Scribd
Upload
71 views4 pages

Hasil Model Solow Dan Kardon

The document reports the results of an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model for long-run economic growth (LNGDRP) using data from 2005 to 2017. The selected ARDL model includes lags of LNGDRP, mining output (LNMN), energy use (LNEM), and capital investment (LNINV). Unit root tests confirm the variables are stationary. The long-run coefficients show LNGDRP is positively impacted by LNMN, LNEM, and LNINV. The error correction term indicates long-run equilibrium can be restored in the short-run.

Uploaded by

Kurniawan Arika
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
71 views4 pages

Hasil Model Solow Dan Kardon

The document reports the results of an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model for long-run economic growth (LNGDRP) using data from 2005 to 2017. The selected ARDL model includes lags of LNGDRP, mining output (LNMN), energy use (LNEM), and capital investment (LNINV). Unit root tests confirm the variables are stationary. The long-run coefficients show LNGDRP is positively impacted by LNMN, LNEM, and LNINV. The error correction term indicates long-run equilibrium can be restored in the short-run.

Uploaded by

Kurniawan Arika
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 4

Dependent Variable: LNGDRP

Method: ARDL
Date: 12/12/19 Time: 21:40
Sample (adjusted): 2005 2017
Included observations: 13 after adjustments
Maximum dependent lags: 2 (Automatic selection)
Model selection method: Akaike info criterion (AIC)
Dynamic regressors (2 lags, automatic): LNMN LNEM LNINV
Fixed regressors: C
Number of models evalulated: 54
Selected Model: ARDL(1, 1, 1, 1)

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.*

LNGDRP(-1) 0.953169 0.061103 15.59939 0.0408


LNGDRP(-2) 48.47714 2.275323 21.30560 0.0299
LNMN -8.825600 0.409391 -21.55790 0.0295
LNMN(-1) 2.198355 0.171671 12.80561 0.0496
LNMN(-2) 0.367738 0.112756 3.261369 0.1894
LNEM -15.92718 1.290370 -12.34311 0.0515
LNEM(-1) -26.46687 1.372705 -19.28082 0.0330
LNEM(-2) 31.59987 1.539765 20.52252 0.0310
LNINV 0.047387 0.037183 1.274424 0.4236
LNINV(-1) 0.988556 0.044627 22.15147 0.0287
LNINV(-2) -1.888640 0.089998 -20.98540 0.0303
C -659.2466 28.21505 -23.36507 0.0272

R-squared 0.999705 Mean dependent var 19.09289


Adjusted R-squared 0.996455 S.D. dependent var 1.884671
S.E. of regression 0.112213 Akaike info criterion -2.255636
Sum squared resid 0.012592 Schwarz criterion -1.734144
Log likelihood 26.66164 Hannan-Quinn criter. -2.362826
F-statistic 307.6429 Durbin-Watson stat 3.063290
Prob(F-statistic) 0.044443

*Note: p-values and any subsequent tests do not account for model
selection.
Efek Jangka Panjang
Dependent Variable: D(LNGDRP)
Selected Model: ARDL(1, 1, 1, 1)
Case 2: Restricted Constant and No Trend
Date: 12/12/19 Time: 21:42
Sample: 2001 2017
Included observations: 13

Conditional Error Correction Regression

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C -659.2466 28.21505 -23.36507 0.0272


LNGDRP(-1)* 48.43031 2.313299 20.93560 0.0304
LNMN(-1) -6.259508 0.296617 -21.10301 0.0301
LNEM(-1) -10.79418 1.026929 -10.51113 0.0604
LNINV(-1) -0.852697 0.088025 -9.686955 0.0655
D(LNGDRP(-1)) -48.47714 2.275324 -21.30560 0.0299
D(LNMN) -8.825600 0.409391 -21.55790 0.0295
D(LNMN(-1)) -0.367738 0.112756 -3.261369 0.1894
D(LNEM) -15.92718 1.290370 -12.34310 0.0515
D(LNEM(-1)) -31.59987 1.539765 -20.52252 0.0310
D(LNINV) 0.047387 0.037183 1.274424 0.4236
D(LNINV(-1)) 1.888640 0.089998 20.98540 0.0303

* p-value incompatible with t-Bounds distribution.

Levels Equation
Case 2: Restricted Constant and No Trend

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

LNMN 0.129248 0.002201 58.71202 0.0108


LNEM 0.222881 0.013180 16.91112 0.0376
LNINV 0.017607 0.001601 11.00024 0.0577
C 13.61227 0.123125 110.5565 0.0058

EC = LNGDRP - (0.1292*LNMN + 0.2229*LNEM + 0.0176*LNINV + 13.6123 )

F-Bounds Test Null Hypothesis: No levels relationship

Test Statistic Value Signif. I(0) I(1)

Asymptotic:
n=1000
F-statistic 204.0460 10% 2.37 3.2
k 3 5% 2.79 3.67
2.5% 3.15 4.08
1% 3.65 4.66

Finite Sample:
Actual Sample Size 13 n=35
10% 2.618 3.532
5% 3.164 4.194
1% 4.428 5.816
Finite Sample:
n=30
10% 2.676 3.586
5% 3.272 4.306
1% 4.614 5.966

Unit Root Test

Null Hypothesis: Unit root (individual unit root process)


Series: LNGDRP, LNMN, LNEM, LNINV
Date: 12/12/19 Time: 21:47
Sample: 2001 2017
Exogenous variables: Individual effects
User-specified maximum lags
Automatic lag length selection based on SIC: 0 to 2
Total number of observations: 56
Cross-sections included: 4

Method Statistic Prob.**


-
Im, Pesaran and Shin W-stat 4.98654 0.0000

** Probabilities are computed assuming asympotic normality

Intermediate ADF test results

Max
Series t-Stat Prob. E(t) E(Var) Lag Lag Obs
D(LNGDRP) -3.9045 0.0111 -1.514 0.923 0 3 15
D(LNMN) -3.7911 0.0137 -1.514 0.923 0 3 15
D(LNEM) -2.6723 0.1015 -1.514 0.923 0 3 15
D(LNINV) -5.6300 0.0012 -1.333 1.352 2 3 11

Average -3.9995 -1.469 1.030

Null Hypothesis: Unit root (individual unit root process)


Series: LNGDRP, LNMN, LNEM, LNINV
Date: 12/12/19 Time: 21:46
Sample: 2001 2017
Exogenous variables: Individual effects
User-specified maximum lags
Automatic lag length selection based on SIC: 0 to 3
Total number of observations: 50
Cross-sections included: 4

Method Statistic Prob.**


-
Im, Pesaran and Shin W-stat 7.05822 0.0000

** Probabilities are computed assuming asympotic normality

Intermediate ADF test results

Max
Series t-Stat Prob. E(t) E(Var) Lag Lag Obs
D(LNGDRP,2) -7.2880 0.0000 -1.512 0.952 0 3 14
D(LNMN,2) -6.0062 0.0003 -1.512 0.952 0 3 14
D(LNEM,2) -5.1383 0.0017 -1.497 1.109 1 3 13
D(LNINV,2) -3.1480 0.0586 -1.356 1.937 3 3 9

Average -5.3952 -1.469 1.237

Warning: for some series the expected mean and variance for the given lag
and observation are not covered in IPS paper

You might also like

pFad - Phonifier reborn

Pfad - The Proxy pFad of © 2024 Garber Painting. All rights reserved.

Note: This service is not intended for secure transactions such as banking, social media, email, or purchasing. Use at your own risk. We assume no liability whatsoever for broken pages.


Alternative Proxies:

Alternative Proxy

pFad Proxy

pFad v3 Proxy

pFad v4 Proxy