a report from the International Fund for Agricultural
Development (IFAD) and the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB).
12
For details on the functioning of these bonds, refer to IOM (date not given).
8
V. NEPAL'S EXPERIENCES
While Nepal has a long tradition of overseas employment, other factors have contributed
to an increase in labor migration in recent years. Starting in the early 19th century,
Nepalese have served in various armies in pre-colonial and colonial India. This tradition
continues and Nepalese are employed in the Indian and British armed forces. Earnings
and pensions from these soldiers form a sizeable portion of remittances. However, with
rapid population and labor force expansion and inadequate growth, the absorptive
capacity of the domestic economy has been stretched. With limited arable land,
landlessness is pervasive and the number of landless households has steadily increased in
the agricultural sector. In the nonagricultural sector, the slowdown in growth, especially
since 2000/01, due to the insurgency and exogenous shocks has further retarded the pace
of employment creation. The armed conflict has also created difficult living and security
conditions, especially in the rural areas.13
India has been a traditional destination for Nepalese migrants. The main reasons for this
are geographical proximity, historical and cultural links, and a large and open porous
border. The 1950 Treaty of Peace and Friendship between India and Nepal formalized
free border movement of people. The bulk of these migrants are employed in the private,
informal sector. These migrants hold semi-skilled and unskilled jobs in restaurants and
factories or are employed as domestic workers, security guards, and maids. However, the
lion's share of the remittances from India are not recorded in the BOP as they are brought
in by the migrants themselves or sent through relatives and friends.
An increasingly larger share of remittances now comes from countries other than India,
reflecting changing migration patterns and higher earnings in these locations. Moreover,
the composition of skills of the labor flows is different among these destinations. While
migrants to the Middle East are employed mostly as security personnel, chauffeurs, and
construction workers, the demand from South East Asian countries is more for
employment in industrial enterprises. Monthly earnings for these workers are higher than
those in India.
The analysis pertaining to the impact of remittances can vary depending on the analytical
approach adopted. In Nepal's case, there has been a positive impact of remittances on
poverty as illustrated by the Nepal Living Standards Survey (2003-2004) that showed that
the poverty level, defined in terms of absolute head counts, declined from 42 percent in
1995/96 to 31 percent in 2003/04.14 Other studies have also supported the government’s
findings on the significance of remittances.15
13
This is given in IMF (2006).
14
Besides remittances, the other factors responsible for the decline in poverty included, among others, rise
in agriculture wages, rise in non-agriculture wages and income, rise in urbanization and a drop in
dependency ratio owing to a decline in fertility.
15
For instance according to the Asian Development Bank (ADB), in 2003/04, the economic recovery was
led by remittance-driven consumption expenditure. For details, see ADB (2005).
9
Owing to the widespread conflict in the country until recently, many workers viewed
foreign employment as their only viable option. Again, paucity of economic opportunities
at home and rising employment prospects abroad have also tempted Nepalese to seek
employment abroad.16 On the basis of data provided by the Department of Labor and
Employment Promotion, the number of workers going abroad for employment has
increased by almost 13 percent in 2007/08 as compared to 2006/07.17 With the increase in
the number of workers, the inflow of remittances has also taken an upswing. Remittances
rose from Rs. 47.5 billion in 2001/02 to Rs. 142.7 billion in 2007/08. Moreover, the share
of remittances incoming through the official channel has been going up. For instance,
while in 2001/02, out of total remittance income, just about 27 percent flowed into the
country through the official channel as against 73 percent through the unofficial channel,
in 2007/08, on the other hand, about 91 percent entered through the official channel and
the rest through the unofficial channe
The upsurge in remittances has led to a surplus in the current account, thereby
strengthening the overall balance of payments position. The share of remittances in total
current account receipts, for instance, soared from 33.6 percent in 2001/02 to 50.8
percent in 2007/08 (Table 1).
Table1
Remittances Data
Heading 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08P
Total remittances (in Rs. million) 47536.3 54203.3 58587.6 65541.2 97688.5 100144.8 142682.7
Share of remittances to current a/c
receipts excluding grants(in %) 33.6 37.8 36.6 38.2 46.7 45.3 50.8
Ratio of remittances to GDP (in %) 10.3 11.0 10.9 11.1 14.9 13.8 17.4
P = provisional
Source: Nepal Rastra Bank.
Similarly, the remittances to GDP ratio increased from 10.3 percent in 2001/02 to 17.4
percent in 2007/08. These figures clearly indicate that any significant decline in receipts
from remittances could disturb the structure of the economy from the macro level.
Because of the potential positive effect of remittances, the country has accorded priority
in promoting overseas employment and mobilizing remittances so as to maximize the
benefits from these transfers. In this respect, effective March 29, 2002, the Nepal Rastra
Bank (NRB) had begun granting licenses to private sector organizations interested in
remittance-transfer business. As of mid-July 2008, 29 firms besides the commercial
banks are undertaking money transfer businesses.
16
These causes have been discussed at length by Seddon (2005).
17
The number of persons granted institutional permission for foreign employment was 182,043 and
214,094, respectively, in 2005/06 and 2006/07. The major destinations have been Malaysia, followed by
Qatar, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates.
10
Other policy initiatives have also been undertaken so that remittances could be directed
through the banking channel. For instance, the NRB has arranged to provide 15 paisa per
US dollar as commission to licensed private firms in addition to the prevailing buying
rate. Moreover, permission was granted to manpower agencies, engaged in sending
Nepalese nationals to work overseas, to open foreign currency account in the Nepalese
commercial banks out of the foreign currency income that they earned under the existing
rules.
Policies need to be developed to encourage the use of remittances for promoting longer-
term growth and income security. Nepal needs to formulate policies that (i) send more
remittances through official rather than unofficial channel; (ii) increase the levels of
remittances by encouraging migrants to hold their savings in financial assets in the
country rather than holding them abroad (or spending their savings on consumer goods);
or (iii) encourage migrants to become investor in productive assets in the country. 18
A favorable interest rate policy, a market-determined and realistic exchange rate and
limited restrictions on withdrawals are also important. In building these products,
policymakers should keep in mind that migrants and their families form a diverse group,
ranging from white-collar workers to the illiterate and poor.
18
Elsewhere, governments of labor-exporting countries have introduced a variety of schemes with these
policy objectives in mind, namely (a) repatriable foreign exchange accounts to encourage the greater use of
official channels, (b) foreign currency denominated bonds to encourage more use of financial assets in the
home country, and (c) self-employment investment schemes to stimulate more direct investment in
productive assets.
11
marketing assistance for micro and small entrepreneurs to facilitate matching of funds for
development projects.
The banking system of Nepal has not been adequately developed in terms of coverage
and efficiency. Many villages of rural Nepal are devoid of any financial institution and a
large proportion of the people in these regions are illiterate and ignorant about the
operations of the banking system. Furthermore, the absence of transport facilities has
isolated such villages from other parts of the country. Against this perspective, it is
crucial to expand the banking network in the rural areas. At the same time, as it might not
be economically feasible for the commercial banks to establish their branches in the
remote areas, commercial banks can be encouraged to initiate collaboration with
cooperatives and other rural institutions in those areas for conducting the remittance
business.
One of the biggest hurdles to private sector growth in Nepal is the paucity of credit for
seed capital and working capital for enterprises, especially small and medium-size
enterprises. Pooled remittances can provide such credit, thus supporting the growth of
enterprises. Although residing abroad, many Nepalese migrants want to invest in
enterprises in their home country, either to employ family members at home, earn
additional income or to prepare for their retirement or eventual return. These types of
investments on the part of remitters can lower poverty by expanding businesses in their
home communities and generating jobs and income that would not otherwise exist.
Pre-departure training for labor migrants is not only important to reduce the human and
economic costs of migration; it can also be a powerful tool in raising awareness about
remittance methods and utilization. The involvement of a variety of actors (migrant
associations, NGOs and governmental bodies) is instrumental in the success of these
initiatives.
The government must understand that remittances cannot be a panacea to our structural
economic problems. Remittances do not automatically contribute to national
development. To carry out effective and efficient public policies to channel remittances
into productive projects, the government has to look at what motivate Nepalis to send
money home particularly beyond individual family remittances, and craft its policies to
take advantage of it. The government must therefore use its embassies abroad to foster a
sense of solidarity and community identity among Nepalis abroad.
19
For further elaboration, see Agunias, op.cit.
12
The workers will be inclined to use the banking channel only if the services provided are
quick, reliable and efficient. Hence, new technologies that are constantly changing in the
international banking system should be introduced in order to make the payment process
quick, simple and hassle-free. Help desk, just relating to remittances and workers seeking
loans for going overseas for employment, should be set up at all the financial institutions.
A national policy of remittances could build up the framework under which the
endeavors of the NRB, Department of Labor and Employment Promotion, poverty
alleviation agencies and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, could be aggregated and
coordinated towards the attainment of common goals. Again, a national policy on
remittances could support in placing the topic of remittances on the national development
agenda, particularly in a country like Nepal where remittances to GDP ratio is quite high.
A critical challenge facing Nepal with huge remittance receipts is to find ways in which
these payments can be used to benefit the wider society. The governments of Brazil,
Mexico, India and the Philippines had employed an array of inducements to attract these
funds to specific saving and investment vehicles, including migrant pension plans,
preferential loans or grants for business ventures, preferential access to capital goods and
raw material imports for recent returnees, and investment and advisory services for
business start-ups.20 Nepal can learn a great deal from the experiences of these countries.
VII. CONCLUSIONS
Remittance flows are a crucial policy concern since they are very large in size, are
relatively stable and provide a cushion for economic shocks, and are unique in providing
direct benefits for households.
Bringing recipient households into the formal financial sector is only the first step in
using remittances more effectively. Country surveys indicate that, although households
typically spend a large proportion of their remittances, their propensity to save can be as
high as 40 percent. For policymakers in Nepal, the challenge is to channel these savings
into productive uses.
The bottom line, however, is that remittances cannot be a substitute for a sustained,
domestically engineered development effort. Moreover, large-scale migration may hurt
domestic labor markets in specific sectors, particularly when those leaving are mostly
skilled workers. Still, migrant transfers can help ease the immediate budget constraints of
recipient households.
20
These mechanisms of different countries are cited in Sander (2003).
13
Selected References
Agunias, Dovelyn Rannveig. 2006. "Remittances and Development: Trends, Impacts and
Policy Options." Available in: http://www.migrationpolicy.org/pubs/
mig_dev_lit_review_091406.pdf
Bugamelli, Matteo, and Francesco Paterno. 2006 “Workers' Remittances and Current
Account Reversals. ” Bank of Italy Economic Research Paper No. 573 (Rome: Bank of
Italy).
Carling, Jorgen. 2004. “Policy Options for Increasing the Benefits of Remittances.” Paper
presented at the Ninth International Metropolis Conference, Geneva, September 27-
October 1.
Central Bureau of Statistics. 2004. Nepal Living Standards Survey 2003/04. Kathmandu:
Central Bureau of Statistics.
El-Sakka, M.I.T. 1997. “Migration Remittances: Policy Options of Host Countries and
Countries of Origin.” Available in: http://www.cba.edu.kw/elsakka
International Monetary Fund. 1993. Balance of Payments Manual Fifth Edition.
Washington, D.C: IMF.
IMF. 2006. "Nepal: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix." IMF Country Report No.
06/45. February.
International Organization for Migration. Date Not Given. "Compendium of Policies and
Practices of the Least Developed Countries in the Area of Remittances." Available in:
http://www.un.org/special-rep/ohrlls/ldc/Remittances/compendium.pdf
Ratha, Dilip, Sanket Mohapatra and Zhimei Xu (2008). "Outlook for Remittance Flows
2008-2010: Growth Expected to Moderate Significantly, But Flows to Remain Resilient."
Migration and Development Brief 8, November 11.
14
Seddon, David. 2005. “Nepal’s Dependence in Exporting Labor.” Available in:
http://www.migrationinformation.org/Profiles/display
World Bank. 2006a. “Remittance Trends 2006.” Migration and Development Brief 2.
Available in: http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTPROSPECTS/Resources/334934-
1110315015165/MigrationDevelopmentBriefingNov2006.pdf.
Yee, Amy. 2007. "Engaging India Vital Remittances." The Financial Times, December 7.
Available in http://www.rediff.com/money/2007/dec/07remit.htm
15